BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, MARCH 2, 2001 RELEASED TODAY: In January 2001, there were 1,522 mass layoff actions by employers as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single establishment and the number of workers involved totaled 200,343. The number of layoff events was the lowest for January since the series began in April 1995, while the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance was the lowest since January 1996. These lower levels were due, in part, to a calendar effect, since January in both 1996 and 2001 contained 4 weeks that ended in the month compared with 5 weeks in each of the other four Januarys. ... Despite the economic slowdown, labor markets in most regions and states showed little weakness in January, as unemployment rates were stable in most areas, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Jobless rates in all regions, except parts of the Midwest, were slightly lower in January than they were a year ago, or they were virtually unchanged. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-9). New claims filed with state agencies for unemployment insurance benefits rose by 39,000 to a seasonally adjusted 372,000 in the week ended Feb. 24, the Employment and Training Administration announces. "While the job market has deteriorated over the last year, the weekly data still does not portray an economy in a recession," says a senior economist at Merrill Lynch. "We expect next week's payroll employment report to show a gain of just 65,000 for February." ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-7). From Statement of Secretary of Labor Elaine L. Chao regarding the budget, Feb. 28, 2001: "We are also planning for increased funding to modernize and expand the vital data collection done by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is our early warning system in times of economic uncertainty. ... " Although the manufacturing sector continued to show declines in employment and new orders, it may be close to the bottom of its decline, according to figures from the National Association for Purchasing Management. Slower rates of decline are observed in six of the nine measures of manufacturing activity tracked by the organization. So far, the economic slowdown has been concentrated in manufacturing, with many service industries continuing to expand. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-8). American consumers continued to flock to car dealerships in February, despite the economic slowdown, producing another unexpectedly strong month for auto sales. Sales fell 6 percent last month from February 2000, but the year earlier month had been one of the best in the industry's history because of lavish incentives. ... (New York Times, page C1; Wall Street Journal, page A3). Personal income rose 0.6 percent and personal spending 0.7 percent in January, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, both seemingly strong numbers. But economists noted that energy-related inflation reduced real spending to just 0.2 percent and left real after-tax incomes flat. they also said that the personal savings rate fell to minus 1.0 percent -- a record low. Economists say the numbers show that consumers continued to spend in January, but analysts are divided over whether spending will remain strong enough to buoy a weakening economy. ... (USA Today, page 1B). The manufacturing sector of the economy remained weak last month, but the worst of its decline may be over, according to the National Association of Purchasing Management. Meanwhile, other reports show increases in personal income, spending, and construction in January, causing some analysts to suggest the U.S. economy will continue to grow in the last 3 months of the year. Personal income rose a strong 0.6 percent in January, with the key wages-and-salaries portion up even more, 0.7 percent, the Commerce Department reports. The big increase in pay was the result of both a solid increase in the number of workers on payrolls and the number of hours worked. Both those factors were influenced to some extent by a swing from unusually bitter winter weather in December to more normal weather in January. Personal consumption expenditures, which include spending on goods and services of all types, also increased 0.7 percent. But, after adjustment for inflation, particularly for energy services such as natural gas, the real increase was just 0.2 percent. That real gain matched that of December and was above the 0.1 percent increase in both October and November. Separately, U.S. automakers reported that sales fell 1l percent in February, which was less than forecast. Strength in housing and other construction should help the economy stay out of recession, some analysts say. ... (Washington Post, page E6; Wall Street Journal, page A2)_A gauge of manufacturing rose last month for the first time in a year, and consumer spending in January was the strongest i
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, MARCH 5, 2001:
The University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence fell again
last month but not by as much as expected, and the director of the survey
said the free fall in confidence is over. "Consumers judged prospects for
their own incomes as well as inflation more positively in February" than
they did in January, said the director, "and they anticipated that the
overall economy would show improvement later in the year." However, he
cautioned that further small declines are likely in coming months, and
that consumer spending isn't apt to rise substanially soon (The Washington
Post, March 3, page E1).
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index has now registered
its sharpest 3-month fall since October 1990, in the midst of the last
economic contraction (Reuters in The New York Times, March 3, page B4).
Government statistics show layoffs in the Midwest are running twice as
fast as in the nation as a whole; the region is strongly tied to
manufacturing, which has been hit harder than most other sectors during
the current economic slowdown. And a slowing economy is just the
beginning of the Midwest's potential headaches. A strong dollar is
crimping exports of durable goods, a large percentage of which are made in
the region. Rising prices of natural gas and fossil fuels, consumed in
larger numbers here than in the U.S. as a whole, are taking a toll on
corporate and household budgets. And corporate bankruptcies, some
economists say, are beginning to pick up. Yet practically no one in the
Midwest sees a repeat of the events that triggered in previous decades the
Rust Belt images of abandoned mill towns, waves of bankrupt smokestack
businesses and rapidly rising joblessness. An economist at broker-dealer
Griffin, Kubik, Stephens says "The manufacturing sector is much more
productive, and factories are more resilient, more robust and more
profitable. The pain will be much less" ("The Outlook" column by Joseph
T. Hallinan in The Wall Street Journal, page 1).
The Wall Street Journal's "Tracking the Economy" feature (page A10)
indicates that productivity figures in the fourth quarter, due from BLS
tomorrow, will likely be 2.0 percent if they meet the prediction of
Thomson Global Forecast. The previous actual quarterly figure is 2.4
percent. Unit labor costs, out the same day, will likely be 4.5 percent,
compared to 4.1 percent the previous quarter. The unemployment rate for
February, to be released Friday, is predicted to be the same as that in
January, 4.2 percent.
The average household in six metropolitan areas -- from Houston to
Pittsburgh -- now spends more on transportation than it does on housing.
According to research by the Surface Transportation Policy Project,
Houston households spent the most on transportation in 1999, an average of
$9,237, while shelter costs were only $7,167. One factor that drives
transportation costs is the attempt to gain more affordable housing by
moving farther out of city centers, researchers say. In Phoenix shelter
cost $7,725 and transportation $7,851; in Kansas City shelter cost $6,538
and transportation $7,558; in Dallas/Fort Worth shelter was $7,358 and
transportation $7,524; in St. Louis shelter cost $6,435 and transportation
costs $6,790, and in Pittsburgh shelter was $4,945 and transportation
$5,623. The study used the Bureau of Labor Statistics' annual survey of
28 metropolitan areas. Transportation costs include vehicle, gas,
maintenance, insurance and public transit, but not air or ship travel.
Shelter costs include mortgages, rent, maintenance, taxes, and insurance
(USA Today, page 4A).
Many employers are not cutting back on their use of temporary hires,
despite the recent economic slowdown. There were about 3.7 million
employees in temporary service jobs in January, according to preliminary
numbers from the Department of Labor. That's down only slightly from 3.9
million in September, and still above the 3.4 million workers employed by
providers of employment services in January 1999. The average daily
employment of temps in 2000 topped 3 million, according to a report to be
released today by the American Staffing Association (ASA) in Alexandria,
Va. That's a 4 percent increase over 1999. "Members continue to have more
demand than supply," says an ASA executive. "Some companies are keeping
supplemental workers on just until they figure out what's going to occur
with the economy." Behind the continued use of temps: Companies remain
hungry for workers because the unemployment rate is at a tight 4.2
percent; others are trying to control costs by relying on contract workers
for project-specific worth rather than adding full-time employees. Some
employers are continuing to hold onto their temporary workers because they
remain hopeful the economy will per
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: BLS Daily Report
Nurses are distinctly underpaid in relation to their responsibilities -- in the hospital, they are the ones who keep you alive. maggie Jim Devine wrote: I have no complaints about PAs. When I was on the HMO, the doc's office assigned me to the PA (since they treated me as a second-class citizen). Then I went on the Preferred Provider plan and got the doc himself. He's fine, but too much into prescribing pills as a solution to all ills. I'm back on the HMO now (I've got to cut costs!) so I'm a second-class citizen again (I get sent out to get my blood checked for cholesterol rather than having it done in-house), but I wouldn't mind seeing the PA again. Many nurses complain about the high pay that PAs get, though. At 08:17 PM 02/27/2001 -0600, you wrote: Yeah, but Physicians Assistants make more, on average, than nurses and can go into practice for themselves. Also, at least for women, PAs often provide better care than MDs -- for ex., PAs are midwives and provide routine gynecological care. I went to a PA for years instead of a gyno, and she pulled me through a couple of problems the gynos couldn't identify. Also, PAs are frequently trained in abortion and can provide services in a doctors office in many places where there are absolutely no other service providers available. maggie coleman Jim Devine wrote: Some nursing jobs have been taken over by Physicians' Assistants, who are basically low-paid MDs. At 12:17 PM 2/26/01 -0800, you wrote: Part time nurses under temporary contracts are doing quite well, although hospitals are downgrading many traditional nursing jobs to have non-professionals take over. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University [EMAIL PROTECTED] Chico, CA 95929 530-898-5321 fax 530-898-5901 Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~JDevine
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 28, 2001 Consumer confidence in the economy deteriorated for the fifth consecutive month in February, plunging 9 percentage points to an index level of 106.8, the New York based Conference Board reports. The business research organization says February's consumer confidence numbers are at their weakest point since June 1996, when confidence fell to 100.1. The consumer confidence survey based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households, found consumers not only view current business conditions as weak, but many expect business conditions and the employment outlook to worsen over the next 6 months (Daily Labor Report, pg. A-2). Consumer confidence fell this month to a level usually seen only during recessions, as American households' expectations about their economic future plunged, according to a report released yesterday. Two other reports on last month's new orders for durable goods -- such as cars, appliances, computers and machinery -- and sales of new homes, showed much less weakness and were not nearly as disturbing to analysts as what has been happening to consumer attitudes (The Washington Post, page E1). There is now a record divergence in the Consumer Confidence index's two components: The index of consumers' expectations for 6 months stood 40 percent lower than its September level; at the same time, consumers' assessment of their current situation is off only 10 percent since September. The director of the New York Conference Board's research center said the gap between the two components is the widest since 1967, when the data were first collected. He attributed the gap to soaring confidence in recent years combined, it appears, with recent layoff announcements (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). As the Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan prepared to testify before Congress today about the nation's economy, three reports offered new, if murky, evidence yesterday of economic weakness. Consumer confidence, which Greenspan has called a key measure for the coming months, fell in February for the fifth consecutive month, according to the Conference Board. Americans sharply slowed the pace at which they bought new homes in January, the Census Bureau said. And spending by consumers and businesses on large, long-lasting items fell last month, although the decline was largely limited to the purchase of cars and airplanes, the Commerce Department says. Investors took the new statistics as evidence that the Federal Reserve was likely to cut its benchmark interest rate for overnight bank loans either at its March 20 meeting or even before (The New York Times, page C1; The Wall Street Journal's page 1 graph is of durable goods orders, 1998 to the present). Manufacturing layoffs led to an 11 percent increase in U.S. unemployment insurance claims for the first 5 weeks of 2001 compared with last year -- the biggest jump for that period in a decade. Great Lakes states were hit hardest, with the worst showings in Indiana, up 61 percent, and Michigan, up 58 percent. Construction cutbacks caused by overbuilding in the Atlanta area contributed to the 52 percent surge in Georgia, while other South Atlantic states were hit with layoffs by textile/apparel and other nondurable goods producers. The Rocky Mountain region outperformed the nation, Utah and Colorado recorded the ninth and 10th highest increases in claims, respectively, partly because of layoffs in mining operations and smaller telecommunications firms (The Wall Street Journal, page B8). Both the amount of commercial natural-gas consumption and the price of that natural gas are increasing, according to a graph in USA Today (page 17A), whose data is attributed to the Energy Information Agency. Total commercial spending on natural gas in 1999 was $16.3 billion, $21.3 billion in 2000, and an estimated $27.7 billion in 2001. DUE OUT TOMORROW: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment, January 2001. application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, MARCH 1, 2001: RELEASED TODAY: "Regional and State Employment and Unemployment: January 2001" indicates that regional and state unemployment rates generally were stable in January. Three of the four regions posted little change over the month, and 43 states and the District of Columbia recorded shifts of 0.3 percentage point or less. The national jobless rate rose from 4.0 percent in December to 4.2 percent in January. Nonfarm employment increased in 28 states and the District of Columbia in January. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan February 28 told the House Financial Services Committee that policymakers are paying close attention to how consumers might translate their increasingly gloomy mood into lower spending as the economy continues its "retrenchment" that has weakened overall growth significantly since the middle of last year. Consumer and business demand could decline further in coming months, he acknowledged. "But all in all, the demand for houses and consumer durables has not matched the weakened level of confidence," he said (Daily Labor Report, page D-1; A-9). Two weeks after suggesting that the economic downturn was likely to be relatively brief, Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve Chairman, gave Congress a somewhat more pessimistic assessment, saying the slowdown "has yet to run its full course". He left little doubt that further interest rate reductions were coming to follow up on the two half-point cuts made by the Fed in January (Richard W. Stevenson in The New York Times, page C1). A sharper than previously estimated decline in the accumulation of inventories pulled fourth quarter real gross domestic product growth down to a revised 1.1 percent, its slowest pace since the second quarter of 1995 when it grew only 0.8 percent, according to a Department of Commerce report (Daily Labor Report, page D-3; Reuters in The New York Times, page C9). The tight labor market of the past 7 years made it easier for workers to find new jobs when they were hit by a permanent layoff, says Business Week in its "Economic Trends" feature (March 5, page 30). Nevertheless, those who found new jobs still saw their weekly income fall when compared with the wages of those workers who kept their old jobs. These are the conclusions of a new paper by economist Henry S. Farber of Princeton University. Farber used the Labor Department's Displaced Workers Survey, which is conducted every 2 years. The date of the most recent survey is February 2000. About 27 percent of all graduates students in science and engineering are foreigners, and the percentage is rising, says David Wessel in The Wall Street Journal's "Capital" feature (page 1). The number of Americans enrolling is falling, and the number of foreigners is climbing. A strong job market that hires young Americans away from graduate student stipends is partly responsible. The danger is that in the years ahead, fewer foreigners, Asians in particular, will choose to stay in the U.S. after finishing graduate school. "Economies are doing well elsewhere, says a CUNY dean. "When I came, a lot more students stayed. These days there are a substantial number of students who go back -- to wherever they came from or to some third country." Training foreign scientists may be America's most effective foreign aid program, but scientists and engineers are crucial to future domestic prosperity in this country, and for American colleges to count on a continued flow of foreigners because the profession can't attract Americans is a risky strategy. The labor shortage may be driving entrepreneurs crazy, but it hasn't driven up wages for their workers, says Business Week, March 5, page F6). About 40 percent of small-company employees got a goose egg for a raise last year. On the other hand, small companies were twice as likely as bigger ones to pass out huge hikes to a select few, says Fortune Personnel Consultants. Big companies often have to boost pay because of long-term employment contracts, says the consulting firm. Small companies have more flexibility in deciding whether to play Santa or Scrooge. application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 2001: Average hourly earnings for private-industry nonfarm workers in January rose 3.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted $14.02 from the year-earlier period, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says. But in 1982 dollars, adjusting for inflation, wages rose by a penny to $7.89 (The Wall Street Journal's "Work Week" feature, page A1). Home resales slowed to their slowest pace in a year last month, prompting some economists to worry that one of the strongest sectors of the economy may also be starting to deteriorate. The National Association of Realtors reported yesterday that sales of previously owned houses, which account for 80 percent of the total overall housing market, dropped 6.6 percent in January -- their second big drop in 2 months -- to an annual rate of 4.65 million units. That was still higher than the 4.54 million rate in January 2000. Economists cited plunging consumer confidence, stock market volatility, slower job growth and higher energy prices as reasons for the decline, as well as a shortage of houses for sale. The January number covers many houses sold in December, the Realtors said. U.S. economic growth slowed sharply that month, prompting fears of recession. January figures were mixed -- including a 5.3 percent rise in housing starts -- which left economists divided about economic prospects (The Washington Post, page E6). The National Association of Business Economists slashes its growth forecast for this year to 2 percent from 3.4 percent, but believe tha a recession can be avoided. A panel of 34 forecasters polled the first 2 weeks in February expects the economy to strengthen next year to 3.5 percent, which would be moderate when compared with growth of 5 percent in 2000 and above 4 percent the previous 2 years (Daily Labor Report, page A-5). As the economy slows, job offers are getting rescinded, says The Wall Street Journal (page B1). Recruiters and employment attorneys say job offer withdrawals appear regularly during economic slowdowns, when beleaguered companies become trigger-happy and quickly cut staffers. Start-ups often keep recruiters in the dark about low funding and other signs of management trouble. Employers aren't generally required to provide severance or outplacement for people whose job offers are withdrawn. But such workers have sometimes sued to recover their relocation expenses. Applications to many colleges and universities are climbing in the wake of an economic slowdown and increase in layoffs, says USA Today (page B1). The surge has some educators scrambling to raise admission standards and hire professors out of retirement. Schools are receiving 10 to 40 percent more applications than at this time last year. Much of the rise is being attributed to workers seeking to upgrade their skills as the economy slows, a return to the classroom by laid-off employees and efforts by schools to upgrade programs to attract students. "The job market is still really good, but we're beginning to see layoffs and people pay attention," says the vice president for research and information services at the Council of Graduate Schools in Washington, D.C. "One thing they do is go to graduate school." The fastest growing industries in order of growth, according to a survey of 947 executives and 312 executive search firms by ExecuNet.com, Norwalk, Conn., are high-tech, communications, Internet, medical/pharmaceuticals, and business services. The fastest growing executive functions, again in order of growth, are sales, management information systems/information technology, marketing, business development, and general management (The Wall Street Journal, page B14). An article on what people earn, a regular once-a-year feature in "Parade" magazine, appeared in the February 25 issue, with many facts attributed to BLS. Says the article, "demand for college professors is expected to jump 23 percent from 1998 to 2008 -- nearly twice the projected growth for the overall labor force." A graph shows annual median hourly wages for 1990, 1995, and 2000 ($10.01; $11.43; and $13.74) with the comment that although wages have risen in the last 10 years, salaries actually have remained relatively flat when inflation is accounted for. A table showing weekly wages by occupation, and another showing which jobs are growing fastest, include data attributed to BLS. application/ms-tnef
Re: Re: BLS Daily Report
Also, full time nurses work short staffed and forced over time on a routine basis. My mother was just is for cancer surgery and the night nurses worked 12 hour shifts all the time. maggie coleman Michael Perelman wrote: Part time nurses under temporary contracts are doing quite well, although hospitals are downgrading many traditional nursing jobs to have non-professionals take over. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University [EMAIL PROTECTED] Chico, CA 95929 530-898-5321 fax 530-898-5901
Re: Re: Re: BLS Daily Report
Yeah, but Physicians Assistants make more, on average, than nurses and can go into practice for themselves. Also, at least for women, PAs often provide better care than MDs -- for ex., PAs are midwives and provide routine gynecological care. I went to a PA for years instead of a gyno, and she pulled me through a couple of problems the gynos couldn't identify. Also, PAs are frequently trained in abortion and can provide services in a doctors office in many places where there are absolutely no other service providers available. maggie coleman Jim Devine wrote: Some nursing jobs have been taken over by Physicians' Assistants, who are basically low-paid MDs. At 12:17 PM 2/26/01 -0800, you wrote: Part time nurses under temporary contracts are doing quite well, although hospitals are downgrading many traditional nursing jobs to have non-professionals take over. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University [EMAIL PROTECTED] Chico, CA 95929 530-898-5321 fax 530-898-5901 Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
Re: Re: Re: Re: BLS Daily Report
I have no complaints about PAs. When I was on the HMO, the doc's office assigned me to the PA (since they treated me as a second-class citizen). Then I went on the Preferred Provider plan and got the doc himself. He's fine, but too much into prescribing pills as a solution to all ills. I'm back on the HMO now (I've got to cut costs!) so I'm a second-class citizen again (I get sent out to get my blood checked for cholesterol rather than having it done in-house), but I wouldn't mind seeing the PA again. Many nurses complain about the high pay that PAs get, though. At 08:17 PM 02/27/2001 -0600, you wrote: Yeah, but Physicians Assistants make more, on average, than nurses and can go into practice for themselves. Also, at least for women, PAs often provide better care than MDs -- for ex., PAs are midwives and provide routine gynecological care. I went to a PA for years instead of a gyno, and she pulled me through a couple of problems the gynos couldn't identify. Also, PAs are frequently trained in abortion and can provide services in a doctors office in many places where there are absolutely no other service providers available. maggie coleman Jim Devine wrote: Some nursing jobs have been taken over by Physicians' Assistants, who are basically low-paid MDs. At 12:17 PM 2/26/01 -0800, you wrote: Part time nurses under temporary contracts are doing quite well, although hospitals are downgrading many traditional nursing jobs to have non-professionals take over. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University [EMAIL PROTECTED] Chico, CA 95929 530-898-5321 fax 530-898-5901 Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~JDevine
BLS Daily Report
A grain of salt WRT the last item: hospitals have been deliberately reducing their nursing staffs for years. The reason people are in the hospital in the first place is that they need nursing care. With this reduction in nursing staffs, the future is that the patients will have to hire their own nurses, if they can afford to. Dave - BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, FEBRUARY 26, 2001: Over the course of 2000, nearly all regions posted declines in their unemployment rates as job growth remained relatively strong until late in the year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Northeast experienced the largest drop in its unemployment rate -- as it fell by 0.5 percentage point to an annual average of 3.9 percent in 2000. Nationally, the civilian unemployment rate averaged 4.0 percent last year, down by 0.2 percentage point from the 1999 average (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). In another sign that labor market tightness is likely to ease further, Manpower, Inc. reports that its latest survey shows a drop in hiring plans as employers look toward the second quarter. The Milwaukee-based temporary help company found that 28 percent of the nearly 16,000 companies polled said they plan to hire additional workers in the April-to-June quarter. That is down from 32 percent shown for the same quarter of last year. At the same time, the percentage of firms expecting to cut their payrolls rose slightly -- from 6 percent a year ago to 8 percent projecting reductions for the second quarter of 2001 (Daily Labor Report, page A-2). Reversing a decades long trend, Americans are now retiring later in life, says The New York Times (page A1). Government data show that the percentage of people over 65 who still work has been rising since the mid-1990's. Last year, at 12.8 percent, it was higher than at any time since 1979. Economists and specialists on aging cite forces that include changes in the Social Security system, a ban on most forced retirements and the economy's shift away from back-breaking jobs like those in mining and heavy manufacturing. There have also been advances in medicine, so that even as more elder-friendly jobs in the service sector appear, more people are healthy enough to fill them. But to many workers approaching the end of their careers, the most important factor has been the erosion of pensions, health insurance, and other retirement benefits they had expected. With layoffs on the rise again, many employees are facing an uncomfortable new choice as they walk out the door: agree never to sue their employer or walk away with less money, says Jonathan D. Glater in The New York Times (February 24, page A1). The agreements are perfectly legal. Their use has increased as the threat of employment-related lawsuits has risen, lawyers for corporations say. The number of Federal employment lawsuits has more than doubled over the last 10 years, from 8,413 in 1990 -- 3.9 percent of all Federal civil filings -- to 21,032 last year, or 8.1 percent of the total, according to the Administrative Office of the United States Courts in Washington. The Wall Street Journal feature "Tracking the Economy" (page A6) shows that personal income in January, to be released Thursday, will increase 0.5 percent, according to Thomson Global Forecast. The December personal income figure was up 0.4 percent. Medical costs could be heading a lot higher. A key factor holding down medical-cost inflation in the 1990s was relatively low wage increases for health-care workers. For example, from 1993 to 1998, wages of private hospital workers rose only 2.3 percent annually, less than the 2.4 percent rate of inflation. But shortages of health care workers have become more common in the past 2 years, and medical wages have been accelerating. In particular, private-sector hospital wages are growing faster than overall wages. That's one big reason why health care consultants expect medical costs to jump 12 percent this year, the biggest gain in 10 years. Registered nurses, for example, are in short supply. According to a study released on January 3 by health-care consultants William M. Mercer, 32 percent of the nearly 200 health care providers surveyed said turnover of registered nurses was a "significant" problem (Business Week, February 26, page 24). application/ms-tnef
Re: BLS Daily Report
Part time nurses under temporary contracts are doing quite well, although hospitals are downgrading many traditional nursing jobs to have non-professionals take over. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University [EMAIL PROTECTED] Chico, CA 95929 530-898-5321 fax 530-898-5901
Re: Re: BLS Daily Report
Some nursing jobs have been taken over by Physicians' Assistants, who are basically low-paid MDs. At 12:17 PM 2/26/01 -0800, you wrote: Part time nurses under temporary contracts are doing quite well, although hospitals are downgrading many traditional nursing jobs to have non-professionals take over. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University [EMAIL PROTECTED] Chico, CA 95929 530-898-5321 fax 530-898-5901 Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 23, 2001: RELEASED TODAY: "State and Regional Unemployment, 2000 Annual Averages", indicates that unemployment rates decreased in 33 states and the District of Columbia from 1999 to 2000. Three of the four regions and seven of the nine geographic divisions recorded rate declines in annual average unemployment. The U.S. jobless rate decreased from 4.2 percent to 4.0 percent over the year. Additionally, employment to population ratios increased in a majority of states, with the national ratio increasing to a record high of 64.5 percent. During the fourth quarter of last year, both the number of mass layoff events and the number of persons involved rose sharply compared with a year earlier, according to figures released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics. Despite the upturn at year's end, BLS reported that for all of 2000 the number of extended mass layoffs and the workers affected were lower than in any year since 1995. Layoffs did not begin to mount until toward the end of last year, as the economic slowdown prompted many employers to trim their workforces (Daily Labor Report, page D-4). The index of leading economic indicators rose 0.8 percent in January as the average manufacturing workweek grew longer and the amount of money available to businesses and consumers increased, the Conference Board reports. The increase in January reverses the 0.5 percent decline experienced in December, as six of the seven indicators that had been down in December turned positive in January. A Conference Board economist said although the three consecutive declines in the index met the first test of proving an economic slowdown, the second test -- an annualized decline of at least 3.5 percent over a 6-month time frame -- still has not been met. "With the 0.8 percent rise in January, the overall signal remains one of moderation in the pace of economic activity with no recession looming on the horizon," the economist said. A key factor influencing the increase of the leading index in January was the $38 billion gain in the money supply. Also supporting the increase in the index was a 0.5 hour increase in the average workweek of manufacturing workers to 40.9 hours and a 7.7 percent decline in the average number of weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance to 328,200, the Conference Board said. Consumer confidence, however, weighed on the index as it continued its decline for the sixth consecutive month (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Analysts today largely dismissed a rise in a key gauge of US economic activity last month as a temporary bounce in a troubled economy. The New York-based Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.8 percent, to 109.4, in January, suggesting the economy is steering clear of a recession. But economists said the uptick is probably just a rebound in business activity after a slowdown in November and December prompted in part by bitterly cold weather and two interest rate reductions ( Washington Post, page E4). An important forecasting gauge for the economy rose substantially after three consecutive months of steady decline, indicating that the economy is cooling off rather than tipping into a full-fledged recession. The Conference Board said the index of leading economic indicators edged up 0.8 percent in January, after dropping 0.5 percent the month before (Reuters in The New York Times, page C12). In one encouraging sign for the U.S. economy, the index of leading economic indicators jumped 0.8 percent in January, its first increase in 4 months and its biggest rise in more than 2 years (Greg Ip in The Wall Street Journal, page A2). Initial claims filed with state agencies for unemployment insurance benefits rose by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000 in the week ended February 17, according to the Employment and Training Administration of the Department of Labor. Revised data indicate that new claims for the week ended February 10 stood at 344,000. "Claims are expected to remain high as announced corporate layoffs in December and January set a new 2-month record," a Merrill Lynch economist says (Daily Labor Report, page D-2; The Wall Street Journal, page A9). Lump-sum bonus payment provisions were found in 12 percent of nonconstruction contracts negotiated in 2000, according to an analysis by the Bureau of National Affairs of 735 collective bargaining agreements that together cover more than 908,000 workers. Fifteen percent of agreements analyzed in 1999 and 17 percent in 1998 also included lump-sum provisions. All three years are below the high level of 36 percent tallied in 1988. Construction contracts were excluded because none contained lump-sum pay provisions. Further, holiday, vacation, and other such bonuses were not included in the analysis. The weighted average f
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 2001: RELEASED TODAY: "Consumer Price Index: January 2001": indicates that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in January, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 175.1 (1982-84=100). For the 12-month period ended in January, the CPI-U increased 3.7 percent. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U also increased 0.6 percent in January. This was its largest monthly advance since a 0.6 percent rise in March 2000. The energy index rose 3.9 percent in January, accounting for over one-half of the overall CPI-U increase. The index for energy services rose 7.7 percent, largely as a result of a record monthly increase in the index for utility natural gas -- up 17.4 percent. The index for petroleum-based energy was unchanged in January. The food index increased 0.3 percent, following a 0.5 percent rise in December. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.3 percent in January, following an increase of 0.1 percent in December. A larger increase in shelter costs and an upturn in the price of cigarettes were the principal factors accounting for the acceleration in January. "Real Earnings in January 2001" indicates that real average weekly earnings were unchanged from December to January after seasonal adjustment, according to preliminary data released today by BLS. A 0.6 percent increase in average weekly hours was offset by a 0.6 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Average hourly earnings were unchanged. Each day brings another mass-layoff announcement from a blue-chip company. Yet the unemployment rate has ticked up 0.2 percentage point since December, just a fraction over what the government calls statistically meaningful. Could we be heading toward a paper, not a paycheck recession, where economic growth eases and stock prices swoon, but unemployment remains below its average of 5.6 percent of the past 10 years? Or is unemployment lurking out there in the months ahead, reach to pounce once employers give up hope of a quick turnaround, asks Steve Liesman in The Wall Street Journal (page A2). Economists are debating the point now, and many believe that, unlike the economic recession in 1990-91, when unemployment rose to 7.8 percent from 5.2 percent over a 2-year period, the current economic slowdown will not be marked by a sharp rise in joblessness. Demographics may ultimately help recently unemployed workers land jobs. In the 1970s, the working-age population grew on average 2.2 percent annually, as the baby boomers came of age. In the 1990s, with a much larger economy, the working-age population is growing only 1 percent annually, a 55 percent decline. This means the economy needs to create only about 100,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate stable; that is roughly the job-creation rate now. We are creating enough jobs so that in theory, you wouldn't have much of a decline in the unemployment rate unless the economy contracts, says Phil Rones, assistant commissioner at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The big layoff announcements are not always all they seem to be. Of the 10,000 Lucent layoffs, 3,000 will take place through attrition and 1,000 will be jobs outside the U.S. Companies had been cutting back all through the expansion. About one million people lost their jobs annually through mass layoffs, on average, from 1996 through 1999. Despite the sharp increase in mass layoffs in the last quarter of 2000, the total for the year is unlikely to be as high as that average, says Lewis Siegel, a senior economist at BLS. Many economists and management consultants say layoffs hurt companies more than they help. The evidence is very weak that downsizing boosts productivity (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). Placement experts and job hunters say that in many fields, new jobs are popping up as fast as old ones vanish. One reason: At 4.2 percent, the unemployment rate is still near rock bottom in spite of the slowing economy. Another is the rosy job creation data: In January, there was an unexpected jump of 268,000. "Even with the downturn in the economy, it's a superfueled job market, where demand outstrips supply," says the chief operating officer of a placement agency. Prospects are grimmest for unskilled factory workers, whose jobs continue to fall victim to advances in technology and globalization. In 2000, they were smacked with 35 percent of the nation's mass layoffs involving at least 50 people, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And for them, a new job often means working the cash register at a convenience store (http://ww.usnews.com/usnews/issue/010226/nycu/career.htm) People working part time voluntarily -- that is, those who have chosen reduced hours, rather than being forced into them by lack
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 22, 2001: RELEASED TODAY: "Extended Mass Layoffs in the Fourth Quarter of 2000" indicates that in the fourth quarter of 2000, there were 1,905 mass layoff actions by employers that resulted in the separation of 374,320 workers from their jobs for more than 30 days, according to preliminary figures. Both the total number of layoff events and the number of separations were higher than in October-December 1999. For all of 2000, however, extended mass layoff events, at 5,522, and the number of worker separations, at 1,117,183, were lower than any other year since the program began in the second quarter of 1995. The consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U advanced 0.6 percent in January amid higher prices for natural gas and tobacco products, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The core CPI-U, which excludes the volatile prices for energy and food, rose a slightly higher than expected 0.3 percent. Most of the rise in consumer prices can be attributed to the 17.4 percent increase in prices for natural gas during January, BLS says. For the year ended in January, natural gas prices were up 59.3 percent. The chief economist at Lehman Brothers, New York, says that although the overall increase in the CPI was significant in January, the latest reports show most energy prices falling over the next several months, removing most inflationary concerns. (Daily Labor Report, page D-8). A record surge in residential natural gas prices caused the consumer price index to shoot up 0.6 percent last month, the largest monthly rise since last March, the Labor Department reported yesterday. (John M. Berry, in The Washington Post, page E1). Americans paid sharply higher prices for energy in January, causing inflation at the consumer level to rise at its quickest pace in 10 months, the government reported yesterday (The New York Times, page C1).). The inflation-adjusted weekly earnings of most U.S. workers failed to grow in January, as hourly pay was unchanged over the month, according to figures from the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hours worked by production or nonsupervisory employees on nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.6 percent in January, while average hourly earnings were unchanged between December and January, which resulted in a 0.6 percent rise in average weekly pay. Real earnings estimates are compiled from the agency's monthly survey of about 390,000 nonfarm business establishments. The payroll survey represents about 80 percent of all private industry workers, the bureau said (Daily Labor Report, page D21). The Labor Department said yesterday that the average number of hours Americans spent on the job grew 0.6 percent from December to January, offsetting the price increases and leaving workers' real weekly earnings unchanged.(The New York Times, page C1). Data compiled by the Bureau of National Affairs in the first 8 weeks of 2001 show that the weighted average first-year wage increase in newly negotiated contracts is 3.7 percent, compared with 3.5 percent in 2000. The manufacturing industry weighted average increase also is 3.7 percent, while nonmanufacturing (excluding construction) agreements show a weighted average increase in 3.8 percent (Daily Labor Report, page D-25). The Department of Commerce reports U.S. trade deficit in goods and services ended the year on a positive note, narrowing 0.4 percent in December, but the imbalance for 3000 widened to a record $369.7 billion. Although economists have fretted about the unsustainability of the ever-rising trade deficit, they said the narrowing gap as the year ended reflected the sharp growth deceleration in the world's largest economy (Daily Labor Report, page D-1; John M. Berry in The Washington Post, page E16). The increase in the trade deficit came as imports from China surged, giving the United States a larger trade deficit with China than with Japan for the first time (The New York Times, page C1). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 20, 2001
An expected jump in energy prices was largely responsible for a 1.1 percent
rise in producer prices of finished goods in January, according to figure by
the Bureau of Labor Statistics. January's advance in the finished goods
producer price index was the largest monthly gain since a 1.3 percent jump
in September 1990. Energy prices received by producers climbed 3.8 percent
last month. (Daily Labor Report, page D-9).
The Labor Department said producer prices for finished goods shot up 1.1
percent last month, the biggest jump in a decade and far more than analysts
had expected, as a result of higher costs for food, energy, tobacco products
and new vehicles (John M. Berry in The Washington Post, February 17, page
E1).
The Labor Department said the producer price index, a broad measure of
wholesale inflation, grew 1.1 percent in January, far outpacing economists'
expectations for a 0.2 percent rise ("Credit Markets" feature in The Wall
Street Journal, page C19).
The Wall Street Journal feature "Tracking the Economy" (page A6) says that
the Consumer Price Index for January, to be released tomorrow, will be 0.3
percent, according to the Thomson Global Forecast. The previous month's
actual increase was 0.2. Excluding food and energy, the January CPI is
predicted to be 0.2 percent, in contrast to 0.3 percent for December.
For all the fear that layoff announcements generate, the reality behind each
company's move is often more complicated than a single headline number
suggests, says David Leonhardt in The New York Times (February 19, page 1).
"When a company announces 5,000 layoffs, said Patrick Carey, an economist
who studies job cuts for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, "sometimes 5000
people aren't being laid off." Even in difficult times, many analysts say,
a torrent of layoff announcements can overstate the economy's problems. Over
the last seven years, there has been little apparent relationship between
the number of announced layoffs across corporate America, and the
unemployment rate, a recent study by Lehman Brothers found. But the Lehman
Brothers economist who studied jobcuts says "Bad news about the economy does
influence consumers' spending. It does tend to put a damper on their
willingness to borrow."
According to the Christian Science Monitor, every day seems to bring news of
another company laying off thousands of workers, but the situation is not as
bad as it seems. There are several factors at work here: many companies are
announcing downsizing, but plan to accomplish this over several years and
through attrition; some of the cutbacks are conditional; and while many
firms are letting workers go, others are hiring. The result: Economists who
follow layoffs say the actual numbers so far are not out of the ordinary.
Over the past six years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has found that
the economy averages about 1 million to 1.2 million permanent layoffs (at
least 50 people let go for 30 days or more) per year. So far, there has been
only a minor uptick in the unemployment rate. "I haven't seen any signs of
the bottom dropping out - it's too soon to reach that conclusion," says
Lewis Siegel, senior BLS economist. (The Christian Science Monitor,
http://www.csmonitor.com/durable/2001/02/20/fp1s1-csm.shtml).
John J. Sweeney, president of the AFL-CIO, gave an unusual do-or-die warning
at a meeting of labor leaders in Los Angeles, telling them that unless
unions did far more to increase their ranks, organized labor could drift
into irrelevance. The percentage of American workers belonging to unions
fell to 13.5 percent from 13.9 percent last year. That is the lowest level
since the number of unionized workers peaked at 35 percent in the 1950's.
Even though more than 16 million jobs have been created since 1992, the
Bureau of Labor Statistics found that the number of union members nationwide
has slipped by 200,000 since then, to 16.2 million (The New York Times,
February 19, page A10).
Industrial production fell 0.3 percent in January, marking the fourth
monthly decline in a row, the Federal Reserve says. The drop brought the
industrial production index down to 147.0 percent of its 1992 average, and
was concentrated in the auto sector and utilities. The National Association
of Manufacturers, for its part, said the slowdown in the industrial sector
is beginning to ease (Daily Labor Report, page D-5; The Wall Street Journal
page 1 graph is of industrial production 1998 to the present).
A report by the Pew Internet and American Life Project found that the number
of American adults with Internet access grew by 16 million the last 6 months
of 2000. That brings the total number of adults using the Internet in the
United States to 104 million, or 56 percent of the adult population. Women,
minorities, and people earning $30,000 to $50,000 were among the population
segments of Internet user
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 16, 2000: RELEASED TODAY: "Producer Price Indexes -- January 2001" indicates that the Producer Price Index for Finished Goods advanced 1.1 percent in January, seasonally adjusted. January's rise followed a 0.2 percent increase in December 2000 and a 0.1 percent gain in November 2000. At the earlier stages of process, prices received by producers of intermediate goods increased 0.7 percent, following a 0.4 percent rise in the prior month, and the crude goods index advanced 13.9 percent, after posting an 8.5 percent increase a month earlier. Import prices fell 0.4 percent in January, as oil prices declined sharply for the second consecutive month, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported February 15. The value of all imported commodities slipped to an index level of 99.4 percent of 1995 levels, while the value of all exported commodities climbed 0.2 percent to an index level of 96.6 percent in January (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Import prices fell for a second consecutive month in January as the cost of oil and industrial supplies continued to decline, the government said yesterday. Separate reports showed that industrial activity in the mid-Atlantic region shrank for a third month in February, while initial jobless claims in the last week dropped more than expected. Export prices rose by an unremarkable 0.2 percent in January, after falling 0.1 percent in December. In a separate report, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's business outlook survey underscored weakness in manufacturing, which, along with tame prices, left the door open for more interest rate cuts. Yet the Philadelphia Fed said the outlook for the months ahead had improved. Its index improved to minus 30.5 from minus 36.8 in January (Reuters in The New York Times, page C6). Import prices fell for the second straight month in January, as petroleum prices slipped, suggesting that imports continue to act as a damper on prices in the U.S. In a separate report, the Labor Department said new claims for unemployment benefits declined last week for the first time in 4 weeks. But the drop didn't signify further labor market tightening (Dow Jones Newswires, in The Wall Street Journal, page A2). New claims filed with state agencies for jobless benefits decreased by 11,000 to a total of 352,000, seasonally adjusted, for the week ended February 10, the Employment and Training Administration of the Department of Labor reports. The 4-week moving average of initial UI claims -- the figure that is more closely watched by analysts than the more volatile weekly total -- climbed to 345,000 for the period ended February 10, up 12,000 from the previous week's revised average of 333,000 (Daily Labor Report, page D-3). New claims for state unemployment benefits declined last week for the first time in 4 weeks, but were still in the range indicating that companies' appetite for workers has diminished. It was the first decline since January 13, when claims dropped by 40,000 (The Washington Post, page E2). With the number of union members on the decline, the AFL-CIO Executive Council used its annual winter meeting to focus a great deal on organizing. Last month the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the percentage of workers belonging to unions slipped to 13.5 percent. Mark Splain, the Federation's organizing director, told BNA Feb. 15 that there were "frank discussions" during the meeting because organizing is "off pace." Splain said unions affiliated with the AFL-CIO organized about 350,000 workers in 2000, compared with 600,000 the year before. "The numbers are not where they should be," he added. In August, the executive council announced a plan to recruit 1 million members a year. Splain said there never was an intent to grow to that pace immediately. AFL-CIO President John J. Sweeney said Feb. 12 the federation is targeting an organizing goal of 700,000 this year and 1 million in 2002 (Daily Labor Report, page AA-3). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 2001: RELEASED TODAY: "U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes -- January 2001" indicates that the U.S. Import Price Index decreased 0.4 percent in January. The decline followed a 0.8 percent decrease in the previous month and was largely attributable to a drop in petroleum prices. The Export Price Index gained 0.2 percent in January, after dipping 0.1 percent in December. While labor demand remains strong in many areas, a small decline in the Wage Trend Indicator suggests the weakened U.S. economy might dampen wage pressures later this year, according to the latest WTI figures released by the Bureau of National Affairs. Preliminary figures for the first quarter 2001 show the WTI declined moderately to 100.69, from a revised 100.85 in the fourth quarter. "The WTI is responsive to the weakened condition of the economy, especially in the first quarter, which is widely expected to be the weakest of the year," says economist Joel Popkin, whose firm developed the measure for BNA. "If the economy remains weak, in a couple of quarters we could see this slower growth reflected in wages," he says. The Wage Trend Indicator is designed to predict changes in private industry wages as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Cost Index (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Average monthly cable-television bills climbed 5.8 percent nationwide over the 1-year period ending in July, a boost well above the 3.7 percent rate of inflation recorded for other goods and services during the same period, according to a new Federal Communications Commission survey. The price hikes came during the first full year after Congress ended federal price controls on cable-TV bills on March 31, 1999 (The Washington Post, page E1). After laying off workers, reducing shifts and deeply discounting merchandise, businesses are working off some of their excess inventories. The Commerce Department says inventories of goods on shelves and backlots rose by a tiny 0.1 percent in December, to a seasonally adjusted $1.22 trillion. That matched the increase in sales, which rose to $896.8 billion. The 0.1 percent rise in inventories was the smallest since the same-size increase registered in January 1999 (The Washington Post, page E2). Business inventories rose only a bit in December, as companies slashed production in response to the slowing economy. That news eased some concerns that excess inventories were continuing to grow and could eventually tip the economy into a recession if companies adopted sharper production cuts to bring stocks in line with sales (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). Productivity, the goods and services produced from each hour of work, is the magic elixir of economic progress, says The Wall Street Journal in its "Capital" feature (page A1). Productivity grew at about 2.7 percent a year for the quarter century after World War II. Around 1973, it slowed mysteriously to about 1.5 percent a year, and then perked up around 1995. For the past couple of years, productivity has been growing at better than 3 percent a year. Economists dissecting data agree that something big happened, and that it has to do with information technology. They disagree on details. But will productivity growth hold up? Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, the one economist whose opinions actually count, remains an optimist. One reason, he said this week, is that productivity growth stayed strong when the economy weakened late last year, an unusual and heartening development. Gross domestic product, job growth, productivity: These numbers have a reassuring solidity. But when it comes to economic data, the first pass can be misleading, says Business Week (February 12, page 28). ...The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that private sector employment was up by 240,000 in the 6 months ended in October 1990. ...But these gains evaporated as the data were revised over the next couple of years. It turned out that the BLS had greatly overstated the number of jobs created. In particular, the "bias adjustment factor," which accounted for job growth at new businesses, was far too high. It turned out that the number of jobs actually fell by 240,000 over that 6-month stretch. The most striking change, though, affected productivity data. In the months leading up to the 1990 recession, measured productivity growth appeared to be basically flat. But after a decade of revisions to the data, a completely different productivity picture has been revealed. In fact, productivity dramatically accelerated over the course of the 1990-91 recession as companies chopped jobs. No one knows how much -- or in which direction -- the current numbers will be revised. Yet the lesson is clear: Treating economic statistics as gospel is precisely the wrong thing to do. As a onc
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 14, 2001: Retail sales picked up in January after a sluggish Christmas shopping season, the government said today in a report showing new signs of life in the sagging economy. Total retail sales rose 0.7 percent last month, after gaining an anemic 0.1 percent in December, the Commerce Department reported. Excluding volatile aotomobile sales, retail sales rose 0.8 percent last month after being flat in December (New York Times, page C8). In a modestly upbeat assessment, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that the economy is not in recession and that it improved somewhat in January from the "exceptional weakness" of late last year. He also said healthy economic growth is likely to resume later this year. Nevertheless, Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee there is still a substantial risk the economy could falter if business and consumer confidence, which have declined noticeably, take a true nose dive. The idea of an improvement in the economy was bolstered by a Commerce Department report that retail sales rose an unexpectedly strong 0.7 percent last month. The retail sales gain was the largest since September, and broadly based (John M. Berry, in The Washington Post, page E1). While warning that the economy still faces substantial risks, Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve Chairman, said yesterday that the United States was not in a recession and that the slowdown it was experiencing could prove to be as short as it is sharp (Richard W. Stevenson in The New York Times, page A1). Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan sounded more upbeat about the economy than he did three weeks ago, but that didn't change expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates again in its March 20 policy setting meeting (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). The nursing workforce in the United States is shrinking while the number of patients who will need their services is expected to grow, representatives of the health care industry told members of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee's Subcommittee on Aging. Vacancy rates for registered nurses in hospitals range from 14 to 30 percent, said the president of the American Organization of Nurse Executives (Daily Labor Report, page A2). Recruiting by Internet companies at leading business schools soared last year, but is expected to fall sharply as the industry contracts. This year, students say they are hoping to land jobs in established traditional fields instead of dot-com startups (The New York Times, page C1). The annual pay packages of chief executives continue to soar and now exceed $10 million among the nation's very largest public companies, according to a survey by Pearl Meyer Partners, an executive compensation consultant in New York. Benefiting from a continued abundance of stock options that make up the bulk of their pay, the average compensation for chief executives reached a record $10.9 million in 2000, a 16 percent increase over the previous year (The New York Times, page C2). Despite the widespread belief that Hispanics in the U.S. are "mired in poverty," they are quickly climbing the economic ladder, with more than one million Hispanic households joining the ranks of the middle class during the past 2 decades, according to results of a study made by the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute, a nonprofit think tank in Claremont, California, that conducts policy research on issues affecting U.S. Hispanics. The analysis of the Institute suggests that this upward mobility is often obscured by the fact that the large number of poor immigrants arriving from Latin America -- especially Mexico -- puts a drag on Hispanic income data, contributing to a misleading portrait of the Hispanic community. One of the report's authors says "The kids are doing better than the parents in the labor market." A pivotal reason is education. In fact, annual income for a U.S. born Hispanic man with a college degree reached $60,600 in 1998, only 13 percent less than the level for non-Hispanic whites, according to the study. A Mexican immigrant without a high school diploma, on the other hand, makes less than $19,000 a year on average (The Wall Street Journal, page A4). DUE OUT TOMORROW: U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes, January 2001 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 13, 2001: The unemployment line is becoming a relic of the past, says The Wall Street Journal in its "Work Week" feature (page A1). With an eye on cost savings and ease of use, most states are adopting telephone-based unemployment insurance systems. "It's more efficient," says New York's acting labor commissioner, who says it helps cut fraud as well. Economists are watching those who traditionally suffer early in a downturn and those at-risk workers drawn to the labor market by tight labor and welfare to work. One group being watched is black female workers who saw their unemployment rate rise to 7.3 percent in January, from 5.7 percent in December. The number tends to bounce around, so many economists are waiting for February's results. Still, "It suggests there's a real problem here," says a National Urban League official. Several welfare-to-work groups say they haven't seen job losses, perhaps because these workers are paid less, says the executive director of a Chicago welfare-to-work program. But a person who handles public and private work force development program notes that higher unemployment could mean job losers are looking for work instead of leaving the labor force (The Wall Street Journal in its "Work Week" feature, pageA1). Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will be treading a fine line when he testifies before the Senate Banking Committee today. He must convince rattled consumers the economy is on track while letting Wall Street investors know that the Fed will keep cutting interest rates to boost economic growthGreenspan is trying to avoid crumpling consumer confidence at a time when consumer spending is vital to preventing a recession. Last month, Greenspan danced around the "R" word during Senate testimony, saying instead that economic growth was "close to zero." This time, he's likely to lower the Fed's 3.25% growth forecast for the year. Is the economy in recession? The consensus, so far, is that the economy has dodged such a bullet. Only 5% of forecasters surveyed by the Blue Chip Economic Indicators say the economy is in recession. They see growth at 2.1% this year--the slowest pace since 1991, when the economy shrank 0.2% (USA Today, page 1B). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS Daily Report, Monday, February 12, 2001: The number of work stoppages involving at least 1,000 workers surged from 1999's all-time law of 17 to a 6-year high of 39 strikes or lockouts during 2000, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The 39 work stoppages resulted in 394,000 employees being idled and 20 million workdays being lost, more than 4-times the average number of 4.57 million workdays lost annually during the 1990s. BLS says the jump was almost entirely due to a strike of 135,000 actors working in radio and television commercials (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). How to keep key employees satisfied in the face of a business downturn is an old-economy lesson nearly as important as profitability, and one that high-tech companies have been slow to learn, says Carrie Johnson in an article in The Washington Post (February 11, page L1) on union organizing at Amazon. That company's dismissal in January of 1,300 people in Seattle and at a Georgia distribution center have created problems. Most of the criticism has focused on a separation agreement the company asked its departing customer-service employees to sign. In exchange for 12 weeks of severance pay, a share of a stock trust fund that will mature in 2003, and a $500 bonus for staying on board until May, employees were asked to give up their rights to sue Amazon and to refrain from criticizing the company. Internet and e-commerce companies plan to use salary increases averaging 8.6 percent -- the highest in the technology industry -- and other perks to attract and retain employees this year according to Watson Wyatt Worldwide. New hires receiving bonuses include 34 percent of senior executives, 22 percent management, 22 percent professional/technical, and 6 percent non-exempt. Companies plan to use the following measures measures to attract workers, with 50 percent employing opportunities for bonuses, profit sharing, etc., 50 percent hiring bonuses, 45 percent modified work hours/days, 38 percent telecommuting, 30 percent perks, and 8 percent enriched relocation packages (The Washington Post, page E2). Professional apartment managers find that their rent is low, but the stress is high, says Leta Herman in the "Apartment Living" supplement of The Washington Post (February 10, page 7). She quotes one person in such a job as saying "This job is based 90 percent on attitude and 10 percent on skill." But nowadays property managers have all sorts of certifications to tack onto their names, even a 4-year college degree. The field is female dominated, except at the corporate level, says one property manager. A large number of managers are in the 40 to 60 age bracket, and this may be a second or third career. In larger complexes the jobs break down into a number of areas. The sales or leasing agents show the apartments and rent them. The maintenance and repairs staff (also called service technicians) are responsible for fixing the things that break -- toilets, sinks, heating, and so on. There are many other types of apartment jobs -- guards, groundskeeper, concierge, office clerk and janitor, to name a few. The managers and assistant managers of larger properties supervise all the staff and fill in the blanks. In the smaller buildings, you still need to be a jack of all trades. In smaller properties, you typically work for rent credit. In the mid-range buildings, 40 to 70 units, you'll typically get a full rent credit. Beyond 70 units, you typically get more than full rent credit. For example, with 120 units, you might get free rent plus $1,000 to $1,500 cash (a month), depending on the area and supply and demand. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, property manager salaries vary greatly around the country, from the low $20,000 range up to $55,000 in metropolitan areas such as San Francisco, New York, and Los Angeles. Though economists are expecting this year to be the economy's worst since 1991, only a tiny percentage think the economy is in a recession, a new survey has found. Just 5 percent of forecasters surveyed by Blue Chip Economic Indicators say that the U.S. has slipped into a recession. That is in spite of a consensus forecast of just 2.1 percent growth in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product this year, which would be the slowest since 1991, when the economy shrank 0.2 percent (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). The Wall Street Journal's feature "Tracking the Economy" (page A20) shows the Producer Price Index forecast for January, due out Friday, at+ 0.3 percent, according to the Thomson Global Forecast, in contrast to 0.0 percent for December 2000. The index, excluding food and energy, will be+ 0.1 percent if it matches the forecast, compared to 0.0 percent for December 2000. application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 9, 2001: RELEASED TODAY: "Major Work Stoppages in 2000" indicates that major work stoppage activity rose in 2000 after hitting record lows in 1999. Thirty-nine major work stoppages began during the year, idling 394,000 workers and resulting in 20 million workdays of idleness (about 6 out of every 10,000 available workdays). Comparable figures for 1999 were 17 stoppages, 73,000 workers idled, and 2 million days of idleness. The series, which dates back to 1947, covers strikes and lockouts involving 1,000 workers or more and lasting at least one shift. The number of people filing claims with stage agencies for unemployment insurance benefits rose by 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 361,000 for the week ended February 3, the Labor Department's Employment and Training Administration announces. The report marks the third consecutive weekly increase in UI claims. The 4-week moving average for initial claims was 331,250, an increase of 4,250 from the previous week's revised average of 327,000. Government reports from last week indicated that the nation's unemployment rate climbed to 4.2 percent in January, the highest level in 16 months, highlighted by a loss of 65,000 manufacturing jobs (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). January proved to be a markdown month for most of the nation's retailers after a disappointing holiday season, but while some chains benefited from last month's selling spree, others warned of earnings shortfalls as a result of the discounting. Over all, retail sales in stores open at least a year, a crucial industry measurement, rose 3.4 percent last month, according to the Goldman Sachs retail composite index. They rose just one-tenth of one percent in December (Reuters in The New York Times, page C4). Retailers took a dose of strong medicine in January, slashing prices in order to successfully clear out excess winter inventory after a disappointing holiday shopping season. But while the lower prices will hurt many retailers' fourth-quarter earnings, most merchants now have healthier outlooks for the spring season, having gotten ride of old inventory. This year the traditional January clearance discounts were steeper than ever, analysts said, leading to slightly stronger than expected sales and thus lower than average inventory levels at the end of the month (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). The very technology that is powering the Information Age is also leaving many of its workers with a painful malady: repetitive motion injuries, says USA Today (page B1). Ergonomic injuries are afflicting technology workers as young as 20 to 30 years old, many of whom have been using computers since childhood. Some problems are severe enough to end careers that have barely begun. Blame the problem on the long workweeks typical among those in high-tech, an infatuation with technology so strong that workers often spend their free time online, and a lack of attention by many start-ups to ergonomic issues and training. application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 8, 2001: Reflecting the overall economic slowdown, the pace of productivity growth moderated in the nonfarm business sector to a 2.4 percent annual rate of increase in the fourth quarter of 2000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For all of 2000, nonfarm productivity climbed 4.3 percent -- the strongest performance since 1983. One of the few unfavorable pieces of news in the productivity report was the 6.6 percent rise in compensation per hour in the nonfarm sector during the fourth quarter. Unit labor costs accelerated to a 4.1 percent advance, reflecting the sharp rise in compensation. For all of 2000, the 4.3 percent productivity gain helped to offset the 5.1 percent jump in compensation, resulting in a 0.7 percent rise in unit labor costs (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). "It sometimes takes a slowdown to confirm a gain," writes John M. Berry in The Washington Post (page E1). Usually when U.S. economic growth slows sharply, as it did in the second half of last year, business efficiency also takes a nose dive. Typically, gains in labor productivity -- the amount of goods and services produced for each hour worked -- become very weak or turn into declines. Some analysts expected that to happen this time. But so far, at least, it hasn't. And that lends weight to the growing belief that the U.S. economy has changed in fundamental ways that should enable it to grow on a sustainable basis more rapidly than in decades past. The Labor Department reported yesterday that labor productivity at firms other than farms rose at a 2.4 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, even though the output of goods and services increased at only a 1.2 percent rate. The third-quarter productivity gain was also greater than the increase in output. Despite the slowing economy, American workers increased their productivity at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the last 3 months of 2000, a gain that was higher than expected, the government reported. At the same time, workers' hourly compensation, adjusted for inflation, rose at an annual rate of 3.8 percent, the fastest growth since the first quarter of 1998 (The New York Times, page C16). The U.S. economy continued to make productivity gains last quarter, but at a slower rate consistent with the cooling in overall growth. The Labor Department said nonfarm business productivity rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2000. That is slower than the third-quarter increase of 3 percent, revised downward from an initial estimate of 3.3 percent, and significantly below the 6.3 percent gain reported in the second quarter (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). The U.S. rustbelt is once again feeling the pain of an economic slowdown, says Karen Pierog in a Reuters story with a Chicago dateline, in the Los Angeles Times (February 2). Job layoffs were way up in the Midwest compared to other parts of the country in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The agency reported this week that layoff events that involve at least 50 employees at a single company doubled to 1,079 in the Midwest in December, compared to 531 in December 1999. The number of workers getting the bad news ballooned to 157,486 from 67,805 a year ago. "It's a manufacturing story, mostly," said a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He said that most of the layoffs occurred in the manufacturing sector, which is still highly concentrated in the Midwest. Manufacturing strongholds like Michigan and Ohio, which suffered through past recessions, saw a surge in job losses. Layoffs in Michigan more than quadrupled in December from November, while they more than doubled in Ohio, according to the labor statistics bureau. Illinois and Wisconsin also saw increases in layoffs. The Chicago Fed's economist said a better picture of the Midwest economy will be formed with the release of layoff data for January. He said that data should show if the December increases were a quirk or if a trend is emerging. However, John Challenger, executive vice president of the international outplacement firm Challenger, Gray Christmas, said more job layoffs are looming, spreading from manufacturing to the high technology sector. The Labor Department reported that the number of workers losing their jobs in mass layoffs -- whose in which a company fires 50 or more employees -- rose 54 percent in the fourth quarter of last year compared with a year earlier. In California, more than 154,000 people lost their jobs, a 14 percent hike from the 1999 period. Yet the January employment report showed the nation added 268,000 net jobs last month. The U.S. unemployment rate has stayed low in part because small and mid-size companies continue to hire even as larger companies shed workers, economists say. Also, many recent
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 7, 2001: RELEASED TODAY: BLS reported preliminary productivity data--as measured by output per hour of all persons--for the fourth quarter and for the full year 2000. The seasonally adjusted annual rates of productivity in the fourth quarter and the annual average changes were: Business sector, 3.2 percent for the fourth quarter and 4.3 percent for the annual change, and for the Nonfarm business sector, 2.4 percent for the fourth quarter and 4.3 percent annually. Worker productivity growth in the United States slowed in the fourth quarter while a key measure of labor costs increased, the government reported Wednesday, a further reflection that the U.S. economy has cooled. U.S. productivity, a closely watched gauge that measures how much workers produce per hour, grew at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the final 3 months of 2000, the Labor Department said. That was about in line with Wall Street forecasts of a 2.5 percent increase but below the third quarter's revised 3.0 percent rate of growth. However, unit labor costs, a key gauge of inflationary pressures in the economy, rose at a 4.1 percent annual rate in the quarter, up from a revised 3.2 percent gain in the prior quarter. Analysts polled by Briefing.com had expected labor costs to grow only about 2.8 percent (http://cnnfn.cnn.com/2001/02/07/economy/productivity). Layoff announcements made by U.S.companies rose to 142,208 in January, the highest of any month since 1993, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray Christmas reports. Challenger, based in Northbrook, Ill., said the number of job cut announcements in January represents a 6 percent increase over the December 2000 announcement of 133,713 job cuts and a 181 percent increase from January 2000, when 50,655 job cuts were announced. Although the layoffs were spread broadly throughout several economic sectors, they were most severe in the automotive industry, which announced it would eliminate 35,959 jobs. The telecommunications industry announced the second-largest number of layoffs during January with 22,060. The retail sector, affected by store closings that included J.C. Penney and Sears, announced plans to lay off 15,344 workers, Challenger said. The latest mass layoff report from the Labor Department, which tracks job reductions through the unemployment insurance data system, confirmed that layoffs have risen sharply in recent months. Mass layoff events in December had risen to 2,677 and unemployment insurance claims were filed by 326,743 persons, the most since the agency began collecting the data in 1995 (Daily Labor Report, page A-4). American businesses announced the most job cuts in January for any month since a placement firm started tracking such reports 8 years ago. Businesses announced plans to cut 142,208 jobs last month, up 6.3 percent from the 133,713 cuts announced in December, according to placement firm Challenger, Gray Christmas. Announcements of job cuts are not the same as layoffs because many of the reductions will be made through attrition or early retirement, analysts say. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2 percent in January, the highest in more than a year, the Labor Department reported last week. Businesses also added 268,000 jobs last month, the most since 410,000 in April. Construction accounted for most of the gain (Bloomberg News in The New York Times, page C9). President Bush will present a budget outline to Congress this month, and if he keeps his pledge, he will ask for a 6.8 percent -- $3.1 billion -- military raise by 2002, says Stephen Barr, writing in "The Federal Diary". Under the formula, military raises are calculated at 0.5 percent above the Labor Department's Employment Cost Index, which tracks wage increases across the nation. For 2002, the formula would give the military a 4.6 percent raise. Bush's extra billion translates to an additional 2.2 percent, putting the total raise to 6.8 percent. (Washington Post, page B2). Consumers everywhere but in the South Central states were less upbeat about the economy's prospects in January compared with December, according to a Conference Board survey. The falloff was particularly pronounced in the Great Lakes, Mid Atlantic, and New England states, says Lynn Franco, who oversees the survey asking consumers to look at the economy both now and 6 months out. Even in the Rocky Mountain states, households are still sanguine about the present but increasingly wary of conditions 6 months down the line. Confidence in Pacific states, where the survey was taken as California's energy crisis worsened, fell to a level indicative of a recession 6 months from now. Confidence increased or remained unchanged only in South Central states, which were boosted by their energy industries and new auto factories, says the chief economist of Economy.com (The Wall Street Journal
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 2001 __Widespread layoffs in the manufacturing sector pushed the unemployment rate up to 4.2 percent in January, even as employer payrolls grew by 268,000, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. BLS Commissioner Katharine Abraham said in a briefing that the sharp payroll growth, following a downward revised increase of only 19,000 in December, was mostly attributable to "unusually large seasonally adjusted increases in just two areas -- construction and the federal government." Although the sharp level of payroll growth was mostly due to an anomaly caused by BLS's seasonal adjustments, economists say the report signals a significant decline in the likelihood of a recession. Gordon Richards, an economist at the National Association of Manufacturers, said the increase in jobs was three times larger than what had been expected and should help sustain consumer spending in the first quarter. ... (Brett Ferguson in Daily Labor Report, page D-1; text of Commissioner's statement, page E-1). __The nation's unemployment rate rose to 4.2 percent in January, its highest level in 16 months, as heavy manufacturers continued to lay off thousands of permanent and temporary workers. At the same time, government, hospitals, and building contractors continued to expand their payrolls during the month, providing crucial support to an U.S. economy that many analysts believe has stopped growing. Economists said the January jobs report confirms the emergence of a two-tiered economy in which auto, steel, and appliance manufacturers have sunk deep into recession while the once-booming technology sector runs in place and consumers continue to spend modestly on restaurant meals, travel, and clothes. ... (Steven Pearlstein in Washington Post, Feb. 3, page A1). __Responding to a slowing of the economy, the unemployment rate rose in January to 4.2 percent -- the highest level in 15 months -- as the number of jobs in manufacturing continued to shrink. But the huge service sector, bucking the ebbing tide in American industry, produced enough new jobs to clearly suggest that the overall economy had not tipped into recession. And consumer confidence, which fell sharply in December and early January, appeared to stabilize by the end of the month, according to the latest survey by the University of Michigan's Consumer Research Center. ... BLS said that the number of new jobs it reported for January overstated the strength of the labor market, largely because of unusual weather patterns and a shift in the Postal Service's Christmas hiring. The report showed an increase of 145,000 construction jobs and 54,000 government jobs, but Thomas Nardone, chief of the Division of Labor Force Statistics, said a more realistic number would be closer to 75,000 construction jobs and 9,000 for government. ... (Louis Uchitelle in New York Times, Feb. 3, page A1). __America's extraordinarily low unemployment rate is beginning to feel pressure from the sharp economic slowdown, but not enough to prove the entire economy has followed manufacturing into recession. ... The report was the first comprehensive look at the entire economy for January. Previous reports had found that the industrial sector's decline accelerated during the month, and the payroll report provided further confirmation. ... Katharine Abraham, who heads the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, noted that average payroll growth over the past 4 months has fallen 45 percent to 102,000 from the prior 9 months. . (Greg Ip in Wall Street Journal, page A2). The Wall Street Journal's feature "Tracking the Economy" (page A6) shows that the Thomson Global Forecast for productivity in the fourth quarter of 2000, to be released Wednesday, is predicted to show a rise of 1.5 percent. The actual productivity figure for the previous quarter was 3.8 percent. The fourth quarter increase for unit labor costs is predicted to be 3.5 percent, compared with 2.5 percent in the third quarter. "The Bureau of Labor Statistics ... is one of those places that the good government gurus like to call an 'island of excellence.' In the big bureaucratic sea, BLS sails along at a fast clip, getting the job done and doing it right," writes Stephen Barr in the "Federal Diary" feature of The Washington Post (Feb. 4, page C2). But in at least one regard, BLS is no different than the rest of the government. In the next 5 years, 24 percent of its approximately 2,570 employees will be eligible to retire. Economists make up about half the BLS staff and, as might be expected, have the largest number of retirement eligible (243 people, or 19 percent) of any of the agency's occupational groups. BLS projections also show that nearly 60 percent of senior executives and senior technical staff workers will qualify for retirement by 2005. The top white-collar grades could lose a third (GS-14) to a half (GS-15)
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 2001
The Labor Department estimates that up to 19 million Americans now work on
line from home or some other location outside the office. The typical
"teleworker" is a 34 to 55-year-old male, usually in a high-tech,
engineering, marketing or professional position. They benefit from easier
commutes and greater job satisfaction, says Labor in a recent report.
Employers see increased retention, reduced absenteeism and lower office
overhead. More studies will be conducted for the Labor Department to
promote the practice ("Work Week" feature of The Wall Street Journal, page
1).
The National Association of Purchasing Management says growth in the
nonmanufacturing sector slowed markedly in January, falling to its lowest
level since July 1997. The industries that reported the highest rates of
growth in January were health services, public administration, mining, real
estate, finance and banking, and utilities. The industries with the highest
job growth in January were legal services, insurance, utilities, health
services, and finance and banking. Prices paid by nonmanufacturers for
purchased materials and services increased in January for the 23rd month in
a row, and, at 62 percent, rose at a higher rate than in December at 58
percent. This was the highest rise in one month since last February, but
the prices index remains "well below" the high point of 72 percent reached
in March 2000 (Daily Labor Report, page A7).
A number of middle-income Americans are digging deep to pay for their
housing, according to a graph in The Washington Post (page E2). Households
earning 30-50 percent of the median income that spent more than 50 percent
of their income on housing showed an increase of 1.57 percent between 1997
and 1999. Households that earned 50 to 80 percent of the median income that
spent more than 50 percent of their income on housing showed a 22 percent
increase and households that earned 80-120 percent of the median income and
spent more than 50 percent on housing showed a 74 percent increase between
1997 and 1999. The median income depends upon where one lives. According to
the latest census data, the median income for Washington, D.C. is $59,424 in
1998. The article quotes the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, the
National Housing Conference, and the Department of Housing and Urban
Development.
As if a slowing economy, mounting layoffs and depressed stock markets
weren't enough, middle-income Americans now face another big problem: a
shortage of affordable housing, says The Wall Street Journal (page A2). It
quotes a study by the Mortgage Bankers Association of America and the
National Housing Conference, a nonprofit affordable-housing advocacy
organization based in Washington, D.C. According to the study, the number
of families that make between 80 and 120 percent of their area median income
and suffer from "critical housing needs" rose 74 percent to 691,000 between
1997 and 1999. Families with "critical housing needs" pay more than half
their household income for housing or live in "severely inadequate housing"
as defined by the Department of Housing and Urban Development, meaning they
lack flushable toilets, hot water or other amenities. Of those families,
about 437,000 owned their homes, while about 254,000 were renters; the
problem appears to be growing more quickly for renters, the study said.
Problems in retailing are indicated by The New York Times (page C1), which
reports changes in consumer spending that are bringing about cutbacks and
consolidations. Consumer confidence in the nation's near-term economic
health has plummeted to its lowest point since 1993, the Conference Board
reported last week. Retailing is always among the first to feel the effects
of a consumer pullback in lower sales and profits. Retailers are also being
hurt by their own over-enthusiasm. During the boom of the second half of
the 1990's, retail companies expanded operations at a brisk, some say
suicidal, pace.
Surging natural gas prices in the Western United States are boosting utility
bills by 60 percent or more and forcing some energy-intensive industries to
curtail or even shut down production. But a surprisingly optimistic new
analysis by the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank concludes that the run-up
in prices won't have a significant impact on the region's economic growth
rate. The reason: Expenditures on natural gas account for only 1 percent
of the West's total economic output an the natural gas wholesale market,
deregulated for a decade, has shown itself able to respond to price signals
caused by supply demand imbalances and to bring more supply into the market
(The Wall Street Journal, page A2).
Laid-off workers find a job search no longer a cinch, says The Wall Street
Journal (page B1). Skilled professionals are able to land okay, but for
blue-collar workers jobs are elusive, lower
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 2, 2001: Released Today: "The Employment Situation: January 2001" indicates that unemployment increased in January, and payroll employment rose by 268,000. Construction employment increased by 145,000, after seasonal adjustment, as unusual weather patterns over the last 3 months contributed to extremely high layoffs in January. Manufacturing experienced another sizable employment decline over the month. Average hourly earnings were unchanged. The number of unemployed rose by about 300,000 to nearly 6.0 million, pushing the unemployment rate from 4.0 to 4.2 percent. The number of mass layoffs and the number of workers affected increased sharply in December, according to figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.There were 2,677 mass layoff events during December, resulting in initial unemployment insurance claims filed by 326,743 persons, BLS said. Last December's total was higher than in the prior 4 years, in part because of a calendar effect, the agency said. December 2000 contained 5 weeks that ended during the month, compared with 4 weeks in each of the prior four Decembers (Daily Labor Report, page D-9). __California, birthplace of the high technology boom that helped carry the nation's economy to new heights, is also setting the national standard for layoffs. But the Midwest, bogged down in a manufacturing slowdown, is catching up quickly. These are among the highlights of a report released yesterday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on so-called mass layoffs, where companies terminate 50 or more employees at once, and the employees file for unemployment insurance. The report indicated while mass layoffs started 2000 little changed from a year earlier, layoffs rose 54% for the fourth quarter from a year earlier as a slowing economy prompted big companies to make sharp cuts in their work forces Because BLS measures only mass layoffs, which for the most part involve large companies, the report captures just a subset of the U.S. labor market. But economists say that mass-layoff data are nevertheless a valuable indicator (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). New claims filed with state agencies for unemployment insurance benefits rose a modest 32,000 to a total of 346,000 for the week ended January 27, the Employment and Training Administration says (Daily Labor Report, page D-7 Total personal income rose by a modest 0.4 percent in December, despite a slowdown in the growth of U.S. workers' wages and salaries, the Bureau of Economic Analysis says. The pace of consumer spending stayed the same in December, as it had been in the prior 2 months -- showing a 0.3 percent gain. However, the type of spending was different in December, with outlays rising mainly in utilities where costs have risen sharply this winter (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). The National Association of Purchasing Manager's report on manufacturing activity declares an end to the longst period of economic expansion in the history of the United States. NAPM said data from its survey of 350 purchasing managers across the country showed that the overall economy failed to grow during January for the first time in 117 months. Manufacturing activity also failed to grow for the sixth consecutive month in January as the purchasing managers index fell 3.1 percentage points to 41.2 percent, NAPM said. The chairman of NAPM's Business Survey Committee said a PMI in excess of 42.7 percent over a perod of time generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy, while a PMI in excess of 50 percent generally indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector During January alone, several major companies have announced cutbacks adding up to more than 80,000 job eliminations Purchasing managers also reported a noticeable acceleration in prices, NAPM said (Daily Labor Report, page A-1). Fresh evidence emerged yesterday that continuing weakness in the manufacturing sector may have finally brought an end to the record-long expansion of the U.S. economy. For the sixth month running, factory production continued to shrink in January, even as inventory continued to build up in warehouses and the pace of new orders declined, the National Association of Purchasing Management reported. The Labor Department reported that initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by 32,000, to 345,000, last week, an increase in a series known to fluctuate widely from week to week. On a somewhat brighter note the Commerce Department reported construction activity grew 0.6 percent in December, largely on the basis of modest increases in building of new schools and office buildings. Construction of new homes increased 1.1 percent, while home renovations declined 3.0 percent. Finally, the government reported that spending on autos and other high-ticket items fell 1.9 percent in December, despite a 0.4 percent increase in after-
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2001 RELEASED TODAY: In December 2000, there were 2,677 mass layoff actions by employers as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single establishment; the number of workers involved totaled 326,743. The number of layoff events and initial claims for unemployment insurance were the highest for the month of December since the series began in 1995; part of the increase was due to a calendar effect, since December 2000 contained 5 weeks that ended in the month compared with 4 weeks in each of the prior four Decembers. The total of layoff events for all of 2000, at 15,738, and the total number of initial claimants, at 1,835,592, were higher than in 1999 (14,909 and 1,572,399, respectively). The Federal Reserve Board cuts short-term interest rate targets another 50 basis points, and economists say another half point reduction is likely by mid-March if not before (Daily Labor Report, page A-8; The Washington Post, page 1; The New York Times, page 1; The Wall Street Journal, page 1). Real gross domestic product growth decelerated to 1.4 percent for the fourth quarter of 2000, reaching its slowest rate of growth since the second quarter of 1995, the Commerce Department reports. Analysts had been expecting the GDP to grow about 2 percent, but sharper than expected cutbacks in capital spending weakened the overall growth. For all of 2000, real GDP grew by 5.0 percent. As economists try to gauge the severity of the economic slowdown, many of them are counting on productivity gains, which have been robust since 1995, to continue playing a critical role in holding down inflation. If much of the recent productivity gain is liked to business spending on information technology, as a recent Federal Reserve study suggests, the outlook for technology investment is key to prospects for productivity this year. The most recent productivity figures compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that labor productivity -- output per hour worked -- rose 3.3 percent in the third quarter 2000 after jumping 6.1 percent in the second quarter. Despite the fact that hourly compensation accelerated to a 6.3 percent rise in the third quarter, the productivity gain kept unit labor costs to a 2.9 percent advance. Fourth quarter productivity data are scheduled for release February 7 (Daily Labor Report, pages D-1; D-10; The New York Times, page 1). The United States economy grew at its slowest rate in more than 5 years during the final quarter of 2000, as businesses abruptly cut their spending on new equipment, the government said yesterday. The Commerce Department's quarterly report depicted the $10.1 trillion United States economy verging on a slowdown or a recession. Growth remained faster than it had been in the first half of 1995, when the country avoided a recession and the economy than entered one of the best 5-year periods in history. But over the final 3 months of 2000, personal consumption was the only part of the private sector that expanded, and in the early weeks of this year consumer confidence has plummeted, according to two major surveys (The New York Times, page C1). Sales of new homes actually rose 13.4 percent in December, more than reversing a drop during the previous month, the Commerce Department reports (The New York Times, page C6; The Wall Street Journal, page A8). The Purchasing Management Association of Chicago says that manufacturing activity in the Chicago area had fallen this month to its lowest level in 18 years (The New York Times, page C6). The American economy has hit a snag, no doubt about it, but that has not deterred the nation's most influential economic forecaster, the Congressional Budget Office, from issuing a much more promising projection of the economy over the next decade than it had offered in the past. "The dip in the economy is expected to be short-lived," Barry R. Anderson, deputy director of the budget office, told Congress today. At the same time, Anderson said, the office's professional forecasters believe the economy will grow faster over the next 10 years than they had previously thought because they now expect greater growth in worker productivity and business investment. The forecast was that the economy would grow 2.4 percent in this calendar year and that lower interest rates would cause it to rebound to 3.4 percent next year. Then the growth rate is expected to level off at an average of 3.1 percent through 2011. That average is three-tenths of a percentage point higher than the long-range average expected just last July. The budget office has been making 10-year forecasts only since 1992, so their accuracy cannot be assessed. Productivity is a measurement of the efficiency of workers. From 1974 until the mid-1990's, productivity grew an aver
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, JANUARY 30, 2001 In 1995, the Bureau of Labor Statistics predicted that 5 of the 10 fastest growing occupations over the coming decade -- including 2 of the top 3 -- would be in health care. The bureau recently revised those projections for the years 1998 to 2008, and health care has dropped out of the top five. Now every one of the five fastest growing jobs will be computer related, the bureau says, from computer engineers (No. 1) to desktop publishing specialists (No. 5). Mike Pilot, an economist in the bureau's Office of Employment Projections, says the explosive growth of the Internet, which was barely a blip on the employment radar screen back in the mid-90s, was a significant factor in reshaping the top 10. Part of the change has to do with the increasing number of computer-related job classifications, another consequence of the growth of the industry. For example, computer support specialists and database administrators, No. 2 and No. 4, respectively, were not tracked separately in 1994. Health care will remain a growth industry. Retail service occupations like sales clerks and cashiers, already among the largest job categories, will also grow strongly. ... Included with the article is a half page of tables showing the fastest growing occupations, those gaining the most workers, those declining the fastest, those losing the most workers. The fastest growing occupations, by states, are also shown. (Dylan Loeb McClain in New York Times, page E9). Total private average weekly hours worked in December, at 34.1, was the lowest since January 1996, according to seasonally adjusted data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (The Wall Street Journal's "Work Week" column, page 1). First came falling stock prices. Then a dramatic slowdown in business profits and investment. And now come the layoffs, says Steven Pearlstein in The Washington Post (page A1). Yesterday it was two more blue-chip US manufacturers: payroll reductions of 26,000 at DaimlerChrysler and 4,000 at Xerox. That followed last week's announcement of thousands more from Lucent, WorldCom, Sara Lee, J.C. Penney, and the new AOL Time Warner. General Motors, Ford, Aetna, Motorola, Gillette, Gateway, and Chase Manhattan have also announced cuts. Even General Electric Co., long considered the world's best-managed company, warned last month that it could eliminate as many as 60,000 positions this year as it closes down its long-troubled Montgomery Ward stores, completes its merger with Honeywell, and adjusts to the slowing economy. ... Economists warn that the numbers should be viewed in context. In most instances, much of the reductions are spread over months and even years and handled through early retirements and attrition. And even laid-off workers are apt to receive continuing income support or severance payments. Furthermore, in an economy of 135 million workers where 275,000 Americans each week lose their jobs involuntarily, even a couple of months of 150,000 layoffs will add only 0.2 percentage points to an unemployment rate that still hovers around its lowest point in a generation. ... Overall, forecasters now predict that, as a result of layoffs, hiring freezes, and a slowdown in hiring, the unemployment rate will hit 4.5 percent or 5 percent by the end of this year, up from the current 4 percent. In statistical terms, that would still be relatively low by historical standards. In human terms, that would mean 500,000 to 1 million more Americans without jobs. Internet firms announced plans to lay off a record 12,828 workers in January, as more dot-com businesses are under pressure to improve performance, according to a report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray Christmas. Internet technology-related firms say they plan to cut 3,132 jobs in January, and firms providing professional services to Internet firms say they would cut 2,652 jobs during the month. Challenger said that although many of the first Internet firms to report job cuts were retailing firms, recent data suggest that businesses designed to build and maintain the technological elements of the Internet also are beginning to feel the effects of the slowdown. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-2). Economic growth has ground nearly to a halt, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said last week. The 2000 holiday shopping season was the weakest in a decade. Announcements of layoffs reached their highest level last month in at least 7 years, according to Challenger, Gray Christmas, a job placement firm in Chicago. Amid all the grimness, the December unemployment rate sat at 4 percent, only a tenth of a percentage point above its lowest level in 30 years. For now, while the jobless rate holds steady, the workweek is shrinking more quickly than it did at the start of the 1990-91 recession. ... In part, the apparent contradiction reflects nothing more than timing. The low unemployment rate gives a picture of where t
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 31, 2001 RELEASED TODAY: "Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment: December 2000" indicates that in December, 215 metropolitan areas recorded unemployment rates below the U.S. average (3.7 percent, not seasonally adjusted), while 106 areas registered higher rates. Forty-three metropolitan areas had rates below 2.0 percent, with 14 of these located in New England, 13 in the Midwest, 11 in the South, and 5 in the West. Of the nine metropolitan areas with jobless rates over 10.0 percent, seven were in West Coast states and two were along the Mexican border in other states. Consumer confidence dropped 14.2 points -- its sharpest decline since January 1991 -- to a 4-year low of 114.4 in January as anxiety about the near-term outlook for the labor market grew, the Conference Board reports. Its index measuring consumer confidence about present economic conditions slipped 5.6 percentage points to 170.5, but its index measuring expectations for the next 6 months plummeted nearly 20 percentage points to 77.0 (Daily Labor Report, page A-2). Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan made it clear last week that he is seriously concerned that the U.S. economy could slide into a recession if consumers react badly to reports of weak stock prices, manufacturing cutbacks and layoffs. But yesterday the Conference Board reported that its widely watched index of consumer confidence plunged to 114.4 this month -- its lowest level in more than 4 years -- from 128.6 in December. It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline (The Washington Post, page E1). As the Federal Reserve opened a 2-day meeting yesterday to set interest rates, a closely watched consumer survey reported that people's confidence in the nation's economic health had taken its biggest single-month plunge since late 1990, when the last recession was under way. Americans remain relatively upbeat about current business and employment conditions, but their expectations for the next 6 months have dropped to the lowest point since 1993. Since May, those expectations have fallen from near their all-time high to a level far below average, according to the Conference Board, a business research concern in New York that conducts the survey. The gap between people's attitude about the current climate and their expectations for the future is now wider than it has ever been in the 34 years of the poll. Economists blamed the dismal outlook among consumers on the steep drop in the stock market late last year and a recent wave of layoff plans announced by major corporations even though the unemployment rate remains at a three-decade low (The New York Times, page A1). A plunge in consumer confidence has cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates half a percentage point today, and sparked hopes by some it might even go further. When Mr. Greenspan testified last week, he emphasized the important of consumer confidence in determining whether the economic slowdown will become a recession (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). While the year-over-year growth rate for the nation's manufacturing wages fell only slightly in December, compared with a month earlier, the slowdown in the Great Lakes was much sharper. Some of that five-state region's industries, including chemicals and auto making, are in "full retreat with recession-like conditions," says Mark Zandi, chief economist for Economy.com, a West Chester, Pa., economic-consulting firm. The woes of these industries and others, including apparel, helped reduce wage gains in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. In the Southwest, weak demand for semiconductors gets the blame; the industry accounts for one out of five manufacturing jobs in Arizona. The strong wage gains in the Rocky Mountain and Great Plains states reflected in part weak year-earlier wages when Asia-led global economic ills socked the areas. Those regions, as well as New England and the Far West, probably will see smaller gains later this year, partly because their tech-sector manufacturers are struggling. (Wall Street Journal, page B16). Some enterprising employees exchange the cubicle life for pools in exotic places, says The Wall Street Journal.. In the United States last year, an estimated 24 million people regularly or occasionally telecommuted, according to the International Telework Association and Council, a Washington, D.C. nonprofit group that promotes telecommuting. This is up 21 percent from the year before. In Europe, estimates have the figure at about 10 million for the past 2 years. And in 16 Asia-Pacific countries, at least 3.3 million workers telecommute at least one day a month, up 27 percent from a year earlier, according to consultants at Jala International, Inc., in Los Angeles (The Wall Street Journal, page B1). Low-wage workers are twice as likely to become unemployed as higher-wage workers, but are only half as likely to be eligible to receiv
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, JANUARY 29, 2001 During the economic boom times of the 1990s, the private service-producing sector accounted for 90 percent of all job growth and boosted its share of total employment to about 80 percent, according to an analysis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. At the same time that service industries -- especially those related to high-tech fields -- prospered, the manufacturing sector continued its employment decline. ... "Rapid technological transformation helped prolong the longest economic expansion on record and helped create a substantial number of employment opportunities in services," BLS economists Julie Hatch and Angela Clinton wrote in the December issue of BLS's Monthly Labor Review. Payroll employment outside of agriculture expanded by nearly 21 million workers or by 19.4 percent during the 1990s, BLS data show. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A8; reprint, page E-1). The Wall Street Journal's feature "Tracking the Economy" (page A10) shows the Thomson Global Forecast as predicting that the unemployment rate for January, to be released Friday, as 4.1 percent, in comparison with the December figure of 4.0 percent. Orders for durable goods rose 2.2 percent in December, boosted by a 14.6 percent surge in orders for airplanes and other transportation products. But orders for industrial machinery and metal products were down, as were shipments (Washington Post, Jan. 27, page E2; New York Times, Jan. 27, page B2)_As the Federal Reserve prepares for this week's meeting of its interest rate setting committee, the latest durable goods report offers a sobering reminder of the doleful state of the nation's manufacturing sector. A surge of commercial jet orders pulled overall durable goods orders up last month, but that disguised a much broader decline. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). For an economy struggling with a drop in factory orders, sagging consumer confidence, high energy prices, and a tattered stock market, the climate is adding another hurdle: an extra-cold winter nationwide. Unusually cold weather and winter storms halt construction, keep workers and shoppers at home rather than at their jobs or in stores, and disrupt shipping of goods. In numerous ways, the weather affects consumption and production -- in other words, both halves of the economy. Housing starts, for example, were up a slender 0.3 percent in December, compared with December 1999, despite the fact that last month's mortgage rates were nearly a full percentage point lower. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). Two arms of the National Academy of Sciences -- the National Research Council and the Institute of Medicine -- found that, when teenagers work more than 20 hours a week, it often leads to lower grades, higher alcohol use, and too little time with their parents and families. Influenced by such studies, lawmakers in Connecticut, Massachusetts, Alabama, and other states have pushed in recent years to tighten laws regulating how many hours teenagers can work and how late they can work. ... A newly released study by the Department of Labor shows that 58 percent of American 16-year-olds hold jobs sometime during the school year, not including informal work like baby-sitting, while another study shows that on-third of high-school juniors work 20 or more hours each week. ... A new study by the International Labor Organization showed that American teenagers work far more than teenagers in most other countries. ... (New York Times, page A1). Contracting grows in popularity as an option for out-of-work techies, says The Washington Post (Jan. 28, page L1). "I have not seen any evidence that it's harder for a contractor to get work now than before," says the author of "The Contract Employee's Handbook," described as an idiosyncratic guide to project work. "Now they're being picked up by companies with more conservative business plans." Supporters say contracting provides the freedom to work at home, or at least to change your environment every few months -- a welcome switch for techies who are easily bored or leery of office politics. It also gives a person exposure to different technologies and management styles. ... Plus, for workers with top-line skills, billing by the hour can be more lucrative than a regular full-time job, according to a salary survey released last year by Dice.com, a Web site that tracks technology pay and posts full-time and contract jobs. But, those who have taken the leap warn that freelancing has its own faults. It seems to work best for people with a commend of the newest programming languages and a tolerance for long hours. ... application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, JANUARY 26, 2001 __Compensation costs of private industry employers moderated somewhat in the fourth quarter of last year, but total pay rose 4.4 percent for all of 2000-- more than it has since 1991--according to BLS. Analysts were pleased with the slight easing of pay pressures at the end of last year, as the employment cost index showed a 0.7 percent increase for private industry employers. That increase was down from a 1.0 percent advance in the third quarter. However, the trend over the course of last year was one of acceleration, a development that prompted some economists to suggest that the Federal Reserve may find itself constrained as it tries to support a weakened economy by lowering interest rates further. ... (Pam Ginsbach in Daily Labor Report, page D-1). __Wage and benefit costs remained contained in the last quarter, good news for inflation watchers. Meanwhile, a jump in unemployment claims in California could portend weakness in the country's largest state. The employment cost index for the fourth quarter of 2000 rose 0.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. That was down from a 0.9 percent increase in the third quarter and below consensus expectations of a 1.1 percent rise. It marked the third-straight deceleration in the ECI, a broad survey of labor costs that measures wages and benefits, since it jumped 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2000. Overall, Americans' wages and benefits grew by 4.1 percent for the year, the biggest increase since a 4.3 percent rise in 1991. Inflation rose more slowly, meaning workers saw real gains in compensation relative to the cost of living. ... (Nicholas Kulish in Wall Street Journal, page A2). The wages and benefits of United States workers rose solidly in the fourth quarter, wrapping up a year that posted the biggest annual gain in compensation costs since 1991. The employment cost index, a closely watched gauge of inflation, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.8 percent in the last three months of 2000, down from a 0.9 percent rise in the third quarter. That reflected a job market that cooled late in the year from a red-hot pace. ... (AP story in New York Times, page C4). Labor Department tells Congress the best means of improving the gathering of federal prevailing wage and benefit data for construction workers under the Davis-Bacon Act is to apply new technologies and processes to the existing survey program rather than rely on BLS data as the primary basis for wage determinations. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-12). Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits filed with state agencies increased by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 316,000 in the week ended Jan. 20, the Labor Department's Employment and Training Administration announced. The four-week moving average decreased 13,750 from the previous week's revised average. Economic analysts use the four-week moving average as a more accurate measure because it smoothes out data subject to weekly fluctuations. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-15). The U.S. housing market, which helped buoy a sagging economy earlier this winter, took it on the chin in December as home sales tumbled. Sales of existing homes fell 7.4 percent in December, 5.3 percent below the pace in December 1999. ... For the full year, home sales were down 3.2 percent from 1999, which was a record year for home sales. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). The Conference Board reports that the volume of help-wanted advertising in major newspapers grew in five out of nine U.S. regions, boosting the help-wanted advertising index 4 points in December. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-3). Temporary employment is gaining momentum in all regions and industries across California, according to the first in a three-part series of reports by California's Center on Policy initiatives. ... The number of temporary jobs more than doubled from 1991 to 1998, from 156,000 jobs to 334,000 jobs, while the total number of permanent jobs in the same region climbed by only 10 percent, according to the study. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-9). A survey conducted by Watson Wyatt Worldwide, the Washington Business Group on Health, and the Healthcare Financial Management Association predicts a 10.3 percent increase in employers' health care costs and a 14.6 percent rise in prescription drug costs in 2001. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-13). Senate Majority Leader Lott will bring the nomination of Elaine Chao as secretary of labor before the full Senate on Jan. 30. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-13). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, JANUARY 25, 2001 RELEASED TODAY: The Employment Cost Index (not seasonally adjusted) for December 2000 was 150.6 (June 1989=100), an increase of 4.1 percent from December 1999. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) measures changes in compensation costs, which include wages, salaries, and employer costs for employee benefits. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the 3-month increase in compensation costs for civilian workers was 0.8 percent during the September-December 2000 period, following a gain of 0.9 percent in June-September 2000. ... Reflecting the overall economic slowdown, personal income grew by 1.3 percent in the third quarter after rising by 1.7 percent in the first half of 2000, according to new figures by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. Slower job growth contributes to the more modest income gain. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). While many recent government reports and private surveys show a slowdown, top bank economists predict that the U.S. economy will avoid recession this year, according to forecasts presented by the American Bankers Association's economic advisory committee. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-8). Signals are mixed on spending; open wallets may block recession. ... Never mind that corporate profits are falling or that high-tech stock options are under water, that business investment has been slashed and the output of the nation's factories is now declining. After some hesitation late last year, American consumers are showing signs of spending again, providing a crucial last line of defense against economic recession. ... At this point, most analysts acknowledge it's simply not possible to predict whether the economy is heading toward recession. The leading economists on Wall Street say the likelihood of a mild recession this year is somewhere between 40 percent and 50 percent -- which is nothing more than equivocation dressed in statistical clothing. ... (Washington Post, page A1). With one-third of the world's work force unemployed or underemployed, at least 500 million new jobs will be needed over the next 10 years to accommodate new arrivals in the job market and help reduce global unemployment by half, the International Labor Office, headquarters of the International Labor Organization, a United Nations affiliate, says in a report. It points out that sweeping advances in information technology and communications offer the most promising solution for creating work. Still, its World Employment Report 2001 warns that "the global employment situation remains deeply flawed" because inequalities in access to technology and education are leaving many developing countries behind the industrialized world. ... (New York Times, page A13). The number of nannies in the United States has gone up 25 percent in 5 years, to more than a million, according to estimates by the International Nanny Association, a 16-year-old group. But there's still a nanny gap. The result is fierce competition among moms who want on-call care -- and are willing to pay top dollar -- and a demanding new work force. ... (New York Times, page D1). From talk show hosts to Wall Street traders, many Americans believe that Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman, almost single-handedly controls the U.S. economy. But the roots of stable expansion date to 1984, says Virginia Postrel, editor at large of Reason Magazine, in "Economic Scene" (New York Times, page C2). ... As companies have incorporated new technologies that have given them greater control over production and inventories, volatility in the economy has moderated, says an article in the December issue of The American Economic Review by two economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and one from the European Central Bank. ... (A nontechnical article is at www.ny.frb.org/rmaghome/curr_iss/ci5-13.html) application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 24, 2001 Responding to growing interest in various stock plans offered as employee benefits, the Bureau of Labor Statistics incorporates questions on the incidence of stock options into its annual benefits survey, as it continues exploring options for measuring the cost of such plans to employers, Bureau of Labor Statistics economist William Wiatrowski says. The agency plans further research into how it can collect cost information from employers on stock options as a follow-up to last fall's report on the prevalence of such plans. ... "After a method for calculating the cost of a stock option is determined, BLS must ascertain that such data will be available from employers and that the data can be updated periodically," Wiatrowski writes in an article published in the agency's Compensation and Working Conditions. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-6; reprint of article, page E-1). After the slowest holiday shopping season in a decade, Americans seem to have cautiously reopened their wallets in the early weeks of 2001, spending more than either executives or analysts had predicted. ... Despite the slights of improvement, there is little doubt that spending has slowed since the middle of last year. January sales, of course, are now exceeding goals that were sharply lowered in the final months of 2000, as energy costs rose, most stocks fell, and the economy soared. But the raft of mildly encouraging consumer data suggests the economy has not entered a free fall. The numbers also add weight to the argument -- still being made by a majority of economists -- that the United States is more likely than not to avoid a recession this year. Corporate profits may decline and investment spending flatten out, but a tight labor market and falling interest rates should keep consumers flush enough to extend the decade-long expansion, these economists say. ... (New York Times, page C1). Henry Solano, most recently solicitor of labor, is acting as head of the Labor Department, apparently until such time as the Senate confirms President Bush's choice for the post. Elaine Chao, the labor secretary-designee, goes before the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee Jan. 24 for her confirmation hearing. Chao, a former chief executive officer of United Way of America and wife of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), is expected to be confirmed. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-1). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Employment Cost Index -- December 2000 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, JANUARY 22, 2001 __Overall union membership fell last year, says the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but unions gained among black female workers. Their union membership rose to 15.4 percent from 14.4 percent in 1999 (Wall Street Journal's "Work Week" feature, page A1). __The percentage of American workers belonging to unions fell last year to 13.5 percent, its lowest point in 6 decades. In releasing its survey of union membership last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also found that the number of union members declined by 200,000 last year to 16.3 million, a discouraging development for the labor movement at a time it is straining to reverse the decline. Economists offered several explanations for the decline, including retirements by union members, layoffs of many unionized workers because of foreign competition, and the failure of unions to organize enough additional members to offset such losses. ... (New York Times, Jan. 21, page 18). Payroll employment, contends economist Ed Hyman of ISI Group, investment advisers, is probably a lot weaker than reported. That's because BLS adds a "plug factor" -- an estimate of those hired by new businesses that aren't yet in its data base, to the job numbers derived from its survey of employers. Since this estimate is based on past history (in this case, the hefty final readings for last year), it tends to exaggerate job gains when the economy enters a slowdown. To buttress his claim, Hyman points out that employment based on the Labor Department's other survey, its canvass of households, has hardly changed since April, while unemployment insurance claims have surged higher. The plug factor has added an average 162,000 jobs to the monthly payroll count since April, converting what would have been an average decline of 70,000 in private sector jobs into an average reported monthly gain of 92,000. By comparison, private sector payrolls over-the-prior 8 months posted an average monthly increase of 238,000. ... (Business Week, Jan. 22, page 30). Softening confidence in the economy and the resulting weakness in demand for manufactured goods led the index of leading economic indicators down about 0.6 percent in December, according to a report by the Conference Board. While the decline may be misconstrued as evidence of a sharp downturn in the economy, a Conference Board economist said much of the slide was the result of a reconfiguring of the index to place greater emphasis on the month-to-month changes. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1)_The index of leading economic indicators fell for a third consecutive month in December, indicating that further interest rate cuts may come in the near future. The December report also reflects annual benchmark revisions going back to 1959. ... (New York Times, page C13)_Although the rule of thumb is that three consecutive declines in the index of leading indicators signal the economy is sinking into a recession, the Conference Board said the numbers remained above the level that indicates the economy is contracting. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A9). Only 15 percent of 645 employers surveyed plan job cuts this year, compared with 14 percent in a similar survey last year, says consulting firm William M. Mercer Inc., New York. Plans for pay increases also are similar to last year's, the survey shows (Wall Street Journal, "Work Week" column, page A1). Small employers are losing their ability to attract and retain employees coming from large businesses because of the instability of the stock market and pressure from higher energy and health benefits costs, according to a report by Challenger, Gray Christmas. Many dot-com firms are now struggling to stay in business and employees who received stock options are now finding them worthless, Challenger said. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-5). Employers concerned about an economic downturn are starting to take away the perks long showered on workers, says USA Today (page 4B). Say goodbye to signing bonuses, office back rubs, and free gourmet lunches. Some perks are expected to remain around as long as the labor market stays tight, but the cutbacks that have arrived are a marked shift from the profligate spending of just a few months ago. Finding enough substitute teachers to fill classrooms has become a daily struggle for many school administrators. Some school districts are raising pay for substitutes -- which can often be as low as $50 a day -- and lowering the requirements. Substitutes can have as little as 30 hours of any type of college credit. Even then, some districts regularly resort to breaking apart classes and jamming students in with others that do have teachers. Some districts are using office staff to baby-sit classrooms, which would have been unthinkable a few years ago . "Teacher absenteeism is rising and the substitute pool is shrinking, so this is very much a crisis,&q
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, JANUARY 22, 2001 Regional and state unemployment rates were steady in December with all four regions reporting little or no change and 43 states recording changes of less than 0.3 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-8). The Wall Street Journal's graph "Tracking the Economy" forecasts that the Employment Cost Index for the Fourth Quarter, to be released Thursday, will be up 1.1 percent, according to the Thomson Global Forecast. The previous quarter's increase was 0.9 percent. The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services narrowed 1.7 percent in November, as imports declined more than exports, the Commerce Department says. This was the second month in a row that the deficit posted an improvement. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1)_The U.S. trade deficit declined in November for a second consecutive month. Imports of oil, cars, and computers fell. The 2- month decline was the longest since May through July 1997. Many economists are predicting a slow improvement in the trade deficit in 2001, as weaker U.S. economic growth translates into falling demand for imported goods. There is also hope that foreign economic growth will pick up and boost U.S. exports and that the price of oil, a big part of the import bill, will stabilize. ... (Washington Post, Jan. 20, page E1; New York Times, Jan. 20, page B3)_The U.S. trade deficit shrank in November, reflecting a slowdown in the economy and offering further proof that U.S. consumer demand is cooling off. Indeed, consumer demand is slowing globally. U.S. imports had the biggest decline in a decade. But exports, for the third month in a row, slowed as well, indicating activity overseas is drying up. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). A plunge in consumer confidence not only leads shoppers to be more cautious, but also signals manufacturers to slow their assembly lines. Ford Motor Co. last month said it would scale back first-quarter North American production to 1.05 million vehicles from the initial estimate of 1.16 million. Even the more optimistic first projection was down from the 1.27 million cars and trucks produced in the first quarter last year. A precipitous drop in the University of Michigan's consumer-sentiment index in mid-December "moved us from the edge of the radar screen to the bull's eye," said Ford's U.S. sales analyst manager. On Friday, the Michigan index dropped again, to a preliminary January reading of 93.6 from 98.4 in December. The decline exceeded market expectations and marks the index's lowest level since the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98. In the past 2 months, the index has fallen 14 points, the sharpest 2-month decline since the last recession. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A4). Gasoline consumption in the United States fell about 1 percent last year, the first decline since 1991 and a rare phenomenon during an economic expansion, the American Petroleum Institute said. The institute, the oil industry's main trade association, also said that demand for all oil products was about the same in 2000 as in 1999, also unusual during boom times. Demand for jet fuel and truck fuel rose, offsetting the decline in gasoline. The decline in gasoline consumption apparently resulted from less driving, because the number of vehicles continued to increase. ... (New York Times, Jan. 20, page B1). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, JANUARY 19, 2001 RELEASED TODAY: Regional and state unemployment rates were stable in December. All four regions registered little or no change over the month, and 43 states recorded shifts of 0.3 percentage point or less. The national jobless rate was unchanged at 4.0 percent. Nonfarm employment increased in 32 states and the District of Columbia. ... __The total number of union members declined slightly in 2000, and their share of the workforce slipped to 13.5 percent, according to figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Total union membership declined by 219,000 to 16.3 million last year, a relatively small decline following a fairly small increase in 1999. The share of wage and salary workers age 16 and over who belong to unions declined from 13.9 percent in 1999 to 13.5 percent in 2000. ... Focusing on the longer-term pattern, the AFL-CIO says the latest BLS figures show that "economic shifts in 2000 reduced the net 3-year gain in union membership to 150,000." ... By its own count, the federation says that at least 400,000 workers joined unions last year. ... Weakness in the traditionally unionized manufacturing sector, where BLS figures showed a loss of 180,000 jobs last year, was part of the reason for declining union membership, the federation said. ... (Pam Ginsbach in Daily Labor Report, page D-16). __Capping off a rough year for the nation's labor movement, the percentage of the total work force belonging to a union plunged to a record low in 2000, as the number of union members also slid. Union membership fell to 13.5 percent of the work force last year, the lowest level since data collection began in 1983. The rate had held steady n the two previous years. The labor movement continues to do far better in the public sector, where layoffs are difficult to impose, than in the private sector, which is starting to feel the sting of slower economic growth. ... Traditional union strongholds, such as manufacturing and transportation, have been shedding jobs for years, and organized labor has had relatively little success securing footholds among high-tech or temporary workers, two of the fastest growing sectors of the labor force. Both trends have been exacerbated by the slowing economy, which has hammered areas where unions are strongest. The manufacturing sector, for instance, shed 194,000 jobs in 2000, while the apparel-making and auto sectors cut 45,000 positions each. ... (Yochi J. Dreazen in Wall Street Journal, page A2). The median weekly earnings of most U.S. full-time wage and salary earners climbed by 3.0 percent during 2000 without adjustment for inflation, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures. But the gain was not enough to keep up with inflation. BLS said in real, or inflation-adjusted terms, weekly pay declined by 0.4 percent between the fourth quarters of 1999 and 2000. Consumer prices rose by 3.4 percent during the 12-month period, the largest annual advance since 1990. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-3). Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits filed with state agencies decreased by 37,000 to a seasonally adjusted 306,000 in the week ended Jan. 13, the Employment and Training Administration of the Department of Labor reports. The 4-week moving average was 350,000, a decrease of 12,250 claims from the previous week's revised average. Economic analysts use the 4-week moving average as a more accurate measure because it smoothes out data subject to weekly fluctuations. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Housing starts edged ahead unexpectedly 0.3 percent in December, buoyed by an increase in single family construction, but building starts and permits were down for the year, the Department of Commerce announced. Analysts had expected unseasonably cold weather, as well as snow and ice storms, to drive housing starts down 3.5 percent in December. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-12)_Residential construction edged up in December, with a surge in new single-family home projects, but, for all of 2000, housing starts reached their lowest level since 1997. ... Analysts had been expecting a 3.3 percent decline in housing starts in December. Building permits fell 6.6 percent in December, attributed in part to the cold weather over much of the nation. ... (New York Times, page C5)_Housing starts edged higher last month, but falling applications for building permits suggested a quieter future. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). For the past several months, America's homes have provided more than just shelter from the winter storms; they have provided shelter from an economic downturn, too. Now economists are wondering if it is all going to change. In most business cycles, the housing market is one of the first segments of the economy to crash when business activity slows. Although home sales did fall last year -- economists estimate sales of new and pre-existing homes reached 5.9 mil
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, JANUARY 18, 2001 RELEASED TODAY: UNION MEMBERS IN 2000 -- The share of wage and salary workers who are union members averaged 13.5 percent in 2000 as compared with 13.9 percent in 1999. The number of union members, 16.3 million, also fell slightly from its 1999 level. The union membership rate has fallen from 20.1 percent in 1983, the first year for which comparable data are available. Some highlights from the 2000 data are: Nearly 4 in 10 government workers were union members, compared with less than 1 in 10 private sector employees; protective service workers, a group that includes police officers and fire fighters, had the highest unionization rate -- 39.4 percent; and blacks were more likely than either whites or Hispanics to be union members. ... USUAL WEEKLY EARNINGS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS; FOURTH QUARTER 2000 -- Median weekly earnings of the nation's 99.8 million full-time wage and salary workers were $585 in the fourth quarter of 2000. This was 3.0 percent higher than a year earlier, compared with a gain of 3.4 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers. Data on usual earnings are collected as part of the Current Population Survey, a nationwide sample survey of households in which respondents are asked, among other things, how much each wage and salary worker usually earns. ... Prices paid for all urban consumers for goods and services rose 0.2 percent in December and were up a seasonally adjusted 3.4 percent for the year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Although the 3.4 percent rise in the CPI is the largest year-over-year increase since 1990, economists say most of the increase resulted from the 14.2 percent rise in energy prices during 2000. Excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, the CPI-U was up 0.1 percent for the month and 2.6 percent for the year. Economists say the "tame" inflation numbers may clear the way for the Federal Reserve Board's Federal Open Market Committee to lower interest rates by another 50 basis points to stimulate the economy. ... (Brett Ferguson in Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Average weekly earnings adjusted for inflation fell 0.4 percent in December as the number of hours worked declined for a second consecutive month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. BLS says the average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers fell 0.6 percent in December after declining 0.3 percent the previous month. Analysts attributed part of the decline to winter storms during the survey week, making the number of hours appear to decline more sharply than they actually did. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-18). Slower economic growth in most parts of the country prompts businesses to look cautiously toward the future, but so far labor demand and related pay pressures remain strong, the Federal Reserve reports in its latest "beige book," or summary of economic activities. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-27). Data released by the Federal Reserve show industrial production fell 0.6 percent in December, following 2 months of smaller declines as manufacturing output fell sharply. December's weakness was preceded by decreases of 0.3 percent in November and October. That meant output contracted at an annual rate of 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter, which the Fed said was the first negative reading since 1991, when the economy was in recession. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-22). __Underscoring the recent weakness in the U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve reported that the nation's industrial production fell, the first quarterly drop since the beginning of 1991, when the economy was in a recession. ... The central bank also released the results of its latest survey of nationwide economic conditions that found that if a recession -- an outright decline in national economic activity -- is on the way, it hasn't yet arrived. ... "Price pressures for consumer goods were subdued, while prices for most manufactured goods were flat to down, despite higher input costs" such as for energy, the summary said. "Extensive discounting by retailers during the holiday shopping season helped constrain consumer prices in most districts." The findings on prices were confirmed in a Labor Department report that showed consumer prices increased 0.2 percent last month. That meant the CPI rose 3.4 percent last year, the biggest increase in a decade. ... Recently, however, the overall CPI has been rising less rapidly. In the final 3 months of last year, the CPI increased at a more moderate 2.1 percent pace. The core portion of the index rose at a 2 percent rate in the fourth quarter. This relatively low amount of inflationary pressure in the economy has left the door open for the Fed to cut rates in response to the sharp slowdown in economic growth. ... (John M. Berry in Washington Post, page E7). __A sharp drop in industrial output in December provided str
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 17, 2001 RELEASED TODAY: CPI -- The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent in December, the same as in each of the preceding 2 months. The food index advanced 0.5 percent in December, following no change in November and a 0.1 percent increase in October. The energy index rose 0.2 percent in December, following increases of 0.1 and 0.2 percent in November and October, respectively. In December, the index for petroleum-based energy declined 1.4 percent, while the index for energy services advanced 1.8 percent. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.1 percent in December after advancing 0.3 percent in November and 0.2 percent in October. A sharp downturn in the tobacco index and a smaller increase in shelter costs were responsible for the smaller advance in December than in November. ... REAL EARNINGS -- Real average weekly earnings declined by 0.4 percent from November to December, after seasonal adjustment, according to preliminary data. A 0.6 percent decrease in average weekly hours and a 0.2 percent increase in the CPI-W were partially offset by a 0.4 percent increase in average hourly earnings. ... From December 1999 to December 2000, real average weekly earnings fell by 0.4 percent. ... Inventories of unsold goods at U.S. companies piled up in November as sales fell for the second straight month, adding to mounting evidence of a slumping economy. The Commerce Department reported that stockpiles of goods on shelves and backlots nationwide rose 0.5 percent in November. Sales dropped 0.3 percent. ... (Washington Post, page E2)_Unsold products continued to stack up at the nation's manufacturers and retailers in November and could further weigh down the U.S. economy. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Union Members in 2000 Usual Weekly Earnings of Wage and Salary Workers: Fourth Quarter 2000 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, JANUARY 17, 2001 The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods was unchanged in December from the prior month as higher prices for consumer goods and capital equipment were offset by lower energy prices, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3 percent in December on rising prices for cars, light trucks, and civilian aircraft. ... A senior economist at Merrill Lynch in New York said he found the core PPI's growth surprising, but he expects producers to begin discounting more items as the economy continues to slow, possibly bringing the core PPI back down. The core PPI's growth rate has remained in a narrow range throughout 2000, varying between a low of a 0.2 percent decline and a high of 0.3 percent gain. ... (Brett Ferguson in Daily Labor Report, page D-4). A surprise uptick in auto dealership sales helped retail sales inch ahead 0.1 percent in December, but sales in October and November were revised down, the Commerce Department reports. ... A spokesman for Economic Analysis Associates Inc. in Greenwich, Conn., attributed the surprise growth in auto sales to a problem with seasonal adjustment factors. Christmas falling on a Monday gave shoppers two extra days in the malls and on the streets. But then there were several down days because of severe winter weather in the Northeast. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-14)_Retail sales are likely to continue their slump for the first 6 months of 2001, analysts and industry leaders predicted at the National Retail Federation's annual convention in New York. The chief economist for the retail federation predicts that the economy and consumer spending will start to pick up by the second half of the year, saying the Fed's interest rate cuts will eventually spark consumer spending (Washington Post, page E2). __Retail sales increased a mere 0.1 percent last month, the Commerce Department reported, a weak performance but nevertheless an indication that consumer spending hasn't collapsed, analysts said. "Slowing job growth, higher energy prices and declining equity values are taking a toll on consumers, says a Merrill Lynch Co. economist in New York. ... Meanwhile, BLS said producer prices for finished goods were unchanged last month after rising 0.1 percent in November. ... (John M. Berry in Washington Post, Jan. 13, page E1). __Retail sales, while clearly weak, defied gloomy expectations and rose slightly in December, ending a week in which economic data showed some surprising resilience. The retail numbers -- combined with other reports on inflation, mortgage applications, and unemployment claims -- have decreased the chances that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by another half-point at its next meeting, scheduled for January 30-31. ... The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that the prices that dealers pay for cars and light trucks rose last month. The overall Producer Price Index -- which measures the cost that manufacturers charge for their goods -- was flat last month and finished the year up 3.5 percent, largely because of rising energy costs. The core index -- which excludes the volatile energy and food sectors -- rose 0.3 percent in December, causing some alarm among economists that inflation remains a threat and that the Fed will be reluctant to cut rates. But for all of 2000, the core index grew just 1.2 percent, only slightly faster than in 1999 and about half its pace in 1998. "One month doesn't make a trend," said Brian Catron, an economist at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the index. ... (David Leonhardt in New York Times, Jan. 13, page B1). __The old year went out with a whimper for retailers, and the slump in the overall economy may persist well into the new one. ... The upward creep in sales at the end of a lackluster holiday season hardly dispelled fears of a sharp slowdown in economic growth. ... The report on wholesale prices was largely positive, though it held a bit of a surprise. While the producer price index was unchanged in December from November, the important core rate -- which excludes the volatile food and energy categories -- rose 0.3 percent last month, its biggest jump since May. ... (Nicholas Kulish in Wall Street Journal, Jan. 15, page A2). Based largely on strong labor demand in many industries, the Wage Trend Indicator reversed direction in the fourth quarter to show renewed pressures on wages at least through the middle of this year, according to the latest figures released by BNA. ... The index declined slightly in the third quarter of last year from the prior quarter, only to reverse direction in the final quarter. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). The vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, Roger W. Ferguson Jr., said today that the central bank's surprise decision last week to cut interest rates sharply was not based on any nonpublic information about econom
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, JANUARY 11, 2001 RELEASED TODAY: The U.S. Import Price Index decreased 0.5 percent in December. The decline followed a 0.1 percent increase in the previous month and reflected a downturn for imported petroleum prices. The Export Price Index dipped 0.1 percent in December, after posting no change in November. ... Expanding the use of telecommuting could improve productivity, which would increase employers' competitiveness while helping workers balance the demands of work and family, the Labor Department says in its new report, "Telework: The New Workplace of the 21st Century." This is a compilation of 12 studies prepared by researchers on the future of telecommuting. ... The Labor Department (ASP) estimates there are between 13 and 19 million full- or part-time employees in the United States who work from home or some other location outside of their employer's place of business. ... Although the research is far from definitive, several studies evaluating the impact of teleworking are promising, according to the report. In one study, researchers concluded that employees who telework save their employers up to $10,000 a year in reduced absenteeism and retention costs. ... Telework programs can also lower overhead expenses for companies by reducing office space needs. ... Human resources managers reported in a survey that the main obstacles to teleworking are the lack of supervision of employees, the absence of upper management support, and concerns about communicating with employees, the report says. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-1). Inventories at wholesalers grew in November as unsold autos, paper goods, and computer parts accumulated on docks and in warehouses. Wholesale stockpiles rose 0.4 percent, matching the October increase, the Commerce Department reported. Sales were unchanged after a 0.1 percent decline in October. Slower consumer demand, which is causing inventories to grow and leading to sluggish manufacturing, signals that the economy's expansion is limping toward its 10th anniversary in April. ... (New York Times, page C4). The President's Task Force on Employment of Adults with Disabilities presents the third annual report documenting the administration's activities in promoting the employment of adults with disabilities over the past year and offering recommendations for the future. ... The report, "Re-Charting the Course: Turning Points," can be found on the DOL Web site (Daily Labor Report, page A-8). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Producer Price Indexes -- December 2000 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, JANUARY 12, 2000: Today's News Release: "Producer Price Indexes -- December 2000" indicates that the Producer Price Index for Finished Goods showed no change in December, seasonally adjusted. This followed a 0.1 percent increase in November and a 0.4 percent advance in October. The index for finished goods other than foods and energy rose 0.3 percent in December, after showing no change in the previous month. Prices received by producers of intermediate goods gained 0.2 percent, following a similar decline in the prior month. The crude goods index jumped 8.7 percent, after posting a 2.0 percent decrease in November. President-elect Bush taps Elaine Chao, a fellow at the Heritage Foundation and the former head of United Way of America, as his second nominee for secretary of labor. Bush's first pick, Linda Chavez, withdrew her name from consideration because of reports that she housed an illegal immigrant. Bush says his priorities for the Department of Labor would be job training and prevention of disabilities discrimination in the workplace. Chao promises to uphold those principles, advocating "a strong and productive workforce in which everyone can participate, where jobs and opportunities are available for those leaving welfare, where job training is available for those left behind in our new economy (Daily Labor Report, page AA-1, AA2). __Elaine L. Chao, a veteran of President-elect Bush's father's administration, is the wife of Senator Mitch McConnell (R-Ky). She is an Asian American who emigrated from Taiwan at the age of 8 and went on to head the Peace Corps (The Washington Post, page 1; The New York Times, page 1; USA Today, page 1). Prices for imported goods slipped 0.5 percent in December despite pressure from sharply higher prices for nonpetroleum imports, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Led by a 40.6 percent rise in natural gas prices during December, values for nonpetroleum imports grew 0.9 percent, their largest monthly gain since the series began in January 1989, the agency said (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). New claims for unemployment benefits filed with state agencies plunged 36,000 to a seasonally adjusted 345,000 for the week ending January 6, according to the Employment and Training Administration. The 4-week moving average of initial unemployment insurance claims -- a measure closely watched by analysts because it is less volatile than the weekly numbers -- was 363,000, an increase of 6,250 from the previous week's revised average of 356.750,.ETA said. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate, which indicates the percentage of people covered by the unemployment insurance law who are receiving benefits, was unchanged during the week ending December 30 at 2.0 percent. A year ago the insured unemployment rate was 1.7percent and the 4-week moving average of initial UI claims was 293,750 (Daily Labor Report, page D-3; The Washington Post, page A2).. The Clinton Administration, in the last economic forecast, says the U.S. record expansion will continue with annual growth in the 3.2 percent to 2.p percent range, but allows that the short-term outlook is weaker than 2 months ago. In the "Economic Report of the President," scheduled for release January 12, the Council of Economic Advisers forecast that real gross domestic product grew 4.1 percent in 2000, and will slow to 3.2 percent in 2001, measured from fourth quarter to fourth quarter. Since then, signs of a sharp deceleration in growth prompted the Federal Reserve to cut short-term interest rates half a percentage point from January 3 and analysts look for similar easing later this month (Daily Labor Report, page A-8). __President Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers has become a full-fledged adherent to the concept that there's a new economy. In the Clinton CEA's final economic report, released last night, the council said innovations, technological advances and high levels of investment allowed major gains in U.S. economic efficiency in the second half of 1999. Labor productivity, the amount of goods and services produced for each hour worked, accelerated by 1.6 percentage points since 1995, the report said. Faster technological change in computers accounted for only 0.2 percentage points of that increase. Increased business investment in new plants and equipment boosted the amount of capital per worker and that was responsible for another 0.4 percentage points (The Washington Post, page E-3). __Martin N. Baily, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, says "We don't think we're going into a recession," according to Richard W. Stevenson in The New York Times (page C1). Baily said the economy was slowing more than the administration had anticipated when it decided on the forecasts contained in the "Economic Report of the President for 2001,"
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 10, 2001 The number of mass layoffs surged to 1,697 events in November, doubling the number of events in October and reaching its highest level in 10 months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says. Although BLS advises against month-to-month comparisons because the data are not seasonally adjusted, the number of layoff events was the highest for the month of November since the series began in 1995, while the number for October was that month's lowest since 1995. The mass layoff events, which affect 50 or more workers from a single establishment regardless of the duration of the layoffs, resulted in 216,514 initial claims for unemployment insurance, BLS said. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). First-year wage and benefit increases negotiated in construction industry collective bargaining agreements during 2000 averaged $1.19 per hour, or 4.1 percent, according to data compiled by the Construction Labor Research Council. Second-year increases in new multiyear agreements averaged $1.28, or 4.0 percent. The 2000 increases were slightly above the $1.14 per hour or 3.8 percent reported by CLRC for 1999. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-3). A closely watched monthly poll of economists showed the sharpest 2-month markdown in expectations for economic growth since the last recession. The consensus of forecasters surveyed by the Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter called for growth in the GDP of 2.6 percent this year. Polled last week, the economists cut back their growth estimates by 0.5 percentage point, following a reduction of 0.8 percentage point in their December forecasts. The last time the consensus fell that quickly was between July and September of 1990, the start of the last period of economic contraction in this country. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). Investment in information technology -- hardware, software, and communications equipment -- would have to dry up or contract to push productivity growth back down to pre-1995 levels, a Federal Reserve economist says. In an updated presentation of a working paper released in May 2000, Fed Senior Economist Daniel E. Sichel also told the Center for Strategic and International Studies that he is "cautiously optimistic" that most of the steep productivity gains logged in the late 1990s will be permanent. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-7). For the first time in years, the dreaded word "recession" is back as a buzzword. Oddly, though, it will be months, even years, before economists know for sure if the U.S. has entered one, partly because the definition is fluid. The most common definition of recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. ... Greg Mankiw, a Harvard University economist, defines a recession more generally as "a period of declining real incomes and rising unemployment." In some cases, he says, two quarters may be too much. "If you had a big enough fall in one quarter, you'd probably call that a recession, too," he says. For professional economists, the ultimate arbiter of economic peaks and troughs is the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee. "Basically, a recession is whatever they want to call a recession," says Mankiw. ... The NBER definition is "a recurring period of decline in total output, income, employment, and trade, usually lasting from six months to a year, and marked by widespread contractions in many sectors of the economy." In simpler terms, they refer to it as the three Ds: depth, duration, and dispersion. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). The last time the Federal Reserve was forced to cut interest rates in a hurry -- in October 1998 -- it was to protect the United States from a fast-spreading currency crisis in Russia, after more than a year of economic turmoil in Asia. It was called the "contagion effect," and the strategy was to stop it before it infected a booming American economy that had become the predominant force for growth around the world. Little more than 2 years later, there is now fear of a different kind of contagion effect, this one radiating from the United States. ... For nearly 7 years, the United States has so dominated the world economy that other nations have come to depend, more than ever, on constantly rising demand from the United States for products of all kinds. ... An accompanying table shows the percent of all exports from eight countries that come to the United States. Mexico sends 84.3 percent of all that it exports to the U.S.; China sends 28.5 percent; South Korea, 22.1 percent; Brazil, 21.2 percent; Thailand, 20.6 percent; Hong Kong 18.4 percent; Chile, 17.2 percent; and Indonesia, 15.0 percent. ... (New York Times, Jan. 7, page A1). Seven years after its enactment, the Family and Medical Leave Act has proved to be a growing administrative burden for employers, but, at the same time, it has
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, JANUARY 8, 2001 __The year 2000 ended with a modest payroll expansion of 105,000 nonfarm jobs, making the annual employment gain the smallest of any year since 1992, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Only half of the jobs added in December came in the private sector, indicating a slowdown that worries some analysts. ... The economic slowdown was clearly visible in the fourth-quarter employment figures. Private sector payrolls grew by an average of 84,000 a month during the October-to-December period, only about half the pace of expansion during the first 9 months of 2000, BLS Commissioner Abraham told reporters. For all of 2000, nonfarm payrolls added 1 million fewer than the 2.8 million created in 1999. ... (Pam Ginsbach and Susan McInerney in Daily Labor Report, page D-1; Commissioner's statement, page E-1). __U.S. job growth slowed sharply in December, underscoring the rapid deterioration of the economy and helping send stock prices into a nose-dive. Private-sector firms generated only 49,000 new jobs in December, an anemic performance for an economy that only last spring was generating 200,000 to 300,000 new positions a month. The number of hours worked by the average employee continued to fall sharply in December, largely as a result of reduced overtime for production workers in the hard-hit manufacturing sector. What hasn't changed much is the official unemployment rate, which remained at 4 percent during December, close to the lowest rate in a generation. But analysts were quick to warn that the unemployment rate tends to lag behind other economic indicators and had not yet captured the swift and sharp decline of the economy over the past 2 months. ... (Steven Pearlstein in Washington Post, Jan. 6, page A1). __The sharply slowing economy still has not done much to weaken the tightest labor market in 30 years. Even as manufacturing companies cut both jobs and workers' hours last month, companies in the much larger service sector continued to add to their record-high payrolls, allowing the unemployment rate to hold steady in December at 4 percent. But the pace of job creation clearly slowed in the spring of 2000 and remains much more sluggish than it was earlier in the year and during much of the latter half of the 1990s. And the job market could deteriorate further in the months ahead. ... Apparel, automobile, and metal-making companies all cut payrolls sharply last month, as did temporary-help firms, which are typically among the first to react to an economic slowdown as companies shed part-time workers. Manufacturing employment fell by 62,000 in December, raising the total loss for the year to 178,000. Even the once red-hot service sector is no longer expanding at the pace it had been. Across the private sector, companies added only about 4,000 jobs a day during the last 9 months of 2000, half the pace during the previous year. ... (David Leonhardt in New York Times, page B1). __The U.S. economy continues to weaken markedly, yet workers still are having a relatively easy time finding and keeping jobs. That paradox is contained in the latest batch of government data. The Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate held steady at 4 percent in December from November, just a notch above the lowest level recorded in 3 decades. That tightness remains even though employers slashed overtime for workers and created just 105,000 jobs last month, barely half the pace of job creation recorded during the first 9 months of the year. The employment report was the latest showing growth slowing, and some economists say the figures suggest the U.S. economy actually stalled or contracted during the month. Unless business activity rebounds soon, many analysts say it is only a matter of time before the jobless rate rises sharply. Yet for now, at least, tight labor markets remain remarkably resilient, as employers scarred by years of difficult hiring seem eager to hoard workers. While layoffs are rising, many workers who lose their jobs don't seem to be having trouble finding new ones. ... (Nicholas Kulish in Wall Street Journal, page A2). The engine behind the powerful economic advances of the past decade -- higher productivity growth -- is likely to remain intact in coming years, according to a forthcoming White House study and a welter of the nation's top economists. There has been general agreement among economists that the productivity growth rate has been running about 1.6 percentage points higher during the past 5 years compared with the years 1973-95. There is little doubt that technology is somehow responsible for it all. Yet an intense debate has been raging on how technology has improved productivity, whether the gains are confined to just technology manufacturers or have spilled over into the wider economy, and, most important, whether they will endure in the wake of a steep downturn on the stock market and signs of a rapid economic
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, JANUARY 9, 2001
RELEASED TODAY: In November 2000, there were 1,697 mass layoff actions by
employers as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits
during the month. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single
establishment, and the number of workers involved totaled 216,514. The
number of layoff events and initial claims for unemployment insurance were
the highest for the month of November since the series began in 1995. From
January through November 2000, the total number of layoff events (13,061)
was slightly lower than in January-November 1999, while the total number of
initial claims (1,508,849) was higher. ...
Martin Luther King Jr. Day (Jan. 15) will be observed as a paid holiday by
about one in four employers in 2001, according to a Bureau of National
Affairs survey of 366 organizations nationwide. Roughly one-fourth of
responding establishments (27 percent) report plans to grant all or most
workers a paid day off on the third Monday in January this year, little
changed from 2000 (23 percent) and 1999 (25 percent). Bank employees and
workers in the nonprofit sectors are the most likely to receive a paid
holiday Jan. 15. ... Manufacturing companies, retail establishments, and
health care organizations remain among the least likely to grant a paid
holiday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-3).
This week a fixture of the old economy, the labor movement, will take a
small but significant step into the new economy as the first unionization
vote is held at a dot-com. While unionization efforts move slowly forward
at high technology giants like Microsoft and Amazon.com, 13 customer service
representatives at etown.com, a Web site that provides information on
consumer electronics, are on a fast unionization track, scheduled to vote
Friday on whether to join the Communications Workers of America. At Amazon,
the unionization push has gained some momentum in recent months as a result
of a new economy complaint: Many workers say their hourly pay is too low
now that their stock options are underwater. ... (New York Times, page
C4)_The CWA filed new charges against etown.com, effectively postponing
a vote on union representation at the company. ... (Washington Post, page
E2).
Managers oversee an average of 10.75 employees, according to 1999 data from
about 970 companies compiled by Saratoga Institute Inc., a Santa Clara,
Calif., research and consulting firm ("Work Life" feature of Wall Street
Journal, page A1).
A Federal Reserve official tried to quell speculation that the
long-expanding economy is screeching toward a recession, even as private
sector economists warned of the current downturn's severity. In a speech
before the Atlanta Rotary Club, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President
Jack Guynn became the first high-ranking official of the central bank to
publicly comment on its surprise cut in interest rates last week. "The U.S.
economy remains the envy of the world, and everything that brought us here
remains," said Guynn, in a generally upbeat presentation, citing
simultaneously low inflation and low unemployment. But talk of a
contracting national economy continued to spread. ... (Wall Street Journal,
page A2; Washington Post, page E2)_A recession has already begun in the
United States, and there is a 45 percent chance that deterioration in the
world's largest economy will lead to a global recession in 2001, two
economists at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter said in a message to clients.
Chief Economist Stephen Roach and Chief U.S. Economist Richard Berner said
U.S. gross domestic product will contract by an annualized 1.25 percent in
the first half of this year. For all of 2001, the U.S. economy will grow
just 1.1 percent, they predict (Washington Post, page E2).
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BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, FRIDAY, JANUARY 5, 2001 RELEASED TODAY: Employment rose modestly in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.0 percent. Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 105,000, as gains in government and other service-producing industries more than offset large declines in manufacturing and help supply services. Over the last 3 months of 2000, total payroll employment gains averaged 77,000 compared with an average monthly gain of 187,000 during the first 9 months of the year and 229,000 a month for all of 1999. Average hourly earnings increased by 5 cents in December. ... New claims filed with state agencies for unemployment insurance benefits climbed by 16,000 to a total of 375,000 during the week ended Dec. 30, according to a report by the Employment and Training Administration of the Department of Labor. The latest level of initial UI claims was the highest in more than 2 years and coincides with recent public announcements of layoffs in several industries. ... Analysts expect the UI claims figures to continue their gradual increase in coming weeks as the economy stays in a slower growth mode. ETA said the 4-week moving average of initial UI claims rose by 5,250 to 352,250. Economists look more closely at the 4-week average because it smoothes the more volatile weekly totals. A year earlier, the 4-week average was 283,000. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1; Washington Post, page E2). American companies announced 133,713 job cuts in December, more than triple the number in November, according to a survey made by Challenger, Gray Christmas. It was the highest number of job cut announcements recorded since the survey began in 1993, and it was only the fourth time that the number of job cuts totaled more than 100,000 in one month. In another sign of weakness in the labor market, the number of Americans filing for new unemployment benefits climbed to its highest level in 2-1/2 years last week. ... In a third report, orders for new goods from factories rebounded more strongly than expected in November, led by big gains in orders for aircraft, electrical equipment, and costly durable goods. Factory orders rose 1.7 percent in November after falling 4 percent in October. The November increase was the biggest gain since a 2 percent rise in August and topped analysts' estimates for a 1.3 percent rise. But economists zeroed in on the buildup in inventories. Manufacturers' inventories rose 0.5 percent in November, after posting a 0.7 percent gain in October. Analysts said the inventory number showed that companies' stockpiles had continued to expand as the economy -- and consumer demand -- slowed. ... (New York Times, page C5). Nonmanufacturing business activity slowed in December, blunted by smaller gains in employment, new orders, and inventories, according to the National Association of Purchasing Management. It reports that its nonmanufacturing business index tumbled from 58.5 in November to 53.0 in December, a reflection of the nation's slowing economic growth. Another report showed that inventory levels advanced at U.S. manufacturers in November, although orders increased as well. While the advance in orders suggests an eventual rebound in capital investment, the ongoing rise in inventory levels portends weak first-quarter growth as firms draw down existing stocks to meet demand, economists say. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-2; Washington Post, page E2). Data compiled by the Bureau of National Affairs show deferred wage increases payable in 2001 under current collective bargaining agreements produce a weighted average wage increase of 3 percent. By industry, the highest weighted average increase deferred to 2001 -- 4.5 percent -- is found in construction, followed by 3.7 percent in subways-buses-taxis. The highest median increase deferred to 2001 is found in construction with a 4.5 percent gain, followed by airlines with a 3.5 percent rise. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A1). After hoping in the 11th hour that tardy and postseason shoppers would give them a final lift, the nation's merchants released the tally of December sales and had to admit that they had a spectacularly unmerry holiday season. Consumers snapped up scooters and calf-hugging leather boots, but otherwise were impervious to everything -- even at deeply discounted prices. Retail sales at stores open at least a year rose one-tenth of 1 percent in the 5 weeks that ended the last week of December compared with the same period in 1999, according to the Goldman Sachs Index of Retail Sales. That result was the most anemic since March of 1995, when sales declined 0.1 percent compared with the month a year earlier. ... (New York Times, page C1)_After finally unwrapping holiday sales figures, most retailers didn't find what they were hoping for. Chains across the country reported that winter storms and slower consumer spending pushed December sales below already lowered
Shutdown daily report
Sales slump idles 12 GM plants Production cuts affect 25,000; more shutdowns expected in February Cutting back The 12 plants GM will idle later this month: Car plants Orion Township, Mich., Wilmington, Del., Kansas City, Kan., Ste. Therese, Quebec, Oshawa; Ontario; Oklahoma City, and Lordstown, Ohio. Truck plants Moraine, Ohio, Doraville, Ga., Shreveport, La., Linden, N.J., and Wentzville, Mo. Source: General Motors Corp. By Joe Miller / The Detroit News DETROIT -- General Motors Corp. will temporarily shut 12 plants this month, idling 25,600 workers, as it cuts production in response to slumping car and truck sales. GM's latest plant closings come after the giant automaker reported an 18 percent decline in December sales and are part of ongoing plans to reduce first-quarter production by 14.5 percent, or 220,000 vehicles. More shutdowns will likely be announced in February. "We're taking a big chunk out in January," said GM spokesman Tom Wickham, adding: "We are looking at schedules and down-time beyond January." GM already said it will eliminate one of three production shifts on Feb. 12 at its Pontiac East full-sized pickup plant, resulting in the layoffs of 1,000 workers. Nine of the 12 plants will be down the week of Jan. 8, four the week of Jan. 15, three the week of Jan. 22 and four the week of Jan. 29. Locally, GM will only shut down the Orion Township assembly plant for three weeks beginning Monday. The plant builds the Buick LeSabre and Park Avenue, Oldsmobile Aurora and Pontiac Bonneville. Plants in Moraine, Ohio, Fairfax, Kan., and Oklahoma City will be shuttered as GM prepares to launch new vehicles. The remaining plants will be closed in response to GM's bloated inventories. GM had 1.3 million unsold vehicles on hand at the end of 2000.
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, JANUARY 4, 2001 Deteriorating economic conditions prompted the Federal Reserve to cut short-term interest rate targets by half a percentage point, a surprise move economists said sets the stage for further rate reductions and signals the central bank's commitment to keep the U.S. economy from sliding into a recession. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A7; page A1 in Washington Post, New York Times, Wall Street Journal). Staffing companies expect higher wages for temporary workers in the early months of 2001, according to the American Staffing Association's quarterly survey. Wages for temporary workers increased 5 percent between the third quarter of 1999 and the third quarter of 2000, the survey says. ... ASA's research indicates that wage increases for temporary workers are outpacing those of other workers, according to an ASA spokesman. He cited Bureau of Labor Statistics data showing that overall wages rose 4 percent during the same time period, while temporary workers saw 5 percent wage increases. Anecdotally, many staffing companies have reported raising wages up to 10 percent since early 2000, he added. "The labor market is still tight, and staffing firms' wages have gone up to address the shortage of workers." he said. Staffing companies also saw an increase in the use of temporary workers in the past year, the survey found. On average, 3.14 million temporary workers were employed on each working day during the third quarter of 2000, according to ASA. That figure is up from 2.96 million recorded a year earlier. ... About 100 companies supplied the most recent quarterly data on the temporary worker population, while about 200 respondents supplied the most recent wage data for that group, ASA said (Daily Labor Report, page A-2). Data compiled by the Bureau of National Affairs in all of 2000 show a weighted average first-year wage increase in newly negotiated contracts of 3.8 percent, compared with 3.2 percent in 1999. The manufacturing settlements provided a weighted average increase of 3.2 percent, the same as that negotiated in 1999. The weighted average increase in nonmanufacturing agreements excluding construction contracts was 4 percent, compared with 3 percent a year earlier. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Auto sales slowed precipitously last month, with domestic automakers reporting plunges of up to 18 percent from year-ago levels. Foreign automakers, though, escaped almost unscathed and gained market share. ... (New York Times, page C1)_U.S. auto sales fell 8 percent in December, the second straight month of declines, as the economic slowdown tightened its grip on consumers at the end of a record sales year. Even with the Federal Reserve's move to cut interest rates, auto makers said the watchword for 2001 is caution. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A3) Construction spending fell in November, the first drop in 4 months, but remained at a level suggesting that builders have escaped the economic slowdown, Commerce Department figures show. A drop in outlays on public works and home improvements led the November decline, the largest since spending fell 0.7 percent in July, the last decrease. Still, spending on single-family homes increased for the first time in 8 months. It also increased on apartments, condominiums, and town houses and on industrial projects and public schools. ... (New York Times, page C2). As retailers' final holiday sales tallies trickle in, one thing is clear: The strong finish many retailers hoped would save their most important shopping season never materialized. ... (Wall Street Journal, page B13)_Retailers benefited from sharp markdowns the final week of December, but fell short of what was needed to lift overall sales for the crucial holiday shopping season. According to the Redbook Average, sales were up 2.4 percent the week ended Dec. 30, contributing to the month's average 2.1 percent sales gain vs. 4.5 percent a year ago. ... (USA Today, page 1B). Fewer than one in four employers now provide medical coverage of any kind for Medicare-eligible retirees; 40 percent provided retiree coverage in 1994, according to a recent survey of companies with 500 or more employees by William M. Mercer, a benefits consulting company. About 31 percent of employers still cover retirees under age 65, who are not yet eligible for Medicare, but that, too, is down -- from 43 percent in 1994 and 46 percent in 1993, Mercer said. The largest companies, those with at least 5,000 employees, are more likely to cover retirees, said the research director in Washington for the benefits consulting firm Hewitt Associates. However, even many of them have limited the benefits by raising deductibles, or placing caps or ceilings on how much they will pay, and shifting other costs to the former employees, he said. ... (New York Times, Dec. 31, "Money Business" section, page 8). "It's all in the numbers,
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 3, 2001 RELEASED TODAY: In November, 217 metropolitan areas recorded unemployment rates below the U.S. average (3.8 percent, not seasonally adjusted), while 108 areas registered higher rates. Forty-one metropolitan areas had jobless rates below 2.0 percent, with 13 of these located in the Midwest, 13 in the South, and 12 in New England. Seven of the eight areas with rates above 10.0 percent were in the West. ... __Manufacturing activity declined in December for the fifth month in a row, reaching its lowest level since the economy emerged from recession in the spring of 1991, the National Association of Purchasing Management says. NAPM's closely watched business survey finds the purchasing managers' index fell 4 percentage points, to 43.7 percent, in December -- the lowest reading since April 1991 when the index dropped to 42.9 percent. A reading below 50 percent means the sector is contracting. December marks the fifth consecutive month manufacturing activity has not grown, although the overall economy continued to grow. ... The chair of NAPM's manufacturing business survey committee says, "For manufacturing, higher interest rates and higher energy prices in 2000 have contributed greatly toward a lackluster year for most of the sector. ... At 42.8 percent, the employment index fell below 50 percent for the third month in a row. The only industry indicating job growth in December was instruments and photographic equipment, the report said. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-7). __There was fresh evidence that the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy was slipping into recession and threatening to drag the rest of the economy down with it. ... "If this kind of news continues, it would give legitimacy to those who see a recession" this year, said the chief economist for Credit Suisse First Boston, who noted that the slowdown in production was hitting both high- and low-tech manufacturers. ... At the moment, the consensus of economic forecasters is that the economy will continue to slow, growing at an annual rate of about 2 percent through March, and then picking up steam. That's a dramatic slowdown from the 5.6 percent growth rates of last spring, but still short of a recession -- defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. ... Most analysts expect Friday's jobs report to show a 0.1 percent increase in the unemployment rate with a modest 100,000 gain in new jobs. But should the report fall short of expectations, the Fed would come under considerable pressure to move aggressively to lower short-term interest rates. ... (Washington Post, page E1). __United States manufacturers received sharply fewer orders, made fewer products, and employed fewer workers in December than they did in the previous month, sending a closely watched index of manufacturing activity to its lowest level since 1991. ... Some economists are worried that the rapid slowdown is entering a vicious cycle, in which job losses create nervousness more broadly among consumers, leading to less spending and, eventually, more layoffs. ... (New York Times, page C1). __The overall economy may not be in recession, but the manufacturing sector's downward spiral accelerated last month. ... "What a way to start the year," said the chairman of the National Association of Purchasing Managers manufacturing survey committee. "A year ago we would have been talking about a shortage of people in the manufacturing sector, now we're talking about the possibility of layoffs, so there's been a dramatic change over the last 12 months." ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). Perhaps shoppers did not notice as they scurried through supermarkets filling carts with potato chips and nachos for the holiday party, but their loads may have been a little lighter than in the past. In an effort to offset rising production costs, Frito-Lay, the world's largest maker of salty snack foods, has begun putting fewer chips in bags of Fritos, Chee-tos, and other well-known brands while keeping the price the same. ... Industry insiders have a name for the practice: the weight-out. It is a subtle way of earning more from everyday products without scaring off price-conscious shoppers, and it is quite legal as long as the package accurately describes what is inside. Makers of candy, coffee, and tuna fish have all tried weight-outs, with varying success. But the practice had been relatively scarce since the mid-1990s, largely because the cost of raw materials was low enough that manufacturers could afford to forgo price increases . Now, however, the cost of production is rising -- expenses like energy, packaging, even ink. So weight-outs have slowly begun to resurface as a means of maintaining corporate profits without enraging customers, who are often none the wiser. ... (nytimes.com, Jan. 2; NBC "Today" news show, Jan. 3 a.m.). President-elect Bush chooses Li
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 20, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: BLS announces the first release of national employment and wage estimates from the Occupational Employment Statistics survey using the new OMB Standard Occupational Classification system. The new SOC system consists of 821 detailed occupations, grouped into 449 broad occupations, 96 minor groups, and 23 major groups. ... The nation's retailers are hoping for strong sales this weekend to rescue them from their slowest Christmas in recent years. Sales were down sharply last week compared with a year ago, and stores report they are failing to meet even the conservative targets they set for themselves this season. Retailers have had to contend with a weak economy, bad weather, high energy costs , and the absence of hot new products that would drive shoppers into stores. ... On the favorable side of the ledger, however, are a longer-than-normal shopping season because of an early Thanksgiving and the fact that Christmas falls on a Monday, giving consumers a full weekend to finish shopping. The International Council of Shopping Centers reported that sales at specialty stores in the nation's malls fell by 12 percent in the third week of December and are down 8.2 percent for the period between Thanksgiving and Dec. 17. ... (Washington Post, page A1). Federal Reserve policymakers left interest rates unchanged but indicated they are leaning toward a cut in the future. Agency says economic slowdown poses greater threat than inflation. ... (Washington Post, page E1)_The Fed said it was shifting its sights from fighting inflation to steering the economy away from a possible recession. The central bank left interest rates unchanged, but made clear it was ready to cut rates if the current slowdown shows signs of developing into a full-fledged downturn. ... (New York Times, page A1)_The Fed abandoned its anti-inflation stance, declaring that the risks of economic weakness in the foreseeable future exceed the risks of inflation. But officials left short-term rate unchanged, disappointing investors. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). Buck Consultants releases national survey of 88 health insurers, health maintenance organizations, and third-party administrators pointing to double-digit increases in health care rates. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-9). Commerce Department reports trade deficit fell $0.5 billion to $33.2 billion in October as U.S. imports and exports declined. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1)_America's trade deficit stayed close to an all-time high, as imports of crude oil climber to the highest level ever. The deficits with China and Japan also set records, propelled higher by a flood of Christmas toys and automobiles. The October trade deficit was down a slight 1.6 percent from September's biggest imbalance in history. ... (Washington Post, page E2)_The U.S. trade deficit shrank in a sign of the economic slowdown, though the gap was still the second largest ever. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Consumer Expenditures in 1999 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, DECEMBER 18, 2000 __The CPI-U advanced 0.2 percent in November as cigarette prices increased sharply and energy price gains began to moderate, BLS reports. Tobacco prices increased 3.4 percent during November, and airfares, influenced by higher prices for jet fuel, increased 0.9 percent. The core CPI-U, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, rose a slightly higher than expected 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. Analysts, however, say the November data show that there is no real inflationary pressure on the economy outside of the energy sector. They explain that, in fact, slowing gross domestic product growth and a trend toward more unemployment in early 2001 may actually reduce inflationary pressures. ... (Brett Ferguson in Daily Labor Report, page D-4). __Consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in November, for the second month in a row, as lower prices for clothing, recreation, and other items were more than offset by increases elsewhere, notably in the prices of used cars and tobacco products. Energy prices, which increased sharply earlier in the year, were nearly flat. ... (John M. Berry in Washington Post, Dec. 16, page E1). The inflation-adjusted earnings of most U.S. wage and salary workers edged down by 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in November, according to BLS. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-22). Production at the nation's factories, mines, and utilities slipped for the second month in a row, dropping a greater-than-expected 0.2 percent in November, according to the Federal Reserve. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-17). Prices climb as production slows -- The CPI rose 0.2 percent last month, matching the gain in October and analysts' expectations, BLS said. Separately, the Fed said that production at factories, mines, and utilities fell 0.2 percent in November after a 0.1 percent decline in October. ... (Bloomberg News in New York Times, Dec. 16, page B15). The Fed is weighing a more aggressive response to the slowing economy. It may issue an explicit statement that the risks of recession now exceed those of inflation, or even cut interest rates. Murky data are making it hard to determine if inflation is heating up. While commodities and energy prices have begun to moderate, consumer inflation is inching higher. ... (Wall Street Journal, pages A3, A12, B16). Job growth appears to be slowing nationally, but the scarcity of workers to fill certain jobs is expected to be among several factors pushing up private sector wages through at least the middle of next year, according to the latest Wage Trend Indicator reported by BNA. ... Early this year, the WTI projected a ratcheting up of private industry wage gains to the 4 percent level, a pattern that has been consistent in the measure since then. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Omnibus spending bill passed by House and Senate includes funding for new compensation program for nuclear defense workers exposed to beryllium, radiation, and other hazards and for new agency dedicated to addressing workplace barriers faced by persons with disabilities. ... (Daily Labor Report, page AA-1). Europe is facing a severe shortage of skilled labor in the information technology sector, which could result in employers struggling to fill as many as 1.6 million openings in two years, according to a study issued by the International Labor Organization. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-2). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Employment and Average Annual Pay for Large Counties, 1999 application/ms-tnef
BLS daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, DECEMBER 19, 2000
Meatpacking plants, at 26.7 per 100 employees, had the highest nonfatal
injury and illness incidence rate among industries last year, says BLS.
Strains and cuts tend to account for many of the injuries ("Work Week" in
Wall Street Journal, page A1).
Mine deaths, following a record low two years ago, see a small rise. This
year's total, at 82 so far, still could fall below last year's 90. Yet
safety officials see the trend, following 1998's all-time low of 80, as a
disappointment. ... In recent years, five or six deaths have occurred in
the last few weeks of the year. Coal-mining fatalities, which have risen to
36 so far this year from 29 two years ago, account for the rise. ... ("Work
Week" in Wall Street Journal, page A1).
Many employers believe there will be a push to share more of the burden of
rising prescription drug costs with plan participants through coinsurance,
according to findings by the International Society of Certified Employee
Benefit Specialists. Sixty-five percent of employers surveyed agree that
rising drug prices will force plan sponsors to shift from copayments to a
percentage-based coinsurance structure. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-8).
The Senate approved Leslie Kramerich as assistant secretary of labor for
pension and welfare benefits and Gordon Heddell as Labor Department's
inspector general. Kramerich had been serving as acting assistant head of
the Pension and Welfare Benefits Administration before being nominated for
the permanent slot last July. ... Heddell, a 28-year veteran of the federal
law enforcement system, was nominated inspector general last March. He has
served as assistant director in the U.S. Secret Service's Office of
Inspection (Daily Labor Report, page A-10).
DUE OUT TOMORROW: Occupational Employment and Wages in 1999 Based on the
New Standard Occupational Classification System
application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, DECEMBER 14, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods advanced 0.1 percent in November, seasonally adjusted. This index rose 0.4 percent in October and 0.9 percent in September. The index for finished goods other than foods and energy showed no change in November, following a 0.1 percent decline in the prior month. Prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods decreased 0.2 percent, after a 0.2 percent gain a month earlier. The crude goods index fell 2.0 percent, following a 3.4 percent increase in the previous month. ... Another surge in world oil prices accounted for most of a 0.2 percent rise in total import prices during November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The modest advance in import prices last month followed a 0.5 percent decline in October. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1; USA Today, page 1B). Sagging automobile and truck sales pushed retail sales down a weaker-than-expected 0.4 percent in November, the first decline since April and the sharpest since July 1998, the Commerce Department reported. But minus car and truck sales, retail sales were up 0.2 percent, not far off the 0.4 percent gain posted in October. In addition, November sales still were 5.2 percent higher than they had been a year earlier, and sales during the first 11 months of 2000 were 8.7 percent higher than they had been over the same period in 1999. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-3)_U.S. retail sales fell in November for the first time in 7 months as business declined at auto dealers and consumers were slow to scoop up discounted merchandise at the start of the holiday shopping season. Personal spending in the fourth quarter is shaping up to be the weakest in 1-1/2 years. That fact has pushed down share prices of retailers and has prompted General Motors Corp. and other automakers to slash output and lay off workers. ... (Washington Post, page E3) "Retail sales have suddenly fizzled out as worries over heating costs this winter and a stock market decline have suddenly made Americans very cautious," says the senior financial economist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. in New York. ... Separate figures from BLS show that the costs of imported goods are contained. That is impeding the ability of United States Companies to raise prices as they strive to stay competitive. ... (New York Times, page C6)_Retailers opened the holiday shopping season on a sour note, as the sharpest decline in auto sales in more than 2 years drove overall sales lower. ... Inflation, meanwhile, remains tame. Import prices excluding oil fell 0.1 percent in November. Including oil, import prices rose 0.2 percent. ... Some economists believe the latest numbers on consumer demand don't tell the whole story. Thanksgiving came early in November this year, meaning the holiday shopping season began earlier than usual. That should have given the November figures a big boost, but didn't, which "makes the underlying numbers even weaker than they appear," says a senior economist at Bear Stearns in New York (Wall Street Journal, page A2; USA Today, page 1B). You might think more workers would start looking for a better job as the economy expands and unemployment falls. But in the second half of the 1990's, the share of employed workers actively searching for a new job slipped from 5.6 percent to 4.5 percent, notes BLS. The drop occurred among workers of all ages, but was more pronounced among those under 25. Job-search activities are always highest for workers in their early 20s, and decline as people age. Similarly, highly educated workers are more likely than the less educated to be looking for a different job. Workers who lack health coverage or an employer-provided retirement plan are twice as likely to be seeking a new job as those who enjoy such benefits. And the most likely by far are those who are working part time involuntarily. ... (Gene Koretz in "Economic Trends," Business Week, Dec. 18, page 36). BNA's latest quarterly employment survey shows hiring prospects have dimmed somewhat in recent quarters, but employment outlook remains brighter than in early and mid-1990s with low layoff incidence and few reports of imminent workforce cutbacks. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-6). Data compiled by the Bureau of National Affairs in the first 50 weeks of 2000 show that the weighted average first-year wage increase in newly negotiated contracts was 3.8 percent. Manufacturing contracts provide a weighted increase of 3.2 percent, while nonmanufacturing agreements, excluding construction, showed a weighted increase of 4.1 percent. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-8). If the flagging economy and souring stock market weren't bad enough, here's more gloomy news: Employers are cutting back when it comes to year-end holiday bonuses. Blame the penny-pinching on an uncertain financial outlook, changes in the way
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: CPI -- The CPI-U increased 0.2 percent in November, after seasonal adjustment, the same as in October. The food index, which rose 0.1 percent in October, was unchanged in November. The energy index increased 0.1 percent in November, following a 0.2 percent rise in October. In November, the index for petroleum-based energy increased 0.1 percent, while the index for energy services declined 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.3 percent, following a 0.2 percent rise in October. A sharp upturn in the tobacco index was principally responsible for the larger advance in November. ... REAL EARNINGS -- Real average weekly earnings declined by 0.1 percent from October to November after seasonal adjustment, according to preliminary data. A 0.3 percent decrease in average weekly hours and a 0.2 percent increase in the CPI-W were partially offset by a 0.4 percent increase in average hourly earnings. ... Over the year, real average weekly earnings fell by 0.1 percent. ... __Wholesale prices for finished goods inched up only 0.1 percent during November, allaying some analysts' concerns about inflation resulting from the nation's low unemployment rate, but also showing that businesses have little power to raise prices. November's modest increase in producer prices was largely attributable to weaker gains in energy prices, which grew only 0.4 percent during the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says. Over the past 12 months, the prices for finished goods have increased 3.7 percent; excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, the core PPI was unchanged in November and is up 1.0 percent from last year. ... (Brett Ferguson in Daily Labor Report, page A-8). __Prices paid to producers in November showed the smallest gain in 3 months, and business inventories rose in October, indicating that companies have little latitude to raise prices. The Fed's efforts to slow the economy and control inflation seem to be taking hold. The report on producer prices suggests that inflation is becoming less of a threat to a record economic expansion that is about to enter its 11th year. ... A separate Labor Department report showed initial jobless claims declined 32,000, to a level of 320,000 for the week ended Dec. 9. ... Business inventories rose in October, after rising 0.2 percent a month earlier, the Commerce Department report showed. ... (Bloomberg News in New York Times, page C9). __Federal Reserve policy makers gearing up to meet in Washington, D.C., next week got a dose of holiday cheer, as new data showed inflation remains tame while the economy continues to cool. The producer price index, which gauges inflation pressures before they reach consumers, slipped 0.1 percent in November after gaining 0.4 percent a month earlier. ... (Yochi J. Dreazen in Wall Street Journal, page A2). Faced with slowing economic growth and a highly uncertain short-term economic outlook, a number of Federal Reserve officials have concluded that the risk of serious weakness in the economy is as great as the risk that inflation will get worse, according to interviews in recent weeks. The officials, who will meet Tuesday as the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank's top policymaking group, are expected to adopt that view formally. ... (Washington Post, page E1). The U.S. current account deficit hit yet another record in the third quarter. ... Growth in goods imports outstripped export growth, while service exports, usually an American strength, failed to expand as much as American purchases of foreign services. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 13, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: The U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.2 percent in November. The increase was largely attributable to a rise in imported petroleum prices. The Export Price Index was unchanged in November. ... On-the-job injuries and illnesses declined another 4 percent in 1999, and the nation's injury and illnesses rate -- 6.3 cases for every 100 workers -- was the lowest since the federal government began reporting annual injury figures, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Some 5.7 million total nonfatal injuries and illnesses were counted for 1999, compared with 6.1 million in 1998. Most of the injuries and illnesses counted for 1999 -- some 5.3 million -- were injuries, BLS reports. ... The overall rate of 6.3 cases per 100 workers in 1999 is evidence of a consistent decline in the nation's injury and illness rate from the 1973 high of 11.0 per 100 workers in the bureau's first survey. ... Manufacturing continues to report the highest injury and illness rate of 9.2 cases per 100, BLS says. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). The nation's purchasing managers say it is getting harder to pass along increases in wages and commodity prices to customers, offering evidence that the spur in energy prices and the tight labor market aren't sparking a new round of inflation. Only 13 percent of purchasing managers in manufacturing and 25 percent of those outside manufacturing told the National Association of Purchasing Management that their companies are able to pass along all or most cost increases. A year earlier, 17 percent of manufacturers and 36 percent of the nonmanufacturers said they were able to do so. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2)_Manufacturers are less optimistic about the business outlook for 2001 than they were for 2000, with the strong U.S. dollar, high energy prices, foreign competition, slower economic growth at home and abroad, and higher interest rates expected to curb activity. Manufacturing firms' growth will continue next year, with activity in the second half outpacing activity in the first 6 months. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-8). Recent volatility in wholesale energy markets is undermining the credit ratings and may eventually crimp the borrowing ability of some of the nation's biggest utilities, long regarded in the credit markets as some of the safest bets around. It is the worst out West, where the price of power to be delivered today hit a new high of $1,182 per megawatt hour on California's state sanctioned auction, a benchmark for the entire region. That compared with $30 a year ago. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). Customers will face record natural gas prices all winter because of soaring demand and a dwindling supply, energy experts told Congress. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). Skittish retailers are still waiting for the buying rush. Even though most merchants have set sales-growth targets lower than last year's, several major chains so far are having trouble meeting even those targets during the critical holiday shopping period, according to the investment firm UBS Warburg. Retailers and retail analysts have said all along that this year's shopping season would be less spectacular than last year's and would get off to a slow start because there are more days than usual between Thanksgiving and Christmas. But the snapshots taken by organizations that track retail sales and traffic suggest that even those cautious forecasts may have been too optimistic. ... (Washington Post, page E3). Microsoft agreed to pay $97 million yesterday to settle an 8-year-old class-action lawsuit in which thousands of temporary employees accused the company of improperly denying them benefits. Microsoft reached this settlement, one of the largest ever received by a group a temporary employees, after the workers had sued the company, maintaining that they were actually permanent employees, not temporaries, and therefore deserved the same benefits as regular workers. This lawsuit, originally filed in December 1992, was by far the most prominent lawsuit in the nation attacking a popular practice in which many companies hired workers as temps, kept them for a year or more, and did not provide them with regular permanent employee benefits. In recent years, partly in reaction to the lawsuit, Microsoft has taken several major steps to change its employment policies. ... (New York Times, page C1; Washington Post, page E1; Wall Street Journal, page C10; Daily Labor Report, page AA-1). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Producer Price Indexes -- November 2000 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, DECEMBER 12, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: A total of 5.7 million injuries and illnesses were reported in private industry workplaces during 1999, resulting in a rate of 6.3 cases per 100 equivalent full-time workers. Employers reported a 4 percent drop in the number of cases and a 2 percent increase in the hours worked compared with 1998, reducing the case rate from 6.7 in 1998 to 6.3 in 1999. The rate for 1999 was the lowest since BLS began reporting this information in the early 1970s. ... The economy continues to shift toward high technology, but a coming wave of baby-boomer retirements also will boost demand for more traditional skills. The Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts employers will replace about 25 percent more retirees between 2003 and 2008 than they did between 1993 and 1998. Demand will be greatest for secretaries, drivers of heavy trucks, elementary school teachers, and industrial engineers (Wall Street Journal's "Work Life" feature, page A1). With 6,000 Internet job sites in operation, the BLS says more than twice as many people now look for work online than use private employment agencies. [Based on research by outside authors published in the October 2000 Monthly Labor Review] (The Wall Street Journal's "Work Life" feature, page A1). The epidemic of back injuries among nurses is to be the subject of research at a Florida veterans' hospital. ... The type of worker most prone to having a bad back may not be a construction laborer, truck loader, of warehouse worker -- but rather a nurse, according to figures for BLS. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-5). The nation's jobless rate rose in November and third-quarter growth was its most sluggish in 4 years. Yet the labor market remains tight and experts say it may stay so. An employment outlook survey of 16,000 companies by Milwaukee staffing firm Manpower Inc. found 27 percent expect to increase staff next year while 58 percent will maintain current employment levels. Manpower says the job market is so tight that employers who add staff for peak business periods, such as retailers, should recruit workers year round to stay competitive (Wall Street Journal's "Work Life" feature, page A1). __Mirroring an expected slowdown in the nation's economy, nonfarm employment in California, which has grown at a 3 percent or better pace for 4 consecutive years, will slow markedly in 2001 and 2002 to about half the 3.6 percent gain recorded this year, the quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast predicts. ... Few economists expect a recession next year, although most forecasters have lowered their growth projections in recent weeks amid mounting reports of sluggish growth. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-2)_California's economy will weaken due to the shakeout in Silicon Valley, but it will continue to outpace the rest of the U.S., several economists forecast. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). __The percentage of American workers who received health insurance coverage through an employer increased between 1998 and 1999, the Employee Benefit Research Institute says. According to EBRI, employers were the source of coverage for 158.4 million Americans in 1999, up from 154.8 million in 1998. In 1999, 73.3 percent of American workers were covered by an employer-based health plan, up from 72.8 percent in 1998. EBRI said the expansion continued a longer-term trend that began in 1993, and based its analysis upon Census data. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-4). __Employment is the most important factor in obtaining health care coverage for most nonelderly Americans, a new survey by the Health Insurance Association of America found. The HIAA survey found that more than three out of five workers, or 63 percent, receive job-based coverage and nearly three out of four workers, or 74 percent, were offered health insurance by their employer. However, 13.6 million of the 17 million uninsured workers were not offered health insurance by their employers, the survey found. Lower-income workers -- especially those who work part time -- are less likely to be offered job-based coverage and less likely to accept such coverage if offered. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-7). __The cost of employer-sponsored health insurance benefits will rise 11 percent next year, and many employers say they will pass on more of the expense to workers, according to a national survey of employers. Two out of five employers plan to deduct more money from employees' paychecks for health benefits next year, the survey of 3,326 companies by William M. Mercer Inc., a New York-based consulting firm, found. Last year, one in five employers said they would increase employee health insurance payments. ... (Washington Post, page E1). __New York benefits consultant William M. Mercer Inc. says employer health-benefit costs rose 8.1 percent in 2000. But the job market is making employers reluctant to pass those costs on to current worke
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, DECEMBER 8, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: Payroll employment increased by 94,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 4.0 percent. Employment rose by 148,000 in the private sector, with gains in the service-producing industries. Employment was little changed in the goods-producing industries and declined in government. Average hourly earnings increased by 6 cents. ... Teenagers are gaining work experience at increasingly younger ages, with 80 percent of those 16 and older reporting at least part-time employment during some part of the year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. "Even at these relatively young ages, youths enrolled in school began forming strong year-round attachments to the formal labor market," said the report drawing on the national longitudinal survey of youth who were between the ages of 12 and 17 when first interviewed. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-3). With large numbers of electronic commerce firms and the country's automakers leading the pack, U.S. companies announced 44,152 job reductions during November, according to the international outplacement firm Challenger, Gray Christmas Inc. The November increase marked the fifth consecutive month that the firm's survey has shown a rise of more than 40,000 job cuts. That brings the total layoffs announced between July and November to more than 250,000, the report said. ... Labor Department figures on claims filed for state unemployment insurance benefits showed that, while the level of new claims filed declined in the most recent week, the total remained the highest in 2 years. ... For the January-to-November period of this year, the auto industry has accounted for the largest number of layoff announcements, with a total of 59,621. Second is retail, with 56,623. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-9). Information technology professionals have been working longer hours but achieving less throughout 2000 as the turnover rate has grown dramatically, according to a study conducted by the Stamford, Conn.-based IT consulting firm Meta Group. It found that information technology professionals in the United States are working an average of 2,157 hours per year, up 36 percent from 1999 levels. More than 8,000 individuals contacted in firms throughout the United States participated in the study, Meta Group said. At the same time, productivity has fallen nearly 47 percent, and the turnover rate grew to 10.2 percent, up from 7.9 percent in 1999. A possible explanation for the productivity decline is the adoption of new technologies and practices that many IT workers are not familiar with, a Meta Group researcher says. However, those IT professionals who have more experience with the new technologies can command a premium in the labor market, leading to a higher turnover rate as talented workers are lured away by higher-paying jobs. The study also said the trend toward more work for IT professionals is expected to grow in 2001. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-9). The nation's drum-tight labor markets are beginning to loosen somewhat, government figures showed, providing further evidence that U.S. economic growth has shifted to a slower pace from the extraordinarily rapid rates of the past couple of years. As a result, the nation's 3.9 percent jobless rate -- the lowest in 3 decades -- is likely to also head upward, and that may be evidence as soon as today, when the Labor Department releases its employment report for last month. ... The easing of the labor market has become apparent in the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits filed by workers who have lost their jobs, a number some economists are watching closely for signs of whether the slowdown in growth may turn into something worse. The number ticked downward last week, but the volatile weekly figures still seem to show a clear, substantial upward trend. ... (Washington Post, page E1). Traffic at department stores slid close to 5 percent last week from a year ago, and mall sales fell 6.9 percent, despite a hefty bout of promotional sales. With the stock market shaky and mounting signs of an economic slowdown, the midseason lull is making retailers particularly edgy this year. Despite a selling sweep on a handful of unexpectedly popular toys, most economists are predicting that holiday sales will be lukewarm this Christmas. And one big fear is lurking in many retailers' minds, that a last minute snowstorm will keep some shoppers from resuming their shopping spree on December 23. Over the last decade, the busiest shopping day of the year has shifted from the day after Thanksgiving to the Saturday before Christmas. ... (The Wall Street Journal, page B1). Medical costs are rising and insurance premiums could jump 20 percent -- signs that managed care isn't working, says USA Today (page 1A). The biggest jumps in health insurance premiums in a decade are forecast for next year -- 10 to
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, DECEMBER 11, 2000 __The pace of job creation across the U.S. economy was sluggish in November, as modest gains in the private sector were blunted by unexpected declines in government hiring, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The civilian unemployment rate edged up 0.1 percentage point to 4.0 percent in November. Payroll employment excluding agriculture grew by only 94,000 in November, marking the second straight month that payrolls expanded by fewer than 100,000, according to revised figures. ... Analysts generally interpret the November jobs report as buttressing the "soft landing" scenario that most forecasters currently subscribe to. Manufacturing remained weak and construction payrolls were down modestly after 2 months of substantial gains. ... BLS Commissioner Katharine Abraham characterized the November growth as showing continued employment gains in several industries, "tempered by a larger decline in government payrolls and a lack of job growth in construction, manufacturing, and several service industries." ... (Pam Ginsbach in Daily Labor Report, page D-1; statement of Commissioner Abraham, page E-1). __With U.S. economic growth slowing, the nation's unemployment rate ticked up to 4 percent last month, while employers' payrolls grew only moderately. Analysts said the report provided further confirmation that growth has slowed recently from the very rapid pace of the first half of this year, which many economists and policymakers regarded as unsustainable. However, the details showed little sign of excessive weakness that would point to a serious slump. ... (John M. Berry in Washington Post, Dec. 9, page E1). __Businesses continued to increase their work forces in November, but at a slower rate than they did in the first half of the year. ... (New York Times, page B1). __The nation's unemployment rate is beginning to rise after months of hovering near a three-decade low. Many analysts are wondering just how far, and how fast, the rate will ultimately climb. ... (Yochi J. Dreazen in Wall Street Journal, page A2). More companies are permitting new employees to participate in 401(k) and profit sharing plans without a waiting period, according to a new survey released by the Profit Sharing/401(k) Council of America. The study finds 37 percent of 401(k) plans surveyed permit employees to begin contributing during the first month of employment, up from 24 percent in 1998; 52 percent of the 401(k) plans studied permit employees to begin saving within 3 months of hire, up from 32 percent of plans in 1998. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A3). The Wall Street Journal's feature "Tracking the Economy" (page A12) predicts that import prices in November will rise 0.5 percent when released Wednesday, according to the Thomson Global Forecast. The actual change in October was minus 0.5 percent. Import prices excluding petroleum are expected to up ).1 percent in November. ... The November producer price index, to be released Thursday, is predicted to be up 0.2 percent; the actual October index figure was 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the November PPI is predicted to be up 0.1 percent; the actual October index was minus 0.1 percent. ... The November consumer price index, to be released Friday, is predicted to be up 0.2 percent, the same as the October index. The consumer price index excluding food and energy also is expected to be up 0.2 percent, the same as in October. DUE OUT TOMORROW: Workplace Injuries and Illnesses in 1999 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
DAILY LABOR REPORT, THURSDAY, DECEMBER 7, 2000 __Productivity in the nation's nonfarm business sector moderated to a 3.3 percent annual rate of growth in the third quarter, reflecting the overall economic slowdown, BLS says, releasing revised figures. The agency also says unit labor costs in the quarter were the highest in more than a year. ... National Association of Manufacturers President Jerry Jasinowski said the latest BLS figures indicate that corporations are responding to cost increases "not by raising prices but by cutting expenses." Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said he believed that, even as the overall rate of economic growth and productivity gains have slowed, "during the summer months output per hour advanced at a pace sufficiently impressive to affirm a definitely elevated underlying rate of structural productivity growth from the levels of a decade ago." ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). __The productivity of workers, which has underpinned the nation's record economic expansion, rose in the third quarter, but at a much slower pace than in the previous one. Nonfarm productivity, which measures the output per worker outside the farm sector, rose at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the third quarter, down from an initial estimate of 3.8 percent. That was weaker than the 3.5 percent gain forecast by Wall Street economists and much slower than the 6.1 percent advance in the second quarter. ... (Reuters story in New York Times, page C10). The Federal Reserve reports economic growth slowed further in November and consumer prices held steady despite tight labor markets and rising health care benefits costs. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-12)___ __Just a day after Chairman Alan Greenspan said the Federal Reserve was alert to the possibility of a sharp economic slowdown, the central bank's latest survey of regional economic conditions made clear that the situation is far from dire. Eight of the Fed's 12 regions reported slower growth, with only New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Minneapolis experiencing steady growth. ... The survey found inflation didn't budge much, despite rising wages and health-care costs. The ultratight labor market eased, though scattered labor shortages continued. ... ( Wall Street Journal, page A2) The economy showed further signs of slower growth in November, with weakness in auto sales, manufacturing, and construction, the Federal Reserve said. In its latest survey of business conditions around the country, the Fed said eight districts -- Boston, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco -- were seeing signs of a slowdown, while New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Minneapolis reported "moderate, steady growth." The Fed survey, known as the beige book for the color of its cover, will be used when the central bank's policymakers meet Dec. 19 to determine whether to adjust interest rates. ... Financial analysts are not expecting the Fed policymakers to cut interest rates at its December meeting, but they do believe they will shift their policy statement to neutral, away from the position of worrying more about higher inflation than about weakness in the economy. The beige book says that, while labor markets remained tight around the country, wage growth had continued generally to be moderate. It did note "widespread reports of increased costs for employee health benefits." Meanwhile, the BLS released a revised estimate showing that productivity, the key to rising living standards, rose at a solid annual rate of 3.3 percent in the July-September quarter. That figure was slightly lower than an estimate a month ago that productivity was rising at a 3.8 percent annual rate. In a potentially worrisome development, unit labor costs, a key measure of wage pressures, rose at a 2.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the fastest pace since a 4.3 percent jump in the April-June quarter of 1999. The new third quarter figure represented an upward revision from an original estimate of a 2.5 percent increase in labor costs. ... (AP story by Martin Crutsinger in Washington Post, page E3). Cursed for generations by unemployment and emigration, newly prosperous Ireland has embarked on a global recruitment drive as it runs out of workers to fill the jobs created by its flourishing economy. ... The turnaround has been relatively swift. ... The boom, in which the economy has grown at an average annual rate of 9 percent in recent years, has been fueled by massive investment by foreign companies, many in the high-tech sector. Attracted by the presence of a well-educated English-speaking work force, low corporate tax rates, and relatively low wages, companies such as Microsoft Corp. and Intel Corp. have established key European operations on the Emerald Isle. ... The labor pool has grown through an increase in the number of working women, while unemployment has fallen to a record low of 3.7 percent. There are as
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 6, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: The revised seasonally adjusted annual rates of productivity growth in the third quarter were 2.8 percent in the business sector and 3.3 percent in the nonfarm business sector. The increases in labor productivity for the business and nonfarm business sectors are the result of increases in output combined with small declines in the hours of all persons working in the sector. In manufacturing, revised productivity increases in the third quarter were 7.3 percent in manufacturing, 11.2 percent in durable goods manufacturing, and 1.7 percent in nondurable goods manufacturing. ... Although the number of mass layoff events was down over the first 9 months of this year compared with 1999, the number of workers filing initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits was somewhat higher, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In October alone, BLS tracked 874 mass layoff events which involved 103,755 persons who filed UI claims. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Nonmanufacturing business activity grew at a slightly faster pace in November, but weakening demand for new orders has some companies anticipating a slowdown, the National Association of Purchasing Managers says, reporting on its monthly survey of more than 370 purchasing executives. Another change since October is the increase in service sector employment as firms worked to either fill vacancies or expand their operations. Nineteen percent of survey respondents said they increased employment levels in November, compared with 10 percent who said they cut jobs during the month. The industries reporting the highest rates of growth in employment during November included legal services, insurance, construction, mining, business services, and transportation. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-10). Figures released by the Federal Reserve show the U.S. industrial sector posted an annual average increase of 5.4 percent in total output between 1996 and the third quarter of 2000. The Fed's revision in industrial production and capacity utilization figures are part of its annual update that incorporates new information from various sources. Industrial production figures, for example, are derived from data compiled by the Commerce Department's Census Bureau, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, and others. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-11). Financial markets rallied strongly after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan acknowledged that U.S. economic growth has slowed "appreciably," convincing many investors that the central bank will begin to cut short-term interest rates if growth slows too much. ... (Washington Post, page A1; New York Times, page A1; Wall Street Journal, page A2). According to TeleCheck Services Inc., same-store sales were up 3.2 percent over last year's tally during the first 10 holiday shopping days, compared with the 4.9 percent increase registered last year. But two other reports suggested a sharp slowdown after the post-Thanksgiving 3-day weekend. According to the International Council of Shopping Centers, sales from Nov. 27 to Dec. 3 at specialty stores in the nation's malls were 6.9 percent lower than in the equivalent period last year. And the National Retail Federation said RCT Systems Inc. reported that mall traffic was down 2.3 percent during that same period, while traffic at department stores was down 4.6 percent. ... Meanwhile, online shopping registered an increase of 140 percent during the week that included Thanksgiving, according to a survey by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and PC Data Inc. ... Online sales for the season may double this year, the numbers suggest. ... (Washington Post, page E3). Americans are buying less jewelry and fewer homes than they did a year ago. Personal computers are gathering dust on warehouse shelves. Sales of airplane tickets and minivans have flattened in recent weeks. Just as the country has entered the most important shopping season of the year, consumers are holding back, reacting to a lower stock market and higher energy costs and interest rates. At the moment, the prospects for next year do not seem much better. The enthusiasm of American consumers for spending and borrowing, which has sustained the economy whenever it seemed to falter over the last decade, now appears to be at its lowest point in perhaps 5 years, economists say. Of course, those 5 years have been among the strongest in history, analysts say, and the economy continues to grow today at a rate that would have seemed healthy at many other times during the last 3 decades. Most economists still believe the United States is unlikely to enter a recession in the next 12 months, even if the odds have risen lately. ... (New York Times, December 3, page 1). These days, committing to a company for life is out of vogue. Job-hoppers are everywhere. But the faithful colleagues they leave behind may be loyal
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2000
RELEASED TODAY: In October 2000, there were 874 mass layoff actions by
employers as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits
during the month. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single
establishment, and the number of workers involved totaled 103,755. The
number of layoff events and initial claims for unemployment insurance were
the lowest for the month of October since the series began in 1995, due, in
part, to a calendar effect. (October 2000 contained 4 weeks that ended in
the month compared with 5 weeks in each of the prior three Octobers.) From
January through October 2000, the total number of layoff events (11,364) was
slightly lower than in January-October 1999, while the total number of
initial claims (1,292,335) was somewhat higher. ...
San Jose, Calif., had the nation's highest average pay level last year, at
$61,110 a year, says the Bureau of Labor Statistics ("Work Week" feature of
Wall Street Journal, page A1).
The index of leading indicators fell 0.2 percent in October, as
manufacturers ordered fewer consumer goods and stocks tumbled, the
Conference Board says. The index now stands at 105.5, its lowest point since
the same number was recorded in October 1999. ... An economist at the
Conference Board says, "The three factors to this trend are economic
cooling, job vacancies with no one to fill them, and the continued negative
yield curve which makes the leading indicators overstate the loss of
momentum in economic activity." He added that the leading indicators index
continues to point toward a "cooling of still strong economic conditions,"
while interest rates and growth restrains will dictate the pace and timing
of how much slower the economy will be this winter. ... (Daily Labor
Report, page D-1).
New home sales moderated in October, after surging the month before, further
evidence that economic growth is slowing to a more sustainable pace.
Americans purchased new single-family homes at a seasonally adjusted annual
rate of 928,000 in October, a 2.6 percent drop from September, the Commerce
Department said (Washington Post, page E2).
Sales of new homes fell 2.6 percent in October, but were still on pace for
the second-best year on record, the Commerce Department reported. A
separate report showed a decline in the index of leading economic
indicators. ... Builders will sell 898,000 new homes this year, compared
with 907,000 sold in 1999. Low unemployment and falling mortgage rates are
giving buyers the confidence to purchase homes, even at record prices. The
nationwide median price of a new home rose 2.9 percent in October, to a
record $174,900 from the $169,900 in September. ... (New York Times, page
C12)_With mortgage rates falling and demand high, new home sales
remained strong in October, suggesting that the housing sector may provide a
cushion for the broader economy. ... So far this year, total sales are just
1 percent below last year's current level. ... These numbers mean that the
housing sector could offset difficulties elsewhere in the economy,
especially in manufacturing, says the chief economist at First Union Bank
Corp. in Charlotte, N.C. ... In a separate report, the Conference Board
said its Index of Leading Indicators, a closely watched gauge of future
economic conditions, slipped 0.2 percent in October after remaining
unchanged a month earlier. Since January, the index has declined in 5
months and remained flat in 4 others, though analysts said than the measure
is stronger than it appears. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2).
Insurers and health plan managers expect employee health benefit cost trends
to rise about 10 to 15 percent next year, depending on the type. The
projections are based on past price moves, benefits usage, and other factors
and will help set employer rates for the coming year. But if recent history
is a guide, costs could trail those projections. Segal Co., a New York
benefits consultant, compares past projections with what actually happened
and found that actual increases were usually smaller than projected
increases. ... ("Work Week" feature of Wall Street Journal, page A1).
Of about 400 employers surveyed by Watson Wyatt Worldwide, 27 percent
rewarded at least some employees with a reduced work week this year,
compared with 19 percent last year ("Work Week" feature of Wall Street
Journal, page A1).
DUE OUT TOMORROW: Productivity and Costs -- Third Quarter 2000 (Revised)
application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily report
BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, DECEMBER 4, 2000 The Wall Street Journal's "Tracking the Economy" (A15) says that the BLS productivity figure for the third quarter, to be released Wednesday, is likely to be 3.5 percent, according to the Thomson Global Forecast, in comparison to the previous preliminary figure of 3.8 percent. BLS' November unemployment rate, to be released Friday, is expected to be 4.0 percent, compared with the actual figure of 3.9 percent for October. Nonfarm payrolls are projected to have risen 148,000 in November, compared with 137,000 in October. November average hourly earnings, also to be released Friday, are expected to move up 0.3 percent, slightly less than the 0.4 percent increase for October. Business activity in the manufacturing sector contracted at a faster rate in November, falling for the fourth consecutive month and reaching its lowest level of the year, according to a survey by the National Association of Purchasing Managers. NAPM's purchasing manager's index of manufacturing activity slid 0.6 percentage point to 47.7 percent in November, down from the 12-month high of 57.1 percent posted in November 1999. NAPM said a purchasing manager's index below 50 generally shows that the manufacturing economy is contracting, while a number above 50 would show that it is expanding. Analysts said the slowdown in manufacturing activity still is consistent with a "soft landing," and the NAPM index historically has not signaled a recession until it has fallen below 45 percent. ... Manufacturing employment contracted in November, falling 1.9 percentage points to 46 percent as companies that indicated they were maintaining employment levels in October decided to cut jobs in November. The five industries that reported growth in employment during November were instruments and photographic equipment, wood and wood products, electronic components and equipment, food, and chemicals (Daily Labor Report, page A-2; New York Times, Dec. 2, page B1). These are rough times for the nation's old-line manufacturers, who are feeling the sting of higher interest rates, falling domestic demand, and a global economic slowdown. For many construction companies, by contrast, business is better than it has been in months, as developers pour hundreds of millions of dollars into apartment buildings and business construction. The two industries' differing fortunes are complicating efforts to gauge the duration and intensity of the economic slowdown. The National Association of Purchasing Management said its manufacturing index declined for the fourth consecutive month in November, indicating the sector continues to slow significantly. If extended over a year, the data would be consistent with an economy inching up an anemic 1.9 percent. The Commerce Department, by contrast, said that construction spending jumped 0.9 percent in October, to its second highest level on record, suggesting that the sector will offer a sizable boost to overall economic growth. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). The combined sales of Detroit-based automakers fell 3.5 percent last month, compared with November of last year. While sales are still at a level that would have been considered very strong until the last 2 years, they have now lagged last year's pace in 6 of the last 7 months -- and much more production capacity is becoming available. General Motors, Ford Motor, and DaimlerChrysler have already responded by eliminating overtime and briefly closing a few factories. Ford and the Chrysler unit of DaimlerChrysler both announced further temporary closings. ... (New York Times, Dec. 2, page B1) Liberal arts graduates can expect to be more sought after this year and to be offered better salaries, according to the 30th annual recruiting trends survey conducted by the Collegiate Employment Research Institute at Michigan State University. Among the reasons: the earlier-than-predicted retirements of the oldest baby boomers. Also, with the high tech industry booming, employers have changed their attitudes about liberal arts majors. A total of 380 employers primarily in the manufacturing and professional services sectors responded to the survey(USA Today, page 8D). Expressing their growing concerns about the economic outlook, the National Association of Manufacturers officials say they will urge Congress and the new administration to promptly turn their attention to policy initiatives -- including tax cuts -- to keep the economy growing. ... The Federal Reserve should start reducing short-term interest rates to spur growth, the president of the NAM says. The central bank's Federal Open Market Committee generally is expected to remain on the sidelines when it next meets Dec. 19. ... Factory employment losses have totaled 121,000 over the year ended in October, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ... Higher energy prices and rising interest rates have hit manufactur
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, DECEMBER 1, 2000 The idea that the United States is increasingly a nation of entrepreneurs and self-starters has become accepted wisdom. ... Thirty million Americans are now some form of freelancer, recent articles in business magazines have proclaimed. ... There is a problem, however, with this futuristic vision: It does not appear to jibe with reality. Rather than booming in recent years, self-employment has declined both in numbers and as a share of the work force. In the strong economy, it seems large companies desperate for additional workers have managed to lure employees from all over, in part by offering some of the benefits of self-employment. At the same time, the difficulties of entrepreneurship have become less tolerable. Since 1994, the number of self-employed Americans outside agriculture has fallen by 146,000, to 12.9 million, according to BLS. The period between 1994 and 1999, hailed as a golden age for entrepreneurs, is the first 5-year span since the 1960s in which the number of self-employed fell. By contrast, for most of the last 3 decades, self-employment grew slightly faster than the overall labor force. ... The drop has taken place in every region of the country, with the greatest falloff in Western states that still have higher self-employment rates than other areas, said Steve Hipple, an economist at BLS. ... (David Leonhardt in New York Times, page A1). A steady stream of lackluster numbers from November's key economic indicators has analysts looking to the weakening job market for confirmation that the Federal Reserve Board's efforts to cool the economy are working as intended. ... Analysts say they expect to see the unemployment rate climb to between 4.25 and 4.5 percent by June 2001, perhaps relieving some of the pressure on the labor market to improve benefits and wages. "Productivity growth slowed to 3.8 percent in the third quarter -- and it is likely to be revised lower -- while labor costs were up," showing there is pressure on profits and a likelihood for a strong rise in inflation unless the labor market begins to loosen up, says a senior researcher at Northern Trust Co. in Chicago. ... "Consumers may face pressure from the higher energy costs, which could also be made worse by inflationary pressures resulting from a weakening dollar amid the political and economic uncertainty," he continued. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). New claims for benefits filed with state unemployment insurance agencies rose by 19,000 to a total of 358,000 for the week ended November 25, the Employment and Training Administration of the Department of Labor reports. The level of claims for the week was the highest in more than 2 years the agency says. The 4-week moving average of new claims climbed by 12,000 to 343,000. This total also was the highest since July 1998. Analysts said the latest UI claims data fit with other recent reports of an easy in the country's labor market. ETA attributed the increase to mounting layoffs in a wide range of industries -- including construction, manufacturing, and some service sectors (Daily Labor Report, page D-3)_For months, analysts have watched the nation's jobless rate hover near 3.9 percent, a 30-year low, and wondered when it would move higher. If a new batch of worrisome data is to be believed, that time may be drawing near. The Labor Department says first-time claims for unemployment benefits soared 19,000 last week, their sixth consecutive increase. The advance brought the measure to its highest level in more than 2 years. The data suggest the labor market, which has shown moderate signs of easing, may weaken significantly in coming months. Many analysts expect the jobless rate for October to increase to 4 percent, it not a bit higher, from September's 3.9 percent. A growing array of economists say the unemployment rate will hit 4.5 percent next year, translating into the loss of about 845,400 jobs. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). The Conference Board reports that the help-wanted advertising index rose only 1 percentage point in October, to 79 percent. The index has declined gradually since early this year. In October 1999, it stood at 86 percent. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-2). Personal income declined for the first time in nearly 2 years, and consumer spending inched ahead in October, sending the U.S. personal savings rate to a new low, the Commerce Department reports. Its Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that personal income slumped 0.2 percent in October. Economists, however, said the unexpected slump in income was no cause for alarm, noting that a reversal in one-time farm subsidy payments in September held down October's income gains. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-5; New York Times, page C7)_After scoring large gains in September, both personal income and consumer spending appeared weak last month. But analysts said the 2 months should b
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY LABOR REPORT, WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 29, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: In October, 200 metropolitan areas recorded unemployment rates below the U.S. average (3.6 percent not seasonally adjusted), while 124 areas registered higher rates. Thirty-five metropolitan areas had jobless rates below 2.0 percent, with 19 of these located in the Midwest, 8 in New England, and 7 in the South. Among the six areas with rates above 10.0 percent, four were in the West and two were in the South. ... Two California metropolitan areas with concentrations of high-tech workers --San Jose, the hub of Silicon Valley, and San Francisco -- were among the highest-paid workforces in the country in 1999, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. San Jose posted an annual average of $61,110 in overall pay. New York was second with an average of $52,351, followed by San Francisco with an average of $50,169. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Presidential politics and concerns about higher oil prices as the nation heads into the winter months trimmed consumer confidence in November, but not enough to dampen holiday spending, the Conference Board reports. ... The employment outlook turned less favorable, with only 15.0 percent of respondents expecting jobs to become more plentiful over the next 6 months, down from 18.6 percent a month earlier. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-10). Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods fell 5.5 percent in October, as demand for metals including steel dropped the most in nearly 2 years, the Commerce Department reported. The report said that last month's decline in orders for durable goods, items expected to last 3 or more years, was the first since a 13.2 percent decrease in July. Orders rose 2.4 percent in September. ... (New York Times, page C2). Statistics reinforce slowdown. Consumer optimism about the U.S. economy fell in November to the lowest level in more than a year. ... A separate report shows a 5.5 percent decline in October orders to factories for such durable goods as aircraft, furniture, and machinery. This underscores the fact that higher borrowing costs are injecting some caution into Americans' spending plans. The durable goods decline was the largest since July. ... (Washington Post, page E2)_Durable goods orders fell sharply in October, suggesting that business investment in new technology and machinery will cool in coming months. Separately, uncertainty over the presidential election took a bite out of consumer confidence, leaving it at its lowest level in more than a year. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2) The value of new construction contracts rose 3 percent in October, supported by strong increases in the building of offices and manufacturing plans that compensated for a slight falloff in residential and other types of construction, like sewers and power plans, according to F.W. Dodge, a building research division of publisher McGraw-Hill Cos. ... The Dodge index, a measure of national construction value, was at 187 in October compared with 182 the prior month. The index uses 1992 as a base year of 100. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). A new study of the Washington, D.C., area shows that, even as the region made significant strides in the 1990s as a home for innovative and entrepreneurial business, crucial aspects of the quality of life have worsened, and the gulf between rich and poor grew markedly wider. According to the Potomac Index, a series of numerical indicators measuring the successes and shortcomings of the region in five categories ... the household incomes of those at the top of the economic ladder have increased significantly in the past 7 years, while incomes actually fell slightly for those at the bottom rung. From 1993 to 1998, the income gap between the wealthiest 20 percent and the poorest 20 percent of households widened from a ratio of 3 to 1 to a ratio of 4 to 1. ... The index cost more than $100,000 to produce and was funded by the Chicago-based Somnenschein law firm, which has Washington, D.C., offices, the Morino Institute in Reston, which has served as an incubator for start-up tech firms, Anderson Consulting, and The Washington Post. ... (Washington Post, page E1). Amazon.com has come out swinging in its fight to stop a new unionization drive, telling employees that unions are a greedy, for-profit business and advising managers on ways to detect when a group of workers is trying to back a union. A section on Amazon's internal Web site gives supervisors antiunion material to pass on to employees, saying that unions mean strife and possible strikes and that, while unions are certain to charge expensive dues, they cannot guarantee improved wages or benefits. ... The Communications Workers of America has undertaken a campaign to unionize 400 customer-service representatives in Seattle, where Amazon is based. The United Food and Commercial Workers Union and the Prewitt Organizing Fund, an
Re: BLS Daily Report
I always appreciate Dave's posts -- a valuable service to us all, especially since the latest one has the Morgan Stanley forecast that agrees with my feeling that the odds for a recession are increasing. Here is the beginning of the article that I mentioned: Tech Equipment makers such as Lucent and Cisco Systems as creditors. Lucent Technologies has been a leader in this category, with about 5% of its sales last year coming from transactions it financed. The company's commitments to customers skyrocketed to $7 billion as of Sept. 30, of which about $1.6 billion is actually loaned, from $2.3 billion in commitments in September 1998. Rival financiers include Nortel Networks, which announced this week it would boost its financing for customer purchases to more than $2 billion by the end of next year, up from $1.1 billion at the end of 2000. Other lenders: Alcatel, Cisco Systems, Motorola and Qualcomm. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 30, 2000 U.S. economic growth slowed to 2.4 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter, revised down from the 2.7 percent estimated earlier, the Commerce Department reports. The real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced in the United States -- grew at its slowest pace since the third quarter of 1996, when GDP rose 2.0 percent. Economists had forecast the first estimate of third quarter GDP would be cut back based on inventory and trade data released since that initial report came out. They expect GDP in the October-December quarter to bounce back, although not to the steamy 6 percent rate of the past four quarters (Daily Labor Report, page D-1)_The U.S. economy grew at just a 2.4 percent annual rate in the July-September period, the slowest pace in 4 years. An unusual decline in federal government purchases of goods and services and smaller gains in business spending on new equipment and inventories were the primary reasons for the substantial drop from the second quarter's 5.6 percent growth rate. ... (Washington Post, page E1)_The economy expanded in the third quarter at the slowest pace in 4 years, holding down inflation and depressing corporate profits. ... (New York Times, page C13)_Will the first slowdown of the New Economy end in a soft landing or a rough one? More and more analysts are becoming a bit more bearish in their answer. The Commerce Department yesterday revised downward its estimate of third quarter gross domestic product growth. At the same time, several economists have been slicing their growth forecasts for the rest of this year, as well as for the opening months of 2001, to below 3 percent. If the estimates hold up, the nation's unemployment rate could increase substantially, throwing hundreds of thousands of Americans out of work. An economist at J.P. Morgan Co. now puts the odds of a significant slowdown at 30 to 35 percent over the next year. But an inflation gauge linked to the GDP report showed prices increasing at an annual rate of just 1.9 percent in the third quarter, down from a 2.4 percent pace in the second quarter and the smallest increase this year. Still, the economic strains are increasingly apparent. Energy and labor costs continue to increase, threatening to push prices higher in coming months. The global economy is slowing and most currencies continue to fall against the dollar, reducing demand for American exports. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). U.S. car and truck sales slowed in November to the weakest pace so far this year, analysts and industry officials say, as General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co., and DaimlerChrysler gave more ground to Japanese and European rivals. The expected poor November showing by Detroit's Big Three will likely mean further production cuts, temporarily idling thousands of workers or cutting the overtime that once swelled paychecks. The sales figures also will make auto makers likely to lower production levels in the first quarter of next year. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A3). Data compiled by the Bureau of National Affairs in the first 48 weeks of 2000 show a weighted average first-year wage increase in newly negotiated contracts of 3.8 percent. In the same period last year, the increase was 3.3 percent. Manufacturing settlements provided a weighted average increase of 3.2 percent, and the weighted average increase in nonmanufacturing agreements, excluding construction contracts, was 4 percent. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-12). For the last decade, corporate profit has paled next to the boom in companies' spending on new computers and software, industrial machinery, and buildings. With the help of bank loans, bonds, and, most of the time, a willing stock market, companies since 1991 have bought almost $9 trillion worth of equipment, lifting productivity and sustaining the longest economic expansion in American history. Now, however, that explosion in investment is showing broad signs of slowing. Corporate profits are falling in many industries, giving companies less money to spend. Banks have tightened their lending policies, raising the cost of money. And the swoon of technology stocks has forced the very companies that have made some of the most substantial investments in new equipment to reconsider how they operate. With consumer confidence falling at the same time, analysts say the moderation in capital spending has raised the odds that the economy will markedly slow next year. Some see an increased risk of recession, says the New York Times. ... (page C1). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 28, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: Average annual pay of employees within the nation's 316 metropolitan areas increased by 4.4 percent from 1998 to 1999, according to preliminary data. The over-the-year gain was smaller than 1998's gain of 5.2 percent. Annual pay in metropolitan areas averaged $34,868 in 1999, up from $33,407 in 1998. ... Move to Washington State? That state saw average annual pay rise 8 percent last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, compared with a 4.3 percent increase for the nation. Alaska's 0.6 percent increase was the lowest. Hours worked and the mix of jobs contributed to the numbers (Wall Street Journal's "Work Week" feature, page A1). Contrary to popular opinion, the wage gap between men and women does not directly correlate with the existing level of gender wage discrimination, senior Federal Reserve economist Howard J. Wall concludes in a recent article in the October issue of "The Regional Economist" published quarterly by the St. Louis Fed. In 1999, women's median weekly earnings were 76.5 percent of men's -- a gap of 23.5 cents, according to Department of Labor figures, Wall said. Comparing hourly wages narrows the gender wage gap to 16.2 cents, according to a different set of BLS figures. A recent study attributes 62 percent of the hourly wage gap to factors other than discrimination, leaving only 6.2 cents -- or about one-fourth of the gap -- unexplained, Wall said. ... The lion's share of the gender wage gap arises from "differences between men and women in important determinants of earnings, such as number of hours worked, experience, training and occupation," Wall writes. "Moreover, even this one-fourth of the gap may have less to do with wage discrimination than with the accumulated effects of shorter hours and interrupted careers on women's earnings and promotion prospects," Wall writes. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-3). Home resales declined in October to the slowest pace in 3 months as cooler economic growth reduced buyer demand. Resales fell 3.9 percent last month, the National Association of Realtors said. ... (Washington Post, page E2)_Home resales declined in October to a pace that still keeps the industry on track for its second-best year on record. ... (New York Times, page E2)_Home sales declined for the second month in a row in October, surprising economists who had expected low mortgage rates to keep the housing market surging. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2) Job cuts at Internet companies rose 55 percent between October and November, according to job placement firm Challenger, Gray Christmas. Challenger said Internet job losses rose to 8,789 in November, the highest since it started keeping count in December 1999. The firm predicted that job cuts would continue over the next 2 months as more dot.com companies close (Washington Post, page E2)_Since January, over 30,000 jobs have been eliminated. ... (New York Times, page C4). More than 600,000 people a year miss at least one day of work due to injuries from repetitive stretching, bending, or typing, government statistics show. ... OSHA's new regulations, issued Nov. 13, include how much employees should type or use a mouse in a day and how many pounds they should lift. The new regs mark the first time OSHA has defined repetitive stress as a hazard and ordered employers to take corrective measures. The rules, which go into effect on Jan. 16, 2001, cover all 102 million workers not employed in agriculture, construction, railroads, or maritime industries. ... In the long run, the regulations -- although opposed by some employers -- are likely to do more good than harm, for companies and workers alike, says Business Week (Dec. 4, page 90). About 40 percent of the workforce is at companies, mostly large employers, that are already in compliance with the rules, OSHA estimates. In fact, company efforts have cut RSI cases by 15 percent since 1998, according to BLS. ... Prescription drug costs to employers for employee health plans are expected to rise 19.9 percent next year, says a survey of insurers and health plan administrators by Buck Consultants Inc., New York. The rise reflects rising prices, increased use, and other factors (Wall Street Journal's "Work Week" feature, page A1). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment: October 2000 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 2000: Today's News Release: "Extended Mass Layoffs in the Third Quarter of 2000" indicates that in the third quarter of 2000, there were 975 mass layoff actions by employers that resulted in the separation of 209,903 workers from their jobs for more than 30 days, according to preliminary figures. Both the total number of layoff events and the number of separations were lower than in July-September 1999, with events and separations at their lowest level for any third quarter period since 1995. If workers' incomes continue to grow at a rate of a 1 percent to 2 percent per year over the next several decades, the workers can use those increases to finance longer, more comfortable retirements, an economist tells a group of researchers at a hearing sponsored by the Senate Special Committee on Aging. The population of older Americans continues to grow, causing increases in the costs of pensions, Social Security, and health benefits. However, worker productivity is likely to keep pace with those costs, according to a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. Because more women are in the workforce, he says, the amount of time Americans between the ages of 25 and 54 spend at work has risen in the last 30 years. Women's average work hours have climbed from 13.6 hours per week in 1968 to 20.3 hours per week in 1998. 61.7 percent of women over the age of 16 are expected to be in the labor force by 2006, said the director of Portland State University's Institute on Aging. The increased work hours can help pay for shorter hours and longer retirements after age 55. However, she said between 1984 and 1994, the proportion of chronically disabled elderly Americans relying solely on family members for their care dropped from more than 50 percent to 40 percent (Daily Labor Report, page A-10). The U.S.trade deficit in goods and services surged 15 percent to set a new record of $34.3 billion in September, as imports rose while exports fell, the Commerce Department says. Total imports rose 3.2 percent to a record $126.6 billion. Exports, by contrast, declined 0.7 percent to $92.4 billion, their second highest level on record. The chief economist with Standard Poor's said some of the deterioration in September reflects a better-than-expected improvement in August. The deficit that month narrowed by 6 percent, to $29.8 billion. The Commerce Undersecretary said the U.S trade deficit has increased with all of the world's regions. Trade with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has accounted for about 25 percent of the year-to-date deterioration in our deficit in goods, due to a surge in oil prices (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). __The U.S. trade deficit surged to a record $34.3 billion in September, as Americans' appetite for cars, clothes and other foreign goods hit an all-time high while exports shrank slightly So far this year, the trade deficit is running at an annual rate of $360 billion, far above the record of $265 billion set last year (The Washington Post, page E3). __Imports surged, exports slipped, and the United States trade deficit widened sharply to a record in September, raising fears that the economy is slowing faster than expected and that the robust dollar may come under pressure. Some economists have begun to wonder whether the combination of the large deficit and a dollar that has strengthened sharply against most major currencies all year raises the risk of a "hard landing" (Joseph Kahn in The New York Times, page C11). __The trade deficit exploded to a record in September, as Americans continued to soak up imported goods and U.S. exporters were hurt by damped economic growth overseas. The gap between exports and imports hit $34.3 billion, almost 13 percent wider than economists had expected for the month, and 15 percent larger than the revised $29.8 billion deficit posted in August, the Commerce Department reports (Michael M. Phillips in The Wall Street Journal, page A2. The Journal's page 1 graph is of gross domestic product, 1995 to the present). Natural gas prices rose more than 4 percent, reaching a record for the second straight session, as an early cold spell in the United States boosted demand for the heating fuel. Natural gas for December delivery rose 15.9 cents or 2.5 percent on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices were the highest in 10 years of trading. Gas prices are up 43 percent this month, and have almost tripled from a year ago (The Washington Post, page E2). __Starting next year, the optional standard rate allowed for business use of a car will rise to 34.5 cents a mile, up about 6 percent from 32.5 cents this year. This rate is used to figure tax deductions for business travel as an alternative to deducting your actual costs. The standard rate for use of your car
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: Regional and state unemployment rates were stable in October. All four regions posted virtually no change over the month, and 41 states and the District of Columbia recorded shifts of 0.3 percentage point or less. The national jobless rate was unchanged from September at 3.9 percent. Nonfarm employment increased in 33 states and the District of Columbia in October. ... The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, in its biannual economic survey, predicts that gross domestic product will grow by a cumulative 4.3 percent this year across member countries. OECD says this growth rate will slow to a more modest 3.3 percent in 2001 before bottoming out at 3.1 percent in 2002. The U.S. economy, which has led the world in economic growth for much of the past decade, will finally achieve the "soft landing" that the OECD has been calling for, with economic growth cooling considerably, according to the organization's report. ... Unemployment, which is predicted to be about 4 percent this year, will rise gradually in 2001 to 4.2 percent before reaching 4.5 percent in 2002. Similarly, inflation, estimated at 2.1 percent in 2000, will creep upward to 2.2 percent in 2001 and 2.3 percent in 2002, OECD says. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-8; Washington Post, page E2)_In its 6-month review of the economy, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development says it expects growth to remain solid for the next 2 years, but warns that high oil prices could cloud the outlook. The report also says the Federal Reserve Board might need to raise interest rates another half-point to keep U.S. inflation in check. ... (New York Times, page C2). The New York Times profiles a family on page A22 that it describes as "an average American family in nearly every way, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics". There are two children, both parents work, and they earned about $40,000 combined last year, slightly more than the year before. The television set is new, and the miles are their cars are piling up. They have no health insurance and do not own a house. The biggest difference between them and millions of other working families is their occupation. "Trapeze artists," their tax forms read. Auto sales, often a leading indicator of the economy's health, have slowed since the beginning of the month, prompting carmakers to increase their already deep discounts and to consider additional temporary closings of factories, industry officials said today. General Motors and the Chrysler unit of DaimlerChrysler have already closed some factories for a week at a time and appear likely to announce further temporary closings soon. Ford Motor has avoided closing factories so far, except because of parts shortages, but its officials have been warning that the entire industry is slowing. And even foreign automakers are seeing some weakness in sales and have been offering many discounts. ... (New York Times, page C1). As high-tech jobs go oversees, unions see an opportunity, says the "Work Week" column of The Wall Street Journal (page A1). Nervous U.S. workers often turn to organized labor. "Services will go global, much the way manufacturing did," says the CEO of Talisma Corp., a Kirkland, Wash., firm that outsources customer service functions to Bangalore, India. "Without any organization, there's no question it's going to happen," he says. Companies that provide more stock-based incentive compensation to employees also tend to deliver higher shareholder return, says a survey of 173 companies over 5 years by Hewitt Associations LLC, a Lincolnshire, Ill., consulting concern (Wall Street Journal's "Work Week" feature, page A1). Despite the vibrant economy, few people receive sizable raises these days, concludes a survey by Fortune Personnel Consultants in New York. Nearly 75 percent of 631 employees from various industries said they received less than a 10 percent pay increase over the previous year. Among those employees, 37 percent received less than 5 percent, while 34.6 percent received between 5 and 9 percent. Survey participants had at least a college degree and made at least $50,000 annually. Gen-Xers fared the best. Among employees at companies with fewer than 100 staffers, 41 percent received no raise -- compared with only 12.7 percent of those working at concerns employing 10,000 or more (Wall Street Journal's "Career Journal," page B18). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Extended Mass Layoffs in the Third Quarter of 2000 application/ms-tnef
Re: BLS Daily Report
At 11:06 AM 11/22/00 -0500, you wrote: The New York Times profiles a family on page A22 that it describes as "an average American family in nearly every way, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics". There are two children, both parents work, and they earned about $40,000 combined last year, slightly more than the year before. The television set is new, and the miles are their cars are piling up. They have no health insurance and do not own a house. The biggest difference between them and millions of other working families is their occupation. "Trapeze artists," their tax forms read. aren't all working people trapeze artists, in a way? Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
Re: BLS Daily Report
[EMAIL PROTECTED] 11/22/00 11:48AM aren't all working people trapeze artists, in a way? ((( CB: I know balancing my budget has been quite an act for years.
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: The average annual pay of all workers covered by state and federal unemployment insurance (UI) programs rose 4.3 percent to $33,313 in 1999, according to preliminary data. This compares with a 5.2 percent rise in 1998. The annual pay of private industry workers, comprising 84.7 percent of the nation's employment, grew 4.6 percent in 1999, while pay for government workers rose 2.7 percent. In 1998, the increase in pay for private sector workers was 5.6 percent and for government workers, 3.2 percent. ... __Subsiding energy prices curbed overall inflation last month, as the CPI-U rose just 0.2 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The October advance was smaller than many analysts had predicted, and some say it means the worst is over on energy prices. ... Over the year ended in October, the CPI-U is up by 3.4 percent, an acceleration from the 2.7 percent for all of 1999. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1).. __Consumer prices rose a moderate 0.2 percent last month, as energy prices showed little change after their surge the month before. Over the past 12 months, the CPI has risen 3.4 percent, with 0.8 percentage point of that increase due to energy prices going up much faster than those of other goods and services included in the CPI's marketbasket of items Americans buy. ... (John M. Berry in Washington Post, page E3). __Consumers paid only slightly more for goods last moth than they had in September, but inflation is still headed for its largest annual increase since 1990. ... Over the last 12 months, average weekly wages have actually fallen 0.2 percent, when adjusted for inflation, BLS said in a separate announcement. The wage numbers covered production and nonsupervisory employees, who make up about 80 percent of the work force and now earn an average annual salary of about $25,000. ... One disconcerting item in the inflation column: Natural gas prices keep rising.. ... "Natural gas prices have gone through the roof this year," said Patrick C. Jackman, an economist at BLS. ... (David Leonhardt in New York Times, page C12). __After years of dormancy, inflation seems to be stirring. Consumer prices have advanced at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.6 percent so far this year, far higher than a 2.7 percent increase seen for all of last year. Core prices, which exclude the volatile energy and food sectors, rose at an annual rate of 2.7 percent in the first 10 months, compared with a gain of just 1.9 percent for the entire year last year. ... To be sure, inflation remains tame by historical standards. Import prices are still falling, thanks to the strong dollar, wholesale prices have been stable, and massive gains in work-force productivity have helped many companies absorb higher energy and labor costs without having to boost their prices accordingly. ... (Yochi J. Dreazen in Wall Street Journal, page A2). Real average weekly earnings were unchanged between September and October as average wage increases were offset by decreases in the number of hours worked and a slight increase in the cost of consumer goods [sic], BLS says. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-14). Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits filed with state agencies decreased by 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 326,000 in the week ended Nov. 11, the Employment and Training Administration announces. State officials in Michigan attributed their large increase to layoffs in the auto industry, while California officials blamed their increase on layoffs in the construction and trade industries and in agriculture. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-18). Growth in the U.S. economy likely will slow into the fourth quarter of this year, but gross domestic product growth should stay solid at 3.6 percent for 2001, University of Michigan economists predict at their annual outlook conference. They expect inflation to subside somewhat, as tight labor markets keep pressure on wages next year. ... The forecast projects a 3.8 percent GDP growth for 2002. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-2). Even affluent families may have a hard time saving enough to pay for their children's college education and their own retirement, says a study by four economists -- including Laura Tyson and Joseph Stiglitz, former chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers -- for UPromise, a college savings network. If recent trends continue, the average annual tuition bill at a 4-year college will be more than $31,000 in 2020. But nearly two-thirds of parents with children younger than 18 failed to save any money in 1998. Inadequate savings force many families to finance college costs with extra jobs, retirement funds, or second mortgages (USA Today, page 1B). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: CPI -- The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, following a 0.5 percent increase in September. Deceleration in the energy index -- up 0.2 percent in October, following a 3.8 percent rise in September -- was largely responsible for the moderation in the October CPI-U. In October, the index for petroleum-based energy declined 1.2 percent, while the index for energy services increased 1.5 percent. The food index, which increased 0.2 percent in September, rose 0.1 percent in October. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.2 percent, following a 0.3 percent rise in September. A smaller increase in apparel prices and a downturn in the tobacco index were principally responsible for the more moderate advance in October. ... REAL EARNINGS -- Real average weekly earnings were essentially unchanged between September and October after seasonal adjustment. A 0.4 percent increase in average hourly earnings was offset by a 0.3 percent decline in average weekly hours and a 0.1 percent rise in the CPI-W. ... Real average weekly earnings fell by 0.2 percent from October 1999 to October 2000. ... BLS reports labor productivity increased in more than three-fourths of 119 U.S. manufacturing industries in 1998. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-11). American industrial output weakened in October and businesses grew cautious about stockpiling goods, according to two reports, adding to signs of a gradually cooling economy. The Federal Reserve's monthly report on industrial production showed that output by mines, factories, and utilities fell 0.1 percent last month after an upwardly revised gain of 0.4 percent in September. It was the first drop in monthly output since a 0.2 percent fall in July, and only the second since the beginning of 1999. Manufacturing stalled while the output at utilities fell. The second report, from the Commerce Department, showed that business inventories in September were growing at their slowest pace in nearly 2 years. Production to build inventories is generally a source of economic strength, unless faltering sales cause an oversupply that forces sharp cutbacks. ... (New York Times, page C6; Wall Street Journal, page A2)_Declines in the output of automobile products and household appliances pushed industrial production down 0.1 percent in October. The decline was the second in the last 4 months, although production remained 5.2 percent higher than a year ago and was 46.3 percent above its 1992 average. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Federal Reserve officials, increasingly convinced that U.S. economic growth has slowed to a sustainable pace that does not threaten to make inflation worse, decided to leave interest rates unchanged. The Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank's top policymaking group, also left in place its assessment that the risk of inflation accelerating in the future continues to outweigh the possibility that growth could slow very sharply, or that the economy could tip into a recession. ... (Washington Post, page E1)_Citing clear evidence that the economy has shifted into a lower gear, the Federal Reserve voted to hold interest rates steady, but with unemployment low and energy prices high the central bank said it was not yet ready to proclaim that inflation was no longer a threat. ... (New York Times, page C1)_The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, but disappointed investors by dismissing growing concerns that the economy is slowing too much and declaring that inflation -- not recession -- remains the greater danger. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2) A majority of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics expect the U.S. economy to slip into a sustainable pace of expansion through next year. .. A soft landing is in progress, and inflation will moderate next year as energy price pressures fall back. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-7). The female-male pay gap varies greatly on a state-by-state basis, according to a new analysis by the Institute for Women's Policy Research. Using federal government statistics and other data, the report analyzes and ranks women's state-by-state status in employment and earnings, as well as "economic autonomy" -- a composite index, based on college education, business ownership, poverty, and health insurance coverage; political participation; and health status/reproduction rights. In terms of pay, the report finds that women earned the highest percentage of men's wages in the District of Columbia, 86 cents for every dollar earned by men, followed by Hawaii, 84 cents, and Maryland and New York, each 80 cents. The lowest earnings ratio was in Wyoming, at 63 cents, followed by Louisiana and Utah, 65 cents each, and Indiana, 67 cents. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-5). Another study
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: Labor productivity rose in 1998 in more than three-fourths of 119 U.S. manufacturing industries. More than two-thirds of the industries registering productivity growth also posted declines in unit labor costs. ... In 1998, the most recent year for which underlying data are available for manufacturing industries, labor productivity -- defined as output per hour -- increased in 76 percent of the manufacturing industries. Output rose in 77 percent of the industries, while hours rose in 45 percent of the industries. ... The share of industries with productivity increases during the 1990-98 period was even greater. From 1990 to 1998, labor productivity increased in 93 percent of the manufacturing industries. Output rose in 87 percent of the industries, while hours rose in 47 percent of the industries. ... The proportion of workers employed full time for the entire year climbed to 65.9 percent during 1999, the highest level recorded since the data have been collected, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. ... The proportion of minorities employed during 1999 rose at a much faster rate than the proportion of whites that was employed, although minority unemployment rates remain higher than the unemployment rate for whites. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-7). Despite evidence of slower growth across the U.S. economy, key labor market measures pulled together in the Wage Trend Indicator suggest wage pressures will remain strong into next year, according to the latest report released by the Bureau of National Affairs. ... Labor shortages are likely to make it hard for many companies to hire workers over the next few months, the WTI report suggests. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). The Commerce Department says retail sales rose just 0.1 percent in October, held down by a decline in auto sales. Taking out the auto sector, retail sales rose 0.4 percent. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-4)_Sales at retail stores edged up 0.1 percent in October after a sizzling 0.9 percent jump the month before. It was the weakest showing since August, when sales were dampened by a 1 percent drop in purchases of autos. But sales at hardware stores and building supply centers rose a strong 1.6 percent, after falling 1.5 percent in September. ... (Washington Post, page E2; New York Times, page C4)_Retail sales slowed sharply in October, further indicating that economic growth has decelerated and that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged when it meets today. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). A prominent Congressional commission appointed to study the giant American trade deficit determined that the imbalance has become unsustainably large and dangerous for the economy, but mostly disagreed on what to do about it. The assessment by the 12-member commission, split equally among experts appointed by Democrats and Republicans, reflects growing concern about the gap between what America sells abroad and what it imports from other nations has grown too large, from about $30 billion in 1991 to an estimated 450 billion this year, posing a risk to the record-setting economic expansion and the strength of the dollar. ... (The New York Times, page C2)_The bipartisan 12-member commission issued a report warning that growing trade deficits will have to eventually come down but failing to reach any common ground on how labor and environmental issues should be treated in future trade negotiations. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-5). Small businesses appear to be nervous about the economy, says The Wall Street Journal (page B17). Despite continued strong business this fall, companies are scaling back on hiring, inventory building, and capital spending plans, according to the National Federation of Independent Business's monthly survey of small-business optimism in October. The NFIB is the nation's largest small-business lobbying group, with about 500,000 members. Business owners polled who believe it is a good time to expand fell to 16 percent, lowest in 4 years and down from a record high of 28 percent in December. On average in 1998 and 1999, the figure was 23 percent. ... Over the past year, economists and economic policymakers have been talking up the likelihood of a soft landing, in which overheated economic growth would slow -- but not anywhere near enough to cause an economy-shrinking recession. The burst in the dot-com bubble, the slowing of job growth, the decline in the stock market -- all these were said to be consistent with the much hoped for soft landing. But in recent weeks, some analysts have turned up the volume on warnings that the landing may be a bit bumpier than first thought. While recession is still considered unlikely, there is growing fear that the economy may overshoot the runway. ... The economic risks in the coming months include another sharp drop in stock prices, another spike in oil prices
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: A total of 147.5 million persons worked at some point during 1999, an increase of about 2.7 million persons from the prior year, according to the annual survey of work experience. The number of individuals who experienced some unemployment during the year continued to decline. About 13 million individuals were in this category in 1999, down about 1 million from 1998. ... The Wall Street Journal's feature "Tracking the Economy" (page A6) shows the Thomson Global Forecast for the October Consumer Price Index figure, scheduled to be released Thursday, to be for an increase of 0.2 percent in contrast to last month's 0.5 percent. The core rate is forecast to be up 0.2 percent also, after rising 0.3 percent in September. Prescription drugs accounted for 44 percent of the increase in health costs last year, researchers said today. In a report published by the Journal of Health Affairs, the researchers said overall health costs for services covered by private insurance rose by 6.6 percent last year, while drug spending increased by 18.4 percent. The study did not separately examine costs for people without insurance. An author of the report said prescription drugs accounted for more of the 6.6 percent increase in health costs than either hospital care or doctors services. ... Inflation is back, after several years of low growth in health insurance premiums, he, a former director of health care studies at the Congressional Budget Office, said. Higher premiums mean higher costs for employers and, in many cases, for employees, he said. ... (New York Times, page A12). The Occupational Safety and Health Administration releases its final ergonomics program standard and publishes the rule in the November 14 "Federal Register". Labor unions greet the announcement of the final rule, while industry representatives vow to block it in court. OSHA Administrator Charles N. Jeffress says the rule "establishes concrete, objective guidance for employers to help them determine when they need to take further action and when they've fulfilled their obligation to resolve problems in their workplaces." According to OSHA, the rule will "spare 460,000 workers painful injuries and save an average of $9.1 million each year." The new ergonomics standard does not apply to construction, maritime, agriculture, or railroad industries. However, it covers all general industry employers and 6.1 million general industry worksites with more than 102 million workers. OSHA claims that about 60 million of these worksites do not address ergonomics, which puts workers at risk for injuries such as carpal tunnel syndrome and other musculoskeletal disorders. ... (Daily Labor Report, page AA-1; Washington Post, page E1; Wall Street Journal, page A4; Washington Times, Nov. 12, page C3). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Productivity and Costs: Manufacturing Industries, 1990-98 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, NOVEMBER 13, 2000 __A softening of energy prices dampened inflation at the wholesale level in October, as the producer price index for finished goods rose 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted, according to figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Last month's advance was less than half the 0.9 percent shown in September, and virtually all of the deceleration came in energy goods prices. Analysts say the PPI figures fit in with other economic reports of slower growth, particularly in the manufacturing sector. "Looking at the PPI figures on a year-over-year basis, there is nothing to worry about on inflation," says an economist of the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. The PPI advanced by 3.6 percent over the year ended in October, boosted mainly by a 19.4 percent jump in energy prices. ... The so-called core rate of inflation -- the PPI minus the volatile energy and food components -- was up a modest 1.0 percent between October 1999 and October 2000. Forecasters said the Federal Reserve is likely to focus on the core rate, especially as the ups and downs of energy prices have made the overall index more volatile this year. ... (Pam Ginsbach in Daily Labor Report, page D-1). __Inflation at the producer level remained contained last month, analysts said, after studying a government report that showed sharp increases in food and energy prices but lower prices for most other finished good. ... Several analysts said the figures did not indicate that the nation's overall inflation situation was about to get worse. In particular, they pointed to the fact that the core PPI is now only 1 percent higher than it was in October 1999. ... Meanwhile, new claims for unemployment benefits shot up by 35,000 last week, to 344,000, because of temporary layoffs in the auto industry. ... (John M. Berry in Washington Post, Nov. 10, page E4). __Prices paid to manufacturers, farmers, and other producers moderated in October, indicating that inflation remained in check. ... The core rate declined for the third time since last November, following a September increase of 0.3 percent. ... A separate report from the Labor Department showed that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits jumped 35,000 to 344,000, the highest in almost 2 years. The increase was mostly a result of temporary dismissals by automakers which closed factories to help reduce inventories. Jobless claims have averaged about 313,000 a week the last 3 months, and the four-week average for initial claims -- while higher last week -- barely exceeded that level, which suggests little change in the availability of workers. ... (Bloomberg News in New York Times, Nov. 10, page C2). __The inflation picture grew murkier with the release of new data showing that "core" wholesale prices, which exclude the volatile food and energy categories, fell unexpectedly in October, even as a broader measure of wholesale prices edged higher. ... The news was even more positive further back in the production pipeline, as prices for nonfood or energy materials showed few signs of increasing. ... In a separate report, the Labor Department said that the number of Americans filing new claims for state unemployment benefits soared 35,000 last week, to bring the measure to its highest level since early January 1999. ... (Yochi J. Dreazen in The Wall Street Journal, page A2). New claims filed with state agencies for unemployment insurance benefits increased by 35,000 to a seasonally adjusted total of 344,000 during the week ended Nov. 4, the Labor Department's Employment and Training Administration reports. Analysts said recent industry reports suggest the rise in claims to be due, in part, to temporary layoffs in some manufacturing sectors, especially autos. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-10). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Work Experience of the Population in 1999 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 9, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods rose 0.4 percent in October, seasonally adjusted. This index increased 0.9 percent in September and declined 0.2 percent in August. The index for finished goods other than foods and energy edged down 0.1 percent in October, after rising 0.3 percent in the prior month. Prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods increased 0.2 percent, following a 0.7 percent advance a month earlier. The crude goods index rose 3.4 percent, after jumping 5.3 percent in September. ... October's slower rate of increase in the index for finished goods was primarily due to smaller price increases for finished energy goods. ... __A turnaround in world oil prices resulted in a 0.5 percent decrease in prices of all goods imported into the United States during October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. It was the first time since April that import prices declined. Over the year ended in October, import prices were up 5.5 percent, an acceleration from the 3.9 percent shown for the comparable 1998-99 period. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). __Prices of imported goods declined in October for the first time in 6 months, as costs fell for petroleum and machinery including computers and semiconductors. The import price index, a gauge of the cost of imported goods and raw materials, fell 0.5 percent last month after rising a revised 1.2 percent in September. ... A separate report from the Commerce Department showed wholesale inventories grew in September at the slowest pace in almost a year and a half, as sales increased more than expected. ... (Bloomberg News, New York Times, page C9). __Americans got some good news about the economy as a strong dollar and falling oil prices sent import prices lower in October for the first time in 6 months. Import prices had climbed 1.2 percent in September, but a 3.2 percent decline in the price of petroleum imports and the continued strength of the U.S. dollar helped push prices down by 0.5 percent last month. ... The report also offered a vivid picture of the impact of the euro's continued slide against the dollar. Prices of goods imported from European Union countries such as Germany fell 0.9 percent last month, the steepest decline since March 1997. The cost of goods imported from Japan, in contrast, inched up 0.1 percent, the first increase in 3 months. ... (Yochi J. Dreazen in Wall Street Journal, page A2). Wholesale inventories grew in September at their slowest pace since April 1999, as sales increased more than expected. Inventories rose 0.2 percent after rising 0.6 percent in August, the Commerce Department said. Sales at the nation's wholesalers increased 0.7 percent in September, after rising a revised 0.2 percent during August (Washington Post, page E2). Fewer look to change jobs despite a tight labor market, writes Kristen Gerencher in CBS.MarketWatch.com (Nov. 7). She says that companies' strategy of boosting pay and benefits to hold on to valued and scarce employees in a period of record-low unemployment seems to be paying off. Fewer wage-earning and salaried employees across many skill and pay levels are actively looking for work than 5 years ago, when the nation's economic boom began, according to a Labor Department study. The findings surprised leading labor economists because they contradict the popular believe that Americans are exploiting the strong economy by job hopping like never before. ... About 4.5 percent of 115 million U.S. workers engaged in job hunting over a 3-month period last year by writing resumes, calling employers, and soliciting leads from family and friends, the study found. That's down from 5 percent in 1997 and 5.6 percent in 1995, the only other times the Labor Department studied the issue. The economists who wrote the report emphasize that it's too early to draw long-term conclusions from the job-search data, particularly since it's only been measured in booming economic conditions. More research is needed to see how workers behave during less prosperous periods of a business cycle, says BLS economist Joseph Meisenheimer, the report's co-author. Yet it appears workers are finding the grass isn't always greener on another employer's side. ... Workers who didn't have health insurance or retirement plans were significantly more likely to look for new jobs than those who did, the report indicated. Young people aged 18 to 24 also were more apt to look, as were the highly educated and those who'd been at their current jobs for less than a year. ... [The study by Meisenheimer and Randy Ilg appeared in the September MLR.] Job cuts in October decreased 8 percent from September, according to the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray Christmas. The October job reductions totaled 43,799, compared with 47,687 in September, continuing a trend that has been in place all year. But the firm's chief executive said
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 8, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: The U.S. Import Price Index fell 0.5 percent in October. The decrease was attributable to a decline in petroleum import prices. The Export Price Index declined 0.1 percent in October. ... The number of working women between the ages of 18 and 62 enrolled in a pension or retirement plan with their current employer increased from 43 percent to 45 percent between 1989 and 1998, while the number of men in the same age group enrolled in retirement plans dropped from 53 percent to 52 percent, evidencing a narrowing of the "pension gender gap," according to the Employee Benefits Research Institute. Its study, "Women and Pensions: A Decade of Progress?," is based on the Federal Reserve's 1989 and 1998 survey of consumer finances. Authors Vickie L. Bajtelsmit and Nancy A. Jianakoplos, both EBRI fellows, found that 41 percent of families were covered by a pension plan in 1998 -- a rate that has been "gradually improving over time." ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-4). Uneven state standards cause serious gaps in child care in the U.S., says Sue Shellenbarger in The Wall Street Journal's "Work Family" feature (page B1). ... Gaping differences state-by-state in price, quality, and availability of child care often exceed the regional contrasts found in schools, universities, and medical care. ... Families in the U.S. have never been more susceptible to child-care risk. ... For the first time, both parents are working in a majority of married couple families. Also, the number of children in non-relative care, mainly outside their own homes, rose to 54 percent in 1995 from 51 percent in 1985. The trend is driven not only by mothers working, but also by families seeking social and educational experiences for preschoolers. ... For the first time in more than a decade, single mothers are more likely than married mothers to be employed, new government statistics show. ... Even more remarkable, economists say, is the increase in work among single mothers who have never been married. In 1993, 44 percent of them were employed. The figure shot up to 65 percent last year. ... The new numbers are from the Labor Department and the Census Bureau. ... Economists give several reasons for the increase in work among single mothers. The strong economy has created millions of jobs and improved the quality of low-wage jobs. Welfare recipients are now required to work under federal and state welfare laws, and states have sharply increased spending on child care. The federal government and the states have adopted policies of "make work pay," in a phrase used by proponents of such policies. As a result, many single mothers find they are financially better off if they take a job outside the home. Work has also become more attractive because of increases in the minimum wage and the earned income tax credit. ... Last year, the proportion of single mothers with jobs reached 71.5 percent, exceeding the 68 percent for married mothers. The figure for single mothers also exceeded that for married mothers in the late 1970s and early 1980s, but, in those years, married women were less likely to work outside the home. ... (New York Times, Nov. 5, page A22). The average starting salary for recent college graduates climbed in October to $37,268, up 2.3 percent from the same period last year, Internet job-listing service Jobtrak.com reports. The Los Angeles-based service, which is marketed to college career centers, says the total number of job openings for recent college graduates is up 3.9 percent since October 1999. ... The largest increase in the number of job openings for entry-level workers' jobs was in the education sector, which saw demand for teachers rise 39.4 percent above last year's levels. Salaries in the education sector were flat, however. Demand for college graduates in engineering jobs also was strong with the number of posted job openings growing 31.4 percent from last year. The average starting salary for engineers rose 3.9 percent. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-3). With unemployment at a 40-year low, why are blue-collar workers feeling so insecure? The answer, a recent Cornell University study asserts, has to do with globalization. The report, published in September, concluded that, even in good times, a significant number of employers use the threat of shutting down and moving offshore to prevent workers from organizing, says Kate L. Bronfenbrenner, director of labor education research at Cornell. ... Using survey information and documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act, the researcher said that employers facing a unionization movement typically rely on a combination of intimidation, bribes, and surveillance to aggressively oppose the efforts. ... (Business Week, Nov. 13, page 42D). The Association for Manufacturing Technology contends that much of the valu
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2000 The Administration signaled its willingness to resurrect an agreement on the fiscal year 2001 spending bill covering the departments of Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education (H.R. 4577) when Congress returns the week of November 13 for a lame-duck session. ... That set the Labor Department's discretionary spending level at slightly more than $12 billion, compared to $11.2 billion set for FY 2000, according to an agency analysis. The bulk of this spending is dedicated to employment and training activities. ... The Bureau of Labor Statistics would see an $18 million increase under the agreement, bringing its budget to $452 million. The agreement also funded President Clinton's request for a new office of disability policy within the Labor Department, providing $23 million for this effort (Daily Labor Report, page A-7). A Department of Labor publication seeks to help bridge the skills gap in the United States by spotlighting successful job-training practices for specific industries, according to the department. "Building Skills for the New Economy: Innovative Initiatives" includes highlights from DOL's National Skills Summit in April. ... It provides specific "how-to" and contact information on innovative training programs in the high-tech, financial services, health care, manufacturing, construction, and retail industries. It is available only online at the Labor Department's Web site, http://www.dot.gov (Daily Labor Report, page A-9). DUE OUT TOMORROW: U.S. Import and Export Prices Indexes -- October 2000 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, NOVEMBER 6, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: "2001 RELEASE SCHEDULE FOR BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS MAJOR ECONOMIC INDICATORS" includes the names, dates of release, and the release times for each scheduled BLS news release over the coming year. __The nation's private industry employers created only 137,000 new jobs in October, a substantially smaller number than the average for the first 8 months of this year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The civilian unemployment rate held steady at 3.9 percent last month, marking the 13th consecutive month that it has remained in the narrow range of 3.9 percent and 4.0 percent. Analysts say the modest October gain in nonfarm payroll employment, coupled with other aspects of the jobs report, provides another piece of convincing evidence that the economy has shifted to a moderate rate of expansion. Manufacturing remained weak, and some services industries added few if any jobs during October. Calling the report one of "moderate" growth, BLS Commissioner Katharine Abraham said the October employment gain was significantly lower than the average for earlier this year. ... (Pam Ginsbach in Daily Labor Report, page D-1; Commissioner's statement, page E-1). __The nation's unemployment rate remained at its 30-year low of 3.9 percent in October. But the report also provided further evidence that the U.S. economic growth has moderated. The report showed that unemployment among persons of Hispanic origin fell last month 0.6 percentage point to 5 percent, the lowest level since separate figures for the group were first calculated in 1973. Joblessness among adult women dipped to 3.4 percent from 3.5 percent, reaching the lowest level for women since 1953. Among the signs pointing to slower economic growth in the report was the modest increase in the number of workers on employers' payrolls, which rose by 137,000. The average monthly gain during the past 3 months -- not counting the layoff of temporary workers hired to conduct the decennial census -- has been only 150,000. That's down from an average of 190,000 in the first half of the year and from about 229,000 in 1999. In addition, the length of the average workweek at private firms ticked down by 6 minutes. ... (John M. Berry in Washington Post, Nov. 4, page E1). __The unemployment rate remained at a 30-year low last month, even as evidence mounted that the nation's economic growth is slowing. American companies [private] continue to add jobs, employing 117,000 more people in October than in September. But that increase was significantly lower than during the first half of this year or during the previous 3 years. Combined with other reports this week that showed falling consumer confidence and slowing growth in productivity and retail sales, the jobs data suggest that the Federal Reserve will almost certainly not raise interest rates at either of its two remaining meetings this year, economists said. ... Still, the 10-year economic boom, the longest in United States history, shows little evidence of ending. ... Construction companies gave the nation's payrolls the biggest lift last month, adding 34,000 jobs. The recent decline in mortgage rates and an unusually dry month of October probably increased the amount of homebuilding, said Thomas Nardone, head of the government division that compiles the employment report. ... (David Leonhardt in New York Times, Nov. 4, page B1). __The economic nirvana of rapid growth and poky inflation could soon give way to a period of slower growth and rising inflation. The unemployment rate remained at a 30-year low last month amid signs that the economy is slowing. Economists expressed some concern that the tight labor market may have begun driving up wages and benefits and that companies might end up boosting prices. Sharp increases in productivity get much of the credit for keeping inflation under wraps, but last week's report showed productivity growth slowing and labor costs rising. ... (Nicholas Kulish and Steve Liesman in Wall Street Journal, page A2). __Uneasy businesses avoid layoffs and keep labor pools filled. ... Friday's labor statistics saw the unemployment rate holding at its 30-year low of 3.9 percent, and other measurements signal little loosening in the labor market. The Federal Reserve's "beige book" survey last week reported that "labor markets remain stretched" nationwide. A monthly survey by the National Federation of Independent Business found that 32 percent of its members had job openings they couldn't fill in October, down only marginally from the record 35 percent set in August. What's going on? Economists say joblessness typically lags the economy, getting better for a while when the economy is cooling off. ... "It won't be until 6 months from the slowdown that unemployment will start to rise," says the chief economist at Tucker Anthony. "A lot of e
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2000: Today's News Release: "THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION; OCTOBER 2000" indicates that the unemployment rate held at 3.9 percent in October, and total nonfarm employment rose by 137,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Among the major industry divisions, construction had the largest over-the-month gain, adding 34,000 jobs. Employment was unchanged in manufacturing and little changed in services and retail trade. Average hourly earnings rose by 6 cents over the month. In an accompanying statement by Commissioner of Labor Statistics Katharine G. Abraham, Dr. Abraham indicated that the 3.9 percent unemployment rate was in the narrow 3.9 to 4.1 percent range that has prevailed for the past year. The rise in payroll employment was roughly in line with the September gain, but below the pace for the first 8 months of the year. Rapidly rising compensation costs outpaced productivity growth of 3.6 percent in the third quarter, causing unit labor costs to rise at their fastest pace since the second quarter of 1998, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Unit labor costs, which reflect changes in both hourly compensation and productivity, increased 2.5 percent during the third quarter in the nonfarm business sector, BLS says. Unit labor costs, which reflect changes in both hourly compensation and productivity, had declined 0.2 percent in the second quarter as productivity had jumped 6.1 percent. "A 6.4 percent increase in compensation costs is problematic. The Fed should be expected to be alarmed, though I don't think they're ready yet to push the panic button," says the chief economist at Northern Trust Co. in Chicago. He says he expects to see the third quarter's pattern of moderate productivity growth and sharp compensation growth continue "over the next few quarters," causing either profit growth to slow, or resulting in sharp compensation growth to continue "over the next few quarters," causing either profit growth to slow, or resulting in businesses passing on the extra labor costs to their consumers (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). __The remarkably strong gains in economic efficiency that have allowed the U.S. economy to grow rapidly without significant inflation continued in the July-through-September period, the Labor Department reported yesterday. Labor productivity -- the amount of goods and services produced for each hour worked -- rose at a 3.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter despite a sharp slowing of economic growth. In fact, the department said that productivity growth out-stripped production, with output rising at a 3 percent rate, while the number of hours worked fell at a 0.8 percent rate (John M. Berry, The Washington Post, page E1). __U.S. workers' productivity remained strong in the third quarter -- even stronger than economists expected -- but labor costs scooted ahead, raising some concerns about the future. The Labor Department said work force productivity, a measure of output for each hour worked, climbed at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.8 percent in the third quarter, significantly above predictions of a 3 percent growth rate. Still, the pace was far slower than the second quarter's 6.1 percent, which was revised up from 5.7 percent. The Conference Board's index of leading indicators was flat in September, following declines of 0.1 percent in August and 0.2 percent in July. The index is designed to predict the economy's path 6 months ahead, tracking 10 economic and financial statistics, from stock prices to orders for consumer goods. "The indicators continue to point toward a cooling in economic growth, said an economist with the Conference Board. Separately, the Department of Labor said initial claims for unemployment benefits were unchanged at 308,000 last week (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). The euro pared recent gains against the dollar to lose half a cent on news that U.S. workers were more productive in the third quarter than many economists had expected. The data halted a 5-day rally in the euro driven mainly by speculation that a cooling U.S. economy might no longer exert such a powerful pull on global capital. The euro has gained 5 percent in value against the dollar since hitting a record low last week of 82.28 cents (The Wall Street Journal, page C17). The index of leading economic indicators was unchanged in September, keeping up a string of flat readings or declines that had persisted since February, the Conference Board reports. Inflation-adjusted economic growth slowed to a 2.7 percent annual rate in the third quarter, after expanding at a 5.2 percent rate in the first half of the year (Daily Labor Report, page D-10). New claims for unemployment benefits for the week ended October 28 held steady at 308,000, the Labor Department's Employment and Training Administration reported November 2. The 4-week moving average or initial unemployment in
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: The preliminary seasonally-adjusted annual rates of productivity growth -- as measured by output per hour of all persons -- in the third quarter were: 3.2 percent in the business sector and 3.8 percent in the nonfarm business sector. In both the business and the nonfarm business sectors, productivity increases in the third quarter were smaller than those recorded in the second quarter of 2000 (as revised). In manufacturing, productivity increases in the third quarter were: 6.4 percent in manufacturing, 9.6 percent in durable goods manufacturing, and 2.0 percent in nondurable goods manufacturing. ... In an unusual look at job-search patterns among persons who already are employed, analysts at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, economists Joseph Meisenheimer and Randy Ilg, found that workers with higher levels of education and those without health insurance were among those most likely to have engaged in active job searches. BLS began to survey employed workers about their job search activity in the mid-1990s, just as the U.S. economic expansion started to pick up steam. Survey results showed that the job search rate among all employed wage and salary workers declined over the period from February 1995 to February 1999. "During this period of falling unemployment and rapid employment growth, the percent of employed wage and salary workers who had actively looked for a new job in the 3 months prior to the survey also declined, from 5.6 percent in February 1995 to 5.0 percent in February 1997 and 4.5 percent in February 1999," the two economists wrote in an article published by BLS in the September issue of the "Monthly Labor Review." ... Other topics covered in articles in the Review include teenagers' employment and contributions to family spending, low-paid women workers, and price index research priorities in the coming years (Daily Labor Report, page A-10; reprint of the article, page E-1). The economy continued to grow moderately during September and early October, but evidence that the pace of growth is slowing became stronger in several regions, the Federal Reserve reports. Such evidence was especially strong in the Philadelphia, Atlanta, Cleveland, Richmond, and Dallas districts, where manufacturing activity has slowed and higher fuel costs are pressuring corporate profits, the Fed said in its latest "beige book," or summary of economic conditions (Daily Labor Report, page D-1)_The U.S. economy grew at a moderate pace last month, but many parts of the country reported evidence of slowing activity in such key sectors as retail sales and housing. The Fed said its latest survey of business conditions around the country, compiled by its 12 regional banks, indicated "additional signs of slowing growth in some areas." The Fed said retail spending had softened in some parts of the country and the outlook was "a little less positive" for the tourism industry. There was also a slowdown in home sales and construction activity generally. ... (Washington Post, page E21)_The economy remains strong amid widespread signs of a mild slowdown. While the survey offered good news about inflation, two other reports appeared at odds with the beige book's assessment of the manufacturing and construction sectors, clouding the economic crystal ball. The Commerce Department reported that construction spending rose 2.4 percent in September, its sharpest gain in the past 10 months, amid strong demand for home remodeling, office buildings, and government projects. Construction of single family homes and apartments fell during the month. But the overall measure, which advanced by a strong 1.8 percent in August, seems to have recovered from some weakness earlier this year. ... The manufacturing sector continued to contract, according to the National Association of Purchasing Management. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2; Washington Post, page E2) The U.S. manufacturing sector continued its slowdown in October, according to new survey results by the National Association of Purchasing Management. The organization's purchasing managers' index declined 1.6 percentage points to 48.3 percent in October, marking the third consecutive monthly drop. When the index falls below 50 percent, it signals that business activity in manufacturing is contracting rather than expanding. The latest NAPM survey also showed that manufacturing employment declined again in October. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-2)_The once-dazzling U.S. expansion is turning into a two-speed economy. Consumers are continuing much of the robust buying that helped propel the good times for the past few years, but the nation's factories are slowing sharply. For the third month in a row, the NAPM index showed a decline in the pace of industry in October, as manufacturers reeled under the triple burden of higher interest ra
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: In September, 202 metropolitan areas reported unemployment rates below the U.S. average (3.8 percent, not seasonally adjusted), while 119 areas registered higher rates. Twenty-six metropolitan areas had rates below 2.0 percent, with 12 of these located in the Midwest, 7 in New England, and 6 in the South. Among the five areas with jobless rates over 10.0 percent, three were in the West and two were in the South. ... The number of mass layoff actions taken by employers in September grew to 936, a sharp increase from the 717 mass layoff events that occurred during the same period in 1999, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The layoffs involved 106,842 workers in September, up from 75,288 in September 1999. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-3). Mounting worries about energy prices, volatile stock markets, and an economic slowdown shook consumers' optimism in October, as the Conference Board reports its consumer confidence index fell 7.3 percentage points to its lowest level in a year. Although the confidence level is down, it could bounce back in the next couple of months, and it does not predict a sluggish holiday buying season, the director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center says. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-2)_Consumer confidence fell sharply in October to its lowest level in a year, a potentially worrisome sign for the approaching holiday retail season. ... A separate report from the Commerce Department showed that sales of new homes soared in September, by a surprising 9.2 percent to the highest level in 6 months, as cheaper mortgage rates encouraged buyers to lock in deals. ... (Washington Post, page E3; New York Times, page C8)_Consumers didn't need Halloween ghosts and goblins to spook them last month: Rising oil prices and falling stock prices were enough to shake their confidence. While the October consumer confidence index number is the lowest in the year, consumer sentiment still is running high in historical terms, and other data indicate the economy still is expanding at a robust pace, though not at its earlier breakneck speed. Sales of new homes jumped 9.2 percent during September. Home sales numbers swing sharply from month to month, but the residential real estate market remains strong. At the red-hot September pace, builders would have a hard time keeping up with demand. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2)_The consumer confidence index plummeted to its lowest level in a year in October, in what some analysts think might be just a temporary dip triggered by soaring oil prices and a sinking stock market. October was a turbulent month, marked by strife in Israel and an attack on an U.S. warship. Nervous commodity traders pushed crude oil prices above $36 a barrel briefly, and equally nervous investors pummeled the Dow Jones industrial average. ... (USA Today, page 2B). Whoever wins the White House Nov. 7 will inherit a U.S. economy that is still growing in the 10th year of a record expansion and is unlikely to head into a recession any time soon, analysts say. But inflation has turned up and there are hard-to-ignore trouble spots in the domestic and international arena. "Whenever the economy starts slowing, and there are potential shocks on the horizon, you have to worry about risks on the downside," says Robert Dederick, economic consultant with the Northern Trust Co. in Chicago. Heightened tensions in the Middle East, dampening effects of higher energy prices, slower business investment, and volatility in stock markets are among the concerns drawing the most attention, analysts say. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). The wage premium for a college degree has soared. In 1978, a college graduate's first job typically paid 35 percent more than a high school graduate's. Twenty years later, in 1999, the premium had grown to 80 percent. The most common explanation is that demand for educated workers is outstripping supply.. ... But the conclusion is probably unwarranted. That the relative earnings of college graduates are climbing does not mean that the demand for these workers must also be climbing, says Richard Rothstein in The New York Times (page A23). The ratio of college graduates' wages to high school graduates' wages can also increase when the pay of high school graduates declines. Indeed, the college wage premium can go up even if salaries of college graduates are falling, provided those of high school graduates fall even faster. Mostly that's what has happened. The growing premium results more from the declining pay of high school graduates than from salary trends for college graduates. Data from "The State of Working America," a compendium issued once every 2 years by the Economic Policy Institute, shows that the average entry wage for college graduates in 1999, adjusted for inflation, was only 8 percent higher than in 1979. This smal
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 31, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: In September 2000, there were 936 mass layoff actions by employers as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single establishment, and the number of workers involved totaled 106,842. The number of layoff events and initial claimants for unemployment insurance were the highest for the month of September since this series began in April 1995, due, in part, to a calendar effect (September 2000 contained 5 weeks that ended in the month compared with 4 weeks in each of the prior 4 Septembers.) From January through September 2000, the total number of layoff events (10,490) was slightly lower than in January-September 1999, while the total number of initial claims (1,188,580) was somewhat higher. ... Despite dot.com hype, stock options are a small part of compensation, says The Wall Street Journal's "Work Week" feature (page A1). A Bureau of Labor Statistics study found only 2.4 percent of all U.S. private employers offered their workers stock options last year. Such grants were most common among publicly traded companies in certain industries -- technology firms, durable-goods manufacturers, and wholesale and retail trades -- and executives were the most likely to take advantage of them. BLS said 5.3 percent of employees in publicly held companies and 19.6 percent of executives in such firms received stock options in 1999. ... A table in The Wall Street Journal (page B20) says that more companies offer stock options to employees below the senior executive level, according to a survey of 900 employers by WorldatWork. For example, 80 percent of companies offer stock options to those involved with information technology, 71 percent to those in sales, 76 percent of technical people, 55 percent of administrative workers, 21 percent of part-timers, and 4 percent of contract employees. __A large gain in federal farm subsidies boosted total personal income in September, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. Total personal income rose 1.1 percent including the farm subsidy payments. Without the payments, the gain was 0.4 percent. BEA figures showed that manufacturing wages and salaries declined 0.3 percent in September, the second straight month of decline. Factory payroll levels have declined in recent months, as shown by the employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). __Americans' incomes boosted by huge federal farm payments increased in September by the largest amount in 13 months, while consumer spending rose at the fastest pace since February. Spending, propelled by heavy demand for durable goods such as cars, was up 0.8 percent. Economists said the new report showed that, while the overall economy slowed sharply in the summer, the all important consumer sector still had plenty of strength. It was led by big gains in income that are helping consumers continue to buy with abandon, despite rising debt burdens and a weakening stock market. Both the income increase and the spending gain were well above expectations, and some analysts said they would translate into an upward revision in the gross domestic product, the economy's total output for the third quarter. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of total economic activity. ... (Washington Post, page E6). __Spending by the nation's consumers surged last month, and federal farm payments increased incomes, suggesting demand for goods will grow in the months ahead. Purchases of autos and more expensive gasoline led the 0.8 percent rise in personal spending in September, the biggest gain in 7 months, after a 0.5 percent increase in August. ... (New York Times, page C14). Uncle Sam drafts a GI bill for tech workers to draw talent, says The Wall Street Journal in its "Work Week" feature (page A1). With starting salaries for government computer jobs at least $12,000 a year below those in the private sector, federal agencies have struggled to meet their growing information technology needs. To address the problem, Congress last week approved $11.2 million to create a scholarship program for students pursuing information-security degrees. In return, they must work at federal agencies after graduation. Mandatory overtime appears to have increased relatively little, says The Wall Street Journal in its "Work Week" feature (page A1). An analysis of payroll statistics by the Employment Policy Foundation found that only about 20 percent of all full-time hourly workers put in any overtime, and they tend to be concentrated in certain industries, such as mining, construction, and transportation and communications services. Since 1989, overtime worked by this group increased only about an average of one hour a week, says the EPF, an employer-funded research group in Washington. But while the extra work may not be mo
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, OCTOBER 30, 2000 This week's forecasts from "Tracking the Economy," Wall Street Journal (page A6) -- Third-quarter nonfarm productivity -- up 3.0 percent (due out Thursday) Unit labor costs -- up 1.9 percent October nonfarm payrolls -- up 198,000 (due out Friday) Unemployment rate -- 4.0 percent Average weekly earnings -- up 0.3 percent __U.S. economic growth slowed sharply in the third quarter to a 2.7 percent annual rate as the federal government and businesses cut back spending, the Commerce Department said. Residential construction also fell, but exports rose smartly and consumer spending bounced back, analysts noted. Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced in this country -- advanced at the slowest rate since the second quarter of 1999, when GDP rose 2.5 percent. Economists had widely expected a third-quarter slowdown, but the consensus was for GDP to grow at a 3.5 percent rate. Still, economists said the slowdown was desirable from the Federal Reserve's perspective and not a harbinger of recession. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). __The nation's once-soaring economy is finally beginning to lose altitude but doesn't appear to be heading for a nose dive in the coming months. The U.S. economy expanded at a 2.7% annual pace in the third quarter, less than half the previous quarter's 5.6% rate and the slowest growth since the second-quarter of 1999. The moderate increase in gross domestic product --the broadest measure of the economy's health -- reflected slower government spending, home construction, and business investment. The numbers, which came in below analysts' expectations of a 3.5% growth rate, all but guarantee that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady for the foreseeable future. ... Consumer spending accelerated, gaining 4.5% in the third quarter after rising 3.1% in the second quarter. With the job market tight and consumer confidence high, many analysts expect spending to be even stronger in the waning months of the year as Americans do their holiday shopping. In a separate report Friday, for example, the University of Michigan said its survey of consumer sentiment fell slightly in October, to 105.8 from 106.8 in September, but it remains strong by historical standards. With consumers spending freely, meanwhile, the nation's savings rate fell from 0.3% to a negative 0.2%, the lowest level on record. Inflation, meanwhile, remains under wraps. Despite soaring energy costs, a GDP price index that Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan often cites as the best measure of consumer inflation rose at an annual rate of just 2.2% in the quarter, virtually unchanged from a 2.1% rate in the second quarter. Excluding energy and food prices, which tend to fluctuate wildly, the measure advanced at a 1.5% pace in the third quarter, compared with a 1.4% rate in the second quarter. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). __The pace of economic activity slowed sharply in the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported, as higher interest rates took their toll on growth. But in these boom times, even a relatively modest increase in the nation's gross domestic product, at an annual rate of 2.7 percent, is still healthy growth, and the numbers suggest that the dip might only be temporary. Government outlays dropped, particularly as census takers left the payroll, and retailers sold stockpiled merchandise. ... (New York Times, Oct. 28, page A1). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Mass Layoffs in September 2000 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2000 __Wages paid by private industry employers rose 4.1 percent over the year ended in September, but benefits costs jumped 6.0 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Driven mainly by higher health insurance costs, the rise in benefit costs was the highest since a 6.3 percent hike over the year ended in the spring quarter of 1992. Total compensation costs -- wages and benefits combined -- were up 4.6 percent over the year ended in September, the same as shown for 12-month periods in each quarter of this year. ... Most analysts took the latest unemployment cost index report as confirmation that total compensation costs have not accelerated from earlier this year, which they say is reassuring to policymakers worried about inflation. ... (Pam Ginsbach in Daily Report, page D-1). __Even with soaring prices for gasoline and home heating oil, U.S. workers' wages are rising faster than the prices they pay for goods and services. The employment cost index, a broad measure of changes in workers' wages and benefits, rose 0.9 percent for the 3-months that ended in September, down from an increase of 1 percent in the previous quarter and 1.4 percent in the first 3 months of the year. For the year ended in September, the ECI rose 4.3 percent, down slightly from the increase for the 12 months ended in June. Over the past year, the wage and salary component of the ECI rose 4 percent while the CPI was up 3.7 percent. The good news for workers was also welcomed by economists. The ECI increase last quarter was less than expected, signaling that employers' labor costs are not adding to inflationary pressures despite continued very tight labor markets. ... (John M. Berry in Washington Post, page E1). __Labor expenses for businesses showed the smallest gain in a year in the third quarter, suggesting that the 30-year low unemployment rate was not stoking inflation. ... The third-quarter increase was the smallest since a 0.8 percent rise in the third quarter of 1999. While companies still paid 4.3 percent more than they did a year ago for workers' wages and benefits, the report suggests companies are under diminishing pressure to raise consumer prices. Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, and other central bankers have cited as one benefit of the record 9-year expansion the ability of companies to produce more with less labor thanks to technological gains. "With labor cost rises tame and productivity growth ample, profit margins seem less threatened from this source than from nonlabor costs" like energy, said a senior economist at Banc of America Securities in New York. ... (Bloomberg News in New York Times, page C2). __Inflation watchers got some good news with the announcement that growth in labor costs slowed a bit in the third quarter, through longer-term trends still leave room for concern. With the unemployment rate at a 30-year low now, Federal Reserve policy makers have been worried about the possible inflationary impact of a tight labor market. But the latest report shows that employment pressures have yet to translate into significant increases in labor costs. ... The question is whether productivity will be able to rise as fast in the event of a slowdown. A report by the National Association of Business Economists says that profit margins dropped in the third quarter and that capital spending -- one of the key engines of economic growth -- slowed. In the NABE's quarterly industry survey, the proportion of firms reporting falling capital spending was at its highest point since 1992. ... (Nicholas Kulish in Wall Street Journal, page A2). A survey of business economists finds higher energy prices and increased costs for raw material reduced profit margins to their lowest point since mid-1991, resulting in cuts in capital spending. The survey, conducted by the National Association for Business Economists, found that 34 percent of respondents experienced a drop in profit margins during the third quarter of 2000. Seventeen percent of respondents said their profits had increased, while 49 percent said their profits were unchanged from the previous quarter. ... Increases in wages and salaries remained relatively moderate for the second consecutive quarter. Wages and salaries rose at 29 percent of firms, were unchanged at 71 percent, and did not fall at any of the surveyed companies, placing the number of companies increasing wages slightly below the average of the past 2 years. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-9). The number of initial claims filed with state agencies for unemployment insurance benefits fell by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 305,000 during the week ended Oct. 21, the Labor Department's Employment and Training Administration reports. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-15). The Conference Board reports that the volume of health-wanted advertising published in major U.S. newspapers held steady in September,
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, OCTOBER 26, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: The Employment Cost Index (not seasonally adjusted) for September 2000 was 149.5 (June 1989=100), an increase of 4.3 percent from September 1999. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) measures changes in compensation costs, which include wages, salaries, and employer costs for employee benefits. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the 3-month increase in compensation costs for civilian workers (nonfarm private industry plus state and local government) was 0.9 percent during the June-September 2000 period, following a gain of 1.0 percent in March-June 2000. Wages and salaries increased 0.8 percent during the June-September period, following a 1.0 percent increase in the previous 3-month period. Benefit costs rose 1.0 percent during the September quarter, following a 1.1 percent increase in the June quarter. ... Companies worldwide are increasing their use of stock and other long-term incentives as a way to attract and retain key employees, according to a report of employer reward practices in 26 countries. The annual Worldwide Total Remuneration Report by the New York City-based human resource consulting firm Towers Perrin found U.S. companies are leading the way in providing long-term incentives to employees. In the United States, more than 11 million employees are now covered by long-term incentive stock plans, with stock options by far the most common typed of long-term incentive, especially for senior management. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-2). State personal income during the second quarter of 2000 grew in all 50 states and the District of Columbia for the first time in nearly 4 years, according to data from the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. Led by strong earnings growth in the finance, insurance, and real estate industries, Nevada and Delaware topped the list of states with the fastest personal income growth during the second quarter, BEA said. Nevada's personal income grew 2.5 percent during the period, while income in Delaware was up 2.4 percent. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). __Sales of previously owned homes fell last month to a pace that still shows the economy has not lost much of its vigor. Home resales fell 2.7 percent in September, according to the National Association of Realtors. The decline came after a 9.5 percent rise in August resales that was the biggest monthly increase since June 1999. ... (New York Times, page C5; Washington Post, page E2). __Consumers shrugged off signs of a slowing economy and a volatile stock market and continued to snap up homes at a rapid pace in September. While sales of previously occupied, or existing, homes were down 2.7 percent from August's unusually strong rate, they were down just 0.2 percent from the pace of a year ago. An annual sales pace in excess of 5 million units is generally considered to be evidence of a very strong market. Looking forward the chief economist at First Union Corp. in Charlotte, N.C., and others said they expect Americans to continue to buy homes at a relatively strong clip, so long as unemployment and mortgage rates remain low. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). __The Federal Reserve has spent more than a year trying to steer the U.S. economy toward a soft landing of slower growth and modest inflation. If leaders of some of the nation's largest companies are correct, those efforts are soon to get much harder. An overwhelming majority of the chief executives of such titans as Cisco Systems Inc. and McDonald's Corp. expect economic growth to slow next year and inflation to rise. Such a scenario could create a dilemma for the Fed, which may have to choose between cutting interest rates if growth slows too much, or boosting rates if prices threaten to spiral out of control. The executives, members of the Business Council, a group of active and retired CEOs from hundreds of the U.S.'s leading companies, also said in a survey that it is increasingly difficult for them to raise prices in response to higher energy or labor costs. That suggests corporate profit margins could come under even greater pressure in the months to come. The pessimistic forecasts came as the industry group begins a 2-day semiannual meeting in Boca Raton, Fla., on topics ranging from global population trends to the future of technology. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2000 Thanksgiving is a 2-day holiday for the majority of workers, a Bureau of National Affairs survey finds. Seven out of 10 responding employers have designated both Thanksgiving Day and the following Friday as paid days off this year, virtually unchanged from the past 2 years. The prevalence of the 2-day Thanksgiving holiday has hovered near the 70 percent mark since the Bureau of National Affairs initiated the survey in 1977. ... The survey of nearly 300 employers found service employees, maintenance staff, and security officers among the most likely to miss out on Thanksgiving dinner. Most of those working will be paid double time, with a much smaller number receiving compensatory time off. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). __The National Academy of Sciences' National Research Council releases a congressionally mandated study examining domestic high-technology workforce needs and potential sources of supply in the next decade. The report concludes that, while skilled foreign workers can help relieve the tight high-tech labor market, cultivating adequately trained domestic workers is a "critical element." ... Copies of "Building a Workforce for the Information Economy" will be available early next year (Daily Labor Report, page A-8). __Foreign nationals working in the United States keep wages of Americans in the technology industry from rising as quickly as they otherwise might, according to a research panel that examined the nation's high-tech workforce. A new report issued by the National Research Council, which advises the federal government on scientific issues, comes days after President Clinton signed into law a bill that increased the number of H-1B visas, allowing more than 195,000 skilled technical workers, mostly from India and China, to enter the United States this year. ... Opponents argue that the visas bind foreign employees to companies that pay them low salaries in exchange for the prospect of permanent U.S. residency. They also say the program discourages companies from recruiting and training U.S. workers from minority groups and the ranks of women and older workers. The committee of 15 scholars, labor economists, and representatives from firms such as Microsoft Corp. and Intel Corp. concluded that foreign workers "can make positive contributions" to the American technology sector and that they have helped prevent an economic slowdown. ... (Washington Post, page E3). While both productivity and overall growth have accelerated markedly in the U.S. since the mid-1990s, no such surge is apparent in Europe, says Business Week (Oct. 30, page 42). Experts generally attribute much of this to Corporate America's far greater investment in information technology. But, as the Deutsche Bundesbank recently noted, at least part of the gap reflects differences in methods of measuring prices. In particular, the U.S. has adopted new techniques of factoring quality improvements in computers and other equipment into its inflation calculations, while many European nations still use traditional techniques. The Bundesbank notes, for example, that measured prices for IT equipment during the 1990s fell 80 percent in the U.S. after adjustment for quality gains, but only 20 percent in Germany. Thus, official data indicate that real investment in IT equipment in Germany rose at a mere 6 percent annual rate between 1991 and 1990, far below the 40 percent rate reported for the U.S. If Germany had used U.S. price-measurement techniques, on the other hand, the Bundesbank estimates that its IT investment growth rate would have averaged 27.5 percent. In sum, the gap between U.S. and European growth and productivity gains isn't as wide as it appears. More low-income adults have health insurance because their employers provide it, but the percentage of low-income children without insurance has not diminished since 1996, according to a new Urban Institute study. In addition, the problems of specific groups may be masked by positive overall trends. ... Only three states of the 13 studied saw significant reductions in the number of uninsured adults and children, researchers found. Those were Alabama, Colorado, and Massachusetts. The growth in the number of adults covered by employer-sponsored health insurance was a result of moves by low-income adults from welfare to work, as well as moves into higher paying jobs more likely to offer health insurance. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-6). The best way to alleviate shortages of skilled workers in the construction industry is to create more education and training opportunities for women and young people, William Rodgers, chief economist of the Labor Department, says in a speech to a construction industry conference. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-7). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Employment Cost Index -- September 2000 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2000
Employers that sponsor health plans are expected to face the third
consecutive year of double-digit health care cost increases in 2001,
according to Hewitt Associates, which is projecting average increases of 10
percent to 13 percent, depending on plan type. In 2000, rates increased by
9.4 percent, Hewitt says. Companies are expected to receive the highest
2001 cost increases for health maintenance organizations (13 percent).
Preferred provider organizations and point-of-service plans are expected to
experience rate hikes of 10 percent, and the rate hike for traditional
indemnity plans is projected to be 12 percent. Projections put the average
health plan cost at $4,707 per employee in 2001, up from $4,222 in 2000. ...
(Daily Labor Report, page A-9).
__For the first time since the Census Bureau began tracking the numbers,
families in which both parents are working have become the majority, even
among the most traditional families: married couples with children.
According to a new Census Bureau report, based on data from 1998, both
spouses were employed at least part time in 51 percent of the married
couples with children, compared with 33 percent in 1976. Even married or
single mothers of very young children were likely to work at least part
time: 59 percent of the women with babies younger than a year old were
employed in 1998, compared with 31 percent in 1976. And the numbers are
even higher for those with older children. Of the 31.3 million mothers ages
15 to 44 whose children were older than a year, 73 percent worked in 1998
and 52 percent worked full time. ... (New York Times, page A14).
__Since December, companies with sites offering information on finance,
consulting, and other industries have cut 8,113 jobs; retailers, 5,450; and
health and fitness companies, 2,190 (Washington Post, page E2).
As instances of traditional long-term strikes decline, short, temporary
walkouts and sickouts become more popular, says a paper by University of
Illinois professor Michael LeRoy. Such strikes limit lost wages and make
hiring replacement workers tough, but LeRoy notes that labor laws that apply
to most workers don't protect strikers from being fired in these cases
("Work Week," Wall Street Journal, page A1).
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BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2000: Regional and State unemployment rates were stable during September, with the Midwest posting the lowest regional jobless rate in the country at 3.5 percent, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. All four regions reported little or no change over the month, and 42 States reported changes of 0.3 percentage points or less. The national jobless rate slid 0.2 percentage point in September, to 3.9 percent (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). The Wall Street Journal's "Tracking the Economy" feature (page A15) predicts that the Employment Cost Index figure for the third quarter, due out Thursday, will be up 0.9 percent, according to the Thomson Global Forecast. The previous actual change was 1.0 percent. The U.S. economy's growth has slowed to a pace the Federal Reserve would consider non-inflationary, says a Bloomberg News survey of analysts. A 3.5 percent growth rate was likely in the third quarter. The economy grew 5.6 percent in the second quarter, 4.8 percent in the first (USA Today, page B1). By 2002, the Internet economy in the United States will grow to $1.23 trillion, and in the five most prosperous European countries it will grow to $597 billion, a report by Anderson Consulting predicts. Internet-based companies, including pure dot coms, portals and access applications companies, will employ more than 10 million workers in the United States and Europe. In an effort to fill all the new jobs, a bill going through Congress would increase the number of H-1B visas available to specialized workers from overseas, particularly those from Asia. Germany has also taken steps to import such workers. No other industry has created as many jobs in such a short time as the Internet, the report says. The report contains survey results from about 160 leaders of Internet companies and traditional companies, and from government experts in eight countries who had been asked their views on the state of the Internet. In two statements, 44 percent agreed strongly to the statement "There is currently sufficient capital for Internet entrepreneurs", 17 percent agreed, 16 percent disagreed, and 3 percent disagreed strongly. Forty one percent agreed strongly to the statement "There are not enough suitably qualified people to fill jobs", while 47 percent agreed, 11 percent disagreed, and 1 percent disagreed strongly (The Washington Post, October 21, page 16). Across the country, the number of farmers whose primary job is off the farm has grown 12 percent from 1974 to almost 950,000 in 1997, according to the census compiled by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Meanwhile, the number of farmers who listed their primary job as farming declined 33 percent during that time to about 962,000 (The Washington Post, page B1). Recruiting Web sites have moved well beyond being simply online versions of help-wanted newspaper sections, says Gaston F. Ceron writing in The Wall Street Journal (page R34). The growth of e-cruiting is partly a result of the tight labor market, but it also stems from the evolution of the industry itself. In the early days of the Internet, job notices were posted free of charge on bulletin boards. Those soon gave way to job-board sites -- essentially updated versions of a newspaper's help-wanted section. Now, many of the sites are much more sophisticated: Not only do they help visitors determine appropriate salaries and locations for a particular industry, but they also provide career-counseling and net-working sessions. application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 20, 2000: Today's News Release: "Regional and State Employment and Unemployment: September 2000" indicates that regional and state unemployment rates were stable in September. All four regions registered little or no change over the month, and 42 states recorded shifts of 0.3 percentage point or less. The national jobless rate edged down to 3.9 percent. Nonfarm employment increased in 30 states in September. The inflation-adjusted weekly median earnings of full-time U.S. workers rose 1.8 percent during the year ended in the third quarter, according to figures by the Bureau of Labor Statistics released October 19. Without adjustment for inflation, the median weekly earnings of the nation's 101.5 million wage and salary employees who work full time rose 5.3 percent to $575 in the third quarter 2000 (Daily Labor Report, page D-8). New claims filed with state agencies for unemployment insurance benefits decreased by 7,000 to a total of 307,000, after seasonal adjustment, the Employment and Training Administration reports (Daily Labor Report, page D-14). The Commerce Department reports that the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services narrowed by 7.1 percent in August, to its lowest level in 6 months, as exports rose much more than imports. The deficit fell to $29.4 billion from a record high of $31.7 billion in July, making the smallest trade gap since February, when the deficit stood at $27.5 billion. The improvement in August was better than expected, analysts said (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). __America's trade deficit shrank to $29.4 billion in August, the lowest level in 6 months, as U.S. exports surged to a record high on sales of computer products, autos and farm goods. Imports also climbed to a record, but falling oil prices gave relief to America's soaring oil bill. It was the lowest monthly imbalance since a deficit of $27.5 billion in February. Even with the August improvement, the deficit for this year is running at an annual rate of $353 billion, far above last year's record of $265 billion. Economists have warned that the trend poses a risk to the overall economy if foreigners, who so far have been willing to finance the deficit, suddenly decide to pull their money out of the U.S. economy, triggering a crash on Wall Street (The Washington Post, in an Associated Press article, page E2). __The nation's trade deficit narrowed in August to a 6-month low, as a surge in exports of aircraft engines, computer chips and other capital goods reduced the effect of record imports, government figures showed today (Bloomberg News in The New York Times, page C6). __A solid performance by U.S. exporters led to an unexpected narrowing of the August trade deficit. The surprising contraction of August's trade deficit, coupled with the narrowing revision of July's figure, may mean that the report on third-quarter gross domestic product growth, due out next week, will be stronger than the 3 percent or less analysts had been expecting (Elizabeth Price in The Wall Street Journal, page A2) Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said yesterday that world oil prices are likely to fall from their recent highs and that the price spike has done little damage to the U.S. economy. In a speech at the Cato Institute's annual monetary conference in Washington, Greenspan provided an upbeat outlook for economists, investors and others who had been worried by recent turmoil in oil markets, violence in the Middle East and volatility on Wall Street. The Fed chairman said there is "no credible evidence" that the acceleration of productivity growth, which has been spurred by technological advances in recent year, has come to an end. The continuing gain in productivity -- the amount of goods and services produced for each hour worked -- has allowed firms to pay higher wages without passing those costs on to their customers and "has been essential to containing price increases," the Fed Chairman said (John M. Berry in The Washington Post, page E1). __The low-inflation new economy is up against an old-economy challenge -- a surge in oil prices -- and so far the new economy is holding its own, Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman said today. Greenspan said the effects on the economy from higher oil prices have been modest so far. And the Fed chairman said there had been almost no effect on inflation expectations, reducing the chances the oil prices could set off a destabilizing spiral of rising wages and prices (Richard W. Stevenson in The New York Times, page C15). __Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said rising oil prices haven't yet triggered wider inflation, but he warned that soaring energy costs and politically profligacy could threaten the economy's future well-being. Speaking to the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank, Greenspan said nothing to ind
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, OCTOBER 19, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: Median weekly earrings of the nation's 101.5 million full-time wage and salary workers were $575 in the third quarter of 2000. This was 5.3 percent higher than a year earlier, compared with a gain of 3.5 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers over the same period. Data on usual earnings are collected as part of the Current Population Survey, a nationwide sample survey of households in which respondents are asked, among other things, how much each wage and salary worker usually earns. ... The Consumer Expenditure Survey was used in an article in last Sunday's The New York Times Magazine, "The Way We Spend Now" (page 55). The author, David Brooks, a senior editor at The Weekly Standard, writes, "According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Expenditure Survey, the post-65 set increased their spending levels faster than any other group between 1987 and 1997. A lot of this money is spent on entertainment. The average household headed by a person 65 to 74 years old now spends more on entertainment than the average household headed by someone under 25." ... And, talking about changing patterns, says, "According to the Consumer Expenditure Survey, Americans in 1997 spent 13 percent less -- in constant dollars -- on food away from home than they did in 1987, and 24 percent less on alcoholic beverages, 18 percent less on reading materials and 15 percent less on clothing." ... __Rising energy costs again caused an outsized increase in consumer prices last month, but a growing number of analysts are now predicting that inflation will ease during the coming year -- barring some Middle Eastern event that dramatically interrupts the flow of oil. The CPI jumped 0.5 percent in September, the largest monthly gain since April, as costs of energy, apparel, and tobacco items rose sharply. Over the past 12 months, increases in energy costs alone were responsible for nearly a full percentage point of the CPI's 3.5 percent rise. That increase in the CPI means that beneficiaries of many government programs, including Social Security, will see their monthly checks go up by that percentage in January. ... (John M. Berry in Washington Post, page E1). __Inflation is now on pace for its largest annual jump in a decade, although the price increases remain largely confined to energy costs. The report further complicates the picture of an economy that seems to be slowing even as inflation, one of the most common effects of rapid growth, is rising more rapidly than economists have anticipated. The CPI rose 0.5 percent in September and is now growing at an annual rate of 3.8 percent. ... (David Leonhardt in New York Times, page C4). __Propelled by higher oil costs, consumer prices picked up their pace in September. As a result, Social Security and Medicare benefits will increase by the largest amount in 9 years. Consumer prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent in September, after falling 0.1 percent the month before. Excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, the core rate increased 0.3 percent last month, compared with 0.2 percent in August. Both numbers were higher than analysts had expected, adding to the turmoil in equity markets. ... (Nicholas Kulish and Laurie McGinley in Wall Street Journal, page A2). Women hit another glass ceiling; homebody image costs female middle managers valuable overseas assignment. ... In an increasingly global business climate, companies have underestimated female wanderlust, according to a report released by the research firm Catalyst. The New York-based organization, which studies workplace issues affecting women, said misperceptions about women -- that they prefer to stay in one place, for example -- have kept female middle managers out of career-enhancing international assignments. The report polled human resources executives, as well as male and female frequent fliers who were based in the United States but frequently travel overseas. The survey found that women were indeed less willing to relocate overseas in the coming year than men, but were more willing than men to do so further in the future, and far more willing to do so than their numbers in such jobs indicate. ... (Washington Post, page E11). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment: September 2000 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 18, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: CPI -- The Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, following a 0.1 percent decline in August. The upturn reflects a sharp turnaround in the energy index, which increased 3.8 percent in September after declining 2.9 percent in August. In September, the indexes for petroleum-based energy and for energy services increased 5.9 and 1.7 percent, respectively. The food index rose 0.2 percent. ... Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.3 percent in September, following five consecutive monthly increases of 0.2 percent. A sharp increase in apparel prices and an upturn in the tobacco index were principally responsible for the larger advance in September. ... REAL EARNINGS -- Real average weekly earnings fell by 0.1 percent between August and September, after seasonal adjustment, according to preliminary data. This was due to a 0.6 percent increase in the consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. This movement was mostly offset by a 0.2 percent increase in average hourly earnings and a 0.3 percent increase in average weekly hours. ... Real average weekly earning decreased by 0.2 percent from September 1999 to September 2 ... The labor productivity growth rate in manufacturing in the United States climbed 6.2 percent during 1999, the largest increase in more than 10 years, BLS reports. Productivity also improved among eight of the nine other countries for which comparable data were available, with the United Kingdom and France posting the next largest gains at 4.3 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively. Only Norway failed to post productivity gains, remaining steady with its 1998 productivity. ... Unit labor costs -- a key measure of inflation -- were down 1.1 percent in the United States from 1998, but varied in the nine other countries. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Increasing technology production helped fuel a stronger-than-expected rise in industrial production of 0.2 percent in September, the Federal Reserve reports. Seasonally adjusted data showed that stepped up production of consumer goods and automobiles also aided in lifting the central bank's industrial production index. Industrial production was 5.7 percent higher than in September 1999. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-9)_Industrial production slowed in September from a month earlier, to close out the weakest quarterly performance for manufacturers since early 1999. ... (Washington Post, page E2)_Output rose 0.2 percent last month, mainly reflecting increased production of cars and replacement tires for the Explorer sport utility vehicles made by the Ford Motor Company. ... (New York Times, page C4)_U.S. industrial production rose modestly in September, offering further evidence that the economy remains strong despite being slowed by rising energy costs and higher interest rates. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A10). __The tight labor market, employee shortages, and the resulting long hours are having a strong effect on whether many of the nation's employers are able to continue to operate safe workplaces, a panel of labor and safety specialists say at a session of the National Safety Council's annual safety congress in Orlando, Fla. ... Another problem arising out of the high-turnover environment is the workforce losing its history -- "there are no veterans anymore" -- a director of the United Food and Commercial Workers said. She added that supervisory turnover "causes problems all over the place." ... Also at the conference, safety specialists looked at the dangers associated with night work and allowing employees who work alone to use internal reward systems for safe workplace behavior. ... (Daily Labor Report, page C-1)_Employees working alone at night in certain businesses are especially vulnerable to workplace violence, particularly robberies, an official with OSHA said. (Daily Labor Report, page C-1)_Decreasing traditional management controls and increasing the ability of employees to reward themselves for being mindful of responsible behavior is a psychological key to implementing a successful job safety program that addresses the specific needs of truck drivers and other employees who work alone, a behavioral sciences researcher said. ... (Daily Labor Report, page C-2). The fiscal year 2001 spending bill for the Departments of Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education (H.R. 4577) remained stalled Oct. 17, with the administration laying fault on what it sees as inadequate funding for education in the measure. Federal government agencies -- such as the Labor Department -- which are not covered by a signed appropriations bill, remained operating through Oct. 20 under a third continuing resolution (H.R. Res. 11). The continuing resolution extends funding for such agencies at fiscal year 2000
BLS Daily report
BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: In 1999, the productivity growth rate for manufacturing was the highest in the United States among the 10 countries for which comparable data were available, according to preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Labor productivity in manufacturing increased by 6.2 percent in the U.S.; the countries with the next largest increases were the United Kingdom and France. Only one country, Norway, showed no increase in productivity. ... Although they feel more secure in their jobs, a majority of U.S. workers in different age groups and income levels are less satisfied with their employment than they were 5 years ago, according to survey results by the Conference Board. ... The director of the Consumer Research Center told the Bureau of National Affairs that she believes there is a perception among workers, especially those in the 45-to-54 age group, that "they are not getting a fair share of the pie in terms of salaries, promotions, and bonuses." To some extent, the increase in job dissatisfaction seems to be related to "the fast-paced work climate" that often includes a "steep learning curve" for new technology, she said. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-7). Because the Labor Department's online employment database does not compete directly with private-sector job market Internet sites, the Computer and Communications Industry Association deemed America's Job Bank an appropriate service to be administered by the government. DOL's employment database provides substantial services for lower-skilled workers, while most private sector job databases, such as Monster.com or Headhunter.net, are targeted toward highly skilled job seekers, CCIA said in its recent report "The Role of Government in the Digital Age". ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-9). Inventories at businesses rose solidly in August, as sales of goods increased, the government said in a report consistent with a picture of slowing economic growth. The Commerce Department said inventories rose 0.7 percent in August, after a 0.4 percent increase in July. The August gain was the largest since a 0.9 percent gain in June. Business inventories typically rise in response to a slowing economy as companies are left with higher levels of stocks in warehouses as sales slow. ... (New York Times, page C2; Washington Post, page E2)_Business inventories rose sharply in August, while July's increase was revised upward, suggesting third-quarter economic growth may have been slightly stronger than expected. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). Airlines grapple with a shortage of mechanics, says USA Today (page 1B). If attrition doesn't slow, and more new mechanics aren't trained, "the result will be flight delays and late packages and aircraft sitting on the ground." ... The Labor Department says between 130,000 and 140,000 mechanics now work in the aviation industry and that 40,000 new ones will be needed by 2008 to fill jobs created by retirements, attrition, and industry growth. ... __After slowing for most of the 1990s, increases in college tuition bumped upward this year, the College Board announced in its annual survey of costs. Big increases in energy and health costs were most responsible for the shift in the tuition trend, according to some higher education representatives. Others blamed financial pressures related to academic quality, student comfort, and technology. Tuition at 4-year public colleges rose an average of 4.4 percent for the 2000 school year, the first time since 1991 that the increase was higher than it had been the year before. Last year, public college tuition increased 3.4 percent, on average. The latest tuition increases at private colleges average 5.2 percent, up from 4.6 percent a year ago. Tuition increases at private institutions had also moderated in the 1990s, although the trend was less consistent. ... (Washington Post, page A7). __The nation's colleges and universities raised tuition and fees for students by roughly 5 percent this year, capping a decade of price increases that are steadily outpacing family income. University presidents blamed the tuition increases, which ran higher than the 3.1 percent increase in the CPI over the last year, on soaring costs of energy and health care, of updating computer equipment, and outfitting dormitories for high-speed Internet access. ... An economist at Brookings says that, in the 1970s, a college degree meant earning a third more than high school graduates. Now that premium is 80 percent. ... (New York Times, page A23). __The College Board calculates that about half the undergraduates attending 4-year institutions pay less than $4,000 a year in tuition and fees and that only 9 percent attend the schools that cost more than $20,000. Still, in the past decade, tuition has increased 51 percent at public schools and 35 percent at private schools,
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, OCTOBER 16, 2000 Sharply rising energy prices and modest gains in automobile prices pushed producer prices up 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in September, BLS reports. ... The core producer price index, which excludes energy and food prices, increased 0.3 percent for September due to a 1.4 percent increase in automobile prices and a 1.5 percent increase in light truck prices, which include sport utility vehicles and minivans. ... The producer price index, bolstered by a 9.3 percent increase in gasoline prices, exceeded analysts' estimates that the PPI would increase by about 0.5 percent. ... Analysts say the larger than expected increase was due to sharply higher prices for a few types of goods and it is unlikely the report will prompt the Federal Reserve Board to boost short-term interest rates to counteract fears of inflation. ... (Brett Ferguson in Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Retail sales rose 0.9 percent in September, reflecting solid gains in big ticket items and nondurables, the Commerce Department reports. The September gain was the strongest since sales rose 1.4 percent in February. ... The overall increase beat expectations for the month, economists say. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-3). __American manufacturers were able to charge surprisingly high prices for their goods in September, BLS reported, but most analysts said the increases were probably not a harbinger of broader inflation. Investors seemed to agree, as major stock indexes rose. The data on pricing and a report showing strong retail sales point to the resilience of the American economy, despite 2 years of rising oil prices and a 6-week spell of declining stock prices, economists said. ... (David Leonhardt in New York Times, Oct. 14, page B1). __A trio of reports generally confirmed a picture of a slowdown in the record-long expansion of the U.S. economy, with inflation pressures growing, consumer confidence inching down and consumers demanding price discounts that have begun to cut deeply into corporate profits. Producer prices rose an unexpectedly large 0.9 percent in September, the biggest jump in 7 months. Autos posted their biggest monthly price increase in 5 years, 1.4 percent, while food costs rose for the first time in 5 months. Gasoline prices soared 9.3 percent. ... Another report from the Commerce Department showed that retail sales had jumped 0.9 percent in September, largely on the strength of increased car sales and higher prices for gasoline. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan reported that its index of consumer sentiment continued its gradual, yearlong decline. Analysts said the September report reflects a growing belief among Americans that while jobs and income are good right now, the future looks less sure. Rising prices for goods and falling values of their stock holdings are cited as reason for the decreased optimism. ... (Steven Pearlstein in Washington Post, Oct. 14, page E1). __High oil prices didn't slow consumer spending last month, but recent declines in the stock market could shake their confidence down the line. Prior to last week's market volatility, exacerbated by new unrest in the Mideast, there was much talk of a soft landing for the U.S. economy. But the latest retail sales report shows American consumers were still flying high in September. Wholesale prices, meanwhile, are up sharply amid rising oil prices, though they are under control after that volatile commodity is factored out. ... The purchasing decisions of American consumers will determine how fast the economy grows during the fourth quarter. The University of Michigan's midmonth report on consumer sentiment showed a very moderate decrease to 106.4 from 106.8 in September. The number is still high by historical standards. ... (Nicholas Kulish in Wall Street Journal, page A2). The Wall Street Journal's feature "Tracking the Economy" indicates that the Thomson Global Forecast for the Consumer Price Index for September, due out Wednesday, is for an increase of 0.4 percent, compared with the actual 0.1 percent decrease the previous month. The CPI excluding food and energy is predicted to be identical to what it actually was the previous month: up 0.2 percent. Extremely tight labor markets that persist in virtually all parts of the country most likely will push up wages well into 2001 and possibly longer, according to the latest figures from the Wage Trend Indicator of the Bureau of National Affairs. The final WTI reading for the third quarter of 2000 is 100.67, only somewhat below the 100.80 shown for the second quarter 2000 (second quarter 1979=100). ... The September employment report showed what many analysts saw as a surprisingly strong labor market, although job growth over the last few months is below the 1999 average. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-6). Although overtime work has been a central component of several labor disputes in the past year
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: The U.S. Import Price Index rose 1.5 percent in September. The increase was attributable to a rise in petroleum import prices. The Export Price Index increased 0.5 percent in September, following a decline of 0.3 percent in the previous month. ... A Bureau of Labor Statistics pilot survey shows that stock options are most prevalent among highly paid employees of companies with publicly traded stock. As a part of research on ways to improve compensation measures, the stock option survey found that, among establishments of publicly held companies, 22.1 percent offered stock options to their employees in 1999, a much higher incidence than the 2.4 percent shown for all private establishments. ... Now that they have estimates of the incidence of stock options, bureau officials plan to conduct a survey on the costs of stock options to employers, according to Kathleen MacDonald, BLS associate commissioner for compensation and working conditions. Before they can prepare the survey and set a timetable for its completion, BLS economists will consult with accountants and other experts about how best to gather the cost information, she said, adding that the agency will be able to set a timetable for the next survey within a couple of months. When the agency has the cost information, it can assess the impact on employers, MacDonald said. "Remember that the ECI is an employer survey," so it is not intended to show the direct effect of certain benefits to employees, she said. If the agency decides that the impact of stock options on employers' costs is significant, it could opt to start collecting data on stock options on a regular basis for the ECI or perhaps make it a separate survey, MacDonald said. The impact on a given establishment could be significant, for example, even if only a relatively small number of highly paid employees were given stock options, she said. ... (Pam Ginsbach in Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Confusion about how labor strikes are used in computing employment statistics has grown significant enough to prompt the Bureau of Labor Statistics to write a report clarifying its procedures, says Karthik Rao, an economist at BLS' division of monthly industry employment statistics. She said the agency has received several public inquiries about how strikes are classified in the data, and BLS decided "it's time for someone to write an article to clarify how we handle strike data." The report, "The Impact of Strikes on Current Employment Statistics," was published in the agency's "Monthly Labor Review." Rao, the author of the report, says three major factors determine how, where, and to what extent strikes influence payroll employment data: the reference pay period used by BLS, the industry code, and the striking company's presence in or absence from the sample. Rao says the most critical factor in whether a strike will be reflected in the payroll employment data, or current employment statistics (CES) survey, is its timing. If a strike begins or ends during the survey reference period, which is always the pay period that includes the 12th of the month, the workers on the payroll for that week would not be included in the payroll employment count. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-4; text, page E-27). __"Given the robust nature of the economy, there is a general shortage of people in the resort counties, here as well as nationwide," says Colorado's state demographer, who attributes the labor problems to the rapid growth in tourism, the increasing number of second and third homes built in ski resort areas, and soaring real estate markets. In many of Colorado's ski towns, a modest single family house with three or four bedrooms sells for $1 million or more. As a result, working people who earn hourly wages selling clothes, waiting tables, and operating ski lifts can no longer afford to live near their jobs. In the last few years, many of them have been forced to find affordable housing 30 to 60 miles away, creating monstrous rush-hour traffic jams, polluting the air, and undermining the quality of life of workers, especially those who long to spend more time with their children. Now, workers are beginning to abandon their resort jobs to find work closer to home. ... While the nation's unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent in August, matching a 30-year record, the rate fell even lower in some of Colorado's prime ski counties: to 1.9 percent in Summit, where Copper Mountain is; 1.5 percent in Pitkin, where Aspen is, and 1.4 percent in Eagle, where Vail is. ... More and more employers are sending representatives to job fairs in other states and in foreign countries, offering recruits subsidized housing, hourly wages well above the minimum wage, comprehensive health care packages, and free season passes to the slopes. ... (New York Times, page A10). Two America
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 13, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods rose 0.9 percent in September, seasonally adjusted. This index declined 0.2 percent in August and showed no change in July. The Index for Finished Goods other than foods and energy advanced 0.3 percent in September, after edging up 0.1 percent in the prior month. Prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods increased 0.7 percent, following a 0.2 percent decrease a month earlier. The crude goods index rose 5.3 percent, after falling 1.5 percent in August. ... The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to receive the funding it needs from Congress to begin gathering data on how Americans use their free time, BLS Commissioner Katharine Abraham said. Abraham, speaking to the National Economists Club, said funding for the $4.3 million time-use survey project has been retained in the conference agreement on the agency's 2001 budget request, but is still being considered by congressional appropriators. The conference report on the Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education appropriations bills has not yet been filed and no date has been set for a vote, a spokesman for the Senate Appropriations Committee told the Bureau of National Affairs. If funding for the project is approved, production of statistics measuring the time Americans spend in paid work, unpaid work, and other nonmarket activities could begin by 2003, Abraham said. Time-use information is important because it could be used by policymakers to place a value on investment to human capital, such as parents spending more time reading to their children. "The absence of information on time-use is the single biggest hole in statistical information in the United States," Abraham said. "We need to be sure we are looking broadly enough at the statistics, and that is why time-use information is important." Several other projects proposed by BLS to improve economic data are not expected to be approved by Congress this year, Abraham said. Those projects include an initiative to enhance local area unemployment statistics and a plan to add a measure of nonresidential construction to the PPI. ... (Brett Ferguson in Daily Labor Report, page A-11). __A sharp rise in world oil prices boosted prices of goods imported by U.S. businesses in September, while prices of exported goods rose modestly, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Imported petroleum prices jumped 14.1 percent in September, the largest monthly rise since February. As a result, prices of all imported goods climbed 1.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis last month, also the largest monthly advance since February. Over the year ended in September, import prices have risen by 6.4 percent. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). __Prices of imports other than oil showed the largest decline in one and a half years last month, suggesting the nation's appetite for foreign-made goods is helping contain inflation. The import price index less oil fell 0.3 percent in September, as costs fell for food, business equipment, autos, and consumer goods. ... A separate report showed that the number of Americans filing the first time for state unemployment benefits rose 5,000 last week, to 306,000. The less-volatile 4-week average for new claims fell to 301,500 -- the lowest since mid-August -- from 306,500 a week earlier, suggesting that the demand for workers is showing no signs of weakening. ... (Bloomberg News in New York Times, page C2). __Rising oil prices have yet to translate into higher inflation overall, but combined with unrest in the Middle East and colder weather approaching they are feeding inflationary concerns. Oil prices soared as escalating Mideast tensions sparked fears of possible supply disruptions. ... Economists are divided about the effects of rising petroleum prices on growth and inflation. The report on import prices showed the cost of petroleum imports rose 14.1 percent during September, after a 0.1 percent increase in August. But overall import prices rose just 1.5 percent for the month, and nonpetroleum imports actually were cheaper by 0.3 percent last month. ... Separately, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose a moderate 5,000 to 306,000 last week. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). New economy productivity gains are taking hold in surprising places, says Business Week (Oct. 19, page 98). Output per employee rose at a 2 percent to 2.4 percent annual rate in every region of the country from 1995 to 1998. In addition, the difference in job growth and unemployment rates between regions is lower than ever before. "This is the most evenly distributed expansion since World War II," says the director of microeconomic policy analysis at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The primary reason for this remarkably uniform regional performance: High-tech industries and products are everywhere. ... It'
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: In 1999, 1.7 percent of all private industry employees received stock options, according to a pilot survey of stock option incidence conducted by BLS. The proportion of non-executive employees offered stock options ranged from 0.7 percent for those earning less than $35,000 to 12.9 percent of those earning $75,000 and above. The percentage of employees who received stock options also ranged by industry, from 0.2 percent in nondurable manufacturing industries to 5.3 percent in durable manufacturing industries, and by geographic region, from 1.1 percent in the Northeast to 2.1 percent in the West. After-hire grants -- grants offered to employees after the initial hiring (or signing) phase of employment -- made up the majority of stock option grants. ... It's not new-economy magic that is driving America's productivity surge -- it's just computers, writes Louis Uchitell in the New York Times (Oct. 8, page 6 of "Money and Business" section). "Nothing has been harder for economists to explain than the prosperity that burst upon the United States with magical suddenness in late 1995. In the absence of explanation, there was phrase-making. A 'new economy' had arrived, and the words became a banner for all sorts of optimism. Only now is a realistic definition of the new economy coming into focus," writes Uchitelle. The computer, of course, is at its heart -- but not as a miracle machine spinning a golden future comparable to the industrial leap forward that came in the late 19th and 20th centuries. ... Computers have indeed lifted the economy, but mainly through the manufacture of the computers themselves and the production of semiconductors, communications equipment, software, and other computer-related devices. "You have this relatively small sector -- collectively known as information technology -- that is enormously productive," said Kevin J. Stiroh, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and co-author with Dale W. Jorgenson of Harvard of one of several recent studies on the subject. All of them find that the new economy is still narrowly focused on the computer industry and its siblings. The ripple effect across the broad economy, in sum, is still rather small, although it might be much greater a decade or two from now. ... Or the new economy may be much more modest. The phrase may come to mean simply a speeding up of what we were already doing. ... The latest contribution to our collective knowledge has come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In a report last month [on multifactor productivity], the bureau listed the reasons for the surge in productivity since 1995, to an average annual rate of 2.5 percent or so, after more than 20 years of never rising above 1.6 percent. ... The report made clear that the recent surge in productivity came not from broad ripple effects, but narrowly from computers. Only about 25 percent of the robust productivity growth since 1995 came from the use of computers, software, and other information processing equipment. This is the ripple effect -- computers applied to biotechnology and e-commerce, for example. The biggest shot-in-the-arm came from within the computer industry itself, mainly from the manufacture of ever faster, more powerful computers and semiconductors. This was the source of more than 40 percent of the nation's accelerated productivity growth. ... "Wherever productivity is surging today, it is narrowly related to computers," says Robert J. Gordon, a Northwestern University economist. ... Americans are now expected to spend decades of their lives -- not years -- in retirement, and that may not be a good thing, according to a researcher at the International Longevity Center-USA, a nonprofit group in New York. "Twenty or 25 years of retirement may sound pretty good to people who have worked hard all their lives, but whether it's good for their health or the health of the nation is another matter," says Dr. Robert N. Butler, president of the group and a co-author of a book "Longevity and Quality of Life: Opportunities and Challenges". "Inactivity is one of the greatest threats to the physical and mental health of older people," Dr. Butler says. It turns out that Americans agree. Findings from a recent national survey suggest that workers want to continue to work after full-time employment -- but on their own terms. In the survey, by the John J. Heidrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers and the Center for Survey Research and Analysis at the University of Connecticut, 1,005 workers, chosen at random, were interviewed between Aug. 4 and 31. Three-fourths said they would like to retire early from their permanent, full-time jobs. But only 10 percent of those surveyed said they would stop working after leaving those positions. Nearly 70 percent said they would continue
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2000 __Excluding temporary factors, payroll employment growth in the U.S. economy wavered only slightly in September from its more moderate pattern of recent months. Payrolls outside of agriculture expanded by 252,000 in September, but some of the gain was due to the return of striking Verizon Communications workers, says the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The payroll gain was larger than expected, and a decline in the civilian unemployment rate -- to 3.9 percent in September -- caught many forecasters by surprise. On the inflation front, analysts were reassured by continued moderation in average hourly earnings. ... (Daily Labor Report; Commissioner Abraham's statement, page E-44. __For only the second time in 30 years, the nation's unemployment rate dipped below 4 percent in September, as hiring by construction and business service firms more than offset declines in manufacturing payrolls. The economy added 252,000 jobs during September, driving the official unemployment rate down to 3.9 percent. The jobless rate in August was 4.1 percent. Some of the data in the report reflected one-time events, such as the returned 75,000 striking telephone workers on the East Coast and continued layoffs of temporary census workers by the government. Despite the brisk pace of hiring and the shrinking pool of unemployed workers to choose from, hourly wage increases remain modest, amounting to 3 cents an hour in September. Over the past year, average hourly earnings have climbed 3.6 percent, though, for companies, most of that has been offset by higher productivity, so the increase shouldn't eat into corporate profits. ... (Steven Pearlstein in Washington Post, Oct. 7, page E1). __The unemployment rate in September fell to 3.9 percent, matching a 30-year low, and 252,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were created. The report sent stock prices down on fears that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates in the future and on expectations on Wall Street of weaker profit growth in the just-ended third quarter. In the service sector, temporary help agencies led in job creation, adding 69,000 jobs in September. Payrolls also grew strongly in construction, health care, mortgage banking, and job training. But the growth in some cases had more to do with abnormal seasonal variations that are likely to disappear next month, said Thomas L. Nardone, chief of the division at the Bureau of Labor Statistics that compiles the monthly employment reports. ... (Louis Uchitelle in New York Times, Oct. 7, page B1). __The unexpected decline in September's unemployment rate doesn't mean the economy has blown off its course toward a soft landing. The 0.2 percentage point decline brought the jobless rate back down to 3.9 percent last month, matching a 30-year-low first reached in April. The jobless rate for African Americans fell one percentage point to a record low of 7 percent. Still, the overall drop in the jobless rate set off alarms at the Federal Reserve, which remains worried that desperate employers will boost wages and benefits to attract or retain workers triggering inflation. The Fed has raised interest rates six times since June 1999 to slow the economy, though it has kept rates steady at the past three meetings. ... (Yochi J. Dreazen, Wall Street Journal, Oct. 9, page A2). The Wall Street Journal's feature "Tracking the Economy (Oct. 9, page A6) predicts that the Producer Price Index for September, due out Friday, will show an increase of 0.5 percent. The August change in the Producer Price Index was -0.2 percent. The core PPI is predicted to have risen 0.2 percent in September, after an increase of 0.1 percent in August. ... The import price index, due out on Thursday is forecast to have increased 0.8 percent in September, following a rise of 9.2 percent in August. Stamford, Conn., and Columbia, Mo., both at 1.2 percent, had the lowest unemployment rates among major U.S. cities, according to The Wall Street Journal's "Work Week" feature (page A1). More seniors are rejecting retirement and holding jobs, says Sarah Schafer in The Washington Post (page E1). Today there are about 49 million workers in America aged 45 and older -- making up about 35 percent of the labor force, according to a White House statement released last month. By 2008, that number will climb to 62 million people -- or 40 percent of the labor force. In addition, about 80 percent of boomers say they intend to work past the age of 65. Adding to this trend is the dearth of younger workers. DUE OUT TOMORROW: Pilot Survey on the Incidence of Stock Options in Private Industry in 1999 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2000 RELEASED TODAY: Total nonfarm employment rose by 252,000 in September, and the unemployment rate declined to 3.9 percent. After adjusting for the net return of striking workers (75,000) and a further decline in the number of temporary census jobs (27,000), nonfarm employment was up by 204,000. Job gains were very strong in the services industry, but the overall employment change was tempered by widespread job losses in manufacturing. ... While the total number of mass layoff events was lower over the first eight months of this year compared with the same period a year ago, the number of employees affected was about the same in the two periods, according to BLS. The latest data showed that from January through August 2000, there were a total of 9,554 mass layoffs -- those involving 50 or more workers in a given month regardless of the duration of the layoffs. That total was 6.8 percent lower than the number of mass layoffs for the first eight months of 1999. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). New claims filed with state agencies for unemployment insurance benefits increased by 10,000 to a total of 299,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ended Sept. 30, according to the Labor Department's Employment and Training Administration. The four-week moving average of initial UI claims -- a figure that is more closely watched by analysts than the more volatile weekly total -- stood at 306,000 for the period ended Sept. 30, down 3,000 from the prior period. Most analysts said the latest figures are in line with their expectations for more moderate employment growth in the next few months. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-5). Federal Reserve officials are a lot more comfortable with the great productivity boom of 2000 than they were with a comparable surge in 1999. The difference: The stock market soared in response to last year's increase in output per worker hour, but this year it has stayed flat. (Wall Street Journal, page A4). Shoppers hit the stores in September with the same tempered enthusiasm of the past several months, their appetite eroded by higher fuel prices, a slowdown in income growth, and another season of ho-hum fashions. With the robust spending spree of a year earlier becoming a distant memory, there are distinct indications that a less-than-merry Christmas-shopping season is ahead for all but the strongest retailers. ... Overall, sales at stores open at least a year rose 3.4 percent in September, according to Salomon Smith Barney's sales-weighted index of 50 retailers. That is a marked decline from last year's figure of 6.3 percent in September. ... (Wall Street Journal, page B4)_Sales at retail stores open at least a year rose in September, but many stores were offering deeply discounted prices, which will probably cut into profits for the quarter and for the year. ... (New York Times, page C1) More than 80 percent of eligible employees hold balances in the Section 401(k) plans offered by their employers, according to a recent survey by the Profit Sharing/401(k) Council of America. The findings show that pre-tax participant deferrals average 5.4 percent of pay for non-highly compensated workers, up from 5.1 percent of pay in 1998 and 4.2 percent of pay in 1991. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-8). application/ms-tnef
