Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
Quinine can be dangerous: https://www.peoplespharmacy.com/articles/is-quinine-in-tonic-water-safe .. MG via Mercedes wrote: > It still comes in glass bottles? All I've looked > at in the stores are in plastic. In any case your > method will probably work quite well, unless you > don't want to buy a bottle just to find out. > > MG > > Craig via Mercedes wrote: > > On Fri, 20 Mar 2020 11:55:36 -0500 MG via Mercedes > > wrote: > > > >> If it says 'contains quinine' on the bottle then > >> it should. If I remember right quinine fluoresces > >> under UV light so you could hit it with your AC > >> leak detector light and see what happens > > > > But you cannot aim the light at the bottle and see -- glass absorbs UV -- > > you have to pour some out and aim the light directly at the liquid. > > > > > > Craig > > > > ___ > > http://www.okiebenz.com > > > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > > > > > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > -- arche...@embarqmail.com ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
On Fri, 20 Mar 2020 11:58:23 -0500 MG via Mercedes wrote: > It still comes in glass bottles? All I've looked > at in the stores are in plastic. In any case your > method will probably work quite well, unless you > don't want to buy a bottle just to find out. Sorry, I presumed it came in glass bottles, since I have never bought any. Plastic also absorbs UV, so my statement below is still accurate. Craig > Craig via Mercedes wrote: > > On Fri, 20 Mar 2020 11:55:36 -0500 MG via Mercedes > > wrote: > > > >> If it says 'contains quinine' on the bottle then > >> it should. If I remember right quinine fluoresces > >> under UV light so you could hit it with your AC > >> leak detector light and see what happens > > > > But you cannot aim the light at the bottle and see -- glass absorbs > > UV -- you have to pour some out and aim the light directly at the > > liquid. ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
I wonder -is there "quinine flavoring" that subverts this proposed remedy? On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 12:59 PM MG via Mercedes wrote: > It still comes in glass bottles? All I've looked > at in the stores are in plastic. In any case your > method will probably work quite well, unless you > don't want to buy a bottle just to find out. > > MG > > Craig via Mercedes wrote: > > On Fri, 20 Mar 2020 11:55:36 -0500 MG via Mercedes > > wrote: > > > >> If it says 'contains quinine' on the bottle then > >> it should. If I remember right quinine fluoresces > >> under UV light so you could hit it with your AC > >> leak detector light and see what happens > > > > But you cannot aim the light at the bottle and see -- glass absorbs UV -- > > you have to pour some out and aim the light directly at the liquid. > > > > > > Craig > > > > ___ > > http://www.okiebenz.com > > > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > > > > > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
It still comes in glass bottles? All I've looked at in the stores are in plastic. In any case your method will probably work quite well, unless you don't want to buy a bottle just to find out. MG Craig via Mercedes wrote: On Fri, 20 Mar 2020 11:55:36 -0500 MG via Mercedes wrote: If it says 'contains quinine' on the bottle then it should. If I remember right quinine fluoresces under UV light so you could hit it with your AC leak detector light and see what happens But you cannot aim the light at the bottle and see -- glass absorbs UV -- you have to pour some out and aim the light directly at the liquid. Craig ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
On Fri, 20 Mar 2020 11:55:36 -0500 MG via Mercedes wrote: > If it says 'contains quinine' on the bottle then > it should. If I remember right quinine fluoresces > under UV light so you could hit it with your AC > leak detector light and see what happens But you cannot aim the light at the bottle and see -- glass absorbs UV -- you have to pour some out and aim the light directly at the liquid. Craig ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
If it says 'contains quinine' on the bottle then it should. If I remember right quinine fluoresces under UV light so you could hit it with your AC leak detector light and see what happens MG. Clay via Mercedes wrote: So, I should increase intake of Gin and Tonic? I wonder if Schweppes still uses original recipe in their tonic clay On Mar 19, 2020, at 5:16 PM, archer75--- via Mercedes wrote: If chloroquine does prove to be the magic bullet that controls the coronavirus epidemic, it will be a remarkable coincidence since the organism it has been killing for 70+ years; a protzoan; is completely unrelated to the virus that causes coronavirus infection. That's based on current knowledge, but there may be biochemical similarities that explain it. The protozoan is easily seen via a clinical microscope such as below: ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
Assuming a person has a normal immune system, a person should be immune for a period of months. This supposition is based on the nature of somewhat similar virus diseases. A university prof virologist, says the difficulty of making assumptions about this virus is that it has the characteristics of 3 different viruses. Given more time, more will be known, and treatment will hopefully be more effective. OK Don wrote: > Umm - immunity to the common cold, another corona virus, doesn't work. > There's no real reason to think that this corona virus will let you build > immunity to it either. All it has to do is morph, change, evolve a bit, and > off it goes. > > On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 11:35 PM archer75--- via Mercedes < > mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > > > Worldwide we should already be building up a population of cured and > > immune workers who can go back to work in perfect safety and gradually get > > cities and towns back on a functional basis; the first item being the > > restoration of the medical system to the point where both coronavirus > > patients, and ordinary patients, can be treated effectively. > > > -- > OK Don > > "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to > pause and reflect." Mark Twain > > "There are three kinds of men: The ones that learns by reading. The few who > learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence > for themselves." > > WILL ROGERS, *The Manly Wisdom of Will Rogers* > 2013 F150, 18 mpg > 2017 Subaru Legacy, 30 mpg > 1957 C182A, 12 mpg - but at 150 mph! > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > -- arche...@embarqmail.com ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
No, gin and hydroxychloroquine. Gerry > So, I should increase intake of Gin and Tonic? > > I wonder if Schweppes still uses original recipe in their tonic > > clay > > > On Mar 19, 2020, at 5:16 PM, archer75--- via Mercedes > > wrote: > > > > If chloroquine does prove to be the magic bullet that controls the > > coronavirus epidemic, it will be a remarkable coincidence since the > > organism it has been killing for 70+ years; a protzoan; is completely > > unrelated to the virus that causes coronavirus infection. That's based on > > current knowledge, but there may be biochemical similarities that explain > > it. The protozoan is easily seen via a clinical microscope such as below: > > > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > -- arche...@embarqmail.com ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
Umm - immunity to the common cold, another corona virus, doesn't work. There's no real reason to think that this corona virus will let you build immunity to it either. All it has to do is morph, change, evolve a bit, and off it goes. On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 11:35 PM archer75--- via Mercedes < mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > Worldwide we should already be building up a population of cured and > immune workers who can go back to work in perfect safety and gradually get > cities and towns back on a functional basis; the first item being the > restoration of the medical system to the point where both coronavirus > patients, and ordinary patients, can be treated effectively. > -- OK Don "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect." Mark Twain "There are three kinds of men: The ones that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves." WILL ROGERS, *The Manly Wisdom of Will Rogers* 2013 F150, 18 mpg 2017 Subaru Legacy, 30 mpg 1957 C182A, 12 mpg - but at 150 mph! ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
Worldwide we should already be building up a population of cured and immune workers who can go back to work in perfect safety and gradually get cities and towns back on a functional basis; the first item being the restoration of the medical system to the point where both coronavirus patients, and ordinary patients, can be treated effectively. .. Clay via Mercedes wrote: > Because the press is overly fond of sharing the data, I am able to keep track > of the hotbed of US infection on an hourly basis, even though I no longer > live in WA. Latest figure had 74 deaths out of 1376 confirmed infected. > That seems consistent with the figure stated below. There was a 10% fatality > in the beginning, but has been falling toward a 5.5% kill ratio since. > > Alaska is setting up regulations governing behaviour of those entering the > state from outside. The college kids being repatriated, if they come from an > area of contagion, will have to isolate for at least 14 days, not attend > events outside their homes, use public transport, or come in contact with > others outside their homes. > > Meanwhile, eateries are no longer able to serve food unless it is delivery or > pick up. Employment in that sector (including bars) has fallen to 10% of > former staffing levels. Hope is that this only lasts until April 1. Cruise > ships will not arrive until July, which is a massive hit to the employment > where boats disgorged visitors. Expectations were for an increase in > revenues of up to 40% in 2020 from tourism. The oil fields are packing up > due to the decrease in oil prices. Todays. price for a barrel was $22.43, > down from the expected/budgeted $69 at the beginning of the year. Larger > companies are idling rigs and dropping capital investment by approx. 25%. > News this morning was some $280 million of the expected $1.8bn was leaving > the table, with other firms not yet reporting their coming cuts. > > All the applaud for government handouts is silly, as somebody (you and I, the > tax payers) will be footing the bill. Better that we were able to keep on > interacting with business to keep the economy flowing, and allow the creation > of jobs related to any deaths that take place. More grave digger jobs, more > flower arrangements and florist delivery, more hallmark cards, janitorial > positions, and the sports and entertainment sector, as well as travel could > just keep chugging along. > > I did enjoy the dissonance of the CBC stories about closing down businesses, > rousting kids from college dorms at Concordia in Montreal, shutting the > border to non Canadians, and the story of the need to import 16k agricultural > workers from Mexico to keep food growing and produce sections viable. As if > wetbacks are immune to the flu. Just wait until tamale munchers start > dropping dead off their burros. > > clay > > > On Mar 18, 2020, at 6:55 PM, Peter Frederick via Mercedes > > wrote: > > > > More to the point, how many people will need hospitalization to survive, > > and for how long. Doctors in Italy are being forced to decide who gets > > life saving care already, and the case load is still climbing. > > > > At the current rate of increase in caseload in the US we will hit 1.5 > > million infections in about four weeks. 3.5% of that is 51,000 deaths and > > 200,000 or so people in the hospital for more than a week, possibly as many > > as 700,000. We don't have that many hospital beds. > > > > Death rate in Italy appears to be 4-5% as well > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > -- arche...@embarqmail.com ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
So, I should increase intake of Gin and Tonic? I wonder if Schweppes still uses original recipe in their tonic clay > On Mar 19, 2020, at 5:16 PM, archer75--- via Mercedes > wrote: > > If chloroquine does prove to be the magic bullet that controls the > coronavirus epidemic, it will be a remarkable coincidence since the organism > it has been killing for 70+ years; a protzoan; is completely unrelated to the > virus that causes coronavirus infection. That's based on current knowledge, > but there may be biochemical similarities that explain it. The protozoan is > easily seen via a clinical microscope such as below: ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
Because the press is overly fond of sharing the data, I am able to keep track of the hotbed of US infection on an hourly basis, even though I no longer live in WA. Latest figure had 74 deaths out of 1376 confirmed infected. That seems consistent with the figure stated below. There was a 10% fatality in the beginning, but has been falling toward a 5.5% kill ratio since. Alaska is setting up regulations governing behaviour of those entering the state from outside. The college kids being repatriated, if they come from an area of contagion, will have to isolate for at least 14 days, not attend events outside their homes, use public transport, or come in contact with others outside their homes. Meanwhile, eateries are no longer able to serve food unless it is delivery or pick up. Employment in that sector (including bars) has fallen to 10% of former staffing levels. Hope is that this only lasts until April 1. Cruise ships will not arrive until July, which is a massive hit to the employment where boats disgorged visitors. Expectations were for an increase in revenues of up to 40% in 2020 from tourism. The oil fields are packing up due to the decrease in oil prices. Todays. price for a barrel was $22.43, down from the expected/budgeted $69 at the beginning of the year. Larger companies are idling rigs and dropping capital investment by approx. 25%. News this morning was some $280 million of the expected $1.8bn was leaving the table, with other firms not yet reporting their coming cuts. All the applaud for government handouts is silly, as somebody (you and I, the tax payers) will be footing the bill. Better that we were able to keep on interacting with business to keep the economy flowing, and allow the creation of jobs related to any deaths that take place. More grave digger jobs, more flower arrangements and florist delivery, more hallmark cards, janitorial positions, and the sports and entertainment sector, as well as travel could just keep chugging along. I did enjoy the dissonance of the CBC stories about closing down businesses, rousting kids from college dorms at Concordia in Montreal, shutting the border to non Canadians, and the story of the need to import 16k agricultural workers from Mexico to keep food growing and produce sections viable. As if wetbacks are immune to the flu. Just wait until tamale munchers start dropping dead off their burros. clay > On Mar 18, 2020, at 6:55 PM, Peter Frederick via Mercedes > wrote: > > More to the point, how many people will need hospitalization to survive, and > for how long. Doctors in Italy are being forced to decide who gets life > saving care already, and the case load is still climbing. > > At the current rate of increase in caseload in the US we will hit 1.5 million > infections in about four weeks. 3.5% of that is 51,000 deaths and 200,000 or > so people in the hospital for more than a week, possibly as many as 700,000. > We don't have that many hospital beds. > > Death rate in Italy appears to be 4-5% as well ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
The Brits in India were on to something with the gin & tonic. I shall be practicing prophylaxis tomorrow evening. This isolation is tough but I’m going to try. --FT Sent from iPhone > On Mar 19, 2020, at 9:17 PM, archer75--- via Mercedes > wrote: > > If chloroquine does prove to be the magic bullet that controls the > coronavirus epidemic, it will be a remarkable coincidence since the organism > it has been killing for 70+ years; a protzoan; is completely unrelated to the > virus that causes coronavirus infection. That's based on current knowledge, > but there may be biochemical similarities that explain it. The protozoan is > easily seen via a clinical microscope such as below: > > https://search.yahoo.com/yhs/search;_ylt=AwrEeSS9CXRe2RUAIgsPxQt.;_ylc=X1MDMjExNDcwMDU1OQRfcgMyBGZyA3locy1pYmEtMQRncHJpZANSSW1nc1NLcVExeUFUckx0akZTWWtBBG5fcnNsdAMwBG5fc3VnZwMwBG9yaWdpbgNzZWFyY2gueWFob28uY29tBHBvcwMwBHBxc3RyAwRwcXN0cmwDMARxc3RybAM0NARxdWVyeQNtYWxhcmlhJTIwcHJvdG96b2ElMjBhcmUlMjB2aXNpYmxlJTIwbWljcm9zY29waWNhbGx5BHRfc3RtcAMxNTg0NjYzMjc0?p=malaria+protozoa+are+visible+microscopically&fr2=sb-top&hspart=iba&hsimp=yhs-1¶m3=InsieWlkIjoiZ3lmZiIsImN0YWciOiI4NzgzIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6IjEuMC4wIn0i&vm=r&type=gyff_8783_FFW_US > > An Australian lab has discovered a unique cell that appears in the > bloodstream when a person is infected with the coronavirus, and disappears as > the patient improves. IMHO this could be a way of diagnosing the coronavirus > disease if no diagnostic kits are available. It could probably be done while > the patient waits if there are no special staining or incubating requirements. > > https://search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?hspart=iba&vm=r&hsimp=yhs-1&type=gyff_8783_FFW_US&p=unique+cell+appears+in+bloodstream+of+coronavirus+patients¶m3=InsieWlkIjoiZ3lmZiIsImN0YWciOiI4NzgzIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6IjEuMC4wIn0i > > Curley wrote: > >> I heard that on the radio today. THey said countries where Malaria is >> rampant, and Chloroquine is widely used, there is no or almost no wuhan >> virus. >> Rick Knoble via Mercedes wrote on 3/19/20 11:51 AM: >>> Chloroquine is being expedited as a treatment. It has worked in South >>> Korea, and France. There is another anti malaria drug, but I don't recall >>> the name. These can also be taken as a prophylaxis for those are highest >>> risk. Home run. Possibly a grand slam. >>> >>> Rick > > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
If chloroquine does prove to be the magic bullet that controls the coronavirus epidemic, it will be a remarkable coincidence since the organism it has been killing for 70+ years; a protzoan; is completely unrelated to the virus that causes coronavirus infection. That's based on current knowledge, but there may be biochemical similarities that explain it. The protozoan is easily seen via a clinical microscope such as below: https://search.yahoo.com/yhs/search;_ylt=AwrEeSS9CXRe2RUAIgsPxQt.;_ylc=X1MDMjExNDcwMDU1OQRfcgMyBGZyA3locy1pYmEtMQRncHJpZANSSW1nc1NLcVExeUFUckx0akZTWWtBBG5fcnNsdAMwBG5fc3VnZwMwBG9yaWdpbgNzZWFyY2gueWFob28uY29tBHBvcwMwBHBxc3RyAwRwcXN0cmwDMARxc3RybAM0NARxdWVyeQNtYWxhcmlhJTIwcHJvdG96b2ElMjBhcmUlMjB2aXNpYmxlJTIwbWljcm9zY29waWNhbGx5BHRfc3RtcAMxNTg0NjYzMjc0?p=malaria+protozoa+are+visible+microscopically&fr2=sb-top&hspart=iba&hsimp=yhs-1¶m3=InsieWlkIjoiZ3lmZiIsImN0YWciOiI4NzgzIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6IjEuMC4wIn0i&vm=r&type=gyff_8783_FFW_US An Australian lab has discovered a unique cell that appears in the bloodstream when a person is infected with the coronavirus, and disappears as the patient improves. IMHO this could be a way of diagnosing the coronavirus disease if no diagnostic kits are available. It could probably be done while the patient waits if there are no special staining or incubating requirements. https://search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?hspart=iba&vm=r&hsimp=yhs-1&type=gyff_8783_FFW_US&p=unique+cell+appears+in+bloodstream+of+coronavirus+patients¶m3=InsieWlkIjoiZ3lmZiIsImN0YWciOiI4NzgzIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6IjEuMC4wIn0i Curley wrote: > I heard that on the radio today. THey said countries where Malaria is > rampant, and Chloroquine is widely used, there is no or almost no wuhan > virus. > Rick Knoble via Mercedes wrote on 3/19/20 11:51 AM: > > Chloroquine is being expedited as a treatment. It has worked in South > > Korea, and France. There is another anti malaria drug, but I don't recall > > the name. These can also be taken as a prophylaxis for those are highest > > risk. Home run. Possibly a grand slam. > > > > Rick ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
I heard that on the radio today. THey said countries where Malaria is rampant, and Chloroquine is widely used, there is no or almost no wuhan virus. Rick Knoble via Mercedes wrote on 3/19/20 11:51 AM: Chloroquine is being expedited as a treatment. It has worked in South Korea, and France. There is another anti malaria drug, but I don't recall the name. These can also be taken as a prophylaxis for those are highest risk. Home run. Possibly a grand slam. Rick ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
The boy told me his hospital folks developed their own testing stuff a week or two ago and it was better --FT On 3/19/20 2:02 PM, Curt Raymond via Mercedes wrote: Oh man, last night I read up on the poop show that was the CDC on testing. When this is all done theres gonna be people at the CDC that will have some 'splaining to do.10 days they sat on failed test kits "We'll work it out." finally private labs worked it out once it was clear the CDC never would. -Curt On Wednesday, March 18, 2020, 11:29:31 PM EDT, Peter Frederick via Mercedes wrote: Well, if we had used the WHO test for the novel coronavirus (Like South Korea did) when it was offered to us in late January we likely could have prevented the vast majority of the cases we have now because we could have actually tracked exposure. WHO is far from perfect, but so is the Senate. ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com . -- --FT ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
If the entire world is sitting at 170,000 cases right now I find it extraordinarily unlikely that the US alone will have 10x that number in 4 weeks. Especially with China already over the hump and having seen zero new cases yesterday. Yes I assume the Chinese are either lying about no new cases or they've stopped testing new people but I do expect that they're over the hump and cases are declining... -Curt On Wednesday, March 18, 2020, 10:56:17 PM EDT, Peter Frederick via Mercedes wrote: More to the point, how many people will need hospitalization to survive, and for how long. Doctors in Italy are being forced to decide who gets life saving care already, and the case load is still climbing. At the current rate of increase in caseload in the US we will hit 1.5 million infections in about four weeks. 3.5% of that is 51,000 deaths and 200,000 or so people in the hospital for more than a week, possibly as many as 700,000. We don't have that many hospital beds. Death rate in Italy appears to be 4-5% as well ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
I've basically stopped listening to any "I heard" because its probably all rubbish.Mild symptoms don't result in lung damage, that doesn't pass the sniff test. If there was lung damage, especially if it was permanent, the symptoms wouldn't be mild. -Curt On Thursday, March 19, 2020, 2:41:35 AM EDT, Scott Ritchey via Mercedes wrote: The key question is 4-5% of what? The total population? The number of estimated cases? The number that tested positive? The number sick enough to be hospitalized? I also heard that some young/healthy folks infected but with minimal symptoms suffered (permanent? long term?)lung damage. > -Original Message- > From: Peter Frederick via Mercedes ... > Death rate in Italy appears to be 4-5% as well ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
Smoking is quite prevalent in China also. Meade Dillon via Mercedes writes: > Italy has an older population than the US and much older than South > Korea, and apparently they stay skinny by smoking, there is your > explanation for a higher death rate there. > - > Max > Charleston SC ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
Oh man, last night I read up on the poop show that was the CDC on testing. When this is all done theres gonna be people at the CDC that will have some 'splaining to do.10 days they sat on failed test kits "We'll work it out." finally private labs worked it out once it was clear the CDC never would. -Curt On Wednesday, March 18, 2020, 11:29:31 PM EDT, Peter Frederick via Mercedes wrote: Well, if we had used the WHO test for the novel coronavirus (Like South Korea did) when it was offered to us in late January we likely could have prevented the vast majority of the cases we have now because we could have actually tracked exposure. WHO is far from perfect, but so is the Senate. ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
Its also kind of a Faustian bargain too. If we "protect" ourselves this way but destroy our economy whats the point? You'll be alive but have no money for food or housing... -Curt On Wednesday, March 18, 2020, 11:19:19 PM EDT, Curley McLain via Mercedes wrote: right. and the theory is that by having people try to be hermits, we can lower the peak numbers and spread the hopital load out over a longer time. Sounds good on paper. We are old enough to remember when we DID have a lot more hospital beds. Hospitals were closed and torn down or converted to other use "Because we don't need so many beds" in the 80s and 90s. Many towns lost their only hospital. Like everything else, need for hospital beds is cyclical. The regular flu is cyclical. the death numbers go up over 100% and the next year may be only 50% of the peak year. But lying with statistics is still lying. We need to cut funding to UN and its offspring WHO. The USA can stand on out own. Peter Frederick via Mercedes wrote on 3/18/20 9:55 PM: > More to the point, how many people will need hospitalization to survive, and > for how long. Doctors in Italy are being forced to decide who gets life > saving care already, and the case load is still climbing. > > At the current rate of increase in caseload in the US we will hit 1.5 million > infections in about four weeks. 3.5% of that is 51,000 deaths and 200,000 or > so people in the hospital for more than a week, possibly as many as 700,000. > We don't have that many hospital beds. > > Death rate in Italy appears to be 4-5% as well > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
Oh please. I never heard Trump complain about the lack of attention to a possible pandemic in January. On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:38 PM Dimitri Seretakis via Mercedes < mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > Right and in January Congress was too busy impeaching the president rather > than legislating. I can’t image that helped the situation. > > Sent from my iPhone > > > On Mar 19, 2020, at 8:08 AM, Meade Dillon via Mercedes < > mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > > > > I think that the law / regulations set in place by Congress prevented us > > from using any test developed by private industry or outside the US, back > > in January. Hindsight is 20-20. > > > > Remember that in mid-January, WHO was parroting the CHICOM lie that this > > virus was not able to be transmitted from human to human. > > > > > https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/18/flashback-who-china-coronavirus-contagious/ > > > > - > > Max > > Charleston SC > > > > > >> On Wed, Mar 18, 2020 at 11:29 PM Peter Frederick via Mercedes < > >> mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > >> > >> Well, if we had used the WHO test for the novel coronavirus (Like South > >> Korea did) when it was offered to us in late January we likely could > have > >> prevented the vast majority of the cases we have now because we could > have > >> actually tracked exposure. > >> > >> WHO is far from perfect, but so is the Senate. > >> > >> > >> > >> ___ > >> http://www.okiebenz.com > >> > >> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > >> > >> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > >> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > >> > >> > > ___ > > http://www.okiebenz.com > > > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > > > > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
Right and in January Congress was too busy impeaching the president rather than legislating. I can’t image that helped the situation. Sent from my iPhone > On Mar 19, 2020, at 8:08 AM, Meade Dillon via Mercedes > wrote: > > I think that the law / regulations set in place by Congress prevented us > from using any test developed by private industry or outside the US, back > in January. Hindsight is 20-20. > > Remember that in mid-January, WHO was parroting the CHICOM lie that this > virus was not able to be transmitted from human to human. > > https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/18/flashback-who-china-coronavirus-contagious/ > > - > Max > Charleston SC > > >> On Wed, Mar 18, 2020 at 11:29 PM Peter Frederick via Mercedes < >> mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: >> >> Well, if we had used the WHO test for the novel coronavirus (Like South >> Korea did) when it was offered to us in late January we likely could have >> prevented the vast majority of the cases we have now because we could have >> actually tracked exposure. >> >> WHO is far from perfect, but so is the Senate. >> >> >> >> ___ >> http://www.okiebenz.com >> >> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ >> >> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: >> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com >> >> > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
Chloroquine is being expedited as a treatment. It has worked in South Korea, and France. There is another anti malaria drug, but I don't recall the name. These can also be taken as a prophylaxis for those are highest risk. Home run. Possibly a grand slam. Rick ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
The WHO test was never offered to us. "No discussions occurred between WHO and CDC about WHO providing COVID-19 tests to the United States," said WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris. "This is consistent with experience since the United States does not ordinarily rely on WHO for reagents or diagnostic tests because of sufficient domestic capacity." Allan Peter Frederick via Mercedes writes: > Well, if we had used the WHO test for the novel coronavirus (Like South Korea > did) when it was offered to us in late January we likely could have prevented > the vast majority of the cases we have now because we could have actually > tracked exposure. > > WHO is far from perfect, but so is the Senate. > > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
Forgot to add that in China, ~82,000 cases, ~3300 deaths. - Max Charleston SC On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 8:32 AM Meade Dillon wrote: > Then and now: > > H1N1: From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, a study estimated that > approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 > hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) > occurred in the United States due to pH1N1. > > COVID-19 As of today: ~9400 cases, ~150 deaths. > > Plain Old Flu as killed ~20,000 Americans this season, estimated to top > out around 30,000. > > Draw your own conclusions. > - > Max > Charleston SC > > > > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
Then and now: H1N1: From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, a study estimated that approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) occurred in the United States due to pH1N1. COVID-19 As of today: ~9400 cases, ~150 deaths. Plain Old Flu as killed ~20,000 Americans this season, estimated to top out around 30,000. Draw your own conclusions. - Max Charleston SC ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
WHO is as believable as the chicoms. Meade Dillon via Mercedes wrote on 3/19/20 7:07 AM: I think that the law / regulations set in place by Congress prevented us from using any test developed by private industry or outside the US, back in January. Hindsight is 20-20. Remember that in mid-January, WHO was parroting the CHICOM lie that this virus was not able to be transmitted from human to human. https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/18/flashback-who-china-coronavirus-contagious/ - Max Charleston SC WHO was telling us 20 years ago that in 20 years we'd all be dead. ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
CHICOMS ARE SAYING YOUNG healthy people who have been later scanned (Did not say ct or mri) show 20% permanent lung damage. no confirmation from other areas. I don't see any reason why they would lie about this, but who knows. They lie about everything else. Peter Frederick via Mercedes wrote on 3/19/20 6:11 AM: 4-5% of those infected, so far as the available data goes. May be lower due to lack of complete screening and the fact that infections can be mild enough they don't get reported. Given that Itailians are in general a little healthier than US citizens (lower BMI, more exercise, etc) and those things have an effect on mortality, the death rate in the US may or may not be higher than Italy. China and S. Korea show very low death rates for young people, but it appears that the numbers are higher in Italy (so are total death rates). Have not heard of the permanent lung damage, but I'd not be surprised. Makes sense that poor condition or underlying health issues cause higher death rates if significant lung damage occurs. ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
I think that the law / regulations set in place by Congress prevented us from using any test developed by private industry or outside the US, back in January. Hindsight is 20-20. Remember that in mid-January, WHO was parroting the CHICOM lie that this virus was not able to be transmitted from human to human. https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/18/flashback-who-china-coronavirus-contagious/ - Max Charleston SC On Wed, Mar 18, 2020 at 11:29 PM Peter Frederick via Mercedes < mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > Well, if we had used the WHO test for the novel coronavirus (Like South > Korea did) when it was offered to us in late January we likely could have > prevented the vast majority of the cases we have now because we could have > actually tracked exposure. > > WHO is far from perfect, but so is the Senate. > > > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
Italy has an older population than the US and much older than South Korea, and apparently they stay skinny by smoking, there is your explanation for a higher death rate there. - Max Charleston SC On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 7:12 AM Peter Frederick via Mercedes < mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > 4-5% of those infected, so far as the available data goes. May be lower > due to lack of complete screening and the fact that infections can be mild > enough they don't get reported. Given that Itailians are in general a > little healthier than US citizens (lower BMI, more exercise, etc) and those > things have an effect on mortality, the death rate in the US may or may not > be higher than Italy. > > > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
4-5% of those infected, so far as the available data goes. May be lower due to lack of complete screening and the fact that infections can be mild enough they don't get reported. Given that Itailians are in general a little healthier than US citizens (lower BMI, more exercise, etc) and those things have an effect on mortality, the death rate in the US may or may not be higher than Italy. China and S. Korea show very low death rates for young people, but it appears that the numbers are higher in Italy (so are total death rates). Have not heard of the permanent lung damage, but I'd not be surprised. Makes sense that poor condition or underlying health issues cause higher death rates if significant lung damage occurs. ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
The key question is 4-5% of what? The total population? The number of estimated cases? The number that tested positive? The number sick enough to be hospitalized? I also heard that some young/healthy folks infected but with minimal symptoms suffered (permanent? long term?)lung damage. > -Original Message- > From: Peter Frederick via Mercedes ... > Death rate in Italy appears to be 4-5% as well ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
Well, if we had used the WHO test for the novel coronavirus (Like South Korea did) when it was offered to us in late January we likely could have prevented the vast majority of the cases we have now because we could have actually tracked exposure. WHO is far from perfect, but so is the Senate. ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
right. and the theory is that by having people try to be hermits, we can lower the peak numbers and spread the hopital load out over a longer time. Sounds good on paper. We are old enough to remember when we DID have a lot more hospital beds. Hospitals were closed and torn down or converted to other use "Because we don't need so many beds" in the 80s and 90s. Many towns lost their only hospital. Like everything else, need for hospital beds is cyclical. The regular flu is cyclical. the death numbers go up over 100% and the next year may be only 50% of the peak year. But lying with statistics is still lying. We need to cut funding to UN and its offspring WHO. The USA can stand on out own. Peter Frederick via Mercedes wrote on 3/18/20 9:55 PM: More to the point, how many people will need hospitalization to survive, and for how long. Doctors in Italy are being forced to decide who gets life saving care already, and the case load is still climbing. At the current rate of increase in caseload in the US we will hit 1.5 million infections in about four weeks. 3.5% of that is 51,000 deaths and 200,000 or so people in the hospital for more than a week, possibly as many as 700,000. We don't have that many hospital beds. Death rate in Italy appears to be 4-5% as well ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
More to the point, how many people will need hospitalization to survive, and for how long. Doctors in Italy are being forced to decide who gets life saving care already, and the case load is still climbing. At the current rate of increase in caseload in the US we will hit 1.5 million infections in about four weeks. 3.5% of that is 51,000 deaths and 200,000 or so people in the hospital for more than a week, possibly as many as 700,000. We don't have that many hospital beds. Death rate in Italy appears to be 4-5% as well ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
The major point of difference is that millions have resistance through their flu shots, whereas zero are protected against COVID 19. If there were no flu vaccine how many deaths would there be? On Wed, Mar 18, 2020 at 10:35 PM Curley McLain via Mercedes < mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > I am not discounting the potential severity of the wuhan flu. At > the same time there is considerable evidence that the media has over > hyped the danger. The article below is an illustration of how to > lie with statistics.You don't even need to buy Mr. Huff's little > book. > > The controversial Ethiopian politician and Director General of the > World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, claimed > in a press conference in early March that the fatality rate for the > coronavirus was many multiples that of the fatality rate of the > common flu. > > This egregiously false premise has led to the greatest panic in > world history. > > The Director General of the WHO spoke on March 3, 2020 and shared > this related to the coronavirus: > > While many people globally have built up immunity to seasonal flu > strains, COVID-19 is a new virus to which no one has immunity. That > means more people are susceptible to infection, and some will suffer > severe disease. > > Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By > comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those > infected. > > This statement led to the greatest panic in world history as the > media all over the world shared and repeated that the coronavirus > was many, many times more deadly than the common flu. > > The problem is his statement is false. It was not accurate! > > The Gateway Pundit reported yesterday, that the coronavirus fatality > rate reported by the media was completely inaccurate and the actual > rate is less than the current seasonal flu – the media was lying > again. The false reporting of the coronavirus fatality rate of 3.4% > in the media started with the statements made by the WHO in early > March. > > Take a look at this recent summary that actually proves the Director > General’s statement was materially false, though you’ll not hear > mainstream media talking about this at all: > > *1. The fatality rate of the coronavirus was based on current data > available of known positive cases and known deaths.* > > Oftentimes estimates have to be made because data is just not yet > available. The Director General of the World Health Organization > (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, used the fatality rate of > coronavirus with known numbers and used this as his prediction of > eventual mortality rate. This was a faulty assumption. Estimates > usually involve obtaining information that is available and making > estimates on what is not. We cannot tell the future but we can make > educated guesses based on information available. This is what has > been done with the coronavirus because this type of virus has > apparently never been seen before. > > *2. Sometimes estimates are reasonable and sometimes they are wrong, > and even way off.* > > The point is that whenever estimates are made of large unknown > values they are always wrong because no one can tell the future. > Sometimes estimates end up close and sometimes they are not and > sometimes they are way off. > > This is a factor that simply cannot be overstated. There was a massive > lack of information available at the time when this whole situation > kicked off. People seem to take every single thing reported by the WHO > as the absolute, accurate truth without taking other factors into > consideration. > > *3. The current “estimate” for the coronavirus fatality rate > according to the WHO is about 3.4%.* > > The estimate used most often is from the WHO based on the Director > General’s comments. The WHO estimates the mortality rate of the > coronavirus to be around 3.4%: > > The World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated the mortality > rate from Covid-19 is about 3.4%. That is higher than seasonal > flu and is cause for concern – but even if it is correct, more > than 96% of people who become infected with the coronavirus will > recover. > > *4. The same rate for this year’s seasonal flu is 10% if you use > known cases and known deaths (but the media tells you it’s .1%).* > > As The Gateway Pundit reported earlier, according to CDC numbers, in > the US in the 2019-2020 flu season, there were 222,552 confirmed > cases of the flu from testing and an estimated 36 million flu cases > in the United States. There were 22,000 estimated deaths from the > flu (via the CDC). > > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives ht
[MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics
I am not discounting the potential severity of the wuhan flu. At the same time there is considerable evidence that the media has over hyped the danger. The article below is an illustration of how to lie with statistics. You don't even need to buy Mr. Huff's little book. The controversial Ethiopian politician and Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, claimed in a press conference in early March that the fatality rate for the coronavirus was many multiples that of the fatality rate of the common flu. This egregiously false premise has led to the greatest panic in world history. The Director General of the WHO spoke on March 3, 2020 and shared this related to the coronavirus: While many people globally have built up immunity to seasonal flu strains, COVID-19 is a new virus to which no one has immunity. That means more people are susceptible to infection, and some will suffer severe disease. Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected. This statement led to the greatest panic in world history as the media all over the world shared and repeated that the coronavirus was many, many times more deadly than the common flu. The problem is his statement is false. It was not accurate! The Gateway Pundit reported yesterday, that the coronavirus fatality rate reported by the media was completely inaccurate and the actual rate is less than the current seasonal flu – the media was lying again. The false reporting of the coronavirus fatality rate of 3.4% in the media started with the statements made by the WHO in early March. Take a look at this recent summary that actually proves the Director General’s statement was materially false, though you’ll not hear mainstream media talking about this at all: *1. The fatality rate of the coronavirus was based on current data available of known positive cases and known deaths.* Oftentimes estimates have to be made because data is just not yet available. The Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, used the fatality rate of coronavirus with known numbers and used this as his prediction of eventual mortality rate. This was a faulty assumption. Estimates usually involve obtaining information that is available and making estimates on what is not. We cannot tell the future but we can make educated guesses based on information available. This is what has been done with the coronavirus because this type of virus has apparently never been seen before. *2. Sometimes estimates are reasonable and sometimes they are wrong, and even way off.* The point is that whenever estimates are made of large unknown values they are always wrong because no one can tell the future. Sometimes estimates end up close and sometimes they are not and sometimes they are way off. This is a factor that simply cannot be overstated. There was a massive lack of information available at the time when this whole situation kicked off. People seem to take every single thing reported by the WHO as the absolute, accurate truth without taking other factors into consideration. *3. The current “estimate” for the coronavirus fatality rate according to the WHO is about 3.4%.* The estimate used most often is from the WHO based on the Director General’s comments. The WHO estimates the mortality rate of the coronavirus to be around 3.4%: The World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated the mortality rate from Covid-19 is about 3.4%. That is higher than seasonal flu and is cause for concern – but even if it is correct, more than 96% of people who become infected with the coronavirus will recover. *4. The same rate for this year’s seasonal flu is 10% if you use known cases and known deaths (but the media tells you it’s .1%).* As The Gateway Pundit reported earlier, according to CDC numbers, in the US in the 2019-2020 flu season, there were 222,552 confirmed cases of the flu from testing and an estimated 36 million flu cases in the United States. There were 22,000 estimated deaths from the flu (via the CDC). ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com