Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

And to fill in 80% of the gaps read Jane Jacobs on N. Sys. econ. Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry -Original Message- From: David Mirly <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Date: Sun, 12 Aug 2007 13:45:25 To:The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Edge: Th

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

07 14:26:32 To:The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics On Aug 12, 2007, at 12:07 PM, Roger Critchlow wrote: > On 8/12/07, David Mirly <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >> 2) It would be wise to attempt to minimize our impacts o

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

54 To:"The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group" Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics On 8/12/07, David Mirly <[EMAIL PROTECTED] <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > wrote: 2) It would be wise to attempt to minimize our impacts on such a complex sy

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

lexity Coffee Group Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics I can't remember the source (sorry) but I do remember some "expert" saying that the problem isn't just that the climate is warming. We've already pointed out the the Earth has been much hotter than it

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

lexity Coffee Group Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics Interestingly enough, the two pernicious forms of growth are population, and energy intensity per capita. The only well-established way to halt population growth (that I know of) is economic development through industriali

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

Hywel, Do you deny the reality of climate change and global warming? Paul ** Get a sneak peek of the all-new AOL at http://discover.aol.com/memed/aolcom30tour FRIAM Applied Complexity Group list

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

The point I was trying to make, aside from being a heretic and stirring up a good discussion, was that climate change and global warming are scientifically realities. There is a question about how much CC/GW are anthropogenic. After reading all the UN docs (I am ex-UN), I personally belie

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

Interestingly enough, the two pernicious forms of growth are population, and energy intensity per capita. The only well-established way to halt population growth (that I know of) is economic development through industrialization. Which, to date, has meant greater energy intensity and more

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

In 1993, Paul Hawken wrote a good book on externalities titled "The Ecology of Commerce". I imagine most of the readers of this list already know of this book, but for those who don't it's a decent work. On Aug 12, 2007, at 1:26 PM, Owen Densmore wrote: > On Aug 12, 2007, at 12:07 PM, Roger

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

On Aug 12, 2007, at 12:07 PM, Roger Critchlow wrote: > On 8/12/07, David Mirly <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >> 2) It would be wise to attempt to minimize our impacts on such a >> complex system when we don't even partially understand the >> consequences. > > Just to beat on the defenders of the sta

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

11:33 PM > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics > > > On Aug 11, 2007, at 8:17 PM, Phil Henshaw wrote: > > > ... > > Of the three main energy sources, fossil, nuclear, and > competition for > &g

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

ECTED] On Behalf Of Robert Holmes Sent: Sunday, August 12, 2007 10:05 AM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics The Copenhagen Consensus is a Danish think-tank that gets economists and politicians to address the question "

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

.com <http://www.synapse9.com/> -Original Message- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Douglas Roberts Sent: Saturday, August 11, 2007 10:01 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics Ow

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

Paul, I'm afraid I agreed with him almost entirely. Hywel _ From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Saturday, August 11, 2007 1:49 PM To: friam@redfish.com Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics Certainly there is a

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

Complexity Coffee Group Subject: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics This from the Edge: Freeman Dyson talking about the need for heretics in science: <http://www.edge.org/documents/archive/edge219.html#dysonf> Interestingly enough, his first shot is at global warming! But the real story is t

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

On 8/12/07, David Mirly <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > 2) It would be wise to attempt to minimize our impacts on such a > complex system when we don't even partially understand the consequences. Just to beat on the defenders of the status quo some more, their rationale for denying climate chang

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

Dyson writes: > To stop the carbon in the atmosphere from increasing, we only need to > grow the biomass in the soil by a hundredth of an inch per year. Good > topsoil contains about ten percent biomass, [Schlesinger, 1977], so a > hundredth of an inch of biomass growth means about a tenth of an

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

I can't remember the source (sorry) but I do remember some "expert" saying that the problem isn't just that the climate is warming. We've already pointed out the the Earth has been much hotter than it is now. He said the problem is that it is warming up too fast (because of human activity) an

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

What an interesting list! Note that the same Challenge may occur multiple times due to a different Opportunity (solution). Communicable Diseases occurs 3 times and Malnutrition and Hunger 4 times, for example. That's good, makes the list specific solution oriented, thus clearer on cost of

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

On 8/12/07, Robert Holmes <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > The Copenhagen Consensus is a Danish think-tank that gets economists and > politicians to address the question "in a world of limited resources, if we > cannot do everything at once what should we do first?". The top-4 ratings > from their 20

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

Robert Holmes wrote: > But then the rational part of me recognizes that you probably do get > far more bang for your buck (in social welfare terms) with these > problems: they are (relatively) well understood and interventions have > a rapid effect on a huge number of people. In contrast, climat

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

The Copenhagen Consensus is a Danish think-tank that gets economists and politicians to address the question "in a world of limited resources, if we cannot do everything at once what should we do first?". The top-4 ratings from their 2006 meeting are: 1. communicable diseases 2. sanitation a

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

xity Coffee Group Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics I am frankly mystified by the conversation. No one I know of who is legitimately evaluating the data pretends to have any certainty as to the anthropogenic component.  The issues have to do with the likelihood of continued w

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics On Aug 11, 2007, at 8:17 PM, Phil Henshaw wrote: > ... > Of the three main energy sources, fossil, nuclear, and competition for > land, which would you recommend for providing exponential increases of > energy forever, without consequ

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

I am frankly mystified by the conversation. No one I know of who is legitimately evaluating the data pretends to have any certainty as to the anthropogenic component. The issues have to do with the likelihood of continued warming; the effects that that trend would have; the risks and rewar

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

On Aug 11, 2007, at 8:17 PM, Phil Henshaw wrote: > ... > Of the three main energy sources, fossil, nuclear, and competition for > land, which would you recommend for providing exponential increases of > energy forever, without consequences? I'm a (modified) nuke kinda guy. By modified, I mean th

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

Indeed! BTW: Just as a pointer: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleoclimatology .. has an overview of Paleoclimatology Note the quote: Changes in the atmosphere may also exert an important influence over climate change. The establishment of CO2-consuming (and oxygen- producing) photosythes

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

day, August 11, 2007 12:19 PM > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group > Subject: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics > > > This from the Edge: Freeman Dyson talking about the need for > heretics > in science: > <http://www.edge.org/documents/archive/edge21

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

Owen, I find it quite refreshing to hear someone express the viewpoint that we simply don't know to what extent human activity effects global warming. My left-wing-nut friends all go batty on the subject, falling down on their knees to worship Al Gore when the subject comes up. Even the smart on

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

Owen Densmore wrote: > BUT, personally, there is certainly > no reason to NOT minimize man's impact on the environment. > He (Freeman Dyson) wrote: > There is no doubt that parts of the world are getting warmer, but the > warming is not global. I am not saying that the warming does not cause

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

On Aug 11, 2007, at 3:42 PM, Robert Holmes wrote: > On 8/11/07, [EMAIL PROTECTED] <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >> >> Certainly there is a need for heretics and I consider myself a minor >> heretic and mystic outlaw, but to deny the reality of global >> warming/climate >> change is just stupid.

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

On 8/11/07, [EMAIL PROTECTED] <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Certainly there is a need for heretics and I consider myself a minor > heretic and mystic outlaw, but to deny the reality of global warming/climate > change is just stupid. > No it's not. Given the conclusion of the IPCC report that

Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

Certainly there is a need for heretics and I consider myself a minor heretic and mystic outlaw, but to deny the reality of global warming/climate change is just stupid. Freeman should look outside himself and look at the latest IPCC reports and the NSIC report which Nick (and others) have

[FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

This from the Edge: Freeman Dyson talking about the need for heretics in science: Interestingly enough, his first shot is at global warming! But the real story is that he want's *young* heretics, not old ones. Plenty of them and the