I understand that you can also make various models and use different assumptions than I did that lessen the disparity. But what I see is this. The disparity between the number of Cisco-trained people vs. Juniper-trained people vis-a-vis the demand for Cisco and Juniper skills is large enough that I believe that studying Juniper rather than Cisco is justified. It is the ridiculously low number of JNCIE's vs. the number of CCIE's that is the key to my entire analysis.
For example, let me propose the following model. You say that in my models I did not include older networks with existing legacy Cisco gear in them. OK, so let's say I try to adjust my model to include them - I will make the (very unrealistic) assumptions that not only has Cisco has sold $22 billion of equipment for the past year, but for every year for the past 15 years since their IPO, and let's furthermore assume that those 15-year old networks are still running (I am making the decision not to count any Cisco gear that was made before their IPO, because quite frankly I really don't think any of that stuff is being used by anybody). Now, these assumptions, I'm sure you would agree, are very unfair to Juniper, because obviously Cisco was not selling $22 billion of gear yearly in the late 80's/early 90's, and also that it is almost certainly not true that companies are really using Cisco gear that is more than a few years old. But anyway, let's just make these assumptions just to see what happens. Furthermore, let's make another unfair assumption that Juniper only existed for 1 year, and therefore there is only $1 billion of Juniper equipment out there. Again, unfair, because Juniper IPO's 2 years ago, and had sold equipment before that. But anyway, once again, let's make this assumption. So, then therefore we got $330 billion ($22billion/year * 15 years) of installed Cisco gear that needs to be maintained vs. $1 billion of Juniper gear. Once again, this would imply a proper ratio of 330:1 of CCIE's to JNCIE's. But again, what's the actual ratio? 380:1, according to the latest numbers (~6500 CCIE's vs. 17 JNCIE's). Oh, and another reason why my previous post's assumptions were unfair. Not only is a chunk of Cisco's revenue derived from equipment that is decoupled from the CCIE (i.e. ONS optical gear), but also much of Cisco's gear is low-end (800's, 1600's, etc.) and sold to small networks. Quite frankly, you don't really need a CCIE to set up a WAN with a couple of 1600's. On the other hand Juniper only sells to backbone providers, where network expertise is at a premium. I'm sure everybody would agree that designing a network for a provider's backbone implies a greater need for a guru than setting up a simple WAN for a SOHO. So once again, I believe there is a stronger relationship between every dollar of revenue that Juniper makes and demand for Juniper guru skills than there is between every dollar Cisco makes and demand for Cisco guru skills. So anyway, as far as the comparison of the JNCIE vs. the CCIE, I have completely stacked the deck against the JNCIE, using every unfair assumption in the book, and the JNCIE still wins. I've given Cisco every advantage, I have basically castrated Juniper, and the CCIE still doesn't pull even. Again, I reiterate, the key is the ridiculously low number of Juniper-trained people out there. This scarcity implies value - when you call in for a Cisco CCIE job, you probably got some competition for it, and the company can pick the best guy for the job, but when you call in for a Juniper JNCIE job, chances are you're probably the only candidate available and if the company insists on having a JNCIE do the job, they either have to hire you or nobody at all, because it's not like they can easily find another JNCIE to compete with you. Now, I'm sure some of you might say that the problem with my analysis is time - the JNCIE is newer, therefore fewer people have certified, but over time, the numbers will even out as more people get their JNCIE's. Well, not really. I see that every month, about 200 new CCIE's are minted. Whereas about 1 or 2 JNCIE's have created every month since the program started, and it doesn't seem like this rate is going to change anytime soon. Furthermore, I expect that when the one-day lab begins in earnest, there will be more CCIE's created every month - because if they can test twice as many candidates in a month with the same pass rate, then that necessarily doubles the number of new CCIE's per month. So I don't see that time is going to solve the problem anytime soon, and may actually make it worse. But anyway, my assumptions and models are just that - assumptions and models. I'm sure some of you out there have different assumptions and models. But my point is that a ratio of 380:1 is really difficult to wipe out, and if anybody can come up with a economic model that manages to account for this huge number, I am all ears. I have turned this issue over and over in my head. Believe me, as a CCIE myself, I'm not happy to say what I've said. I too want the CCIE to maintain its status as the top, most prestigious guru-level cert around. When I was first confronted with the stats about the JNCIE , I didn't want to believe them either (just like for the longest time, I didn't want to believe that Juniper's routers were better than Cisco's routers). But no matter how I look at it an analyze it, I cannot escape the logic that knowledge of Juniper skills is simply more valuable than knowledge of Cisco skills because of reasons of scarcity (all other things being equal, of course). I am not happy about that, and I wish this wasn't true. But it seems quite likely to me that it is true. ""John Kaberna"" wrote in message [EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]... > You have a fundamental flaw in your comparison of sales. You are only > looking at 1 year of sales. If you compare the amount of equipment > currently running you will find a much greater percentage than 22:1. I'm > sure there are plenty of JNCIE's that make 200+ a year. But, I am just > doubting that is an average that's all. I do not believe that the average > JNCIE makes double what a CCIE makes. If that's really true I'm going to go > learn Juniper. > > John Kaberna > CCIE #7146 > NETCG Inc. > Cisco Premier Partner > www.netcginc.com > (415) 750-3800 > > __________________ > CCIE Security Training > www.netcginc.com/training.htm > > > ""nrf"" wrote in message > [EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]... > > Well, I can't prove that salary number to you. But just consider some of > > these facts. There are only 17 JNCIE's in the world right now . The > demand > > for Juniper skills is clearly there, as according to Yahoo Finance, > Juniper > > sold $1 billion of revenue in the last 12 months, so clearly somebody has > > been buying their stuff. Again, according to Yahoo, Cisco sold $22 > billion > > of stuff in the last 12 months, for a ratio of 22:1 in sales vis-a-vis > > Juniper. A very simplistic assumption would be that if Cisco sells 22 > > times more stuff, then there should be 22 times more CCIE's than JNCIE's > for > > the supply-demand curves of each to be equivalent. Yet right now, there > are > > about 6500 CCIE's, for a ratio of about 380:1, or about 17 times higher > than > > what would be the case if the supply-demand curves were equivalent. > > > > > > Now, we both know that CCIE's make good money. There is a lot of dispute > > about exactly how much, but we both know it's rather high. Now, consider > a > > situation where the number of CCIE's was decreased to 1/17 of what it is > > now. In such a world. I don't think it is at all outrageous to think > that > > CCIE's would make $225,000 a year, or even more, in that kind of world. > > > > Now I actually think that the above assumption is actually biased in favor > > of Cisco. This is because quite a bit of their revenue is drawn from > > products that have nothing to do with the CCIE program. For example the > ONS > > optical stuff. Or IP telephony. Sales of this gear would imply a greater > > demand for people who know those skills, but not necessarily CCIE's (I, > for > > example, know almost nothing about the ONS line). Whereas Juniper > > basically sells only routers, and router components. So there is a much > > clearer link between the JNCIE and Juniper sales than there is the CCIE > and > > Cisco sales. I would actually argue that the real ratio of CCIE's to > JNCIE"s > > should actually be substantially less than 22:1, which therefore makes the > > accompanying analysis even more stark and slanted in favor of the JNCIE. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ""John Kaberna"" wrote in message > > [EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]... > > > I'd like to add that I highly doubt that any of the JNCIE's have little > to > > > no experience. It's not like there is a ton of training materials and > > > bootcamps out there. The JNCIE's have to rely on real experience far > more > > > than the CCIE or any other cert. But, I do think that 225k as an > average > > is > > > very high. I'd be willing to be it's not within 50k of that number. > > > > > > John Kaberna > > > CCIE #7146 > > > NETCG Inc. > > > Cisco Premier Partner > > > www.netcginc.com > > > (415) 750-3800 > > > > > > __________________ > > > CCIE Security Training > > > www.netcginc.com/training.htm > > > > > > > > > ""Baker, Jason"" wrote in message > > > [EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]... > > > > and you forgot to add Juniper might fall over, due to economic reasons > > as > > > > they > > > > do not have a huge market share and might not be around in > months/years > > to > > > > come. > > > > > > > > and 225k for a newly certified Juniper person with little to no > > experience > > > > is a bit much, so i am assuming > > > > that the person has more skills and knowledge, so this is not really > > > > comparable to the MCSE now is it ? AS you > > > > are not just comparing the cert you are comparing on the person > > > > knowledge/sill set which varies > > > > hence why you see people with different certs paid varying levels. > > > > > > > > What it is really boils down to, is how much each company is willing > to > > > fork > > > > out for employees and what > > > > they bring to the company. > > > > > > > > So saying the juniper cert will get you 225k is WRONG. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > > > From: nrf [SMTP:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, 3 October 2001 7:26 am > > > > > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > > Subject: Re: Is the CCIE really worth it??? [7:3485] > > > > > > > > > > By the same token, you could say that the Juniper JNCIE is > completely > > > > > worthless compared to the MCSE, cuz like you said there are a hell > of > > a > > > > > lot > > > > > more Windows boxes to babysit than Juniper routers. Yet, the > average > > > > > JNCIE > > > > > takes in well over $225,000 per annum, which is rather higher than > the > > > > > average MCSE, I would say (sure, some super-MCSE's make more, but > I'm > > > > > talking averages here). The reason behind this is clear to me - > while > > > > > there > > > > > is clearly less demand for Juniper-trained people, this is easily > > > > > compensated for by the ridiculously low supply of JNCIE's (17 at > last > > > > > count, > > > > > 2 or 3 new ones minted every month). > > > > > > > > > > Or, yet another analogy. There is massive demand for low-skilled > > labor > > > in > > > > > the country, more than for CCIE's, more than for MCSE's, more than > for > > > > > anything. Flipping burgers, mopping floors, stocking shelves, > > bussing > > > > > tables, picking fruit, that kind of thing. Every company could use > an > > > > > extra > > > > > pair of hands. Sure, you can say that more companies have PC's to > > take > > > > > care > > > > > of, but not routers. But at the same time, even more companies > don't > > > have > > > > > PC's to take care of, but have unskilled labor to do (i.e. > > restaurants, > > > > > department stores, farms, supermarkets, etc.) So from the > really > > > high > > > > > demand for this manual labor, can you assume that on average these > > jobs > > > > > pay > > > > > well (or at least higher than minimum wage)? No, of course not, and > > > > > that's > > > > > because of the massive amount of supply of unskilled labor out > there, > > > > > which > > > > > keeps wages low. Almost anybody can mop a floor or bus a table. > So > > > the > > > > > high demand is swamped by the gigantic supply of available > manpower. > > > The > > > > > point is that you cannot look at the demand side alone, you must > > factor > > > in > > > > > the supply side as well. > > > > > > > > > > Now, there's no doubt, the market has crashed more for the CCIE than > > the > > > > > MCSE. But even after the crash what I see is that CCIE's still pull > > in > > > > > more > > > > > than MCSE's do, and with much less competition (i.e. when my buddies > > > apply > > > > > for a Microsoft-admin job, there are 40-50 other dudes competing > with > > > them > > > > > for the same job, but when I apply for a CCIE-type job, there are > > maybe > > > > > only > > > > > 2-3 candidates, and sometimes none) . This is a natural consequence > > > that > > > > > it > > > > > is much harder to find a Cisco guy than a Microsoft guy, and this > > still > > > > > compensates for the fewer Cisco jobs that are around. > > > > > > > > > > Now you might say that the demand for Cisco will continue to fall, > and > > > > > ultimately the CCIE will not mean much. Sure, that's absolutely > > > possible. > > > > > But then, you might also say that things might happen in the > Microsoft > > > > > world > > > > > to make MCSE's less valuable. For example, Novell might make a > > comeback > > > > > with Netware6 and eat into the market share of NT/2000. Microsoft > > might > > > > > run > > > > > into more trouble with the Justice Department, and this might > > hamstring > > > > > them > > > > > because they will be more worried about fighting in court than in > > > > > developing > > > > > their products, and competitors might use this valuable time to > > produce > > > a > > > > > viable competitive product (i.e. Linux with a version of Samba that > is > > > > > fully > > > > > compatible with W2Kserver, including AD). The point is that nobody > > > really > > > > > knows what the future will bring, so it is difficult to make > > judgements > > > > > based on what is going to happen in the future. We only know what > is > > > > > happening now, and right now, CCIE-level jobs still pay better than > > > > > MCSE-level jobs, although admittedly the gap is not as wide as > before. > > > > > But > > > > > the fact that the gap exists at all is prima-facie evidence that the > > low > > > > > supply of CCIE's is compensating for the lower demand for them. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ""Donald B Johnson jr"" wrote in message > > > > > [EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]... > > > > > > Yeah an MCSE on every corner and 1000 Windows boxes in the > building > > > > > behind. > > > > > > I was talking to some buddies in the last big market I worked in > (I > > > live > > > > > in > > > > > > a poh-dunk town now) and people with current Microsoft skills are > > very > > > > > much > > > > > > in demand. > > > > > > The infrastructure guys are hurting, remember when the market went > > > down > > > > > it > > > > > > was the infrastructure, Internet, and Provider companies that > > > > > nose-dived, > > > > > > the mom-an-pops with 200-500Workstations, 10 servers, a couple > > > switches, > > > > > an > > > > > > access router and a real non-internet related business are still > > going > > > > > > strong. They need user connectivity, (not MPLS, OC-12 or the like) > > > they > > > > > need > > > > > > database access, email, and system management product specialists. > I > > > > > think > > > > > > we all got caught in the Microsoft is OK but the really cool stuff > > is > > > > > Cisco, > > > > > > but then we found out that buying pickles and everything else on > the > > > net > > > > > > wasn't flying. Yo I heard Novell is doing some really cool stuff. > > > > > Reminds > > > > > me > > > > > > of a movie where the handsome Earl Flynn was made to walk the > plank > > by > > > > > the > > > > > > ugly green-toothed pirates. > > > > > > MCSE + I - till they rip the 4.0 out of my hand. > > > > > > CNE 4.11 - already stripped > > > > > > CCN/DP - current > > > > > > CCIE 6/8/02 - first attempt > > > > > > Don > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > > > > From: ; > > > > > > To: ; ; > > > > > > Sent: Monday, October 01, 2001 8:45 PM > > > > > > Subject: Fwd: Is the CCIE really worth it??? [7:3485] > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On a whim I took the CCIE written this past Saturday. Didn't > pass > > > but > > > > > I > > > > > > do > > > > > > > believe the exam is far to easy. YES, to easy!! I came up a > > couple > > > > > > answers > > > > > > > short but really put no effort into preparing for the exam!! > > > > > > > When I lost my job last year due to downsizing I weighed my > > options; > > > > > MCSE > > > > > > or > > > > > > > CCIE...finished CCNP on April 30th so I guess that tells you my > > > > > choice... > > > > > > > HOWEVER, after getting the CCNP I began doing some job hunting, > > > EVERY > > > > > > > potential employer wanted MCSE/MCP and didn't care one way or > the > > > > > other > > > > > > > about > > > > > > > Cisco certs. I'm 48 yrs. old and really didn't care much about > the > > > > > MCSE > > > > > > > because of the perceptions you stated (an MCSE on every corner), > > > > > however > > > > > I > > > > > > > read several Microsoft books this summer (NT, W2K Pro, Exchange > > 5.5 > > > & > > > > > > 2000) > > > > > > > but haven't attempted any exams. > > > > > > > Anyway back to CCIE, aside from the CCNP studies, which I > finished > > > in > > > > > the > > > > > > > spring, I read mostly from the Cisco CD (Internetworking > > Technology > > > > > > > Overview, > > > > > > > Case Studies, Design etc) and Lou's Token Ring paper (Thank You > > > Dennis > > > > > for > > > > > > > the TR quizzes) but DID NOT read any of the popular books i.e. > > > Halibi, > > > > > > > Caslow, Doyle endorsed here. I didn't read them for a reason > and > > > that > > > > > was > > > > > > > to > > > > > > > see if I could pass WITHOUT their input and if I hadn't > scr*&^ewed > > > up > > > > > a > > > > > > > couple security questions I would have passed AND THEN I would > > > really > > > > > have > > > > > > > been PISSED....having a qualification to THE LAB and basically > > only > > > > > > > theoretical knowledge base. I chose the CCIE route BECAUSE it > was > > > > > > supposed > > > > > > > to be the crown jewel of networking!!! > > > > > > > > > > > > > > my .02 worth > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Rick > > > > > > > > > > > > > > In a message dated 10/1/01 12:50:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time, > > > > > > > [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I agree with what you are saying, however there is a > difference > > > > > between > > > > > > > > having to work hard for something, and having it so that there > > are > > > > > only > > > > > > > 6000 > > > > > > > > of them in the world... > > > > > > > > The MCSE has lost respect within the IT industry, however if > you > > > > > want > > > > > a > > > > > > > > serious admin job, it is the most sought after certification. > > The > > > > > CCIE > > > > > > > will > > > > > > > > always be a well respected certification. The fact that so > few > > > > > people > > > > > > have > > > > > > > > it is in some ways harmful because human resources departments > > and > > > > > > managers > > > > > > > > outside the tech industry haven't always heard of it. I have > > seen > > > > > > people > > > > > > > > get interviews for high level network engineering positions > that > > > > > were > > > > > > CCNAs > > > > > > > > before CCIEs got the interview. This is because HR has heard > of > > > the > > > > > > CCNA > > > > > > > > and doesn't know what a CCIE is... > > > > > > > > I'm not saying they should water down the test, nor do I > believe > > > > > they > > > > > > are > > > > > > > > doing so. However, I do believe that more is better to a > > certain > > > > > > degree. > > > > > > > > 6000 to 7000 CCIEs in the world is silly. There can very > easily > > > be > > > > > 10 > > > > > > > times > > > > > > > > that and the demand for certified, well trained engineers will > > > still > > > > > be > > > > > > > > there ;-) Just my opinion. > > > > > > > > Regards, > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > > > > > > From: Logan, Harold [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] > > > > > > > > Sent: Monday, October 01, 2001 12:27 PM > > > > > > > > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > > > > > Subject: RE: Is the CCIE really worth it??? [3:3485] > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I disagree. I'm working towards the CCIE, and I want it to be > > > hard. > > > > > I > > > > > > > > want to have to work for it. The last CCNP exam I took was the > > > > > > > > Support/Troubleshooting exam, and I wanted my money back. The > > > couple > > > > > of > > > > > > > > hours I put into studying for it were nothing but wasted time. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > In any line of work, supply and demand rule the market. The > more > > > > > IE's > > > > > > > > there are out there, the less they'll be making. Not only > that, > > > but > > > > > we > > > > > > > > lowly CCNP's and CCDP's can probably expect even less. You > point > > > out > > > > > > > > that there are way more doctors, lawyers, etc... well, there's > > > more > > > > > of > > > > > a > > > > > > > > demand for doctors and lawyers. It's a simple comparison: ask > > > > > yourself > > > > > > > > how many people in a given population get sick or decide to > sue > > > > > someone, > > > > > > > > and compare that to the number of people who need a network > > > > > designed. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What's more, the easier any cert exam is to obtain, the worse > > its > > > > > > > > reputation becomes; just ask Microsoft. It'll be years before > > the > > > > > MCSE > > > > > > > > is a respected certification again... why? Because it was too > > easy > > > > > to > > > > > > > > get. Everyone's got a story about an MCSE who talked big but > > > > > couldn't > > > > > > > > edit an LMHosts file, or couldn't set up a trust relationship, > > or > > > > > > > > couldn't install a NIC. If the IE truly does get easier, how > > long > > > > > will > > > > > > > > it be before everyone has a similar story about a CCIE?I for > one > > > > > hope > > > > > > > > Cisco keeps the lab challenging... I want the IE, but I want > to > > > work > > > > > for > > > > > > > > it. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Hal Logan > > > > > > > > Network Specialist / Adjunct Faculty > > > > > > > > Computing and Engineering Technology > > > > > > > > Manatee Community College > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > > > > > > > From: Marshal Schoener [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] > > > > > > > > > Sent: Sunday, September 30, 2001 3:30 PM > > > > > > > > > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > > > > > > Subject: RE: Is the CCIE really worth it??? [3:3485] > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What is funny is that people are concerned with the > > > > > > > > > possibility of 5 digit > > > > > > > > > amounts of CCIEs at all. > > > > > > > > > Considering there are way more doctors, lawyers, salesman, > > > > > > > > > brokers, etc etc > > > > > > > > > etc etc etc in just about every small city than there are > > > > > > > > > CCIEs world wide, > > > > > > > > > it doesn't seem something very logical to worry about. > > > > > > > > > In fact, to a certain degree it is better off to have more > > > > > > > > > than there are > > > > > > > > > now for sales-marketing reasons... > > > > > > > > > Another thing is that just because the format changes, > > > > > > > > > doesn't mean the test > > > > > > > > > is going to become easier. It may in fact become harder... > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > For those of you that are really worried about this (which I > > > > > > > > > honestly find > > > > > > > > > hard to imagine) why don't you look into the > specializations. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Regards, Message Posted at: http://www.groupstudy.com/form/read.php?f=7&i=21790&t=3485 -------------------------------------------------- FAQ, list archives, and subscription info: http://www.groupstudy.com/list/cisco.html Report misconduct and Nondisclosure violations to [EMAIL PROTECTED]
