ght apply to simulation
> as well.
>
> I question whether formal models can
> describe/explain complex phenomena like human communication
> or whether they merely translate them into a form in which they are
> amenable to logical operators.
Thanks for the comment -- you are very
There's an interesting survey of "alternatives to GNP" on the web
page for my institute -- www.tufts.edu\gdae
On Wed, 16 Dec 1998, Douglas P. Wilson wrote:
> Caspar Davis wrote:
>
> > I assume you know about the various Genuine Progress Indicators that
> > have been proposed at various levels
the new report will be on policy and Governance, jsut check in and see
how it evolves with the ROUND UP's
heiner
Steve Kurtz wrote:
> Greetings,
>
> Have a quick look at the work being done by UN Univ:
>
> http://www.geocities.com/~acunu/millennium/scenarios/SPS.html
>
> Steve
--
Please CC:
Greetings,
Have a quick look at the work being done by UN Univ:
http://www.geocities.com/~acunu/millennium/scenarios/SPS.html
Steve
Caspar Davis wrote:
> I assume you know about the various Genuine Progress Indicators that
> have been proposed at various levels of the political hierarchy. ...
Well, I've certainly read and heard a lot about the problems of the GDP, but
I'm not up to data on alternatives. I used a search eng
Dear Douglas,
I assume you know about the various Genuine Progress Indicators that
have been proposed at various levels of the political hierarchy. They
contain many components which are not strictly "economic" but which are
essential reflections of the state of society. They also typically
subtr
e room for web pages.
More important, perhaps, if anyone has bad experiences with a web host,
please tell me to avoid them!
Lately I've been downloading a lot of data files over the web as part
of the economic simulation project I mentioned, but I will also be using
them for this matching expe
range of data collection strategies and file formats, so it
takes a lot more work to do anything with it than I expected. Even
just verifying that there is useful data in the downloaded files can
be quite difficult!
Along with freely available and redistributable simulation software I
think
Suppose Doug Wilson builds his simulation, tests it and finds it is 99.9%
accurate.
Now, suppose Doug runs the simulation and finds that Canadian employers
could save $36 billion a year in direct labour costs by creating 1,800,000
new full-time jobs.
Suppose Doug discovers that half of each
Well, good luck, afterall, if it turns out
to be a valid simulation it will show that
whatever the initial conditions, capitalism
ends up in crisis... I hope the results
will be well publicised and the participants
rework the operators until they
find successful functions, my guess is that they
can't introduce
>[this or that] reform because it will cause the economy to derail
>completely, and all hell will break loose. No, you must follow our
>sage pronouncements and keep playing the game according to our rules"
>then you can say "OK, let's just see if
-Pete Vincent wrote,
>then you can say "OK, let's just see if that's really true", and
>introduce the reform in the simulation. Then you can respond to
>the economist's criticism with "our reknowned reliable simulation
>engine clearly demonstr
less task, but I think I can count on a lot
input by very sceptical people such as the ones on this mailing list,
and perhaps a bit more concrete help too.
Later in a more sober mood Ed wrote:
> Nevertheless, I do feel that the questions I have raised about the
> simulation that Douglas W
"Edward Weick" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>Nevertheless, I do feel that the questions I have raised about the
>simulation that Douglas Wilson is proposing are valid: Is there really
>something to be simulated? If so, what? Will the proposed simulation lead
>
Thanks to Michael Gurstein <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> for the reference
to the Halloween document and his comments on Linux.
> What the simulation discussion triggered for me, was an image of a similar
> initiative to develop a map of the global economy with multiple
> independent info
I admit I did not follow this thread thoroughly, but
I have a question: How do you collect your initial data, is it all
based on the present ownership mode?
Can your scheme simulate a system based on a different
economic base, such as common ownership?
How can you simulate the scale of democracy
hat they do. Anyhow, what matters most is
that we all had a good time.
Nevertheless, I do feel that the questions I have raised about the
simulation that Douglas Wilson is proposing are valid: Is there really
something to be simulated? If so, what? Will the proposed simulation lead
to a better
What I find intriguing and potentially exciting about the simulation
notion that is being discussed is if it were to be set up in a way
parallel to the manner in which the on-going development of Linux/open
systems is proceeding.
Linus Thorvalds, a Finnish graduate student adapted the AT&a
behaviourist political affairs scientist, would be
interested to assist in the development of your simulation, on condition
that, epistemologically, free will would be excluded from your
simulation. I, on the other hand, can only offer the contrary.
Edward Weick wrote:
>
> > "
model which
cannot explain it endogenously is fatally flawed. Economists have never
been able to do it which is why they ignore it (they treat it as a residual
in the power function of the production function). So the conventional
algorithmic approach ultimately won't help, ditto non-chaotic simul
spiring. I marvel
>at your level of enthusiasm.
-Pete vincent
I, on the other hand, do not. I have seen little evidence that you really
know anything about the global economy that you hope to model. But then
I've never regarded simulation as a substitute for understanding.
Many y
her; so I rooted around a bit,
and found another site for the IFS simulation, at
demos.ps.arizona.edu/ifs/index.html
Hope to have more time to pursue this discussion next week.
-Pete vincent
This is a reply to several more messages about my project to do a
simulation of the world economy, but before I get on with replying,
I'd like to clear up some possible misunderstandings.
Since my post containing some tentative requirements analysis the
silence has been deafening, with
;why" must be answerable at all levels; for
example, allowing the learner to observe cause and effect, and also
allowing a view of the deeper logic in a simulation which shows how
variables are related
Realism - the simulator must correspond to the real world without
oversimplification
Adapt
I've done some tentative impure requirements analysis for a simulation
of the world economy. I say impure because I can't get design ideas
out of my head. It is probably best to admit this up front and also
to hint broadly at what these design ideas are.
Currently I envision this
Didn't chaos theory grow out of weather forecasters being humbled by what
their super computers were suggesting from simulations? Didn't it have to
do with what happened when the number of decimal places being used were
increased or decreased. Aren't measurements always approximations?
Also, pe
Tom Walker wrote:
> Pete Vincent wrote,
>
> >Most importantly, the simulation will be of no value if it is
> >algorithm-driven. To reflect the true picture, it must be an FSA
> >(Finite State Automata) model. Algorithms may be deduced from its
> >results, but not ord
Douglas Wilson asked about input data for modelling.
www.worldgame.org offers a data collection on CD for somthing like
US$240. Claims to be vety extensive. Has anybody perused or used
this data? Is it in a format that can be accessed without using the
proprietary software that accompanies it?
Mark Measday wrote:
> Naively, should the simulation work well and teach lessons in management
> of the world economy to those looking for that data, how will the
> simulation recursively model itself within it own simulation?
>
> I know this is a theoretical rather than pra
Naively, should the simulation work well and teach lessons in management
of the world economy to those looking for that data, how will the
simulation recursively model itself within it own simulation? It must be
an unknown quantity, no? As the results of its model produce unknown
outputs which
Didn't chaos theory grow out of weather forecasters being humbled by what
their super computers were suggesting from simulations? Didn't it have to
do with what happened when the number of decimal places being used were
increased or decreased. Aren't measurements always approximations?
Also, pe
This is a response to several people who have commented on my idea of
running a simulation of the world economy, and I should mention
especially Pete <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> who has some very useful ideas,
(as Tom Walker has also pointed out).
First a few general comments:
I want to d
Pete Vincent wrote,
>Most importantly, the simulation will be of no value if it is
>algorithm-driven. To reflect the true picture, it must be an FSA
>(Finite State Automata) model. Algorithms may be deduced from its
>results, but not ordained in its construction. The simulation shoul
(A glitch on my dial-in just caused mail to be sent out with this title
but no body. this is the post which was intended...)
"Douglas P. Wilson" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>I'd like to write a program to run a simulation of the world economy,
>first to see if Ja
- Original Message -
From: Douglas P. Wilson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>I'll try to find a way to include such complicated matters in my
>model, but it won't be easy. And that's really what's wrong with
>Jay's argument. He is absolutely certain beyond a shadow of a doubt
>that we're just goin
I'd like to thank Jay Hanson for taking the time to write an
intelligible message that makes sense in places. That's not to say
that I agree with him, but at least we can now carry on a discussion.
I wrote:
> >I'd like to write a program to run a simulation of the wo
Jay Hanson:
>
>I will save you some trouble Douglas, the most important variable is
>ENERGY. Economists are trained to believe that the world runs on money --
>but they are wrong. In fact, the world runs on energy.
This message, the lesson of the cake, etc., etc., etc,. etc., is getting
tiresom
From: Douglas P. Wilson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>I'd like to write a program to run a simulation of the world economy,
>first to see if Jay's conclusions follow from his own data, and then
>to do a sensitivity analysis to see what are the most important
>variables.
It is very tempting to just jump in and argue with Jay Hanson, but I'd
be surprised to find a single person on this mailing list who believes
that could ever be productive. So let me propose an alternative.
I'd like to write a program to run a simulation of the world economy,
first
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