At 08:34 14/11/2003 -0500, you wrote:
Hi, Keith,
As always, thanks for the stimulating and thoughtful posts.
I do my best. If it wasn't so tragic, Iraq and Bush's dilemma make for the most fascinating political problem I can ever recall in my lifetime. Or perhaps I'm in my dotage!
So....what non-US currency do you think will do best against the US$?
I would guess that any strong currency would be a good bet against the dollar if it starts to slide -- the Euro, the Yen, the Swiss Franc. (The Euro most of all -- less manipulable than the others.) If I were a serious speculator, I would put my money into gold, gold shares or the South African Rand (which would surely bounce up if the dollar went down). Some 18 months ago, Steve Kurtz and I debated the merits of gold on FW List, and he advised buying gold. I chickened out, but if I'm correct I think it has gone up around 30% since then.
Keith
Cheers,
Lawry
> -----Original Message-----
> From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]On Behalf Of Keith Hudson
> Sent: Fri, November 14, 2003 3:25 AM
> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Subject: [Futurework] The big slide?
>
>
> It is possible that the events in Iraq are the cause of the weaker dollar
> that has occurred in the last day or two and that this is the
> beginning of
> a big slide -- much overdue, of course, in view of the trillion dollar
> trade deficit. If it continues, then this will cause higher prices to the
> American consumer for those items that are imported and this will occur
> long before American business can take up the slack. Greenspan might feel
> obliged to raise interest rates in order to prevent too steep a slide in
> the value of the dollar and this could then trip off the beginning of the
> personal credit card debt crunch -- again long overdue and in need of
> correction. We could now be in for bad times.
>
> Keith Hudson
> Keith Hudson, Bath, England, <www.evolutionary-economics.org>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Futurework mailing list
> [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
>
Keith Hudson, Bath, England, <www.evolutionary-economics.org>
