On Mon, 2005-09-05 at 18:12 -0700, Frank Gilliland wrote: > On Mon, 05 Sep 2005 05:46:02 -0600, Bill Anderson > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>: > > >I did some digging into the progress of Katrina. Here is a link followed > >by a summary. > > > >http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,168413,00.html > > > There sure are a lot of things missing out of that timeline. For > example, they neglect to mention that the governor of LA declared a > SoE a full day before the governor of Mississippi declared the same. > Looks like a politically biased timeline to me..... nothing new for > FOX News.
A Typical response. everybody but you are politically biased and motivated. Glad to know that you never have any omissions .. wait you do ... Gee maybe they could have left in the Florida part of it? I note you make no comments on that. Tuesday: Tropical Depression is determined Wednesday: Now a Tropical Storm Thursday: BAM! Hello Florida! >From the NY Times (hardly a pro-Bush and/or pro-conservative publication): """ In an unusual manner, the storm kept its swirling shape and retained its strength as it quickly rumbled across the state. """ Most storms cutting over Florida lose strength and shape and normally drop from hurricane status to barely a tropical storm. Katrina did not. but there are other facets. > <snip> > >And now a few comments on the above reported timeline. > > > >First, the declaration of SoE and disaster areas. After years of > >governments doing this in advance, the effect has worn off. When we see > >such statements made due to grasshopper infestations, it kinda makes you > >go "Oh yeah another declaration. So what's for dinner honey?" > > > It was also done for the four hurricanes that hit Florida last year. > Nobody shrugged -those- warnings off as the government 'crying wolf'. Are you saying nobody stayed home? I believe that statement sir would be idiocy. For your failing memory two of the 2004 hurricanes were cat3, one cat2 and one cat1. People generally don't evacuate for cat1s or cat2s. They are minor hurricanes. > >Next, when the warning for N.O. was issued, she was a cat 3. > > > She was a Cat 3 that had already suprised Florida resulting in 11 > deaths.... as a Cat 1! But I thought nobody shrugged off the declarations? How can people get killed if they didn't stay home? Wait, wait here is how they played out as of the 28th: "Hurricane Katrina churned through the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, after cutting a swath through southern Florida and leaving seven people dead. Three people who died in the hurricane were crushed by falling trees. One man lost control of his car and rammed into a tree. Three others drowned, including two who tried to ride out the storm in a houseboat." -- NY Times So, of the 11 two were people trying to ride out the storm *IN A HOUSEBOAT*. If that ain't proof that people were not taking the warnings seriously, well I'm at a loss for words as to what would be. Of the others, three crushed by falling trees. Clearly they didn't leave. One lost control of his car. Honestly this may or may not be hurricane related we don't know for sure. Know who the first three deaths in Louisiana from Katrina were? Three elderly people who died during pre-approach evacuation. They died fo dehydration. > Also, because of its slow turn and the warm > waters in the gulf, the NWS had predicted that the storm would > increase in intensity and make landfall as a Cat 4 or 5. And just 14 > hours before landfall the Hurricane Center at Slidell, LA issued an > uncharacteristically subjective report that this storm was going to be > the "worst case scenario" (yes, they used those exact words). Yup, less than 24 hours prior to landfall. Just as I mentioned. Not two days before. But the timeline is even shorter, see below. > > A lot of > >people in that area have weathered those before. > > > Yep. Betsy in 1965, which left half the city flooded and 60,000 > homeless. And killed 78. What political bias led you leave that out? > And, more recently, Andrew in 1992. But the history of > devastating hurricanes in that area goes back all the way to 1927. Ah an omission. Truth is they go back into the 1800's. A 1865 hurricane took out Dernier island leaving a lone cow as survivor. The island has since remained uninhabited. The rain total at New Orleans reached 13.14". Every house in the town of Abbeville was leveled, including the St. Mary Magdalen Church. Rains from the storm flooded the Mermentau River and destroyed crops along the bottom lands. Area rice fields in Plaquemines parish were under several feet of salt water. Nearly all rice was lost. Orange trees were stripped of their fruit. The steamer Nautilus foundered. The lone survivor cling to a bale of cotton and washed ashore sometime later. Four years later to the day : "another hurricane made landfall in Southeast Louisiana. The Mississippi rose 3 feet during the storm. The old site of Proctorville, now Yscolski, had hardly a house left standing... its lighthouse also leveled. The Bayou St. John lighthouse was destroyed. The Cat Island lighthouse was demolished, along with its keeper's dwelling. The Island was inundated, causing the loss of 300 cows. Storm surges extended eastward along the entire Mississippi coast. The sugarcane crop laid in ruin. Trees were uprooted throughout the Plaquemines and Balize (Pilottown). Up to ten feet of water inundated the region. Crops of rice and corn were entirely ruined. The influence of the storm extended eastward to Pensacola, where it rained 3.03" and a strong gale ensued on the 11th. Over 47 people died...damaged totaled " http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/research/lalate19hu.htm Go 'ave a look. Anyone have any idea how 1 million dollars in 1860 dollars would be today? Well in 1860 they had a million dollar hurricane down there. Further: """ August 18-20th, 1888. This hurricane was considered the "severest and most extensive" to hit Louisiana since the Racer's Storm of 1837. It affected much of northern Gulf coast. In New Orleans, all electric light, telegraph, and phone wires went down that Sunday night. By Monday morning, the storm was at its height. Ninety mile an hour winds rampaged through the city. Almost the entire city was submerged. The Teche also felt the storm. Sugar houses and sheds were blown down. Franklin had many homes with roofs blown off and leveled. Two churches in Morgan city were almost demolished. Local wharves were damaged and the rice crop suffered severely. Much wind damage was noted in Plaquemine, St. James, Donaldsonville, Houma, Convent, and Tigerville (named Gibson a couple weeks later after the senior Louisiana Senator at the time). Rain totals for southern and central Louisiana were commonly 3-4 inches. Produced 7.9" of rain in New Orleans; 14.14" that week. Maurepas had 11.48" of rain during the same period. All this water led to extensive flooding in Mandeville. Rice, sugarcane, and cotton crops were a total loss in some areas of Southeast Louisiana. Grand Coteau lost much of it fruit crop. Several churches were completely destroyed. Steamboats and sail boats alike were driven ashore by the wind and seas, including the steamers Keokuk, W.G. Little, and Laura, which were sunk. Trees were uprooted across the area. Several people perished in the storm. Damages totaled near $2.7 million with the worst occurring in Southeast Louisiana. Half the damage occurred to crops, with a third due to sunk coal in New Orleans harbor. """ October 1-2nd, 1893 2000 people die as a result of another big hurricane in the area. Here is the report: """ An unheralded storm of great violence moved from the Gulf across the southeastern U.S. It devastated about 500 miles of the coastline from Timbalier Bay to Pensacola. Settlements along Lake Borgne, the Lower Mississippi, and the islands along the coast from the Bayou Lafourche east to the Chandeleurs saw the brunt of the hurricane. Landfall was between New Orleans and Port Eads on October 1st. Winds of 100 m.p.h. were estimated at Grand Isle and at Pointe a la Hache. High winds were noted as far west as Abbeville. A schooner 4 miles north of Pascagoula reported a pressure of 28.65". At dusk on the 1st of October, hurricane force winds overspread the coast. By 10 p.m., as winds continued to increase, water began covering coastal islands. A gigantic wave then crashed upon the shore of the north end of Grand Isle, destroying everything in its path. Winds went calm as the eye passed overhead between 11 p.m. and midnight. Winds began again in earnest after midnight, then tapered off by dawn. The storm surge was as high as 15 feet in Louisiana bays, 16 feet at Chandeleur Island. The Barataria Bay lighthouse was almost demolished. The Chandeleur Island lighthouse took on a several foot tilt; waves at times washed over the lantern, which was 50 feet above seas level! Severe damage was dealt to the Lake Borgne lighthouse; its metal roof sheared off by the wind. Two hundred survivors sought refuge at the Port Pontchartrain lighthouse, and its female lightkeeper was publicly recognized. Two thousand people died, 779 from Cheniere Caminanda and 250 at Grand Lake alone. Immense destruction of shipping occurred, islands were stripped of vegetation, and property losses of around $5 million were seen with the storm. Four churches were blown down across the state. In stature, it was considered more than an equal to the 1856 hurricane. One of the survivors was rescued in a makeshift raft off South Pass 8 days later, almost 100 miles from where he began in Cheniere Caminanda. Also of interest, a man named Jean Henriot wrote a poem about the storm. He was a resident of Cheniere Caminanda at the time and left the island to settle in Westwego soon after the storm. The poem was passed on from generation to generation before finally being put in print fully in 1973. Most people local to that section of the state still tell tales of what went on in that storm over a century ago. """ > > Second, the evac > >recommendation was for those in low lying areas. Now, personally I > >consider the whole damned area low lying. However, the residents do not. > > > I suppose that's why hundreds of thousands of people heeded the > warnings and -did- evacuate, huh? They predominantly lived in the low lying areas. What about the tens of thousands who did not? What about the people being interviewed prior to landfall saying they were going to wait it out? Why do feel a need/desire to leave these people out of your considerations? > >And I have confirmed that the French Quarter is indeed one of the > >highest points of the city/area. So add this up: > >* You've weathered these before > >* It's only a cat 3 > >* You don't live in a low lying area > > > You are missing a few points: > > * The area has a long history of devastating floods caused by > hurricanes And in fact *most* of the devastating floods in the area have had nothing to do with hurricanes. MOST of the hurricanes in the area have not had devastating floods. > * Part of the city is -below- sea level Only you would make such an inane statement. I've been continually pointing out that much of the city is BELOW SEA LEVEL. But you miss the exercise entirely. The point is where *YOU* are is not. Not suprisingly, the places that were higher ground saw less evacuation. > * The city of NO is surrounded by three major bodies of water > * The water is held back by levees that have failed in the past And surrounded by levees that more often had *not* failed to prevent a city-wide inundation. > * Even when it was a Cat 3, the storm was predicted to have a storm > surge that could breach the levees. All reasons to not live there in the first place, IMO. But nonetheless YOU missed the point. The point is people CHOSE to stay. Also, the FQ was/is largely NOT underwater. Compare it to getting in a car. * Cars have a long history of killing their occupants * Part of the car leaves you exposed to direct injury from flying debris or other vehicles * While on the road your car will generally be surrounded by many tons of other cars, and you are surrounded by glass that can potentially kill/injure you, not to mention any loose objects being turned into lethal projectiles * Seat belts and air bags have failed in the past * Even at 20MPH you can get killed Do you still get into a/the car? I bet you do! The National Weather service also has noted for years that people are getting complacent with regards to hurricanes just as people on California are to earthquakes. To quote: "The problem is further compounded because 80 to 90 percent of the population now living in hurricane-prone areas have never experienced the core of a "major" hurricane. Many of these people have been through weaker storms. The result is a false impression of a major hurricane's damage potential. This can lead to complacency and delayed actions resulting in injuries and loss of lives." Combine this with the state government declaring states of emergencies over minor hurricanes and you have a recipe for people staying home. This latter cause is due largely to a desire to get federal funding. Declaring the SoE is *primarily* about federal funds. Also, the NEW clearly states that the actual frequency of major (cat3-5) hurricanes is lower than the last three decades. Katrina is only the third Cat 4 to make landfall in LA since the scale was invented. There has been only one Cat 5 to hit LA at all, and only 3 Cat 5s to ever make landfall in the US Gulf Coast since records (and the scale) began. They were: Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 (naming not used yet) Camille: 1960 Andrew: 1992 Between 1970 and 1999 the majority of deaths due to hurricanes were from *inland fresh water flooding*. Storm surge accounted for less than 1%. here, storm surge is the primary cause. Camille, a Cat5, struck the Mississippi gulf coast with 25 foot storm surges. > >Do you leave? Not suprisingly, a significant portion do not. > > > Yet a significant portion..... in fact, MOST residents.... DID leave. > Those who couldn't, didn't. Thank you Captain Obvious. A key factor you refuse to acknowledge is those who chose not to. Not everybody who could leave, did. Indeed, in Florida the towns and cities basically boarded up and many people were literally sitting on the porch watching it roll in. Here are some items for your ponderance: "We call it a vertical evacuation," -- Joseph Fein, owner of the Court of Two Sisters, a French Quarter restaurant. He said they and the citizens were responding to it (the hurricane) as they always do. Go for the taller buildings, get in the middle, and wait it out. This was on the 28th. > >Now put yourself in the shoes of the government. You are prepped for a > >cat 4 (and in some laces a cat4). You've taken cat 3s before, several > >times. What disaster response to you prepare for? Most likely a cat 3. > > > Putting yourself "in the shoes of the government", you knew decades in > advance as to the possible devastation of any significant hurricane to > hit the area. No, you haven't been there for decades, get a grip. None of the current officials have been there for decades. You are operating entirely from hindsight and as such your opinions based on said hindsight are irrelevant. A cat three is a significant hurricane, and they've hit the area for decades without this impact. Katrina was unique in it's characteristics. The storm itself is unprecedented in the last hundred years. See below for details. > History has proven that it can be catastrauphic. Add to > that the NWS recent predictions as to the increased frequency of such > storms, poor management by both the state and the federal government > of the surrounding wetlands, and the economic impact of such a storm > in today's economy. Put it all together and you have a recipe for a > major disaster. The problem is that everyone was acting on assumptions > and nobody bothered to read the recipe. The whole recipe is an assumption. On average, since 1871, a tropical storm or hurricane should be expected somewhere within the state every 1.2 years. A hurricane should make landfall every 2.8 years. As to increasing frequency, the 1980's cyclone strikes to Louisiana totaled 9 (4/5 hurricane/storm). In the 1990's they totaled 5 (3/2). Here are the decadal totals starting with the 1850's: 4,9,9,10,9,9,5,5,10,12,9,5,7,9,5 Those are not assumptions, those are fact as best we have them. What trend if any is there? Frequency is actually irrelevant, it is the intensities that matter. Not counting Katrina LA's top ten rainfalls all fall prior to Betsy. The top ten low pressures (which measure the intensity of the storm) include no storm since 1969. Winds have one entry since 1974 - 1992 at 175MPH. As far as fatalities, prior to Katrina the worst one on record was 1983, with approximately 2000 dead. Number two was 1957 with 526. But something not being stated is what exactly a cat-4 is. These are the Saffir-Simpson categories. They are primarily based on 1 minute sustained wind speeds. Here is a quick table for you: category | storm surge (in feet) =================================== 1 | 3-5 2 | 6-8 3 | 9-12 4 | 13-18 5 | 19+ Katrina was a Cat 4 by the time she made landfall, but had a storm surge of appx. 27 feet. Recall that the levee system in N.O. has 17 foot levees (this is measured above nominal water level, btw). The SPH is roughly equivalent to a Cat-3, but not exactly. It is a collection of factors including wind, rain, and storm surge. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D1.html aslo lists the recommended evac and preparation levels to go along with the SS categories. Here is a snip of Cat3: "Low-lying escape routes inland cut by rising water 3 to 5 hours before hurricane center arrives. Flat terrain 5 feet or less above sea level flooded inland 8 miles or more. Evacuation of low- lying residences within several blocks of shoreline possibly required." This snip points out something I've left out of the discussion so far. Landfall is describes as when the eye touches land. Do not forget the hurricane precedes the eye. You Lidell reference coming 14 hours before landfall means 14 hours before the eye made landfall. This means that several hours prior the hurricane winds and rain were already pounding shorelines. This means there was even less time. Now, there is also the matter of what the NWS was advising and the probabilities they were providing. Your position gets much weaker when these are taken into account. On Saturday the 27th the NWS issued it's latest update (at 10PM Central time that night) which gave Katrina a 3% chance of coming within 75 miles of Buras, LA from then through 7PM Sunday, a 23% chance of it coming w/in that range between 7PM Sunday to 7AM Monday, and a 1% chance of it coming w/in 75 miles of Buras, LA from 7AM to 7PM Monday. Twelve hours earlier it was less than one%, followed by 3% followed by 14%. At 4PM CDT, it was only a 1% chance it would come within 75 miles of Buras before 1PM Sunday, a 15% between 1PM Sun and 1AM Monday, and a6% chance it would reach that range between 1AM to 1PM Monday. She was not yet a Cat4. At 2AM Saturday morning she was a Cat2. At 5AM Saturday morning the following report was made: > KATRINA IS LOCATED WITHIN AN ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT THAT SEEMINGLY > CANNOT GET MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING... PRIMARILY DUE > TO A VERY LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF > MEXICO. So, they are here saying cat3 but not likely to increase. This is 13 hours before she struck land. Five hours later they gave a track ranging from Pensacola Florida to SE Louisiana. That is a pretty wide track, don't you think? They then issued a Hurricane Watch advisory for portions of SE LA, including Metropolitan NO. They also predicted landfall in 48-60 hours. So as of Saturday you've got a Cat3 with a relatively low chance of coming within 75 miles of Buras, LA in the next 48 hours. Sunday morning she picked up speed. Sunday morning at 7AM NWS warned she had reached Cat5 status, and a Hurricane warning in effect for New Orleans. This was less than 12 hours before actual landfall. Here is a part of that issuance: > COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE > LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS > BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE > CENTER MAKES LANDFALL Note that three hours earlier she had been a Cat4. Recall she was a Cat3 12 hours prior. By 1PM CDT Sunday she had sped from 8MPH to 13MPH. By now tropical storm force winds were constant over S. Louisiana including NO, and she was 150 miles to the south. At this time the following warning was issued by NWS: > COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE > LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS > BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE > CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA > COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR > ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. > Again, the time was 1PM Sunday. Interestingly the rainfall expected was 5-10 inches. This is what the levees are built for. Contrary to what the press is reporting (they have a tendency to stick to their incorrect "facts"), it was not flood protection levees that went down. It was flood walls for the shipping lanes. Three flood walls were breached: those along the Industrial Canal, the 17th Street Canal, and the London Avenue Canal. We've all been referring to them as levees (self included) when in fact, they were not part of the actual levee system. Indeed, in fairness to the levees and the flood walls they *DID* withstand the storm surge. It is coming to light (or will be I've got some non-media sources so dunno who has or will report on this if at all) that the cause of the breach was actually the surge from the lake AFTER the storm surge itself had abated. OK hotshot, it is Sunday afternoon. You've got a city that is 80-80% evacuated, and now you are being told that the storm bearing down on you is likely to exceed your storm surge protection by a lot. The storm is 150 miles away and traveling at 13 MPH (and has been gaining speed). Some quick basic math (or a calculator) tells you you've got about 12 hours before she makes landfall. You've already got 50MPH winds blanketing the area, and in approximately 3 hours they will get far worse reaching Hurricane force levels. Basically you've got 3 hours before the hurricane strikes. You've got a small amount of rain predicted, but high storm surges. Higher than your walls can stop. But on the other hand, surges are over quickly and you've got a full on pumping system. Rainwise it's barely a cat 3. In the next several hours you *will* have flooding of your primary escape routes. You've got the President of the US calling and asking you to issue a mandatory evacuation. Yet you've got some of your experts telling you that over a hundred thousand will not be able to leave the city at all before Katrina strikes. You've got thousands of tourists who flew in and have no way out, your interstates are jammed with people still trying to leave (after begin converted to all lanes going outbound!), and you've got thousands or tens of thousands who still don't *want* to leave. What do you do? well if you are the mayor ... you bring attention to what you feel is being under-reported: the impact to oil industry. According to the NY Times: > "The real issue - that I don't think the nation is paying attention to > - is that through the city of New Orleans, through the Gulf of Mexico, > we probably deal with almost a third of the nation's domestic oil that > is produced. And that will most likely be shut down," Mr. Nagin said. As to economic impact, I predict a moderate impact at worst. I'm not alone here either. Total economic loss is being currently predicted in the 100 billion dollar range. In an economy of a few trillion, that is not a major impact. Indeed much of the port activity can be and is being redirected to Houston. Over the last 8 years or so much of the New Orleans/Louisiana energy industry and other large industries have been shifting to Houston. Katrina will accelerate that which was already existing. > >The next day the storm swells to a full on "I don't need no Vaseline" > >cat 5 hurricane. So what do you do? You order mandatory evacs for the > >remaining ~15-20%, set up what you can in the little time you have, and > >pray for the best. the storm lands in less than 24 hours. > > > It's probably a good thing that you weren't in charge. It is certainly a good thing you were not. > >I'm sorry folks but as much as the Libertarian in me would like to, I > >don't see any reasonable fault in those actions. Not in the people who > >stayed, nor in the people who handled the warnings and evac orders. > > > The people trusted that the state and federal governments were making > sound decisions based on information from all available resources. > That obviously wasn't the case. The warnings have existed for decades > but nobody learned from history. And as the proverb says, "Those who > do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it". I'm sure that will > take on a new meaning as people will no longer trust the government to > make the right decisions. Sadly, no they won't. As I pointed out, the levee system was essentially created almost immediately after Betsy hit. > >However, there is one significant action I do take issue with: > >Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco says everyone still in New Orleans — an > >estimated 50,000 to 100,000 people — must be evacuated. > > > >This is after the city is 80-85% flooded. IMO, that's a bit late there > >Gov., and not terribly helpful. > > > It is essential. The city is now a breeding ground for dysentery, > cholera, plague, yellow fever, malaria, or any other nasty bug that > nature has cooked up in recent years. If they don't get those people > out of there ASAP there is a very -real- possibility that a disease > could be contracted without any symptoms, then spread to the general > population -after- evacuation. The sooner they get them out the > better. And what good does a proclamation that ignores reality do? It furthers the problem, and does nothing for the solution. You've got a city that is 85% underwater and you announce everyone has to leave? First, nearly everyone left has no power, no tv, no radio. They are in their attics or on their roof, or out wading through water trying to leave, or are surrounded by water because they are in one of the non-low-lying areas. Just how the hell do you propose they evacuate themselves? > > But still, given the layout of the area, > >approximately 90% of people in New Orleans were evacuated prior Kat's > >landfall. That is not somethign to be ashamed of given the short > >timeline. > > > >A key thing to remember is the timing. She was a cat 3 until less than > >24 hours from (her second) landfall. She went straight to Cat 5 and then > >dropped as she hit land. What is not listed clearly in the timeline is > >that she shifted course, too. > > > Like I said before, a lot of things are missing from the timeline. In > fact, the timeline should start at 1927 instead of August 2005. And what political bias must lead you to start at 1927? The record clearly dates back to the 1700's (actually back to the 1500's adn teh Maya records back a lot further - indeed the term Hurricane is derived from the Mayan term Hunraken or the Carribean Huracen - both storm gods). Here is a report on one from 1722: """ September 22-24th, 1722: This is the first well documented hurricane to have hit Louisiana. It initially moved through the Lesser Antilles on September 11th, later making landfall west of the Mouth of the Mississippi on the 23rd, then passing through Central Louisiana. This same storm most likely re-curved northeast into South Carolina, as they reported 3 days of flooding rains around the 27th. Hurricane force winds lasted 15 hours beginning on the night of the 22nd. Storm surges were reported to be 3 ft. at Bayou St. John and 8 ft. in the Mississippi River. Thirty six huts were destroyed during the storm, which included the area hospital. These buildings were hastily constructed in 1717-18 when New Orleans was initially selected to be the capital of the Louisiana Company. The St. Louis church was destroyed. This storm was responsible for moving the old site of Mobile from 27 miles north of the mouth of the Mobile River to its present day site. Ships were reported to have been sunk in the harbor of New Orleans and areas lakes as well. Three pirogues loaded with fowl, corn, and other goods were lost up towards the Tensas. In 1718, a 3 foot high levee protected New Orleans from both river and tidal overflow. This proved inadequate, as older area settlements used the devastation of New Orleans in the "Great Hurricane of 1722" as final proof of that city's unsuitability as the capital of Louisiana, as it followed a great flood by only 3 years. A "rude little fort" was built in the marshes near the Mouth of the Mississippi, a location discovered by Sieur de la Salle in 1682 and inhabited by 1699. It was named La Balize, French for "The Seamark". In 1721, the first lighthouse-type structure, a wooden pyramid rising 62 feet out of the muck, was constructed. It is considered one of the oldest settlements within the current boundaries of Louisiana (Cipra 132-133). """ Here we even have the reports from back then questioning the viability of New Orleans as the capitol. > > However, the hurricane -did- stay within the path that was projected > by the Hurricane Center shortly after it entered the gulf. The path is necessarily wide, I don't fault the weather people for that. I'm sure most reasonable people will agree that a path ranging from New Orleans to Florida is pretty hard to miss. However, when it comes to rainfall you want to be west of the eye as most rainfall is to the east. Thus, where that eye goes is of primary importance. The closer you are to the eye if on the west side, the more you'll get. Further, something else being left out of the discussion is the size of the waves coming from the gulf. Take a 40 foot wall of water moving in toward the Mississippi and up the levee system. How high does your protection system need to be to prevent that from causing major issues? The levee system around New Orleans is largely aimed at non-storm surge protection since that is the primary threat (Mississippi flooding). As I've said, even if everything was built for a cat 5 hurricane, it still would have failed. I believe the storm surge from Katrina will be the new height record for that area. BTW, I discovered why TX has been prepped for the loss of Galveston. It has happened before. In 1900 "Race's Storm" obliterated Galveston. This enabled Houston to become the port of choice. Around 8,000 lives were lost in this storm, 6000 from Galveston alone. Curiously, this is how Galveston had become the port of choice. Indianaola was destroyed 14 years prior -- it was then the port of choice. This tells me that culturally, Texans learn from past storms. Louisiana clearly doesn't learn much. It will be interesting to see how NO is rebuilt (I think it is a foregone conclusion it will be in some fashion). They lack the natural resources to do what was done in Galveston which BTW was paid for locally, not by the federal government, and largely by private individuals and business. Too many very large buildings are left standing and probably in structurally decent shape to raise the level of the city as was done in Galveston, and not in the least the underlying structure of the area is only getting weaker. About a third of the sinking is directly attributed to the levee system itself. There is no such thing as disaster prevention, only mitigation. Some final food for thought: http://www.snopes.com/politics/katrina/foretold.asp http://www3.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0410/feature5/ Like I said, it is a battle we are destined to lose. Cheers, Bill _______________________________________________ Libnw mailing list Libnw@immosys.com List info and subscriber options: http://immosys.com/mailman/listinfo/libnw Archives: http://immosys.com/mailman//pipermail/libnw
