Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

[qef]

Greetings, all --


Nick, further to my observation that William Nordhaus may offer a thoughtful 
contrast, he has written a review of Pope Francis's recent encyclical:


http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2015/oct/08/pope-and-market/


I don't agree with everything Nordhaus (or, for that matter, Pope Francis) 
says, but it gives you an idea of his thinking.


Kindest regards,


- Claiborne -



-Original Message-
From: Nick Thompson 
To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' 
Sent: Wed, Sep 23, 2015 8:38 pm
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics


Glen, 

I think you have nailed one of the origins of science-doubters: the
relation between the nomothetic and the idiographic (which you can google, if
you want to know more).  Briefly, there is no strong reason to believe that a
probabilistic generalization applies to my individual case.  Well, let me put
that round the other way: there is always some reason to believe that it
doesn’t.  So people will disbelieve science if the cost to them of doing so is
low, and the possible gains are great.  So, I think you have nailed one of the
sources of anti-scientific irrationalism.  

Having said that, am I allowed to
say, "Crap!  I wish you didn't have cancer!'

Nick 

Nicholas S.
Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
Clark
University
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

-Original
Message-
From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of
glen
Sent: Wednesday, September 23, 2015 5:51 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied
Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Good climate
change skeptics

On 09/23/2015 02:15 PM, Nick Thompson wrote:
> Diet and Heart
Disease
> Chronic Lyme Disease
> Fibromyalgia
> Diet and Cancer
> Vaccination
and autism
>  and Alzheimer's
> Chronic fatigue syndrome
> Environmental
sensitivity syndrome
>
> First of all, I would like to recruit this list to
identify other issues where at least one of us Global Warming Believers departs
from some other equally strong scientific consensus.

Unfortunately, I don't
know the consensus in most of those categories.  I can wander off what my
oncologist claims about diet and cancer, though.  But my oncologist was trained
as a DO, which puts her credentials at risk in some people's eyes:

   
http://www.quackwatch.org/04ConsumerEducation/QA/osteo.html

So, the fact that
she takes the very conservative position that we just don't know enough about
the ties between diet and (my type of) cancer, is interesting to me.

> AND
then, I would like to have a discussion concerning  why and when we feel
qualified to depart from a scientific consensus.

I feel qualified to depart
from what she tells me because of my personal experience about what has worked
for me during chemo and the course of my experimental drug.  But these
departures do _not_ extend (by induction) to any general population.  I can only
say that what she tried failed and what I tried worked.  Granted, this is not
about diet and cancer so much as diet and cancer intervention.  I can, however,
proceed by deduction and suggest that I'm probably not an entirely unique
subject.  There are probably some generalizations that could be made and I can
explore the space of conclusions to speculate on what those might be.  To be
concrete, here's an example.  About 2 cycles into my treatment, I began to
experience a "welling up" in my throat, especially when bending over or going
upside down on my inversion table.  She tentatively diagnosed it as GERD.  She
put me on proton pump inhibitors and when they didn't work, motility promoters. 
Neither worked.  But I discovered that i nsoluble fiber _did_ work.  She doubts
me to this day.  And, to be honest, I often doubt myself.  Another issue where I
disagree with her is on the subject of fasting.  There are these somewhat
controversial papers that indicate medium-term fasting (more than 48 hours)
assists the therapy in triggering apoptosis (good cell death that minimizes free
toxins) and reducing necrosis (bad cell death where toxins roam a bit more
freely).  She maintains that people on chemo need to eat in order to sustain
themselves in the face of the poison.  I maintain that as long as we're
poisoning ourselves anyway, why not do a proper job of it?


--
⇔
glen


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Complexity Group listserv
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Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

[qef]

Nick --


Probably the most prominent skeptics in recent times have been Bjorn Lomborg of 
the Copenhagen Consensus (he suggests that it's important, but perhaps not as 
important as other matters) and William Nordhaus of Yale (who likewise talks 
about severity and outcomes). Their writings and speeches may offer some 
insight.


I hope it's a productive conversation.


All the best,


- Claiborne Booker -



-Original Message-
From: Owen Densmore 
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Sent: Tue, Sep 22, 2015 3:28 am
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics


 
  
Yeah, I know! But the audience is. :)  
  
   
   
On Mon, Sep 21, 2015 at 4:40 PM, Merle Lefkoff  
wrote:

 
  
He's not a sceptic.  In fact, he's all in on climate change.   
  
 
 
  
   


On Mon, Sep 21, 2015 at 4:07 PM, Owen Densmore   
wrote: 
 
  
   
Pope Francis.   
  
 

   
  
 

   
  
 
 


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Complexity Group listserv
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Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: iClarified - Apple News - Samsung Found Guilty of Copying Apple, Ordered to Pay Over $1 Billion in Damages

[qef]

Intellectual property, at the end of the day, is worth what you're willing to 
spend to defend it. Ideas abound, and the reason to have patents on everything 
(including icon design, the motion of fingers on a surface, or one-click 
purchasing) is, in part, to block others from doing it. This creates path 
dependencies, as Brian Arthur might put it, and can set standards. Espionage 
occurs in many forms - whether Samsung did it deliberately or not is a matter 
for the court to decide, which this ruling did. As noted, Apple didn't win 
everything, and was countersued by Samsung, which suggests that whoever was 
first (in the US, at least) had the better chance of prevailing.

Apple's been clear about protecting its intellectual property and it has the 
resources to do so. Does this stifle or reward innovation? Which is the better 
aim for society and its laws? I believe these are open questions.

- Claiborne -


On Aug 25, 2012, at 21:52, Gillian Densmore gil.densm...@gmail.com wrote:

 Not a lawyer nor an economist-would love to here a explination for how this 
 even came to court.
 Seriusly round cornered icons are patentable? (If I had the money right now 
 i'd consider getting one of the phones apples complaining about) This does 
 strike me as a bad move apple in terms of the parts and the US phone ecology. 
 They were at one point using samsungs american plants to manufacture the 
 i(name here) stuff. I hope they have someone else ready once the current 
 stock runs out. Unless MS pulls out of the portable market- sooner or later 
 woudn't MS decide attempt to compete (more?) with the iphone? What wories and 
 amuses me is that it looks like the only way for MS and Apple to compete with 
 inovations from google  and others is to team up- and when they stop 
 inovating sue them-instead of competing on a even playing field.
 Other peoples thoughts on this?
 
 On Fri, Aug 24, 2012 at 8:34 PM, Owen Densmore o...@backspaces.net wrote:
 This is so weird:
  http://www.iclarified.com/entry/index.php?enid=24064
 .. I think the whole patent thing has gone way to far.  But, hey, maybe they 
 DID steal?
 
-- Owen
 
 
 FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
 Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
 lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
 
 
 FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
 Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
 lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

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Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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Re: [FRIAM] A Good Question - Should the United States join OPEC?

[qef]

Greetings, all --


Gasland is on my list, but in the meantime, I know that natural gas is an 
input into gasoline refining (cracking the hydrocarbons) and with natural gas 
at (artificially?) low prices, our overall cost for refining gasoline in the US 
is competitive worldwide. We're also the biggest user of gasoline (the fuel mix 
in other countries focuses more on diesel), which means we have competitively 
priced refined gasoline in general, and a bit of extra supply in particular at 
the moment. The annual switchover of winter to summer gasoline has been 
complicated by some scheduled maintenance and shut-downs at various refineries, 
leading to a more pronounced annual spike than usual. Oh, and there's the 
Straits of Hormuz thing...


My $0.02,


- Claiborne Booker -



-Original Message-
From: Hugh Trenchard htrench...@shaw.ca
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group friam@redfish.com
Sent: Wed, Feb 29, 2012 10:12 am
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Good Question - Should the United States join OPEC?


Thanks for responding. Of course with natural gas, the first thing comes to my 
mind is Gasland'.  But I suppose if some ot those environmental issues can be 
brought under control, natural gas seems like it will be a big economic driver 
for a while.
  
- Original Message - 
  
From:   Joshua Thorp   
  
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee   Group 
  
Sent: Tuesday, February 28, 2012 8:01   PM
  
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Good Question -   Should the United States join OPEC?
  


This sounds right to me.  There is a lot of finger wagging   at Iran for not 
having domestic capacity for petroleum refinement even though   they are a 
crude exporter.  So I guess capacity works both ways.The other thing I know 
is currently a hot topic is natural gas   production.  I believe the US has 
increased its production quite a bit   lately and is likely to have a lot more 
in the future.  


  

  
  
On Feb 28, 2012, at 8:40 PM, Hugh Trenchard wrote:

  


Just as a brief follow up, it seems to me one of the major factors in this 
is that U.S. refining capacity has increased so that there is less need to 
import refined petroleum products.  I haven't researched this in any detail 
and I stand to be corrected on all my assertions, but it seems to me it's 
not as though there are any new sources of US domestic supply or 
significant increase in technological ability to extract previously hard to 
obtain oil, and likely only marginal reduction in demand. There may be 
some, but my thought is the hype on this is rather misleading.  Again I 
don't have the figures, but my guess is that the vast majority of US crude 
imports likely still come from Canada, Mexico, and other western hemisphere 
nations, which the U.S. refining companies refine and re-sell as petroleum 
products, both for domestic use and to export abroad.

 

The link below shows some of the definitions used in the petroleum/fuels 
industry. From my skeptical standpoint, the hype could mislead the American 
public toward a false sense of security.  I suppose if it stimulates the 
economy, then that's good, but if it gets people guzzling more gas, then 
it's really just a fool's game.

 

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_move_imp_tbldef2.asp

 

From the link: Petroleum products are obtained from the processing of 
crude oil (including lease condensate), natural gas, and other hydrocarbon 
compounds. Petroleum products include unfinished oils, liquefied petroleum 
gases, pentanes plus, aviation gasoline, motor gasoline, naphtha-type jet 
fuel, kerosene-type jet fuel, kerosene, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel 
oil, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, 
petroleum coke, asphalt, road oil, still gas, and miscellaneous products.

  
- Original Message -
  
From: Russ Abbott
  
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity   Coffee Group
  
Cc: Hugh Trenchard
  
Sent: Monday, February 27, 2012 7:47   PM
  
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Good Question -   Should the United States join OPEC?
  


  
We exported more petroleum products, not   more oil. We are still net oil 
importers.
  
  
 
  
-- Russ Abbott
_  
  Professor, Computer Science
California State University, Los Angeles

  Google   voice: 747-999-5105
  
  Google+: https://plus.google.com/114865618166480775623/
  
  vita:  http://sites.google.com/site/russabbott/
_ 





  
On Mon, Feb 27, 2012 at 7:42 PM, Owen Densmore o...@backspaces.net wrote:
  

From 
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/03/us-becomes-net-exporter-o_n_857085.html

  
While   some Americans cut back on driving as gas 

Re: [FRIAM] [EXTERNAL] Re: A Good Question - Should the United States join OPEC?

[qef]

David --


Thanks for your comment. I suppose I should have been both more specific and 
more vague. It is sometimes an input, not an ingredient. Steam cracking, 
which sometimes uses LPG, appears not to be necessary for gasoline production, 
but it is useful for other hydrocarbons.


Please excuse my speculations. I have not worked in a refinery, but rather in 
the refined confines of energy analysis, which may explain some of my inexact 
language. I welcome all corrections. 

- Claiborne -


-Original Message-
From: David Mirly mi...@comcast.net
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group friam@redfish.com
Sent: Wed, Feb 29, 2012 4:10 pm
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] [EXTERNAL] Re: A Good Question - Should the United States 
join OPEC?


True, refineries use an enormous amount of electricity.

But my point was that natural gas is not an ingredient in the production of 
gasoline itself.  

If electricity generated by natural gas and then used by oil refineries was the 
point of the original post then I missed that.

At the refinery I worked at, we built a coke gasification unit to generate our 
own electricity.  40 Mw.


On Feb 29, 2012, at 12:30 PM, Parks, Raymond wrote:

 Heaters/furnaces/burners.
 
 They can be electric, either off-site or co-gen, or they can use waste 
product.  However, natural gas is the most common.
 
 Ray Parks
 
 
 - Original Message -
 From: David Mirly [mailto:mi...@comcast.net]
 Sent: Wednesday, February 29, 2012 12:26 PM
 To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group friam@redfish.com
 Subject: [EXTERNAL] Re: [FRIAM] A Good Question - Should the United States 
join OPEC?
 
 I'm not sure this statement is correct…natural gas is an input into gasoline 
refining (cracking the hydrocarbons)
 
 I don't think natural gas and crude oil refining typically, if ever, 
intersect.  A crude oil refinery (which, of course, makes gasoline among other 
things) has only crude oil as it's main input.  
 
 Now refineries differ from one another greatly in size and capabilities but I 
have never heard of natural gas being used in the gasoline manufacture process.
 
 
 
 
 
 On Feb 29, 2012, at 10:55 AM, q...@aol.com wrote:
 
 Greetings, all --
 
 Gasland is on my list, but in the meantime, I know that natural gas is an 
input into gasoline refining (cracking the hydrocarbons) and with natural gas 
at 
(artificially?) low prices, our overall cost for refining gasoline in the US is 
competitive worldwide. We're also the biggest user of gasoline (the fuel mix in 
other countries focuses more on diesel), which means we have competitively 
priced refined gasoline in general, and a bit of extra supply in particular at 
the moment. The annual switchover of winter to summer gasoline has been 
complicated by some scheduled maintenance and shut-downs at various refineries, 
leading to a more pronounced annual spike than usual. Oh, and there's the 
Straits of Hormuz thing...
 
 My $0.02,
 
 - Claiborne Booker -
 
 
 -Original Message-
 From: Hugh Trenchard htrench...@shaw.ca
 To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group friam@redfish.com
 Sent: Wed, Feb 29, 2012 10:12 am
 Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Good Question - Should the United States join OPEC?
 
 Thanks for responding. Of course with natural gas, the first thing comes to 
my mind is Gasland'.  But I suppose if some ot those environmental issues can 
be brought under control, natural gas seems like it will be a big economic 
driver for a while.
 - Original Message -
 From: Joshua Thorp
 To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
 Sent: Tuesday, February 28, 2012 8:01 PM
 Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Good Question - Should the United States join OPEC?
 
 This sounds right to me.  There is a lot of finger wagging at Iran for not 
having domestic capacity for petroleum refinement even though they are a crude 
exporter.  So I guess capacity works both ways.  The other thing I know is 
currently a hot topic is natural gas production.  I believe the US has 
increased 
its production quite a bit lately and is likely to have a lot more in the 
future.
 
 
 On Feb 28, 2012, at 8:40 PM, Hugh Trenchard wrote:
 
 Just as a brief follow up, it seems to me one of the major factors in this 
is that U.S. refining capacity has increased so that there is less need to 
import refined petroleum products.  I haven't researched this in any detail and 
I stand to be corrected on all my assertions, but it seems to me it's not as 
though there are any new sources of US domestic supply or significant increase 
in technological ability to extract previously hard to obtain oil, and likely 
only marginal reduction in demand. There may be some, but my thought is the 
hype 
on this is rather misleading.  Again I don't have the figures, but my guess is 
that the vast majority of US crude imports likely still come from Canada, 
Mexico, and other western hemisphere nations, which the U.S. refining companies 
refine and re-sell as 

Re: [FRIAM] American Airlines Gets FAA Approval to Use iPad During All Phases of Flight

[qef]

 Hmmm...could this be a spoof as a result of Alec Baldwin's recent contretemps 
aboard an AA flight for refusing to turn off his iPad while the plane was still 
at the gate but the cabin door closed?

- Claiborne -


On Dec 13, 2011, at 22:49, Owen Densmore o...@backspaces.net wrote:

 How Star Trek: http://www.iclarified.com/entry/index.php?enid=18725 
 
 I'm wondering just how useful this is .. is it really better than whatever 
 they did before?  Or is it just a look at me stunt.
 
 Anyway, you'll certainly feel more secure with trek-y pads.
 
-- Owen
 
 FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
 Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
 lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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Re: [FRIAM] Gates discussing new nuclear reactor with China - Yahoo! News

[qef]

Greetings, all --

Bill McKibben probably said it best - there's no such thing as a silver bullet, 
only silver buckshot. We're going to need a variety of sources for energy, and 
we're going to need to be creative about efficiency and conservation. They're 
not mutually exclusive. Indeed, the US could do a lot more in efficiency and 
conservation - the negawatts approach of Amory Lovins and the RMI, for 
example - and continue to fund basic research into other energy options.

A geophysicist I heard recently noted that there are three sources of energy: 
solar radiation (leading to fossil fuels over time), radioactive decay 
(nuclear/geothermal), and the motion of the planet. Of the three, solar 
radiation appears to have the best long-term application. We need to figure out 
how (no small feat, I grant you), and we'll want to use everything including 
the oink, as we say in sausage-making.

- Claiborne -


On Dec 8, 2011, at 13:14, Paul Paryski ppary...@aol.com wrote:

 I disagree, although there is a PC aspect to the discussion about nukes. I 
 believe that there are studies indicating that nukes are not cost effective 
 if all the related costs (construction, mining, transportation of materials, 
 water use, impact studies, decommissioning, etc.) are included. The risk 
 factor is significant; there has been one very serious incident every ten 
 years.  France and Germany have spent billions trying to decommission some of 
 there older plants.
 
 This being said I think that research is important and newer technologies 
 might address some of these problems.  Again nukes are a very complex issues. 
  The esthetics of a nuke plant are really yucky more so than wind turbines.
 
 Coal has very significant environmental issues, as most people are aware.  
 But then slowing the construction of coal plants in China by replacing them 
 with small, more innovative nukes might be a solution.  
 
 Energy conservation and efficiency is a must.  And most people don't realize 
 that the energy-water nexus is very real (every time one opens a faucet 
 energy is being used and every time one turns on a light water is being used 
 in a chain of impacts).
 
 There is no free lunch..
 
 Paul
 
 
 -Original Message-
 From: Owen Densmore o...@backspaces.net
 To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group friam@redfish.com
 Sent: Thu, Dec 8, 2011 5:15 am
 Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Gates discussing new nuclear reactor with China - Yahoo! 
 News
 
 I hate to say it, but I think the nuke issue has turned into a very PC 
 conversation.  They're Just Wrong.  Basically a sort of Science vs Religion 
 discussion.  Saying Nuke's are OK or maybe even Nukes might be OK has all 
 your friends sighing and shaking their heads in dismay.
 
 I guess I'm in the middle.  I basically think we walked from serious nuke 
 energy research, it was too sensitive an issue in terms of safety and we 
 didn't want rogue nations making bombs.
 
 As for where's the science on nukes, Carl sent out a lot of great links.
 
 Here's what may be an urban legend, but I've heard it from more than one 
 source: More radiation is emitted from a coal plant than a nuke reactor!  How 
 is that possible?  Well, coal has uranium and other elements in it.  They are 
 not eliminated during processing so are free to exit into the air during 
 burning.  Nukes, on the other hand, have standards for radiation emission, 
 while coal plants do not.  Odd but I think its true.
 
 The real answer is likely Diversity: just say yes to Solar, Wind, Hydro, 
 Geo thermal, Tidal and so on.  And indeed, as Kim Sorvig has pointed out .. 
 create small ones .. like a neighborhood sized solar installation.  Why?  Get 
 rid of transmission losses and increase local robustness and add to the 
 smart grid.
 
 But boy, windfarms have a lot going against them: they are a visual blight.  
 We used to drive through one in California several times a year commuting to 
 Santa Fe from Palo Alto.
 
-- Owen
 
 On Thu, Dec 8, 2011 at 9:32 AM, Paul Paryski ppary...@aol.com wrote:
 If everything is taken into consideration, the carbon footprint of nukes is 
 really very high, much higher than the alternate forms of energy such as 
 wind, solar, hydroelectric and even some thermal sources. France is paying 
 dearly for its nukes.  One of the innovative sources of energy that is being 
 installed in Europe is slow moving hydro-turbines placed in riverbeds.
 cheers, Paul
 
 
 -Original Message-
 From: Robert Holmes rob...@holmesacosta.com
 To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group friam@redfish.com
 Sent: Wed, Dec 7, 2011 4:29 pm
 Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Gates discussing new nuclear reactor with China - Yahoo! 
 News
 
 Yeah, greenest only if you ignore the environmental/human/dollar costs of 
 getting the uranium out of the ground and then you forget about that whole 
 messy decommissioning component (which usually relies on the assumption that 
 national government 

Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: Google Music - Product Update

[qef]

Glen --

You do mean tinny, as opposed to woody, right?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gwXJsWHupgfeature=youtube_gdata_player


- Claiborne -


On Nov 17, 2011, at 16:50, glen g...@ropella.name wrote:

 Russell Standish wrote circa 11-11-17 12:59 PM:
 I suspect there might be quite a few others like me :)
 
 Yep.  I have gone one step further, though.  I now try to buy all my
 music sans plastic (i.e. online).  But I relish the diversity between my
 collections on various devices.  I make some sullen attempts to sync my
 phone and laptops with my server.  But I'm inconsistent.  And I make no
 serious attempts to acquire all the music I listen to on myspace,
 last.fm, pandora, or anywhere else.
 
 I'm not a musician, but I pretend to understand a little of how many of
 them seem to feel.  With the ability to construct a fresh experience
 anywhere you go, the robotic automation of studio recorded music pales a
 little bit.  It took me awhile after puberty to really appreciate music
 as a contextual whole experience rather than scripted emotion.[1][2]
 When I finally did grok it, I began to appreciate all sorts of things I
 didn't even perceive before.  Even bad music, if I'm there while it's
 being constructed, seems quite fulfilling.
 
 The diversity in my collections across devices feels like a shadowy
 reminder of that understanding.
 
 [1] I remember an event right out of college.  I used to frequent the
 bars in Dallas and Houston that allowed open jams ... anyone with an
 instrument was welcome to walk on stage and play with whoever was up
 there already.  That's where I fell in love with the blues ... or what I
 called the blues, anyway.  I mistakenly told a coworker that I liked the
 blues.  When he came to my apt for a party one time, he accused me: I
 thought you liked the blues?!? after looking through my LPs.  I said,
 Yeah, but only live.  He scoffed and dropped the subject.
 
 [2] I've recently gotten into lots of noise performances.  It's hard
 to describe.  But for me, it's a bit like a good book or riding a
 motorcycle.  There are windows (100 pages, but still far from the end,
 into a good book, or from [2,8] hours on the bike) wherein you're sense
 of context is transformed, made expansive in some weird way.  Noise
 bands do that to me (at least the good ones do).  But I've tried
 listening to pre-recorded noise.  It just ain't the same... it has an
 antiseptic feel... all tin-ny, weak, and unidimensional.  Much of that
 is the attention most noise geeks pay to the venue and pa system, I'm
 sure.  If they had a good production engineer and I used headphones, it
 might be better.
 
 -- 
 glen
 
 
 FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
 Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
 lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org


FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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Re: [FRIAM] The Grand Design, Philosophy is Dead, and Hubris

[qef]

Greetings, all --

And then there's this:

http://www.xkcd.com/435/

- Claiborne -

 

 


 

 

-Original Message-
From: Victoria Hughes victo...@toryhughes.com
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group friam@redfish.com
Sent: Thu, Jul 7, 2011 11:46 pm
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The Grand Design, Philosophy is Dead, and Hubris


http://www.xefer.com/2011/05/wikipedia 
 
On Jul 7, 2011, at 8:03 PM, glen e. p. ropella wrote: 
 
 
 Owen Densmore wrote at 07/07/2011 06:39 PM: 
 Good lord, how?  Is it as empirical?  Does it create as provably  valid 
 models? Or is it simply as worthy an area of study as science? 
 
 Well, as I said, philosophy is engaged with inference and science is 
 not.  Hence, you must use philosophy in order to develop a scientific 
 theory.  Vice versa, science is engaged with proving your theories 
 false.  You can't pursue science without philosophy and you can't  pursue 
 philosophy without science. 
 
 I think the Par you are considering would not include your going to a 
 philosopher for medical treatment, right? 
 
 Yes, actually.  Effective diagnosis requires philosophy.  Similarly, 
 every plumber I've ever paid has a philosophy of plumbing.  Every 
 landscaper I've ever met has a philosophy of landscaping.  Etc.  So,  the 
 simple answer is, yes.  Further, I would NOT go to a doctor who had no 
 philosophy (assuming such a beast exists). 
 
 The unfortunate part of this is that too many people engage in 
 philosophy with no science to eliminate their wacko theories. 
 
 Er, how does Newton deal with negation?  Isn't a clear set of  equations 
 saying what *will* happen?  I mean of course one can say, It Is Not  The 
 Case That F=ma Is Not True, but really, just how can we think of  science 
 limited to negation? 
 
 Science is rooted in testability and falsification.  And even if  you're 
 not a fan of Popper, you should still be able to admit that no 
 untestable, unfalsifiable theory is scientific.  So, science  _at_least_ 
 requires falsification.  Many of Newton's theories were falsifiable,  but 
 not falsified.  Of course, it's also true that many of Newton's  theories 
 were unfalsifiable and unfalsified.  So, some of what Newton did was 
 scientific and some was not, just like the rest of us. 
 
 Don't get me wrong, I have great respect for all the rich topics of 
 investigation we pursue, philosophy included.  However, I don't see  that 
 they are on par in any way other than you can study it. 
 
 You may well have different conceptions of what philosophy is ... and 
 what science is.  That's fine.  But _I_ think they are equally  valuable, 
 equally useful, and equally real.  In pretty much every  quantification 
 I can think of, they are on par ... oh, except that most people  don't do 
 science.  Hence, we see a bit of a back-lash amongst the scientists 
 bemoaning that ... hence silly statements like philosophy is dead. 
 
 -- glen e. p. ropella, 971-222-9095, http://tempusdictum.com 
 
 
  
 FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv 
 Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College 
 lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org 
 
 
 
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv 
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College 
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org 

 

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[FRIAM] African Greys

[qef]

Greetings, all --

Perhaps Doug can keep an eye out for developments of our new feathered 
overlords:

http://gawker.com/5814318/african-grey-parrots-are-going-to-enslave-us-all

Happy Fourth!

- Claiborne -

 

 



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Re: [FRIAM] The Uncertainty Tax

[qef]

Nick --

You may also be familiar with Charles Handy's book The Gods of Management, 
which expands the Apollonians and Dionysians to a couple of other dimensions: 
Zeus, to express the power cult of personality around a founder/visionary, 
and Athena, the idea of a distributed meritocracy based on creativity.

http://www.oup.com/us/catalog/general/subject/Business/Management/?view=usaci=9780195096170

- Claiborne -


On Jun 21, 2011, at 14:03, Nicholas  Thompson nickthomp...@earthlink.net 
wrote:

 our respective lenses
 
 You have your Apollonians and your Dionysians;  Apollonians are your
 planters, your gardeners, your planners.  They can defer pleasure because,
 for them, the future seems assured.  Dionysians are your impulsive types:
 they grab pleasure and excitement now because the future is not assured.
 There are a LOT of Dionysians in the sfComplex.  I think it's because
 advanced technology is so self-undermining and ephemeral.  Opportunities
 come fast and are lost in a wink.  Who can really plan? 
 
 According to one complex sociobiological theory, these two personality types
 are laid down in infancy by the attachment relation.  Were the circumstances
 that surrounding your primary caregiver (usually your mom) stable enough so
 that you could form a firm attachment to her?  Or sufficiently unstable,
 that that attachment was in doubt.  If the first, you are an Apollonian; if
 the latter a Dionysian.  These two kinds of folks really cannot talk to one
 another because their assumptions about the future are so different.  
 
 One of the most alarming features of our current political discourse in the
 united states is the way in which the modern Dionysians (libertarians, etc.)
 have tried to bridge the gap between these two personalities by asserting
 the Dionysian philosophy as a form of planning for the future.  Ayn Rand;
 objectivism.  It's kind of the reverse of the equally horrifying religion
 thing in which people without hope (who SHOULD be Dionysians) are recruited
 for Apollonian values by getting them to believe in an after-life.   Both
 versions I deplore.  They are confusions.  Corruptions of the two basic
 approaches to life, both of which make Darwinian sense in their pure form.  
 
 This sort of email is what happens when you put Thompson beside his
 weed-filled garden and then prevent him from doing anything about it by
 busting his knee.  You probably will hear more from me in this vein. 
 
 Ugh!
 
 Nick 
 
 
 
 -Original Message-
 From: friam-boun...@redfish.com [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf
 Of Richard Harris
 Sent: Tuesday, June 21, 2011 1:02 PM
 To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
 Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The Uncertainty Tax
 
 I know we all have our respective lenses through which we view the world and
 that these lenses determine the explanations to which we are most receptive,
 but if Mr. Friedman is talking about an inability to switch house as a
 reason some people aren't able to take new jobs, it would seem appropriate
 to also mention that many of the houses built during the last bubble were at
 the outer accretion layers of suburbia and not particularly close to any
 jobs. Its as if the people building these houses and the politicians
 maintaining policies that support their build assumed either (1.) oil will
 always be cheap and people wont mind spending 2 hours a day in their cars
 every working day or (2.) these houses wont ultimately be paid for by wages.
 One aggravating factor of the bust a few years ago which never gets as much
 mention as obscure financial instruments or banking malfeasance relates the
 spike in oil prices in 2007 to the initial wave of defaults in these outer
 suburbs. Granted, the people moving into these marginal outer layers were
 probably the most marginal credit risks, but its conceivable that any change
 for the worse could be all the more likely to put them over the edge and
 into default.
 
 I guess my bias is that I attribute too much to resource and energy
 scarcity. When I see an explanation for either the start of our current
 troubles or why we can't see an end, I expect it to ultimately reference
 these things. Although there are a few brief mentions of energy efficiency
 as it relates to productivity gains and as a possible source for new jobs in
 construction, this is pretty paltry when you consider how world energy
 production has basically flatlined, but there are many, many more consumers
 driving up its price (think of all the new cars sold in China each day).
 
 When I think of the U.S., I think we're almost uniquely disadvantaged by how
 spread out our cities have become in the last 60 years and how the only
 option for getting around that has been faithfully and consistently
 supported and encouraged is the personal car.
 
 
 
 On 20 Jun 2011, at 17:08, Owen Densmore wrote:
 
 Tom Friedman's Op Ed
 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/12/opinion/12friedman.html?_r=1partner
 

Re: [FRIAM] A unified theory of literature

[qef]

Greetings, all --

Allow me to quote from Pamela's excellent suggestion of a few months ago that 
we read James  Wood's How Fiction Works. In the initial pages, Wood quotes, 
in turn, Henry James:

There is only one recipe - to care a great deal for the cookery

I believe this suggests that indeed we are likely (bound? in all its meanings) 
to find common themes.

I'm unaware of a companion text on How Fact Works, which could mean that it's 
somehow different if we're talking IRL, as the kids say.

- Claiborne -


On Apr 23, 2011, at 22:31, Leigh Fanning le...@versiera.net wrote:

 Shouldn't Love be on this list, even though it has context as a subset
 of at least comedies and tragedies?
 
 Leigh
 
 On 23 Apr 2011 at 08:40 PM, Jochen Fromm related
 Can everything ever written boiled down to a few fundamental stories?  
 Christopher Booker argues in his book
 Seven Basic Plots: Why We Tell Stories 
 that everything can be classified by just seven plots:
 
 1. Overcoming the monster
 2. Rags to riches
 3. A journey - the quest
 4. A journey - the voyage and return
 5. Comedies
 6. Tragedies
 7. Rebirth 
 
 Or is there just one: there once was a problem, and it got resolved 
 which
 includes all detective and adventure stories - there once was something 
 to find out, and someone did it. What do you think? Can life really be 
 distilled to a few basic stories?
 
 -J.
 
 
 FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
 Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
 lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
 
 
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 Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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Re: [FRIAM] Cult-cha

[qef]

Greetings, all --

At the risk of weighing in too heavily on all of this (SJC graduate), allow me 
to second Pamela's endorsement of Eva Brann. She's worth the price of 
admission, even if you were only discussing the phone book.

Pamela's point about the Seminar and life's experiences is well put. I see the 
Summer Classics curriculum as a chance to relive/revisit some of those 
questions with a different set of people at a different time in my life. I 
suppose it's a bit self-indulgent, in that I often have a point of comparison 
from my undergraduate days, but I've always gotten something out of it

- Claiborne -


On Apr 19, 2011, at 15:24, Nicholas  Thompson nickthomp...@earthlink.net 
wrote:

 Pamela,
 
  
 
 On the other hand, who but a bunch of 70 year olds has the experience to 
 speculate on what (is?)(might have been?!) the good life.  
 
  
 
 And then, when I had written the above, I got to wondering:  I had always 
 assumed that a large a part of the wisdom of participating in such a summer 
 program is the wisdom gained from one’s fellow students in the context of 
 being made to think hard about some difficult questions.  Sounds like perhaps 
 that wasn’t the case for you?
 
  
 
  
 
  
 
 N
 
  
 
 From: friam-boun...@redfish.com [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf 
 Of Pamela McCorduck
 Sent: Tuesday, April 19, 2011 12:52 PM
 To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
 Cc: wedt...@redfish.com
 Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Cult-cha
 
  
 
 Commentary on content and instructors, fwiw:
 
  
 
 Though I don't know all the books, or instructors, I've taken courses from 
 both Eva Brann and Patricia Greer, and both of them are superb--Brann is 
 legendary. I re-read the Alexandria Quartet a few years ago (it came out in 
 the late fifties) and it seemed to me to hold up very well, even though 
 Durrell wrote the last couple of volumes at lightning speed, desperate to get 
 it finished and published. My guess is that this course is already closed, 
 based on the fact that Brann is one of the instructors. Worth trying to get 
 into if it isn't.
 
  
 
 Brann is also co-teaching Mann's Magic Mountain later in the term. Another 
 book I re-read recently, and seminal to 20th century thought. Brann would be 
 a superb guide through it.
 
  
 
 Some of us in this group went through Moby Dick together last summer with 
 great pleasure; I know nothing about these instructors.
 
  
 
 I've re-read David Copperfield in the last decade, and was agog at how very 
 good Dickens is (I speak as writer as well as reader). Know nothing about the 
 instructors.
 
  
 
 Plutarch's Lives was not well-served by the course I took at St. John's 
 (not these instructors). In the first place, they insisted on the Dryden 
 translation. Dryden was a wonderful stylist and surely knew his Greek, but 
 (a) this meant the translation's English prose was slightly archaic, and (b) 
 since Dryden farmed out a lot of the translation to others, more than 
 slightly uneven. 
 
  
 
 In the second place, they taught it as if they were teaching 
 undergraduates--a moment to ask what constitutes the good life. As a 
 70-year-old fellow student said to me, if I don't know by now, Dryden and 
 Plutarch ain't gonna teach me. (He happens to be an example of a very good 
 life well-lived, so I understood his annoyance at this lost opportunity for 
 another approach.)
 
  
 
  
 
 On Apr 19, 2011, at 12:26 PM, Nicholas Thompson wrote:
 
 
 
 
 Dear all,
 
  
 
 Last fall, some of you encouraged me to try and organize a lit’ry thing (12 
 best books, or something of the sort) for our “seminar” series.  I couldn’t 
 pull it off ,but, for the summer, St Johns is offering  seminars that might 
 fill the bill.  Please See,  
 http://www.stjohnscollege.edu/outreach/SF/SC/seminar_schedule.shtml
 
  
 
 Also, I will copy in the info below:
 
  
 
 Nick
 
  
 
 Nicholas S. Thompson
 
 Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
 
 Clark University
 
 http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
 
 http://www.cusf.org
 
  
 
 Summer Classics 2011
 
 Seminar Schedule
 
 Week I
 July 11 - 15
 
 Morning
 
 Lawrence Durrell | The Alexandria Quartet 
 Eva Brann and Patricia Greer
 
 Joseph Conrad | The Secret Agent 
 Michael Peters and Steven Isenberg
 
 Flannery O’Connor | Wise Blood, “The Enduring Chill,” and “Parker’s Back” 
 Eric Salem and Cary Stickney
 
 Sigmund Freud | Introductory Lectures on Psycho-Analysis
 Jan Arsenault and Linda Wiener
 
 Afternoon
 
 Nathaniel Hawthorne on Science, Technology, and Progress
 Topi Heikkerö and Michael Wolfe
 
 Søren Kierkegaard | Fear and Trembling
 Keri Ames and David Starr
 
 Week II 
 July 18 - 22
 
 Morning
 
 Thomas Mann | The Magic Mountain
 Eva Brann and Janet Dougherty
 
 The Founding Documents of the United States | The Declaration of 
 Independence, the Constitution, and the Federalist Papers
 Victoria Mora and Michael Peters
 
 The Wisdom of Solomon
 Patricia Greer and 

Re: [FRIAM] The Best 10 Fictional Works

[qef]

Greetings, all --

Great to see all the suggestions and conversations around them. One author with 
a Santa Fe (and perhaps an SFI) connection not yet mentioned, I believe, is 
Douglas Noel Adams (DNA). I'd recommend the Adams translation of The 
Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy.

As to creating a reading group, the pedagogical technique at St. John's (sorry 
to be tedious) is to have the books lead the discussion, largely by having a 
person designated to ask an opening question and then encouraging people to 
focus on the text and have a conversation about it. After about two hours, most 
folks are suffering from caffeine/nicotine withdrawal and agree to discuss it 
further over a meal/scotch/cigarette. Works for us...

- Claiborne -

 

 


 

 

-Original Message-
From: Pamela McCorduck pam...@well.com
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group friam@redfish.com
Sent: Sat, Oct 9, 2010 9:08 pm
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The Best 10 Fictional Works




On Oct 9, 2010, at 7:34 PM, Leigh Fanning wrote:



And I (also) say Why English, why not World Literature or something  

more expansive... and for the benefit of the women on this list... why  

do we (mostly) read the words of dead white men?   Really?  Without  

going all feminist, I'd really like to have more submissions here of  

women writers.  Until 30 years ago, there weren't that many published...


Mary Shelley's Frankenstein, early 1800s, is a great book.  Is it literature?  
I'm not
qualified to say, but it's a fantastic story with beautiful writing.




Yes, I certainly think of it as literature. If I were world literature czar 
(well, czarina) I would insist every budding scientist read it.


The male dominated Western educational experience is what most of us have had.  
It's all we know, until we jump to other pools of thought and nonconform to 
the establishment that nurtured (controlled?) us in the tender years.




Some of the most unusual and ground-breaking English literature has been 
written by women. I mean in particular, Jane Austen, who was first to 
understand that the age of reading aloud was dying, and it was time to write 
for the reader who reads alone and in his or her own head. Before Austen, 
English novels were written to be read aloud to a group. She is also killingly 
funny about human nature. On these grounds alone, Columbia University's core 
curriculum admitted to the canon its first female writer in Jane. If you read 
Charlotte Bronte's Wuthering Heights, the novel not the movie, you will 
hardly believe your eyes. Astounding stuff. Jane Eyre is the grandmother of a 
thousand and one derivatives, but is a stunning piece in its own right. 


So you see how futile a top ten is?


P.




 










How quickly weeks glide away in such a city as New York, especially when you 
reckon among your friends some of the most agreeable people in either 
hemisphere.
Fanny Trollope, Domestic Manners of the Americans












 

=
 

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Re: [FRIAM] The Best 10 Fictional Works

[qef]

Robert --

The St. John's graduate in me says whoopie! Here are 10, in no particular 
order:

Shakespeare: Sonnets
Shakespeare: Romeo  Juliet
Dante: The Divine Comedy
Homer: The Iliad
Tolstoy: War  Peace
Cervantes: Don Quixote
Eliot: Middlemarch
Austen: Pride  Prejudice
Fitzgerald: The Great Gatsby
Melville: Moby Dick

If you're okay with an anthology, The Oxford Book of Humorous Prose is well 
worth a look, as is anything by Wodehouse, I believe.

I'm sure some will quibble with my choices (too Western, too St. John's-y, not 
really fiction), but I'd aver at least some of them qualify in the sense of 
being based on a true story, if not necessarily fiction.

Happy Reading!

- Claiborne Booker -

 

 


 

 

-Original Message-
From: Robert J. Cordingley rob...@cirrillian.com
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group friam@redfish.com
Sent: Fri, Oct 8, 2010 3:44 pm
Subject: [FRIAM] The Best 10 Fictional Works


  Ok, so I've decided my literary education is somewhat lacking and would like 
to know this group's recommendations for the 10 Best Literary Works I should 
read.  They have to be works of fiction and available in English and not just 
say of 2009 but of all time.  Google searches tend to list the best of a year 
or be listed by one particular publisher.   This is a good group to poll since 
you all (most) have at least some kind of scientific/technical bent.  So I know 
the suggestions will be good ones for me! 
 
Once I have a list of all suggestions maybe I'll ask you all to vote on them. 
 
My list currently starts with Frank's recommendation today: 
 
Blood Meridian: Or the Evening Redness in the West by Cormac McCarthy 
 
Thanks! 
Robert C. 
 
 
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv 
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Re: [FRIAM] visitors at this week's Friam

[qef]

 Greetings, all --

At the risk of scaring away your visitors, I'm planning to join you on Friday, 
20 August 2010.

- Claiborne Booker -

 


 

 

-Original Message-
From: Tom Johnson t...@jtjohnson.com
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group friam@redfish.com
Sent: Sun, Aug 15, 2010 5:48 pm
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] visitors at this week's Friam


Dave:

If this Friday past is any indication, St. Johns in back in business for us.

Is she still a proponent of Class-responsibility-collaboration cards (as part 
of the Responsibility-driven design process)?  If so, could you talk her/them 
into a WedTech next week?

-tom
PS: Anyone interested in car-pooling to the broadband meeting in Moriarty 
tomorrow? 




On Sun, Aug 15, 2010 at 3:10 PM, Prof David West profw...@fastmail.fm wrote:

Hi,

We (Jenny Quillien and I) am bringing Rebecca and Allen Wirfs-Brock to
Friam this week.  Rebecca has been involved in object analysis and
design since day one (with Kent Beck and Ward Cunningham) at at
Tektronics where some of the earliest Smalltalk work was done.  Allen is
was a key developer of the Digitalk Smalltalk implementation.

If we are meeting somewhere other than St. Johns - please let me know by
Thursday.

dave west


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-- 
==
J. T. Johnson
Institute for Analytic Journalism -- Santa Fe, NM USA
www.analyticjournalism.com
505.577.6482(c)505.473.9646(h)
http://www.jtjohnson.com t...@jtjohnson.com

Be Your Own Publisher
http://indiepubwest.com
==

 


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Re: [FRIAM] Projects: 5 Stages

[qef]

 Tory --

It was mostly that the stages seem to be empirically valid - I can recall many 
instances where I've been in a team or relationship that had the excitement and 
novelty of coming together, the inevitable misunderstandings/arguments about 
how to proceed, a reconciliation and synthesis of the preferred approach, and 
finally, working together along those preferred lines to achieve something. The 
hazard is that it's presented in such a way as to suggest that there's an 
orderly, linear progression, whereas we know it's often quite the contrary. I 
tend to see it (and, relating it to my thinking) as a continuum - the 
progression is a road map, perhaps, but I'm likely to be taking on ramps and 
off ramps along the way. It's not at all clear, either in my own mind or when 
I'm working with others, where the transitions occur: no bright line between 
storming and norming, for example.

- Claiborne -

 


 

 

-Original Message-
From: Victoria Hughes victo...@toryhughes.com
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group friam@redfish.com
Sent: Fri, Jul 9, 2010 11:00 pm
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Projects:  5 Stages


Dunno. Not familiar with that. One aim of mine with this book is to phrase 
these ideas in a way that the beloved General Public can use them. Not just 
B-school types. I want the basic concept to be generally accessible. Needs to 
be, after all.


Will look into this. 
Has it affected how you conceptualize and take action on ideas and goals?
Or was it interesting (partly because of the alliteration, that memorable 
lilting he set up sticks in our brains like the Oscar Mayer Weiner song)
Happy to hear speculations, no worries.


Tory


On Jul 9, 2010, at 6:40 PM, q...@aol.com wrote:


Tory --
 
 How does this relate (if at all) to the simplistic group dynamics model I 
learned in business school (attributed to Bruce Tuckman)?
 
 forming
 storming
 norming
 performing
  
 
 
 
 At a minimum, I'm missing a stage, and I'm sure there's much more to your 
analysis. Excuse my speculations.
 
 - Claiborne Booker -
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
-Original Message-
 From: Victoria Hughes victo...@toryhughes.com
 To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group friam@redfish.com
 Sent: Fri, Jul 9, 2010 8:14 pm
 Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Projects:  5 Stages
 
 
 Yup, in most cases. Sometimes limitations force unusual, possibly more 
successful, resolutions. I don't know the book, will look into it. Thanks. 

 
 
Tory
 

 
 
 
On Jul 9, 2010, at 5:51 PM, Stephen Thompson wrote:
 

 
 Tory:  
  
  I am part way through Scott Page's book titled The Difference  He discussed 
the the power of diversity to 
  produce better groups and outcomes.  Are you aware of that reference?  None, 
some, or much diversity 
  would influence the stages or at least successful completion of the stages 
would it not? 
  
  Steph T  
  
  
  
  
  Victoria Hughes wrote: 
Fascinating. The original story and its appearance/discussion here.  

   
 I am writing a book on the five simple stages that projects move through, from 
idea to reality. 
   
 Part of the chapter, whose midst I am in, discusses teams, inner and outer:  
the grouping  of abilities and attributes required to get unstuck and get 
something done. 
   
 Sometimes the 'crate o' chickens' is outside of us,  if we are working with a 
team.  Sometimes our team is made from aspects of our own mind: the internal - 
complex- interconnection of knowledge, abilities, ideas, etc all squawking, 
laying, attacking, defending, at once, inside our brains.
   

   
   
 Glad to know that even among the inheritors of the reptilian hind brain there 
can be cooperation for a larger good, even if that is for more chickens. 
   

   
   
 Tory
   

   
   
  
  
On Jul 9, 2010, at 4:53 PM, Ted Carmichael wrote:
   
  
Well, it wouldn't ... unless you were selecting for the lowest producing hens.  
  

 
 
The GA selects for the groups of chickens that produce the most eggs, not the 
individuals.  Some of those individuals may actually not produce many eggs, but 
they must somehow help the ones that do produce more eggs (in their group).
 

 
 
-t
 
 
On Fri, Jul 9, 2010 at 6:47 PM, Shawn Barrsba...@gmail.com wrote:
 
 Ted,
   
  I'm confused.  Why would a genetic algorithm ever select a hen that produces 
fewer eggs over a hen that produces more eggs?
   
   
  Shawn  
  

   
   
On Fri, Jul 9, 2010 at 2:57 PM, Ted Carmichael teds...@gmail.com wrote:
   
Nick, this is perfect.  Thank you!

 
 
BTW - the reason for this request is, my advisor and I were asked to write a 
chapter on Complex Adaptive Systems, for a cognitive science textbook.  In it, 
I talk briefly about GA, and put this story about the chickens in because I 
thought it was a neat example.
 

 
 
I'll add the references now.  Much appreciated.
 

 
 
-t
 
   

Re: [FRIAM] What Is a Philosopher? - Opinionator Blog - NYTimes.com

[qef]

 Nick --

Time is indeed a fascinating topic in philosophy. You may be familiar with Eva 
Brann's writings on Time:

http://pauldrybooks.com/eva.php

I can't confirm that The Apology was time-constrained - at St. John's, I 
suppose it was, in that it was limited to a combined Seminar with the Crito, 
meaning that it was a shared dialogue for one 2-hour Seminar slot (on both 
campuses).

I'm fond of a technique attributed to Max Warburg for announcing an evening's 
entertainment was over - Why, you naughty clock! You're chasing my guests 
away!

 


 - Claiborne Booker -




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[FRIAM] Link to Technology Review Article on Cows as Simple Coupled Oscillators

[qef]

 Greetings, all --

More ABM ideas...

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/25171/?ref=rss

- Claiborne Booker -

 



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Re: [FRIAM] Wind Farm Comprssible Flow!

[qef]

 Nick --

Sure. Think about tires. Air is compressed in them. By the way, those who 
advocate filling tires with Nitrogen sometimes conveniently forget that our 
atmosphere is already 78% Nitrogen. It makes a slight advantage in racing 
tires, but most of us run with underinflated tires anyway. It's one of the 
cheapest and easiest ways to boost fuel efficiency - make sure your tires have 
the proper amount of compressed air.

- Claiborne Booker -

 

 

-Original Message-
From: Nicholas Thompson nickthomp...@earthlink.net
To: friam@redfish.com
Sent: Thu, Nov 26, 2009 3:41 pm
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Wind Farm Comprssible Flow!



Ok.  It's unfair for your smart people to tease us dumb ones.  
 
Is air a compressible medium or not?  
 
N
 

Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Ethology, 
Clark University (nthomp...@clarku.edu)
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
http://www.cusf.org [City University of Santa Fe]
 
 
 

 

- Original Message - 
From: 
To: friam@redfish.com
Sent: 11/26/2009 11:38:31 AM 
Subject: [FRIAM] Wind Farm Comprssible Flow!


I didn't know that wind turbines experienced compressible flow.  This makes all 
my papers and books on the subject wrong, although the operating turbines 
designed by my codes don't seem to know this!   I would like to correct them.  
Can anyone provide reports on compressible flow in wind farms?

Peter Lissaman, Da Vinci Ventures

Expertise is not knowing everything, but knowing what to look for.

1454 Miracerros Loop South, Santa Fe, New Mexico 87505,USA
tel:(505)983-7728 

- Original Message -
From: friam-requ...@redfish.com
To: friam@redfish.com
Sent: Thursday, November 26, 2009 10:00:07 AM GMT -07:00 US/Canada Mountain
Subject: Friam Digest, Vol 77, Issue 30

Send Friam mailing list submissions to friam@redfish.com To subscribe or 
unsubscribe via the World Wide Web, visit 
http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com or, via email, send a 
message with subject or body 'help' to friam-requ...@redfish.com You can reach 
the person managing the list at friam-ow...@redfish.com When replying, please 
edit your Subject line so it is more specific than Re: Contents of Friam 
digest... 
Today's Topics: 1. Some Facts about Arrays! (plissa...@comcast.net) 2. Answer 
to Steve! (plissa...@comcast.net) 3. Re: flocking windmills (Roger Critchlow) 
4. Shrink Wrapped Bikes (plissa...@comcast.net) 5. Re: Shrink Wrapped Bikes 
(Hugh Trenchard) 6. Re: flocking windmills (Marcus Daniels) 7. Re: Some Facts 
about Arrays! (Marcus Daniels) 
___ Friam mailing list 
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[FRIAM] From Claiborne - The Onion Strikes Again!

[qef]

Greetings, all --

Any chance this is a relative of our own dear Nicholas Thompson? I kid, I kid, 
of course.

- Claiborne Booker -



Favorite Stick Brought Inside




In News In Brief


DENVER—Discarding
a number of twigs that did not conform to his high standards, Nicholas
Thompson, 5, finally selected a favorite stick from...


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Re: [FRIAM] Psychology Blogs

[qef]

 Owen --

An excellent point to Roger and the rest of us. Frankly, I struggle with my RSS 
feeds: at present, Bloglines has me at 576, which is probably on the high end 
of most users. Still, I like them largely because I selected them, which 
suggests a certain echo chamber bias. I read probably 20% within a week, 
another 30% within 30 days, and the remainder within 90 days. The latency 
bothers me a bit, since time matters somewhat, but I'm unlikely to devote more 
than about 20 hours/week to blogs directly. It's much better than surfing 
around to each, however.

I'd like to read some blogs more frequently (bOING bOING, for example), but 
find that the number of entries fills up quickly, and when I'm scanning, I'm 
much more likely to go for my more macroeconomic blogs that have had 10 entries 
since last I looked than those that have had 150. Maybe there's an interesting 
opportunity for blogs to optimize posting frequency, bearing in mind 
Machiavelli's admonition:

Benefits should be conferred gradually; and in that way they will taste better. 
(probably not the best translation, but the best I could find on the Internets).


- Claiborne Booker -?





 


 

-Original Message-
From: Owen Densmore o...@backspaces.net
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group friam@redfish.com
Sent: Thu, Sep 3, 2009 4:35 pm
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Psychology Blogs









On Sep 3, 2009, at 4:28 PM, Roger Critchlow wrote:?
?

 I just put it all into Google Reader and star the stuff I might want?

 to go back to read later.  If I get too far behind, I just mark it all?

 read and go on.?

?

 -- rec --?
?


The problem is that you are a computer pro.  I doubt you could show others how 
to think in this fashion.  You need to understand blogs, and that they are 
article based with dates.  You'd have to explain RSS feeds as a notification 
stunt.  You'd have to explain that there are ways to use the feeds: Google 
Reader, Browser functionalities, Aggregators, and so on.  It really is hard, at 
least at the conceptual level for non-geeks.?
?

I remember *several* folks at the complex begging for chats on how to use the 
web so to speak.  We never got around to it, but boy would it be useful.  Don 
had a few barn raising sessions: come with your laptop and we'll show you how 
to use the wiki or how to use forums.  Maybe we ought to go back to that??
?

?   -- Owen?
?

?


?

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv?

Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College?

lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org?



 


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Re: [FRIAM] manifold in mathematics

[qef]

 Let me add another inquiry to this - how do we reconcile this notion of 
manifold with the idea of self-similarity? If Epping Forest is a manifold, but 
the leaves and twigs are not, yet the leaves and twigs have some 
self-similarity, is Holt truly thinking in terms of the mathematical definition 
of manifold, as Roger gave us, or is the metaphor missing something (or am I)?


 


 - Claiborne Booker -


-Original Message-
From: Nicholas Thompson nickthomp...@earthlink.net
To: friam@redfish.com
Sent: Wed, Aug 5, 2009 12:39 am
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] manifold in mathematics















Is an organism a manifold? 


?


Do the parts have to be heterogeneous?? Dictionary definition would seem to 
suggest so.? Thus a regiment would not be a manifold (except insofar as it 
contains soldiers of different ranks).? 


?


n


?




Nicholas S. Thompson


Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Ethology, 


Clark University (nthomp...@clarku.edu)


http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/


?


?


?




?




- Original Message - 


From: Robert Cordingley 


To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group


Sent: 8/4/2009 8:03:00 PM 


Subject: Re: [FRIAM] manifold in mathematics




So to return to the forest question... Sherwood Forest is I presume another 
manifold.? I know it is now discontiguous, separated by urban development and 
such (perhaps Epping Forest is too).? Is it still a manifold?? I could ask the 
same question about the British Isles: lots of little places, some bigger ones, 
surrounded by water.

Also while the twig is in the forest it is part of the forest until someone 
removes it.? Does it's history keep it part of the manifold?? Or can I declare 
it as such and it is so?

Robert C.



russell standish wrote: 


On Tue, Aug 04, 2009 at 03:51:38PM -0600, Nicholas Thompson wrote:
  



This is why I like to ask questions of PEOPLE: because when you get
conflicting answers, you have somewhere to go to try and resolve the
conflict.  

So I have three different definitions of a manifold: 

1. A patchwork made of many patches

2. The structure of a manifold is encoded by a collection of charts that
form an atlas. 

3. a function that violates the usual function rule that there can be
only y value for each x value.  (or do I have that backwards).

I can map 1 or 2 on to one another, but not three.  i think 3. is the most
like meaning that Holt has in mind because I think he thinks of
consciousness as analogous to a mathematical formula that generates outputs
(responses) from inputs(environments).  




1  2 were different ways of saying the same thing - one does need a
definition of patch or chart, though. I think (although I could be
mistaken), each chart (or patch) must be a diffeomorphism (aka smooth
map), although it may be sufficient for them to be continuous. The
reason I say that, is that I don't believe one could consider the
Cantor set to be a manifold.

Most of my experience of manifolds have been smooth manifolds (every
point is surrounded by neighbourhood with a diffeomorphic
chart/patch), with the occasional nod to piecewise smooth manifolds
(has corners). The surface of a sphere is a smooth manifold. The
surface of a cube is not, but it is piecewise smooth.

No 3 above was just a way of saying that graphs of suitably smooth functions are
manifolds, but not all manifolds are graphs of functions.

  



Thanks, everybody. 

Nick 

Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Ethology, 
Clark University (nthomp...@clarku.edu)
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/








[Original Message]
From: Jochen Fromm jfr...@t-online.de
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group friam@redfish.com
Date: 8/4/2009 6:31:57 PM
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] manifold in mathematics

A manifold can be described as a 
complex patchwork made of many patches.
If we try to describe self-consciousness 
as a manifold then we get

- the patch of a strange loop 
associated with insight in confusion
(according to Douglas Hofstadter)

- the patch of an imaginary 
center of narrative gravity 
(according to Daniel Dennett)

- the patch of the theater of consciousness 
which represents the audience itself
(according to Bernard J. Baars)

have I missed an important patch ?

-J.


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[FRIAM] More on Roundabouts

[qef]

Greetings, all --

For what it's worth, when I was on the City's Traffic Calming Review Task Force 
a few years ago, I worked with the Traffic Engineering department to find 
suitable intersections in Santa Fe to put in modern roundabouts. I was 
especially interested in doing it at the intersection of San Mateo and 
Galisteo, since there was room in the then-unbuilt development to accommodate 
one. Unfortunately, three of the four landowners approved, but the hold out 
held out and we have a 4-way stop at that intersection instead. This article 
from Slate speaks to several of the points others made recently:

http://www.slate.com/id/2223035/pagenum/all/#p2

- Claiborne Booker -



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[FRIAM] XKCD Today

[qef]

Greetings, all --

Nothing like a bit of levity from the Webcomic of Romance, Sarcasm, Math, and 
Language:

http://xkcd.com/613/

- Claiborne Booker -

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[FRIAM] Philosophy, The Thursday Poem on 3 Quarks Daily

[qef]

Greetings, all --

Although not likely to contribute to our most interesting discussion of 
philosophy, an agreeable change of pace, perhaps:

http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksdaily/2009/07/thursday-poem-2.html

- Claiborne Booker -

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[FRIAM] One for Nick, One for Freeman

[qef]

Greetings, all --

If I may, from this remove (now a great distance from Santa Fe, in Alexandria, 
Virginia), allow me to offer a couple of thoughts on recent postings:

1) Hard to beat the bratwurst at San Francisco Street Bar  Grill for lunch 
(ask for extra mustard). If I were to celebrate, The Pink Adobe is a reliable 
source of good food, and I'm fond of El Nido in Tesuque for a classic surf 'n' 
turf. I'm happy to extend it to Geronimo, The Compound, Ristra, and perhaps, A 
La Mesa (it's new, after all, and may not make the Top 10 down the road). I 
had a great supper at Bistro 315 before leaving the Land of Enchantment, too. 
There's something to be said about the cheap and cheerful service at Del Charro 
at the Inn of the Governors, as well as Piccolino on Aqua Fria (neither of 
which would be ideal for a celebration, but they could provide the food...).

2) Several alluded to this, and as a trader/student of pricing, I'd say that 
Dyson's observations are extremely worthwhile, and I'm happy to have them, if 
for no other reason than it sows more seeds of uncertainty on the market. Trade 
the volatility!? Actually, I think the more important aspect is that while it's 
very interesting to look at matters at the scale of 1AU, we mere mortals are 
struggling to find a way to measure and, with luck, manage the interactive 
effects of one complex adaptive system, climate, with another complex adaptive 
system, macroeconomics. I'll be bold in predicting that there's money to be 
made in the intersection. Now, we could have a much more interesting 
conversation about whether money matters, but I'll leave it to the reader to 
decide or denigrate, as appropriate.

- Claiborne Booker -

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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Re: [FRIAM] What is friam REALLY about?

[qef]

 Greetings, all --

For those who were wondering, it's from HMS Pinafore, with Buttercup singing 
to the Captain, viz:


  DUET -- LITTLE BUTTERCUP and CAPTAIN

BUT.   Things are seldom what they seem,
   Skim milk masquerades as cream;
   Highlows pass as patent leathers;
   Jackdaws strut in peacock's feathers.
CAPT. (puzzled).Very true,
So they do.
BUT.   Black sheep dwell in every fold;
   All that glitters is not gold;
   Storks turn out to be but logs;
   Bulls are but inflated frogs.
CAPT. (puzzled).So they be,
Frequentlee.
BUT.   Drops the wind and stops the mill;
   Turbot is ambitious brill;
   Gild the farthing if you will,
   Yet it is a farthing still.
CAPT. (puzzled).Yes, I know.
That is so.
BUT.   Though to catch your drift I'm striving,
It is shady -- it is shady;
   I don't see at what you're driving,
Mystic lady -- mystic lady.
(Aside.)   Stern conviction's o'er me stealing,
   That the mystic lady's dealing
   In oracular revealing.
BUT. (aside).  Stern conviction's o'er him stealing,
   That the mystic lady's dealing
   In oracular revealing.
Yes, I know--
That is so!
CAPT.  Though I'm anything but clever,
   I could talk like that for ever:
   Once a cat was killed by care;
   Only brave deserve the fair.
Very true,
So they do.
CAPT.  Wink is often good as nod;
   Spoils the child who spares the rod;
   Thirsty lambs run foxy dangers;
   Dogs are found in many mangers.
BUT.Frequentlee,
I agree.
CAPT.  Paw of cat the chestnut snatches;
   Worn-out garments show new patches;
   Only count the chick that hatches;
   Men are grown-up catchy-catchies.
BUT.Yes, I know,
That is so.




 Words by W.S. Gilbert, Music by A. Sullivan

By the way, Topsy Turvy is an interesting exploration of The Mikado on and 
off the stage.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0151568/

- Claiborne Booker -



 

-Original Message-
From: Nicholas Thompson nickthomp...@earthlink.net
To: friam@redfish.com
Sent: Sun, 29 Mar 2009 12:34 pm
Subject: [FRIAM] What is friam REALLY about?
















My father;s favorite saying was:? Things are never what they seem, skim milk 
masquerades for cream!? Not particularly elegant, but he LOVED to say it. 


?


So it is that things are never about what they are called.? For instance, if 
you have ever painted a house, you know that the proceddure?should be called 
House Scraping, because the painting is a relatively insignificant part of the 
whole operation.? And vacuuming should? be called furniture displacement.? 


?


Last year I discovered that faculty life is really about finding high minded 
rationales from protecting our salary.? At the university where I worked for 
nearly 40 years, there is a faculty discussion list that was created so the 
faculty could discuss matters of the mind.? Since I left , it went completely 
silent.? I assumed that the list was defunct.? But when the compensation 
committee proposed a salary freeze as part of an austerity program, oh WOW did 
THAT sucker come to life!


?


And in the last week, I discovered that FRIAM is really about FOOD and PUNS.? 
What a turnout!? What amazing richness of information and imagination!? Next I 
expect to discover that the NAME of FRIAM is really the name?for?a cockney 
method of cooking smoked pork.? 


?


Nick 


?


?


?


?


Nicholas S. Thompson


Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Ethology, 


Clark University (nthomp...@clarku.edu)


http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/


?


?


?




 






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[FRIAM] Link to Greenhouse Gas Exercise at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

[qef]

Greetings, all --

Trying very hard not to use abbreviations! A link via the New York Times Dot 
Earth Blog:

http://systemdynamics.mit.edu/ghg-exercise/welcome.htm

It deals with the bathtub effect relating to climate change, although as 
Professor Sterman notes, there are applications to other fields, too. Complex 
Adaptive Systems, indeed.

- Claiborne Booker -

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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Re: [FRIAM] The Black Swan

[qef]

 Greetings, all --

It was nice to be in Santa Fe again, albeit briefly. Eric Falkenstein is not a 
lover of Taleb, and so I'll pass this along with that proviso and note that 
it's helpful to think through some of both Taleb's statements and Falkenstein's 
reactions:

http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2008/11/fooled-by-randomness.html

Here is an earlier posting by Falkenstein that may give you some of the flavor 
of his feelings for Taleb:

Martin Gardner wrote a popular column for Scientific American, and in
the process received a lot of mail from ‘cranks’ telling him about
perpetual motion machines and the like. So he wrote a book called Fads and 
Fallacies.  In the book he describes cranks who he describes as having five 
invariable characteristics:



A profound intellectual superiority complex.

Regards other researchers as idiotic, and always operates outside the peer 
review system.

Believes there is a campaign against their ideas, a campaign compared with the 
persecution of Galileo or Pasteur.

Attacks only the biggest theories and scientific figures.

Coins neologisms.



On Taleb’s personal website he describes himself thusly: He is also an 
essayist, belletrist, literary-philosophical-mathematical flâneur.
The third-person is perfect pitch for describing himself, and the rest,
well, literary-philosophical-mathematical types—especially flâneurs—tend
to be full of themselves, supporting Gardner’s characteristic #1. He
prides himself on not submitting articles to refereed journals, and
conside
rs most people who are indifferent to him as fools, disdains
editors, even spellcheckers (#2). He pridefully notes that someone told
him “in another time he would have been hanged [me: for what,
inanity?].” Wilmott Magazine, a quant publication published by his colleague 
Paul Wilmott, wrote a fawning article about
him where they noted that he is “Wall Street’s principal dissident.
Heretic! Calvin to finance’s Catholic Church” (#3). His website states
his modest desire to understand chance from the viewpoint of
“philosophy/epistemology, philosophy/ethics, mathematics, social
science/finance, and cognitive science”, supporting #4. Lastly, for #5,
has gone so far as to print a glossary for his neologisms (eg, “epistemic 
arrogance” for “overconfidence”).  In Martin Gardner’s taxonomy, Taleb is a 
classic crank.

(end of excerpt - via Mahalanobis 20 April 2007)

- Claiborne -

 


 

-Original Message-
From: Phil Henshaw [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' friam@redfish.com
Sent: Sun, 16 Nov 2008 7:42 am
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The Black Swan










I'd agree Taleb does not communicate his main insights consistently, and
uses fuzzy generalities that you need to grok to make sense of.  I don't
think one needs to deal with all that to get the main point, though.

The reasons why *statistical analysis fails for subjects of increasing
non-homogenous complexity* seems invaluable.   It's a principl
e that might
be derived simply from any number of directions, and is an important point.
Our world is making the critical error exposed in any number of ways it
appears.   

It's also interestingly central to the complexity theory of W M Elsasser
that he developed in the 50's and 60's.  He's an extraordinarily clear
thinking theoretical physicist/biologist who points to that as a gap in
statistical mechanics that needs to be considered for any attempt to model
non-homogenous systems like life.   

I even find that strategy of the gaps remotely similar to how Rosen points
to why divergent sequences can't be represented in closed systems of
equations, but are clearly part of life, and so are necessary for any
attempt to model such non-homogenously developing and changing systems as
life.

Phil Henshaw  

 -Original Message-
 From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
 Behalf Of Jochen Fromm
 Sent: Sunday, November 16, 2008 4:59 AM
 To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
 Subject: [FRIAM] The Black Swan
 
 I am currently trying to read Taleb's Black Swan.
 Paul and Glen mentioned it earlier a few weeks ago,
 and Russ said it has some nice points. So I read
 the first chapter and thought well, interesting.
 Then I read the second about Yevgenia Krasnova,
 a fictional character which embodies his anger
 about publishers, and thought what a crap.
 
 Somehow it goes on like this: it is hard to
 say if it is crap20(his Mediocristan and
 Extremistan for example) or a masterpiece.
 Chapter three is better again. Many ideas
 are exhilarating, but the terms are often
 very idiosyncratic.
 
 His main topic, the Black Swan, is less
 interesting than the many thought provoking
 ideas one can find between the lines, when Taleb
 talks about his experiences or uprising. After
 all, points where little things can make a big
 difference are not new, John H. Holland has
 called them Lever points, Murray Gell-Mann
 frozen accidents, and Gladwell tipping points.
 

Re: [FRIAM] Election: Why So Close

[qef]

 Greetings, all --

The Pauline Kael Syndrome affects all of us to a greater or lesser extent, I 
suppose (you may recall that Ms. Kael, film critic for The New Yorker, 
famously commented in 1972, I live in a rather special world. I only know one 
person who voted for
Nixon. Where they are I don't know. They're outside my ken. But
sometimes when I'm in a theater I can feel them.). I am a bit of a 
cross-kenner, perhaps, in that as a finance guy who's a social progressive, I 
have sympathies on both sides -- as do most voters, I'd say. At the end of the 
day, however, I'm more confident in the kind of society a Democrat can offer 
than any other party. It's also worth noting that third-parties have never been 
successful in part because we in the US like clear winners - no grand 
coalitions. The Perot '92 voters are McCain '08 voters, for the most part, and 
the Nader '00 voters are mostly Obama '08.

Maybe the distribution really is along the lines that Nassim Nicholas Taleb 
describes -- there's the narrative fallacy (believing in your ability to 
recognize patterns where none exists) and confirmation bias (paying attention 
only to information that strengthens your argument).

Our deplorable lack of awareness of the world around us may be a feature, not a 
bug. We live in such relative peace and prosperity that politics doesn't really 
affect us day in and day out. Indeed, there are many economists who argue that 
there's no need to vote, since your single vote is unlikely to affect the 
outcome of an election. Of course, we in the sparsely poplulated West know 
better, and besides, there's a greater civic duty/social contract idea behind 
being a responsible citizen. That's the message of all the ads on MTV to get 
out the youth vote, and maybe it will work this time, but it's hard to force 
people. Citizens in South Africa and Iraq and Gaza have much more to gain, it 
seems, from participating in elections than we do. That neglects, however, the 
hard-won right to vote that our ancestors vouchsafed for us. We owe it to them 
as much as ourselves to make our voices heard.

Like Owen and Doug, I'd like voters to be more intelligent, but I'll settle for 
their being less ignorant.

- Claiborne -


 


 

-Original Message-
From: Douglas Roberts [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group friam@redfish.com
Sent: Fri, 31 Oct 2008 1:35 pm
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Election: Why So Close









I can't resist:


On Fri, Oct 31, 2008 at 1:30 PM, Tom Carter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:


[...] Democrats tend to have at least a little trouble flat out lying . . .?


Well, that would depend on what the definition of the word is is, wouldn't it?

;-}


One of the more blatant Democratic lies ever uttered.? Its echos are still 
reverberating. 



-- 
Doug Roberts, RTI International
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell



 






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[FRIAM] Taleb via Chris Anderson and Fibonacci and the Dow

[qef]

Greetings, all --

A couple of links to ponder: first, from The Long Tail, Chris Anderson's blog:


October 09, 2008





Best advice I've heard all week







What should you do amidst financial turmoil?
 
 
Put
wax in your ears. People are more afraid of flying than driving because
the press does not report car accidents. I never watch the news. Only
listen to news you get in a social setting, the things people talk
about. Our brains cannot deal with the overload of information. Having
a lot of data is not good for anyone trying to make a decision.

 
Nassim Taleb, quoted in an interesting article
(sub required) about why we're so bad at putting bad news in context.
Found in an old (Aug 30) issue of New Scientist that I was reading on
the plane back from Brazil today.










Posted at 12:48 PM  | Permalink





Hmm...I'd argue that you can never have enough *relevant* data for making 
decisions, and indeed, determining what's relevant may be akin to John 
Wanamaker's observation about advertising: Half my advertising is wasted, I 
just don't know which half. To the extent that history is written by the 
victors, I'd be interested in hearing more from people who have followed 
Taleb's advice and were not successful.




Second, for those who enjoy this kind of thing, another link suggesting that we 
still have some ways to go.? Personally, I think the VIX is very interesting to 
watch and consider right now, even though it, too, is somewhat manufactured.







http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/10/fibonacci-unhin.html




Yes, Margo Channing said it best: fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a 
bumpy night.


 


- Claiborne -

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

[FRIAM] Taleb, Markets, and Modeling

[qef]

Greetings, all --

As someone who has been front and center in all of this (our global macro fund 
is down about 40% in the last three months, after being up about the same 
amount in the first six of 2008), I suppose I can say that a well-reasoned 
strategy and quantitative model cannot adequately address extreme events. This, 
of course, is a main point of Taleb's two books, both of which I have read. I 
think this entry and its links give a good overview:

http://conservationfinance.wordpress.com/2007/06/21/falkenstein-on-taleb/

- Claiborne -

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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[FRIAM] Purity from xkcd

[qef]

 Greetings, all --

As a money manager, I believe I have an idea where Economics lies on this 
spectrum.

- Claiborne -



























xkcd.com

xkcd.com: A webcomic of romance and math humor.












































Purity







































































-- 
Claiborne B. Booker
Quadrivium Partners LLC
1160 S. Clarkson Street
Denver, Colorado 80210-1605

(303) 667-0088


 


FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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[FRIAM] Chicago Professor on Civilizations

[qef]

Greetings, all --

This picks up on an earlier thread, and I apologize in advance if others 
already referenced it:

http://beta.uchicago.edu/features/20080414.shtml

On a personal note, the move to Denver has been uneventful - I'll be in Santa 
Fe from time to time.

All the best,

- Claiborne -

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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[FRIAM] XO laptop -- a green miracle of energy efficiency: Video

[qef]

 Greetings, all --

This may be of interest to the group.

- Claiborne Booker -



























Boing Boing














































XO laptop -- a green miracle of energy efficiency: Video

By Cory Doctorow on Video





Avi sez, Mary Lou Jepsen, who invented the sunlight readable display for the 
two-watt XO laptop, gives the numbers that set the bar for ALL future gadgets.



This is a hell of a video clip -- Jepsen just lays down the cold, hard numbers 
about her marvellous invention and compares it to the disposable power-guzzlers 
the rest of us use and the comparison speaks for itself. Damn, I wish that 
they'd made this for sale in Britain last Christmas.

Link


(Thanks, Avi!)









































































FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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[FRIAM] Fwd: Bloglines - OLPC, Microsoft working on dual-boot Windows / Linux system

[qef]

Greetings, all --

FYI

- Claiborne -































?




Engadget

Engadget












































OLPC, Microsoft working on dual-boot Windows / Linux system

By Donald Melanson on windows




Filed under: Laptops




We already knew Microsoft was at least toying around with putting Windows on 
the OLPC XO, but it looks like things have just gotten quite a bit more 
serious, with the OLPC folks now saying that they're working very closely 
with Microsoft to develop a dual-boot Windows / Linux system for the laptop. 
What's more, Nick Neg himself reportedly said that the version of Windows 
that's now up and running on on the XO is very fast and very, very 
successful. There's no word just yet as to when we might actually see such a 
system be released, however, but OLPC is apparently now talking with Microsoft 
and possibly the Bill  Melinda Gates Foundation about putting the XO to use 
in some of the education programs Microsoft runs in developing countries, a 
possibility that Negroponte says is really cooking at the moment.




?

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Comments

















































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Re: [FRIAM] OLPC Question

[qef]

 Carver --

The price didn't get down to the targeted USD 100 -- it's closer to USD 200, 
which is why the G1G1 program is USD 400 (2 OLPC @ USD 200 each, one for you, 
one for a child in the OLPC program).? The OLPC Foundation is no doubt getting 
a few bucks to cover some administrative costs, but I am fairly certain no 
one's making money on this.

You may also be aware of Intel's Classmate, another low-priced computer for 
schoolchildren in developing countries:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/6675833.stm

- Claiborne Booker -


 


 

-Original Message-
From: Carver Tate [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group friam@redfish.com
Sent: Sun, 30 Dec 2007 10:36 am
Subject: [FRIAM] OLPC Question










Hey everyone, I am interested in donating a laptop for the OLPC
program, but I have a question that I can't find an answer to on their
website.  They are asking you to donate 400 dollars for one laptop,
but I thought the laptops were only suppose to cost 100 dollars to
produce.  Do you know what the other 300 dollars is for?  Thanks and
happy new year!
- Carver


-- 
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the
intelligent are full of doubt. - Bertrand Russell


FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org



 



More new features than ever.  Check out the new AOL Mail ! - 
http://webmail.aol.com

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

[FRIAM] Link to Economist Article - RNA: Really New Advances

[qef]

Greetings, all --

Carl mentioned this to me at FRIAM today and I thought it might be of interest 
to others who may have missed it:

http://www.economist.com/science/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=9333471

- Claiborne Booker -


AOL now offers free email to everyone.  Find out more about what's free from 
AOL at AOL.com.

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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