The recession arrives
The recession arrives American unemployment rose to its highest level for five years in October, according to new data released on November 2nd. The figures came two days after confirmation that Americas GDP shrank in the third quarter of this year. How long and deep Americas recession will be is unclear, and the uncertainty created by the war on terrorism could yet make things worse. Full article is at: A HREF=http://TheEconomist.s.maildart.net/link_32748_6589433_3_141296846_868081 20_1_96http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=850835/A
Re: BLS Daily Report
Jim wrote: hey, cool! we can see if Irving Fisher's debt-deflation theory of depressions works.I hope it doesn't. Dear Jim, Can what is below may be related with that theory as well? I would appreciate your comments, as well as the comments of others. Sabri Oncu + Warning signs Oct 25th 2001 From The Economist print edition Asia's slump could once again strain the region's financial system The economic news from East Asia gets worse by the day. Singapore is suffering its worst recession for almost 40 years: real GDP fell by 5.6% in the year to the third quarter. Taiwan, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand and the Philippines are already in or close to recession. How vulnerable is Asia to another financial crisis? In 1997 pegged exchange rates, high foreign-currency borrowing and weak bank supervision left many Asian financial systems horribly vulnerable to a sharp fall in exports and capital outflows. Most of the region's economies now have flexible exchange rates, current-account surpluses, large foreign reserves and sounder banking systemsall of which suggests that another crisis is unlikely. But a new report by Sun-Bae Kim at Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong reaches a more sobering conclusion: not only is Asia suffering a more severe economic shock than it did before the crisis of 1997-98, but its financial system is, overall, no stronger than it was then. One gauge of the size of the economic shock hitting the financial system is the slowdown in the rate of growth of nominal GDP. This is a proxy for the capacity of the economy to generate cash flow, from which debts must be serviced. Most economies have seen a much sharper fall in nominal growth over the past year than leading up to the 1997 crisis (see chart). In Malaysia, the year-on-year rate of nominal GDP growth has fallen from 20% in early 2000 to minus 2% in the second quarter of this year. How bad this cash-flow shock is depends upon the level of private-sector debt, and upon how many of the outstanding loans are already non-performing. In East Asia as a whole, private-sector debt is smaller in relation to GDP than in 1997, but non-performing loans now amount to 15% of GDP, up from 11% before the 1997 crisis. If the economic shock is bigger, do financial systems have thicker buffers than in 1997? They certainly look healthier today on various measures of liquidity. In 1997 foreign lenders triggered a liquidity crunch by refusing to roll over loans. Today, the foreign borrowing of the financial system amounts to 30% of foreign-exchange reserves, down from 70% in 1997. On various measures of solvency, however, many Asian financial systems look wobbly. The average capital-adequacy ratio of the banks is slightly lower than at the end of 1996. Ratios of government debt to GDP are much higher today than in 1997, leaving governments less able to bail out banking systems again. Public-sector debt has risen from an average of 28% of GDP at the end of 1996 to 45% of GDP today. The worrying conclusion is that although Asia's financial system is less vulnerable to a sudden liquidity crisis, there is a risk of a deeper, more drawn-out deflation, exacerbated by domestic debtsimilar to that in Japan. China alone looks better placed than in 1997: the economic shock currently hitting China is milder than in the lead-up to the previous crisis, when deflation was more severe. Nor does its financial system look significantly more exposed (thanks largely to a currency that is only partially convertible). Goldman Sachs reckons that the most vulnerable financial systems are in Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand and Indonesia.
Re: New economy bull
Jim wrote: BTW, some economists argue that even service-providers _in effect_ have inventories. Excess supply in a service industry will show up as excess capacity [e.g., unused airplanes] or as 'inventory' of underutilized employees. -- Baily Friedman, MACROECONOMICS, 2nd ed, p. 66. This reminds me of a few money management firms I had worked at or visited: there existed a large number employees, or resources as they are called by the upper management, who were just sitting there, doing nothing. One of these firms was so bad in this regard that roughly one-third of the excess inventory in the department I was associated with were on Prozac or some other anti-depressant, and I am not joking. What a fugging (Copy right: Louis Proyect) world is this financial services industry! Sabri Oncu
Re: Event Studies
Edwin Dickens wrote: But if some investment bankers move in, force out the old management, sell-off the resorts at a fire-sale price of, say, $50 million, then the new management will have no trouble running them profitably. But that means somebody has to eat a $450 million loss. The same type of write-downs have to take place accross the economy in order to set the stage for recovery, which is what may be happening now in a year or so rather than years and years and years. Dear Edwin, I also believe that this type of write-downs may happen faster now. But who will be that somebody who will have to eat the losses after the write-downs? Is this not also important in the nature or speed of the recovery? Best, Sabri Oncu
A request and a suggestion.
Friends, Would it be possible for the list members to add their e-mail addresses to their signatures? Although I greatly enjoy and learn a great deal from most of the discussions on PEN-L, it is very difficult for me, and probably for my likes who need a learner's dictionary to follow some of the discussions, to cope with the heavy volume of e-mails on this list. Further, some discussions are so inherently anglo-american that it is impossible for me to comprehend what is going on. Here is an example: Michael Perelman wrote: Do religious zealots usually frequent lap dancers??? Ask Jimmy Swaggart. Doug I understand Michael perfectly but I don't understant Doug. Who the hell is this Jimmy Swaggart? By the way, the same goes for both Doug's and Lou's lists. I would have subscribed to both, but if I did, I would have had no time for anything other than reading e-mails. This is why I choose to eavesdrop on the conversations on these lists from their respective websites, instead of subscribing to them to receive individual e-mails. My issue is that some times I want to ask questions to the author of an e-mail. But unless I have the address of the author, my only choice is to write to the list and further increase th eheavy volume. So, it would be nice if the e-mail addresses are added to the signatures. This is my request. Now my suggestion: Please keep in mind that not all of the subscribers, or peekers, of these lists are anglo-americans. Best, Sabri Oncu [EMAIL PROTECTED]
The algebra of infinite justice, by Arundhati Roy
[This is a long article. I don't know if someone sent this to the list already. The list archives have not been updated since September 30th and I don't get individual mails. So I apologize if this is a repeat.] The Guardian (London), September 29, 2001 The algebra of infinite justice, by Arundhati Roy In the aftermath of the unconscionable September 11 suicide attacks on the Pentagon and the World Trade Centre, an American newscaster said: Good and evil rarely manifest themselves as clearly as they did last Tuesday. People who we don't know massacred people who we do. And they did so with contemptuous glee.' Then he broke down and wept. Here's the rub: America is at war against people it doesn't know, because they don't appear much on TV. Before it has properly identified or even begun to comprehend the nature of its enemy, the US government has, in a rush of publicity and embarrassing rhetoric, cobbled together an international coalition against terror, mobilised its army, its air force, its navy and its media, and committed them to battle. The trouble is that once America goes off to war, it can't very well return without having fought one. If it doesn't find its enemy, for the sake of the enraged folks back home, it will have to manufacture one. Once war begins, it will develop a momentum, a logic and a justification of its own, and we'll lose sight of why it's being fought in the first place. What we're witnessing here is the spectacle of the world's most powerful country reaching reflexively, angrily, for an old instinct to fight a new kind of war. Suddenly, when it comes to defending itself, America's streamlined warships, cruise missiles and F-16 jets look like obsolete, lumbering things. As deterrence, its arsenal of nuclear bombs is no longer worth its weight in scrap. Box-cutters, penknives, and cold anger are the weapons with which the wars of the new century will be waged. Anger is the lock pick. It slips through customs unnoticed. Doesn't show up in baggage checks. Who is America fighting? On September 20, the FBI said that it had doubts about the identities of some of the hijackers. On the same day President George Bush said, 'We know exactly who these people are and which governments are supporting them.' It sounds as though the president knows something that the FBI and the American public don't. In his September 20 address to the US Congress, President Bush called the enemies of America 'enemies of freedom'. Americans are asking, Why do they hate us? he said. They hate our freedoms our freedom of religion, our freedom of speech, our freedom to vote and assemble and disagree with each other. People are being asked to make two leaps of faith here. First, to assume that The Enemy is who the US government says it is, even though it has no substantial evidence to support that claim. And second, to assume that The Enemy's motives are what the US government says they are, and there's nothing to support that either. For strategic, military and economic reasons, it is vital for the US government to persuade its public that their commitment to freedom and democracy and the American Way of Life is under attack. In the current atmosphere of grief, outrage and anger, it's an easy notion to peddle. However, if that were true, it's reasonable to wonder why the symbols of America's economic and military dominance - the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon - were chosen as the targets of the attacks. Why not the Statue of Liberty? Could it be that the stygian anger that led to the attacks has its taproot not in American freedom and democracy, but in the US government's record of commitment and support to exactly the opposite things to military and economic terrorism, insurgency, military dictatorship, religious bigotry and unimaginable genocide (outside America)? It must be hard for ordinary Americans, so recently bereaved, to look up at the world with their eyes full of tears and encounter what might appear to them to be indifference. It isn't indifference. It's just augury. An absence of surprise. The tired wisdom of knowing that what goes around eventually comes around. American people ought to know that it is not them but their government's policies that are so hated. They can't possibly doubt that they themselves, their extraordinary musicians, their writers, their actors, their spectacular sportsmen and their cinema, are universally welcomed. All of us have been moved by the courage and grace shown by firefighters, rescue workers and ordinary office staff in the days since the attacks. America's grief at what happened has been immense and immensely public. It would be grotesque to expect it to calibrate or modulate its anguish. However, it will be a pity if, instead of using this as an opportunity to try to understand why September 11 happened, Americans use it as an opportunity to usurp the whole world's sorrow to mourn and avenge only their own. Because then it falls to the
The business shake-out begins
A HREF=http://TheEconomist.s.maildart.net/link_29319_6468878_3_141296846_868081 20_1_9fhttp://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=805800/A Friends, Below paragraph is from the above The Economist article. This paragraph is about the sharp review of business strategies. I have been observing a change in the mood of upper-managements of a few companies, particularly towards out-sourcing and sub-contracting [being a sub-contractor in out-sourced project(s)] much before the terrorist attacks. Does anyone have any emprical evidence for or against this? Best, Sabri Oncu ++ Business strategies are also coming under sharp review. Although the spread of multinationals has brought great benefits to both companies and countries, it has made manufacturers more vulnerable to disruption from forces outside of their control. While companies are unlikely to want to give up trying to seek globally competitive suppliers, they may become a bit more cautious and try to reduce their exposure to the risks of international terrorism. Some firms may want to build in extra safeguards against business disruption, for instance by demanding that certain critical suppliers set up operations close to or even within local factories or keep more buffer stocks. Even if the immediate threat of terrorist attacks recedes, the conduct of business seems unlikely to return unscathed to methods widely used before September 11th.
What happens if they purge us from the antiglobalization movement?
September 27, 2001 - Washington Times Communists, go home Robert Stacy McCain Ten years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, communists are taking over Washington or at least, the National Mall. Most in the media would have you believe that the protesters who will gather Saturday across from the White House are a broad coalition of groups (as CNN decribed the 1999 rioters in Seattle) or perhaps a various political, social and religious organizations (as the New York Times described this summer's rioters in Genoa, Italy). Hogwash. They're communists, and some of them are honest enough to admit it. One of the most vocal promoters of Saturday's demonstration is the International Action Center (IAC). The IAC's chief spokesmen Brian Becker and Larry Holmes are both officials of the Worker's World Party (WWP), a Marxist organization with a record of supporting repressive communist regimes such as Cuba and North Korea. The history of the WWP is instructive. Its founder, Sam Marcy, was a follower of Leon Trotsky, the Bolshevik leader who was purged by (and later assasinated by henchmen of) Soviet dictator Josef Stalin. Marcy split from the Socialist Workers Party after his fellow Troskyists refused to endorse the USSR's 1956 invasion of Hungary. So Messrs. Becker and Holmes, whose party began by defending Kruschev's military conquest of Hungary, now want to protest war and American imperialism. Isn't that nice? But the WWP and the IAC aren't the only commies backing Saturday's demonstrations. Among those sponsoring, promoting and supporting the rally at the Washington Monument is the Communist Party USA (CPUSA). The Young Communist League, youth affilate of the CPUSA, carries this message on its Web site, www.yclusa.org: We extend our invitation for people to come to Washington D.C. for the Peoples' Summit . . . on September 29th. Like the WWP and the IAC, the Revolutionary Communist Party (RCP) has its own front group, Refuse Resist (RR), founded in 1987 by veteran RCP activist Clark Kissinger. Mary Lou Greenberg, another RCP member, is also on the National Council of R R, a sponsor of Saturday's protests. Kissinger who recently served a 90-day jail sentence for probation violation was national officer of the Students for a Democratic Society (SDS) in the 1960s, was involved in the 1968 riots in Chicago, then left SDS. A follower of Mao Zedong, Kissinger has been affiliated for more than 20 years with the Maoist RCP. Last year, Kissinger offered this bit of analysis: The problem in this country is the oppressive system of capitalism that exploits people all over the world, that destroys our planet, that oppresses minority people, that sends people to the death chambers in droves. That is a problem that has to be done away with. Is there a solution? Yes. Revolution is the solution. Advocating Maoist revolution and promoting the ubiquitous hero of the left, Philadelphia cop-killer Mumia-Abu Jamal has won RR and RCP the support of rockers like Rage Against the Machine and Chumbawamba. The communist influence on Saturday's protest extends far beyond the participation of avowed Marxists, Trotskyists and Maoists. Among the scheduled speakers are members of the Institute for Policy Studies, a think tank which during the Cold War consistently trumpeted the Soviet position, supporting the goals and causes of virtually every revolutionary terrorist movement backed by Havana, Hanoi, and Moscow, according to one historian. Want more? Should any protesters manage to get themselves arrested Saturday, they will call on the attorneys of the National Lawyers Guild (NLG), organized by lawyers for the Communist Party in 1936. The NLG is affiliated with the International Association of Democratic Lawyers, described by the CIA in 1978 as one of the most useful Communist front organizations at the service of the Soviet Communist Party. Being old enough to remember the Cold War and to have cheered the collapse of the Soviet empire, I have to scratch my head at the crowds of young people most of them rich, white college kids who flock to these protests organized by communists. Did America endure a four-decade nuclear standoff with the Evil Empire, so that its children could grow up to be commies? I suppose many young people are victims of their Baby Boomer teachers, who taught them that the peace movement of the 1960s was all sunshine and light. Guess nobody bothered to tell the kids about the bombings perpetrated by the Weather Underground and the murders committed by the Black Panthers, to say nothing of the millions enslaved and slaughtered in Vietnam and Cambodia because of the peace resulting from communist victory. So hundreds of young people will be out in front of the White House, supporting the communist attack on American
Re: Security Council unanimous resolution
Chris wrote: While left opportunist voices may have ridiculed talk of global governance, yesterday we saw a historic step from global governance to global government, in the unanimous vote in the UN Security Council for the statement against terrorism proposed by the USA just two weeks after the WTC bombing. Interesting proposal Chris! I say this after reading your entire mail, not just the above paragraph. May I ask you who the cabinet members of this emerging government will be in your view? How many Chileans, Peruvians, Philipinos, Malaysians, Sri Lankans, Turks, Mongolians, Greeks, Egyptians, Sudanise, Brundise and the like will be in this government you think? Whose government will it be and do you think the rest will go with it forever? Let me tell you this: I won't!... Sabri
Defining Terrorism Stirs Words of Dispute
Defining Terrorism Stirs Words of Dispute By DAVID G. SAVAGE and GREG MILLER Times Staff Writers October 1 2001 - LA Times WASHINGTON -- One of the hardest issues facing lawmakers who are writing new antiterrorism legislation is the one that many might see as the easiest: What is terrorism? All agree that a politically motivated attack that kills innocent civilians, such as the destruction of the World Trade Center, is terrorism at its worst. But the Justice Department has proposed to define terrorism so broadly that some lawmakers fear it would include a teenage computer hacker or a protester who tosses a rock through the window of a federal building. And because the government wants to prosecute all those who harbor or conspire with terrorists, a loose definition could brand thousands of protesters as conspirators in a terrorist plot. Senate aides and administration lawyers negotiated over the weekend on the details of the law, and some progress was reported. We want to limit it [terrorist offenses] to situations where death or serious bodily injured is involved. The administration people said they see merit in that suggestion, a Senate aide involved in the negotiations said Sunday. The two sides hope to reach agreement on the legislation early this week. Because terrorism is not one crime but many, Justice Department lawyers opted for an open-ended definition. Their draft bill defines a federal terrorism offense by referring to 35 other crimes. They range from destroying an aircraft or assassinating the president, to offenses such as injury to government property or computer trespass. This set off alarms among civil libertarians. SNIP The full article is at: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-100101legal.story
Lawmakers Tone Down Terror Bill
Lawmakers Tone Down Terror Bill By GREG MILLER, Times Staff Writer October 2 2001 - LA Times WASHINGTON -- Key lawmakers reached a compromise Monday on anti-terrorism legislation that would deny Atty. Gen. John Ashcroft some of the more sweeping powers he is seeking from Congress, but it would still mark a major expansion of law enforcement authority. The bill, which the House could consider as early as next week, would dramatically enhance investigators' ability to conduct electronic surveillance, detain foreign suspects and seek stiffer criminal penalties in terrorism cases. But the measure would strip out or scale back a number of controversial proposals offered by the White House, including the authority to indefinitely detain foreign nationals identified by the attorney general as terrorist threats. SNIP The full artilce is at: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-100201terror.story
[Bloomberg] U.S. Keeps Retaliatory Strikes Outside NATO Command
09/26 14:21 U.S. Keeps Retaliatory Strikes Outside NATO Command (Update3) By Adrian Cox Brussels, Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. chose not to call on NATO support for its retaliation for the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, keeping any military strikes outside the 19-member alliance's command structure. At a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels, Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz didn't call for the alliance's ``one for all'' defense clause to apply, or ask for the support of other countries in striking at Osama bin Laden, whose Afghanistan- based organization the U.S. says is the prime suspect for the Sept. 11 assault. As the U.S. deploys military forces in Central Asia and the Persian Gulf in preparation for a strike at Afghan targets, analysts say Pentagon planners don't want to include all members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in their decision-making. ``The U.S. has the right to decide whether or not to accept a NATO command structure,'' said Daniel Keohane, defense analyst at the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank. ``They feel they're better served organizing it in the Pentagon.'' NATO members were prepared to invoke Article Five of the North Atlantic Treaty, which says all members ``shall assist'' any other member subjected to military attack, if that attack is shown to come from outside the alliance. NATO Secretary General George Robertson had said he expected the U.S. to provide such proof. ``The first move will be the removal of the word `if','' he said on Monday. Inside and Outside Wolfowitz instead told other NATO defense ministers that the U.S. intends to build several international coalitions with countries inside and outside the alliance. He didn't offer any more proof that the Sept. 11 attacks came from outside the U.S., NATO officials said. Article Five doesn't define the nature of assistance members must give. They're only obliged to give such support if asked. Robertson said no such request for military action had been made. ``The alliance continues to keep its options open. There's been no request from the US for such action so far,'' he said at a news conference. ``If we need collective action, we will ask for it. We don't anticipate that at the moment,'' Wolfowitz told reporters. ``We got something very important when NATO invoked Article Five and this give us a very powerful basis'' for cooperating with individual countries, he said. Robertson said Wolfowitz in a private meeting had presented evidence of the involvement of bin Laden in the attacks. ``It becomes clearer and clearer that all the roads being pursued lead towards Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda network,'' Robertson said. ``The U.S. hasn't yet made any definitive conclusions but the burden of the evidence being collected clearly points in that direction.'' Coalition-Building The U.S. is putting together a network of nations including Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Russia to support an attack on Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda network, in Afghanistan and possibly in countries such as Sudan and Yemen. NATO ministers met with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov this afternoon. While Ivanov said at a press conference that Russia supports ``addressing terrorism in the same political and legal language'' as NATO members, he said Russia would not participate in military action. ``As far as participation of Russian troops in Afghanistan is concerned, then that is absolutely ruled out,'' he said. Involving NATO could hamper U.S. attempts to woo countries such as Russia. ``They will look to certain NATO states for support, but they also want to work with countries outside NATO and this might complicate things a little too much,'' Keohane said. Keep it Simple Recent experience has convinced some U.S. policy makers that it's easier to operate outside NATO. During the 1999 Kosovo bombing campaign, France insisted on being consulted on U.S. targeting, even though U.S. forces did 85 percent of the bombing. In any case, not all NATO members can provide military support to U.S. action. Britain is alone among NATO's 16 European members in offering combat troops for a U.S.-led reprisal; it's the only European nation with long-range cruise missiles. Only France has a military surveillance satellite. The U.S. and Britain have cooperated on other military operations outside NATO. In December 1998, they bombed Iraqi targets over Baghdad's failure to comply with UN weapons inspections. And they're the only countries still enforcing UN- imposed no-fly zones on Iraq.
Redemption issues
Friends, If you see any information related to what is below, please let me know. Best, Sabri Mutual managers seek cash cushion By Elizabeth Wine and Andrew Hill in New York Published: September 25 2001 19:38 | Last Updated: September 25 2001 20:30 Some managers of US equity mutual funds have substantially increased their cash positions since the September 11 terrorist attacks, in case investors decide to redeem their holdings. Fund managers and industry analysts suggest funds have sold securities, although so far there is little evidence of large-scale redemptions. Falling stock prices have also eroded the value of the remaining equities in their portfolio, boosting the relative cash position. Equity mutual funds have been the backbone of the savings of US households, nearly half of which own mutual funds. A sharp increase in redemptions could be disastrous for markets, and is the fund industry's worst fear. Some managers were bearish even before the attacks, but report that the possibility of panic redemptions since September 11 has increased the need for a cash cushion. The average stock fund held 5.6 per cent cash in July, the most recent month for which data is available, according to the Investment Company Institute, the trade group for the mutual fund industry. That represented $201bn of the $3,589.9bn in assets held by stock funds at the end of July. The figure had already crept up this year, as managers grew increasingly concerned about the state of equity markets. A year ago managers held an average 5 per cent in cash. Hank Hermann, chief investment officer of Waddell Reed, a Kansas City-based fund firm, said he had 13 per cent cash across mutual funds and private accounts. He estimatd the weighting of cash in his portfolio had increased by 2 to 3 per cent since the attacks, as markets had fallen and he had sold stock. After the attacks, there were redemption issues we needed to keep in the back of our minds, said Mr Hermann, although he added that since Monday's rally, investors had not been redeeming. Robert Lee, an analyst at UBS Warburg, said a survey of mutual fund call centres indicated that the rate of outright fund redemptions had increased, but he added I wouldn't characterise it as a stampede. Liz Ann Sonders, managing direcor of Campbell Cowperthwait an asset managing unit of US Trust, said she had anecdotal evidence that some of the medium to large US mutual fund companies were increasing cash positions and that some firms now held as much as 20 per cent of their portfolio in cash. Don Cassidy, analyst at fund tracker Lipper, noted that with the end of the quarter approaching, some managers might have begun gathering more cash to present a conservative picture to shareholders when the quarterly reports were sent out. He also suggests that in the four days after the attack with markets closed, managers had plenty of time to think about what stocks they wanted to sell. But, having sold, they were probably in no particular hurry to get back in as markets were not going back up. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 14.3 per cent last week, its worst performance since 1933.
Re: the state of the list
Michael wrote: The area where I think we could make the most headway would be to discuss the consequences. What will the effect be on the U.S. and the world economy? What sort of unintended consequences might arise. There were plenty of discussions on this on our next door neighbour WSN. Arguments were ranging from that big business and big government might merge to form an Orwellian social monstrosity, that capitalism's eventual collapse will be the principal event of the 21st century, to that a militarized - centralized emperorship without any democratic component might emerge, so forth. Interesting discussions I would say. You may want to read this very informative analysis from a Pakistani fellow: http://csf.colorado.edu/mail/wsn/2001/msg01388.html Best, Sabri
News from the antiglobalization front
Just found this in my mail box. Sabri ++ From: S29 Zapatista Block [EMAIL PROTECTED] Date: Mon, 17 Sep 2001 13:06:21 -0400 To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: S29 DC Update - Call for Input In light of the changed circumstances, the Latin America Solidarity Conference planning committee has postponed the Demonstration against the Military and Economic US Intervention in Latin America and the Caribbean. Instead, the planning committee is encouraging people to join actions to conquer the current threat of war and the racist attacks against members of the Arab-American community locally and in Washington DC. The Zapatista Block is re-focusing to support the efforts of an emerging DC coalition led by the Washington Peace Center and to contribute to an anti-authoritarian contingent at the Demonstration against War and Racism in DC on Sept. 29. We feel that we need to take the changed atmosphere in the society into account and need your input to answer questions that we have (how would a group wearing masks be perceived at this point and time etc.). Please visit the web page www.geocities.com/zapatistablock and add your feedback. In Solidarity, Daniel Guerin for the S29 Zapatista Block
Students for peace vigils and listserve / National Day of Action
Below are two e-mails from American students. Sabri + Subj:students for peace vigils and listserve Date: 01-09-16 14:37:20 EDT Hey All, Peace rallies and vigils are being planned on campuses across the country on Thursday, Sept. 20. Dozens of campuses have already signed on. there will be a vigil for peace at Hunter on the 20th at 4:30 in front of the West Building. A student anti-war listserve has been set up. Students can subscribe by sending an e-mail message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Spread the word. Christopher Day ++ Subject: National Day of Action Against Scapegoating Arab Americans and to STOP THE WAR *** NATIONAL EMAIL -- FORWARD WIDELY!! *** -- National Day of Action Against Scapegoating Arab Americans and to STOP THE WAR Thursday, September 20 1. Stop the War! 2. No racist scapegoating! Defend the Arab American, Middle Eastern, and Muslim communities! 3. Defend civil liberties! ** OVER 200 ANTI-WAR ACTIVISTS MEET AT UC BERKELEY, CALL FOR A MARCH AND RALLY AT NOON AT UC-BERKELEY ON THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 20 ** VOTE TO AGREE ON 3 POINTS OF UNITY ** WEAR GREEN ARM BANDS TO SHOW UNITY -- Exploiting the widespread grief and horror at the tremendous loss of innocent life in the September 11 attacks in New York and Washington, the U.S. government is preparing to embark on what they are saying will be a massive, protracted military campaign. They are now saying that this war effort will last at least a year and involve probably more than one poor Middle Eastern country. We must do everything possible to stop this bloody U.S. military retaliation and escalation. Many more innocent people -- citizens and soldiers -- stand to die if we do not stop this war drive. A truth that is being hidden in the media coverage and the political speeches is that these attacks are the result of a situation created by the U.S. government and its wealthiest, most powerful allies. U.S. military and foreign policy has reaped hatred -- any U.S. retaliation will escalate the hate of the U.S. and worsen an already bad situation. The U.S. government is using last week's tragedy to cause an even more devastating human tragedy across the globe. The military offensive being prepared abroad has been accompanied by a wave of racism, xenophobia and threats to basic civil liberties at home. Already, some of the ugly face of American chauvinism and racism has come out: a violent, racist, xenophobic, backlash has begun against Arab Americans, Muslims and South Asians across the country. A September 14 mass meeting (organized in less than 24 hours) of over 200 students and activists at the University of California Berkeley, voted for the 3 Points of Unity and called for a mass rally and march as part of a September 20 National Day of Action Against Scapegoating Arab Americans and to STOP THE WAR. On campuses throughout the nation, we call for rallies, teach-ins, marches, and other events to show solidarity and opposition to the war drive on this day. Within months of the attack on Pearl Harbor, racist hysteria against Japanese Americans led to the internment of nearly one hundred twenty thousands people solely on the basis of race -- we must never allow anything like that to happen again. Now is the time to act. Join many thousands across the country Thursday, September 20 for the National Day of Action Against Scapegoating Arab Americans and to STOP THE WAR. Contact us at: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * At UC-Berkeley, we call on everyone to join us: UC-BERKELEY RALLY TO STOP THE WAR In solidarity with the National Day of Action Against Scapegoating Arab Americans and to STOP THE WAR Thursday, Sept. 20 12 noon rally + march Sproul Plaza Contact us at: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * *NATIONAL GREEN ARM BAND CAMPAIGN* Cut out green arm bands with this Green Arm Band Pledge attached to them to pass out and wear across the country! (Green is a traditional Muslim color for peace and unity.) THE GREEN ARM BAND PLEDGE: - I oppose scapegoating -- I stand in solidarity with Arab, Muslim and Middle Eastern people. - I will speak out against scapegoating and offer to escort and come to the aid of any Arab, Muslim or Middle Eastern person facing racist harassment or attacks.
re: Crusade
Tim asked: Does Musharraf speak English? Yes, he does. Better than I do. These Americans are so ignorant, they don't know anything, used to say my grandmother back in those good old days. Just kidding Tim, Sabri In these days of sorrow and confusion, maybe this can help you smile a bit: http://www.toxicpop.co.uk/dsei/terrorist.jpg A British anarchist friend sent that on.
Fwd: IMC Brasil Statement on CNN supposed manipulation of images
For your information, Sabri Oncu = Forwarded mail: Date: Sun Sep 16, 2001 2:09 am Subject: IMC Brasil Statement on CNN supposed manipulation of images A couple of days ago a story written by a Brazilian student was posted at IMC Israel (http://www.indymedia.org.il/imc/israel/webcast/display.php3?article_id=6946) saying that his teacher at UNICAMP university had evidence that images CNN broadcast showing Palestinians celebrating the World Trade Center attack were actually old images from 1991 of Palestinians celebrating Kuwait's invasion. This story has since then circulated in the form of e-mails and hundreds of people commented on it. We finally managed to contact him and he was very worried about the repercussions of what he wrote. He said that his teacher later said that she didn't had a tape of the old CNN footage and she wasn't sure about it. Well, he's writing himself a statement clarifying what happened. Meanwhile, we would ask that people not spread this rumor further. Sincerely, Pablo Ortellado Independent Media Center Brasil Volunteer http://www.brasil.indymedia.org
CALL FOR PEACE JUSTICE!
Friends, Have a look at the petition below and sign it if you think appropriate. Best, Sabri Oncu http://www.thePetitionSite.com/takeaction/224622495
Re: Will Pakistan Jump to US Demands ?
In Pakistan itself, Islamism derived its strength from state patronage rather than popular support. The ascendancy of religious fundamentalism is the legacy of a previous military dictator, General Zia-ul-Haq who received solid backing from Washington and London throughout his 11 years as dictator. I had seen this sad movie in the early 1980s back home. The September 12, 1980 military coup played a significant role in the ascendancy of islamic fundamentalism in Turkey. Now those (the military) who helped it prosper to use against the left are fighting it. Sabri
Fwd: START THE ANTI-WAR MOVEMENT NOW!
Some on this list are apparently not interested in morality or praxis. Presumably they have already deleted this message. For the rest of us, the time is now to organize the anti-war movement. It is a matter of days before the U.S. and NATO launch a war, yes complete with ground troops, on Afghanistan, which has been harboring Osama bin Laden. This is in today's Guardian (guardian.co.uk). Some say Iraq will be attacked as well, but that the U.S. intends to overthrow the Taliban and occupy Kabul seems clear. They will systematically attack all suspected training camps in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, apparently with the cooperation of the Pakistani military regime. HOW MANY MORE INNOCENTS WILL DIE? The time is now to organize coalitions, rallies and marches, and teach-ins everywhere. As the pirate said when captured by Alexander the Great, and was asked how he dared molest the sea, Because I do it with a little ship only I am called a thief [substitute terrorist]: you, doing it with a great navy, are called an emperor. The U.S. has systematically starved the people and children of Iraq, and more recently Afghanistan, with economic sanctions. Now this largely unknown form of terror will be replaced with the most visible form of mass violence. THE PEOPLE OF AFGHANISTAN ARE NOT COLLATERAL DAMAGE, THEY ARE OUR BROTHERS AND SISTERS! NO U.S. WAR ON THE PEOPLE OF THE MIDDLE EAST!
(AFP) Protesters rethink strategies after deadly US attacks
Thursday, September 13 6:20 AM SGT Protesters rethink strategies after deadly US attacks LOS ANGELES, Sept 12 (AFP) - This week's deadly terrorist attacks in New York City and Washington are prompting activists to postpone protests and rethink their strategies, groups said Wednesday. The first casualty could be planned anti-globalization demonstrations at the September 29-30 meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund in the US capital. Things are definitely on hold, said Patrick Reinsborough of the San Francisco-based Rainforest Action Network. I think it's premature to talk about cancellation, Reinsborough said. We're in a sort of wait-and-see mode. A World Bank spokeswoman said Wednesday that no decision has been made on how to handle the annual financial meetings of 183 countries, but she added that the issue of the timing of the meetings certainly will be discussed in the coming days, giving the tragedy that has happened. Activists expressed concern that a loud, possibly violent protest in Washington later this month -- like recent ones in Genoa, Italy, Quebec City, Canada and Prague -- could damage support for their causes generated since the 1999 World Trade Organization protests in Seattle. We are not in a position to predict what kind of mood the country will be in (by late September), said Soren Ambrose of Washington-based anti-IMF group 50 Years Is Enough. We don't want to violate those sensibilities, Ambrose said Wednesday. Previously, we were not in a conversation about whether we should proceed or not, added Robert Weissman of Essential Action. Now we are. No activist group has pulled out of the IMF-World Bank protests but, I think you're hearing the beginnings of that conversation, said Carol Welch of Friends of the Earth, an environmental group. I think people will be a little concerned for their safety, Welch said. Organizations like the AFL-CIO -- the country's largest labor federation -- are grappling with getting financial assistance to the (terrorist) victims' families, and so I think that could potentially take some resources away that they might have dedicated to the protests. Reinsborough said his group canceled a public protest this week against paper and lumber conglomerate Boise Cascade. We don't want it to be confused with any doubts that people may have that we stand united against violence in all its forms, whether it's terrorist violence (or) institutional violence, he said. Weissman's Essential Action group was created by Ralph Nader. Nader's office said Wednesday that the veteran consumer activist and the 2000 Green Party presidential candidate would be unavailable for comment on the attacks for at least two more days. Activists expressed sympathy Wednesday for those killed in Tuesday's multiple strikes, though some groups used the attacks to repeat opposition to US policies. The War Resisters League, a small pacifist group, stated on its web site, may these profound tragedies remind us of the impact US policies have had on other civilians in other lands.
(Reuters) IMF staffers resigned to calling off meetings
IMF staffers resigned to calling off meetings Thursday, September 13, 2001 By Mark Egan, Reuters WASHINGTON #8212; Staff at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank were resigned Wednesday that their upcoming annual meetings at the end of September would be called off, saying an announcement was expected within days. The meetings are going to be called off, an IMF source told Reuters, adding that the lender was awaiting word from the U.S. Treasury #8212; the official host of the Washington summit #8212; before making an official announcement. The source said an announcement was at least two days away. D.C. Police Chief Charles Ramsey on Tuesday urged the international lenders to call off their meetings in the aftermath of terror attacks that caused both towers of New York's famed World Trade Center to collapse. The attacks also saw a hijacked plane crash into the Pentagon, costing many lives and putting local police and emergency workers into crisis mode. Washington Mayor Anthony Williams told local radio station WAMU Wednesday there were strong arguments in favor of calling off the meetings in light of security concerns. With tens of thousands of protesters expected at the meetings, slated to take place at the end of September, sources at the World Bank said the lenders had no desire to put Washington through any more trouble so soon after Tuesday's horrific events. Early estimates of the loss of life at the Pentagon range from 100 to 800 people. They will leave it for a couple of days before making an announcement, one World Bank staffer told Reuters. Among the problems posed for local police is how to manage crowd control in the face of an expected massive protest in Washington. Police had said they would rely heavily on officers drafted from New York and elsewhere to help staff the event. But given the massive operations in downtown Manhattan, it now seems impossible for the city to spare its own much-needed police to help Washington tackle antiglobalization protesters. Protests at global financial summits have grown increasingly violent recently, with one protester killed in clashes with police at a mid-July summit in Genoa, Italy. IMF spokesman Bill Murray and World Bank spokeswoman Caroline Anstey both said no decision had been made but that the meetings will be discussed in the coming days. This is an issue that will be reviewed in the coming days, Murray said. As the host country of the meetings, the United States advises the World Bank and IMF about security details of the meetings in Washington. Police were bracing for as many as 100,000 protesters to take part in violent demonstrations against the policies of both institutions. One of the main protest organizers, the Mobilization for Global Justice, is mulling its options including whether to curtail or downsize some of the protests. The annual meetings bring together finance ministers and central bank governors from around the world to discuss the global economic situation. The event, currently scheduled for Sept. 29 and 30, had already been shortened to two days because of the threat of violent protests. In the worst attack on American soil since Pearl Harbor in 1941, three hijacked planes slammed into the Pentagon and New York's World Trade Center on Tuesday. Two of the planes demolished the New York landmark's two 110-story towers that have symbolized U.S. financial might. Later in the day a third and smaller WTC tower that had been burning also collapsed. Officials fear the number of victims could climb into the thousands at the trade center, where 40,000 people worked.
(CNN) U.S. buildup at Turkey air base reported
U.S. buildup at Turkey air base reported September 13, 2001 Posted: 5:58 PM EDT (2158 GMT) By Jane Arraf CNN Ankara Bureau ANKARA, Turkey (CNN) -- Turkish military sources said Thursday the United States has beefed up its presence at Incirlik Air Base in south-central Turkey. The American base is used to monitor and bomb northern Iraq on a regular basis as part of Operation Northern Watch -- the operation that maintains the northern no-fly zone established after the Gulf War. Turkish military sources said the base seems to be gearing up for a major strike on Iraq -- more than just the routine patrolling of the northern no-fly zone. In the two days since the terrorist attacks in Washington and New York, the United States has sent in more troops to bulk up its force of 7,000 troops already there, the sources said. Movement in the towns surrounding the air base also has been restricted, they said. The Pentagon had no immediate comment. Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit told CNN Thursday in Ankara that Turkey would allow the base to be used on any attack against neighboring Iraq, as part of its commitments to NATO. On Wednesday, NATO invoked a Cold War-era mutual defense clause indicating the alliance's support of the United States. It was the first time in NATO's 52-year history the clause was invoked. It is a very powerful signal to the international community and to those who dabble in terrorism or who harbor terrorists, that the Western alliance will not stand easily by, said NATO Secretary-General George Robertson. According to Article 5, the cornerstone of the alliance, an armed attack against any of the NATO members shall be considered an attack against them all.
U.S. Treasuries Advance, Pushing 2-Year Yields to 50-Year Lows
Please, could someone send us a piece of good news? Sabri ++ 09/14 15:53 U.S. Treasuries Advance, Pushing 2-Year Yields to 50-Year Lows By Walden Siew and Heather Bandur New York, Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries gained, pushing two-year yields to the lowest level in almost half a century, as Tuesday's terrorist attacks drove investors to the safety of the most actively traded government securities. Two-year notes, which account for as much as 40 percent of trading by primary dealers, rose 6/32, or $1.88 per $1,000, to 101 13/32, according to Toronto Dominion. Yields fell 11 basis points to 2.87 percent in the second trading day after a two-day closure after the attacks destroyed the World Trade Center in New York and damaged the Pentagon near Washington. ``This is a natural flight to Treasuries,'' said David Kotok, president and chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors Inc. in Vineland, New Jersey, which has $500 million under management. ``Americans certainly consider them the safest securities. A better part of the world considers them to be so, as well.'' Two-year Treasury yields dropped more than a half-percentage point this week, to the lowest level since 1958 amid expectations the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates before its scheduled meeting on Oct. 2. That has widened the gap between two- and 30- year Treasury yields 7 basis points to 2.48 percentage points, the widest in eight years. Three-month Treasury bills, which account for about 14 percent of trading by primary dealers, were among the biggest gainers. The yield on the securities fell 17 basis points today to 2.64 percent. Yields fell 57 basis points in the last two days, the biggest decline since Oct. 13, 1989, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 6.9 percent. Rate Cuts Seen The implied yield on the March 2002 Eurodollar futures contract fell to 2.85 percent, down 52 basis points since Monday, signaling the Fed's target may fall below 3 percent in coming months. The contract is an indication of what traders expect three- month borrowing costs to be in the future. The Fed has already reduced its target for overnight bank loans, or federal funds, seven times this year to keep the economy out of recession. The target, at 3.5 percent, is the lowest in seven years and down from 6.5 percent when 2001 began. Growth in the U.S. slowed to a 0.2 percent annual pace in the second quarter, the lowest in eight years, from 5.7 percent a year earlier. ``The U.S. economy alone, before this terrible tragedy,'' was weak enough to ``require the Fed to cut rates, perhaps a quarter- point, in between meetings,'' said David Jones, chief economist at Aubrey G. Lanston Co., who expects the central bank to lower rates 1 percentage point, to 2.5 percent, by the end of the year. Treasuries held onto most of their early gains after the government said producer prices rose 0.4 percent in August, more than the 0.1 percent expected by economists in a Bloomberg survey, after dropping 0.9 percent in the prior month. Excluding food and energy, prices fell 0.1 percent. The government also said retail sales rose 0.3 percent last month, as expected. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.5 percent, more than the 0.4 percent gain anticipated. Separately, the Fed said output at factories, mines and utilities dropped for an 11th month in August, falling 0.8 percent, after a drop of 0.1 percent in July. Analysts had expected a 0.3 percent decline. Consumer Confidence Falls The University of Michigan yesterday said consumer confidence fell to an eight-year low. That ``confirmed the fragility of the economy before the crisis,'' said Peter Petas, a credit analyst at CreditSights, a New York-based research firm. Bond trading closed early, at 2 p.m. New York time, on the recommendation of the Bond Market Association, an industry trade group. An abbreviated session was also recommended for Monday. ``There aren't many players trying to make money,'' said Sadakichi Robbins, a fixed-income strategist at Bank Julius Baer. ``They're trying to save'' themselves. Garban Inter-capital, an inter-dealer broker that was in One World Trade Center, will probably be running from a back-up site on Monday, employees said. Prebon-Yamane (USA) Inc., a competing broker, has offered the company space in its New Jersey offices. Garban, which handles Treasury trades between primary dealers and customers, hasn't been able to operate out of London because its ability to conduct and settle trades relies on its U.S. division, traders said. BrokerTec, an on-line broker that wasn't affected by the World Trade Center disaster, made its prices available on the Bloomberg system and on the Internet.
Re: U.S. Treasuries Advance, Pushing 2-Year Yields to 50-Year Lows
what's wrong with low bond yields? why it this bad news? Jim, Low bond yields can be good, bad or neutral depending on the situation. Bad news in my opinion is that the Consumer Confidence fell to an eight-year low. And this occurred before the attack. This is noted towards the end of the article. Sabri
Taliban Condemn Attacks in U.S.
SEPTEMBER 11, 14:20 EDT Taliban Condemn Attacks in U.S. By Kathy Gannon Associated Press Writer KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) Afghanistan's hardline Taliban rulers condemned the devastating terrorist attacks in New York and Washington on Tuesday and rejected suggestions that Osama bin Laden could be behind them. ``We have tried out best in the past and we are willing in the future to assure the United States in any kind of way we can that Osama is not involved in these kinds of activities,'' the Taliban's foreign minister Wakil Ahmed Muttawakil told reporters. Muttawakil said Tuesday's attacks were ``from a humanitarian point of view surely a loss and a very terrifying incident.'' Asked whether the Taliban condemned the attacks on the United States, he said: ``We have criticized and we are now again criticizing terrorism in all its forms.'' Bin Laden, the exiled Saudi millionaire indicted in the United States on charges of masterminding the bombings of two U.S. embassies in East Africa in 1998, has lived here since 1996 under the protection of the ruling Taliban religious militia. Washington accuses him of running an international terrorist network. After Tuesday's attacks, a London-based Arab journalist said followers of bin Laden warned three weeks ago that they would carry out a ``huge and unprecedented attack'' on U.S. interests. Abdel-Bari Atwan, editor of the Al-Quds al-Arabi newspaper, said he received a warning from Islamic fundamentalists close to bin Laden, but did not take the threat seriously. ``They said it would be a huge and unprecedented attack but they did not specify,'' Atwan said in a telephone interview in London. ``We usually receive this kind of thing. At the time we did not take the warnings seriously as they had happened several times in the past and nothing happened. ``This time it seems his people were accurate and meant every word they said.'' Atwan, who interviewed bin Laden in 1996 and has since maintained contacts with his followers, said he believed the attack on the World Trade Center in New York was the work of ``an Islamic fundamentalist group'' close to bin Laden. But Abdul Hai Muttmain, the Taliban's spokesman in southern Kandahar, dismissed allegations that bin Laden could be behind the attacks in the United States. ``Such a big conspiracy, to have infiltrated in such a major way is impossible for Osama,'' Muttmain told The Associated Press in a telephone interview. He said bin Laden does not have the facilities to orchestrate such a major assault within the United States. The Taliban say bin Laden's communications have been taken away from him, but several sources close to him including his family members in Saudi Arabia say bin Laden has regular access to satellite telephones and other sophisticated communication equipment. Meanwhile, foreign aid workers and even Taliban commanders, who have spoken on condition of anonymity, say that the number of Arab nationals in Afghanistan has increased in recent months. ``They are in Kabul, Herat, Jalalabad. They have training centers in every province of Afghanistan,'' said one Taliban commander, who would not give his name. The Taliban, who espouse a harsh brand of Islamic law, have resisted U.S. demands to hand over bin Laden. After the attacks in East Africa three years ago, Washington retaliated with a blistering missile attack in August 1998, sending more than 70 Tomahawk cruise missiles into eastern Afghanistan apparently targeting training camps operated by bin Laden. The U.S. attacks killed about 20 followers of bin Laden's but bin Laden escaped unhurt. Since then he has been forced by the Taliban rulers to stop giving interviews and making statements. In Kabul foreign aid workers were keeping a low profile and security measures were heightened with most expatriates being advised to stay in their homes for fear of retaliatory attacks from the United States should evidence implicate bin Laden. But Muttawakil said there is no fear among the Taliban. ``Since there is no reason for an attack and we are not expecting any reprisal attack we are not taking any precautions,'' he said.
Re: Taliban Condemn Attacks in U.S.
Hi All, I hope our New Yorker friends are doing well. I don't know what to say about such a terrible tragedy that took away thousands of innocent lives and will make our lives much worse than they were before. Darker days are ahead. A friend from Turkey told me over the phone that several Turkish tv channels, qouting AP, said that the Japanese Red Army (JRA) assumed responsibility of the attacks. He also said that many tv commentators argue against this possibility. For your information, Sabri
Re: And now the attacks on Kabul
Chris, I don't think these attacks on Kabul are the job of the US. There is a group in Northern Afganistan, whose name I cannot recall now, fighting against Taliban and most likely this is their job. Two days ago their leader, I guess his name was Massoud, was assasinated in a suicide attack by two Arabs and it is believed according to AP that Taliban, Laden and the Pakistan Intelligence is behind this assasination. Of course my guess is no better anybody else's. Sabri
Re: financial news
Also, the story says Treasury bonds are getting scarcer because current projections say the national debt will be virtually retired by 2010, but doesn't explain how this can be on the new, new, disappearing surplus current projections. ... Believe it or not but I hate the idea that the US Treasury bonds may get scarcer, not that I believe they will any time soon. The US Treasury market is such a dense market with bonds from such a wide range of maturities (there are roughly 140 or so of them in these days) that it is the darling of those who estimate term structures, of course, for the benefit of humanity. Someone should tell the US Treasury that the well-being of humanity (well, at least, the well-being of me) depends on their issuance of more debt, from all maturities. It would be much nicer if they issue a 20 year bond regularly and I used to like that 4 year bond that they stopped issuing some years ago a lot. It used to help keep the curve smoother. There is nothing like self-interest as they say: with its help, we wish and do things that naturally will also benefit others. Sabri
Re: Sick Man of Europe: Next Generation (was Michael's question)
Dear Andrew, I hundred per cent agree with you on what is below. Finally, an unrelated note. If you want to travel to a country with lots of fascinating history, unending ancient structures in various stages of ruination and preservation, incredible food and friendly people, a country where modernity constantly interacts with forces rooted firmly in the past, Turkey is a great choice. Moreover, I sincerely hope what you say below is the case. Turkey is moving closer to that day when the contradictions inherent in it must be faced. I'm confident that the many diverse and warmhearted people of Turkey will find some way to continue living in peace, and find ways to significantly boost their mutual prosperity. As for the rest, it is best to say nothing. Best, Sabri Oncu
Sick Man of Europe: Next Generation (was Michael's question)
Friends, Let me tell you that it is impossible for mortals like me to keep pace with the discussions on PEN-L. I was thinking about responding to Michael's original question but when I looked at the archives, I saw that you had already produced a ton of e-mails on the subject. I apologize for responding so late but here you go. Let me start with what Andrew said: The United States, India, Israel, Turkey, and Mexico were able to remain both open societies and independent. Each of these successful nations embraced capitalism, albeit to different extents. Independent maybe, at least for some time, but Turkey, that is, the Turkish Republic (TR), has never been an open society and this remains true even today. From 1923 until the beginning of the Cold War, TR had been under a one party rule. The founding leader of the party, Mustafa Kemal, a former Ottoman General, was also the national chief and the concept of a national chief still plays an important role in the current day Turkish politics. Mustafa Kemal went to such extremes as accepting as his last name Ataturk (the father of Turks), given to them by the National Assembly a few years of the founding of TR. One of the recent debates I had witnessed a while ago among some Turkish socialists was on whether Kemal was the Lenin or Stalin of Turkey. While Marxist-Leninist were arguing that he was more like a Stalin , Kemalist-socialists, which is a contradiction in terms in my view, were arguing that he was the Lenin of Turkey. Coincidentally, these Kemalists-socialist happen to be Maoists as well and I don't think they have any objection to the concept of a national chief. Some others consider Kemal a benevolent dictator, and maybe he was, but benevolent or not, dictators repress people and kill some whether they like it or not. In another e-mail Michael said: ... I am sure that if I were committed to the success of the revolution, I would have had to do nasty deeds that would have made me shudder. Mustafa Kemal was comitted to the succes of his revolution and did nasty deeds that probably made him shudder later. The Turkish revolution of 1919-1922 had broken out in a poor economy, in the Sick Man of Europe, which had not had the ability to confront the imperialism powers head on. Clandestine operations had been doing great damage to the society. Less committed citizens had been bribed already. Misinformation had confused people, creating factional divisions. Further, the society had been divided among different ethnic groups and these ethnic-national-religous differences had been under manipulation by the Great Powers of the time. At the time the Hundred Years Peace, as Polanyi calls it, had already been over and the imperialists of the time had no reason to see the Ottoman Empire intact and decided that it was time to dismember her. The Turkish revolution of 1919-1922 was an anti-imperialist independence struggle against the Great Powers of the time. And the Kemalists (although Kemalism remained undefined until the Great Depression of 1929-32 and there still is much confusion about it) won this struggle. From there followed the Turkish Republic, which was founded in 1923. Kemalists were off-springs of theYoung Turks and hence Kemalists' original intention was same as that of the Young Turks, with whom they had coexisted for a while until the anihilation of their ancestors (guess by whom): To save the Ottoman Empire and install capitalism there from above. Their original intention was by no means to bring the Empire to an end and build a republic. But as an old fellow once said, the many individual wills active in history for the most part produce results quite other than those inteded - often quite the opposite. One thing remained the same though: the urge to install capitalism into the pre-capitalist Turkey from above, in some sense, in a manner similar to upgrading your operating system from Windows NT to Windows 2000. Upgrading from Windows NT to Windows 2000 was such a night-mare for me that I can imagine the difficulties the Kemalists had to go through to some extent. By the way, I strongly recommed that you let an IT specialist do the Windows upgrade for you, if you are not an IT expert yourself. This installation of capitalism into the pre-capitalist Turkey is what is known as the Kemalist revolution. Some argue that the Kemalist revolution was a bourgeois (unbelievable, I spelled it right this time) democratic revolution. I disagree. There was nothing democratic about it. It was a revolution from above and its main objective was to create a national capitalist class by any means appropriate, including totalitarianism, so that Turkey can find herself a place under the sun, that is, among the first class capitalist nations of the world. Although Turkey failed to achieve this objective, and in these days she is back to being the Sick Man of Europe once again, the regime
Re: Prince Bush wimps out against Communism
Andrew wrote: The word communist originally spoke to a utopian concept, where tyranny did not reign. Today, however, the large majority of the world's population uses the word to describe the political bosses of the USSR, and all those ideologically connected in some way to them. In my view, the Soviet regime was on balance much more tyrannical than it was noble. Thus, I argue that the Left should castigate Communists. I saw a better approach in the summer issue of ScienceSociety. One of the articles in this issue is by Jeffry Kaplow entitled The Illusion of a Passing. It is a review article on Francois Furet's 1999 book The Passing of an Illusion: The Idea of Communism in the Twentieth Century. Somewhere in this article Kaplow writes: . It is true that the Soviet heritage is, in many respects, a heavy burden for men and women of the left to carry, but it is our heritage, on which we, precisely as heirs to its original aspirations, must come to terms with, if we are ever to be politically effective. A polemic like Furet's does not help us to do so. Treating communism as another 'totalitarian' idea in order the better to denounce it does not allow us to understand why the Soviet state and society developed as they did. Don't know if the article can be found online. It is worth reading though if you have the hard copy, at least, in my subjective view. Best, Sabri Oncu
Re: Prince Bush wimps out against Communism
Andrew wrote: Does anyone suggest that the Left of today should issue a blanket apology for the crimes of Lenin, Stalin, Mao, and the rest? I would be hesitant to agree. How can activists of today be responsible for what some of our intellectual antecedents did when most of us weren't evenborn? I don't think Kaplow suggests a blanket apology for the crimes of our intellectual antecedents in his article. Nor does he suggest that the activists of today be responsible for what they did . Neither do I of course. As far as I see, Kaplow uses the phrase coming to terms deliberately and out of anger, probably without giving much thought to its meaning, because Furet, as Kaplow informs us, wrote his book of insults (hey, I made this one up) to come to terms with his own past among other things. Taking sentences from others' works and presenting them out of context can be confusing as you know. I wish you were able to read the entire article but unfortunatelly I am an awful typist, so sorry. Anyway! I leave this at that given Michael's request. Best, Sabri Oncu
Investors (re)discover bonds.
Bonds on Track to Beat Stocks: Rates of Return (Update1) By Heather Bandur New York, Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries are on track to beat the Standard Poor's 500 Index for a second year. That hasn't happened since 1981 and 1982, when the economy was in recession. Concern among some investors that the U.S. might again be headed for recession has hurt stocks and driven up prices on government securities, which pay a fixed rate of return and typically rise in price when the Federal Reserve is lowering interest rates. ``People are finally figuring out that they can lose money in their 401(k) account, so they're turning to bonds,'' said Peter McTeague, a bond strategist at Greenwich Capital Markets. ``The game is over'' for stocks, he said. Government securities have returned 5.9 percent this year including reinvested interest, according to a Merrill Lynch Co. index of bonds and notes. That compares with a -13.8 percent return for the SP 500, including reinvested dividends. Treasuries returned 13.3 percent last year; the SP -9.1 percent. ``Bonds tend to beat other asset classes, including stocks, at the end of a business cycle, through a recession and back out on the other side,'' said William Dawson, chief investment officer for fixed-income investments at Federated Investors in Pittsburgh, whose $194 million Total Return Bond Fund has returned 6.4 percent year-to-date. Layoffs and Profits Business investment in equipment last quarter had the biggest drop since 1980, when the economy fell into the first of two recessions during the decade. After returning 9.9 percent in 1981, Treasuries soared a year later, returning 28 percent. Stocks trailed bonds for both years, with the SP returning -4.9 percent and 20.4 percent, respectively. The comparison between today's economy and the one in 1981 and 1982 only goes so far. Inflation remains well-contained now, allowing the Fed to lower interest rates to spur growth. It soared between 1979 and 1981, forcing the government to pay a record 15 3/4 percent to sell 20-year notes. The Fed's interest-rate increases to end inflation helped bring on the recession then, while falling corporate earnings and a slowdown in consumer spending threatens to send the economy there now, analysts say. Companies such as Gateway Inc. and Ford Motor Co. have fired thousands of employees in an attempt to preserve profits. Under the direction of Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, the central bank has slashed the target for overnight bank loans 3 percentage points since January in an effort to stave off recession. The target, now at 3.5 percent, is the lowest in seven years. Rediscovering Balance Conventional wisdom has it that stocks rally six to nine months after the central bank begins reducing rates. Nine months after the start of the current cycle, investors are still waiting. The Nasdaq Composite Index is down 27.7 percent so far this year. ``Stocks are more volatile than bonds, and there's nothing in history that says they'll win every time,'' said Richard Sylla, co- author of ``A History of Interest Rates'' and a professor of economic and financial history at New York University's Stern School of Business. ``There were people who'd put all of their money in stocks. Now they're rediscovering a more balanced approach to investing.'' It's this shift in attitude that is turning investors onto bonds. Two-year notes, among the securities most sensitive to overnight rates set by the Fed, have rallied 1.5 percentage points since the start of the year to 3.59 percent yesterday, the lowest since they were first issued in 1972. They have returned 5.4 percent year-to-date, putting them on track to return 8.3 percent by the end of 2001. Ten-year notes have fared the best, returning 6.2 percent since January. On an annualized basis, they will return 9.2 percent this year if the current rally continues. Three Years? With some analysts calling for the central bank to lower its target interest rate below 3 percent in coming months, the two- year-old bond rally may turn into a three-year affair, which hasn't happened since Germany invaded Poland in 1939, according to Ibbotson Associates, a Chicago-based research firm. Bonds beat stocks in the three years between 1939 and 1941, returning 5.9 percent, 6.1 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively. The SP posted losses during those years, returning -0.4 percent, -9.8 percent, and -11.6 percent. Before that, one would have to look to the early years of the Great Depression to find the longest string of winning years for bonds and losing ones for stocks -- a four-year period between 1929, the year the stock market crashed, and 1932. The biggest loss for the SP during that time was in 1931, when it returned - 43.3 percent. Bonds returned 16.8 percent a year later, according to Ibbotson. McTeague at Greenwich Capital Markets predicts that 5- and 10- year Treasury
Turkey clamps down on mass Kurdish rally
Rob, I understand very well what you mean when you say being Australian is getting difficult. Take a look at what is below to see how difficult it already is to be Turkish. Sabri Oncu +++ Turkey clamps down on mass Kurdish rally By Ufuk Utkan ANKARA, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Prison cells in the Turkish capital Ankara overflowed on Saturday as police detained thousands of Kurds in a bid to stop a Kurdish rally planned for the city. In Istanbul, Turkey's biggest city, police fired teargas grenades and chased away groups of some 2,000 Kurds who had gathered to demonstrate in a suburb. Ankara officials sent detained protesters by bus to police stations in nearby regions after cells in the city were filled. At least 700 were arrested. Thousands of Ankara police, reinforced by colleagues from nearby towns and backed by armoured cars and riot squads, had patrolled city streets, checking identity papers and detaining hundreds of people, most of whom surrendered to police without a struggle. The People's Democracy Party (HADEP), which campaigns for Kurdish rights, eventually cancelled plans to hold a rally in the city, where officials had banned any mass gathering. A HADEP spokeswoman said one party supporter died late on Friday, falling to his death down a ventilation shaft in a party building in Istanbul where he had taken refuge from police. She said the accident happened after police broke up a 200-strong group of HADEP supporters about to board buses for Ankara. They have arrested drivers, confiscated documents and driving licences. They have told bus firms we had contracted that they were going nowhere, the spokeswoman said. This is directly concerned with our right to freedom of movement. TEARGAS GRENADES In Istanbul, police chased and fired teargas at a group of demonstrators as they were dispersing after a rally of some 2,000 in the Topkapi district of the city. HADEP officials said around 200 people had been detained. In the southeastern city of Batman around 20 people were injured as police broke up a gathering of HADEP supporters, the Anatolian news agency said. World Peace Day on September 1 has become a traditional protest day for Kurdish activists who want cultural rights, or autonomy, for Turkey's 12 million Kurds. Their immediate demands include free use of Kurdish in education and broadcasting, aims shared by the European Union which Turkey wants to join. The day is also the second anniversary of a move by Kurdish rebels to abandon their armed struggle with security forces. HADEP had aimed to bring 100,000 people together for the rally, but that total looks unlikely now. HADEP officials said around 1,000 had been arrested in Istanbul alone. Police fired in the air on Friday afternoon in the mainly Kurdish southeastern city of Diyarbakir to disperse up to 3,000 people chanting slogans in support of jailed Kurdish rebel leader Abdullah Ocalan. Ocalan issued orders from a Turkish jail in 1999, telling his Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) to withdraw from Turkey and give up its armed struggle with security forces by September 1. Since then, fighting between Turkish forces and the PKK has dwindled, although Turkey says the unilateral PKK pullout is a ploy and refused to recognise any ceasefire. The PKK says it has abandoned its armed struggle for a Kurdish homeland and now campaigns peacefully for Kurdish cultural rights within Turkey.
Our last hope: Allah
Top Turkish cleric says sermons to help lift lira ANKARA, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Turkey's top Islamic cleric said on Tuesday sermons at the country's mosques would urge the faithful to use the battered lira currency in an effort to stop the tender's months-long slide against the dollar. We will only tell the people...if we protect our currency, we will be a freer country, Mehmet Nuri Yilmaz told reporters. It is our responsibility to enlighten and inform the people. An economic crisis has sliced off more than half of the value of the lira against the dollar since the government was forced to quit defending it in February when political bickering unleashed turmoil in financial markets. The lira traded on Tuesday at 1,407,000 to the dollar. Observers are concerned the economy is becoming dollarised as investors and private citizens sell lira for hard currencies considered safer investments. Nearly half of all deposits are now in foreign currencies, analysts said. Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit on Monday said he backed a campaign to restore confidence in the lira. The effort includes slogans such as National money is national honour and Happy is he who uses the Turkish lira. The small left-wing Labour Party has even called for the dollar to be outlawed in Turkey. Our money has become non-transferrable among our citizens, Yilmaz said. Our citizens are not shopping, they are not renting homes. This saddens us. When asked if the sermons would influence mosque-goers, Yilmaz said: Without doubt, they will have an effect. Every citizen who attends Friday prayers listens to the sermon with his soul and tries to do what he hears. Turkey's population of 65 million people is overwhelmingly Muslim.
Cutting public spending in Argentina.
[When I read articles like this I usually find myself humming Cry for me Argentina. But this time I found myself humming The Autumn Leaves. Don't know why.] ANALYSIS-Key Argentine province faces September debt crunch By Alejandro Lifschitz BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Argentina's wealthiest but most heavily-indebted province, Buenos Aires, faces a litmus test in September: it must confront huge debt payments with coffers already straining amid economic crisis. Analysts agree the Argentine federal government, which is having to cope with a liquidity crunch of its own as it tries to fend off fears of a debt default, could step in to help provincial governments meet their debt obligations to head off any debt moratorium if necessary. But they warned that Buenos Aires province -- which now accounts for 33 percent of Argentine economic output and is home to a third of Argentina's population of 36 million -- must slash public spending sharply this year to avoid problems with its debt load. Investors fear an Argentine equivalent of the woes faced by Minas Gerais state in Brazil, when its own debt moratorium precipitated the devaluation of the real in 1999. In September alone, Buenos Aires -- which is run by the main opposition Peronists -- must meet $208.34 million in debt expiries, from local debt to Eurobonds, official figures show. September is a key month, analyst Eduardo Rodriguez Diez of private think-tank Fundacion Capital told Reuters. Although some of these bonds are held by the central government -- which could refinance them -- the main challenge is some $121.92 million in local treasury bills which must be repaid by September 19. Buenos Aires province's total foreign debt stood at $5.832 billion at the end of June, or around 6 percent of its domestic product. They have a monthly treasury deficit which does not allow them to cover their current obligations, said analyst Sofia Migueliz of international ratings agency Fitch Ibca. The woes of Buenos Aires province mirror those of Latin America's No. 3 economy as a whole, after three years without growth. During that time, consumption and investment have fallen, fiscal revenues have plunged, and public spending has risen along with interest rates. The liquidity crisis hit the province so hard it was forced to issue so-called patacon bonds to partially pay some state workers' salaries. The recipients can use them to pay off their taxes. Between January and June, the province had current income of $4.093 billion, down from $4.165 billion for the same period last year, while its costs rose to $4.731 billion from $4.648 billion. Worse still, almost half of the province's revenues come from the central government's payment of federal taxes. And in exchange for financial aid, the Argentine government has promised the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that it will be flexible over the amount it gives to the provinces -- which could translate into smaller payments. In the first six months of the year Buenos Aires province posted a $282 million deficit, when it had only been expected to go $24 million into the red. In the second half, Buenos Aires promised the central government that it would cut $500 million from its public spending in exchange for financial aid. But analysts feel the slice should be deeper. There should be an additional cut, said Fitch Ibca's Migueliz. He believes provincial governor Carlos Ruckauf -- a possible contender for 2003 presidential elections -- should cut state worker salaries and issue more patacon bonds to meet September's debt expiries. So far Ruckauf has ordered the issuance of $90 million worth of patacon bonds, but Migueliz estimates that by the end of the year that sum could rise to $600 million. I don't think they are going to let a province like Buenos Aires fall, said Aldo Abram, analyst at Exante consultancy. With the financing agreed with central government and what comes in via patacons, their needs should be covered. The province agreed to mirror central government measures to cut state worker salaries and some pensions to erase the budget deficit for the rest of the year. But the provincial legislature has blocked the application of that plan to date.
Re: Re: Distinguished Order of Miserabilists Update
Jim Devine wrote: but the following question is quite relevant, since anecdotes can easily deceive:What are the industry load factors looking like? +++ I agree. But I fly San Francisco-Boston-San Francisco by United at least once a month for the past three years. Call it a long distance commute if you like. So my personal sample size is quite large. The decrease in the number of passengers over the past few months is more than noticable. There used to be long lines in front of the entry points into the gates area, now there is hardly any line. After much more than half a million frequent flier points, they give me free upgrade certificates to the business class and until recently the business class had always been packed. Nowadays, you see empty seats. Here is another anectode: I am friends with a shop-owner who sells ties, socks, cigarettes and other similar garbage to the customers of Hotel Meridien in Boston. He said a few days ago that the occupancy rate at Boston Meridien in July was the worst for the past 10 years. Don't know from where he learnt this but you know how news spread in work-places. In today' s NYT there is this article entitled: U.S. Airlines Lower Fares to Spur Demand. Couldn't find it online but it is on page C8 of the Business Day section, if you read the hard copy. Take a look at it if you like. Sabri
News from Bloomberg
Below, there are two articles from today's Bloomberg. In the second of the articles below, an analyst with Lehman Brothers says: It is not a disaster. It could have been a lot worse. Also of importance is the statement, which is also in the second article below, from the founder and CEO of Gateway: We don't have to be a global business to succeed. We know we can succeed in the U.S. Interesting, isn't it? A few days ago in Bloomberg, another analyst from an investment shop, which I don't recall, referred to the ongoing Argentinian crisis as the slowest train wreck in history. As they say, get your news from the capitalists. But if you do that, you get very angry. Sabri Oncu ++ 08/28 16:27 U.S. Economy: Consumer Confidence Declined in August (Update2) By Brendan Murray Washington, Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- A gauge of U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in August to the lowest level in four months, a sign the economy may struggle to rebound after a yearlong period of the weakest growth since the last recession. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 114.3 this month from 116.3 in July. August's level was the lowest since 109.9 in April and reflected a decline in optimism about the current state of the economy. A measure of the outlook for six months from now rose. Job cuts at companies such as Deere Co. and Hughes Electronics Corp. are weighing on consumers' attitudes. In coming months, that may restrain consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy. ``The consumer is the last finger hanging on the edge of the cliff, and if we lose him,'' the economy may slip into recession, said Mitch Stapley, who helps manage $4 billion at Fifth Third Investment Advisors in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Stocks fell on investor concerns that corporate profits will suffer if consumers cut back, while Treasury securities rose on expectations that Federal Reserve policy makers will reduce the overnight bank lending rate an eighth time this year. Central bankers have reduced the benchmark rate by 3 percentage points to 3.5 percent, the lowest since April 1994, to shore up a sputtering economy. While that's helped bring down borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, it hasn't kept companies from trimming payrolls. Job losses are a major concern of Kennis Young, a 40-year-old sales representative from College Park, Georgia. ``I'm not going to go out on a limb in this economic environment,'' he said. Katie McGowan, a 32-year-old Chicago saleswoman, said the economy is in bad shape and she knows people who have lost their jobs this year. ``Since nobody is immune, it just seems like a silly time to be making selfish financial decisions,'' she said. Slow Second Quarter The economy grew in the second quarter at a 0.7 percent annual rate, the slowest in eight years. The quarter was the fourth in a row with growth at less than 2 percent, which last happened during the 1990-1991 recession. Central bankers next meet Oct. 2 and the median of 53 analysts in a Bloomberg survey expects officials to reduce the target rate to 3.25 percent. The government's 10-year Treasury note rose 5/8 point, pushing down its yield 8 basis points to 4.84 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 160 points, or 1.5 percent, to close at 10222.03. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 47 points, or 2.5 percent, to close at 1864.98. The component of the confidence index that tracks consumers' present situation fell to 145.8 in August, the lowest level since April 1997, from 151.3. A gauge of consumer expectations for the next six months rose to 93.3 from 92.9. While, the U.S. Treasury is more than halfway through mailing to taxpayers advance refunds of as much as $600 per household, that hasn't done much to shore up confidence. As of Aug. 24, the Treasury had sent out about 49 million checks valued at almost $21 billion, giving consumers a fresh injection of cash. Reason to Spend While that may give consumers with reason to keep spending, joblessness is cause for concern. New rounds of job-cut announcements at companies such as Deere, the biggest maker of farm equipment, are restraining optimism. Yesterday, Deere announced it would seek a buyer for its Homelite consumer-brand lawn-care business. Deere also plans to reorganize its construction and forestry division, cutting its payroll by about 2,000 jobs. Hughes Electronics, owner of the DirectTV satellite broadcasting service, said last week it plans to reduce its U.S. workforce by as much as 10 percent to cut costs as the economy slows. Hughes, a unit of General Motors Corp., employs about 7,900 workers. ``It's a really sluggish economy and we're heavily into consumer businesses,'' said Richard Dore, a spokesman for the company. The economy lost 259,000 jobs in the last four months and manufacturing employment hasn't increased in the past year, Labor Department
Re: Fw: NEW DEM DAILY: Help for Argentina: Right Decision; Valuable Lessons
SNIP During the Asian financial crisis of 1997-99, President Clinton's international economic team -- Treasury Secretaries Rubin and Summers, Commerce Secretary Daley, and U.S. Trade Representatives Kantor and Barshefsky -- provided sound policy guidance and calm assurance to markets. SNIP Compared to the pros on the field during the crises of the 1990s, the Bush team is so far turning in a junior-varsity performance. Let's hope the IMF decision shows they are getting their signals straight -- and let's also hope the brawling critics on the left and right sides of the grandstands take the game more seriously. SNIP I cannot say that the Bush team is doing a good job but whoever wrote this article gave undue credit to the Clinton team. As we say back home, even my father could have contained the Asian Crisis of 1997-1999. It was a financial crisis emanating from the periphery/semi-periphery. At that time the demand in the core was still strong and the South East Asians were able to export to the core, which made it not so difficult for the Clinton team to stop the crisis before it reached the core. This time it is different. This time it is the core which is the epicenter of the earthquake. This time the crisis is emanating from the core and shows all the signs of an overproduction crisis. How can one expect the Bush team to solve such a major problem? They don't even represent the finance capital and hence their interests don't coincide with the interests of the IMF. Further, as Chris once said: Global finance capital is at present virtually bankrupt of any ideas about what to do about the appalling situation in the world. Sabri Oncu P.S: Rob, thanks for the Miserabilists Update, yoldas.
Re: A strange murder in Turkey
Friends, If you see anything on this murder in your country' s media, could you please let me know? Best, Sabri Oncu
Re: A strange murder in Turkey
This one is from Rueters. I just found it a few munites ago. This sack with the word Allah written in blood mentioned below makes me suspect that this is the work of a mentally ill juvenile. Nestor' s comments on Argentina are interesting. There are mind boggling similarities between Turkey and Argentina, as well as many important differences. Anyway. Maybe I will write about these later. Sabri Boy held after stabbing of Turkish Jewish tycoon ISTANBUL, Aug 26 (Reuters) - Turkish police have arrested a teenage boy on suspicion of murdering a leading Turkish-born Jewish businessman found stabbed to death in a Muslim cemetery on Saturday, state-run Anatolian news agency said. Police discovered the body of Uzeyir Garih, a business magnate known for his outspoken liberal views, in the Istanbul graveyard less than two hours after he had been killed. He had been stabbed eight times. Garih was co-chairman of Alarko Holding (ALARK.IS), a major construction group active in Russia and Central Asia. The motive behind the killing was unclear. Television channels quoted security officials as saying the murder was unlikely to have been politically motivated. But Anatolian said a police search of the graveyard on Sunday turned up a sack with the word Allah written on it in blood. Police held Fuat N, a suspect described by local media as a mentally ill juvenile, in a nearby car as the search continued.
A strange murder in Turkey
Turkish Tycoon Stabbed to Death By BURAK BAKTIR The Associated Press ISTANBUL, Turkey, Aug 25, 2001 (AP) - The chairman of one of Turkey's largest business holdings and a prominent member of its Jewish community was found stabbed to death Saturday, police said. A suspect apprehended a few hours later confessed to the killing of 72-year-old Uzeyir Garih, police said. The suspect's name was not released, but local media quoted police sources as saying that he was a mentally disturbed Turkish youth and a drug addict. Garih headed the ALARKO group, a heating, ventilating and air conditioning company that also does construction in Turkey and central Asia. The group also is involved in tourism and seafood, and has joint ventures in England, Russia, Switzerland and Austria. He also wrote a column for the English-language Turkish Daily News in which he supported Turkey's expanding relations with Israel and Ankara's bid to join the European Union. Cemetery officials found Garih's body near the grave of Marshal Fevzi Cakmak, an independence war hero who fought invading British, French and Greek forces in the 1920s. Garih had left his office around noon Saturday after meeting with Bulgaria's Deputy Premier Nikolay Vassilev, said Seyit Mehmet Buruk, a spokesman for ALARKO. He was found stabbed several times about two hours later, private NTV television reported. His Mercedes was parked outside the Muslim cemetery. ``His assassination stunned us,'' the Anatolia news agency quoted Vassilev as saying at a news conference. ``We had our picture taken together. But I could not imagine that (his life) would have been over a few hours later.'' Cash and credit cards were found in his wallet, an unconfirmed news report said. Cemetery officials said Garih had been paying frequent visits to the Istanbul cemetery. Interior Minister Rustu Kazim Yucelen said Garih was visiting the grave of someone who had helped him in the past. In his last column, which was to be published Sunday, Garih addressed the need to restore political confidence to overcome a crippling financial crisis that has halved the Turkish lira's value since February. ``Trust in the government must be restored,'' private CNN-Turk television quoted Garih as writing. Garih was married with two children.
U.S. Backs Israel in Rejecting UN Monitors in Middle East
U.S. Backs Israel in Rejecting UN Monitors in Middle East By Bill Varner United Nations, Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. and Israel told the United Nations Security Council that they're against sending UN observers to the Middle East, as proposed in a resolution by Islamic nations. Twice before, in December and March, the U.S. blocked resolutions that would have created an observer force, saying that both sides had to agree to the idea. ``We question the appropriateness and effectiveness of any action here in New York,'' Acting U.S. Ambassador James Cunningham said. ``What is required now is not rhetoric, not debate that polarizes an already volatile situation, and certainly not an effort to condemn one side with unbalanced charges or to impose unworkable ideas that will not change the reality on the ground.'' Cunningham was referring to the draft resolution of the Islamic Conference, which calls for a UN ``monitoring mechanism'' to implement the Mitchell Report, which called for a cease-fire and steps to reduce mutual suspicion before renewed negotiations. The Islamic resolution also calls on Israel to withdraw from the Orient House, the unofficial headquarters of the Palestinian Authority in East Jerusalem that Israel seized and closed. Israeli Ambassador Yehuda Lancry described the seizure as an ``act of self-defense'' because it was being used to carry out terrorist attacks. He said Israel's military actions in Gaza and the West Bank were ``in accordance with international law.'' Lancry said the Islamic resolution condemns Israel without calling on the Palestinian Authority to end terrorism, and that a UN monitoring force would not be able to stop terrorist attacks. Israel Accused of Atrocities Palestinian Ambassador Nasser Al-Kidwa accused Israel of atrocities and said his government condemns violence directed at civilians. He said the violence followed the beginning of the ``bloody military campaign'' by Israel last September. Samir Abu Zeid, an official of the Palestinian Resistance Movement, died Sunday along with two of his children, while making a bomb at his home near the Egyptian border, the Israeli army told Reuters. Palestinians said an Israeli missile hit the house. Israeli bulldozers today leveled two four-story Palestinian apartment blocks and a nursery school that Israeli authorities said were being built without permission in East Jerusalem, Agence France-Presse reported. At the Security Council meeting today, France, China, Tunisia, Singapore and Mauritius expressed support for the idea of sending UN troops to the Middle East. All of the speakers said implementation of recommendations contained in the Mitchell Report was the best means of attaining peace in the region. As a permanent member of the Council, the U.S. has the power to veto the Islamic resolution.
Re: Re: Re: Tobin tax - for safe water
Dear Chris, I have been checking my e-mails before I get ready for a business trip that will last until Friday and saw your mail. I am sorry since I don't have the time for a lenghty response. I agree with you that this is an important topic for discussion. As you might have gathered already, I have no problems with actively participating in and supporting the reform struggles. I plan to write about my reasons later. Let me say this however: I don't see any difference between winning this world and saving it. I am not sure if I will have the time to write this weekend but I will definitely be back with the list the coming Monday. In the mean time, I hope this discussion continues on this list without my presence until next week. I also hope that such a discussion doesn't lead to major fights. Let us see if you can manage to pleasantly surprise me by not turning this into a major fight. Best and see you next week, Sabri
Re: Re: Tobin tax - for safe water
Chris wrote: Otherwise the best of leftists seem to get bogged down in a muddle of doubts and hesitations, a) its reformist b) its impossible c) it is probably not marxist, d) it's irrelevant because capitalism is going to collapse within 18 months. Dear Chris, How do you expect the dog remain calm if you keep biting away at it? By the way, I personally support the Tobin Tax. Had we had the Tobin Tax or some other brake in place, TL wouldn't have depreciated more than 50% since February and there wouldn't be such a collective madness in the streets of Turkey today. What is going on there is nothing but economic genocide. I don't see any reason to be against a pain killer if there is no immediate cure to the disease. Best, Sabri
Re: OFFLIST: Re: On a recent development in Turkey
Here you go Michael: http://msanews.mynet.net/MSANEWS/200106/20010613.1.html This is an article by Ziya Onis, a professor of International Relations at Koc University, Istanbul. As I said, he is by no means a radical. He used to be an establishment economist and, by the look of it, he is now an establishment international relationist, whatever this means. I just came across a list of his other works in the page below while searching for the above link and the titles of his other works look interesting too: http://www.ku.edu.tr/ir/ When there, click on Recent Publications in the list on the left of the page. Best, Sabri In a message dated 01-08-19 00:16:27 EDT, you write: If you are interested in a reasonable but not-so-radical article about the turn in Turkish Foreign policy from the Peace in the Country - Peace on Earth approach to an imperialist tendency towards the Balkans, Middle East and Turkic Republics of the former USSR in the early 1990s, I can send you a link later. I have to sign off now. Just let me know if there is any interest. Sabri, I'm interested, if you still have the link handy. Michael
Re: Re: On a recent development in Turkey
In a message dated 01-08-12 16:43:35 EDT, you write: Thanks for the information, Sabri and Rob. The U.S. military has a policy of readiness for wars on 2 1/2 fronts simultaneously. So here we have Turkey and Argentina. Russia still limps along thanks to higher oil prices. Brazil seems linked to Argentina. What order of magnitude lift can come from another half percent interest rate and the tax cuts? I was just about to sign off so here is a short note: Rumour also has it that Turkey may enter into war in the Balkans if such a war breaks out. I heard this from a few friends and read two or three articles about the possibility of a Balkan War in various Turkish newspapers. The following is a hard fact though: the high level military and intelligence traffic between Turkey and USA has increased significantly. Tennet (sp?), the head of CIA, was in Turkey in July. High level military and intelligence traffic between Israel and Turkey is quite heavy too, as most members of this list would be able to guess. While I was there I read in the unofficial party newspaper of the Party of Labor (EMEP, Marxist-Leninst and formerly Anwar Hodjaist) ), Evrensel, a news article on a secret meeting in the offices of the Sabanci Group (ranked 481st in Forbes 500 this year; Sabanci familiy is the second richest family in Turkey) among high ranked US and Turkish military and intelligence officers, some cabinet members and several members of the bussiness community. Sabanci Group neither accepted nor denied the meeting as far as I recall. Of course, I don't take this as proof that the meeting occurred but even if this is a rumour, it has some signalling value I would say. If you are interested in a reasonable but not-so-radical article about the turn in Turkish Foreign policy from the Peace in the Country - Peace on Earth approach to an imperialist tendency towards the Balkans, Middle East and Turkic Republics of the former USSR in the early 1990s, I can send you a link later. I have to sign off now. Just let me know if there is any interest. Best, Sabri
Re: On the Rhetoric of E-Mail
Dear Carrol, I have been watching PEN-L form the website every now and then, and had no intention to re-subscribe. But after reading your e-mail, just to be able to respond to you, I re-subscribed and after this e-mail I will unsubscribe. By the way: HI ROB! Back to Carrol, Are you aware that people like me have no idea about the words like below? Terse Elliptical Allusive Miscontruals Even Michael Pugliese' s criptics are easier to understand than these at times. If it is easier for you, send me some equations and I will understand them just fine though. And don't tell me that I should open a dictionary. If you do that I will respond to you in Turkish so that you would understand what it means to open a dictionary for every single word. Best and bye you people, Sabri
