Okay, maybe the alien thing was a little uncalled for... I wasn't trying to be a fatalist; I just think that Juniper has to do a hell of a lot more punching before they're even a contender. There is a lot of technology out there competing to be the next big thing and Juniper is just another face in the crowd when it comes to that. With every success you mentioned, I'm sure a little research will dig up a dozen or so failures that were trying to accomplish similar goals. How many times have technologies... GOOD technologies... come and gone because other factors (economic, internal, etc.) caused their downfall? It's a little like Linux trying to take over the desktop market; it doesn't matter how much I like it and hate Microsoft because it's just not likely to happen, even if it is a better product and free to boot. In the current economic climate, people are becoming more conservative, and so need proof that new equipment will add value to their company. Cisco has diversified so much and proven themselves so consistently that I can't honestly see Juniper as having anything more than a niche in the market. Others can rush out to get their Juniper cert, but it sounds to me like a waste of time and money. Getting your Cisco certs doesn't automatically mean you'll make a lot of money either, but I've been pretty successful with Cisco certs and products; from a conservative standpoint, I'm going with what I know and what has worked for me. I concede that Juniper could, possibly (if improbably) pull ahead of Cisco as the premier networking hardware company in the world, but it's not worth jumping on the bandwagon for just yet.
-----Original Message----- From: nrf [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: Tuesday, October 02, 2001 9:59 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Re: Is the CCIE really worth it??? [7:3485] Hey, by that same token, nobody should ever take a chance at anything new, and should always stick to their old skills. Nobody should ever take a shot on something new. For example, I remember back when Microsoft launched the first Windows NT, I suppose you would argue that you shouldn't learn NT, but should stick with Netware. Or when Cisco was still in a grudge match with Wellfleet, 3com, or Cabletron, then you would advocate not studying Cisco until it was clear that there were going to win. Or when UNIX started to challenge the mainframe paradigm, then anybody who decided to learn UNIX must be dumb. But we've all seen the history. The first few hundred MCSE's enjoyed a disproportionate amount of rewards from the program. The people who learned Cisco back in the late 80's/early 90's (before everybody else did) have benefitted greatly. The first people to pick up UNIX enjoyed outsize benefits. Somebody on this board said that, when it comes to the marketplace, certs and skills are basically a pyramid scheme, where the first people to get in on it tend to reap most of the benefits, and those who come in too late get the shaft. Now by this I am not saying that Juniper will win. Like I said, I don't know what will happen in the future. They might win, they might lose, who knows? If you feel that spending time to pick up Juniper skills is too risky for you, then fine, don't do it. But you must agree that if Juniper really does win, then those who got in early will benefit. And why is it so inconceivable that they won't win? They have better technology and good management, kind of like Cisco in its youth. Now that doesn't guarantee anything, but it definitely does not make the possibility of them winning ridiculous. You analogy of aliens was uncalled for. Using your logic, I could argue that nobody should ever bother to learn anything (Cisco,Juniper, Microsoft, etc.), because tomorrow there might be a nuclear war. ""Mossburg, Geoff (CEI-Atlanta)"" wrote in message [EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]... > And the alien ships could possibly land tomorrow, but I'm not mowing > "LAND HERE!" in my lawn in anticipation of it happening. I not going to > go out and buy Juniper's stock just on the off-chance that they MIGHT be > able to consistently build a better product, or they MIGHT eventually be > able to run Cisco out of town on a rail, or that they MIGHT be able to > overcome the worst economy in decades. It would be just SWELL if life > worked that way, but I'm not placing any bets just yet. > > -----Original Message----- > From: nrf [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] > Sent: Tuesday, October 02, 2001 8:44 PM > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Subject: Re: Is the CCIE really worth it??? [7:3485] > > > About Juniper losing market share. Well, the same could be said for > Microsoft or Cisco or anybody else. Sure Juniper might disappear. On > the > other hand, Juniper might take over the core routing world, and become > dominant in edge routing. Why not? Cisco was able to take over the > networking industry in a relatively short amount of time (they only > IPO'd in > 1986, they were dominant by the mid-90's), and if Juniper has the > consensus > best technology in the industry, then is it really impossible for > Juniper to > do what Cisco did? Now I am not saying that they are guaranteed to do > so, > I'm just saying that it's possible. If this happens, then you would > agree > that anybody who knows Juniper will be sitting pretty. The point is, > who's > to say what is going to happen in the future? All anybody really can > say > for sure is that Juniper has a strong position in the marketplace, and > that > position could get stronger or weaker in the future. Who knows? > > > > > About your comments on experience. Of course it is true that experience > is > important. But at the same time, it is also true that, holding > experience > constant, some skills are quite frankly more valuable than others, and > that > could be due to that skill being in high demand, or in short supply, or > both. For example JNCIE's tend to have many years of experience in > high-end > core backbone routing, whereas MCSE's tend to have experience in desktop > management/LAN sys-admin, etc. I believe it is the case that years of > core > backbone routing are on average more valuable than an equivalent number > of > years of being a LAN sys-admin. Now I know that might make some of you > upset, and you will point out that some MCSE sys-admins make huge > amounts of > money, and of course that is true. But I'm just talking about the > averages > here. The reason for this discrepancy is clear. It is damn hard to > break > into the world of core routing, whereas it is relatively easy to become > a > sysadmin. Therefore there is a much larger pool of sysadmins that > overcomes > the greater demand for sysadmins. The inexorable laws of supply and > demand - a high demand can be overwhelmed by an even higher supply. > > I'll give you an extreme example. People with 20 years of experience in > practicing medicine or practicing law are going to make more on average > than > somebody with 20 years of experience in manual labor. Why? It's not > because there is more demand for medicine or law than there is manual > labor, > because that's obviously not true. There is clearly more demand for > manual > labor than there is demand for doctors or lawyers. So it's not the > demand > side of the equation that is at play here. Rather it's supply - there > are > so many more manual laborers than there are doctors and lawyers, and > this > supply 'glut' overwhelmes the greater demand for them. The point here > is > that even with equivalent experience, some skills are more valuable than > others, and the reason for that is often due to constricted supply - a > skill > may be valuable not because there is a gigantic demand for it, but > because > quite frankly, nobody else has that skill. I know that seems harsh, but > that's reality. > > > > > > > > > > > ""Baker, Jason"" wrote in message > [EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]... > > and you forgot to add Juniper might fall over, due to economic reasons > as > > they > > do not have a huge market share and might not be around in > months/years to > > come. > > > > and 225k for a newly certified Juniper person with little to no > experience > > is a bit much, so i am assuming > > that the person has more skills and knowledge, so this is not really > > comparable to the MCSE now is it ? AS you > > are not just comparing the cert you are comparing on the person > > knowledge/sill set which varies > > hence why you see people with different certs paid varying levels. > > > > What it is really boils down to, is how much each company is willing > to > fork > > out for employees and what > > they bring to the company. > > > > So saying the juniper cert will get you 225k is WRONG. > > > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > From: nrf [SMTP:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] > > > Sent: Wednesday, 3 October 2001 7:26 am > > > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > Subject: Re: Is the CCIE really worth it??? [7:3485] > > > > > > By the same token, you could say that the Juniper JNCIE is > completely > > > worthless compared to the MCSE, cuz like you said there are a hell > of a > > > lot > > > more Windows boxes to babysit than Juniper routers. Yet, the > average > > > JNCIE > > > takes in well over $225,000 per annum, which is rather higher than > the > > > average MCSE, I would say (sure, some super-MCSE's make more, but > I'm > > > talking averages here). The reason behind this is clear to me - > while > > > there > > > is clearly less demand for Juniper-trained people, this is easily > > > compensated for by the ridiculously low supply of JNCIE's (17 at > last > > > count, > > > 2 or 3 new ones minted every month). > > > > > > Or, yet another analogy. There is massive demand for low-skilled > labor > in > > > the country, more than for CCIE's, more than for MCSE's, more than > for > > > anything. Flipping burgers, mopping floors, stocking shelves, > bussing > > > tables, picking fruit, that kind of thing. Every company could use > an > > > extra > > > pair of hands. Sure, you can say that more companies have PC's to > take > > > care > > > of, but not routers. But at the same time, even more companies > don't > have > > > PC's to take care of, but have unskilled labor to do (i.e. > restaurants, > > > department stores, farms, supermarkets, etc.) So from the > really > high > > > demand for this manual labor, can you assume that on average these > jobs > > > pay > > > well (or at least higher than minimum wage)? No, of course not, and > > > that's > > > because of the massive amount of supply of unskilled labor out > there, > > > which > > > keeps wages low. Almost anybody can mop a floor or bus a table. > So > the > > > high demand is swamped by the gigantic supply of available > manpower. > The > > > point is that you cannot look at the demand side alone, you must > factor > in > > > the supply side as well. > > > > > > Now, there's no doubt, the market has crashed more for the CCIE than > the > > > MCSE. But even after the crash what I see is that CCIE's still pull > in > > > more > > > than MCSE's do, and with much less competition (i.e. when my buddies > apply > > > for a Microsoft-admin job, there are 40-50 other dudes competing > with > them > > > for the same job, but when I apply for a CCIE-type job, there are > maybe > > > only > > > 2-3 candidates, and sometimes none) . This is a natural consequence > that > > > it > > > is much harder to find a Cisco guy than a Microsoft guy, and this > still > > > compensates for the fewer Cisco jobs that are around. > > > > > > Now you might say that the demand for Cisco will continue to fall, > and > > > ultimately the CCIE will not mean much. Sure, that's absolutely > possible. > > > But then, you might also say that things might happen in the > Microsoft > > > world > > > to make MCSE's less valuable. For example, Novell might make a > comeback > > > with Netware6 and eat into the market share of NT/2000. Microsoft > might > > > run > > > into more trouble with the Justice Department, and this might > hamstring > > > them > > > because they will be more worried about fighting in court than in > > > developing > > > their products, and competitors might use this valuable time to > produce > a > > > viable competitive product (i.e. Linux with a version of Samba that > is > > > fully > > > compatible with W2Kserver, including AD). The point is that nobody > really > > > knows what the future will bring, so it is difficult to make > judgements > > > based on what is going to happen in the future. We only know what > is > > > happening now, and right now, CCIE-level jobs still pay better than > > > MCSE-level jobs, although admittedly the gap is not as wide as > before. > > > But > > > the fact that the gap exists at all is prima-facie evidence that the > low > > > supply of CCIE's is compensating for the lower demand for them. > > > > > > > > > > > > ""Donald B Johnson jr"" wrote in message > > > [EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]... > > > > Yeah an MCSE on every corner and 1000 Windows boxes in the > building > > > behind. > > > > I was talking to some buddies in the last big market I worked in > (I > live > > > in > > > > a poh-dunk town now) and people with current Microsoft skills are > very > > > much > > > > in demand. > > > > The infrastructure guys are hurting, remember when the market went > down > > > it > > > > was the infrastructure, Internet, and Provider companies that > > > nose-dived, > > > > the mom-an-pops with 200-500Workstations, 10 servers, a couple > switches, > > > an > > > > access router and a real non-internet related business are still > going > > > > strong. They need user connectivity, (not MPLS, OC-12 or the like) > they > > > need > > > > database access, email, and system management product specialists. > I > > > think > > > > we all got caught in the Microsoft is OK but the really cool stuff > is > > > Cisco, > > > > but then we found out that buying pickles and everything else on > the > net > > > > wasn't flying. Yo I heard Novell is doing some really cool stuff. > > > Reminds > > > me > > > > of a movie where the handsome Earl Flynn was made to walk the > plank by > > > the > > > > ugly green-toothed pirates. > > > > MCSE + I - till they rip the 4.0 out of my hand. > > > > CNE 4.11 - already stripped > > > > CCN/DP - current > > > > CCIE 6/8/02 - first attempt > > > > Don > > > > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > > From: ; > > > > To: ; ; > > > > Sent: Monday, October 01, 2001 8:45 PM > > > > Subject: Fwd: Is the CCIE really worth it??? [7:3485] > > > > > > > > > > > > > On a whim I took the CCIE written this past Saturday. Didn't > pass > but > > > I > > > > do > > > > > believe the exam is far to easy. YES, to easy!! I came up a > couple > > > > answers > > > > > short but really put no effort into preparing for the exam!! > > > > > When I lost my job last year due to downsizing I weighed my > options; > > > MCSE > > > > or > > > > > CCIE...finished CCNP on April 30th so I guess that tells you my > > > choice... > > > > > HOWEVER, after getting the CCNP I began doing some job hunting, > EVERY > > > > > potential employer wanted MCSE/MCP and didn't care one way or > the > > > other > > > > > about > > > > > Cisco certs. I'm 48 yrs. old and really didn't care much about > the > > > MCSE > > > > > because of the perceptions you stated (an MCSE on every corner), > > > however > > > I > > > > > read several Microsoft books this summer (NT, W2K Pro, Exchange > 5.5 > & > > > > 2000) > > > > > but haven't attempted any exams. > > > > > Anyway back to CCIE, aside from the CCNP studies, which I > finished > in > > > the > > > > > spring, I read mostly from the Cisco CD (Internetworking > Technology > > > > > Overview, > > > > > Case Studies, Design etc) and Lou's Token Ring paper (Thank You > Dennis > > > for > > > > > the TR quizzes) but DID NOT read any of the popular books i.e. > Halibi, > > > > > Caslow, Doyle endorsed here. I didn't read them for a reason > and > that > > > was > > > > > to > > > > > see if I could pass WITHOUT their input and if I hadn't > scr*&^ewed > up > > > a > > > > > couple security questions I would have passed AND THEN I would > really > > > have > > > > > been PISSED....having a qualification to THE LAB and basically > only > > > > > theoretical knowledge base. I chose the CCIE route BECAUSE it > was > > > > supposed > > > > > to be the crown jewel of networking!!! > > > > > > > > > > my .02 worth > > > > > > > > > > Rick > > > > > > > > > > In a message dated 10/1/01 12:50:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time, > > > > > [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I agree with what you are saying, however there is a > difference > > > between > > > > > > having to work hard for something, and having it so that there > are > > > only > > > > > 6000 > > > > > > of them in the world... > > > > > > The MCSE has lost respect within the IT industry, however if > you > > > want > > > a > > > > > > serious admin job, it is the most sought after certification. > The > > > CCIE > > > > > will > > > > > > always be a well respected certification. The fact that so > few > > > people > > > > have > > > > > > it is in some ways harmful because human resources departments > and > > > > managers > > > > > > outside the tech industry haven't always heard of it. I have > seen > > > > people > > > > > > get interviews for high level network engineering positions > that > > > were > > > > CCNAs > > > > > > before CCIEs got the interview. This is because HR has heard > of > the > > > > CCNA > > > > > > and doesn't know what a CCIE is... > > > > > > I'm not saying they should water down the test, nor do I > believe > > > they > > > > are > > > > > > doing so. However, I do believe that more is better to a > certain > > > > degree. > > > > > > 6000 to 7000 CCIEs in the world is silly. There can very > easily > be > > > 10 > > > > > times > > > > > > that and the demand for certified, well trained engineers will > still > > > be > > > > > > there ;-) Just my opinion. > > > > > > Regards, > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > > > > From: Logan, Harold [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] > > > > > > Sent: Monday, October 01, 2001 12:27 PM > > > > > > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > > > Subject: RE: Is the CCIE really worth it??? [3:3485] > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I disagree. I'm working towards the CCIE, and I want it to be > hard. > > > I > > > > > > want to have to work for it. The last CCNP exam I took was the > > > > > > Support/Troubleshooting exam, and I wanted my money back. The > couple > > > of > > > > > > hours I put into studying for it were nothing but wasted time. > > > > > > > > > > > > In any line of work, supply and demand rule the market. The > more > > > IE's > > > > > > there are out there, the less they'll be making. Not only > that, > but > > > we > > > > > > lowly CCNP's and CCDP's can probably expect even less. You > point > out > > > > > > that there are way more doctors, lawyers, etc... well, there's > more > > > of > > > a > > > > > > demand for doctors and lawyers. It's a simple comparison: ask > > > yourself > > > > > > how many people in a given population get sick or decide to > sue > > > someone, > > > > > > and compare that to the number of people who need a network > > > designed. > > > > > > > > > > > > What's more, the easier any cert exam is to obtain, the worse > its > > > > > > reputation becomes; just ask Microsoft. It'll be years before > the > > > MCSE > > > > > > is a respected certification again... why? Because it was too > easy > > > to > > > > > > get. Everyone's got a story about an MCSE who talked big but > > > couldn't > > > > > > edit an LMHosts file, or couldn't set up a trust relationship, > or > > > > > > couldn't install a NIC. If the IE truly does get easier, how > long > > > will > > > > > > it be before everyone has a similar story about a CCIE?I for > one > > > hope > > > > > > Cisco keeps the lab challenging... I want the IE, but I want > to > work > > > for > > > > > > it. > > > > > > > > > > > > Hal Logan > > > > > > Network Specialist / Adjunct Faculty > > > > > > Computing and Engineering Technology > > > > > > Manatee Community College > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > > > > > From: Marshal Schoener [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] > > > > > > > Sent: Sunday, September 30, 2001 3:30 PM > > > > > > > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > > > > Subject: RE: Is the CCIE really worth it??? [3:3485] > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What is funny is that people are concerned with the > > > > > > > possibility of 5 digit > > > > > > > amounts of CCIEs at all. > > > > > > > Considering there are way more doctors, lawyers, salesman, > > > > > > > brokers, etc etc > > > > > > > etc etc etc in just about every small city than there are > > > > > > > CCIEs world wide, > > > > > > > it doesn't seem something very logical to worry about. > > > > > > > In fact, to a certain degree it is better off to have more > > > > > > > than there are > > > > > > > now for sales-marketing reasons... > > > > > > > Another thing is that just because the format changes, > > > > > > > doesn't mean the test > > > > > > > is going to become easier. It may in fact become harder... > > > > > > > > > > > > > > For those of you that are really worried about this (which I > > > > > > > honestly find > > > > > > > hard to imagine) why don't you look into the > specializations. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Regards, Message Posted at: http://www.groupstudy.com/form/read.php?f=7&i=21784&t=3485 -------------------------------------------------- FAQ, list archives, and subscription info: http://www.groupstudy.com/list/cisco.html Report misconduct and Nondisclosure violations to [EMAIL PROTECTED]
