Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

2020-04-14 Thread thompnickson2
But Glen, The Laws of Scientific Procedure ARE the laws I am talking about here. In good times, we can take the time to focus on the consequences to individuals. And so, we can design our health systems for the most vulnerable among us. That imposes delays on the "mean" patient, but no prob

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

2020-04-14 Thread Steven A Smith
Glen - I appreciate the very clear and positive (albeit blunt) way you framed Dave's post, hopefully allowing the rest of us (including Dave) to continue the conversations implied in a positive and coherence-seeking manner.  I think Dave's rant referenced a number of important issues worth discuss

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

2020-04-14 Thread Steven A Smith
Jochen - Can you describe more about how your idea of "hidden genes" contrasts and compares to Dawkin's "memes"? Glen (I think) has questioned the term (meme) in the past, but I don't think we ever discussed the point here?  I don't know if his argument was more against Dawkins, against the use o

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

2020-04-14 Thread Jochen Fromm
Yes, it was not a real publisher, just a self-publishing company where you can publish anything. I cancelled the contract because you need to pay every year. It was a sort of trial balloon to see if anybody is interested in the topic which I believe is quite explosive. Actually nobody was intere

[FRIAM] FW: [EXT] Christus St. Vincent puts 300 employees on temporary leave

2020-04-14 Thread thompnickson2
All, The flip-side of success. In an ideal world, those people would go to NY. I wouldn’t blame them if they didn’t. See below. Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com

[FRIAM] speaking of divisive rhetoric

2020-04-14 Thread uǝlƃ ☣
8 Ways to Stay Ahead of Influence Operations https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/12/8-ways-to-stay-ahead-of-influence-operations/ > The public must learn to become reflexively suspicious of information that > makes them angry at fellow citizens. I'd add to that the public must learn to be reflexiv

Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

2020-04-14 Thread Marcus Daniels
Nick writes: < The basic message is that we are effed from here to Sunday because we don’t know the initial conditions. It’s like modeling the weather on a day when all the weather observers are known to be drunk. > Another perspective on prediction. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

2020-04-14 Thread uǝlƃ ☣
My experience is that the cops have a LOT of preferential enforcement power. And my black friends seem to agree (inverse experiences). And it's not clear to me that this selective enforcement stops at the sheriffs and beat cop layer. I think many places have the leeway to "decriminalize" things

Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

2020-04-14 Thread thompnickson2
Eric, ‘n all, The Pandemic Cartoon, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling is REALLY GOOD. The basic message is that we are effed from here to Sunday because we don’t know the initial conditions. It’s like modeling the w

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

2020-04-14 Thread Prof David West
Glen, You are correct, especially when I used all caps to shout my assertion. My only excuse is that I was writing to a specific audience who I do not expect to take me all that seriously. Also, a bit of habit. When I stood in front of the classroom for the first time and introduced myself to

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

2020-04-14 Thread uǝlƃ ☣
Excellent! Thanks for that qualifier. A remaining question is: When you state your CONCLUSION without a subjective qualifier, the audience is supposed to implicitly *hear* a qualifier. But when someone on MSNBC states their conclusions without the qualifer, you hear *authoritarian* assertions.

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

2020-04-14 Thread Prof David West
Venturing an opinion — The State put a traffic signal at an intersection because (anthropomorphizing here) The State determined that a number of factors (sight lines, traffic volume, ...) made it advisable to regulate the flow of traffic. The State also made an assumption about the typical driv

[FRIAM] Fwd: New Johns Hopkins Tracking Map Delves Deeper into U.S. COVID-19 Data

2020-04-14 Thread George Duncan
See Johns Hopkins tracking map. George Duncan Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University georgeduncanart.com See posts on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram Land: (505) 983-6895 Mobile: (505) 469-4671 My art theme: Dynamic exposition of the tension between matrix order and luminou

[FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

2020-04-14 Thread Eric Charles
Most of you probably know the site Five Thirty Eight, which emerged over the last few election cycles as the top nerdy polling / public-opinion-modeling site. Some of you know SMBC, which has spent quite a few years towards the top of the pantheon of nerd comics. Well, the two collaborated on a lon

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

2020-04-14 Thread Prof David West
It was not my intent to make any assertions, or claims. merely to offer completely subjective observations - "anecdotal data" as it were. Yes, there is a not-so-subliminal editorial slant behind the observations. But that slant is pretty obvious and quite familiar to those on the list: - I do

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

2020-04-14 Thread Frank Wimberly
👌 On Tue, Apr 14, 2020 at 8:27 AM uǝlƃ ☣ wrote: > The problem doesn't lie with any one of Dave's questionable assertions. > The problem lies with his narrative arc. That arc argues that *others* (not > Dave) claim non-credible expertise. Yet Dave implies over and over again > that he has such cr

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

2020-04-14 Thread uǝlƃ ☣
The problem doesn't lie with any one of Dave's questionable assertions. The problem lies with his narrative arc. That arc argues that *others* (not Dave) claim non-credible expertise. Yet Dave implies over and over again that he has such credibility. Each list item and conclusion are replete wit