On 6/9/23 16:12, Saku Ytti wrote:
I expect many people in this list have no need for more performance
than single Trio YT in any pop at all, yet they need ports. And they
are not adequately addressed by vendors. But they do need the deep
features of NPU.
This.
There is sufficient performance in Trio today (even a single Trio chip
on the board) that people are willing to take an oversubscribed box or
line card because in real life, they will run out of ports long before
they run out of aggregate forwarding capacity.
The MX204, even though it's a pizza box, is a good example of how it
could do with 8x 100Gbps ports, even though Trio on it will only forward
400Gbps. Most use-cases will require another MX204 chassis, just for
ports, before the existing one has hit anywhere close to capacity.
Really, folk are just chasing the Trio capability, otherwise they'd have
long solved their port-count problems by choosing any Broadcom-based box
on the market. Juniper know this, and they are using it against their
customers, knowingly or otherwise. Cisco was good at this back in the
day, over-subscribing line cards on their switches and routers. Juniper
have always been a little more purist, but the market can't handle it
because the rate of traffic growth is being out-paced by what a single
Trio chip can do for a couple of ports, in the edge.
I keep hoping that someone is so disruptive that they take the
nvidia/gpu approach to npu. That is, you can buy Trio PCI from newegg
for 2 grand, and can program it as you wish. I think this market
remains unidentified and even adjusting to cannibalization would
increase market size.
I can't understand why JNPR is not trying this, they've lost for 20
years to inflation in valuation, what do they have to lose?
Well, the story is that Cisco are doing this with Meta and Microsoft on
their C8000 platform, and apparently, doing billions of US$ in business
on the back of that.
Mark.
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