Axil Axil <janap...@gmail.com> wrote: > > You missed the significance in this important sentence of my post > regarding social engineering: > > *“All that is required is to delay the powering of transportation using > LENR to provide an economic incentive to the farmer for liquid fuel > production.”* >
Ah. I get it. You are suggesting that an obsolete (or obsolescent) technology may improve in the face of potential competition from a new technology. Yes, that does happen. Sailing ships improved in the 1840s, partly in competition with steamships, and partly by borrowing technology from them. Nowadays, conventional automobile engine efficiency is improving partly in competition with hybrid technology. In this case, however, cold fusion is so much better than any liquid chemical fuel that I doubt any improvement to liquid fuel will delay the introduction of cold fusion. Various factors such as technical glitches may slow down cold fusion, but I doubt this particular factor will. For one thing, this form of liquid fuel would require a lot of expensive R&D to perfect, and I doubt any venture capitalist would fund this knowing that cold fusion will soon arrive. It would be like improving a vacuum tube computer after transistors were invented. > Elimination of farm waste will save 5000 lives a year from food poisoning > and a $trillion in medical bills. This advantage in itself is worth > delaying introduction of LENR in transportation products. > > There is not a single driver who would take this into account when making a decision to purchase a car! There are no manufacturers who would be so stupid as to delay the introduction of cold fusion powered cars because of this. Any delay competing would be fatal. Selling a liquid fuel car in a cold fusion world would be like trying to sell a wind-up record player to customers who want iPods. > Anyway, According to Rossi, it will take 25 years to develosp LENR for > transportation and 35 more years to replace all the old vehicles. > I think that is nonsense. It will take 5 or 10 years to develop the vehicle because that is how long it took Toyota to develop the Prius, and there will be far more incentive -- and pressure -- to develop cold fusion. Once cold fusion begins to replace conventional cars, the changeover will be swift for various reasons I spelled out in the book. The half-life of a modern car is about 4 years. Once half of the fleet is gone, gas stations will go out of business and the owners will be forced to abandon the others. So it will take 4 to 6 years to replace all cars. 99% of all cars are replaced every 8 years now, so this will not call for much extra production or resources. I get a feeling Rossi does not understand some of the fundamentals of business and technology. - Jed
