No, no, no. if 1 in 167 people is killed each year, that means each year your odds of being killed are, at least numerically, 1 in 167. Those odds do not change the following year. They don't all of a sudden become 1 in 83.5.
On 11/11/06, Gruss wrote: > > > G-man wrote: > > .999983^365=.993814 or 99.3814% chance of living. That means a soldier > has > > > > 1-.993814=.006186 or 0.6% chance of dying based on current statistics. > > > > Oh! So let's see if my "theory" holds up ... the longer a soldier > stays in Iraq the higher I'm saying his probability of being killed > is. Let's see! > > 0.999983^730 = 0.987667 or 98.77% chance of living meaning the chance > of dying is: > > 1-0.9877=0.0123 or 1.2% > > So, there you have it. I'm right. Based on current statistics a > soldier has a 0.6% chance of dying in one year of combat and a 1.2% > chance of dying in 2 years of combat. > > Put another way, the longer you stay, the more likely you are to die. -- --------------- Robert Munn www.funkymojo.com ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Introducing the Fusion Authority Quarterly Update. 80 pages of hard-hitting, up-to-date ColdFusion information by your peers, delivered to your door four times a year. http://www.fusionauthority.com/quarterly Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/CF-Community/message.cfm/messageid:220440 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/CF-Community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=11502.10531.5
