Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-11 Thread James A. Donald
James A. Donald jam...@echeque.com wrote: You want an article appearing a peer reviewed journal proving that the journals are not genuinely peer reviewed? Edward K. Ream wrote: No. I want an article appearing in a peer reviewed journal indicating that the threat of global warming is

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-11 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Sun, Oct 11, 2009 at 4:08 AM, James A. Donald jam...@echeque.com wrote: James A. Donald jam...@echeque.com wrote: You want an article appearing a peer reviewed journal proving that the journals are not genuinely peer reviewed? Edward K. Ream wrote: No. I want an article appearing

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-10 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Fri, Oct 9, 2009 at 1:36 PM, James A. Donald jam...@echeque.com wrote: Edward K. Ream wrote: Your language gives you away. There is nothing fraudulent about attempting to reconstruct past climate data. It is entirely fraudulent to claim to have reconstructed past climate data

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-10 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Oct 10, 7:39 am, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: I do not intend to waste any more time on this discussion.  Continue it without citing a peer-reviewed article and you will be banned immediately. Here is a recent article: Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling Science

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-10 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Oct 10, 8:32 am, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: If you have some technical reason for believe this very recent article is false or misleading in some way, then you have the right to raise objections to the editors of Science.   But unless you are technically qualified to raise

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-09 Thread James A. Donald
James A. Donald This works in those fields where there is a lot of private funding, but in fields that are politically sensitive, and wholly government funded, we unsurprisingly get politics rather than science. Kent Tenney wrote: Do you think oil and coal companies have political power?

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-09 Thread James A. Donald
Edward K. Ream wrote: On Thu, Oct 8, 2009 at 5:59 AM, James A. Donald jam...@echeque.com wrote: James A. Donald jam...@echeque.com wrote: Unsupported and unexplained politically correct pseudo science appears all the time in Science and Nature Edward K. Ream wrote: If you want me to

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-09 Thread James A. Donald
Edward K. Ream wrote: I am asking for reliable data, from peer-reviewed articles. You want an article appearing a peer reviewed journal proving that the journals are not genuinely peer reviewed? You are, however, happy to rely on assertions by peer reviewed journals that they are in fact

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-09 Thread derwisch
On Oct 8, 4:28 pm, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: On Thu, Oct 8, 2009 at 6:15 AM, derwisch Science is full of schools which rather resemble competing tribes than people presenting contradicting facts, and agreeing to a common mindset might rather accelerate than impede a

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-09 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Fri, Oct 9, 2009 at 6:16 AM, derwisch johannes.hues...@med.uni-heidelberg.de wrote: Kuhn's work in no way implies that science is full of hoaxes. It acknowledges that science is done by human beings, and science must compensate for our human failings. I don't think there's a

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-09 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Oct 9, 9:14 am, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: You want an article appearing a peer reviewed journal proving that the journals are not genuinely peer reviewed? No.  I want an article appearing in a peer reviewed journal indicating that the threat of global warming is

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-09 Thread James A. Donald
Edward K. Ream wrote: Your language gives you away. There is nothing fraudulent about attempting to reconstruct past climate data. It is entirely fraudulent to claim to have reconstructed past climate data when ones results depend entirely on a group of ten trees, and to refrain for nine

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-08 Thread James A. Donald
James A. Donald jam...@echeque.com wrote: Genuine science is replicable. And replicable does not mean two priests recite the same doctrine, it means they explain what they did in such a fashion that anyone else could do it also. If they refuse to explain, they are not

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-08 Thread derwisch
On Oct 7, 3:35 pm, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: On Wed, Oct 7, 2009 at 8:11 AM, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: Imo, it is impossible to read any of the following and go away with the conclusion that evolutionary theory is anything but plain fact: One of the

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-08 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Thu, Oct 8, 2009 at 5:59 AM, James A. Donald jam...@echeque.com wrote: James A. Donald jam...@echeque.com wrote: Genuine science is replicable. And replicable does not mean two priests recite the same doctrine, it means they explain what they did in such a fashion that

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-08 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Thu, Oct 8, 2009 at 6:15 AM, derwisch johannes.hues...@med.uni-heidelberg.de wrote: On Oct 7, 3:35 pm, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: One of the most disheartening things about such debates is that many people fail to realize that science as a social enterprise has no

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-08 Thread Matt Wilkie
Of course I am.  Kuhn's work in no way implies that science is full of hoaxes. It acknowledges that science is done by human beings, and science must compensate for our human failings. A great audio series which involves this theme is How To Think About Science,

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-08 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Thu, Oct 8, 2009 at 11:53 AM, Matt Wilkie map...@gmail.com wrote: Of course I am. Kuhn's work in no way implies that science is full of hoaxes. It acknowledges that science is done by human beings, and science must compensate for our human failings. A great audio series which

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-08 Thread James A. Donald
Edward K. Ream wrote: There are *huge* disincentives for scientists to mislead themselves or others. If there were real data contradicting global warming or evolution, people would instantly make their career by uncovering them. This works in those fields where there is a lot of private

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-08 Thread James A. Donald
Edward K. Ream wrote: My wish is that we, individually and collectively, become connoisseurs of evidence. And especially evidence that *disconfirms* our own views. Your view is that Global Warming Science is science Well then, you should go and look at the evidence that disconfirms that

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-08 Thread Kent Tenney
On Thu, Oct 8, 2009 at 2:31 PM, James A. Donald jam...@echeque.com wrote: Edward K. Ream wrote: There are *huge* disincentives for scientists to mislead themselves or others.  If there were real data contradicting global warming or evolution, people would instantly make their career by

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-08 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Oct 8, 3:29 pm, James A. Donald jam...@echeque.com wrote: Here is the tale of his correspondence with the journal Science I am asking for reliable data, from peer-reviewed articles. Your guy is free to make as many wild accusations as he likes, as he is responsible to no one. Submit a

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-07 Thread ne1uno
On Oct 6, 3:56 pm, James A. Donald jam...@echeque.com wrote: Jesse Aldridge wrote: The connection to global warming is that there are situations where cooperation breaks down. Not because people don't understand the situation, but because circumstances compel them to take harmful

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-07 Thread James A. Donald
ne1uno wrote: so what's your spin on the anti junk science view of glaciers receding? As Climate skeptic sarcastically observed: Somehow, man’s burning of fossil fuels in the late 20th century has caused glaciers to begin melting … starting in the 18th century. glacier change is evidence

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-07 Thread Ville M. Vainio
On Wed, Oct 7, 2009 at 1:56 PM, James A. Donald jam...@echeque.com wrote: As the communists intended to annihilate the bourgeoisie, and the Nazis intended to exterminate the Jews, the greenies intend to destroy industrial civilization and reduce the earth's population to sustainable levels.

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-07 Thread thyrsus
The current glacier melt is not about snowfall, it's about feedback loops. Watch http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY about the failure of past experience to deal with exponential changes. Characterizing those who want to mitigate climate change as interested primarily in population

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-07 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Tue, Oct 6, 2009 at 5:56 PM, James A. Donald jam...@echeque.com wrote: Jesse Aldridge wrote: Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global warming is a scam. Not a supportable proposition. Try reading a year's worth of Science Magazine (as I do) or Nature. You will not find anything at all to

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-07 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Wed, Oct 7, 2009 at 5:19 AM, James A. Donald jam...@echeque.com wrote: Kent Tenney wrote: The science is beyond me, but I'll take the word of 100's of climate scientists from many countries over several decades over an economist who says what people want to hear. Genuine

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-07 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Wed, Oct 7, 2009 at 8:11 AM, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: Imo, it is impossible to read any of the following and go away with the conclusion that evolutionary theory is anything but plain fact: One of the most disheartening things about such debates is that many people fail

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-07 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Wed, Oct 7, 2009 at 8:35 AM, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: For example, we are on the brink of learning in detail, exactly how life arose. The work of Gerald F. Joyce is particularly exciting:

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-07 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Wed, Oct 7, 2009 at 8:11 AM, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: Kitzmiller v. Dover Area School District http://www.pamd.uscourts.gov/kitzmiller/04cv2688-111.pdf BTW, one of my hobbies is reading interesting judicial cases. I was surprised at first by how easy they are to read.

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-07 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Wed, Oct 7, 2009 at 8:45 AM, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: On Wed, Oct 7, 2009 at 8:11 AM, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.comwrote: Kitzmiller v. Dover Area School District http://www.pamd.uscourts.gov/kitzmiller/04cv2688-111.pdf BTW, one of my hobbies is reading

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-07 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Wed, Oct 7, 2009 at 8:11 AM, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: What we see in all these works is the dishonesty, pure and simple, of the opponents of evolution. In particular, the judge in the Kitzmiller case accused some of the witnesses for the defense (intelligent design) of

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-07 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Oct 7, 8:35 am, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: In contrast, the deniers have obvious personal agendas that underlies their doubt.  In the case of evolution, the religious (rightly!) feel threatened by the mountain of evidence that we were created by a simple process acting over

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-07 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Oct 7, 9:37 am, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: The two views are more strongly related by their utter contempt for evidence. My wish is that we, individually and collectively, become connoisseurs of evidence. And especially evidence that *disconfirms* our own views. See, for

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-07 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Wed, Oct 7, 2009 at 10:20 AM, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: On Oct 7, 9:37 am, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: The two views are more strongly related by their utter contempt for evidence. My wish is that we, individually and collectively, become connoisseurs of

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-07 Thread John Griessen
Edward K. Ream wrote: Ops. Got the wrong pdf. Here is the full text of the decision. http://www.pamd.uscourts.gov/kitzmiller/kitzmiller_342.pdf Thanks. Skimming the first 50 pp. was a really good read! The backflips described in getting ID promoted in classes such as saying a

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-07 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Oct 6, 4:38 am, Jesse Aldridge jessealdri...@gmail.com wrote: I see global warming as more of an economic, game-theoretical problem.  Assume that cutting emissions means increasing costs of production (in the short term).  That means countries that don't cut emissions will have an

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-07 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Oct 6, 4:18 pm, Jesse Aldridge jessealdri...@gmail.com wrote: At first glance, I don't see how the video relates exactly, but I can tell you I would not have invested :-) I would have invested.  I would have felt it was the morally imperative thing to do.  And I would have gotten

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-07 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Oct 6, 5:56 pm, James A. Donald jam...@echeque.com wrote: Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global warming is a scam. Or not. Here is a quote from the 25 September 2009 issue of Science Magazine. http://www.sciencemag.org/content/vol325/issue5948/index.dtl#twis Steven Chu is the U.S. Secretary

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-07 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Oct 7, 2:48 pm, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: On Oct 6, 5:56 pm, James A. Donald jam...@echeque.com wrote: Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global warming is a scam. Here is another view: http://dougcarmichael.com/mahb/2009_solomonirreversible.pdf From the abstract: QQQ The

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-07 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Oct 7, 3:06 pm, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global warming is a scam. Here is another view: http://dougcarmichael.com/mahb/2009_solomonirreversible.pdf Here is the entire abstract: QQQ The severity of damaging human-induced climate change

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-07 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Oct 6, 5:56 pm, James A. Donald jam...@echeque.com wrote: For a relatively easy to understand summary of the latest fraud to be exposed, see http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2009/10/... one of many such discoveries of junk science.' Your language gives you

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-07 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Wed, Oct 7, 2009 at 6:03 PM, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: On Oct 6, 5:56 pm, James A. Donald jam...@echeque.com wrote: For a relatively easy to understand summary of the latest fraud to be exposed, see http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2009/10/..

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-07 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Oct 7, 8:56 pm, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: This whole affair has the ring of a bad joke.  So in the spirit of the jokester, here are two links: Glen Beck tries to kill parody web site:http://scienceblogs.com/dispatches/2009/10/beck_tries_to_kill_parody_... and the

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-07 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Oct 7, 9:04 pm, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: And another.  We're on his case like white on rice: http://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/9gccy/did_glenn_beck_murder... And another. Glenn Beck the scientist http://mediamatters.org/mmtv/200909020033 EKR

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-06 Thread Jesse Aldridge
Yes. I love this problem. I refused to believe the explanation the first time I heard it. I ended up writing a script to prove it's validity to myself: import random def monty_hall(): doors = ['car', 'goat', 'goat'] random.shuffle(doors) # Assume we guess the first door

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-06 Thread Ville M. Vainio
On Tue, Oct 6, 2009 at 11:52 AM, Jesse Aldridge jessealdri...@gmail.com wrote: For me the key insight of the Monty Hall problem is that humans, due to having limited working memory, collapse a sequence of events down to just the current state.  Our brains are wired to disregard the initial

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-06 Thread Jesse Aldridge
I see global warming as more of an economic, game-theoretical problem. Assume that cutting emissions means increasing costs of production (in the short term). That means countries that don't cut emissions will have an economic advantage over countries that do cut emissions. In Game Theory,

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-06 Thread Jesse Aldridge
To be fair, this is what they teach about statistic problems in high school. You should not think of what happened before, and only consider the situation *right now*. Ah, yes, that's a good point. --~--~-~--~~~---~--~~ You received this message because you

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-06 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Oct 6, 4:38 am, Jesse Aldridge jessealdri...@gmail.com wrote: Check out this video:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhrnFGP4zks It had quite an effect on me the first time I watched it. At first glance, I don't see how the video relates exactly, but I can tell you I would not have invested

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-06 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Oct 5, 4:55 am, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: And in contrast, the worst article ever published in Scientific American:http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=squeezing-more-oil Just ran across this site:http://www.badscience.net/ If I were a conspiracy buff, I would

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-06 Thread James A. Donald
Jesse Aldridge wrote: The connection to global warming is that there are situations where cooperation breaks down. Not because people don't understand the situation, but because circumstances compel them to take harmful (though logically sound) actions. For example, China and India

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-06 Thread Kent Tenney
On Tue, Oct 6, 2009 at 5:56 PM, James A. Donald jam...@echeque.com wrote: Jesse Aldridge wrote:   The connection to global warming is that there are   situations where cooperation breaks down.  Not because   people don't understand the situation, but because   circumstances compel them to

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-05 Thread Ville M. Vainio
On Mon, Oct 5, 2009 at 12:34 PM, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: Take a look at this: http://www.philipbrocoum.com/?p=967 This is the best explanation of this problem I've ever seen.  The conclusion: by switching doors, you increase the probability of winning from 1/3 to 2/3,

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-05 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Oct 5, 4:34 am, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: This is the best explanation of this problem I've ever seen.  The conclusion: by switching doors, you increase the probability of winning from 1/3 to 2/3, **not** to 1/2. And in contrast, the worst article ever published in

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-05 Thread derwisch
I heard it so often that I can't really get it how one could not get it, although it took me myself a while to appreciate the problem. On Oct 5, 11:49 am, Ville M. Vainio vivai...@gmail.com wrote: I may be autistic or something, but I still don't get it. (Unless the game has a rule where

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-05 Thread Edward K. Ream
I may be autistic or something, but I still don't get it. If you don't switch, the only way you can *win* is if the car is behind your door. If you switch, the only way you can *lose* is if the car is behind your door. There is a 1/3 probability that the car is behind any particular door, so

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-05 Thread Ville M. Vainio
On Mon, Oct 5, 2009 at 12:58 PM, derwisch johannes.hues...@med.uni-heidelberg.de wrote: I heard it so often that I can't really get it how one could not get it, although it took me myself a while to appreciate the problem. Hah! I was writing an explanation of why I think this is a prank, and

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-05 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Oct 5, 4:34 am, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: Take a look at this:http://www.philipbrocoum.com/?p=967 This is the best explanation of this problem I've ever seen.  The conclusion: by switching doors, you increase the probability of winning from 1/3 to 2/3, **not** to 1/2. By

Re: OT: The Monty Hall Problem

2009-10-05 Thread Edward K. Ream
On Oct 5, 4:55 am, Edward K. Ream edream...@gmail.com wrote: This article has no basis in either science, mathematics or economics.  At root, it is enumerate and unscientific. I should have said, innumerate. Edward --~--~-~--~~~---~--~~ You received this