On Wed, Jan 29, 2003 at 07:41 -0500, Mark Weaver wrote:
>
> And what do you imagine those consequences to be if/when america goes to
> war against Iraq?
That's an easy one, listen to all the analysts on tv. They are all
telling the same.
There are 2 possible ways the war may turn:
1. What Mr. Bush and most military men think, a short trip to the
beach, a little Saddam-bashing and back to the States again. All this
timed to the prime time of the major tv stations.
Consequences:
USA and Mr. Bush will keep their face.
A real danger to the world as a whole is eliminated.
Stocks will go up because the world second largest oil reserves are
under control and a small successful war always boosts industry.
USA can place someone of their liking in charge of Iraq (and hope it
will turn out better than when they helped Saddam to the top or when
they helped Bin Laden to fight the Russians.
But I doubt that will be the case this time. Saddam may be a madman
but he is not dumb and he is able to learn. He will not be the same as
in Desert Storm.
2. A long and costly fight.
Consequences:
Lots of killed people on both sides.
An imminent and present danger to the whole world because with his
back to the wall Saddam will not hesitate to deploy those weapons of
mass destruction he is accused to have.
Lost ressources. Saddam will not hesitate to destroy the oil fields
before they fall to the enemy (remember the burning oil fields in
Kuweit). This will make the oil prices explode. This again will have
very bad influences on the prices of everything for sale on earth and
so it will influence your and my daily life.
Stocks will go down to the bottom because of the oil prices which will
influence also all industrial activities. Nobody will invest one dime
in those times. A worldwide recession will take place, and I mean a
real recession, not that small down we have now.
You could even now witness the negative influence of the threat of war
on the stoch market.
This list is far from complete.
All these consequences are logical and they will not affect the USA
but the whole world.
If you doubt this list, think it through, it's quite easy.
This has nothing to do with painting black walls, it's reality and far
from pessimistic.
wobo
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