On Tue, Feb 11, 2003 at 09:25:24AM +0100, Kurt Erik Lindqvist wrote:
> 
> 1) Address space shortage
> 2a) No scalable PI solution
> 2b) No scalable IDR solution
> 
> I said it before and I will say it again, without a solution to 2a, no 
> enterprises will go to IPv6, with no enterprises on IPv6 there are no 
> revenues for the ISPs in IPv6, with no revenue from IPv6 the ISPs will 
> not go to IPv6. Just because I can reach a webpage over IPv6 doesn't 
> make the web-page more interesting. If it isn't more interesting I 
> can't charge extra for it. Going to IPv6 will cost the ISPs. Sorry. It 
> doesn't work out. We need to progress on multi6 if this is to take off. 

Yes, but not for all networks.  I appreciate many people don't view the
academic research networks as commercial networks, but there is a large
potential IPv6 user base in that community for whom address stability has
been available through pre-CIDR allocations.  In the UK example, the 200
or so universities will go from 160 IPv4 (PI) prefixes to 1 single IPv6
(PA) prefix, but the provider being the non-commercial "independent" NREN 
makes the address space in effect PI (JANET has a /32 allocation).  Each
of the 25-30 European NRENs are likely to be in a similar position, so
you could see 25-30 SubTLA's replacing (well, living alongside :) around 
3,000 IPv4 prefixes.  Behind those 25-30 SubTLAs are maybe 30 million staff
and students at the universities.

Well, that's one view.  Many regional networks may seek to multihome.  Some
universities might seek SubTLA prefixes (many obtained pTLA space, and some
are LIR's for the benefit of IPv4 multihoming, but multihoming to universities
isn't common because they're tied in, for better or worse, richer or poorer,
to the NREN service).

I think multihoming is important in the shorter term for a number of classes
of networks, including some large enterprises.  IPv6 multihoming for home
networks is further off, and is the point at which you would be looking at
the "1 billion multihomers" scenario.  But for some (many?) users/networks,
multihoming isn't critical to adopt IPv6.

Tim
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