Lennart Thornros <lenn...@thornros.com> wrote:
> You go to three experts and the one who gives the correct answer is the > REAL expert. That is the problem in a nutshell - experts are often wrong > even if they say they are experts and it is hard to see which one is THE > expert. I assume you did not go to the two first experts even as you know > they were less of an exper,t than the third one:) > Suppose all three had given me the same advice. I would be a fool to claim that I know better, wouldn't I? Suppose I were to go several hundred doctors, and almost every one of them recommended the same treatment? I would be insane not to believe them. To take a real-life medical example, the vast majority of doctors will tell you it is good idea to vaccinate your children. Only a few dangerous quack doctors will disagree. You should definitely go with the majority consensus, because you do not want to see your child die in agony from tetanus. In the case of global warming, nearly every expert agrees. Okay, you will find a small minority who disagree, but as a non-expert, you should go with the consensus. Getting back to the actual case of my rash, the second doctor, a GP, said to me: "Well if it is not getting better, why don't you go see Dr. So-and-so? He knows a lot about rashes." It is the mark of a true expert that he knows the limits of his own knowledge. He does not suffer from the Dunning-Kruger effect. He knows what he does not know. - Jed
