kang ocoy, biasanya berapa lama sih waktu yg diperlukan utk melakukan
proper valuation or fundamental analysis sperti yang dilakukan kang
ocoy?
1 day? 1 week? trus dikerjain sendiri ato rame rame (team work)?
soalnya koq saya ngeliatnya kalo untuk individual investor
(retailer), kerjaan tersebut lumayan berat yah? ato ini hanya
perkiraan saya saja yang salah?
ato it's a matter of habit (bisa karena biasa)?
kalo it takes weeks to analyze, resikonya bisa ketinggalan kereta yah?
btw, thanks buat posting awal taon yg enlightening ini...
best,
/satria
On Jan 3, 2008, at 11:25 AM, kang_ocoy_maen_saham wrote:
huai to all bro & sis.. met taon baru dulu ah.. kangen jg euy.. akhir
taun kmaren was really hectic, massive portfolio rebalance & dizzy
end-year job.. makanya ambil liburannya duluan en balik k jakartanya
malah entaran...
tp skrg dah balik lg ke bursa tercinta... a tough year this year yah
kayanya...
beuhh 900 & 400 million dollar... bagi dikit aja tuhh bisa ga kerja
lagi en tinggal foya2 keliling dunia ajahh... hehe.. ckkckk bandar OB
kuat2 benerr yehh...
gimana prospek tahun ini guys??..
as usual im idiot if its bout timing or sentiment or bandarmology,
hence i rely on u guys to comprehend me of such stuffs...
but from my point of view, for better or worse this year remains
opportunity for us all... nowadays its a range-bound market rather
than bull or bear... looking how the season starts, this year "may" be
a bargain hunting season yahh...
saya selalu melihat harga dan market lebih condong ke pandangan
"valuasi" drpd "harga"...
what make market's market is kinda 2 thing...
1. PE Rating Level (Is it Contracting or Expanding)
2. Revenue / Income Growth
this is how it works ;
what justified a market level is the 2 things above
what do the level 2400 means to u?? or even 3000?? or might be 2000??
whether the answer is cheap or fair or expensive is subject of timing
(1st point) and fundamental (2nd point)
PE Rating is moving as the way economy & industry is going, Sometimes
on 1-2 to 5 consecutive year its EXPANDING (tahun 1 di rating 12 trus
14 trus naek hingga 18) or sometimes it starts contracting on 1-2 year
(settling down) or even shrinking by consecutive 3-5 year
(depression)...
on economy growing time the PE Rating is expected to be expanding (if
the economy and bussiness is good and next 2-3 years everything is
remain safe and sound, then likely if the PE rating of today is 14 or
so we could expect next year that it would grow to 15 or 16 -
everything remain unchanged/ceteris paribus) that happen to our market
2004 to half 2007, our PE rating keep expanding..
on economy slowing down phase (biasanya sehabis puncak pertumbuhan)
either its settle at current level or it shrinking down to offset the
late "too rapid" expansion of the usual peak time period... the
"overvalued" is settling down to be "fairly-valued", sometime if the
economy is depressing it goes furtherly down to "undervalued" mode...
nah, the "E" of PE Rating is subject to Fundamental or Internal
Strength of the bussiness & economy... the Justifying PE Rating is
often based on "E" Growth level... if the overall market "E" is
growing 25% u would expect the rating is growing at about that amount
if the growth is likely to last.
jadi contohnya begini; MISALNYA BURSA X :
mARKET BERADA DI LEVEL 2000 DI tahun 2004 itu PE Ratingnya 12
nah economy is good dan taun depannya indeks 2500, people would say
its insane (level harga segitu) but dengan kenaikan 25% YOY ternyata
PE ratingnya hanya naik dr 12 ke 14.. nah it would be just normal
considering the high growth of the "E".. if the growth rate of "E" is
lasting and economy is fine we would expect the index level to mount
to even higher "PE" rating. it means the PE Rating of the economy is
on the expansion mode (keep on going up), biasanya ini kejadian
berturut2 3-5 tahun selama ekonomi okay2 sajah (thats why china was
valued at those rating lately) tp every good thing must come to an end
, nah kadang ketika waktunya kontraksi (natural phase on economic
cycle), it goes down dan kadang diperparah turunnya dengan turunnya
"E" dr si overall market tadi....
nah kadang PE Rating ini juga sifatnya relatif alias liat2an sama
index tetangga juga... rating yg edan sometime dijustifikasi krn si
tetangga "lebih edan" lagi.. a rather silly thinking sih sebenernya...
so, now our index is 2700 level.. is it on the way to keep expanding
or start contracting?? is it cheap or expensive by "fundamental"
basis??.. wah itu mah selera personal aja yah..
hehe...
but nevertheless.., we all know that economy goes in cycle, never were
more than a decade economy is declining... after the darkness the
light will catching up..
so here goes my idea, if its the darkness that gonna come.. dont waste
it, pick the one that gonna lite up even on the darkest time...
gimana milihnya??
haha, being a value-investing wannabe player.. mungkin ini waktu yg
sudah saya tunggu2 untuk menswitch sejenak mode valuasi growth ke mode
value-investing ortodoks.. hehe...
pertama mungkin set-up a bigger margin of safety of entry point (yg
biasanya 20% jd 30/40%) the margin of safety protect us from bad
economy time...
pick a company with stellar balance sheet and high free cash flow in
hand (they make up for bad time sales, dan bahkan kalo punya banyak di
cash... saat harga di pasar jelek company bisa dengan asyik en
enjoynya nge-buyback saham yg dihargai murah, hence nambah pendapatan
equity nantinya.. dan cash yg banyak di tangan menjamin pembayaran
dividen even in the bad time...)
seek a good quality of management lahh... yang sering bokiss2 mah
tinggalin aje.. asem, takutnya entar giliran masa sulit baru ketahuan
deh belang2nya... trus cari perusahaan yg long-term oriented..
hehehe.. apakah freecashflow/EPS tahunan kecil itu jelek??.. belon
tentu, cari company yg ga pelit2 ama capex.. yg ga takut2 nyatetin EPS
kecil tapi proyeknya banyak en capexnya diabisin semua... nah ini bisa
jadi "bibit" yg bagus long term wisely...
yahh.. the "hunting" method above only applied if indeed we were on
the brink of "contraction" time... kalo emang ga jadi kontraksi mah..
yah mungkin cuman settling down the rating + "E"nya itu aja deh..
makanya stance yg bijak mungkin tunggu laporan keuangan q1 08 ato
bahkan malah sekalian H1 biar yakinn mah.. kalo q1/h1 masih oke dan
"E"nya tetep tumbuh tp indeks masih maen stagnan di segini2 aja...
hehehe.. "happy-bargain hunting deh yahh"... (ato indeks turun dr sini
dan "e"nya jg melambat.. yah kalo gitu "margin of safety" mode is on
then...)
so guys...
will it contracting or not???
enlighten me guys....
