On Mon, 05 Sep 2005 05:46:02 -0600, Bill Anderson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
>I did some digging into the progress of Katrina. Here is a link followed >by a summary. > >http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,168413,00.html There sure are a lot of things missing out of that timeline. For example, they neglect to mention that the governor of LA declared a SoE a full day before the governor of Mississippi declared the same. Looks like a politically biased timeline to me..... nothing new for FOX News. <snip> >And now a few comments on the above reported timeline. > >First, the declaration of SoE and disaster areas. After years of >governments doing this in advance, the effect has worn off. When we see >such statements made due to grasshopper infestations, it kinda makes you >go "Oh yeah another declaration. So what's for dinner honey?" It was also done for the four hurricanes that hit Florida last year. Nobody shrugged -those- warnings off as the government 'crying wolf'. >Next, when the warning for N.O. was issued, she was a cat 3. She was a Cat 3 that had already suprised Florida resulting in 11 deaths.... as a Cat 1! Also, because of its slow turn and the warm waters in the gulf, the NWS had predicted that the storm would increase in intensity and make landfall as a Cat 4 or 5. And just 14 hours before landfall the Hurricane Center at Slidell, LA issued an uncharacteristically subjective report that this storm was going to be the "worst case scenario" (yes, they used those exact words). > A lot of >people in that area have weathered those before. Yep. Betsy in 1965, which left half the city flooded and 60,000 homeless. And, more recently, Andrew in 1992. But the history of devastating hurricanes in that area goes back all the way to 1927. > Second, the evac >recommendation was for those in low lying areas. Now, personally I >consider the whole damned area low lying. However, the residents do not. I suppose that's why hundreds of thousands of people heeded the warnings and -did- evacuate, huh? >And I have confirmed that the French Quarter is indeed one of the >highest points of the city/area. So add this up: >* You've weathered these before >* It's only a cat 3 >* You don't live in a low lying area You are missing a few points: * The area has a long history of devastating floods caused by hurricanes * Part of the city is -below- sea level * The city of NO is surrounded by three major bodies of water * The water is held back by levees that have failed in the past * Even when it was a Cat 3, the storm was predicted to have a storm surge that could breach the levees. >Do you leave? Not suprisingly, a significant portion do not. Yet a significant portion..... in fact, MOST residents.... DID leave. Those who couldn't, didn't. >Now put yourself in the shoes of the government. You are prepped for a >cat 4 (and in some laces a cat4). You've taken cat 3s before, several >times. What disaster response to you prepare for? Most likely a cat 3. Putting yourself "in the shoes of the government", you knew decades in advance as to the possible devastation of any significant hurricane to hit the area. History has proven that it can be catastrauphic. Add to that the NWS recent predictions as to the increased frequency of such storms, poor management by both the state and the federal government of the surrounding wetlands, and the economic impact of such a storm in today's economy. Put it all together and you have a recipe for a major disaster. The problem is that everyone was acting on assumptions and nobody bothered to read the recipe. >The next day the storm swells to a full on "I don't need no Vaseline" >cat 5 hurricane. So what do you do? You order mandatory evacs for the >remaining ~15-20%, set up what you can in the little time you have, and >pray for the best. the storm lands in less than 24 hours. It's probably a good thing that you weren't in charge. >I'm sorry folks but as much as the Libertarian in me would like to, I >don't see any reasonable fault in those actions. Not in the people who >stayed, nor in the people who handled the warnings and evac orders. The people trusted that the state and federal governments were making sound decisions based on information from all available resources. That obviously wasn't the case. The warnings have existed for decades but nobody learned from history. And as the proverb says, "Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it". I'm sure that will take on a new meaning as people will no longer trust the government to make the right decisions. >However, there is one significant action I do take issue with: >Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco says everyone still in New Orleans an >estimated 50,000 to 100,000 people must be evacuated. > >This is after the city is 80-85% flooded. IMO, that's a bit late there >Gov., and not terribly helpful. It is essential. The city is now a breeding ground for dysentery, cholera, plague, yellow fever, malaria, or any other nasty bug that nature has cooked up in recent years. If they don't get those people out of there ASAP there is a very -real- possibility that a disease could be contracted without any symptoms, then spread to the general population -after- evacuation. The sooner they get them out the better. > But still, given the layout of the area, >approximately 90% of people in New Orleans were evacuated prior Kat's >landfall. That is not somethign to be ashamed of given the short >timeline. > >A key thing to remember is the timing. She was a cat 3 until less than >24 hours from (her second) landfall. She went straight to Cat 5 and then >dropped as she hit land. What is not listed clearly in the timeline is >that she shifted course, too. Like I said before, a lot of things are missing from the timeline. In fact, the timeline should start at 1927 instead of August 2005. However, the hurricane -did- stay within the path that was projected by the Hurricane Center shortly after it entered the gulf. ----== Posted via Newsfeeds.Com - Unlimited-Uncensored-Secure Usenet News==---- http://www.newsfeeds.com The #1 Newsgroup Service in the World! 120,000+ Newsgroups ----= East and West-Coast Server Farms - Total Privacy via Encryption =---- _______________________________________________ Libnw mailing list Libnw@immosys.com List info and subscriber options: http://immosys.com/mailman/listinfo/libnw Archives: http://immosys.com/mailman//pipermail/libnw
