date:20031003

Bush is finished -- it's time to plan ahead for a struggle against a
Democratic President in the White House who won't end the occupation
of Iraq (thirteen months is a shorter period of time than you think).
*   New York Times   October 3, 2003
Poll Shows Drop in Confidence on Bush Skill in Handling Crises
By TODD S. PURDUM and JANET ELDER
The public's confidence in President Bush's ability to deal wisely
with an international crisis has slid sharply over the past five
months, the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll has found. And a
clear majority are also uneasy about his ability to make the right
decisions on the nation's economy.
Over all, the poll found, Americans are for the first time more
critical than not of Mr. Bush's ability to handle both foreign and
domestic problems, and a majority say the president does not share
their priorities. Thirteen months before the 2004 election, a solid
majority of Americans say the country is seriously on the wrong
track, a classic danger sign for incumbents, and only about half of
Americans approve of Mr. Bush's overall job performance. That is
roughly the same as when Mr. Bush took office after the razor-close
2000 election. . . .
A summer of continuing attacks on American soldiers in Iraq, the
failure so far to find weapons of mass destruction there and Mr.
Bush's recent request for $87 billion to pay for military operations
and reconstruction in Iraq and Afghanistan have taken a toll on
public support for his administration's Iraq policy and on views of
his ability to handle such issues in general.
The poll found that just 45 percent of Americans now have confidence
in Mr. Bush's ability to deal wisely with an international crisis,
down sharply from 66 percent in April, and half now say they are
uneasy about his approach. Nearly 9 in 10 Americans say the war in
Iraq is still going on, and 6 in 10 say the United States should not
spend as much on the effort as Mr. Bush has sought. Three-quarters of
Americans, including a majority of Republicans, say the
administration has yet to clearly explain how long American troops
will have to stay in Iraq, or how much it will cost to rebuild the
country.
I am very uneasy because of the war, said Joyce Austin, 69, a
retired nurse's aide in Readstown, Wis., who was reinterviewed after
the poll was conducted. I don't think the Bush administration had a
good plan for ending the war, and for what was going to happen
afterward. I don't think they realized how much it was going to
cost. Mrs. Austin paused and added, Maybe they knew and just didn't
tell us.
The nationwide telephone poll of 981 adults has a margin of sampling
error of plus or minus three percentage points. The poll, taken
Sunday through Wednesday, was in progress when the Justice Department
announced that it would investigate accusations that someone in the
White House may have leaked the name of an undercover C.I.A. officer.
As the week progressed and news coverage of the investigation
intensified, respondents were somewhat less likely to credit the Bush
administration with bringing heightened honesty and integrity to the
workings of the White House, compared with past administrations. In
the end, just over one-third of the respondents said the
administration had brought more honesty and integrity, while 18
percent said it had  brought less and 43 percent said it was about
the same as other administrations.
For months, Americans have been critical of Mr. Bush's handling of
the national economy, and they remain so, with just one in five
saying the administration's policies have made their taxes go down
and a near-majority saying the policies have had no effect on them
personally. Half of the respondents said the federal tax cuts enacted
since 2001 had not made much difference in the economy, and the rest
were about evenly divided on whether the tax cuts were bad or good.
Just 40 percent of voters expressed confidence in Mr. Bush's ability
to make the right decisions about the economy, down from half in
April, while 56 percent said they were uneasy, up from 42 percent in
April.
During Mr. Bush's tenure, a majority of Americans say, jobs have been
lost and not created, there has been no easing of the high cost of
prescription drugs and schools have not improved. Six in 10 Americans
- and 4 in 10 Republicans - say the economy is worse than it was when
Mr. Bush took office. Four in 10 of those polled were worried that
someone in their household would lose his job in the next year.
Even worse news for the president was that Americans have also become
critical of his handling of foreign policy, which had been been seen
as his strength for most of his presidency. The latest survey found
that 44 percent of those polled approved of Mr. Bush's overall
handling of foreign policy, down from 52 percent in July, and that 47
percent approved of his handling of the situation in Iraq, down from
58 percent in July.
Polls last winter showed that public support for the

Re: George W. Bush, c'est fini

Is Bush really afraid of horses??

It's in the flash piece.

Mike B)
--- Yoshie Furuhashi [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:



 Watch Army of One at http://www.armyofone.info/.



=
*
--why do you slack your fighting-fury now?  It's hard for me, strong as I am, 
single-handed to breach the wall and cut a path to the ships--come, 
shoulder-to-shoulder!  The more we've got, the better the work will go!

One of Sarpedon's speeches in THE ILIAD--The Trojans storm the rampart
http://profiles.yahoo.com/swillsqueal

__
Do you Yahoo!?
The New Yahoo! Shopping - with improved product search
http://shopping.yahoo.com

When Jesus asked for a Rolex

The Good Lord Jesus is sitting on his donkey, riding to Golgotha. A crowd of
people stands by, cheering. All of a sudden, the donkey stops, and
stubbornly refuses to move on. A Roman soldier whips the donkey, to get the
donkey to move, and whips Jesus a bit for good measure, causing blood to
well up from the Lord's shoulder. But the donkey still refuses to move.
Ouch, said Jesus.
What now, jibed the Roman soldier, Are you whinging again ?.
I want a Rolex, says Jesus.
What ???, says the Roman soldier incredulously.
And Jesus says very calmly, I want a Rolex.
This is unbelieveable, said the Roman soldier, taken aback. Anyway, you
can't look at your Rolex, hanging on the cross, and you'll be dead very soon
anyway, so what's the point of having a Rolex ?.
It's simple, said Jesus, if I don't get my Rolex, this donkey ain't gonna
move.
The soldier takes off his helmet off, and scratches his head. Hell, Jesus
of Nazareth, he says, you drive a hard bargain. What on earth have you
done, that's so good, that would earn you a Rolex at this unGodly time ?.
Well, says Jesus, I campaigned for peace of earth, and I am a socialist.
But this is ridiculous, said the Roman soldier. As regards peace, you
caused a public disturbance, and you cannot prove you are a socialist
anyhow.
I can prove it, said Jesus.
How ?, said the Roman soldier.
My Dad was working class, he worked as a carpenter. My mother gave birth to
me in a sty, said Jesus.
That doesn't make you a socialist, that's just talking about your parents,
jibed the Roman soldier.
I had various jobs, I was a barefoot doctor, I worked as a para-legal, I
have been a parttime lecturer, jobs like that, nothing fancy, modest wages.
But there is nothing socialist about that, said the Roman soldier. That
proves nothing.
I broke the loaves and the fishes, and shared them out, with a Keynesian
multiplier effect, said Jesus.
But that doesn't make you a socialist, that is just a distributional issue,
any social democrat can say that, said the Roman soldier.
I didn't say I voted for Meretz; I consorted with a prostitute, said
Jesus.
Bureaucrats do that too, said the Roman soldier, who had been on a tour of
duty to Brussels, and was a fan of the Danish soccer team.
Allright then, said Jesus, put me in a cave, and I will rise again.
The centurion doesn't allow that, said the Roman soldier. We just have to
bomb the caves, because Ossama Bin Laden might be hiding in there.
I threw the money-changers out of the temple, said Jesus. And I want my
Rolex, otherwise the donkey ain't moving.
Now we're talking, says the Roman soldier. Which reminds me, they still
haven't paid me either. Okay, here's your Rolex, now get off this donkey,
so I can get it moving again.
The Good Lord Jesus gets off the donkey, looked at his Rolex, and straps it
on. Miraculously, the donkey starts moving again.
Allright then, says the Roman soldier, now git back on your donkey.
Yes, said Jesus, but what's the time ?.
What do you mean, 'what's the time ?', said the Roman soldier. I just
gave you a bloody Rolex.
I don't know how to tell the time, said Jesus. Honest.
You what ?, asked by Roman soldier, astonished. I thought you said you'd
been a barefoot doctor; if you can't tell the time, why do you want a Rolex
anyway ?.
Time waits for no one, said Jesus. Didn't you spot that great-looking
bird in the crowd over there ? Anyhow, you can take it off me again, when
I'm dead.

Jurriaan

Wood article in ATC

2003-10-03 Thread Louis Proyect

The latest issue of Against the Current has an article by Ellen Meiksins 
Wood that makes many of the same points in her radio interview that I 
commented on last week and which are developed at length in her new book 
Empire of Capital.

Wood:
In capitalism, it's economic imperatives, the compulsions of 
propertylessness, that force workers to sell their labor power for a 
wage and make it possible for capital to exercise power over them.  The 
capitalist mode of exploitation operates not by means of direct coercive 
power but through the economic medium of the market.

Obviously there's a lot of coercion in the workplace, but the 
distinctive characteristic of capitalist domination is power exercised 
not directly by masters but by markets; and what makes it possible is 
the market dependence of direct producers.

So that's the specific nature of class domination in capitalism, which 
differentiates it from other forms.  And there's an analogous difference 
between capitalist imperialism and precapitalist forms.  Precapitalist 
imperialism, to put it simply, was the direct exercise of coercive force 
to capture territory, to extract labor or resources from subject 
peoples, or to gain control of trade routes.

full: http://solidarity.igc.org/indexATC.html

---

This is obviously a bid to systematize the Brenner thesis and apply it 
across the board to various types of societies. I would only say that 
the phrase capitalist domination is power exercised not directly by 
masters but by markets is singularly undialectical as this item from 
the latest Village Voice should indicate. In Central America, excluding 
Costa Rica, it has been power exercised by masters and not by markets 
from the very beginning. If Del Monte is not a capitalist firm, then the 
term has no meaning.

Guatemalan peasants murdered on Del Monte banana plantation
Strange Fruit
by Matt Pacenza
October 1 - 7, 2003
MORALES, GUATEMALAFlorinda Lollo Martnez lost her job so your bananas 
could stay cheap. And now she's so desperate to provide food for her 
family that she's risking her life to grow corn on a former banana 
plantation, even though thugs linked to her former employer, Fresh Del 
Monte Produce, have been accused of murdering eight of her fellow 
farmers in the past two years.

(clip)

Local ranchers first started raising cattle on Del Monte land in the 
1970s, says Annie Bird, the co-director of Rights Action, which released 
a report on the Izabal violence this year. She says the arrangement here 
is hardly unique. There is an industry-wide practice, not just by Del 
Monte, of using cattle ranching as a way of maintaining control over 
land, she says, speaking from her office in Guatemala City. Cattle 
ranching has been not just an *economic activity, but a form of 
policing*.  (emphasis added)

These ranchers, particularly the Mendoza Mata and Ponce families, have 
reputations and influence that go far beyond their official business. 
They own nightclubs and hotels and bus lines. They fund political 
campaigns. In sworn testimony after the Lankin killings, a local 
policeman described Obdulio Mendoza Mata as one of the most powerful 
people in Izabal.

full: http://www.villagevoice.com/issues/0340/pacenza.php

--

The Marxism list: www.marxmail.org

White working-class support for Bush

2003-10-03 Thread Louis Proyect

Let Them East War
by?Arlie Hochschild
TomDispatch
October 02, 2003
(clip)

Until Nixon, Republicans had for a century written off the blue-collar
voter. But turning Marx on his head, Nixon appealed not to a desire for
real economic change but to the distress caused by the absence of it.
And it worked as it's doing again now. In the l972 contest between Nixon
and McGovern, 57% of the manual worker vote and 54% of the union vote
went to Nixon. (This meant 22 and 25-point gains for Nixon over his l968
presidential run.) After Nixon, other Republican presidents -- Ford,
Reagan, and Bush Sr. -- followed in the same footsteps, although not
always so cleverly.
Now George Bush Jr. is pursuing a sequel strategy by again appealing to
the emotions of male blue-collar voters. Only he's added a new element
to the mix. Instead of appealing, as Nixon did, to anger at economic
decline, Bush is appealing to fear of economic displacement, and
offering the Nascar Dad a set of villains to blame, and a hero to thank
-- George W. Bush.
Let's begin by re-imagining the blue-collar man, for we do not normally
think of him as a fearful man. The very term Nascar Dad like the
earlier term Joe Six Pack suggests, somewhat dismissively, an
I'm-alright-Jack kind of guy. We imagine him with his son, some money
in his pocket, in the stands with the other guys rooting for his
favorite driver and car. The term doesn't call to mind a restless
house-husband or a despondent divorcee living back in his parents' house
and seeing his kids every other weekend. In other words, the very image
we start with may lead us away from clues to his worldview, his
feelings, his politics and the links between these.
Since the l970s, the blue-collar man has taken a lot of economic hits.
The buying power of his paycheck, the size of his benefits, the security
of his job -- all these have diminished. As Ed Landry, a 62
year-old-machinist interviewed by Paul Solman on the Lehrer News Hour
said, We went to lunch and our jobs went to China. He searched for
another job and couldn't find one. He was even turned down for a job as
a grocery bagger. I was told that we'd get back to you. Did they?
Solman asked. No. I couldn't believe it myself. I couldn't get the
job. In today's jobless recovery, the average jobless stint for a man
like Landry is now 19 weeks, the longest since l983. Jobs that don't
even exist at present may eventually open up, experts reassure us, but
they aren't opening up yet. In the meantime, three out of every four
available jobs are low-level service jobs. A lot of workers like Ed
Landry, cast out of one economic sector, have been unable to land a job
even at the bottom of another.(13)
For anyone who stakes his pride on earning an honest day's pay, this
economic fall is, unsurprisingly enough, hard to bear. How, then, do
these blue-collar men feel about it? Ed Landry said he felt numb.
Others are anxious, humiliated and, as who wouldn't be, fearful. But in
cultural terms, Nascar Dad isn't supposed to feel afraid. What he can
feel though is angry. As Susan Faludi has described so well in her book
Stiffed, that is what many such men feel. As a friend who works in a
Maine lumber mill among blue-collar Republicans explained about his
co-workers, They felt that everyone else -- women, kids, minorities --
were all moving up, and they felt like they were moving down. Even the
spotted owl seemed like it was on its way up, while he and his job, were
on the way down. And he's angry.
full: http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=12ItemID=4294

--

The Marxism list: www.marxmail.org

Re: The oil and gas situation, according to the expurts

--- Bill Lear [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 On Friday, October 3, 2003 at 00:30:12 (-0700) Sabri
 Oncu writes:
 Leonard E. Read in David Shemano's link:
 
  The lesson I have to teach is this: Leave all
 creative energies
  uninhibited. Merely organize society to act in
 harmony with
  this lesson. Let society's legal apparatus remove
 all obstacles
  the best it can. Permit these creative know-hows
 freely to
  flow. Have faith that free men and women will
 respond to the
  Invisible Hand.
 
 Whose invisible hand is this David?

 After 20 years in the business sector, I know
 first-hand how
 relatively free men and women will respond to the
 Invisible Hand: they
 will seek to avoid it, creating structures such as
 corporations, and
 making contractual deals that lock-in others and
 that further
 protect themselves from the tyranny of the market.


 Bill

**

Only people with masochistic tendencies like being
freely smacked around by the invisible hand.  Most
people instinctively put their hands up to protect
themselves and then allow themselves to be subjects of
the greatest robbery in history--the wages system of
slavery.

Best,
Mike B)

=
*
--why do you slack your fighting-fury now?  It's hard for me, strong as I am, 
single-handed to breach the wall and cut a path to the ships--come, 
shoulder-to-shoulder!  The more we've got, the better the work will go!

One of Sarpedon's speeches in THE ILIAD--The Trojans storm the rampart
http://profiles.yahoo.com/swillsqueal

__
Do you Yahoo!?
The New Yahoo! Shopping - with improved product search
http://shopping.yahoo.com

Union city blue

Eastern union

Spurred on by an unravelling of the rules about tying the knot, people in
China are rushing to wed, writes Jonathan Watts

Friday October 3, 2003

If the Chinese media are to be believed, a great deal of jujubes will be
consumed this week. The Chinese dates, along with lotus seeds and peanuts,
are considered lucky dishes at wedding festivities, and there has reportedly
been an explosion of them in the last few days after liberal new marriage
regulations were introduced at the start of the month.
According to the local press, tens of thousands of couples began queuing
outside registration offices throughout the country as early as 5am. Such is
the demand to take vows that the ministry of civil affairs said it had
ordered registration offices to stay open throughout the foundation day
holiday for the first time, and to extend their hours for as long as
prospective brides and grooms were waiting outside their doors.

Behind the rush to wed is new legislation that allows people for the first
time to marry without an intrusive medical check and permission from their
bosses. The new rules, which are in line with the growing relaxation of
controls on economic and physical movement, also allow unhappy couples to
divorce more easily.

Complete article:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/elsewhere/journalist/story/0,7792,1055357,00.html

Re: Bush - dolt or ordinary criminal?

Bush - dolt or ordinary criminal?

Of course, he's both!

Think dialectically,
Mike B)

=
*
--why do you slack your fighting-fury now?  It's hard for me, strong as I am, 
single-handed to breach the wall and cut a path to the ships--come, 
shoulder-to-shoulder!  The more we've got, the better the work will go!

One of Sarpedon's speeches in THE ILIAD--The Trojans storm the rampart
http://profiles.yahoo.com/swillsqueal

__
Do you Yahoo!?
The New Yahoo! Shopping - with improved product search
http://shopping.yahoo.com

Re: The oil and gas situation, according to the expurts

Jurriaan Bendien wrote:

 Has anyone ever done a really comprehensive
 quantitative world study of the
 political economy of cars ?

Automobilization, if I remember correctly, was a central concern of
Baran  Sweezy's _Monopoly Capitalism_. They offer that as the core
explanation for both the boom of the '20s and of the '50s.

Carrol

(This is strictly from memory of a book I last looked at over 25 years
ago.)

Tue., Oct. 7: Edward Said Commemoration

Symposium to Commemorate the Life and Work of Edward W. Said (1935-2003)

Tuesday, October 7
3:00 PM - 4:00 PM: a screening of _The Shadow of the West_ (written
and narrated by Edward Said)
4:30 PM - 6:00 PM: a panel discussion on the life and work of Edward Said
Denney Hall, Room 311 (the Commons Room), 164 W. 17th Ave., Columbus, OH
Campus Map: http://www.acs.ohio-state.edu/map/linkbuildings/denneyhall.html
Campus Parking Map: http://www.tp.ohio-state.edu/maps/campusmap.shtml
Directions to Campus: http://www.osu.edu/visitors/directions.html
Downloadable Flyer:
http://www.service.ohio-state.edu/students/sif/EdwardSaid.doc
Moderator:
Christine Ballengee-Morris, Multicultural Center
Panelists:
Rasha Aly, The Lantern
Nina Berman, Germanic Languages and Literatures
Amanpal Garcha, English
Jane Hathaway, History
Joseph Levine, Philosophy
Rick Livingston, Comparative Studies/Institute for Collaborative
Research and Public Humanities
Ike Okafor-Newsum, African-American and African Studies
John Quigley, Moritz College of Law
-- refreshments provided --

-- free and open to the public --

Sponsors: Institute for Collaborative Research and Public Humanities
and Student International Forum
Contact: Roland Sintos Coloma, [EMAIL PROTECTED] or Yoshie
Furuhashi, [EMAIL PROTECTED], 614-668-6554
--
Yoshie
* Bring Them Home Now! http://www.bringthemhomenow.org/
* Calendars of Events in Columbus:
http://www.osu.edu/students/sif/calendar.html,
http://www.freepress.org/calendar.php,  http://www.cpanews.org/
* Student International Forum: http://www.osu.edu/students/sif/
* Committee for Justice in Palestine: http://www.osudivest.org/
* Al-Awda-Ohio: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Al-Awda-Ohio
* Solidarity: http://www.solidarity-us.org/

Re: George W. Bush, c'est fini

2003-10-03 Thread ravi

Yoshie Furuhashi wrote:
 Bush is finished -- it's time to plan ahead for a struggle against a
 Democratic President in the White House who won't end the occupation
 of Iraq (thirteen months is a shorter period of time than you think).


to all of you discussing this issue, i have a simple question: given
that the election is divided along states (ignoring the few states that
permit individual electoral votes), the republicans have a clear
advantage. since their base draws from bigotry and resentment, only
heightened since 9/11 and job flight (and of course immigrants taking
away american jobs), it would seem that they will not lose any of the
states that were solidly behind them (and the 2002 election seems to
confirm that). it then comes down to one or two swing states (and worse,
since there is a danger that the democrats could lose some of their
states). now my question: is my equation wrong? or, if it is right,
then, what in bush's fall do you think will cause people to change their
mind (or more importantly, their allegiance), in alabama, or even florida?

btw, NJ is supposed to be a democrat state. (perhaps this should not be
surprising but) the air waves have been full of criticism, by talk show
hosts, of local hero springsteen (due to his call for the impeachment of
bush).

--ravi

Re: George W. Bush, c'est fini

Even in the most liberal city in the US, the talk shows are right wing.

On Fri, Oct 03, 2003 at 11:00:38AM -0400, ravi wrote:

 btw, NJ is supposed to be a democrat state. (perhaps this should not be
 surprising but) the air waves have been full of criticism, by talk show
 hosts, of local hero springsteen (due to his call for the impeachment of
 bush).

 --ravi

--
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929

Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]

Re: forex spillovers

Jurriaan wrote:
 Is anybody actually explaining thoroughly how it is possible to have a
 jobless recovery at all ? 

the standard macro explanation points to Okun's Law, which says that for the US,
real GDP has to increase at about 3 per cent per year simply to keep the
unemployment rate constant. This type of growth counteracts the employment-
depressing effects of an increased labor force and the growth of labor productivity. 

Okun's Law should be called Okun's empirical generalization. 

 What are the 
 rigidities which
 prevent the marvellous price mechanism from doing its 
 balancing act, and
 establishing a steady employment-creating growth path in this 
 case ? In
 other words, why is the market not working properly now, and what is
 impeding market efficiency this time ? 

orthodox macro -- or what's called new Keynesianism, though it's neither new nor 
Keynesian -- points to wage rigidities as discouraging rapid equilibration of labor-
power markets. This, of course, encourages them to call for making labor-power 
markets less rigid, by smashing unions, abolishing the minimum wage, etc. 

 Am I to understand that now people are blaming 
 inappropriate foreign
 currency levels for economic woes in the USA ? If that is the 
 case, why
 aren't we getting good quantitative pictures of the world 
 currency markets
 so we can assess that ?

some blame the fact that the Yen and renibi (sp?) haven't risen as the dollar 
has fallen, so that US aggregate demand has been slow. These rigidities are
blamed on the Japanese and Chinese governments, respectively.

(The above is not my explanation, though Okun's Law works pretty well.)

Jim D.

Re: Bush - dolt or ordinary criminal?

Bill Lear wrote:

 These sound like tiny improvements, but they are STILL improvements.

 Oh?  And why do the body counts say the opposite?  Jimmy Carter's smile
 and peaceful rhetoric cloak a holy murderer.

  [CLIPPED: Some incoherent passage from K.C. that I can't construe.]

 Again, do the math yourself --- a realistic standard.  The numbers
 don't lie.

Yes. Yes. Yes.

I find it rather depressing that anyone on the left should offer any
defense of Carter whatever. After all, Carter bears rather more
responsibility for the present war than Bush does. Apparently it really
works to Smile and smile and be a villain.

It almost seems that some of us have become so despondent that we are
willing to say, O.K., go on with your mass slaughters, but please do it
with a smaile and good grammar.

If for no other reason, out of minimal respect for the life of Bishop
Romero leftists should refrain from defending his murderer.

Carter was, really, _that_ bad.

Carrol


 Bill

Re: George W. Bush, c'est fini

Yoshie writes Bush is finished -- 

I don't think we should put that much faith in polls. Rove could figure out some way 
to raise his
ward's popularity.

 it's time to plan ahead for a struggle against a
Democratic President in the White House who won't end the occupation
of Iraq (thirteen months is a shorter period of time than you think).

we should think of strategies that work no matter who gets elected.

Jim D.

Re: Bush - dolt or ordinary criminal?

somewhere, I read a column which posed three alternatives:

1. Bush is a fool.
2. Bush just doesn't care about the world or what's good for people.
3. Bush is a cynical manipulator.

the question posed was: does any of these alternatives make you sleep
better at night? 

Of course, the Bush team combines all three.


Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED]   http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine


 Bush - dolt or ordinary criminal?
 
 Of course, he's both!
 
 Think dialectically,
 Mike B)
 
 =
 *
 --why do you slack your fighting-fury now?  It's hard for 
 me, strong as I am, single-handed to breach the wall and cut 
 a path to the ships--come, shoulder-to-shoulder!  The more 
 we've got, the better the work will go!
 
 One of Sarpedon's speeches in THE ILIAD--The Trojans storm the rampart
 http://profiles.yahoo.com/swillsqueal
 
 __
 Do you Yahoo!?
 The New Yahoo! Shopping - with improved product search
 http://shopping.yahoo.com

Re: The oil and gas situation, according to the expurts

 Jurriaan Bendien wrote:
 
  Has anyone ever done a really comprehensive
  quantitative world study of the
  political economy of cars ?
 
 Automobilization, if I remember correctly, was a central concern of
 Baran  Sweezy's _Monopoly Capitalism_. They offer that as the core
 explanation for both the boom of the '20s and of the '50s.
 
 Carrol
 
 (This is strictly from memory of a book I last looked at over 25 years
 ago.)

Carrol, your memory is correct. BS posited a persistent tendency for the US economy to
fall into Depression-like stagnation, ever since the rise of Monopoly Capital in the 
1900s. 
One reason why there were short-lived periods of (limited) prosperity, in their books, 
was 
unexplained waves of innovation with accompanying infrastructural investment, centered 
on 
automobilization. (BTW, I don't find this very satisfying.) 

Jim D.

weather question

It seems to me that in previous years, I never heard of
Atlantic/Caribbean  hurricanes or tropical storms whose names started
with letters as high as L. (Of course, the names follow alphabetical
order.) This year, I've heard of one whose name starts with N. Are
there more tropical storms this year than in the past? (due to global
warming?) or are the media reporting them more? 

Previous meterologists have only interpreted hurricanes. The point is to
change them!


Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED]   http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine

Re: George W. Bush, c'est fini

2003-10-03 Thread Carl Remick

From: Yoshie Furuhashi [EMAIL PROTECTED]

Bush is finished -- it's time to plan ahead for a struggle against a
Democratic President in the White House who won't end the occupation
of Iraq (thirteen months is a shorter period of time than you think).
... Over all, the poll found, Americans are for the first time more
critical than not of Mr. Bush's ability to handle both foreign and
domestic problems, and a majority say the president does not share
their priorities. Thirteen months before the 2004 election, a solid
majority of Americans say the country is seriously on the wrong
track, a classic danger sign for incumbents, and only about half of
Americans approve of Mr. Bush's overall job performance. That is
roughly the same as when Mr. Bush took office after the razor-close
2000 election. . . .
Whoa there, hold the confetti, Yoshie.  You excised the key graf that
followed the one above, i.e.: But more than 6 in 10 Americans still say the
president has strong qualities of leadership, more than 5 in 10 say he has
more honesty and integrity than most people in public life and 6 in 10
credit him with making the country safer from terrorist attack.  Americans
are still in denial so deep that spelunkers should be conducting national
polls these days.  Regretably, I wouldn't rule out Bush the wolverine just
yet.
Carl

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Re: The oil and gas situation, according to the expurts

2003-10-03 Thread Carl Remick

From: Mike Ballard [EMAIL PROTECTED]

Only people with masochistic tendencies like being
freely smacked around by the invisible hand.  Most
people instinctively put their hands up to protect
themselves ...
[Some, of course, are better positioned than others to blunt the blows :)
The following is from today's Wall Street Journal.]
Executive Pay Keeps Rising, Despite Outcry

... Surprisingly, despite all the negative publicity [about executive
compensation], many big-business bosses continue to win this battle [for
higher pay at the expense of shareholders] as they find new forms of
compensation to make up for more modest salary increases and bonuses paid
during the economic downturn 
Carl

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Re: forex spillovers

Hi Jim,

Thanks very much (I haven't gone outside yet, just reading your post).

 the standard macro explanation points to Okun's Law, which says that for
the US,
 real GDP has to increase at about 3 per cent per year simply to keep the
 unemployment rate constant. This type of growth counteracts the
employment-
 depressing effects of an increased labor force and the growth of labor
productivity.

 Okun's Law should be called Okun's empirical generalization.

Yes, but, according to this site, there are two versions of Okun's law:
www.amherst.edu/~econ53/Okun.PDF+definition+of+Okun%27s+Lawhl=nlie=UTF-8

 orthodox macro -- or what's called new Keynesianism, though it's neither
new nor
 Keynesian -- points to wage rigidities as discouraging rapid equilibration
of labor-
 power markets. This, of course, encourages them to call for making
labor-power
 markets less rigid, by smashing unions, abolishing the minimum wage, etc.

Yes, but if you look at the New Zealand data, where labour market relations
were unquestionably de-rigiditized and livened up, the result was greater
income disparity and a decline of modal real wages. Everybody admits that
household incomes are higher in Australia, despite greater de-rigiditisation
in New Zealand. But of course they didn't believe the General Theory anymore
in New Zealand.

 some blame the fact that the Yen and renminbi haven't risen as the dollar
 has fallen, so that US aggregate demand has been slow. These rigidities
are
 blamed on the Japanese and Chinese governments, respectively.

But if you look at capital and money movements between Europe and the USA,
and trade between Europe and the USA, they are greater by value and volume
than the corresponding trade with Japan and China. Therefore, the focus on
Japan and China probably means that the empire thinks the Japanese and the
Chinese are weaker and easier to beat, or pick off. But knowing a little bit
about the Chinese and the Japanese, they actually have considerable grunt
and clout. Therefore, the battle against the so-called slit-eyes and
gooks (sic.) might create a spot of bother for condom economics.

I feel depressed and I better get myself organised, you know.

Thanks again for your comments.

Jurriaan

Re: forex spillovers

I wrote:
  the standard macro explanation points to Okun's Law, 
  which says that for  the US,
  real GDP has to increase at about 3 per cent per year 
  simply to keep the
  unemployment rate constant. This type of growth counteracts the
  [unemployment-raising] effects of an increased labor force and the 
  growth of labor productivity.
 
  Okun's Law should be called Okun's empirical generalization.

Jurriaan writes: 
 Yes, but, according to this site, there are two versions of 
 Okun's law:
http://www.amherst.edu/~econ53/Okun.PDF

the two versions are largely consistent with each other, as the file
indicates. 

 orthodox macro ... points to wage rigidities as discouraging rapid
equilibration
 of labor-power markets. This, of course, encourages them to call for
making
 labor-power markets less rigid, by smashing unions, abolishing the
minimum wage, etc.

Yes, but if you look at the New Zealand data, where labour market
relations
were unquestionably de-rigiditized and livened up, the result was
greater
income disparity and a decline of modal real wages. Everybody admits
that
household incomes are higher in Australia, despite greater
de-rigiditisation
in New Zealand. But of course they didn't believe the General Theory
anymore
in New Zealand.

I wasn't advocating orthodox macro. But the orthodoxy would point to a
trade-off: in
return for lower unemployment, NZ paid the cost of greater inequality
and lower wages.
Or is unemployment not lower in NZ? If unemployment didn't fall, then
that contradicts
the orthodoxy. 

 some blame the fact that the Yen and renminbi haven't risen as the
dollar
 has fallen, so that US aggregate demand has been slow. These
rigidities are
 blamed on the Japanese and Chinese governments, respectively.

But if you look at capital and money movements between Europe and the
USA,
and trade between Europe and the USA, they are greater by value and
volume
than the corresponding trade with Japan and China. Therefore, the focus
on
Japan and China probably means that the empire thinks the Japanese and
the
Chinese are weaker and easier to beat, or pick off. But knowing a
little bit
about the Chinese and the Japanese, they actually have considerable
grunt
and clout. Therefore, the battle against the so-called slit-eyes and
gooks (sic.) might create a spot of bother for condom economics.

Again, I wasn't advocating orthodox macro. But the total volume of
capital 
and money movements doesn't seem relevant here. The pundits focus on the
size 
of the trade deficits. 

Just because there's a taint of racism in the criticism of China's or
Japan's policies 
doesn't mean that the rest of the critique is totally off-base. 

I think there's a contradiction within the US ruling class. An
appreciation of the renibi (sp?) 
would aid US manufacturing and other exporting or import-competing
sectors and help
Bush get re-elected. But if the renibi were to rise, it would hurt
existing fixed investments in 
China by US corporations, by hurting demand for their products. I don't
know how big this
contradiction is, but it seems real. 

Jim D.

intellectual property

[Federal Register: October 3, 2003 (Volume 68, Number 192)]
[Notices]
[Page 57503]
From the Federal Register Online via GPO Access [wais.access.gpo.gov]
[DOCID:fr03oc03-134]

===
---

OFFICE OF THE UNITED STATES TRADE REPRESENTATIVE


Identification of Countries Under Section 182 of the Trade Act of
1974: Request for Public Comment

AGENCY: Office of the United States Trade Representative.

ACTION: Request for written submissions from the public.

---

SUMMARY: Section 182 of the Trade Act of 1974 (Trade Act) (19 U.S.C.
2242), requires the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to
identify countries that deny adequate and effective protection of
intellectual property rights or deny fair and equitable market access
to U.S. persons who rely on intellectual property protection. Section
182 is commonly referred to as the ``Special 301'' provisions in the
Trade Act. In addition, USTR is required to determine which of those
countries should be identified as Priority Foreign Countries. On May 1,
2003, USTR announced the results of the 2003 Special 301 review and
stated that an Out-of-Cycle Review (OCR) would be conducted in the fall
for the Republic of Korea. USTR requests written comments from the
public concerning the acts, policies, and practices relevant for this
review under section 182 of the Trade Act.

DATES: Submissions must be received on or before 12 noon on Monday,
October 27, 2003.

ADDRESSES: All comments should be sent to Sybia Harrison, Special
Assistant to the Section 301 Committee, at the following e-mail address:
[EMAIL PROTECTED], with ``Special 301 Out-of-Cycle Review'' in
the subject line. Please not, only electronic submissions will be
accepted.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Mark Wu, Director for Intellectual
Property, (202) 395-6864; or Victoria Espinel, Associate General
Counsel, (202) 395-7305, Office of the United States Trade
Representative.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Pursuant to section 182 of the Trade Act,
USTR must identify those countries that deny adequate and effective
protection for intellectual property rights or deny fair and equitable
market access to U.S. persons who rely on intellectual property
protection. Those countries that have the most onerous or egregious
acts, policies, or practices and whose acts, policies, or practices
have the greatest adverse impact (actual or potential) on relevant U.S.
products may be identified as Priority Foreign Countries. Acts,
policies, or practices that are the basis of a country's designation as
a Priority Foreign Country are normally the subject of an investigation
under the section 301 provisions of the Trade Act.
On May 1, 2003, USTR announced the results of the 2003 Special 301
review, including an announcement that an Out-of-Cycle Review (OCR)
would be conducted in the fall for the Republic of Korea. Additional
countries may also be reviewed as a result of the comments received
pursuant to this notice, or as warranted by events.
Requirements for Comments: Comments should include a description of
the problems experienced and the effect of the acts, policies, and
practices on U.S. industry. Comments should be as detailed as possible
and should provide all necessary information for assessing the effect
of the act, policies, and practice. Any comments that include
quantitative loss claims should be accompanied by the methodology used
in calculating such estimated losses.
Comments must be in English and sent electronically. No submissions
will be accepted via postal service mail. Documents should be submitted
as either WordPerfect, MS Word, or text (.TXT) files. Supporting
documentation submitted as spreadsheets are acceptable as Quattro Pro
or Excel files. A submitter requesting that information contained in a
comments be treated as confidential business information must certify
that information is business confidential and would not customarily be
released to the public by the submitter. A non-confidential
information, the file name of the business confidential version should
begin with the characters ``BC-'', and the file name of the public
version should begin with the character ``P-''. The ``P'' or ``B''
should be followed by the name of the submitter. Submissions should not
include separate cover letters; information that might appear in a
cover letter should be included in the submission itself. To the extent
possible,any attachments to the submission should be included in the
same file as the submission itself, and not as separate files.
All comments should be sent to Sybia Harrison, Special Assistant to
the section 301 Committee, at the following e-mail address: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
GOV, with ``Special 301 Out-of-Cycle Review'' in the
subject line. Please note, only electronic submissions will be

Liberals in Denial, Part 6

2003-10-03 Thread Anders Schneiderman

Outsourcing IT overseas a problem?  Nah, we just need more education!

http://www.cio.com/archive/092203/reich.html

Fall/Winter 2003 Issue of CIO Magazine 

Robert Reich
Jobless in America


I.T. EMPLOYMENT is down 20 percent since early 2001. Salaries are down too. In 2000, 
senior software engineers earned up to $130,000. The same job now pays no more than 
$100,000. In 2000, entry-level computer help desk staffers earned about $55,000; now, 
$35,000. 

The main reason is the lousy economy. First came the loud pop of the high-tech bubble, 
then 9/11, then corporate fraud. Since the start of 2001, 2.6 million private-sector 
jobs have disappeared in America. It's been the longest job-market downturn since the 
Great Depression. 

Add in productivity gains that have been growing much faster than the economy, 
especially in technology sectors, and you've got even less need for labor. Machines 
can do more. The enormous productivity gains brought on by IT itself has, ironically, 
reduced the need for many midlevel project managers. Economic output has expanded at 
an annual rate of 2.7 percent since the fourth quarter of 2001. During the same 
period, worker productivity (output per hour of work) has expanded at a rate of 4.2 
percent. That gap between economic output and productivity is the widest yet. Until 
growth catches up with productivity gains, don't expect a lot of jobs to return. 

But there's a third reason: the trend toward the global outsourcing of IT. This year, 
more than half of all Fortune 500 companies are outsourcing some software development. 
It's estimated that by 2005, more than 80 percent of such companies will join the 
trend. American financial services companies expect to transfer half a million jobs9 
percent of financial services employmentto foreign nations during the next five 
years. U.S. technology companies now pay foreign organizations $10 billion a year to 
handle data entry, analysis, customer service and computer programming. 

DON'T GET ME WRONG. Global outsourcing is a small factor relative to the bad economy 
and the productivity gains wrought by automation. The number of IT jobs sent abroad 
still accounts for a tiny proportion of America's 10-million-strong IT workforce. But 
there's no doubt that the trend is gathering steam. 

The reason is that foreigners can do a lot of IT jobs just as well and much more 
cheaply than they can be done in the United States. The starting salary of a software 
engineer in India is around $5,000. Experienced engineers get between $10,000 to 
$15,000. Top IT professionals might earn up to $20,000. 

Their numbers are growing. India, where the bulk of foreign IT jobs are, already has 
520,000 IT professionals. It's adding 2 million college graduates a year, many of whom 
are attracted to the burgeoning IT sector. 

Meanwhile, it's become far easier to coordinate such work from headquarters in 
America. Overseas cable costs have fallen 80 percent since 1999. With digitization and 
high-speed data networks, an Indian office park can seem right next door. 

A study by Forrester Research estimates that by 2015, some 3.3 million more American 
white-collar jobs will shift from the United States to low-cost countries, mostly to 
India. 

Underlying the trend toward foreign outsourcing of IT is the reality of tough global 
competition and a sagging domestic economy. Both are putting immense pressure on 
American companies to reduce costs. That's why more and more organizations are buying 
rather than making, and outsourcing has become the name of the game. And as salaries 
account for about 70 percent of most companies' expenses, the cost-cutting has been 
concentrated on payrolls. 

In the old way of thinking, employees were an investment just like factories or 
equipment. Adding workers was a major expense, and cutting them was a decision not 
taken lightly. Today, most employees are seen as units to be stockpiled or shed as 
business warrants. Technology not only allows fewer people to do the jobs of many; it 
also allows their skills to be taught to anyone, quickly, anywhere around the world. 
Hence, most companies have started to think of wages as variable rather than fixed 
costs. 

This is good news for consumers. Prices are low. Inflation has become a nonissue. The 
cost of many technology goods continues to drop. 

But it's not necessarily good news for American workers, especially high-tech 
employees who used to be shielded from the direct effects of global competition. 
Manufacturing workers have been losing jobs to low-cost foreign workers for years. 
Low-skilled service workers, like call-center operators, were the next to lose jobs to 
low-cost foreigners. Now, it's professional and technical workers' turn. 


IN THE SHORT TERM, when the U.S. economy bounces back from recessionas it surely will 
within the next 18 monthswe can expect many IT jobs to return. But given the 
long-term trend in foreign outsourcing, what's to

Re: The oil and gas situation - Odyssey thinks ahead

Thanks to you all for all your input into this weighty discussion, I am a
little wheezy though, must quit smoking (how could Marx pack in all those
cigars ???).

Here's a quote from Freeman  Louca, As Time Goes By (Oxford University
Press, p. 274:

B.H. Klein showed that in 1900, steam and electric vehicles accounted for
about three-quarters of the four thousand automobiles estimated to have
been produced by 57 American firms (Klein 1977: 91). However, by 1917 about
three and a half million automobiles had been registered in the United
States, of which less than 50,000 were electric. Steam vehicles were
disappearing; the last major steam manufacturrer, the Stanley Motor Carriage
Company, produced 730 steam vehicles in 1917 - fewer than Ford produced in
one day before lunch (Volti 1990: 43). The simple explanation of the decline
of steam and electric vehicles seemed to be, with the benefit of hindsight,
that the internal combustion (gasoline) engine was 'better' or even
'optimal'. However in his fascinating article ''Why Internal Combustion ?',
Rudi Volti shows that things were by no means so simple. In the very early
days both steam and electric cars had many technical advantages, and the IC
automobile had some severe disadvantages, notably the sliding gear
transmission. invented by Emile Levassor (the 'L' in 'P' and L') in 1891.
His own description of his invention became famous: 'C'est brutal mais ca
marche !'. The electric car was simpler to start and drive, having no clutch
or transmission; moreover, it was quiet, reliable, and odourless. Yet by the
1920s the internal combustion engine completely dominated to car market,
leavng the steamers and electrics to very specialized niche markets or
museums. A longer operating range was undoubtedly one of the decisive
advantages of the IC engine, but this was not purely a technical matter. The
chain of refuelling stations and repair and maintenance facilities could
conceivably have been organized on a different basis, given different
strategies and policies of the utlities, manufacturrers, and regulators.
Indeed, in the 1990s policies were being developed to cope with battery
recharging services for electric cars in California and elsewhere, because
of the polution problems caused by millions of IC engines. However, the
'lock-in' to the IC engine makes any such change to an alternative system a
truly massive undertaking. There were over 500 million automobiles in use in
the world by the mid-1990s. The availability of cheap low-cost petrol
(gasoline) was a decisive advantage of the IC engine (Section 8.4), and
compounded by this vast lock-in to the internal combustion engine was the
success of the Ford's assembly line, which reduced the cost and price of the
Model T dramatically. The price of a model T fell from $850 in 1908 to $600
in 1913 and to $360 in 1916, because of a combination of organisational,
technical and social innovations.

The truth is that I bought a second-hand orange Ford Escort in New Zealand,
must have been 1992. Or was it 1993 ? It crapped out eventually, I could
barely drive it back from the hypnotherapist that I had been to see for a
quite smoking session.

I got blisters on my fingers (Sir Richard Starkey, at the end of Helter
Skelter by The Beatles).

Jurriaan

Re: forex spillovers

Hi Jim,

 Or is unemployment not lower in NZ? If unemployment didn't fall, then
 that contradicts
 the orthodoxy.

Real unemployment is difficult for me to estimate momentarily, because of
the compilation of data and statistical presentation. For example, if you
just worked a few hours a week they'd count you as employed, and so on. So
then you have to take a whole labour force data set and a demographic data
set to work out what real unemployment actually is (total population -
active population -total labour force -employed labour force -unemployed
labour force, taking into account jobless research (important in assessing
casual labour) and actual working hours. I would have to contact Steve
Maharey MP (Labour Party) who got a ministerial job working on this type of
thing (the pay is pretty good, much better than if you are a statistician).
Only then can you evaluate registered unemployment figures.

The basic orthodox reply to unemployment in New Zealand was saying well,
what is work anyway ? (because they don't have Marx's theory of value, only
utility, as reflected in car sales I mentioned in a previous post, and then
I bought my Orange Ford escort with the Rosa Luxemburg sticker on it) and so
we ought to investigate this question more objectively.

 Again, I wasn't advocating orthodox macro. But the total volume of
 capital
 and money movements doesn't seem relevant here. The pundits focus on the
 size
 of the trade deficits.

Well I don't have any data on that handy here at this moment, but trade
deficit data takes a long time to produce and usually appears quite some
time after the interval to which it applies. They make quarterly estimates
of some deficits, but how accurate would those estimates be, for short-term
investment decision making ?

 Just because there's a taint of racism in the criticism of China's or
 Japan's policies
 doesn't mean that the rest of the critique is totally off-base.

True, but I am questioning whether we are getting into another I can't see
the wood for the trees dispute where we conveniently and ideologically
focus on a problem which isn't the real problem.
'

 I think there's a contradiction within the US ruling class. An
 appreciation of the renibi (sp?)
 would aid US manufacturing and other exporting or import-competing
 sectors and help
 Bush get re-elected. But if the renibi were to rise, it would hurt
 existing fixed investments in
 China by US corporations, by hurting demand for their products. I don't
 know how big this
 contradiction is, but it seems real.

Yes but then you say that the capitalists should vote for Bush if they want
the renibi to appreciate, and vote for Dean if they don't want to force this
policy on the Chinese.

But if we look at the quantitative picture (which I cannot do at this
moment) then we would say that really they are making a mountain out of a
molehill, and they should trace the problem back to its roots. By the way,
if the renibi rises, this has multiple effects. Yes, it would hurt demand,
but, for example, if the foreign fixed assets are held in renibi, then their
value rises also, but that trades off against a smaller profit rate. I
suspect that this is the real reason: the currency level puts pressure on
both profit rates and demand. So then what do they actually do in terms of
valuating the asset holdings in China and Japan ?

In my reply to (Aussie) Gary on Marxmail a while back, I said that the moral
of the neo-liberal story was really that everybody needed better negotiation
skills, because that is HOW we could make the market equilibrium work better
(everybody gains some, loses some - Sabri who takes the piss out of me for
seeing some value in game-theory misses the significance of that - the idea
being that being better negotiators or hagglers or whores, we are being more
humanised as a result, just as Adam Smith suggests with his natural
propensity theorem).

So what are they going to do now, bomb the Chinese and the Japanese, or what
?

I have to go now, I am stuffed.

Jurriaan

Re: weather question

2003-10-03 Thread Eugene Coyle

I had a good friend who disappeared -- along with the plane, a WB 50 --
penetrating a hurricane for meteorolgy research.
And yesterday I got an e-mail from an alternative energy advocate who
wants to collect the wind energy in hurricanes to solve all our problems.
Gene

Devine, James wrote:

It seems to me that in previous years, I never heard of
Atlantic/Caribbean  hurricanes or tropical storms whose names started
with letters as high as L. (Of course, the names follow alphabetical
order.) This year, I've heard of one whose name starts with N. Are
there more tropical storms this year than in the past? (due to global
warming?) or are the media reporting them more?
Previous meterologists have only interpreted hurricanes. The point is to
change them!

Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED]   http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine

Re: intellectual property

No intellectual property rights, no censorship vs. intellectual property
rights AND censorship.

Why do we end up with BOTH intellectual property rights AND censorship ?

Such are the mysteries of the rich in a capitalist, class-divided society
dependent on exploitation and expropriation.

J.

Re: Bush - dolt or ordinary criminal?

Mike Ballard wrote:

 Bush - dolt or ordinary criminal?

 Of course, he's both!

 Think dialectically,
 Mike B)


If Ellen Meiksins Wood's explanation of U.S. imperialism at the present
time is correct, then a dialectical explanation actually holds here:
there is an internal relation between the criminality and the stupidity
of the u.s. government. Both are imposed by current world relations of
capital, and neither dependent (primarily) on the particular _dramatis
personae_ of a given moment. (Different personnel will give different
policies, but the differences will be wiggles on a chart, not a new
course.)

Come to think of it, her explanation can be metaphorically represented
by Pericles' argument in defense of Athenian imperialism: Athens was
riding a tiger and daren't get off. :-)

Carrol

Re: The oil and gas situation - Odyssey thinks ahead

2003-10-03 Thread Eugene Coyle

Arnold has promised to put hydrogen refueling stations every twenty
miles along California freeways.  And to take advantage of that, he's
converting his Hummer to fuel cell.
Gene

Jurriaan Bendien wrote:

Thanks to you all for all your input into this weighty discussion, I am a
little wheezy though, must quit smoking (how could Marx pack in all those
cigars ???).
Here's a quote from Freeman  Louca, As Time Goes By (Oxford University
Press, p. 274:
B.H. Klein showed that in 1900, steam and electric vehicles accounted for
about three-quarters of the four thousand automobiles estimated to have
been produced by 57 American firms (Klein 1977: 91). However, by 1917 about
three and a half million automobiles had been registered in the United
States, of which less than 50,000 were electric. Steam vehicles were
disappearing; the last major steam manufacturrer, the Stanley Motor Carriage
Company, produced 730 steam vehicles in 1917 - fewer than Ford produced in
one day before lunch (Volti 1990: 43). The simple explanation of the decline
of steam and electric vehicles seemed to be, with the benefit of hindsight,
that the internal combustion (gasoline) engine was 'better' or even
'optimal'. However in his fascinating article ''Why Internal Combustion ?',
Rudi Volti shows that things were by no means so simple. In the very early
days both steam and electric cars had many technical advantages, and the IC
automobile had some severe disadvantages, notably the sliding gear
transmission. invented by Emile Levassor (the 'L' in 'P' and L') in 1891.
His own description of his invention became famous: 'C'est brutal mais ca
marche !'. The electric car was simpler to start and drive, having no clutch
or transmission; moreover, it was quiet, reliable, and odourless. Yet by the
1920s the internal combustion engine completely dominated to car market,
leavng the steamers and electrics to very specialized niche markets or
museums. A longer operating range was undoubtedly one of the decisive
advantages of the IC engine, but this was not purely a technical matter. The
chain of refuelling stations and repair and maintenance facilities could
conceivably have been organized on a different basis, given different
strategies and policies of the utlities, manufacturrers, and regulators.
Indeed, in the 1990s policies were being developed to cope with battery
recharging services for electric cars in California and elsewhere, because
of the polution problems caused by millions of IC engines. However, the
'lock-in' to the IC engine makes any such change to an alternative system a
truly massive undertaking. There were over 500 million automobiles in use in
the world by the mid-1990s. The availability of cheap low-cost petrol
(gasoline) was a decisive advantage of the IC engine (Section 8.4), and
compounded by this vast lock-in to the internal combustion engine was the
success of the Ford's assembly line, which reduced the cost and price of the
Model T dramatically. The price of a model T fell from $850 in 1908 to $600
in 1913 and to $360 in 1916, because of a combination of organisational,
technical and social innovations.
The truth is that I bought a second-hand orange Ford Escort in New Zealand,
must have been 1992. Or was it 1993 ? It crapped out eventually, I could
barely drive it back from the hypnotherapist that I had been to see for a
quite smoking session.
I got blisters on my fingers (Sir Richard Starkey, at the end of Helter
Skelter by The Beatles).
Jurriaan

Gregory Wilpert on US News @World Report article

2003-10-03 Thread michael a. lebowitz

An important item from
www.venezualanalysis.com,
the new English-language source of news and analysis from
Venezuela.
in
solidarity,

michael
--
Magazine's reputation seriously damaged

U.S. News World Report Spreads Disinformation about Chavez Government Support for Terrorism

Thursday, Oct 02, 2003
By: Gregory Wilpert

An article recently appeared in one of the largest U.S. news magazines, an article which will remind well-informed readers of a typical disinformation campaign. The article in question, Terror Close to Home, by Linda Robinson, appeared in U.S. News and World Report (10/6/03) [i] and claims to have evidence that Venezuelas President, Hugo Chavez, is flirting with terrorism. The appearance of a baseless article like this, combined with recent statements by Gen. James Hill, head of the Southern Command, that Venezuelas Margarita Island is a haven for Islamic terrorist groups, suggests that the Bush administration is setting the stage for declaring Venezuela a rogue state.

However, the article is so full of false conclusions, unnamed U.S. government sources, distortions, and outright falsehoods, that one has to wonder what the authors real agenda is. Lets examine the articles problems one by one.

Falsehoods Distortions

Linda Robinson claims that Venezuela is providing support that could prove useful to radical Islamic groups. She goes on to say, U.S. News has learned that Chavez's government has issued thousands of cedulas, the equivalent of Social Security cards, to people from places such as Cuba, Colombia, and Middle Eastern nations that play host to foreign terrorist organizations. First of all, it is probably true that Venezuela issued identification cards (cedulas) to citizens of these countries, something that the U.S. does too, whenever it grants residency to a non-U.S. citizen, in the form of a green card. The issuance of such identification papers, if anything, helps track residents illegal activity, rather than obscures it, as the article suggests. The accusation from an unnamed American official that more than a thousand Colombians had received cedulas is meaningless in a country that has several hundred thousand Colombians living there as legal residents.

Robinson then says that U.S. officials believe that the Venezuelan government is issuing the documents to people who should not be getting them and that some of these cedulas were subsequently used to obtain Venezuelan passports and even American visas, which could allow the holder to elude immigration checks and enter the United States. First, on what basis do U.S. officials believe that these foreign residents should not receive residency? How could they possibly know that just from glancing at a list of names and nationalities? Second, since when can a citizen of a Middle Eastern country receive a U.S. visa more easily just because he or she has Venezuelan residency? If they can, then that is the responsibility of the U.S. government, not the Venezuelan. As Chavez suggested in a press conference with foreign journalists on October 1, perhaps U.S. Ambassador Charles Shapiro should be investigated for supporting terrorism, if he is granting visas to terrorists, as the Robinson article implies.

Another issue that Robinson raises is the claim that Venezuelas Arab communities are becoming centers for terrorist sympathizers. To bolster this claim, Robinson cites an unnamed Venezuelan analyst, who says that the Venezuelan-Arab friendship association on Venezuelas Margarita Island is a fortress with armed guards. Aside from the fact that most important buildings in Venezuela have armed guards, such an observation is completely meaningless. According to such a standard, the U.S. embassy would have to be the center of terrorism, since it is by far the most fortified and fortress-like building in all of Venezuela.

Robinsons claims are also undermined by a recent in-depth investigation by Michele Salcedo, of Floridas Sun-Sentinel (9/5/03). Unlike Robinson, Salcedo visited Margarita Island and spoke to the people there. Her investigation casts serious doubt that there are any terrorist cells on the island, as Robinson and Gen. James Hill, head of the U.S. Southern Command claim.

Hills accusation that Arabs on Margarita Island are involved in money-laundering, drug trafficking, or arms deals is supposed to prove that there is Venezuelan government support for terrorism, but actually it proves no such thing. It is well known that banks throughout the world and especially in the Caribbean are in one way or another involved in money-laundering. If the accusation is true, then perhaps the Venezuelan government should crack down on this, but then the U.S. government ought to make a formal request and not let unnamed officials work with journalists who have a political agenda to make baseless accusations.

Robinson assumes that her truly weak

Re: weather question

We need them.  Hurricanes clean out the pollution in estuaries.  With more
pollution 



On Fri, Oct 03, 2003 at 08:54:49AM -0700, Devine, James wrote:
 It seems to me that in previous years, I never heard of
 Atlantic/Caribbean  hurricanes or tropical storms whose names started
 with letters as high as L. (Of course, the names follow alphabetical
 order.) This year, I've heard of one whose name starts with N. Are
 there more tropical storms this year than in the past? (due to global
 warming?) or are the media reporting them more?

 Previous meterologists have only interpreted hurricanes. The point is to
 change them!

 
 Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED]   http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine

--
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929

Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]

Can US elections be democratic at all ? A note on American game theory

Cde Macdonald Stainsby draw my attention to this site:

http://www.bartcop.com/diebold.htm

The Boomtown Rats were formed in Dun Laoghaire, near Dublin, Ireland, in
1975 by a former journalist Bob Geldof (vocals - born 5 Oct. 1954), Johnnie
Fingers (keyboards - real name John Moylett, born 10, Sep. 1956), Gerry Cott
(guitar), Garry Roberts (guitar - born 16 June 1954), Pete Briquette (bass -
real name Patrick Cusack, born 2 July 1954), and Simon Crowe (drums). The
name of the band was taken from Woody Guthrie's novel Bound for Glory.
The group moved to London in October 1976 and signed to Ensign Records.
Their debut single, Lookin' After No. 1, was released in August 1977. It was
the first of nine straight singles to make the U.K. Top 15, reaching to 11.
The first LP The Boomtown Rats, was released in next month. In November 1978
the band appeared on ITV's Get It Together and got their first number one
hit; Rat Trap was taken from LP Tonic for the Troops. A Tonic for the Troops
was released in the U.S. on Columbia Records in February 1979 with two
tracks from The Boomtown Rats substituted for tracks on the U.K. version.

In 1979 the band toured in USA from February to May and appeared at the
California Music Festival with Ted Nugent, Aerosmith, Cheap Trick and Van
Halen. The next single, I Don't Like Mondays was the big one for Boomtown
Rats and their second number one hit in UK (July 28). This record was
subjected to an unofficial ban by most US radio stations, who were wary of
legal action from the parents of a schoolgirl (Brenda Spencer from San
Diego) who shot her classmates 29th January 1979, explaining her reason as
she that didn't like Mondays. The single was contained on the Rats' third
album, The Fine Art of Surfacing, released in October 1979. The album also
contained their next U.K. Top Ten hit, SSomeone's Looking at You.

In the beginning of 1980 band sets off a lengthy world tour, covering
Europe, USA, Japan and Australia. In May I Don't Like Mondays won the Best
Pop Song and Outstanding British Lyric categories at the 25th annual Ivor
Novello Award. The Boomtown Rats released their final U.K. Top Ten hit,
Banana Republic, in November 1980, followed by their fourth album, Mondo
Bongo in January 1981. At this point, guitarist Gerry Cott left the group
and the band continue as quintet.

The lyrics of Banana Republic went like this:

BANANA REPUBLIC

Banana Republic - septic isle
Screaming in the suffering sea
It sounds like die, die, die
Everywhere I go now - everywhere I see
The black and blue uniforms
Police and freeze

And I wonder do you wonder,
When you're sleeping with your whore.
Sharing beds with history
Is like a lickin' running sores.
Forty shades of green, yeah
Sixty shades of red
Heroes going cheap these days
Price: A bullet in the head.

Banana Republic - septic isle
Suffer in the screaming sea . . .
It sounds like cry, cry, cry
Take your hand and lead you,
Up a garden path.
Let me stand aside here
And watch you pass.
Striking up a soldier's song,
Another tune -
It begs too many questions
And answer too.

Banana Republic - septic isle
Suffer in the screaming sea
It sounds like die, die, die
The purple and the pinstripe
Mutely shake their heads.
A silence shrieking volumes
A violence worse than they condemn.
Stab you in the back, yeah
Laughing in your face
Glad to see the place again -
It's a pity nothing's changed.

Banana Republic - septic isle
Suffer in the screaming sea
It sounds like die, die, die
Banana Republic - septic isle
Suffer in the screaming sea
It sounds like die, die, die

Jurriaan

Re: Vegatative states and neuroscience: From Hari Kumar

2003-10-03 Thread Perelman, Michael

Doug wrote:
One of the key areas for the disabled rights movement is cognitive issues. To be 
clear when I use this term, cognitive, many disabled people do not use
it in broad context, but to mean a specific area of disability.  Cognitive for me is 
involvement of the brain in a disability.  Schizophrenia,
developmental disability, blindness, dyslexia and so forth have cognitive issues.  
This article in the NY Times goes to the heart of the physician
assisted suicide movement.  The disability rights movement takes a strong stand on the 
rights of disabled people, and contra to philosophers like
Peter Singer of Princeton advocate euthanasia for a variety of disabled people.  I do 
not think the medical profession is the place for these issues
to be fought out, i.e. this is a social issue, and a class issue.  However, in some 
cases in a practical sense this is where the debate is currently
waged as well as by election for the right to suicide.  

Question: Hi Doug: I would not disagree with most of your premises. But please explain 
the class issue here.
Hari Kumar


-
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929

Re: Vegatative states and neuroscience: From Hari Kumar

Doug wrote:
 One of the key areas for the disabled rights movement is 
 cognitive issues. To be clear when I use this term, 
 cognitive, many disabled people do not use
 it in broad context, but to mean a specific area of 
 disability.  Cognitive for me is involvement of the brain in 
 a disability.  Schizophrenia,
 developmental disability, blindness, dyslexia and so forth 
 have cognitive issues.  

For what it's worth, dyslexia and many developmental disabilities are more perceptual 
or information-processing (awareness) problems rather than being cognitive (knowing  
judgement) problems. 
Jim

Re: Bush - dolt or ordinary criminal?

--- Carrol Cox [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 I find it rather depressing that anyone on the left
 should offer any
 defense of Carter whatever. After all, Carter bears
 rather more
 responsibility for the present war than Bush does.
 Apparently it really
 works to Smile and smile and be a villain.

 It almost seems that some of us have become so
 despondent that we are
 willing to say, O.K., go on with your mass
 slaughters, but please do it
 with a smaile and good grammar.

 Carrol
**
Lest we forget, the Democrats are in power in the UK
under the leadership of smiling Tony.

Mike B)

__
Do you Yahoo!?
The New Yahoo! Shopping - with improved product search
http://shopping.yahoo.com

quotation du jour

Getting the rights to distribute Procter and Gamble products would be a gold mine, 
said an unnamed partner at New Bridge Strategies (the lobbying firmed profiled in 
yesterday's NY TIMES). One well-stocked 7-11 could knock out 30 Iraqi stores; a 
WalMart could take over the country. -- Washington POST, 10/3/03, quoted in MS SLATE. 
 
Jim

plus ca change

2003-10-03 Thread michael

The Thursday Wall Street Journal has a piece by none other than Arthur
Laffer, proving that California's progressive tax system is responsible
for all of the ills of the state.

--

Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
michael at ecst.csuchico.edu
Chico, CA 95929
530-898-5321
fax 530-898-5901

Re: quotation du jour

correction: the date is 10/2/03, which is also the date for MS SLATE. 

-Original Message- 
From: Devine, James 
Sent: Fri 10/3/2003 4:50 PM 
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Cc: 
Subject: [PEN-L] quotation du jour

Getting the rights to distribute Procter and Gamble products would be a gold 
mine, said an unnamed partner at New Bridge Strategies (the lobbying firmed profiled 
in yesterday's NY TIMES). One well-stocked 7-11 could knock out 30 Iraqi stores; a 
WalMart could take over the country. -- Washington POST, 10/3/03, quoted in MS SLATE.

Jim

Re: Vegatative states and neuroscience: From Hari Kumar

I haven't been reading more than a acattering of posts today, so I
haven't read any other posts with heading. But cognitive is, in
psychiatry, defined a bit more narrowly than Doug's definition.
Schizophrenia does directly impair cognitive functions of the brain,
while bipolar and unipolar are _Affective Disorder[s]_. Both of course
have indirect and often serious cognitive effects as well. It has
recently been established that depression (unipolar) actually shrinks
the hippocampus, hence the memory problems in unipolar affective
disorder. It has also been more or less established that _one_ SSRI,
Paxil, actually _grows_ new neurons in the hippocampus.

We're still pretty ignorant. But MRI techniques are leading to huge
leaps in knowledge, not yet translated into understanding.

Carrol

Devine, James wrote:

 Doug wrote:
  One of the key areas for the disabled rights movement is
  cognitive issues. To be clear when I use this term,
  cognitive, many disabled people do not use
  it in broad context, but to mean a specific area of
  disability.  Cognitive for me is involvement of the brain in
  a disability.  Schizophrenia,
  developmental disability, blindness, dyslexia and so forth
  have cognitive issues.

 For what it's worth, dyslexia and many developmental disabilities are more 
 perceptual or information-processing (awareness) problems rather than being 
 cognitive (knowing  judgement) problems.
 Jim

WIPO

http://www.wipo.org/
Press Release PR/2003/363
Geneva, October 1, 2003



2003 SESSION OF WIPO ASSEMBLIES CONCLUDE
The Assemblies of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)
concluded on Wednesday following a review of activities over the past year
and agreement on the agenda of the Organization for the next year. The
meetings of the Assemblies, which bring together the 179 member states of
the Organization as well as representatives of a number of intergovernmental
and non-governmental organizations, were chaired by Ambassador Bernard
Kessedjian, Permanent Representative of France to the United Nations and
other international organizations in Geneva. Ms. Dorothy Angote,
Registrar-General, Department of the Registrar-General, Attorney-General's
Chambers of Kenya and Mr. Wang Jingchuan, Commissioner, State Intellectual
Property Office of China served as Vice Chairs.

In his closing remarks, Ambassador Kessedjian welcomed the positive outcome
of the Assemblies and the successful review of the Organization's activities
and its future directions. The Chairman summarized the Assemblies main
decisions and thanked the delegations for their active and constructive
participation. He applauded the spirit of consensus which characterized the
decision-making process at the Assemblies.

Ambassador Kessedjian said that intellectual property, a powerful catalyst
of growth and progress, should be increasingly put at the service of
development, that is, at the service of all, as a universal tool whose
benefits are equally shared. He thanked Dr. Kamil Idris, WIPO Director
General, and the staff of the Organization for consistently offering the
member states comprehensive programs, in spite of budgetary constraints. He
commended Dr. Idris for his leadership of the Organization saying thanks to
his sense of balance, justice and his willingness to listen, we are able to
respond to the most difficult questions without anyone feeling sidelined.
Ambassador Kessedjian said WIPO is executing its mandate in an exemplary
manner.

The highlights of the meeting that took place from September 22 through
October 1, 2003, include:

The General Assembly approved by consensus the 2004-2005 program and budget,
which proposes a slight decrease as compared to 2002-2003 owing to the
completion of major infrastructure projects in the area of information
technology and buildings during that financial period. Member states
approved a budget amounting to 638.8 million Swiss Francs (SFr), which
reflects a decrease of 30 million SFr or 4.5 % as compared with the revised
budget for 2002-2003 of 668.8 million SFr. At the beginning of the second
term of WIPO Director General, Dr. Kamil Idris, member states also endorsed
his strategy and mid-term plan for the next six years in which the
development of an intellectual property (IP) culture was underlined as the
strategic goal to enable all stakeholders to play their roles and to realize
the potential of IP as a tool for economic, social and cultural development.
The plan affirms that the economic health of a country and its success in
meeting development challenges such as bridging the knowledge divide and
reducing poverty will depend on an ability to develop, utilize and protect
its national creativity and innovation. An effective and well-balanced
intellectual property system allied to pro-active IP policy-making and
focused strategic planning, will help nations to promote and protect
intellectual assets, drive economic growth and generate wealth. For more
information, please see PR/2003/357 and document A/39/5.

The Assemblies noted four studies on the effect of the patent system on
developing countries by experts with various backgrounds from Africa, the
Arab region, Asia and Latin America. The studies were commissioned by the
Director General within the context of the WIPO Patent Agenda to help
identify issues which need to be taken into account to ensure that the
patent system generates the maximum benefit for states at varying levels of
development. A number of developing countries emphasized that, while this
was a useful step, further careful consideration was still needed,
especially in a number of fields of particular policy concern. Please see
documents A/39/13, A/39/13 Add.1, Add.2, Add.3 and Add.4.  The WIPO Patent
Agenda was initiated by the Director General in September 2001 to coordinate
discussions on the future development of the international patent system.
Its goal is to develop an international patent system that is more
user-friendly and accessible, and provides an appropriate balance between
the rights of inventors and the interests of the general public, while at
the same time taking into account the implications for the developing world.

Member states decided to push forward with work relating to the intellectual
property (IP) aspects of traditional knowledge, folklore and genetic
resources. The General Assembly, decided on an extended mandate for the WIPO

the Economist on my friend, epimenides

http://www.economist.com/science/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2099851




To this day, no one has come up with a set of rules for
originality. There aren't any. [Les Paul]

conspiracy theory

is there any truth to the rumor that the makers of Prozac are pumping up Arnold's 
campaign in order to drum up business for their product?

Re: George W. Bush, c'est fini

At 8:33 AM -0700 10/3/03, Devine, James wrote:
Yoshie writes Bush is finished -- 

I don't think we should put that much faith in polls
The latest New York Times/CBS News poll (and trends in previous polls
about Iraq and economy) simply confirms my findings based upon
participant observation of students and workers in Columbus, OH -- a
key swing state:
At 11:00 AM -0400 10/3/03, ravi wrote:
it then comes down to one or two swing states
*   Ohio key to '04, top Democrat says

09/24/03

Mark Naymik
Politics Writer
. . . Fifty-five percent of Ohioans approve of Bush's performance as
president, according to a poll released yesterday by the University
of Cincinnati's Institute for Policy Research. That's down 21
percentage points from his 76 percent approval rating in the
university's April poll.
The new poll, which surveyed 809 adults, also found that 53 percent
of those surveyed said they now disapprove of Bush's handling of the
economy, down 12 percentage points from the April poll. . . .
Though Bill Clinton won Ohio twice, Gore lost the state to George W.
Bush by less than 4 percentage points. Many Democrats still believe
that if Gore had not stopped campaigning here a month before the
November election, he would have won Ohio and the presidency. . . .
http://www.cleveland.com/news/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/cuyahoga/1064395879102500.xml
*
Americans are losing jobs at home, and American soldiers are losing
lives and limbs in Iraq, and there is no way the Bush administration
can turn them around in thirteen months.
At 3:54 PM + 10/3/03, Carl Remick wrote:
Whoa there, hold the confetti, Yoshie.
No confetti for any Democrat from me.  The thing to do is try our
best to prevent votes for the Democratic nominee from turning into
the votes for demobilization of activists after the Democratic
victory in 2004.
--
Yoshie
* Bring Them Home Now! http://www.bringthemhomenow.org/
* Calendars of Events in Columbus:
http://www.osu.edu/students/sif/calendar.html,
http://www.freepress.org/calendar.php,  http://www.cpanews.org/
* Student International Forum: http://www.osu.edu/students/sif/
* Committee for Justice in Palestine: http://www.osudivest.org/
* Al-Awda-Ohio: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Al-Awda-Ohio
* Solidarity: http://www.solidarity-us.org/

Re: George W. Bush, c'est fini

- Original Message -
From: Yoshie Furuhashi [EMAIL PROTECTED]

 Americans are losing jobs at home, and American soldiers are losing
 lives and limbs in Iraq, and there is no way the Bush administration
 can turn them around in thirteen months.


==

What did that guy Keynes say again?


Ian

Republicans Unsure of Bush's Chances for 2004 Election

*   Posted on Fri, Oct. 03, 2003
Republicans unsure of Bush's chances for 2004 election
By Ron Hutcheson and Steven Thomma
Knight Ridder Newspapers
CHUCK KENNEDY, KRT
President Bush speaks at the White House.
WASHINGTON - In a sharp reversal, Republicans who just months ago
daydreamed about a 2004 election landslide now worry that President
Bush is losing control of events at home and abroad and faces a real
chance of leading the party to defeat.
At home, anxiety about the economy is escalating and respect for Bush
is sinking. His domestic agenda has stalled in Congress.
Abroad, troubles in Iraq and Afghanistan have eroded Bush's
traditional Republican advantage on foreign policy. His calls for
international help in Iraq have gone unanswered. And in both
countries, Americans continue to die in guerrilla attacks. . . .
Complicating matters for Bush is the possibility of a full-blown
scandal involving allegations that someone in his White House
revealed the identity of a CIA officer out of political spite at the
officer's spouse. The ensuing political firestorm, not to mention the
Justice Department investigation, could further hurt Bush's standing.
. . .
Job growth typically lags behind overall economic revival, and it has
not yet become strong or sustained. Even with September's addition of
57,000 jobs, the unemployment rate remains at 6.1 percent, and the
country still has nearly 3 million fewer jobs than when Bush took
office.
Iraq is the other political wild card.

Bush's recent request for an additional $87 billion largely to shore
up Iraq helped crystallize nagging questions many Americans had about
the continuing deaths of American soldiers months after Bush flew
triumphantly to an aircraft carrier to pose beneath a banner
declaring mission accomplished. A majority of Americans oppose
Bush's $87 billion request.
It didn't help Bush that this week the top U.S. general in Iraq said
this is still wartime, and chief U.S. weapons inspector David Kay
reported that he has found no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. .
. .
http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/6926616.htm   *
--
Yoshie
* Bring Them Home Now! http://www.bringthemhomenow.org/
* Calendars of Events in Columbus:
http://www.osu.edu/students/sif/calendar.html,
http://www.freepress.org/calendar.php,  http://www.cpanews.org/
* Student International Forum: http://www.osu.edu/students/sif/
* Committee for Justice in Palestine: http://www.osudivest.org/
* Al-Awda-Ohio: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Al-Awda-Ohio
* Solidarity: http://www.solidarity-us.org/

Re: Republicans Unsure of Bush's Chances for 2004 Election

Does October Surprise mean anything?
--
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929

Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]

Positive psychology and emotional management in the USA

Positive emotions don't necessarily narrow people toward a specific action,
like negative emotions do. Positive emotions seem to broaden people's
repertoires of things they like to pursue. They broaden ways of thinking
beyond our regular baseline, and they accumulate. And that broadening allows
people to discover and learn new things. (...) When we are given permission
to focus on emotions, a new dimension of the human landscape just pops out.
If you pay attention to and track emotions, especially positive emotions, I
think that you capture a lot more information that will help you make
decisions.

- Barbara Fredrickson, Ph.D, research psychologist, University of Michigan

Source: http://gmj.gallup.com/content/default.asp?ci=1177

Gore eyes CBC-launched cable company Newsworld International

2003-10-03 Thread Kenneth Campbell

Gore eyes CBC-launched cable company Newsworld International

Barbara Shecter and Isabel Vincent
National Post
Oct 3 2003


In his quest to set up a new liberal-leaning broadcaster in the United
States, former U.S. vice-president Al Gore and a group of investors
could end up buying Newsworld International, a cable company originally
started by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation in 1994.

According to a source close to the negotiations, Mr. Gore and his
financial partners hope to re-focus the channel -- which was sold to USA
Networks in 2000, and then to Vivendi Universal -- as a left-leaning
rival to Rupert Murdoch's Fox News. Mr. Gore would become the company's
fifth owner if the deal goes through.

Yes, there were talks, said the source, adding they were put on hold
in May or June because most of Vivendi Universal's television and
entertainment assets were put up for auction to reduce the company's
debt.

Talks maybe have warmed up again now that General Electric Co.'s
New-York based NBC has a deal to buy Vivendi Universal's U.S.
entertainment division for US$3.8-billion in cash and a 20% stake in a
new entertainment company valued at more than US$40-billion, said the
source. It's going to be considered but not until that deal is
consummated.

The Vivendi-NBC deal could be concluded within the next week, but it is
expected to take a further four to six months to get the blessing of
regulators, including the U.S. Federal Communications Commission and the
European Commission in Brussels.

Newsworld International, a 24-hour news channel which airs the CBC's
flagship newscast The National alongside programs such as ITV's Evening
News -- billed as the most popular dinner hour newscast in Britain -- is
programmed in Canada by a staff of 58 CBC employees, said Ruth-Ellen
Soles, a spokeswoman for the public broadcaster.

Newscasts come from Japan, Germany and the European Community, with some
broadcast in their original language as well as in English. The
channel's Web site also boasts business and sports news, weather and
entertainment.

The channel cannot be seen in Canada, Ms. Soles said.

The CBC has a supply contract with Vivendi Universal's television group
to program Newsworld International. Any changes to the schedule or
countries of origin that would be requested by a new owner would have to
be negotiated, she said. She declined to say how much the CBC is paid,
or when the contract expires. We don't discuss the terms of our
contracts publicly.

Changes to CBC programs would be one area that would not be open to
negotiation, she said.

If they say 'I don't want that item in The National, that's not on,
she said. We won't tailor The National to an American sensibility.

Mr. Gore's investor group -- which, according to a report in the New
York Daily News,, includes investment banker Steve Rattner and Joel
Hyatt, a former Democratic fundraiser -- is contemplating paying
US$70-million for Newsworld International.

CBC and Montreal-based Power Corp., the original partners in Newsworld
International, received US$155-million for Newsworld and eclectic
specialty channel Trio when they were sold to Barry Diller's USA
Networks in May, 2000. Mr. Diller sold out to Vivendi Universal in late
2001.

Mr. Gore ran for U.S. president in 2000 and lost a very close and hotly
contested race to George W. Bush.

In recent months, broadcast industry sources say, he has had his eye on
Newsworld International as a platform to present a rival agenda to the
right-wing views aired on Mr. Murdoch's Fox News.

He feels CNN is not doing it -- CNN is more in the middle [of the
political road], one media source said.

Others expressed skepticism about Mr. Gore's ability to compete in the
U.S. market.

My big question is how much of a market is there for a liberal
broadcaster in the United States? asked Vince Carlin, chairman of the
School of Journalism at Ryerson University in Toronto. One wonders how
much of a dent this could make in a market dominated by CNN and Fox
News.

If Mr. Gore buys Newsworld International, he will face a tough
competitive landscape. With 20 million subscribers, the channel is
dwarfed by the more than 80 million U.S. households that receive CNN and
Fox. Even CNBC and MSNBC, two specialty news services backed and heavily
promoted by NBC, have more than 60 million viewers apiece.

My guess is that they are probably planning to turn it mainstream,
said Derek Baine, a senior analyst at Kagan World Media, a media
research firm in California.

If that's the case, it is going to be very difficult because Newsworld
International is not very well known in the United States and is
primarily carried on satellite.

In Canada, some media critics were surprised by the talks.

I guess [Al Gore] considers himself a journalist, said a Toronto-based
media analyst, who did not want to be identified. This is the funniest
thing I've heard in a long time.

Before launching his political career, Mr. Gore worked as a reporter for

labor saving technical change

Drones May Be Allowed to Share U.S. Skies
By Renae Merle
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, October 4, 2003; Page E01


NASA launched a program this month budgeted at more than $100 million aimed at allowing
unmanned aircraft to share the skies with commercial airliners, bolstering what the
defense industry hopes will eventually be a multibillion-dollar market for drones.

The program would initially permit unmanned aerial vehicles, known as UAVs, to fly at
about 40,000 feet, which is above most commercial traffic. By the end of five years,
unmanned aircraft would be allowed to join general air traffic, flying as low as 18,000
feet. At that altitude, the aircraft could monitor border areas or check forested areas
for fires, industry officials said. The industry envisions drones eventually moving 
cargo
across the country.

The ability to enter national airspace is going to be a fundamental change to 
aviation,
said NASA's Jeff Bauer, the project manager.

Under existing regulations, it takes up to two months to get Federal Aviation
Administration permission to fly a drone in national airspace, limiting response to
emerging situations such as floods or earthquakes, industry officials said. In many 
cases,
the agency requires that a plane with a human pilot escort a drone, significantly
increasing the cost of each trip, they said.

Recently, the FAA gave the Air Force more leeway in flying Northrop Grumman Corp.'s 
Global
Hawk. The drone is now allowed to fly largely unfettered around the country as long as 
a
flight plan is filed with the FAA five days in advance and the aircraft stays above 
40,000
feet, company officials said.

But the concession covers only one drone and does not reach the level of freedom the
industry envisions. Eventually, industry officials want to be able to file a flight 
plan
in the same manner as any manned aircraft and take off from a commercial airport 
instead
of an Air Force base.

NASA is funding the bulk of the cost, $100 million, and developing the program in
conjunction with the Defense Department and the FAA. The defense industry, including
Boeing Co., Lockheed Martin Corp. and Northrop Grumman Corp., is expected to 
contribute an
additional $30 million to $40 million. The program will develop technology, simulation
tests and policies governing the planes' use of the national airspace.

Government and industry officials have attempted for years to gain wider acceptance of 
the
unmanned planes but have been stymied by concerns that drones are not reliable enough 
to
fly over populated areas. Some point to their spotty record in combat. During the 
Kosovo
war, 10 times as many drones were lost as manned vehicles, according to a report from 
Teal
Group Corp., a defense research firm.

Drones range in size from as large as a 747 to an aircraft with a nine-foot wingspan
weighing just 10 pounds. They are operated by pilots on the ground. Critics say that 
if a
pilot loses contact, the unmanned aircraft could crash into a populated area.

Drones should be required to meet the same safety standards as commercial airliners,
including enhanced crash-avoidance software, said John Mazor, spokesman for the Air 
Line
Pilots Association, adding that NASA has not provided details of the program. There 
will
be an awful lot of concerns that have to be satisfied before drones can go into
widespread use, Mazor said.

The program will spend a lot of its money developing technology to enhance a drone's
ability to detect another aircraft and avoid it, said Bauer, the NASA project manager.
During the early phase of the program, the drones will be able to detect signals sent 
from
commercial jets' transponders so the pilot on the ground can avoid nearby traffic,
according to industry officials.

You're not going to be able to utilize these things effectively if they cannot be used
safely, Bauer said.

The use of drones in domestic airspace could also raise privacy concerns, especially if
the aircraft are adapted for public surveillance, said Barry Steinhardt, director of 
the
Program on Technology and Liberty at the American Civil Liberties Union. The
technological reality is that the government has the equivalent of Superman's X-ray
vision, and these unmanned planes are an example of that, he said. Do we want to 
live in
a society where drone planes . . . are constantly monitoring our every activity? That's
the question we're going to have to answer.

For now, plans to allow the drones to take off and land from commercial airports 
instead
of Air Force bases have been postponed because of funding constraints, Bauer said. Use 
of
commercial airports would require an additional $200 million to $300 million 
investment to
gain required FAA certification for the drones' landing gear and to familiarize airport
personnel, including air traffic controllers, with the planes, industry officials said.

For the defense industry, the program is an essential first step in creating a 
potential

Re: Gore eyes CBC-launched cable company Newsworld International

Great news!  I have trouble sleeping sometimes.  A Gore network would do
the trick.
--
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929

Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]

Re: Republicans Unsure of Bush's Chances for 2004 Election

I think that a snap-shot impression in political poll results says very
little, particularly as political variables are so much more prone to
volatility. Therefore, I think it is always important to look at the trend
in polling results over time, and consider what specific intervention would
change the trend (since if we treat politics in an objectivistic,
deterministic, reified way we are being just pundits and in no position to
affect outcomes in any way). That is how a politician looks at it.

According to Gallup, Bush's approval rating is 50 percent approve, 47
percent disapprove at the moment. The 3 percent difference isn't very
much, and it takes little to tip the scales. This combines with a massive
increase in the state of dissatisfaction about the state of the country and
a massive decline of economic confidence (see
http://www.gallup.com/poll/stateNation/ ). Thus, given severe public doubts,
this should alert us to the kinds of events, that would cause a further
shift or change in public opinion in the future.

In addition, one ought to check the survey questions used, since, the exact
formulation of the questions, especially in attitudinal surveys, can
enormously affect the results, and these results can in turn influence
public opinion or impressions, such that public opinion is moulded and
shaped by feeding back a certain scheme of abstraction, which provides
frames of reference implying what the legitimate dimensions and boundaries
of valid opinion are.

One of the most common errors made in attitudinal surveys consists in asking
questions which respondents cannot answer or decide on as stated, with the
result that they consent to choose an answer which they think is closest
to their opinion, but which does not reflect their true opinion, because it
abstracts from their true motivational structure, true context or overall
judgement, or is influenced by the surveyer.

At the simplest level, it is already very different story, for example, if I
ask a respondent a question of the type which of these options most closely
reflects your opinion than if I ask is your opinion actually x, y, or z,
and choose one only from these options (which a critical portion of
respondents may in fact not be able to do). It can sometimes be much more
revealing to ask a question of the type what specifically would change your
opinion of this issue ? since opinions are much more subject to change than
other human behaviours or characteristics.

The philosophers have interpreted the world, in various ways - the point is
to change it - Karl Marx

J.

Re: Bush - dolt or ordinary criminal?