rational expectations?

Browning, E. S. 2001. "'Normal' Stock Return Lies in Eye of Beholder." Wall Street Journal (30 April). According to a survey conducted one month ago by Stephen Johnson, president of Northwest Survey & Data Services in Eugene, Ore., many investors consider double-digit gains to be normal. They als

rational expectations

Things are a bit slow on pen-l, so I will put in this note. It has double relevance here. 1) It says volumes about the theory of rational expectations. 2) It may say something about the rhetorical styles on what I once accidentally called "male" lists. Holt, Jim. 2000. "Confid

rational expectations

Rob wrote: >I reckon economics is currently so male because of the way it's taught (as >natural science, where all is, and you are, either right or wrong) and the >degrees in which it is taught (professional - you are what you've studied) - >so far that has meant a preponderance of male graduate

rational expectations

>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] 08/02/00 12:57PM >>> Why foist something on the world if you don't have the slightest idea if it's fully baked or not? __ CB: Why not foist it on the world ? The world's a big boy. It can take it. What's the world ever done for you ? :>)

rational expectations

>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] 08/02/00 04:47PM >>> -clip- I was saying something more modest: that we should acquaint ourselves, deeply and sympathetically, with the best argument of the key antagonists to our most cherished beliefs. If that is an unattainable, our situation is more dismal than even

rational expectations

>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] 08/03/00 11:33AM >>>In my interpretation, critical realism >starts with the axiom that empirical reality exists independent of our perception of it. The rest of the epistemology is based on that. In many ways it's a critique of postmodern ultra-skepticism, in which any

rational expectations

>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] 08/03/00 04:14PM >>> Charles Brown wrote: >It is an a posteriori truth that we are correct about more things >than our critics are. Why aren't there more of "us" then? ___ The ruling class murders and ruins the upholders of these truths, so most don't join us

Rational expectations

Lawyers are less centralized on a world level ( international law is still openly "might makes right"). There is a lot of centralization on the national level with the Supreme Courts and the like, but even there , money rules. There is some autonomy at the trial court level, though again within

rational expectations

>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] 08/03/00 11:17PM >>> << Jim D. wrote: "who is it that determines who a "real authority" is? Is there a World Congress of Philosophers who makes this decision?" >> A very interesting question. Steve Shapin has explored this question with respexct to early modern scienc

Rational expectations

>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] 08/04/00 11:06AM >>> In a message dated Fri, 4 Aug 2000 10:51:23 AM Eastern Daylight Time, "Charles Brown" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes: << Lawyers are less centralized on a world level ( international law is still openly "might makes right"). In fact, but not officially

Re: rational expectations

Michael Perelman wrote: > > Holt, Jim. 2000. "Confidence Games: Why Your Self-Esteem Is Probably Too > High." Lingua Franca, 10: 9 (April): p. 68. > "Overconfidence is nearly universal. In fact, a study some years ago > found that the only group of people free from it -- the only group with a

Re: rational expectations

Michael Perelman wrote: > Holt, Jim. 2000. "Confidence Games: Why Your Self-Esteem Is Probably Too > High." Lingua Franca, 10: 9 (April): p. 68. > "Overconfidence is nearly universal. In fact, a study some years ago > found that the only group of people free from it -- the only group with a > re

Re: rational expectations

>Timework Web wrote: > >>Michael Perelman wrote: >> >>>Holt, Jim. 2000. "Confidence Games: Why Your Self-Esteem Is Probably Too >>>High." Lingua Franca, 10: 9 (April): p. 68. >>> "Overconfidence is nearly universal. In fact, a study some years ago >>>found that the only group of people free from i

Re: rational expectations

>Actually there was serious content to what you perceived as a piece >of wisecrack. Yoshie & I have long argued over uncertainty and >self-questioning. I think it's a good thing, and she doesn't. I like >to quote a remark by an Australian scholar of cultural studies & >feminism, Catherine Dri

Re: rational expectations

>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] 07/31/00 08:57PM >>> >Actually there was serious content to what you perceived as a piece >of wisecrack. Yoshie & I have long argued over uncertainty and >self-questioning. I think it's a good thing, and she doesn't. I like >to quote a remark by an Australian scholar of

Re: rational expectations

Doug wrote: >Charles Brown wrote, responding to Yoshie: > >>I don't think it's a matter of whether "uncertainty" & >>"self-questioning" are good things. The point is that we are >>basically incapable of self-criticism. >> >>__ >> >>CB: We are dependent upon others for criticism. This is

Re: rational expectations

Hi Justin: >A lot of people take this attitude, but I follow the dangerous >course of reading my adversaries and taking them seriously. I have >read Sommers (I have in fact met her) and I think she is an idiot. >But I also read Hayek and Mises, and, as you all know, I have >learned from them.

Re: rational expectations

We've had this conversation before. One way of summarizing my take on this is that "dialectical materialism" has some unfortunate baggage which can be avoided by reconsidering the issues under a new rubric. One source is Tony Lawson's article on critical realism in volume I of Phil O'Hara's EN

Re: rational expectations

>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] 08/03/00 02:31PM >>> We've had this conversation before. One way of summarizing my take on this is that "dialectical materialism" has some unfortunate baggage which can be avoided by reconsidering the issues under a new rubric. __ CB: I find a lot of convers

Re: rational expectations

When our critics are right about something, we should revise our views. Unlike Yoshie, I don't think we should just listen to formulate better replies to their errors, but also to see if we can learn something, to correct our own errors. It is not an a priori truth that "we" are right about eve

Re: rational expectations

>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] 08/03/00 03:29PM >>> When our critics are right about something, we should revise our views. ))) CB: Sure, but what is an example of something important that they are correct about ? I say that realizing there has been a recent long thread on Hayek , for exampl

Re: rational expectations

For couple of years, Chico employed Marco del Seta, one of the brightest people I ever met. He had a degree from London School of Economics in the philosophy of science and had taught some classes there any economics department. Having done graduate work in both philosophy and economics, I once

Re: rational expectations

I wrote: > > Nonetheless, it's best to make criticisms with _content_.< Justin writes: >When it's worth doing. It's information to know that someone's viewsare >not worth paying attention to. What the guy do, refuse to pay an IOU he had to you? did he cut you off in traffic? I make a parenthe

Re: rational expectations

Jim D. wrote: "who is it that determines who a "real authority" is? Is there a World Congress of Philosophers who makes this decision?" = Roger Coase floated the idea that there should be a few years back...very scary. Ian

Re: Rational expectations

Ian Murray wrote, >Jim D. wrote: "who is it that determines who a "real authority" is? Is >there a World Congress of Philosophers who makes this decision?" = >Roger Coase floated the idea that there should be a few years back...very >scary. In effect there is a "WCP" with the authorit

RE: Rational expectations

Henwood [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: Friday, 4 August 2000 12:23 To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: [PEN-L:246] Re: Re: Re: Rational expectations Michael Perelman wrote: >When is the last time that a leftist economist has been hired at a major >university economics department? When I

Re: rational expectations

>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] 08/03/00 07:18PM >>> Jim D. wrote: "who is it that determines who a "real authority" is? Is there a World Congress of Philosophers who makes this decision?" = Roger Coase floated the idea that there should be a few years back...very scary. _ CB: Whose that

Re: rational expectations

Yes, he did. He talks about how scientists (natural philosophers, as they said then) struggled with the idea that work with your hands, necessary to set up experiments, was not respectable for gentlemen, but the testimony of rude mechanics was not credible. --jks In a message dated Fri, 4 Aug

Re: Rational expectations

In a message dated Fri, 4 Aug 2000 10:51:23 AM Eastern Daylight Time, "Charles Brown" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes: << Lawyers are less centralized on a world level ( international law is still openly "might makes right"). In fact, but not officially. As a matter of law, the UN Charter is part

Re: Rational expectations

Michael Perelman wrote: >Japan grew very fast in the postwar period because its previous economists >were mostly excluded because of their fascist past, leading to a void that >Marxist trained economists filled. Eventually, Japan started hiring mostly >orthodox economists and their economy slowe

Re: rational expectations

Justin wrote: >When our critics are right about something, we should revise our >views. Unlike Yoshie, I don't think we should just listen to >formulate better replies to their errors, but also to see if we can >learn something, to correct our own errors. It is not an a priori >truth that "we

Re: rational expectations

>Carroll, you will persist in misunderstanding. There are errors and >errors. I think that many people are wrong about many things--you, >often, Charles, often, Yoshie, frequently. Among us, that just >indicates disagreement. i think Hayek was wrong about private >property, but I don't think h

Frontiers of Rational Expectations

To be presented at Duke University this week V. Kerry Smith Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict their Own Demise? Presentation by Phone Health Economics Workshop 3:30-5:00 pm Sheps Center, 3rd Floor Conference Room, UNC-CH Now you know what you can do with a Nobel prize! -- Mi

Re: rational expectations (acquiescence)

Yoshie Furuhashi wrote, > Studies have often shown that for every male diagnosed as suffering > from depression, two to six times as many females are so diagnosed. 1. Take this as a symptom of "the problem that has no name" (Friedan). Note the word "symptom" -- female depression exemplifies the

Re: Re: rational expectations

Charles Brown wrote: >It is an a posteriori truth that we are correct about more things >than our critics are. Why aren't there more of "us" then? Doug

Re: Re: rational expectations

Can't we just disagree without your reading me out of the club? I think many of your views are abhorrent and represent no socialism I would ever want anything to do with, but I don't deny that they represent a current of left thinking. You think that market socialism is a contradiction in terms

Re: Re: rational expectations

Timework Web wrote: >Michael Perelman wrote: > >> Holt, Jim. 2000. "Confidence Games: Why Your Self-Esteem Is Probably Too >> High." Lingua Franca, 10: 9 (April): p. 68. >> "Overconfidence is nearly universal. In fact, a study some years ago >> found that the only group of people free from i

Re: Re: rational expectations

Yoshie Furuhashi wrote: >What does this say about the "male list" of economists? Dunno, but I've never noticed that a lack of confidence was one of your own personal characteristics. Apropos of confidence: Boys will be Boys: Gende

Re: Re: rational expectations

G'day Yoshie, >What does this say about the "male list" of economists? Well, I don't reckon Pen-L is the first list to confront with this question. It's one of the few lists where discussion isn't generally confined to the lobbing of certainty-launched hand-grenades over certainty-built barrica

Re: Re: rational expectations

I don't feel confident that I can answer that! Could you give us a clue? Cheers, Ken Hanly Yoshie Furuhashi wrote: > > > What does this say about the "male list" of economists? > > Yoshie

Re: Re: rational expectations

Greetings Economists, Yoshie Furuhashi writes, Yoshie, I don't think it's a matter of whether "uncertainty" & "self-questioning" are good things. The point is that we are basically incapable of self-criticism. We can't see our own blind spots, unless others (be they live human beings or dea

Re: Re: rational expectations

Charles Brown wrote, responding to Yoshie: >I don't think it's a matter of whether "uncertainty" & >"self-questioning" are good things. The point is that we are >basically incapable of self-criticism. > >__ > >CB: We are dependent upon others for criticism. This is one of the >"advantag

Re: Re: rational expectations

A lot of people take this attitude, but I follow the dangerous course of reading my adversaries and taking them seriously. I have read Sommers (I have in fact met her) and I think she is an idiot. But I also read Hayek and Mises, and, as you all know, I have learned from them. This just for sta

Re: Re: rational expectations

Yoshie Furuhashi wrote: > > > >The more I think about this, the more I wonder: Doug, this seems misleading to me. The impression most of your posts over time have given is that you made up your mind years ago on this as a fundamental principle, from which no deviation was permissible. You seem

Re: Re: rational expectations

Hi Yoshie, >I do take the best & brightest of our enemies seriously, but taking them >seriously doesn't necessarily lead one to revise one's convictions >radically. The best & brightest of our enemies (from ancients to >moderns), for me, have a virtue of clarifying what we are up >against.

Re: Re: Rational expectations

The study of economics began with Alfred Marshall. Marshall was upset that untrained people could comments on political economy, so he took a little-known term, economics, and formalized the training of future economists at Cambridge. Today, the World Conference of Economists ostracizes anybody

Re: Re: rational expectations

In a message dated 8/3/00 6:18:18 PM Eastern Daylight Time, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes: << Right, so I read his damn book. Several of them. I thought about them, >more than they deserved, and concluded he was an idiot. why didn't you say so from the beginning, rather than coming off as a flip

Re: RE: Rational expectations

gt; persons who have a free-market orientation. > > -Original Message- > From: Doug Henwood [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] > Sent: Friday, 4 August 2000 12:23 > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Subject: [PEN-L:246] Re: Re: Re: Rational expectations > > > Michael Perelman

Re: Re: rational expectations

In a message dated 8/3/00 7:22:35 PM Eastern Daylight Time, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes: << Jim D. wrote: "who is it that determines who a "real authority" is? Is there a World Congress of Philosophers who makes this decision?" >> * * * A very interesting question. Steve Shapin has explored t

RE: RE: Rational expectations

EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: [PEN-L:248] RE: Rational expectations Do people see the commercialisation of universities in order to obtain basic funding and research $$ as a threat to the independence of staff appointments? You would expect that backers would favour appointment of persons who hav

Re: Re: rational expectations

Yoshie Furuhashi wrote: > > _If_ our critics are indeed right about something, yes, we should > revise our views; if not, no. Let's use Hayek as an example, since > we had threads on him recently. As our disagreements over Hayek have > shown, it is _not_ that Marxist critics of Hayek think th

Re: Re: rational expectations

>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] 08/03/00 04:38PM >>> Can't we just disagree without your reading me out of the club? ))) CB: I don't particularly think of it as a club, but there are certain positions that tend to define us and them. When you start supporting the other side on critical issues

[PEN-L:82] rational expectations

>From a piece on "knockout options" in the foreign exchange markets by Allan M. Malz in the NY Fed's Current Issues in Economics & Finance (vol. 1, no. 4, July 1995): "This episode in the option market raises another important issue: the usefulness of implied volatilities as an indicator of marke

[PEN-L:1080] rational expectations

if the theory of rational expectations really worked, then Robert Lucas wouldn't have agreed to give his ex-wife 1/2 of his expected Nobel Prize loot when he divorced her. ;-) -- Jim Devine

rational expectations or moonstruck economics?

"Are Investors Moonstruck? - Lunar Phases and Stock Returns" BY: KATHY YUAN University of Michigan Business School LU ZHENG University of Michigan QIAOQIAO ZHU University of Michigan Department of F

RE: Frontiers of Rational Expectations

Title: RE: [PEN-L:32019] Frontiers of Rational Expectations obviously, one's own demise can be -- and is -- predicted by rational individuals. Using all of the information available, they can predict the day and minute of death _on average_, so that the expected death-time equals the exp

RE: Frontiers of rational expectations

What I want to know is: is there any money in a correct prediction and if there is, how does one collect if one is dead? Tom Walker 604 255 4812

rational expectations and market efficiency

'THE GAME OF THE NAME' A study by a group of finance professors at Purdue University shows that companies that shed their dot-com names, or some other hip, New Economy variation like E*twoMEDIA, saw their share prices rise 15.8% the day the news hit the market and a total of 21.6% in the 30 days

Re: Re: Re: rational expectations

Doug Henwood wrote: > Charles Brown wrote: > > >It is an a posteriori truth that we are correct about more things > >than our critics are. > > Why aren't there more of "us" then? Is it all the left's fault that a majority of Americans believe in god, creationism, and astrology? It is becoming

Re: Re: Re: rational expectations

Title: Re: [PEN-L:2] Re: Re: rational expectations Greetings Economists,    Doug Henwood responds this way to Yoshie when she writes about "overconfidence", Doug Henwood, Dunno, but I've never noticed that a lack of confidence was one of your own personal characteristics. Doy

Re: Re: Re: rational expectations

En relación a [PEN-L:2] Re: Re: rational expectations, el 30 Jul 00, a las 6:18, Doug Henwood dijo: > Yoshie Furuhashi wrote: > > >What does this say about the "male list" of economists? > > Dunno, but I've never noticed that a lack of confidence was one of &g

Re: Re: Re: rational expectations

[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: > A lot of people take this attitude, but I follow the dangerous course of reading my >adversaries and taking them seriously. Up to about 1640 (and on the assumption that only Europe counted) it would have been at least theoretically possible for someone to make this

Re: Re: Re: rational expectations

I dob't want to get into this beyong what I say here, but, as I have explained variously, Bhaskar is a fool who is not taken seriously by real philosophers of science outside his cult, which mystifies me. I should explain that I was trained as a philosopher of science in the US and the UK--by K

RE: Re: Re: rational expectations

jks . . . Can't we just disagree without your reading me out of the club? Dontcha know, if they want you as a member, it's not worth joining. P. Wilson

Re: Re: Re: Rational expectations

Michael Perelman wrote: >When is the last time that a leftist economist has been hired at a major >university economics department? When I was in Frankfurt in June, I talked a bit with a left German economist, who told me the local profession was being totally Americanized, in both content and

RE: Re: RE: Rational expectations

What's the title Michael? -Original Message- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: None To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: [PEN-L:250] Re: RE: Rational expectations That is a major theme in my book on intellectual property. > > Do people see the commercia

Re: Re: Re: rational expectations

Carroll, you will persist in misunderstanding. There are errors and errors. I think that many people are wrong about many things--you, often, Charles, often, Yoshie, frequently. Among us, that just indicates disagreement. i think Hayek was wrong about private property, but I don't think he was

[PEN-L:844] critique rational expectations

Would anyone out there be interested in writing a summary and critique of rational expectations (re the Nobel prize) for Dollars and Sense? Would probably run in our "Primer" column, could be from 700 to 1,400 words. Please reply to my attention. Thanks. Marc Breslow, Editor.

[PEN-L:1082] Re: rational expectations

Hey, did you ever think that maybe _she_ came up with the theory? :) Anders Schneiderman On Sat, 21 Oct 1995, James Devine wrote: > if the theory of rational expectations really worked, then Robert > Lucas wouldn't have agreed to give his ex-wife 1/2 of his expected &

[PEN-L:1089] Re: rational expectations

On Sat, 21 Oct 1995, James Devine wrote: > if the theory of rational expectations really worked, then Robert > Lucas wouldn't have agreed to give his ex-wife 1/2 of his expected > Nobel Prize loot when he divorced her. ;-) > > -- Jim Devine It

Re: Re: Re: Re: rational expectations

Nestor Miguel Gorojovsky wrote: >I guess this is what would be taken as a funny remark in Manhattan. >For me it is just a demonstration that lack of confidence is expected >in women, and that only exceptional "specimens" (sorry, Yoshie, just >trying to be clear) escape it. As we say in Spanish, i

Re: Re: Re: Re: rational expectations

Nestor Miguel Gorojovsky wrote: >En relación a [PEN-L:2] Re: Re: rational expectations, >el 30 Jul 00, a las 6:18, Doug Henwood dijo: > >> Yoshie Furuhashi wrote: >> >> >What does this say about the "male list" of economists? >> >> Dunno,

Re: Re: Re: Re: rational expectations

Yeah, Carroll, I have read, and indeed studied, a lot of Stalin as well as Lenin. Not only was I a Sovietologist, I was in and out of some outfits where Stalin was "in." I can still give you chapter and verse on various outre Stalinist views, such as his linguistic theories. Anyway, you wil

Re: Re: Re: Re: rational expectations

At 10:43 AM 08/03/2000 -0400, you wrote: >I dob't want to get into this beyong what I say here, but, as I have >explained variously, Bhaskar is a fool who is not taken seriously by real >philosophers of science outside his cult, which mystifies me. I should >explain that I was trained as a phil

Re: Re: Re: Re: Rational expectations

Japan grew very fast in the postwar period because its previous economists were mostly excluded because of their fascist past, leading to a void that Marxist trained economists filled. Eventually, Japan started hiring mostly orthodox economists and their economy slowed down. During the Depressio

Re: RE: Re: RE: Rational expectations

It is about 95% complete. The working title is Intellectual Property Amidst Poverty. > > What's the title Michael? > > -Original Message- > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] > Sent: None > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Subject: [PEN-L:250]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: rational expectations

Nestor's sounding pretty orange these days... Steve On Mon, 31 Jul 2000, Doug Henwood wrote: > Nestor Miguel Gorojovsky wrote: > > >I guess this is what would be taken as a funny remark in Manhattan. > >For me it is just a demonstration that lack of confidence is expected > >in women, and that

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: rational expectations

Look, Jim, I often defer to your economics expertise--not always, but often. If you tell me that someone is a crank with no respectable following in econ, I will be inclined to go along with you, since you are a real expert. Expertise is, after all, a legitimate basis of appeal to authority. Th

RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Rational expectations

95% completeonly 95% to go;) -Original Message- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: None To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: [PEN-L:253] Re: RE: Re: RE: Rational expectations It is about 95% complete. The working title is Intellectual Property Amidst Poverty

[PEN-L:2777] Short reading on rational expectations

Blair asks for a short, simple critique of rational expectations suitable for undergrads. As arrogant and annoying as he often is, a nice concise criticism of right wing macroeconomics can be found in Paul Krugman's (1994) book _Peddling Prosperity_ published by Norton. Chapter 8 deals wit

Plain Text version of Re: Re: rational expectations

Greetings Economists, I will no longer use HTML to color something I am quoting. I dislike the < next to quotes, so I will continue to cut and paste unless that is also causing problems. I understand now that the styling of the text causes problems. I will no longer do that. Thanks for the

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: rational expectations

Justin wrote: >Look, Jim, I often defer to your economics expertise--not always, but >often. If you tell me that someone is a crank with no respectable >following in econ, I will be inclined to go along with you, since you are >a real expert. Expertise is, after all, a legitimate basis of appea

Re: Plain Text version of Re: Re: rational expectations

Thanks. This is easy to read. > > Greetings Economists, > I will no longer use HTML to color something I am quoting. I dislike > the < next to quotes, so I will continue to cut and paste unless that is > also causing problems. I understand now that the styling of the text causes > problems

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: rational expectations

No, philosophy has even less consensus than economics. So it tells you something when practically nobody takes B seriously, eh? And not just because of his political orientation. People who share his general political orientation--all those Marxists or then-Marxists I mentioned--have no respect

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: rational expectations

At 05:09 PM 8/3/00 -0400, you wrote: >No, philosophy has even less consensus than economics. So it tells you >something when practically nobody takes B seriously, eh? And not just >because of his political orientation. People who share his general >political orientation--all those Marxists or t

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: rational expectations

> Nonetheless, it's best to make criticisms with _content_. When it's worth doing. It's information to know that someone's viewsare not worth paying attention to. >Also, I understand that in the past, there have been philosophers who were rejected by the vast majority but later turned out t

Re: what is 'orange'?Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: rational expectations

En relación a [PEN-L:37] what is 'orange'?Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: R, el 31 Jul 00, a las 12:33, Stephen E Philion dijo: > > el 31 Jul 00, a las 9:48, Stephen E Philion dijo: > > > > > Nestor's sounding pretty orange these days... > > > > > > Steve > > > > Since the quip is on myself, what is this