tergantung kualitas laporannya pak... kalo modelling processnya mingkin 1 hari dikerjain sendiri jg bisa...
biasanya yg lama / ribet sih bikin proyeksi financial performancenya pak... biasanya yg dibutuhin buat input model itu mau ga mau mesti buat projection income statement, projection balance sheet sama projection free cashflow nya... standarnya analisa laporan keuangan / valuasi sih biasanya cuman ngelanjutin laporan keuangan versi audit tahun ini dan terus bikin proyeksi laporan keuangan ke depan sesuai asumsi2 perkembangan dan tren perusahaan ke depan.. nah cuman analis yg lebih ahli / nguasain proses auditing biasanya nguji lagi "quality of report" dr laporan audit tersebut.. saya sih biasanya cuman ngelanjutin dr laporan keuangan audit aja.. tp ada jg temen analis yg punya background akunting jg yg kadang2 suka saya minta bantuannya... kalo mo cepet en gampang sebenernya tinggal pake angka proyeksi konsensus analis2... trus dibuat CAGRnya tahun2 ke depan, ato sekalian ambil report dr analis2 yg kita tau punya integritas (analis yg biasanya presisi dan jujur) trus kita pake angka2 proyeksinya.. tinggal kita masukkin pake model yg kita pengen pake, ato malah modelnya sama ama yg di konsensus/analis cuman discount factor, market premium, sama terminal growth ratenya aja yg kita rubah sesuai preferensi sendiri.. kalo cuman ganti model mungkin setengah hari jg beres, apalagi kalo cuman ganti variabel input modelnya... paling sejam-dua jam jg beres... proses plg ribet (tp plg krusial) ya di proyeksi laporan keuangan aja... saya ga mungkin bilang ini pekerjaan gampang, saya jg masih belajar.. but i think its worth to do.. it makes a real different ketika kita membuat valuasi sendiri ketika menentukan keputusan investasi... lagian buat saya yg ga bisa nebak market timing, this investing style methodis suits me more, its like batting for a perfect ball without called "strike", simply wait for the perfect ball.. dan perfect ball is defined by "good valuation" itu tadi... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Satria P. Winata Jap" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > kang ocoy, biasanya berapa lama sih waktu yg diperlukan utk melakukan > proper valuation or fundamental analysis sperti yang dilakukan kang > ocoy? > 1 day? 1 week? trus dikerjain sendiri ato rame rame (team work)? > soalnya koq saya ngeliatnya kalo untuk individual investor > (retailer), kerjaan tersebut lumayan berat yah? ato ini hanya > perkiraan saya saja yang salah? > ato it's a matter of habit (bisa karena biasa)? > kalo it takes weeks to analyze, resikonya bisa ketinggalan kereta yah? > btw, thanks buat posting awal taon yg enlightening ini... > > best, > > /satria > > On Jan 3, 2008, at 11:25 AM, kang_ocoy_maen_saham wrote: > > > huai to all bro & sis.. met taon baru dulu ah.. kangen jg euy.. akhir > > taun kmaren was really hectic, massive portfolio rebalance & dizzy > > end-year job.. makanya ambil liburannya duluan en balik k jakartanya > > malah entaran... > > > > tp skrg dah balik lg ke bursa tercinta... a tough year this year yah > > kayanya... > > > > beuhh 900 & 400 million dollar... bagi dikit aja tuhh bisa ga kerja > > lagi en tinggal foya2 keliling dunia ajahh... hehe.. ckkckk bandar OB > > kuat2 benerr yehh... > > > > gimana prospek tahun ini guys??.. > > > > as usual im idiot if its bout timing or sentiment or bandarmology, > > hence i rely on u guys to comprehend me of such stuffs... > > > > but from my point of view, for better or worse this year remains > > opportunity for us all... nowadays its a range-bound market rather > > than bull or bear... looking how the season starts, this year "may" be > > a bargain hunting season yahh... > > > > saya selalu melihat harga dan market lebih condong ke pandangan > > "valuasi" drpd "harga"... > > > > what make market's market is kinda 2 thing... > > > > 1. PE Rating Level (Is it Contracting or Expanding) > > 2. Revenue / Income Growth > > > > this is how it works ; > > > > what justified a market level is the 2 things above > > > > what do the level 2400 means to u?? or even 3000?? or might be 2000?? > > > > whether the answer is cheap or fair or expensive is subject of timing > > (1st point) and fundamental (2nd point) > > > > PE Rating is moving as the way economy & industry is going, Sometimes > > on 1-2 to 5 consecutive year its EXPANDING (tahun 1 di rating 12 trus > > 14 trus naek hingga 18) or sometimes it starts contracting on 1-2 year > > (settling down) or even shrinking by consecutive 3-5 year > > (depression)... > > > > on economy growing time the PE Rating is expected to be expanding (if > > the economy and bussiness is good and next 2-3 years everything is > > remain safe and sound, then likely if the PE rating of today is 14 or > > so we could expect next year that it would grow to 15 or 16 - > > everything remain unchanged/ceteris paribus) that happen to our market > > 2004 to half 2007, our PE rating keep expanding.. > > > > on economy slowing down phase (biasanya sehabis puncak pertumbuhan) > > either its settle at current level or it shrinking down to offset the > > late "too rapid" expansion of the usual peak time period... the > > "overvalued" is settling down to be "fairly-valued", sometime if the > > economy is depressing it goes furtherly down to "undervalued" mode... > > > > nah, the "E" of PE Rating is subject to Fundamental or Internal > > Strength of the bussiness & economy... the Justifying PE Rating is > > often based on "E" Growth level... if the overall market "E" is > > growing 25% u would expect the rating is growing at about that amount > > if the growth is likely to last. > > > > jadi contohnya begini; MISALNYA BURSA X : > > > > mARKET BERADA DI LEVEL 2000 DI tahun 2004 itu PE Ratingnya 12 > > nah economy is good dan taun depannya indeks 2500, people would say > > its insane (level harga segitu) but dengan kenaikan 25% YOY ternyata > > PE ratingnya hanya naik dr 12 ke 14.. nah it would be just normal > > considering the high growth of the "E".. if the growth rate of "E" is > > lasting and economy is fine we would expect the index level to mount > > to even higher "PE" rating. it means the PE Rating of the economy is > > on the expansion mode (keep on going up), biasanya ini kejadian > > berturut2 3-5 tahun selama ekonomi okay2 sajah (thats why china was > > valued at those rating lately) tp every good thing must come to an end > > , nah kadang ketika waktunya kontraksi (natural phase on economic > > cycle), it goes down dan kadang diperparah turunnya dengan turunnya > > "E" dr si overall market tadi.... > > > > nah kadang PE Rating ini juga sifatnya relatif alias liat2an sama > > index tetangga juga... rating yg edan sometime dijustifikasi krn si > > tetangga "lebih edan" lagi.. a rather silly thinking sih sebenernya... > > > > so, now our index is 2700 level.. is it on the way to keep expanding > > or start contracting?? is it cheap or expensive by "fundamental" > > basis??.. wah itu mah selera personal aja yah.. > > > > hehe... > > > > but nevertheless.., we all know that economy goes in cycle, never were > > more than a decade economy is declining... after the darkness the > > light will catching up.. > > > > so here goes my idea, if its the darkness that gonna come.. dont waste > > it, pick the one that gonna lite up even on the darkest time... > > > > gimana milihnya?? > > > > haha, being a value-investing wannabe player.. mungkin ini waktu yg > > sudah saya tunggu2 untuk menswitch sejenak mode valuasi growth ke mode > > value-investing ortodoks.. hehe... > > > > pertama mungkin set-up a bigger margin of safety of entry point (yg > > biasanya 20% jd 30/40%) the margin of safety protect us from bad > > economy time... > > > > pick a company with stellar balance sheet and high free cash flow in > > hand (they make up for bad time sales, dan bahkan kalo punya banyak di > > cash... saat harga di pasar jelek company bisa dengan asyik en > > enjoynya nge-buyback saham yg dihargai murah, hence nambah pendapatan > > equity nantinya.. dan cash yg banyak di tangan menjamin pembayaran > > dividen even in the bad time...) > > > > seek a good quality of management lahh... yang sering bokiss2 mah > > tinggalin aje.. asem, takutnya entar giliran masa sulit baru ketahuan > > deh belang2nya... trus cari perusahaan yg long-term oriented.. > > hehehe.. apakah freecashflow/EPS tahunan kecil itu jelek??.. belon > > tentu, cari company yg ga pelit2 ama capex.. yg ga takut2 nyatetin EPS > > kecil tapi proyeknya banyak en capexnya diabisin semua... nah ini bisa > > jadi "bibit" yg bagus long term wisely... > > > > yahh.. the "hunting" method above only applied if indeed we were on > > the brink of "contraction" time... kalo emang ga jadi kontraksi mah.. > > yah mungkin cuman settling down the rating + "E"nya itu aja deh.. > > > > makanya stance yg bijak mungkin tunggu laporan keuangan q1 08 ato > > bahkan malah sekalian H1 biar yakinn mah.. kalo q1/h1 masih oke dan > > "E"nya tetep tumbuh tp indeks masih maen stagnan di segini2 aja... > > hehehe.. "happy-bargain hunting deh yahh"... (ato indeks turun dr sini > > dan "e"nya jg melambat.. yah kalo gitu "margin of safety" mode is on > > then...) > > > > so guys... > > > > will it contracting or not??? > > > > enlighten me guys.... > > >
