On Wed, May 20, 2009 at 01:53:21PM +0200, AlunFoto scripsit: > 2009/5/20 Graydon <o...@uniserve.com>: > > On Wed, May 20, 2009 at 08:58:54AM +0200, AlunFoto scripsit: > >> As Stenquist said, timing is everything. > >> IMO the real question is when they launch the hype campaign vs. when > >> they do the production run. They may decide the production volume by > >> gauging the success of the hype campaign. Pentax Germany has > >> advertised for alpha users to receive early copies in exchange for > >> extensive forum activity. Sounds to me like an activity to create > >> demand before supply. > > > > These days, what they're trying to do is move as much of the actual > > purchasing as possible as early in the price curve as they can. > > > > They've made them; the hype is to find out if they need to make them > > again, a little, but mostly to find out how much money they're going to > > make from selling them. > > You have strong opinions, Graydon.
This has occasionally been remarked on, but the above is not so much opinion as a description of standard consumer marketing for electronic devices. I might have believed Pentax was immune to such knowledge, but there's no evidence Hoya is. (And quite a bit that they're not; the various coloured camera bodies, for example.) Some of the components will have inelastic long lead times, up to 16 weeks or more. (Generally because the component producers are booked solid. The recession may be affecting that, but it won't be affecting that *evenly*.) Deciding on a shorter lead time than about 20 weeks how many to build is impractical because of those long lead time items; stockpiling them on spec is expensive. So it's highly unlikely that Pentax has done anything different from the standard consumer electronics pattern; make the smallest bunch that you will have net profit if you sell them all at median price <foo>, which is the price you think you can get. Hype as much as you can to push the median price up as far, and the sold-half time down as far, as you can. If the sold-half time is 1 week, start production again. If the sold-half time is 1 month, hold a meeting to distribute the responsibility for starting production again. It's a standard pattern. And if they're deciding *now* how many to make based on intangible evidences of demand due to internet marketing campaigns, it's not out until late October at the earliest. Which is entirely dreary to contemplate. > Name a date for when it hits the market, then. :-) No idea. -- Graydon -- PDML Pentax-Discuss Mail List PDML@pdml.net http://pdml.net/mailman/listinfo/pdml_pdml.net to UNSUBSCRIBE from the PDML, please visit the link directly above and follow the directions.
