Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread Bruno Marchal


On 10 Nov 2013, at 22:06, John Mikes wrote:


Bruno and Brent:

Who are you to  T E L L  society what it needs?


I am only trying to tell society what I need, and what I think my  
children, my students, my friends,  and all people I care about can  
need.




(BTW: I agree perfectly with your position).

I had discussions on other lists in aspects of religion and gun- 
control and received similar offensive repercussions. No universal  
machine can tell any other universal machine how to think and what  
to aim at.


I absolutely agree with you.

But all universal machine have the right, for that very reason, to  
criticize and vote against those machines who want to impose their  
mode of thinking.





Voting is a lying hoax, democracy is nonetxistent. A handful people  
of goodwill will not change the malicious crowd.
When I abhor shooting to kill people, it does not prove wrong those  
crazies who like to do it - just marks a difference of opinions.

TELLING society what it needs is fascism, socialism, or religion.


OK. but the idea is not killing is bad. The idea is killing me or  
my children is bad, and so I might vote for someone who will help (or  
promise to help) to minimize the probability of that happening.


Bruno





Be careful with your words: they are mostly meaningless substitutes.

John M.


On Sat, Nov 9, 2013 at 11:50 AM, John Mikes jami...@gmail.com wrote:
On 06 Nov 2013, at 17:25, meekerdb wrote:


On 11/6/2013 12:58 AM, Bruno Marchal wrote:


There is nothing wrong being rich, unless the money is stolen  
money, and that's the case today.


There's nothing morally wrong with being rich, but it creates an  
ethical problem.  Being much wealthier than others bestows a lot of  
power.  If there is no effective government (like parts of Somalia)  
then the rich hire a personal army to protect their property.   
Where there is government, the police protect their property and  
the rich attempt to control the government through propaganda and  
buying influence.  So long as the rich are not so rich as to live  
in a different 'world' than the middle class and they are  
relatively diverse this works OK.  But the system seems to be  
unstable in that the rich can and do use their wealth and power to  
get more wealth and power - and not necessarily productively.  So  
those who inherit wealth tend to gain even more wealth.  Society  
needs to do something to stabilize the system and prevent the  
increasing concentration of wealth.


I completely agree. The problem is that with money, you can produce  
more money in two ways, honestly or dishonestly


Bruno, before I touch the basics - could you explain what you  
would consider to produce M O R E  money HONESTLY?  Same question to  
Brent's text above: that the rich can and do use their wealth and  
power to get more wealth and power - and not necessarily productively.


I don't see a 'productive' way how 'the rich' get more wealth and  
power by using their wealth and power. It is exploitation, political  
scam, bribery, terrorism, etc. - all in the framework of accepted  
morals of the system (either capitalist, or fascist).


I recall some basics (I am no 'Socialist') from Marx:
NOBODY owns Nature so any natural products (mining, farming, or  
other) are valued 'honestly' as recompensation for the efforts  
invested into the natural process for getting money - honestly -  
productively, without exploitation. Does any mine-owner work on his  
product? Does any Farming conglomerated stockholder work honestly on  
the crop? I do not advocate the CEO to sweep the floor: there is  
tasks' - organization in which everyone has a role to perform, but  
are the roles proportionately paid for? Mao tried to switch 'roles'  
temporarily - he failed. Lenin realized that such just distribution  
is impossible in today's society and postulated FIRST the  
development of som COMMUINST MAN who lives up to such 'just  
distribution' of benefits - surely realizing the impossibility of  
such development. All other (Socialist?) countries suffered from  
the same malaise as the (democraticly?) capitalistic ones: the  
leadership and its power usurped wealth, acquired MONEY and POWER on  
the back of the 'not so fortunate' exploited majority.

Alas, I have no solution to remedy the situation.
Re-hire Dr. Guillotine is unrealistic.
JM





On Wed, Nov 6, 2013 at 5:24 PM, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be  
wrote:


On 06 Nov 2013, at 17:25, meekerdb wrote:


On 11/6/2013 12:58 AM, Bruno Marchal wrote:


There is nothing wrong being rich, unless the money is stolen  
money, and that's the case today.


There's nothing morally wrong with being rich, but it creates an  
ethical problem.  Being much wealthier than others bestows a lot of  
power.  If there is no effective government (like parts of Somalia)  
then the rich hire a personal army to protect their property.   
Where there is government, the police protect their property and  
the rich 

Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread Bruno Marchal


On 11 Nov 2013, at 01:27, spudboy...@aol.com wrote:

Ok, but this is a technique for priming the intellectual pump. If it  
produces nothing good, nothing powerful, then this method would be a  
complete failure.


It seems to me that this works very well, as long as the society is  
below some level of corruption, in which case you can be misinfoirmed,  
and by not knowing it and being honest, you spread the lies and this  
leads to problem soon or later. Problems comes from the liars, but  
also from the people who have been lied. It is very often hard to  
delineate them.


Bruno





-Original Message-
From: Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be
To: everything-list everything-list@googlegroups.com
Sent: Sun, Nov 10, 2013 2:49 pm
Subject: Re: Our Demon-Haunted World


On 09 Nov 2013, at 19:09, spudboy...@aol.com wrote:

I am emphasizing having governments print out (Keynes style)  
absolutely, colossal, amounts of cash, as a reward for coming up  
with excellent disease treatments and cures, human solar system  
tours, and clean energy solution, environmental remediation. If the  
banks won't fund researchers, then private equity will, if private  
equity won't then a million contributors-open source-will, provided  
they get a cut of the reward offered by a government prize. I  
wouldn't be shocked if you, Professor, Marchal, might summon up 25  
ECU's in exchange for receiving 3000 ECU's or Golden Yuans, in  
payment, 5 years later.



Only if this reflects some honest contracts.

Honesty is not just moral, it is something which elevates a lot  
the real value of money. It generates trust.


Be honest.
If you don't try to be honest for the calm of your conscience, do it  
for the wealth of your children.


Today big corporations are based on lies. That's the problem.

Bruno



http://iridia.ulb.ac.be/~marchal/



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Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread Bruno Marchal


On 10 Nov 2013, at 08:42, LizR wrote:


On 10 November 2013 18:11, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:
On 11/9/2013 6:13 PM, spudboy...@aol.com wrote:
Let me ask you Jesse do you suggest any substitute that we can turn  
to for transforming world civilization to clean power? The only  
significant thing I can think of, would be hiring Craig Venter to  
produce some methane or hydrogen maker, that can, if necessary  
convert sea water to fuel.


You seem ignorant that converting sea water to fuel takes more  
energy than you can get from burning the fuel (hydrogen).  So you  
still need a clean energy source to do the conversion.


This would be a possible way of creating fuel for easy transport.  
One of the big points about petrol is that it's very transportable.  
The best solution to the world's energy problems imho would be to  
find a method of extracting carbon dioxide from the air and  
converting it plus water into petrol using solar power. Carbon- 
neutral petrol and we don't have to rejig all our existing transport  
systems. If we can extract more carbon than we use we might even  
cool the earth too.


Is that not what the plants are doing, all the time?

Can we do better, I mean today?

Bruno






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http://iridia.ulb.ac.be/~marchal/



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Re: Re: [4DWorldx] Is mass mental or physical ?

2013-11-11 Thread LizR
On 11 November 2013 09:44, John Mikes jami...@gmail.com wrote:

 Liz: it all starts with the proper use of words we use so imroperly.

 Musttrynottofeelshadenfreude...

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Re: Spacetime is (nonphysical, platonic) mind

2013-11-11 Thread LizR
On 11 November 2013 18:18, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

  On 11/10/2013 5:59 PM, LizR wrote:

 On 11 November 2013 13:53, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

  On 11/10/2013 3:54 PM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:


  Sure, but the thing is that *you have to*, and asking such question at
 that stage is very likely... you can't be 10⁵ years old before having been
 1 year old... it's simply nonsense.


  So you're falling back on the all-purpose 'everything' answer; whatever
 you observe is one of everything and that why everything is consistent with
 it - like why I'm not a Chinaman?

  There isn't any falling back here that I can see. It seems quite
 reasonable to say you have to pass through your birthdays in ascending
 order. I can't see why that is problematic / contraversial?


 Sure, but if I live infinitely long I will have almost all my experiences
 older than 75.  So when I note that I'm not that old and that seems
 improbable, it's not an answer to say, Well, less than 75 is an age you
 must be sometime.  Jason at least had an answer, although I don't think
 his answer leads to immortality either.


I didn't say 75 is an age you must be sometime - I said 75 is an age you
must be before you can be 76. You can only reach age N by traversing all
lower ages first. You can't use a self-sampling argument to show that you
shouldn't be your current age if you *have* to pass through that age before
you can experience any greater ages.

This is an answer.

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Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread Bruno Marchal


On 10 Nov 2013, at 05:52, meekerdb wrote:



3. What do you recommend if the US refuses to comply?


?? You mean the U.S. government refuses to act in the best interests  
of it's citizens: Vote them out.


We could have meant that the US government fake to comply. Once a  
government lie, and the press is no more free, you might miss the data  
to vote them out.


In the health politics, many governments refuse to act in the  
interests of its citizens, since a long time, but very few citizens  
realize this, because they are kept uninformed.


Bruno




http://iridia.ulb.ac.be/~marchal/



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Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread LizR
On 11 November 2013 21:07, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote:


 On 10 Nov 2013, at 08:42, LizR wrote:

 On 10 November 2013 18:11, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

  On 11/9/2013 6:13 PM, spudboy...@aol.com wrote:

 Let me ask you Jesse do you suggest any substitute that we can turn to
 for transforming world civilization to clean power? The only significant
 thing I can think of, would be hiring Craig Venter to produce some methane
 or hydrogen maker, that can, if necessary convert sea water to fuel.


 You seem ignorant that converting sea water to fuel takes more energy
 than you can get from burning the fuel (hydrogen).  So you still need a
 clean energy source to do the conversion.

 This would be a possible way of creating fuel for easy transport. One of
 the big points about petrol is that it's very transportable. The best
 solution to the world's energy problems imho would be to find a method of
 extracting carbon dioxide from the air and converting it plus water into
 petrol using solar power. Carbon-neutral petrol and we don't have to rejig
 all our existing transport systems. If we can extract more carbon than we
 use we might even cool the earth too.


 Is that not what the plants are doing, all the time?


Yes, but unfortunately the whole process takes millions of years.


 Can we do better, I mean today?

 Not at carbon sequestration, but to achieve a reduction in CO2 by growing
plants we would have to stop using cars and power plants and so on. The
reason I gave the above suggestion is that if we can do it, it would enable
us to be carbon neutral without giving up our civilisation to do so.

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Re: Spacetime is (nonphysical, platonic) mind

2013-11-11 Thread Bruno Marchal


On 09 Nov 2013, at 20:13, meekerdb wrote:


On 11/9/2013 1:57 AM, Bruno Marchal wrote:
Tegmark thinks he will survive, if the gun works sufficiently well.  
if not he might degrade and eventually ... die. This makes no sense  
to me. It is annoying, but we can degrade a lot, yet we can't die  
(with just comp, or, ITSM, with just the quantum MWI). With comp,  
we can expect jump, and consciousness phase transition, though.


Aside from not finding myself the oldest person on the planet, I see  
a problem with quantum immortality in that quantum mechanics is time- 
reverse invariant.  So I should be 'past immortal' also.


Can you imagine that immortality *is* in the past. And well, that was  
nice, but now you give some chances to mortality, just to compare.





But as Mark Twain said, I do not fear death, in view of the fact  
that I had been dead for billions and billions of years before I was  
born, and had not suffered the slightest inconvenience from it.


If you recognize yourself in some other (human, or not) being(s) that  
is not clear at all.



Bruno

If we are what our brains do it is easy to see why we should live  
from past (low entropy) to future (higher entropy), be born and die.




http://iridia.ulb.ac.be/~marchal/



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To understand consciousness, you have to get personal. Otherwise it's hearsay.

2013-11-11 Thread Roger Clough
Hi Hans,

Your mind has been self-limited due to your materialism.

Consider this: 

Bertrand Russell said (correctly) that there are
two forms of knowledge:

a) knowledge by description (anything in language, impersonal, 
third person singular, public knowledge, hearsay)
This is all that materialism can provide you with.

example: you know that Obama is president.

b) knowledge by acqaintance ( this is first person singular experience, 
which is what consciousness is. This is personal and private. Thus it
is good evidence in court. 

Materialism rejects anything personal b) and so will never understand 
consciousness.

example: you have met Obama.

While Russell correctly saw those two forms, he apparently
never understood, or at some time rejected,  b) and
became a logical atomist, which finally gave up.


  
 
Dr. Roger B Clough NIST (ret.) [1/1/2000]
See my Leibniz site at
http://independent.academia.edu/RogerClough

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Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread Alberto G. Corona
No.

In this case I´m not insulting,  just gently defending myself, since I´m a
Warmism infidel, I used to be a dangerous smoker , so may I have to pay for
it with my life if the next wave of human rights advocates take over.

And, I have to confess, I fart from time to time and no doubt this will be
severely punished, as a noisy and smelly violation of Human Rights, by the
state and the International institutions in a few years.


2013/11/11 Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com

 When somebody doesn’t agree with you, do you then start insulting them?



 *From:* everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:
 everything-list@googlegroups.com] *On Behalf Of *Alberto G. Corona
 *Sent:* Sunday, November 10, 2013 6:36 PM
 *To:* everything-list

 *Subject:* Re: Our Demon-Haunted World



 I think that, since the forces of progress and human dignity lost Siberia
 as the location for stablishing psychiatrics to reconduct deviated enemies
 of the People, The North and South poles can well be used to make global
 warming negationist to reconsider is position against Humanity and human
 rights.



 Don´t you think so, comrade Meekerdb?



 2013/11/10 meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net

 On 11/9/2013 3:09 PM, Telmo Menezes wrote:

 On Sat, Nov 9, 2013 at 9:55 PM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

 On 11/9/2013 9:37 AM, spudboy...@aol.com wrote:

 Brent, my analogy, however badly its thought-up, is to force the idealists
 to produce. My idea was to force the idealist back to painful reality and
 hard choices, rather then mentally living in La La land. Saying  Oh
 they're
 working on solar and soon..

 How about forcing the libertarians to painful reality.  They're going
 through the six stages of denial:

 1. There is no global warming.
 2. The science is uncertain.
 3. There's global warming but it's just a natural cycle.
 4. Global warming will really be good for us.
 5. It's too costly to stop global warming.
 6. Nothing can be done.

 Most of them I know are stuck around 3 or 4 now.  They're hoping to delay
 any action so they can get to 6.  Why?  Because they'd rather face
 extinction than admit there are some things that you need government to do.

 Brent,

 Out of curiosity: why do you care so much about what libertarians
 think? They are a small minority. I believe most are very much aware
 that big government is here to stay. Most people in the western world
 vote for some variation of a conservative or liberal party, both
 statist.

 Surely if you are right, and global warming is an existential threat,
 and government intervention is the only way to solve it, what
 libertarians think should be quite low in your list of concerns no?


 Except that they have a disproportionate voice in the public debate
 because their message is amplified by monied interests who depend on fossil
 fuel (e.g. the Koch brothers).  There was only a small number of lawyers,
 publicists, and scientists who claimed that:

 1. Smoking has nothing to do with lung cancer.
 2. There may be a relation but the science is uncertain.
 3. Lung cancer just occurs naturally.
 4. There are new, healthier cigarettes.
 5. It will hurt the economy to limit cigarettes.
 6. People should be free to smoke if they want to.

 and they delayed any government action against smoking for forty years.
  In fact some of them are *exactly* the same people hired to spread doubt
 about global warming.  To undertake big government action in a democracy
 you need a solid majority in the populace.  As long as libertarians and oil
 companies can sow doubt that's enough to prevent any action.



 Brent

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Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread Telmo Menezes
On Mon, Nov 11, 2013 at 12:04 AM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:
 On 11/10/2013 2:19 PM, Telmo Menezes wrote:

 On Sun, Nov 10, 2013 at 10:05 PM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

 On 11/10/2013 12:29 PM, Telmo Menezes wrote:

 As I said before, I am agnostic on this issue for the following reasons:

 - I am not educated in climate science and I am sufficiently educated
 in science to understand that it would take years of full-time effort
 to get to a point where I could judge the merit of climate science
 research findings by myself -- even there I would probably have to
 become an insider, because I understand that a lot of key data is
 never made publicly available;
 - I am sufficiently knowledgable of complex systems to be skeptical of
 the predictive power of any complex systems model at our current level
 of sophistication;
 - The issue became so heavily politicised that it is basically not
 reasonable to trust news reporting on either side of it.

 I am aware of the 5th IPCC report and I am also aware of claims by
 reputable climate scientists that the models' predictions appear to be
 deviating increasingly from the observables:


 http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/30/implications-for-climate-models-of-their-disagreement-with-observations/


 Are you aware that Judith Curry was on the Berkley Earth team to resolve
 the
 question of whether the earth is actually warming.  She and Richard
 Muller
 had been critical of the analyses performed by NOAA, Hadley, CRU, and
 GISS.
 When the new analysis, which met all the past criticisms, confirmed all
 the
 previous conclusions, she quit the team and shifted her criticism from
 it's
 not happening to it's not predictable.  Notice that means it could be
 a
 lot worse than predicted too - but the Deniers and FUDers never mention
 that.

 I've been around long enough to know that she could possibly describe
 the same sequence of events in a way that makes her look good and her
 opponents bad. I am more interested in the graphs.


 Then look at these:

 http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/02/2012-updates-to-model-observation-comparions/

Ok so what's wrong with Judith's graphs?



 I am not invested in disproving global warming. I like to think I am
 scientifically-minded, so I accept reality whatever it is. I hope it
 is wrong. I suspect some people want it to be true.


 Yes, you're the perfect example of the success of the Deniers FUD
 campaign.

 Maybe, but I would be more confident that I was witnessing a serious
 scientific debate if people were not using terms like Deniers and
 FUD campaign.


 But that's exactly the point.  You are NOT witnessing a serious scientific
 debate.  There's ZERO serious science on the side of Deniers.

This is an extraordinary claim. Zero serious science?

 They are like
 anti-evolutionist.

You resort too much to ad hominem and arguments from authority. If
we're having a long conversation about this then use it to teach me
something instead. Explain me the models and explain why the deniers
are wrong.

 All they do is look for some small anomaly (like a
 prediction that was off) and say, What about THAT?.  You are witnessing a
 disinformation campaign - and the cui bono is pretty obvious.



 98% of all climate scientists agree that AGW is happening and it will
 have
 bad consequences.

 This is a badly disguised argument from authority. It's precisely
 phrases like 98% of all climate scientists... that triggered my BS
 alarms in this issue.


 Since you said you didn't feel up to understanding the science what are you
 going to rely on?

I didn't say I didn't feel like it or that I was unwilling to do it. I
said I believed it would not be possible, with a reasonable amount of
effort, to have an informed opinion. Are you a climatologist? If not,
you seem to believe otherwise beacuse you arrived at a strong
conclusion. In which case, feel free to tell me about the models and
why it's easier to be certain than I think.

 Talking heads on Faux News or the IPCC?

This is a false dichotomy, of course. I sent you a link from the blog
of an accredited climate scientist. Her credentials seem legit, from
what I can gather from the Internet. Your reply to that was to attack
her character, not her ideas or data. This worries me.
I assume Faux News means Fox News? I'm not an american so I must have
watched Fox News two or three times in my life, out of morbid
curiosity when travelling. Plus a few funny videos on youtube that
people share.

Telmo.



   But you're aware of skeptical scientists, like Judith
 Curry (who are given TV time on Faux News), so it's a toss-up.  It's been
 heavily politicized - by money from the fossil fuel companies - so no
 news
 can be trusted.  You're not expert enough to read the scientific
 literature
 - so you're agnostic.

 This may be the case.

 You *suspect* some people want it to be true???

 Well I'm almost sure.

 In other words you suspect
 some academics of wanting to trash 

Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread LizR
The effects of global warming are visible in quite a few places around the
world now. Glaciers have retreated worldwide, and the Arctic sea ice is
getting thinner and not extending so far. Measurements indicate average
temperatures have risen, and there are of course increased levels of
atmospheric CO2. Since I am not an expert I have to trust those who are,
such as the World Meteorological Organization. Their latest report says the
planet experienced unprecedented high-impact climate extremes in the ten
years from 2001 to 2010, the warmest decade since the start of modern
measurements in 1850.

Those ten years also continued an extended period of accelerating global
warming, with more national temperature records reported broken than in any
previous decade. Sea levels rose about twice as fast as the trend in the
last century.

A WMO report, The Global Climate 2001-2010, A Decade of Climate
Extremeshttp://library.wmo.int/opac/index.php?lvl=notice_displayid=15110,
analyses global and regional temperatures and precipitation, and extreme
weather such as the heat waves in Europe and Russia, Hurricane Katrina in
the US, tropical cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, droughts in the Amazon basin,
Australia and East Africa, and floods in Pakistan.

Obviously they could all be politically motivated or in the pay of
mysterious socialist organisations, and it's always possible that their
modelling is wildly inaccurate, but unless someone is actually making up
the data and the measurements then *something* is going on which is causing
the world to warm. It appears to be an observational fact, and it's one
which has potentially dire consequences for the human race, since it can
wipe out swathes of the easy argicultural life we've enjoyed since the
start of the last interglacial.

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Re: Spacetime is (nonphysical, platonic) mind

2013-11-11 Thread Quentin Anciaux
2013/11/11 meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net

  On 11/10/2013 5:59 PM, LizR wrote:

 On 11 November 2013 13:53, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

  On 11/10/2013 3:54 PM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:


  Sure, but the thing is that *you have to*, and asking such question at
 that stage is very likely... you can't be 10⁵ years old before having been
 1 year old... it's simply nonsense.


  So you're falling back on the all-purpose 'everything' answer; whatever
 you observe is one of everything and that why everything is consistent with
 it - like why I'm not a Chinaman?

  There isn't any falling back here that I can see. It seems quite
 reasonable to say you have to pass through your birthdays in ascending
 order. I can't see why that is problematic / contraversial?


 Sure, but if I live infinitely long I will have almost all my experiences
 older than 75.  So when I note that I'm not that old and that seems
 improbable,


The thing is as I said is that you have to be *first* 75 before being
older... you're talking like every moment of your life was chosen
randomly... they aren't (at least for me) before today, it was yesterday,
not a random moment, and tomorrow will be tomorrow not a random moment in
my life. Using your argument I should never have been a child.

Quentin


 it's not an answer to say, Well, less than 75 is an age you must be
 sometime.  Jason at least had an answer, although I don't think his answer
 leads to immortality either.

 Brent

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All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.

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Re: Spacetime is (nonphysical, platonic) mind

2013-11-11 Thread LizR
Oops I meant OR a googol years, of course.

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Re: Spacetime is (nonphysical, platonic) mind

2013-11-11 Thread LizR
On 11 November 2013 22:47, Quentin Anciaux allco...@gmail.com wrote:

 2013/11/11 meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net

  On 11/10/2013 5:59 PM, LizR wrote:

 On 11 November 2013 13:53, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

  On 11/10/2013 3:54 PM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:


  Sure, but the thing is that *you have to*, and asking such question at
 that stage is very likely... you can't be 10⁵ years old before having been
 1 year old... it's simply nonsense.


  So you're falling back on the all-purpose 'everything' answer; whatever
 you observe is one of everything and that why everything is consistent with
 it - like why I'm not a Chinaman?

  There isn't any falling back here that I can see. It seems quite
 reasonable to say you have to pass through your birthdays in ascending
 order. I can't see why that is problematic / contraversial?


 Sure, but if I live infinitely long I will have almost all my experiences
 older than 75.  So when I note that I'm not that old and that seems
 improbable,


 The thing is as I said is that you have to be *first* 75 before being
 older... you're talking like every moment of your life was chosen
 randomly... they aren't (at least for me) before today, it was yesterday,
 not a random moment, and tomorrow will be tomorrow not a random moment in
 my life. Using your argument I should never have been a child.


I must admit I'm baffled that the normally sensible Mr Meeker finds it odd
that one has to live through one's life consecutively, with or without
quantum immortality. As stated, you can't use a Bayesian selection argument
when the points you're chosen are constrained to occur sequentially,
whether you're going to live to be 100, 1000, a million of a googol years,
you still have to start at 1 and work your way up.

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Re: Spacetime is (nonphysical, platonic) mind

2013-11-11 Thread Bruno Marchal


On 10 Nov 2013, at 19:31, meekerdb wrote:


On 11/9/2013 11:37 PM, LizR wrote:

On 10 November 2013 08:13, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:
On 11/9/2013 1:57 AM, Bruno Marchal wrote:
Tegmark thinks he will survive, if the gun works sufficiently  
well. if not he might degrade and eventually ... die. This makes  
no sense to me. It is annoying, but we can degrade a lot, yet we  
can't die (with just comp, or, ITSM, with just the quantum MWI).  
With comp, we can expect jump, and consciousness phase  
transition, though.


Aside from not finding myself the oldest person on the planet, I  
see a problem with quantum immortality in that quantum mechanics is  
time-reverse invariant.  So I should be 'past immortal' also.  But  
as Mark Twain said, I do not fear death, in view of the fact that  
I had been dead for billions and billions of years before I was  
born, and had not suffered the slightest inconvenience from it.   
If we are what our brains do it is easy to see why we should live  
from past (low entropy) to future (higher entropy), be born and die.


Leaving aside time reversibility (which I am myself rather hot on)  
for a moment, if you're quantum immortal you can only expect to  
eventually find yourself the oldest person. Give it time. You have  
to go through the bit beforehand beforehand...


True, but finding yourself in the first 1/N of your life when N=inf  
is highly unlikely.


Accepting some absolute self-sampling assumption (ASSA), which should  
not be assumed. This does not mean that you are not doing a point, but  
that you should recast it in the Relative SSA (RSSA).


Bruno


http://iridia.ulb.ac.be/~marchal/



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RE: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread Chris de Morsella
Watch out the black helicopters are coming for you

 

From: everything-list@googlegroups.com
[mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Alberto G. Corona 
Sent: Monday, November 11, 2013 1:21 AM
To: everything-list
Subject: Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

 

No. 

 

In this case I´m not insulting,  just gently defending myself, since I´m a
Warmism infidel, I used to be a dangerous smoker , so may I have to pay for
it with my life if the next wave of human rights advocates take over. 

 

And, I have to confess, I fart from time to time and no doubt this will be
severely punished, as a noisy and smelly violation of Human Rights, by the
state and the International institutions in a few years.

 

2013/11/11 Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com

When somebody doesn’t agree with you, do you then start insulting them?

 

From: everything-list@googlegroups.com
[mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Alberto G. Corona 
Sent: Sunday, November 10, 2013 6:36 PM
To: everything-list


Subject: Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

 

I think that, since the forces of progress and human dignity lost Siberia as
the location for stablishing psychiatrics to reconduct deviated enemies of
the People, The North and South poles can well be used to make global
warming negationist to reconsider is position against Humanity and human
rights.

 

Don´t you think so, comrade Meekerdb?

 

2013/11/10 meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net

On 11/9/2013 3:09 PM, Telmo Menezes wrote:

On Sat, Nov 9, 2013 at 9:55 PM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

On 11/9/2013 9:37 AM, spudboy...@aol.com wrote:

Brent, my analogy, however badly its thought-up, is to force the idealists
to produce. My idea was to force the idealist back to painful reality and
hard choices, rather then mentally living in La La land. Saying  Oh they're
working on solar and soon..

How about forcing the libertarians to painful reality.  They're going
through the six stages of denial:

1. There is no global warming.
2. The science is uncertain.
3. There's global warming but it's just a natural cycle.
4. Global warming will really be good for us.
5. It's too costly to stop global warming.
6. Nothing can be done.

Most of them I know are stuck around 3 or 4 now.  They're hoping to delay
any action so they can get to 6.  Why?  Because they'd rather face
extinction than admit there are some things that you need government to do.

Brent,

Out of curiosity: why do you care so much about what libertarians
think? They are a small minority. I believe most are very much aware
that big government is here to stay. Most people in the western world
vote for some variation of a conservative or liberal party, both
statist.

Surely if you are right, and global warming is an existential threat,
and government intervention is the only way to solve it, what
libertarians think should be quite low in your list of concerns no?


Except that they have a disproportionate voice in the public debate because
their message is amplified by monied interests who depend on fossil fuel
(e.g. the Koch brothers).  There was only a small number of lawyers,
publicists, and scientists who claimed that:

1. Smoking has nothing to do with lung cancer.
2. There may be a relation but the science is uncertain.
3. Lung cancer just occurs naturally.
4. There are new, healthier cigarettes.
5. It will hurt the economy to limit cigarettes.
6. People should be free to smoke if they want to.

and they delayed any government action against smoking for forty years.  In
fact some of them are *exactly* the same people hired to spread doubt about
global warming.  To undertake big government action in a democracy you need
a solid majority in the populace.  As long as libertarians and oil companies
can sow doubt that's enough to prevent any action.



Brent

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-- 
Alberto. 

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Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread Alberto G. Corona
I will reject them with a pack of snuff and a fan. They will run towards
their politicians crying for their human rights


2013/11/11 Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com

 Watch out the black helicopters are coming for you



 *From:* everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:
 everything-list@googlegroups.com] *On Behalf Of *Alberto G. Corona
 *Sent:* Monday, November 11, 2013 1:21 AM

 *To:* everything-list
 *Subject:* Re: Our Demon-Haunted World



 No.



 In this case I´m not insulting,  just gently defending myself, since I´m a
 Warmism infidel, I used to be a dangerous smoker , so may I have to pay for
 it with my life if the next wave of human rights advocates take over.



 And, I have to confess, I fart from time to time and no doubt this will be
 severely punished, as a noisy and smelly violation of Human Rights, by the
 state and the International institutions in a few years.



 2013/11/11 Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com

 When somebody doesn’t agree with you, do you then start insulting them?



 *From:* everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:
 everything-list@googlegroups.com] *On Behalf Of *Alberto G. Corona
 *Sent:* Sunday, November 10, 2013 6:36 PM
 *To:* everything-list


 *Subject:* Re: Our Demon-Haunted World



 I think that, since the forces of progress and human dignity lost Siberia
 as the location for stablishing psychiatrics to reconduct deviated enemies
 of the People, The North and South poles can well be used to make global
 warming negationist to reconsider is position against Humanity and human
 rights.



 Don´t you think so, comrade Meekerdb?



 2013/11/10 meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net

 On 11/9/2013 3:09 PM, Telmo Menezes wrote:

 On Sat, Nov 9, 2013 at 9:55 PM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

 On 11/9/2013 9:37 AM, spudboy...@aol.com wrote:

 Brent, my analogy, however badly its thought-up, is to force the idealists
 to produce. My idea was to force the idealist back to painful reality and
 hard choices, rather then mentally living in La La land. Saying  Oh
 they're
 working on solar and soon..

 How about forcing the libertarians to painful reality.  They're going
 through the six stages of denial:

 1. There is no global warming.
 2. The science is uncertain.
 3. There's global warming but it's just a natural cycle.
 4. Global warming will really be good for us.
 5. It's too costly to stop global warming.
 6. Nothing can be done.

 Most of them I know are stuck around 3 or 4 now.  They're hoping to delay
 any action so they can get to 6.  Why?  Because they'd rather face
 extinction than admit there are some things that you need government to do.

 Brent,

 Out of curiosity: why do you care so much about what libertarians
 think? They are a small minority. I believe most are very much aware
 that big government is here to stay. Most people in the western world
 vote for some variation of a conservative or liberal party, both
 statist.

 Surely if you are right, and global warming is an existential threat,
 and government intervention is the only way to solve it, what
 libertarians think should be quite low in your list of concerns no?


 Except that they have a disproportionate voice in the public debate
 because their message is amplified by monied interests who depend on fossil
 fuel (e.g. the Koch brothers).  There was only a small number of lawyers,
 publicists, and scientists who claimed that:

 1. Smoking has nothing to do with lung cancer.
 2. There may be a relation but the science is uncertain.
 3. Lung cancer just occurs naturally.
 4. There are new, healthier cigarettes.
 5. It will hurt the economy to limit cigarettes.
 6. People should be free to smoke if they want to.

 and they delayed any government action against smoking for forty years.
  In fact some of them are *exactly* the same people hired to spread doubt
 about global warming.  To undertake big government action in a democracy
 you need a solid majority in the populace.  As long as libertarians and oil
 companies can sow doubt that's enough to prevent any action.



 Brent

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 --
 Alberto.

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 You 

Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread spudboy100

A Grand Council of Truth? And, you already know where I am going with this. One 
night, while dining at a restaurant, a good one, the High Reasoner, meets with 
an old friend to discuss the new FIFA rules issued for the World Cup. The 
friend slides over a closed sports magazine. Have a look at this article in 
the middle, here. Inside the magazine is a rather thick envelope.

-Original Message-
From: Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be
To: everything-list everything-list@googlegroups.com
Sent: Mon, Nov 11, 2013 3:06 am
Subject: Re: Our Demon-Haunted World




On 11 Nov 2013, at 01:27, spudboy...@aol.com wrote:


 
Ok, but this is a technique for priming the intellectual pump. If it produces 
nothing good, nothing powerful, then this method would be a complete failure. 



It seems to me that this works very well, as long as the society is below some 
level of corruption, in which case you can be misinfoirmed, and by not knowing 
it and being honest, you spread the lies and this leads to problem soon or 
later. Problems comes from the liars, but also from the people who have been 
lied. It is very often hard to delineate them.


Bruno








 
 
 
-Original Message-
 From: Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be
 To: everything-list everything-list@googlegroups.com
 Sent: Sun, Nov 10, 2013 2:49 pm
 Subject: Re: Our Demon-Haunted World
 
 
 

 
 
On 09 Nov 2013, at 19:09, spudboy...@aol.com wrote:
 

 
I am emphasizing having governments print out (Keynes style) absolutely, 
colossal, amounts of cash, as a reward for coming up with excellent disease 
treatments and cures, human solar system tours, and clean energy solution, 
environmental remediation. If the banks won't fund researchers, then private 
equity will, if private equity won't then a million contributors-open 
source-will, provided they get a cut of the reward offered by a government 
prize. I wouldn't be shocked if you, Professor, Marchal, might summon up 25 
ECU's in exchange for receiving 3000 ECU's or Golden Yuans, in payment, 5 years 
later.  
 
 

 
 

 
 
Only if this reflects some honest contracts.
 

 
 
Honesty is not just moral, it is something which elevates a lot the real 
value of money. It generates trust. 
 

 
 
Be honest. 
 
If you don't try to be honest for the calm of your conscience, do it for the 
wealth of your children.
 

 
 
Today big corporations are based on lies. That's the problem.
 

 
 
Bruno
 

 
 

 
 

 
 
 
  
 
http://iridia.ulb.ac.be/~marchal/
 


 
 
 
 
 
 
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http://iridia.ulb.ac.be/~marchal/



 



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Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread spudboy100

Ah, but Brents' point is that smoking and cancer are proven fact. However, at 
the time, Troifim Lysenko's views on biology were proven. So were the 
Eugenicists that lead directly to Dachau. Almost 100% concurred (physicians, 
anthropologists, geneticists, biologists) on this fact.  

What's a motivation for exaggerating the impacting of AGW? More power over 
peoples lives by politicians (unless one agrees with the self-congratulatory 
speeches the give on their sacrifice for public service?), academicians who 
would have guaranteed income from research, Billionaires, can get subsidies 
from Uncle Sugar-so all is well.

On the other side, there are coal companies, oil drillers, who would suffer 
economically. So, who is the villain, Colonel Mustard in the kitchen, or the 
master's butler? My suspicion is that people, in the BRIC's and also the US 
must be pouring some significant co2, methane, and carbon black into the 
atmosphere. To what effect, I do not know, because I do not trust. 

All I can say, if you've got a substitute electricity maker, and it works 7x24, 
affordable, doesn't pollute, then bring it forward. If not, then we're all just 
playing pretend with our own lives. Example: When Germany shut down it nukes 2 
years ago because of Fukushima, they are now burning hundreds of megatons of US 
coal. This is the result of not having a Working Substitute ready.


-Original Message-
From: Richard Ruquist yann...@gmail.com
To: everything-list everything-list@googlegroups.com
Sent: Sun, Nov 10, 2013 8:09 pm
Subject: Re: Our Demon-Haunted World


You comment does not merit a response.



On Sun, Nov 10, 2013 at 7:58 PM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

  

On 11/10/2013 4:21 PM, Richard Ruquist  wrote:


Richard Lindzen from MIT is a serious academic  scientist who has some 
reservations about the IPCC reports  
and is often labeled as a denier. I put my faith in hisresearch.


I hope you didn't also  put your faith in those doctors who had 
reservations as to whether  smoking causes lung cancer?
  
  Brent
  

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Re: Spacetime is (nonphysical, platonic) mind

2013-11-11 Thread meekerdb

On 11/11/2013 12:11 AM, LizR wrote:
On 11 November 2013 18:18, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net mailto:meeke...@verizon.net 
wrote:


On 11/10/2013 5:59 PM, LizR wrote:

On 11 November 2013 13:53, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net
mailto:meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

On 11/10/2013 3:54 PM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:


Sure, but the thing is that *you have to*, and asking such question at 
that
stage is very likely... you can't be 10⁵ years old before having been 1 
year
old... it's simply nonsense.


So you're falling back on the all-purpose 'everything' answer; whatever 
you
observe is one of everything and that why everything is consistent with 
it -
like why I'm not a Chinaman?

There isn't any falling back here that I can see. It seems quite reasonable 
to say
you have to pass through your birthdays in ascending order. I can't see why 
that is
problematic / contraversial?


Sure, but if I live infinitely long I will have almost all my experiences 
older than
75.  So when I note that I'm not that old and that seems improbable, it's 
not an
answer to say, Well, less than 75 is an age you must be sometime.  Jason 
at least
had an answer, although I don't think his answer leads to immortality 
either.


I didn't say 75 is an age you must be sometime - I said 75 is an age you must be 
before you can be 76. You can only reach age N by traversing all lower ages first. You 
can't use a self-sampling argument to show that you shouldn't be your current age if you 
/have/ to pass through that age before you can experience any greater ages.


I don't see the relevance of that.  I had to pass through being 5 too.  Suppose you are 
shown a machine and told that it is counting to infinity, i.e. indefinitely.  You're asked 
to guess what number it's on. Would you be surprised if it were on 75?


Brent

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Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread spudboy100

You are making this too complicated. We have living examples every year when 
the power drops due to too, hot, too cold. Let's use Paris where this has 
occurred over the last 10 years at least twice. The heat comes in from North 
Africa, a blocking high happens over northern Europe, and the heat sinks in. 
France's reactors go on full, and there's still not enough air conditioning to 
cool people. Elders die first, then the very young, and there were thousands 
dead if I recall right. The same thing happens when winter sets in, peoples 
power lines drop from ice, heat goes out, people die, first the elderly, then 
the infants. In 2001 Los Angeles, but their economics ordered the price to stay 
low on Nat Gas, the suppliers said F-O, and there were rolling blackouts and 
brownouts in LA. 

My fear. Chris, installs some solar panels and wind farms, it covers 23% of 
total electrical production. Chris. order the filthy dirty fascist polluting 
power sources to go cold. There are rolling blackouts and brownouts. In 
December, a big winter storm hits. First oldsters, then babies, people complain 
a little. Chris responds, Look, people die all the time. At least a lot fewer 
people will die now of pollution caused disease, our climate will start to 
heal, we can move, now, slowly, painfully, to a clean energy future. Sacrifices 
must be made if the human species is to survive. Onward to a better brighter 
future!  

So name your poison, climate collapse or social disintegration due to a energy 
starvation? 

-Original Message-
From: Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com
To: everything-list everything-list@googlegroups.com
Sent: Sun, Nov 10, 2013 8:10 pm
Subject: RE: Our Demon-Haunted World



 
 
From: everything-list@googlegroups.com 
[mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of spudboy...@aol.com
Sent: Sunday, November 10, 2013 4:24 PM
To: everything-list@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: Our Demon-Haunted World
 

Cool, I didn't bother to look it up, but rather remembered San Onofre. 
Whatever you want for solar, and if  it cannot supply replacement electricity 
sufficiently, and you still shutdown the dirty sources, anyway, people will 
die.
 
Explain exactly how people will die? Curious to see how your thinking works to 
make you state this as if it were a fact.
 

-Original Message-
From: Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com
To: everything-list everything-list@googlegroups.com
Sent: Sun, Nov 10, 2013 2:21 pm
Subject: RE: Our Demon-Haunted World


 

 

From: everything-list@googlegroups.com 
[mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of spudboy...@aol.com
Sent: Sunday, November 10, 2013 11:08 AM
To: everything-list@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

 


One example might be the San Onofre plant in California, near San Diego. It's a 
uranium burner, and supplies 90% of the electricity, about 85% of the time. But 
let us look at your sun and wind power contribution that you mentioned before. 
40 GW, which I am assuming, is GW's per kilowatt hour, rather than a day, a 
week, etc? Lets say, its not inconsiderable (40 x 1000 MW plants) but its also 
not reliable when the sun don't shine, the winds don't blow. Do you expect 
these clean sources to fully replace the dirty one's in ten years, twenty 
years, five years, thirty? When can we turn of these poisonous electricity 
sources that we have come to rely on? Do you advocate shutting these suckers 
down, before the solar and wind supplied power is fully, implemented? 

 

The San Onofre nuclear power plant has been decommissioned – it is past its 
service life and now many more billions of dollars are going to be need to be 
spent over decades of time in order to decommission this facility – (it was 
very intelligently sited on an earthquake fault line by the way) Cost estimates 
for permanently closing and decommissioning San Onofre are over $4 billion. 

“The plant's first unit, Unit 1, operated from 1968 to 1992.[5] Unit 2 was 
started in 1983 and Unit 3 started in 1984. Upgrades designed to last 20 years 
were made to the reactor units in 2009 and 2010; however, both reactors had to 
be shut down in January 2012 due to premature wear found on over 3,000 tubes in 
the recently replaced steam generators.” 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Onofre_Nuclear_Generating_Station

The actual answer to your question then is that the San Onofre power plants are 
supplying 0% of the San Diego electric energy market with electric power.  You 
might want to pick a better example to make your case. LOL

 

 


-Original Message-
From: Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com
To: everything-list everything-list@googlegroups.com
Sent: Sun, Nov 10, 2013 1:51 pm
Subject: RE: Our Demon-Haunted World



Name me one large city that gets its power 100% exclusively from coal or from 
nuclear? You can’t because all major energy markets are fed by a mix of energy 
generation capacity. Yet you keep on with this straw 

Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread meekerdb

On 11/11/2013 12:13 AM, Bruno Marchal wrote:


On 10 Nov 2013, at 05:52, meekerdb wrote:



3. What do you recommend if the US refuses to comply?


?? You mean the U.S. government refuses to act in the best interests of it's citizens: 
Vote them out.


We could have meant that the US government fake to comply. Once a government lie, and 
the press is no more free, you might miss the data to vote them out.


In the health politics, many governments refuse to act in the interests of its citizens, 
since a long time, but very few citizens realize this, because they are kept uninformed.


And so they think their interests are different than what you think they are.  But that's 
different.   In a democracy you want the government to act according the interests people 
hold, not what someone else thinks their interests should be.  This is why a democracy 
only works well with an educated populace.  But educated is a relative term.  The world 
and technology becomes more complex and what you can really be educated in becomes a 
smaller and smaller fraction.  In many things you have to rely on experts.  But in spite 
of this, democracy still seems better than the alternatives.


Brent

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Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread meekerdb

On 11/11/2013 12:15 AM, LizR wrote:
On 11 November 2013 21:07, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be mailto:marc...@ulb.ac.be 
wrote:



On 10 Nov 2013, at 08:42, LizR wrote:


On 10 November 2013 18:11, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net
mailto:meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

On 11/9/2013 6:13 PM, spudboy...@aol.com mailto:spudboy...@aol.com 
wrote:

Let me ask you Jesse do you suggest any substitute that we can turn to 
for
transforming world civilization to clean power? The only significant 
thing I
can think of, would be hiring Craig Venter to produce some methane or 
hydrogen
maker, that can, if necessary convert sea water to fuel.


You seem ignorant that converting sea water to fuel takes more energy 
than you
can get from burning the fuel (hydrogen).  So you still need a clean 
energy
source to do the conversion.

This would be a possible way of creating fuel for easy transport. One of 
the big
points about petrol is that it's very transportable. The best solution to 
the
world's energy problems imho would be to find a method of extracting carbon 
dioxide
from the air and converting it plus water into petrol using solar power.
Carbon-neutral petrol and we don't have to rejig all our existing transport
systems. If we can extract more carbon than we use we might even cool the 
earth too.


Is that not what the plants are doing, all the time?


Yes, but unfortunately the whole process takes millions of years.


That's to produce oil and coal.  But we could just burn plants - which we once did.  Or we 
can extract liquid fuels in various ways from plants (e.g. ferment to alcohol).  But these 
methods are, so far, very inefficient - less efficient than wind or photovoltaics. Maybe 
genetic engineering of algae to produce oils will make it practical.


Brent



Can we do better, I mean today?

Not at carbon sequestration, but to achieve a reduction in CO2 by growing plants we 
would have to stop using cars and power plants and so on. The reason I gave the above 
suggestion is that if we can do it, it would enable us to be carbon neutral without 
giving up our civilisation to do so.


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Re: Spacetime is (nonphysical, platonic) mind

2013-11-11 Thread Quentin Anciaux
2013/11/11 meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net

  On 11/11/2013 12:11 AM, LizR wrote:

  On 11 November 2013 18:18, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

   On 11/10/2013 5:59 PM, LizR wrote:

 On 11 November 2013 13:53, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

  On 11/10/2013 3:54 PM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:


  Sure, but the thing is that *you have to*, and asking such question at
 that stage is very likely... you can't be 10⁵ years old before having been
 1 year old... it's simply nonsense.


  So you're falling back on the all-purpose 'everything' answer; whatever
 you observe is one of everything and that why everything is consistent with
 it - like why I'm not a Chinaman?

  There isn't any falling back here that I can see. It seems quite
 reasonable to say you have to pass through your birthdays in ascending
 order. I can't see why that is problematic / contraversial?


  Sure, but if I live infinitely long I will have almost all my
 experiences older than 75.  So when I note that I'm not that old and that
 seems improbable, it's not an answer to say, Well, less than 75 is an age
 you must be sometime.  Jason at least had an answer, although I don't
 think his answer leads to immortality either.


  I didn't say 75 is an age you must be sometime - I said 75 is an age
 you must be before you can be 76. You can only reach age N by traversing
 all lower ages first. You can't use a self-sampling argument to show that
 you shouldn't be your current age if you *have* to pass through that age
 before you can experience any greater ages.


 I don't see the relevance of that.  I had to pass through being 5 too.
 Suppose you are shown a machine and told that it is counting to infinity,
 i.e. indefinitely.  You're asked to guess what number it's on. Would you be
 surprised if it were on 75?


It depends how fast it counts and when it was built... If the machine was
built recently, and it added 1 every year... no I wouldn't.

Quentin


 Brent

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Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread meekerdb

On 11/11/2013 1:28 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote:

I didn't say I didn't feel like it or that I was unwilling to do it. I
said I believed it would not be possible, with a reasonable amount of
effort, to have an informed opinion. Are you a climatologist? If not,
you seem to believe otherwise beacuse you arrived at a strong
conclusion. In which case, feel free to tell me about the models and
why it's easier to be certain than I think.


I'm not a climatologist, but I can read the literature.  I certainly don't have the time, 
expertise, nor inclination to teach an online class in climate change, and it would be 
redundant anyway.  Read David Archer's book Global Warming, Understanding the Forecast, 
it has plenty of references to the scientific literature.  There are excellent discussions 
of every aspect of the scientific climate questions (but not the economic or human impact) 
online at realclimate.org.  Read the comments too, there are plenty of critics of specific 
technical points - as in any real scientific enterprise.


Brent

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Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread spudboy100

This is true, Professor Marchal, but more directly, what if they tell Brent, as 
US Director of the  Climatological Remediation Bureau, Stop telling is what to 
do. You are already rich and all we want to do is catch up. It's not fair that 
you have so much, while our people struggle. Why don't you go worry about your 
own country, and leave us the hell, alone!  

Brent, in direct contact with the Prime Minister/President, recommends an 
economic boycott of the environmental polluters. The BRIC's respond with fury, 
and declare a counter boycott. China goes to the UN to complain about economic 
imperialism, and tries to persuade other countries to boycott these wicked, 
imperialist, westerners, from using economic weapons to damage the economy and 
political independence of their home lands. All Loans to the imperialist 
country, the ASU, are halted. 

The President calls this economic and monetary, piracy! Brent, disgusted by 
their insane, intransigence, on the climate, on human survival, calls the 
President at the golf course, or shooting hoops, says: Sir. These people and 
their wicked polluting ways must cease otherwise, the future of our children 
and their children cannot be assured. The President asks: What do you 
recommend, Brent? Brent, tersely, replies: We must make an example, Mr. Prime 
Minister, one of their cities, using a airbust attack at 350 meters, detonating 
force at 150 kiloton yield. The President is silent for several seconds. Brent 
uses this as a spot to jump in, Look, Mr. Prime Minister, our psy-ops teams 
have determined that if we act soon, the opponents of fighting AGW, will not 
only cave, economically, but also environmentally! They will adhere to Kyoto, 
and so much, more, They want their people to survive as well! The 
President/Prime Minister thinks a moment

Of course most progressives, simply ignore what the BRIC's contribute to AGW, 
and just focus on Europe, North America, New Zealand and Aus. This is because 
the BRIC's are mostly brown toned, and they also tend to get violent if you 
piss them off. Not like us lily livered  yanks. 


-Original Message-
From: Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be
To: everything-list everything-list@googlegroups.com
Sent: Mon, Nov 11, 2013 3:13 am
Subject: Re: Our Demon-Haunted World




On 10 Nov 2013, at 05:52, meekerdb wrote:




3. What do you recommend if the US refuses to comply?

?? You mean the U.S. government refuses to act in the best interests of it's 
citizens: Vote them out.


We could have meant that the US government fake to comply. Once a government 
lie, and the press is no more free, you might miss the data to vote them out.


In the health politics, many governments refuse to act in the interests of its 
citizens, since a long time, but very few citizens realize this, because they 
are kept uninformed.


Bruno








 
http://iridia.ulb.ac.be/~marchal/



 



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Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread meekerdb

On 11/11/2013 1:47 AM, LizR wrote:
Obviously they could all be politically motivated or in the pay of mysterious socialist 
organisations, and it's always possible that their modelling is wildly inaccurate, but 
unless someone is actually making up the data and the measurements then /something/ is 
going on which is causing the world to warm.


And I would add that the modeling has consistently predicted global warming from fossil 
fuel burning starting with Savante Arhennius's pencil and paper calculations in 1890.  
It's simple, basic physics see that more CO2 in the atmosphere will make it warmer. It's 
much harder to say exactly how much.  It's harder still to predict the effects on weather 
patterns, biota, and economies.  So one has varying degrees of confidence, depending on 
what variables are being predicted.  But remember that uncertainty can go either way - 
it's not a knock-down argument for inaction.


Brent

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Re: Spacetime is (nonphysical, platonic) mind

2013-11-11 Thread meekerdb

On 11/11/2013 1:47 AM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:


Sure, but if I live infinitely long I will have almost all my experiences 
older than
75.  So when I note that I'm not that old and that seems improbable,


The thing is as I said is that you have to be *first* 75 before being older... you're 
talking like every moment of your life was chosen randomly... they aren't (at least for 
me) before today, it was yesterday, not a random moment, and tomorrow will be tomorrow 
not a random moment in my life. Using your argument I should never have been a child.


No, I'm just saying that sampling your life at random I'm less likely to find you being 
less than a year old than being less than a thousand years old.


If my life is infinite, then it seems surprising that I find myself less than 
75yrs old.

I don't think this is a very strong argument, since it would apply no matter what age I 
found myself to be.  But it seems curious that I find it to be true of everyone around me 
also.  As though we all started more or less together.  So we weren't past eternal either.


Brent

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Re: Spacetime is (nonphysical, platonic) mind

2013-11-11 Thread Quentin Anciaux
2013/11/11 meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net

  On 11/11/2013 1:47 AM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:

  Sure, but if I live infinitely long I will have almost all my
 experiences older than 75.  So when I note that I'm not that old and that
 seems improbable,


  The thing is as I said is that you have to be *first* 75 before being
 older... you're talking like every moment of your life was chosen
 randomly... they aren't (at least for me) before today, it was yesterday,
 not a random moment, and tomorrow will be tomorrow not a random moment in
 my life. Using your argument I should never have been a child.


 No, I'm just saying that sampling your life at random


Your life is not sampled at random, you have to be one year old before
being 75; before being 1000 before being 10¹⁰.


 I'm less likely to find you


You find you every day, according to you, every day should not happen, only
being 10¹⁰⁰ is likely, it's just non-sense,
your life is not random sampled, yesterday happen before today and before
tomorrow. That doesn't make today less likely than tomorrow.


 being less than a year old than being less than a thousand years old.

 If my life is infinite, then it seems surprising that I find myself less
 than 75yrs old.


It's not, because it is mandatory that in that long lifespan you find
yourself 75. You cannot be very old before having been less old. Your life
is sequential and that sequence cannot be avoided, even if you'll live an
infinity of time.


 I don't think this is a very strong argument, since it would apply no
 matter what age I found myself to be.


Exactly, it's just ASSA is non-sensical.


  But it seems curious that I find it to be true of everyone around me
 also.  As though we all started more or less together.  So we weren't past
 eternal either.


I don't see how QI imples past eternality, it's not mandatory that infinity
goes both way, things can have a start without an end.

Quentin



 Brent

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Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread Alberto G. Corona
Ah the apocalyptic mentality. Apocalypticists are like nationalists.
The laters think that they were born in the best possible country by pure
chance. The apocalypticists, also by pure chance, think that they are in a
pivotal moment on history where some catastrophe or something wonderful
will happen. The end of all wars, the prosperity forever, the enlightened
age of eternal progress, the climatic apocalypse, the new Acuario age, or
the second coming of Christ. (or the first coming of the leader that will
end wars, tame the climate,a inaugurate an acuario age and so on).

Of the two, the apocalypticists are the worst. A nationalist can kill few
before being defeated because they can´t hide the fact that they work for
themselves and they find rapid opposition.

but the apocalypticsts work for the good of humanity and are here and
there everywhere, ready to commit whatever crimes to advance or avoid the
coming apocalypse. And because their propaganda say that they work for the
good of Humanity, and not for themselves and their laboratories and their
political careers, they find little opposition. On the contrary, they find
armies of hyperinformed idiots. They are late-news addicts with null
background knowledge in human affairs and almost in anything else except
his little specialization, uncapable to interpret and integrate what they
see and hear for a couple of yeas if not days and compose mentally the big
picture. Ther fish-like memory and their opinions are shaped by
professional opinators that follow the smell of money and the last trends
in polls.

You can do little against their propaganda armies. Their generals don´t
have personal lifes. They are  like priests, dedicated to evangelize
unbelievers to their obsessions. Occupy the burocracies of the states and
specially the international institutions. they feel compelled to work in
the mass media and the Education.   You will never win the battle. You have
a familly, children, a future in which to think... They don`t.

Just mock at them. sit patiently an wait for the reality to work for you,
and the apocalypse will ridicule them one more time with his absence.

The great and unlooked for discoveries that have taken place of late years
have all concurred to lead many men into the opinion that we were touching
on a period big with the most important
changes.http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/t/thomasmalt366117.html
Thomas Malthushttp://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/t/thomasmalt366117.html
 ☨1834


2013/11/11 meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net

  On 11/11/2013 1:47 AM, LizR wrote:

 Obviously they could all be politically motivated or in the pay of
 mysterious socialist organisations, and it's always possible that their
 modelling is wildly inaccurate, but unless someone is actually making up
 the data and the measurements then *something* is going on which is
 causing the world to warm.


 And I would add that the modeling has consistently predicted global
 warming from fossil fuel burning starting with Savante Arhennius's pencil
 and paper calculations in 1890.  It's simple, basic physics see that more
 CO2 in the atmosphere will make it warmer. It's much harder to say
 exactly how much.  It's harder still to predict the effects on weather
 patterns, biota, and economies.  So one has varying degrees of confidence,
 depending on what variables are being predicted.  But remember that
 uncertainty can go either way - it's not a knock-down argument for inaction.

 Brent

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Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread Telmo Menezes
On Mon, Nov 11, 2013 at 7:55 PM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:
 On 11/11/2013 1:28 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote:

 I didn't say I didn't feel like it or that I was unwilling to do it. I
 said I believed it would not be possible, with a reasonable amount of
 effort, to have an informed opinion. Are you a climatologist? If not,
 you seem to believe otherwise beacuse you arrived at a strong
 conclusion. In which case, feel free to tell me about the models and
 why it's easier to be certain than I think.


 I'm not a climatologist, but I can read the literature.  I certainly don't
 have the time, expertise, nor inclination to teach an online class in
 climate change, and it would be redundant anyway.  Read David Archer's book
 Global Warming, Understanding the Forecast, it has plenty of references to
 the scientific literature.  There are excellent discussions of every aspect
 of the scientific climate questions (but not the economic or human impact)
 online at realclimate.org.  Read the comments too, there are plenty of
 critics of specific technical points - as in any real scientific enterprise.

Alright, thanks for the references. I'll dig in as time permits!

Best,
Telmo.

 Brent

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Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread meekerdb

On 11/11/2013 10:13 AM, spudboy...@aol.com wrote:
Ah, but Brents' point is that smoking and cancer are proven fact. However, at the time, 
Troifim Lysenko's views on biology were proven. 


?? To nobody outside the Soviet Union - and only to a few there.

So were the Eugenicists that lead directly to Dachau. 


That's like saying Mendel led directly to Dachau - for very expansive meanings of 
directly.

Almost 100% concurred (physicians, anthropologists, geneticists, biologists) on this 
fact. 


And your source for this is?

Brent

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Re: Spacetime is (nonphysical, platonic) mind

2013-11-11 Thread meekerdb

On 11/11/2013 10:42 AM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:




2013/11/11 meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net mailto:meeke...@verizon.net

On 11/11/2013 12:11 AM, LizR wrote:

On 11 November 2013 18:18, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net
mailto:meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

On 11/10/2013 5:59 PM, LizR wrote:

On 11 November 2013 13:53, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net
mailto:meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

On 11/10/2013 3:54 PM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:


Sure, but the thing is that *you have to*, and asking such question 
at
that stage is very likely... you can't be 10⁵ years old before 
having
been 1 year old... it's simply nonsense.


So you're falling back on the all-purpose 'everything' answer; 
whatever
you observe is one of everything and that why everything is 
consistent
with it - like why I'm not a Chinaman?

There isn't any falling back here that I can see. It seems quite 
reasonable to
say you have to pass through your birthdays in ascending order. I can't 
see
why that is problematic / contraversial?


Sure, but if I live infinitely long I will have almost all my 
experiences older
than 75.  So when I note that I'm not that old and that seems 
improbable, it's
not an answer to say, Well, less than 75 is an age you must be sometime. 
Jason at least had an answer, although I don't think his answer leads to

immortality either.


I didn't say 75 is an age you must be sometime - I said 75 is an age you 
must be
before you can be 76. You can only reach age N by traversing all lower 
ages first.
You can't use a self-sampling argument to show that you shouldn't be your 
current
age if you /have/ to pass through that age before you can experience any 
greater ages.


I don't see the relevance of that.  I had to pass through being 5 too.  
Suppose you
are shown a machine and told that it is counting to infinity, i.e. indefinitely. 
You're asked to guess what number it's on. Would you be surprised if it were on 75?



It depends how fast it counts and when it was built... If the machine was built 
recently, and it added 1 every year... no I wouldn't.




Suppose you were told it's been around forever.

Brent

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Re: Spacetime is (nonphysical, platonic) mind

2013-11-11 Thread meekerdb

On 11/11/2013 11:21 AM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:
You find you every day, according to you, every day should not happen, only being 
10¹⁰⁰ is likely, it's just non-sense, your life is not 
random sampled, yesterday happen before today and before tomorrow. That doesn't make 
today less likely than tomorrow.


Sure, but it makes the interval (0,75) less likely than the interval (75, inf).

But what's your analysis?  Everybody I've ever heard of who was more than 40yrs older than 
me is dead.  Do you not see that as evidence against my immortality?


Brent

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Re: Spacetime is (nonphysical, platonic) mind

2013-11-11 Thread Quentin Anciaux
2013/11/11 meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net

  On 11/11/2013 11:21 AM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:

 You find you every day, according to you, every day should not happen,
 only being 10¹⁰⁰ is likely, it's just
 non-sense, your life is not random sampled, yesterday happen before today
 and before tomorrow. That doesn't make today less likely than tomorrow.


 Sure, but it makes the interval (0,75) less likely than the interval (75,
 inf).


Only if your current moment was sampled from all the available you
moments, but that's not the case...



 But what's your analysis?  Everybody I've ever heard of who was more than
 40yrs older than me is dead.  Do you not see that as evidence against my
 immortality?


I see this as evidence that if immortality is true it cannot be shared...
by itself it does not rule it out.

Quentin



 Brent

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Re: Spacetime is (nonphysical, platonic) mind

2013-11-11 Thread LizR
On 12 November 2013 09:37, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

  On 11/11/2013 11:21 AM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:

 You find you every day, according to you, every day should not happen,
 only being 10¹⁰⁰ is likely, it's just
 non-sense, your life is not random sampled, yesterday happen before today
 and before tomorrow. That doesn't make today less likely than tomorrow.


 Sure, but it makes the interval (0,75) less likely than the interval (75,
 inf).

 Unless you're Billy Pilgrim from  Slaughterhouse 5 this argument doesn't
make sense, beause you are forced to sample your days in ascending order.

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Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread LizR
On 12 November 2013 07:13, spudboy...@aol.com wrote:

 However, at the time, Troifim Lysenko's views on biology were proven.


I didn't realise the Russian government at the time allowed his views to be
peer reviewed and independently replicated. In fact I thought they created
a climate in which no one was safely able to dispute his views. Without the
normal scientific processes being available, these views were not 'proven
or even tested.

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Re: Spacetime is (nonphysical, platonic) mind

2013-11-11 Thread meekerdb

On 11/11/2013 3:39 PM, LizR wrote:
On 12 November 2013 09:37, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net mailto:meeke...@verizon.net 
wrote:


On 11/11/2013 11:21 AM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:

You find you every day, according to you, every day should not happen, only 
being
10¹⁰⁰ is likely, it's just non-sense, your life 
is not
random sampled, yesterday happen before today and before tomorrow. That 
doesn't
make today less likely than tomorrow.


Sure, but it makes the interval (0,75) less likely than the interval (75, 
inf).

Unless you're Billy Pilgrim from  Slaughterhouse 5 this argument doesn't make sense, 
beause you are forced to sample your days in ascending order.


But what does that have to do with the probabilities?  A sample is when I ask myself, 
how probable is it that my age is what it is today.  I don't have to do this everyday.  In 
fact I'm very unlikely to have done it before age 4.  So I don't see why sequence is 
determinative.  ISTM is only implies that tomorrow will be less likely than today (since I 
may not ask tomorrow; possibly because I'm dead).


Suppose you're Benjamin Button.  For him would it be OK to say it's surprising 
I'm only 75?

Brent

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Re: Spacetime is (nonphysical, platonic) mind

2013-11-11 Thread LizR
On 12 November 2013 13:03, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

  On 11/11/2013 3:39 PM, LizR wrote:

 On 12 November 2013 09:37, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

  On 11/11/2013 11:21 AM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:

 You find you every day, according to you, every day should not happen,
 only being 10¹⁰⁰ is likely, it's just
 non-sense, your life is not random sampled, yesterday happen before today
 and before tomorrow. That doesn't make today less likely than tomorrow.


  Sure, but it makes the interval (0,75) less likely than the interval
 (75, inf).

  Unless you're Billy Pilgrim from  Slaughterhouse 5 this argument
 doesn't make sense, beause you are forced to sample your days in ascending
 order.


 But what does that have to do with the probabilities?  A sample is when
 I ask myself, how probable is it that my age is what it is today.  I don't
 have to do this everyday.  In fact I'm very unlikely to have done it before
 age 4.  So I don't see why sequence is determinative.  ISTM is only implies
 that tomorrow will be less likely than today (since I may not ask tomorrow;
 possibly because I'm dead).


Sequence is determinative because that's how the universe works. Tomorrow,
and tomorrow, and tomorrow, creeps in this petty pace from day to day, to
the last syllable of recorded time. That's the second law doing its thing,
and unless you've got very good reason to think otherwise, you shouldn't be
surprised that it is. All we're saying is that you should be unsurprised to
find yourself living your life in ascending order. You have to pass through
your current age at some point, unless you die first, and you should expect
to do so before you reach a greater age. If at your current age you ask how
probable it is that you are your current age, the answer is 1. If you're
quantum immortal then you will have the same probability every time you ask
yourself that question into the indefinite future. You are always 100%
likely to be your present age!


 Suppose you're Benjamin Button.  For him would it be OK to say it's
 surprising I'm only 75?


I don't know anything about Benjamin Button.

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Re: Spacetime is (nonphysical, platonic) mind

2013-11-11 Thread LizR
Actually, if you were Billy Pilgrim, you would know immediately you fell
into the chronosyncinastic infundibulum (sp?) whether you were quantum
immortal or not, because the chances would be infinitesimal of ending up in
the first N years of your life, where N is *any* finite value. In fact
Vonnegut got that wrong (in a way) because he said there were both
pre-birth and post-death existences and if these lasted indefinitely, there
would hardly be any chance that Billy would see one second of his life on
Earth (or Tralfamadore (sp?)) ever again. Yet in the novel he was there
almost all the (subjective) time, a bit like Dr Who always turning up on
20th century Earth despite having an entire universe and infinite time to
wander in.

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Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread Alberto G. Corona
Every science whose conclusions have effects in politics has a high risk of
being manipulated. In the URSS and here. From Anthropology to long term
Meteorology to everything in the middle. The one that does not realize that
is poor fool who does not know how the world works and has replaced with
all his innocent stupidity the fairy tales of the past with the fairy tales
of supposed sciences.

If you read the mails of the East Anglia Climategate scandal, One of the
main concern of the Warmists were about to keep in control over the peer
reviewing mechanism of the main scientific magazines Long interchanges of
mails were devoted to talk about stablishing barriers in the peer reviewed
magazines by perverting the PR mechanisms.

The fact is that peer reviewing is not a guaranty, on the contraty. It acts
as an ideological filter  rather than as a quality filter in every
discipline in which politics and scientists benefit from mutual cooperation
by interchanging money for ideological ammunition.


2013/11/12 LizR lizj...@gmail.com

 On 12 November 2013 07:13, spudboy...@aol.com wrote:

  However, at the time, Troifim Lysenko's views on biology were proven.


 I didn't realise the Russian government at the time allowed his views to
 be peer reviewed and independently replicated. In fact I thought they
 created a climate in which no one was safely able to dispute his views.
 Without the normal scientific processes being available, these views were
 not 'proven or even tested.

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Re: Spacetime is (nonphysical, platonic) mind

2013-11-11 Thread meekerdb

On 11/11/2013 4:29 PM, LizR wrote:
On 12 November 2013 13:03, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net mailto:meeke...@verizon.net 
wrote:


On 11/11/2013 3:39 PM, LizR wrote:

On 12 November 2013 09:37, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net
mailto:meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

On 11/11/2013 11:21 AM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:

You find you every day, according to you, every day should not happen, 
only
being 10¹⁰⁰ is likely, it's just non-sense, 
your
life is not random sampled, yesterday happen before today and before 
tomorrow.
That doesn't make today less likely than tomorrow.


Sure, but it makes the interval (0,75) less likely than the interval 
(75, inf).

Unless you're Billy Pilgrim from  Slaughterhouse 5 this argument doesn't 
make
sense, beause you are forced to sample your days in ascending order.


But what does that have to do with the probabilities?  A sample is when I 
ask
myself, how probable is it that my age is what it is today.  I don't have 
to do this
everyday.  In fact I'm very unlikely to have done it before age 4.  So I 
don't see
why sequence is determinative.  ISTM is only implies that tomorrow will be 
less
likely than today (since I may not ask tomorrow; possibly because I'm dead).


Sequence is determinative because that's how the universe works. Tomorrow, and tomorrow, 
and tomorrow, creeps in this petty pace from day to day, to the last syllable of 
recorded time. That's the second law doing its thing, and unless you've got very good 
reason to think otherwise, you shouldn't be surprised that it is. All we're saying is 
that you should be unsurprised to find yourself living your life in ascending order. You 
have to pass through your current age at some point, unless you die first, and you 
should expect to do so before you reach a greater age. If at your current age you ask 
how probable it is that you are your current age, the answer is 1. If you're quantum 
immortal then you will have the same probability every time you ask yourself that 
question into the indefinite future. You are always 100% likely to be your present age!



Suppose you're Benjamin Button.  For him would it be OK to say it's 
surprising I'm
only 75?


I don't know anything about Benjamin Button.


Benjamin Button lived his life in reverse.

So I'll ask you the same thing I asked Quentin, what's you inference from the fact you, 
and every body you've ever heard of died before reaching age 150?


Brent

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Re: Spacetime is (nonphysical, platonic) mind

2013-11-11 Thread meekerdb

On 11/11/2013 4:39 PM, LizR wrote:
Actually, if you were Billy Pilgrim, you would know immediately you fell into the 
chronosyncinastic infundibulum (sp?) whether you were quantum immortal or not, because 
the chances would be infinitesimal of ending up in the first N years of your life, where 
N is /any/ finite value. In fact Vonnegut got that wrong (in a way) because he said 
there were both pre-birth and post-death existences and if these lasted indefinitely, 
there would hardly be any chance that Billy would see one second of his life on Earth 
(or Tralfamadore (sp?)) ever again. Yet in the novel he was there almost all the 
(subjective) time, a bit like Dr Who always turning up on 20th century Earth despite 
having an entire universe and infinite time to wander in.


Do I have an infinite lifetime in which to ask, Why am I not older than 75?

Brent

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Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread meekerdb

On 11/11/2013 5:04 PM, Alberto G. Corona wrote:
Every science whose conclusions have effects in politics has a high risk of being 
manipulated. In the URSS and here. From Anthropology to long term Meteorology to 
everything in the middle. The one that does not realize that is poor fool who does not 
know how the world works and has replaced with all his innocent stupidity the fairy 
tales of the past with the fairy tales of supposed sciences.


If you read the mails of the East Anglia Climategate scandal, One of the main concern of 
the Warmists were about to keep in control over the peer reviewing mechanism of the main 
scientific magazines Long interchanges of mails were devoted to talk about stablishing 
barriers in the peer reviewed magazines by perverting the PR mechanisms.


Because they had already seen the process being manipulated by the well funded Deniers and 
their political allies.




The fact is that peer reviewing is not a guaranty, on the contraty. It acts as an 
ideological filter  rather than as a quality filter in every discipline in which 
politics and scientists benefit from mutual cooperation by interchanging money for 
ideological ammunition.


Yes, some scientists might be biased - so we should assumed you deniers have the truth on 
the basis of no evidence except that in the past some scientists have been biased.


Brent

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Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread LizR
On 12 November 2013 14:04, Alberto G. Corona agocor...@gmail.com wrote:

 Every science whose conclusions have effects in politics has a high risk
 of being manipulated. In the URSS and here. From Anthropology to long term
 Meteorology to everything in the middle. The one that does not realize that
 is poor fool who does not know how the world works and has replaced with
 all his innocent stupidity the fairy tales of the past with the fairy tales
 of supposed sciences.


Yes of course.


 If you read the mails of the East Anglia Climategate scandal, One of the
 main concern of the Warmists were about to keep in control over the peer
 reviewing mechanism of the main scientific magazines Long interchanges of
 mails were devoted to talk about stablishing barriers in the peer reviewed
 magazines by perverting the PR mechanisms.

 The fact is that peer reviewing is not a guaranty, on the contraty. It
 acts as an ideological filter  rather than as a quality filter in every
 discipline in which politics and scientists benefit from mutual cooperation
 by interchanging money for ideological ammunition.


So what would you suggest as a replacement? The scientific method is, to
paraphrase Winston Churchill on democracy, the worst system we have apart
from all the others we've tried.

You might like to consider that hurricanes and bush fires and rising seas
and melting glaciers can't be influenced by political opinion, and it would
take a huge effort to generate the evidence coming in from all over the
world as part of some vast conspiracy. We're forever hearing about the
wildest storms, the highest (and lowest) temperatures on record, the
greatest floods and droughts and so on.

Is it just possible that the overwhelming mountain of evidence indicates,
maybe, something is really going on?

(And by the way, supposing there is no global warming and we go ahead and
develop sustainable power sources for no reason whatsoever before the oil
runs out - won't that just be awful?)

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Re: Spacetime is (nonphysical, platonic) mind

2013-11-11 Thread LizR
On 12 November 2013 14:16, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

  On 11/11/2013 4:39 PM, LizR wrote:

 Actually, if you were Billy Pilgrim, you would know immediately you fell
 into the chronosyncinastic infundibulum (sp?) whether you were quantum
 immortal or not, because the chances would be infinitesimal of ending up in
 the first N years of your life, where N is *any* finite value. In fact
 Vonnegut got that wrong (in a way) because he said there were both
 pre-birth and post-death existences and if these lasted indefinitely, there
 would hardly be any chance that Billy would see one second of his life on
 Earth (or Tralfamadore (sp?)) ever again. Yet in the novel he was there
 almost all the (subjective) time, a bit like Dr Who always turning up on
 20th century Earth despite having an entire universe and infinite time to
 wander in.


 Do I have an infinite lifetime in which to ask, Why am I not older than
 75?


I don't know. Presumably you wouldn't ask yourself that once you were over
75. But the point is, you have to be less than 75 until you reach the age
of 75.

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Re: Spacetime is (nonphysical, platonic) mind

2013-11-11 Thread LizR
On 12 November 2013 14:14, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

  On 11/11/2013 4:29 PM, LizR wrote:

 On 12 November 2013 13:03, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

   On 11/11/2013 3:39 PM, LizR wrote:

 On 12 November 2013 09:37, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

  On 11/11/2013 11:21 AM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:

 You find you every day, according to you, every day should not happen,
 only being 10¹⁰⁰ is likely, it's just
 non-sense, your life is not random sampled, yesterday happen before today
 and before tomorrow. That doesn't make today less likely than tomorrow.


  Sure, but it makes the interval (0,75) less likely than the interval
 (75, inf).

  Unless you're Billy Pilgrim from  Slaughterhouse 5 this argument
 doesn't make sense, beause you are forced to sample your days in ascending
 order.


  But what does that have to do with the probabilities?  A sample is
 when I ask myself, how probable is it that my age is what it is today.  I
 don't have to do this everyday.  In fact I'm very unlikely to have done it
 before age 4.  So I don't see why sequence is determinative.  ISTM is only
 implies that tomorrow will be less likely than today (since I may not ask
 tomorrow; possibly because I'm dead).


  Sequence is determinative because that's how the universe works.
 Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow, creeps in this petty pace from day to
 day, to the last syllable of recorded time. That's the second law doing its
 thing, and unless you've got very good reason to think otherwise, you
 shouldn't be surprised that it is. All we're saying is that you should be
 unsurprised to find yourself living your life in ascending order. You have
 to pass through your current age at some point, unless you die first, and
 you should expect to do so before you reach a greater age. If at your
 current age you ask how probable it is that you are your current age, the
 answer is 1. If you're quantum immortal then you will have the same
 probability every time you ask yourself that question into the indefinite
 future. You are always 100% likely to be your present age!


 Suppose you're Benjamin Button.  For him would it be OK to say it's
 surprising I'm only 75?


  I don't know anything about Benjamin Button.


 Benjamin Button lived his life in reverse.

 Oh, right, like the guy in Martin Amis' Time's Arrow (itself a rip off
from An Age by Brian Aldiss). Presumably according to QTI he's at the end
of an infinite future lifetime, or whatever? But since he's unphysical I
guess we can say what we like about him.


 So I'll ask you the same thing I asked Quentin, what's you inference from
 the fact you, and every body you've ever heard of died before reaching age
 150?


My normal inference is that everyone dies. Apparently the QTI throws doubt
on this by pointing out that we have only sampled an infinitesimal
proportion of the available branches of the multiverse, and that in another
infinitesimal portion there might be people who live forever (somehow).

What is your inference from the fact that everywhere you've ever travelled
has been on or near the surface of a congenial planet supplied with air,
water and all the necessities of life?

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Re: Spacetime is (nonphysical, platonic) mind

2013-11-11 Thread meekerdb

On 11/11/2013 6:38 PM, LizR wrote:



Benjamin Button lived his life in reverse.

Oh, right, like the guy in Martin Amis' Time's Arrow (itself a rip off from An Age 
by Brian Aldiss). Presumably according to QTI he's at the end of an infinite future 
lifetime, or whatever? But since he's unphysical I guess we can say what we like about him.


The Curious Case of Benjamin Button was by F. Scott Fitzgerald (1922).


So I'll ask you the same thing I asked Quentin, what's you inference from 
the fact
you, and every body you've ever heard of died before reaching age 150?


My normal inference is that everyone dies. Apparently the QTI throws doubt on this by 
pointing out that we have only sampled an infinitesimal proportion of the available 
branches of the multiverse, and that in another infinitesimal portion there might be 
people who live forever (somehow).


But doesn't QTI imply that everybody is immortal, as Jason infers. Did you read Divided 
by Inifinity yet?




What is your inference from the fact that everywhere you've ever travelled has been on 
or near the surface of a congenial planet supplied with air, water and all the 
necessities of life?


That I'm the product of evolution on this planet.

Brent

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Re: Spacetime is (nonphysical, platonic) mind

2013-11-11 Thread LizR
On 12 November 2013 16:03, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote:

  On 11/11/2013 6:38 PM, LizR wrote:


  Benjamin Button lived his life in reverse.

  Oh, right, like the guy in Martin Amis' Time's Arrow (itself a rip
 off from An Age by Brian Aldiss). Presumably according to QTI he's at the
 end of an infinite future lifetime, or whatever? But since he's unphysical
 I guess we can say what we like about him.


 The Curious Case of Benjamin Button was by F. Scott Fitzgerald (1922).


Oh well, he gets precedence, then. But in any case I don't see any
particular relevance, probably that's my fault...

  So I'll ask you the same thing I asked Quentin, what's you inference
 from the fact you, and every body you've ever heard of died before reaching
 age 150?


  My normal inference is that everyone dies. Apparently the QTI throws
 doubt on this by pointing out that we have only sampled an infinitesimal
 proportion of the available branches of the multiverse, and that in another
 infinitesimal portion there might be people who live forever (somehow).

 But doesn't QTI imply that everybody is immortal, as Jason infers.  Did
 you read Divided by Inifinity yet?

 Yes it does, but only in infinitesimal slivers of the multiverse, which is
what I was trying to say in my roundabout way.

No I skimmed it, but I hope / think I get the point. Is there anything else
I should be taking from it apart from this is what quantum immortality
might look like, assuming a nearby gamma ray burst and so on ?

 What is your inference from the fact that everywhere you've ever travelled
 has been on or near the surface of a congenial planet supplied with air,
 water and all the necessities of life?

 That I'm the product of evolution on this planet.


Right, you're here in an extremely unlikely situation if you take random
samples from the universe. I was trying to draw a parallel here, if I can
just remember what it was...

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Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread Bruno Marchal


On 11 Nov 2013, at 18:49, spudboy...@aol.com wrote:


A Grand Council of Truth?



Certainly not. Honesty is not knowing truth. It is just being able  
to correct oneself when being shown wrong. It is very simple, if they  
were not jealousy, vanity, pride, and things like that.




And, you already know where I am going with this. One night, while  
dining at a restaurant, a good one, the High Reasoner, meets with an  
old friend to discuss the new FIFA rules issued for the World Cup.  
The friend slides over a closed sports magazine. Have a look at  
this article in the middle, here. Inside the magazine is a rather  
thick envelope.

-Original Message-
From: Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be
To: everything-list everything-list@googlegroups.com
Sent: Mon, Nov 11, 2013 3:06 am
Subject: Re: Our Demon-Haunted World


On 11 Nov 2013, at 01:27, spudboy...@aol.com wrote:

Ok, but this is a technique for priming the intellectual pump. If  
it produces nothing good, nothing powerful, then this method would  
be a complete failure.


It seems to me that this works very well, as long as the society is  
below some level of corruption, in which case you can be  
misinfoirmed, and by not knowing it and being honest, you spread the  
lies and this leads to problem soon or later. Problems comes from  
the liars, but also from the people who have been lied. It is very  
often hard to delineate them.


Bruno





-Original Message-
From: Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be
To: everything-list everything-list@googlegroups.com
Sent: Sun, Nov 10, 2013 2:49 pm
Subject: Re: Our Demon-Haunted World


On 09 Nov 2013, at 19:09, spudboy...@aol.com wrote:

I am emphasizing having governments print out (Keynes style)  
absolutely, colossal, amounts of cash, as a reward for coming up  
with excellent disease treatments and cures, human solar system  
tours, and clean energy solution, environmental remediation. If  
the banks won't fund researchers, then private equity will, if  
private equity won't then a million contributors-open source-will,  
provided they get a cut of the reward offered by a government  
prize. I wouldn't be shocked if you, Professor, Marchal, might  
summon up 25 ECU's in exchange for receiving 3000 ECU's or Golden  
Yuans, in payment, 5 years later.



Only if this reflects some honest contracts.

Honesty is not just moral, it is something which elevates a lot  
the real value of money. It generates trust.


Be honest.
If you don't try to be honest for the calm of your conscience, do  
it for the wealth of your children.


Today big corporations are based on lies. That's the problem.

Bruno



http://iridia.ulb.ac.be/~marchal/



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Re: Spacetime is (nonphysical, platonic) mind

2013-11-11 Thread meekerdb

On 11/11/2013 7:35 PM, LizR wrote:
On 12 November 2013 16:03, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net mailto:meeke...@verizon.net 
wrote:


On 11/11/2013 6:38 PM, LizR wrote:



Benjamin Button lived his life in reverse.

Oh, right, like the guy in Martin Amis' Time's Arrow (itself a rip off from 
An
Age by Brian Aldiss). Presumably according to QTI he's at the end of an 
infinite
future lifetime, or whatever? But since he's unphysical I guess we can say 
what we
like about him.


The Curious Case of Benjamin Button was by F. Scott Fitzgerald (1922).

Oh well, he gets precedence, then. But in any case I don't see any particular relevance, 
probably that's my fault...



So I'll ask you the same thing I asked Quentin, what's you inference 
from the
fact you, and every body you've ever heard of died before reaching age 
150?


My normal inference is that everyone dies. Apparently the QTI throws doubt 
on this
by pointing out that we have only sampled an infinitesimal proportion of the
available branches of the multiverse, and that in another infinitesimal 
portion
there might be people who live forever (somehow).

But doesn't QTI imply that everybody is immortal, as Jason infers.  Did you 
read
Divided by Inifinity yet?

Yes it does, but only in infinitesimal slivers of the multiverse, which is what I was 
trying to say in my roundabout way.


No I skimmed it, but I hope / think I get the point. Is there anything else I should be 
taking from it apart from this is what quantum immortality might look like, assuming a 
nearby gamma ray burst and so on ?



What is your inference from the fact that everywhere you've ever travelled 
has been
on or near the surface of a congenial planet supplied with air, water and 
all the
necessities of life?

That I'm the product of evolution on this planet.


Right, you're here in an extremely unlikely situation if you take random samples from 
the universe. I was trying to draw a parallel here, if I can just remember what it was...


That you can't infer much from I'm X except that it's possible to be X.  To make 
probabilistic inferences you either need a lot of samples (other people) or you need 
somebody to hand you a likelihood function.


I think the problem with QTI is that QM doesn't guarantee another experience of any 
quality.  It may guarantee that something happens, but the experience may the experience 
of being a bunch of loosely related molecules.  Craig likes to talk about 'sense' which 
when pressed it attributes to everything.  Experience may be like that; everything has 
'experience', it's just not human experience and when you stop having human experience 
you're dead.


Brent

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Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread LizR
it's like when there actually are rising temperatures and rising sea levels
and rising  O2 and increasingly wild weather and ice melting all over the
world, you stop and say, oh hang on, maybe Fourier had a point after all
when he worked out the Greenhouse effect in 1824. Rather than just putting
your fingers in your ears, closing your eyes and singing loudly.


On 12 November 2013 16:43, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote:


 On 11 Nov 2013, at 18:49, spudboy...@aol.com wrote:

 A Grand Council of Truth?



 Certainly not. Honesty is not knowing truth. It is just being able to
 correct oneself when being shown wrong. It is very simple, if they were not
 jealousy, vanity, pride, and things like that.



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Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread Bruno Marchal


On 11 Nov 2013, at 19:34, meekerdb wrote:


On 11/11/2013 12:13 AM, Bruno Marchal wrote:


On 10 Nov 2013, at 05:52, meekerdb wrote:



3. What do you recommend if the US refuses to comply?


?? You mean the U.S. government refuses to act in the best  
interests of it's citizens: Vote them out.


We could have meant that the US government fake to comply. Once a  
government lie, and the press is no more free, you might miss the  
data to vote them out.


In the health politics, many governments refuse to act in the  
interests of its citizens, since a long time, but very few citizens  
realize this, because they are kept uninformed.


And so they think their interests are different than what you think  
they are.  But that's different.   In a democracy you want the  
government to act according the interests people hold, not what  
someone else thinks their interests should be.  This is why a  
democracy only works well with an educated populace.  But educated  
is a relative term.  The world and technology becomes more complex  
and what you can really be educated in becomes a smaller and smaller  
fraction.  In many things you have to rely on experts.  But in spite  
of this, democracy still seems better than the alternatives.



Yes, I agree that democracy is better.
What is even better: democracy without bandits having got the power.  
In the case of health there has been and still exist a tradition of  
deliberate persistant desinformation.
Prohibition is a democracy killer. That was well understood by the  
founders of America.


Bruno

http://iridia.ulb.ac.be/~marchal/



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RE: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread Chris de Morsella
 

 

From: everything-list@googlegroups.com
[mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of LizR
Sent: Monday, November 11, 2013 7:47 PM
To: everything-list@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

 

 it's like when there actually are rising temperatures and rising sea
levels and rising  O2 and increasingly wild weather and ice melting all over
the world, you stop and say, oh hang on, maybe Fourier had a point after all
when he worked out the Greenhouse effect in 1824. Rather than just putting
your fingers in your ears, closing your eyes and singing loudly.

 

Perhaps. because some truths are too much for some to bear and illusion is
necessary for them to keep themselves from losing it.

 

Obligatory Matrix quote J

Morpheus: This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back.
You take the blue pill - the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe
whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill - you stay in Wonderland
and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes.

 

On 12 November 2013 16:43, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote:

 

On 11 Nov 2013, at 18:49, spudboy...@aol.com wrote:





A Grand Council of Truth? 

 

 

Certainly not. Honesty is not knowing truth. It is just being able to
correct oneself when being shown wrong. It is very simple, if they were not
jealousy, vanity, pride, and things like that.

 

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RE: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread Chris de Morsella
 

 

From: everything-list@googlegroups.com
[mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Bruno Marchal
Sent: Monday, November 11, 2013 7:43 PM
To: everything-list@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

 

 

On 11 Nov 2013, at 18:49, spudboy...@aol.com wrote:





A Grand Council of Truth? 

 

 

Certainly not. Honesty is not knowing truth. It is just being able to
correct oneself when being shown wrong. It is very simple, if they were not
jealousy, vanity, pride, and things like that.

 

Good point. but we are wrapped up in these other emotions and often driven
by them, some more than others for sure, but all of us - if we are honest
with ourselves -- to some degree on some occasions (no shame  no blame) We
are so wrapped up in all of this that it drives us to hotly deny that
anything of the sort could possibly be so; we cannot even begin admitting to
it. Naturally there is a whole range of personality types along the
spectrum; perhaps some humans have transcended it all. they say Buddha did,
but the rest of us to one degree or another suffer from our own blind
failings.

It is a struggle within sometimes to not fall into these all too easy to
fall into habits and their blind unthinking way of supplying the mind with
readymade answers. This very quick, but unthinking mechanism makes sense in
a field survival situation, where there is no time for thought to slow down
response. Just some cardinal trigger and there is an immediate amplification
of the signal in the brain and an immediate zoom to the fore of our minds.
Often, especially in situations, such as can develop on internet discussion
groups, primitive instincts take over - I have seen it, so have you, so has
everyone here. Passion can drive instinctive behavioral modes to the fore.
Re-learning the inner being living inside the mind is rather much a lifelong
pursuit - for after all we are a moving target, and if we do not keep a
certain vigilance we all risk falling into habitual modes of mind.

 

 





And, you already know where I am going with this. One night, while dining at
a restaurant, a good one, the High Reasoner, meets with an old friend to
discuss the new FIFA rules issued for the World Cup. The friend slides over
a closed sports magazine. Have a look at this article in the middle, here.
Inside the magazine is a rather thick envelope.

-Original Message-
From: Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be
To: everything-list everything-list@googlegroups.com
Sent: Mon, Nov 11, 2013 3:06 am
Subject: Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

 

On 11 Nov 2013, at 01:27, spudboy...@aol.com wrote:





Ok, but this is a technique for priming the intellectual pump. If it
produces nothing good, nothing powerful, then this method would be a
complete failure. 

 

It seems to me that this works very well, as long as the society is below
some level of corruption, in which case you can be misinfoirmed, and by not
knowing it and being honest, you spread the lies and this leads to problem
soon or later. Problems comes from the liars, but also from the people who
have been lied. It is very often hard to delineate them.

 

Bruno

 

 

 





-Original Message-
From: Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be
To: everything-list everything-list@googlegroups.com
Sent: Sun, Nov 10, 2013 2:49 pm
Subject: Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

 

On 09 Nov 2013, at 19:09, spudboy...@aol.com wrote:





I am emphasizing having governments print out (Keynes style) absolutely,
colossal, amounts of cash, as a reward for coming up with excellent disease
treatments and cures, human solar system tours, and clean energy solution,
environmental remediation. If the banks won't fund researchers, then private
equity will, if private equity won't then a million contributors-open
source-will, provided they get a cut of the reward offered by a government
prize. I wouldn't be shocked if you, Professor, Marchal, might summon up 25
ECU's in exchange for receiving 3000 ECU's or Golden Yuans, in payment, 5
years later.  

 

 

Only if this reflects some honest contracts.

 

Honesty is not just moral, it is something which elevates a lot the real
value of money. It generates trust. 

 

Be honest. 

If you don't try to be honest for the calm of your conscience, do it for the
wealth of your children.

 

Today big corporations are based on lies. That's the problem.

 

Bruno

 

 

 

http://iridia.ulb.ac.be/~marchal/

 

 

 

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Re: Our Demon-Haunted World

2013-11-11 Thread LizR
On 12 November 2013 17:47, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com wrote:

 Morpheus: This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back.
 You take the blue pill - the story ends, you wake up in your bed and
 believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill - you stay in
 Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes.


:D

Personally I don't think anyone knows how deep the rabbit hole goes.

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