Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Eric Walker
On Thu, Dec 12, 2013 at 1:55 PM, Blaze Spinnaker wrote: I also have this weird fear that we might create a drag that slows the spin > of the earth's rotation. :D > If we could work out a global windmill installation that could accomplish that, I think our energy problems would be solved for a wh

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Blaze Spinnaker
Yeah, good points all. The implicit insurance subsidy for Nuclear is pretty massive. On Thu, Dec 12, 2013 at 4:47 PM, Jed Rothwell wrote: > Blaze Spinnaker wrote: > > >> We need to be installing these solar panels without subsidies (and >> including all install costs, labor etc) and still pay

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Jed Rothwell
Blaze Spinnaker wrote: > We need to be installing these solar panels without subsidies (and > including all install costs, labor etc) and still paying less than general > utility fees over 10 years or so. > I would agree to the no subsidy plan, but only after we level the playing field: 1. We

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Blaze Spinnaker
Individually it's an interesting story, but on a mass scale it doesn't quite add up - yet. We need to be installing these solar panels without subsidies (and including all install costs, labor etc) and still paying less than general utility fees over 10 years or so. When that happens, install gro

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Bob Higgins
The way I look this is a little different. I was the first house in my community of 50k to have PV. When I go to sell my house (which I plan to do next year), if the solar power is the feature that attracts the customer that buys my house, then it was paid back in that one instant. It has been i

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Bob Higgins
It is about 440 square feet on top of my flat patio roof. It is 2 strings of 15 in parallel for a total of 30 panels. The total installed cost was $35k, but I got back $20k from the state of FL (an incentive for growing a solar business in FL) and then I got back about $2500 in tax credits. So t

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Jed Rothwell
I wrote: > In 2012, total installed nameplate capacity was 60 GW. With a capacity > factor of 30% that's ~18 GW. It produced 3% of U.S. electricity. > Ah ha. It is more than 3% now. That was with 2011 end-of-year capacity. See: http://www.windpoweringamerica.gov/pdfs/2012_annual_wind_market_rep

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Jed Rothwell
Chris Zell wrote: It is always difficult for me to accept that the living world constantly > needs our intervention, as if the whole of adaptive evolution never took > place - including dramatic catastrophes. > Well, natural catastrophes wiped out entire species. We don't want that to happen be

RE: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Chris Zell
It is always difficult for me to accept that the living world constantly needs our intervention, as if the whole of adaptive evolution never took place - including dramatic catastrophes. Rupert Sheldrake once claimed that some small birds learned to attack products delivered by the milkman- cle

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Jed Rothwell
Blaze Spinnaker wrote: > > Sure, but if the rate of windmill capacity doubled 7 more times or so, I > wouldn't want to be a bird. > This really is not a problem. Birds are evolved to avoid whacking into large, opaque moving objects. Such as pine trees waving in the wind. In high winds, pine tree

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Jed Rothwell
I wrote: > At the rate wind is expanding it will not take centuries to catch up with > nuclear power. It is increasing at around 13 GW nameplate per year, or > about 4 nukes. > In other words, at this rate, wind will catch up to nukes and produce ~20% of our electricity in about 20 years. It ha

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Blaze Spinnaker
"It kills thousands of times fewer birds than coal smoke does, and steam from power generator cooling towers do. It kills fewer birds than reflective glass buildings do. If we could replace all coal with wind today, it would save far more birds than it kills. It would also save roughly 20,000 human

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Jed Rothwell
Blaze Spinnaker wrote: Wind is terrific as well, however it's pretty hard to improve the tech all > that rapidly like solar. > It is still moving ahead pretty quickly. Especially offshore installations. In Northern Europe North Sea offshore installations could produce 4 times more electricity th

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Blaze Spinnaker
There's a company called Solar City and what they do is install panels on your house and then sell the electricity back to you at a lower rate than what you pay your utility. These are the sort of innovative things that are happening. On Thu, Dec 12, 2013 at 1:44 PM, Jed Rothwell wrote: > Blaz

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Blaze Spinnaker
Wind is terrific as well, however it's pretty hard to improve the tech all that rapidly like solar. It also kills birds, ruins sight lines, etc. But yes, wind is good. I love this article in the economist: http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21587782-europes-electricity-providers-face-exist

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Jed Rothwell
Blaze Spinnaker wrote: > Maybe, but the present amount of capacity has doubled 4 times over the > last 10 years. > Sure. It has great potential. I would be wary of projecting that kind of growth into the future, because there may be problems integrating it into the net. Could there be problems

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Jed Rothwell
Wind power is much larger than PV solar at present. That does not mean the future capacity is more, it means wind has been developed longer. See: http://www.windpoweringamerica.gov/wind_installed_capacity.asp#yearly It is fun to watch the changing graphic map chart at the top right of this page.

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Blaze Spinnaker
"Total U.S. generator capacity is roughly 1,000 GW. So it would take 1,700 years to replace that with solar at the present rate of installation." Maybe, but the present amount of capacity has doubled 4 times over the last 10 years. If it becomes significantly profitable to install solar over our

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Jed Rothwell
Here is all kinds of great information about electric power generation: http://www.eia.gov/electricity/ http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/article/renewable_electricity.cfm

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Jed Rothwell
Bob Higgins wrote: To get kWH/day from peak kW in PV, you multiply by the average full power > equivalent hours per day. In FL, this is 4 hours (mostly due to clouds). > In NM the number is 5. In the continental US as a whole, the number is > probably about 3.5-4. > 3.5 hours out of 24 is 14.5

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Terry Blanton
On Thu, Dec 12, 2013 at 3:41 PM, Bob Higgins wrote: > It works great. > > Is it cost effective?

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Blaze Spinnaker
http://www.wholesalesolar.com/Information-SolarFolder/SunHoursUSMap.html I'm in Zone 6. :( On Thu, Dec 12, 2013 at 12:41 PM, Bob Higgins wrote: > To get kWH/day from peak kW in PV, you multiply by the average full power > equivalent hours per day. In FL, this is 4 hours (mostly due to clouds)

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Jed Rothwell
Bob Higgins wrote: > I have a 5.3 kW peak fixed PV system that provides most of the power for > my house. > Wow! How many square feet is that? How much did it cost? - Jed

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Bob Higgins
To get kWH/day from peak kW in PV, you multiply by the average full power equivalent hours per day. In FL, this is 4 hours (mostly due to clouds). In NM the number is 5. In the continental US as a whole, the number is probably about 3.5-4. This is for a fixed (not tracking) array. This number i

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Jed Rothwell
Here is a graph of U.S. PV solar installations per quarter since 2010. It shows rapid growth: http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2013/12/more-records-for-quarterly-us-solar-installations It shows "930 MW in the July-September" quarter. That means 930 MW peak output from the sola

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Jed Rothwell
Blaze Spinnaker wrote: I think the folks of Shanghai might disagree with that one. > Why Shanghai? What's the news from Shanghai? - Jed

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-12 Thread Terry Blanton
This could actually work to the utilities advantage if they embraced the idea. Prices are higher because demand is higher. With the right pricing structure, such arbitraging could prevent the construction of generating facilities to meet peak demand. On Wed, Dec 11, 2013 at 10:34 PM, Blaze Spin

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-11 Thread Blaze Spinnaker
I think the folks of Shanghai might disagree with that one. The only real use of Solar is to replace fossil fuels. On Wed, Dec 11, 2013 at 8:30 PM, Eric Walker wrote: > On Wed, Dec 11, 2013 at 6:24 PM, Jed Rothwell wrote: > > There is a lot to be said for PV solar, but it cannot meet 100% of

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-11 Thread Eric Walker
On Wed, Dec 11, 2013 at 6:24 PM, Jed Rothwell wrote: There is a lot to be said for PV solar, but it cannot meet 100% of our > energy needs unless an improved battery comes along. > I think if we found ready sources of energy, demand would increase and we'd find new ways of using it. Similar dev

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-11 Thread Blaze Spinnaker
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/breaking-the-logjam-on-10mw-of-california-solar-storage-projects "Since this spring, those utilities have been requiring any net-metered solar power projects that include batteries to go through a lengthy and expensive process to prove their batteries ar

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-11 Thread Blaze Spinnaker
It's actually interesting, but PV batteries are getting so good some utilities are disallowing systems which feedback energy into the grid via these batteries because homeowners are actually arbitraging. They're actually charging their batteries off the grid and then selling back into it when pri

Re: [Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-11 Thread Jed Rothwell
There is a lot to be said for PV solar, but it cannot meet 100% of our energy needs unless an improved battery comes along. Because the sun goes away at night. It can meet a large fraction of our needs, especially in places such as Nevada, where peak demand occurs when the sun is brightest and air

[Vo]:Exponential growth in Solar Energy

2013-12-11 Thread Blaze Spinnaker
http://edition.cnn.com/2013/12/10/business/ray-kurzweil-future-of-human-life/index.html If we could capture one part in ten thousand of the sunlight that falls on the Earth we could meet 100% of our energy needs, using this renewable and environmentally friendly source. As we apply new molecular