Re: [AsburyPark] Re: Preservation Development: A Dynamic Give Take

2008-12-03 Thread MarioAPNJ
As a layman, I chose generic excerpts about balance, choices, economics  
realities, and historical responsibilities.
 
Regarding the specifics in the article, there seem to be some  compelling 
arguments on all sides.  I enjoy hearing knowledgeable and  competent people 
make 
their cases.
 
===
 
 
In a message dated 12/3/2008 6:56:10 A.M. Eastern Standard Time,  
[EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:

--- In  AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
  
  Excerpts from the fourth in a series: Landmarks Preservation Meets  
Development in a Delicate Urban
 Dance - Series - NYTimes.com  
  
 orhttp://tinyurl.com/6zahjy   (December 2, 2008)
 
 It must strike a balance  between protecting architecture and
 accepting economic realities,  between a responsibility to history
 and a knowledge that the city must  evolve
  
 Its making choices and, without unlimited  resources, having to
 make those  choices and being able to do  some things and not do
 other things.
  
==

A more  relevant excerpt... Preservation is good economics and could
have been used  to great success in Asbury Park.


Preserving sections of old New  York can actually spur economic
renewal, they say, citing areas like  TriBeCa, where the designation of
a new historic district in 1992  accelerated the area's transformation
into one of the city's most  sought-after neighborhoods.

There hasn't been enough attention to how  new development can work
with old buildings, said Andrew S. Dolkart, the  director of the
historic preservation program at Columbia University.  That's the
biggest flaw in New York and preservation in the last decade —  it's
just ignored. All things considered, a relatively tiny proportion  of
New York land is landmarked. It's hardly an obstacle to  economic
growth in the city.

Developers tend to disagree.  ...

Werner

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[AsburyPark] Re: Gannett Co. Inc. has eliminated 206 positions

2008-12-03 Thread justifiedright
Yet triCityNews has just passed the 70 page mark.

Better business model - better journalism model.

The future of journalism is journalists telling you upfront what 
their political affiliations are.

It's just more trustworthy.

The fastest growing news delivery format in America is partisan blogs.

The old format of make-believe objectivity is dying.


--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, Michael W. Brim [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
wrote:

 Gannett eliminates positions at New Jersey newspapers
 
 December 3, 2008 
 
 .  
 
 Gannett Co. Inc. has eliminated 206 positions at its six newspapers 
in New
 Jersey due to declining advertising revenues and the severe economic
 downturn afflicting the state and the nation.
 
 The company began notifying the affected employees Tuesday at the 
Daily
 Record, the Asbury Park Press in Neptune, the Courier-Post in 
Cherry Hill,
 the Home News Tribune in East Brunswick, the Courier News in 
Bridgewater and
 the Daily Journal in Vineland.
 
 The economic downturn we are facing is severe and is expected to 
last
 throughout next year, said Thomas M. Donovan, president and 
publisher of
 the Asbury Park Press and vice president of Gannett's East 
Newspaper Group.
 We have reduced expenses significantly throughout this year. But,
 unfortunately, as we looked ahead to economic forecasts for 2009, 
it became
 clear that we needed to make further reductions.
 
 Employees who were laid off received severance benefits 
commensurate with
 their years of service.
 
  
 
  
 
  
 
 Michael W.  Brim
 
 321 Sunset Avenue, Unit 5F
 
 Asbury Park NJ 07712-5550
 
 Cell: 732-996-8160
 
  
 
 
 
 [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]






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Re: [AsburyPark] Re: Gannett Co. Inc. has eliminated 206 positions

2008-12-03 Thread Jersey Shore John
Yes! Let's just have everyone in an information ghetto, where they  
only read what they want to hear by people who already agree with  
them! Perfect!

On Dec 3, 2008, at 8:46 AM, justifiedright wrote:

 Yet triCityNews has just passed the 70 page mark.

 Better business model - better journalism model.

 The future of journalism is journalists telling you upfront what
 their political affiliations are.

 It's just more trustworthy.

 The fastest growing news delivery format in America is partisan blogs.

 The old format of make-believe objectivity is dying.

 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, Michael W. Brim [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 wrote:
 
  Gannett eliminates positions at New Jersey newspapers
 
  December 3, 2008
 
  .
 
  Gannett Co. Inc. has eliminated 206 positions at its six newspapers
 in New
  Jersey due to declining advertising revenues and the severe economic
  downturn afflicting the state and the nation.
 
  The company began notifying the affected employees Tuesday at the
 Daily
  Record, the Asbury Park Press in Neptune, the Courier-Post in
 Cherry Hill,
  the Home News Tribune in East Brunswick, the Courier News in
 Bridgewater and
  the Daily Journal in Vineland.
 
  The economic downturn we are facing is severe and is expected to
 last
  throughout next year, said Thomas M. Donovan, president and
 publisher of
  the Asbury Park Press and vice president of Gannett's East
 Newspaper Group.
  We have reduced expenses significantly throughout this year. But,
  unfortunately, as we looked ahead to economic forecasts for 2009,
 it became
  clear that we needed to make further reductions.
 
  Employees who were laid off received severance benefits
 commensurate with
  their years of service.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Michael W. Brim
 
  321 Sunset Avenue, Unit 5F
 
  Asbury Park NJ 07712-5550
 
  Cell: 732-996-8160
 
 
 
 
 
  [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
 


 



[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]




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[AsburyPark] Re: Gannett Co. Inc. has eliminated 206 positions

2008-12-03 Thread oakdorf
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Yet triCityNews has just passed the 70 page mark.
 
 Better business model - better journalism model.
 

the tri city is like the net

publish a bit of content, give it away for free to be paid for with
ads price what is perceived to be cheap.

Each page is looked at as is this page profitable for me to produce..

Ad revenue vs content vs cost of production per page.

The Internet.





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[AsburyPark] Any thoughts of selling the rights to

2008-12-03 Thread oakdorf
Future parking revenues?

As in the cases I mentioned yesterday, some munis are selling
(leasing) the rights to future parking revenues. Looks like the going
rate is about 25,000 per spot for a 75 year period. Additional kickers
are bumps for a share of overtime fines. So if AP had 1200 spaces
along the ocean, that would amount to about $37 millon paid upfront

The parking spaces on the street are an asset.

When the esperana was being sold, they were giving one spot.
Additional spot was I think about $30k. I think dan came up with an
appraisers method of justifying that cost.

So how about it - should the city look into leasing the rights to
parking in the city?

Oceanfront spots higher then downtown and main (if it all)..

Be nice not to see employees and owners of the businesses not taking
up the ocean ave spots..






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[AsburyPark] Re: Gannett Co. Inc. has eliminated 206 positions

2008-12-03 Thread justifiedright
Exactly!

I dubbed triCity a plog short for printed web log.

The paper adopts the name.

It's the future.

I welcome it.


--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, oakdorf [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
 justifiedright@ wrote:
 
  Yet triCityNews has just passed the 70 page mark.
  
  Better business model - better journalism model.
  
 
 the tri city is like the net
 
 publish a bit of content, give it away for free to be paid for with
 ads price what is perceived to be cheap.
 
 Each page is looked at as is this page profitable for me to 
produce..
 
 Ad revenue vs content vs cost of production per page.
 
 The Internet.






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dsher4
Here is how the math works.  Most investors would be looking for a 10% 
rate of return, maybe more in this environment.  So if we calculate 
how much money the meters could generate in a given year, we could 
also figure out how much an investor would be willing to put up in an 
upfront payment for the rights to that future stream of cash flow.  
I believe there are about 2000 spots.  If we assume they each collect 
50 cents an hour for 12 hours for each day of the summer we get the 
following numbers (again these are just assumptions).  16 weeks of 
summer times 7 days per week is 112 prospective days.  At 2000 meters, 
12 hours per day at 50 cents (nothing assumed for off season) you 
generate 1.344 million per year (the town could keep the fees from 
parking tickets not assumed here).  
The present value of that stream of free cash flows (assuming a 10 
year deal with a 10% rate of return to the investor would be 8.258 
million.  After 10 years the meters would revert back to the town's 
ownership.  So using those numbers an investor would be willing to put 
up 8.258 million to the town up front for the right to collect 1.344 
million per year for 10 years.  The investor gets a 10% return, Asbury 
get's a big up front payment to bridge a budget gap and the meters 
revert back to the town after year 10 so Asbury doesn't mortgage its 
future earnings power.

Dan S.  
 


--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, oakdorf [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, oakdorf oakdorf@ wrote:
 
 
 
 here's another read.
 
 Realize for once, that those parking spaces are GOLD. 
 
 But don't take the money upfront, cause it would just get pissed 
away.






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread wernerapnj
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Here is how the math works.  Most investors would be looking for a 10% 
 rate of return, maybe more in this environment.



Bottom line via the above scenario is that the Parking Rights be
leased for 10 years for a lump sum payment of $8.25 Million

City has a deficit of $13 Million that could be up to $15 Million next
year.

There are no guarantees of increased cash flow from redevelopment
because there are no timelines, no performance bonds, no
non-performance penalties. The Council has no will to take the
'developers' to Court.

Keep in mind that the lack of redevelopment will have a very adverse
effect on parking revenues making it a riskier venture than appears on
the surface.

Leasing the Parking Rights as described would not clear the deficit
and would not address the underlying flaws in the situation.

It could help however as part of a broader strategy.. 

Werner





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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dfsavgny
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:


 The present value of that stream of free cash flows (assuming a 10 
 year deal with a 10% rate of return to the investor would be 8.258 
 million.  After 10 years the meters would revert back to the town's 
 ownership.  So using those numbers an investor would be willing to put 
 up 8.258 million to the town up front for the right to collect 1.344 
 million per year for 10 years.  The investor gets a 10% return, Asbury 
 get's a big up front payment to bridge a budget gap and the meters 
 revert back to the town after year 10 so Asbury doesn't mortgage its 
 future earnings power.
 
 Dan S.  
  

Your math only holds true for a short period (no reversionary
interest) and does not account for appreciation (increase in parking
fees).  What do you mean by return? IRR or return ON capital or cap
rate - a return OF and ON capital.

There is a difference between YIELD (Y) and CAP (R) rates. Because R =
Y - Change in Value, if there is appreciation (increase in value as
there always is - and would be in this case IF the operator could
increase parking fees over the 10-year period), Y (yield, discount,
interest rate or IRR) is almost always higher than the R (cap rate).

Thus, if the investor is looking for an IRR of 10%, the cap rate is
lower. I was going to reply to oaks post that I would think a cap rate
of 6%-8% would be appropriate. Last year it was probably under 5%. 

At 6%, the $1.344M would be worth $22.4M assuming the income stream
could be capitalized into perpetuity ($1.344/6%). Under something like
Oak suggests (75-year term) direct capitalization would be more
appropriate than your discounting method, and even that does not
account for an increase in the income over the 10-years. (a CAP rate
reflects the relationship between a SINGLE estimate of income and
value, while a YIELD rate is the relationship between a SERIES of
incomes and value.)

The parking spaces in AP are very valuable but SHOULD not be leased in
my opinion, unless on a short-term basis with kickers and sharing of
revenues.

Getting the money up front would only makes us blow it.





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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dsher4
Hopefully not boring everyone on the board with financial lingo i 
will try to answer as simply as possible.  

I purposefully didn't run this into perpetuity because i think it 
would be absurd to give up the rights to ownership forever.  Hence 
my ten year term.  I could have picked 30 years which is how many 
such projects are financed.  Obviously the longer the period the 
more the upfront payment to the town.  

Return in this instance is IRR but takes into account the time value 
of money.  Remember that to the investor the initial returns are 
negative but the out year returns are very postive but averaged out 
equates to 10%.  Or put another way, it takes about 6 years for the 
investor to break even but then years 6-10 are all gravy but the 
overall IRR is 10% (again no leverage is used)

I didn't use a cap rate because the investor has no ownership at the 
end of a term.  That is the same reason i didn't include change in 
value because that will benefit the town, not the investor.

The only snafu is that the town would probably have to guarantee the 
payment stream because no investor in their right mind would sign up 
such a deal without collateral to fall back on.  So because they 
don't own the spots, the investor would need a guarantee.  

This is where a lot of the interesting scenario's come in but 
requires the town to not screw it up.  The town could guarantee a 
specific payment but then keep any overages.  The investor has a 
guaranteed income stream and the town gets the money's over a 
certain level.  The rub is that you are making a bet that 
redevelopment continues, the meters bring in the forecasted 
revenues and that is probably just too dicey considering the town's 
current situation.  I wonder if the state would work with the town 
so Asbury can get off the dole with some performance metrics 
outlined to make sure redevelopment continues on course.  I'm just 
free associating here so feel free to add if anyone has any other 
ideas.  

 
   
 
 Your math only holds true for a short period (no reversionary
 interest) and does not account for appreciation (increase in 
parking
 fees).  What do you mean by return? IRR or return ON capital or cap
 rate - a return OF and ON capital.
 
 There is a difference between YIELD (Y) and CAP (R) rates. Because 
R =
 Y - Change in Value, if there is appreciation (increase in value as
 there always is - and would be in this case IF the operator could
 increase parking fees over the 10-year period), Y (yield, discount,
 interest rate or IRR) is almost always higher than the R (cap 
rate).
 
 Thus, if the investor is looking for an IRR of 10%, the cap rate is
 lower. I was going to reply to oaks post that I would think a cap 
rate
 of 6%-8% would be appropriate. Last year it was probably under 5%. 
 
 At 6%, the $1.344M would be worth $22.4M assuming the income stream
 could be capitalized into perpetuity ($1.344/6%). Under something 
like
 Oak suggests (75-year term) direct capitalization would be more
 appropriate than your discounting method, and even that does not
 account for an increase in the income over the 10-years. (a CAP 
rate
 reflects the relationship between a SINGLE estimate of income and
 value, while a YIELD rate is the relationship between a SERIES of
 incomes and value.)
 
 The parking spaces in AP are very valuable but SHOULD not be 
leased in
 my opinion, unless on a short-term basis with kickers and sharing 
of
 revenues.
 
 Getting the money up front would only makes us blow it.






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Re: [AsburyPark] Re: Gannett Co. Inc. has eliminated 206 positions

2008-12-03 Thread MarioAPNJ
I agree, John.
 
And I could go on about the need for serious professional journalism and a  
citizenry with enough media literacy to sort through all media including  
bloggers.
 
Instead I posted my subjective thoughts about some local blogging to the  
politics group here:  http://tinyurl.com/5oukwo
 
 
In a message dated 12/3/2008 9:19:11 A.M. Eastern Standard Time,  
[EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:

Yes!  Let's just have everyone in an information ghetto, where they  only 
read  what they want to hear by people who already agree with  them!  Perfect!

On Dec 3, 2008, at 8:46 AM, justifiedright wrote:

  Yet triCityNews has just passed the 70 page mark.

 Better  business model - better journalism model.

 The future of  journalism is journalists telling you upfront what
 their political  affiliations are.

 It's just more trustworthy.

  The fastest growing news delivery format in America is partisan  blogs.

 The old format of make-believe objectivity is  dying.

**Make your life easier with all your friends, email, and 
favorite sites in one place.  Try it now. 
(http://www.aol.com/?optin=new-dpicid=aolcom40vanityncid=emlcntaolcom0010)


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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread justifiedright
The investor would want a discount for present value.

They aren't going to give you 50 cents now for 50 cents they are 
going to get from a meter 10 years from now, so you can invest it 
and double the money.

They may as well invest it and double their money.



--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
 
 
  The present value of that stream of free cash flows (assuming a 
10 
  year deal with a 10% rate of return to the investor would be 
8.258 
  million.  After 10 years the meters would revert back to the 
town's 
  ownership.  So using those numbers an investor would be willing 
to put 
  up 8.258 million to the town up front for the right to collect 
1.344 
  million per year for 10 years.  The investor gets a 10% return, 
Asbury 
  get's a big up front payment to bridge a budget gap and the 
meters 
  revert back to the town after year 10 so Asbury doesn't mortgage 
its 
  future earnings power.
  
  Dan S.  
   
 
 Your math only holds true for a short period (no reversionary
 interest) and does not account for appreciation (increase in 
parking
 fees).  What do you mean by return? IRR or return ON capital or cap
 rate - a return OF and ON capital.
 
 There is a difference between YIELD (Y) and CAP (R) rates. Because 
R =
 Y - Change in Value, if there is appreciation (increase in value as
 there always is - and would be in this case IF the operator could
 increase parking fees over the 10-year period), Y (yield, discount,
 interest rate or IRR) is almost always higher than the R (cap 
rate).
 
 Thus, if the investor is looking for an IRR of 10%, the cap rate is
 lower. I was going to reply to oaks post that I would think a cap 
rate
 of 6%-8% would be appropriate. Last year it was probably under 5%. 
 
 At 6%, the $1.344M would be worth $22.4M assuming the income stream
 could be capitalized into perpetuity ($1.344/6%). Under something 
like
 Oak suggests (75-year term) direct capitalization would be more
 appropriate than your discounting method, and even that does not
 account for an increase in the income over the 10-years. (a CAP 
rate
 reflects the relationship between a SINGLE estimate of income and
 value, while a YIELD rate is the relationship between a SERIES of
 incomes and value.)
 
 The parking spaces in AP are very valuable but SHOULD not be 
leased in
 my opinion, unless on a short-term basis with kickers and sharing 
of
 revenues.
 
 Getting the money up front would only makes us blow it.






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dsher4
the 10% takes all of that into account.  Think of this as a bond to 
the investor.  Just like people put up a $100 to get a 4% guaranteed 
return from the U.S treasury.  Doubling your money requires some 
risk parameters

--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright 
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 The investor would want a discount for present value.
 
 They aren't going to give you 50 cents now for 50 cents they are 
 going to get from a meter 10 years from now, so you can invest it 
 and double the money.
 
 They may as well invest it and double their money.
 
 
 
 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny dfsavgny@ wrote:
 
  --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
  
  
   The present value of that stream of free cash flows (assuming 
a 
 10 
   year deal with a 10% rate of return to the investor would be 
 8.258 
   million.  After 10 years the meters would revert back to the 
 town's 
   ownership.  So using those numbers an investor would be 
willing 
 to put 
   up 8.258 million to the town up front for the right to collect 
 1.344 
   million per year for 10 years.  The investor gets a 10% 
return, 
 Asbury 
   get's a big up front payment to bridge a budget gap and the 
 meters 
   revert back to the town after year 10 so Asbury doesn't 
mortgage 
 its 
   future earnings power.
   
   Dan S.  

  
  Your math only holds true for a short period (no reversionary
  interest) and does not account for appreciation (increase in 
 parking
  fees).  What do you mean by return? IRR or return ON capital or 
cap
  rate - a return OF and ON capital.
  
  There is a difference between YIELD (Y) and CAP (R) rates. 
Because 
 R =
  Y - Change in Value, if there is appreciation (increase in value 
as
  there always is - and would be in this case IF the operator could
  increase parking fees over the 10-year period), Y (yield, 
discount,
  interest rate or IRR) is almost always higher than the R (cap 
 rate).
  
  Thus, if the investor is looking for an IRR of 10%, the cap rate 
is
  lower. I was going to reply to oaks post that I would think a 
cap 
 rate
  of 6%-8% would be appropriate. Last year it was probably under 
5%. 
  
  At 6%, the $1.344M would be worth $22.4M assuming the income 
stream
  could be capitalized into perpetuity ($1.344/6%). Under 
something 
 like
  Oak suggests (75-year term) direct capitalization would be more
  appropriate than your discounting method, and even that does not
  account for an increase in the income over the 10-years. (a CAP 
 rate
  reflects the relationship between a SINGLE estimate of income and
  value, while a YIELD rate is the relationship between a SERIES of
  incomes and value.)
  
  The parking spaces in AP are very valuable but SHOULD not be 
 leased in
  my opinion, unless on a short-term basis with kickers and 
sharing 
 of
  revenues.
  
  Getting the money up front would only makes us blow it.
 






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dsher4
Or to put really simply, this is a municipal Bond structure.



--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 the 10% takes all of that into account.  Think of this as a bond 
to 
 the investor.  Just like people put up a $100 to get a 4% 
guaranteed 
 return from the U.S treasury.  Doubling your money requires some 
 risk parameters
 
 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright 
 justifiedright@ wrote:
 
  The investor would want a discount for present value.
  
  They aren't going to give you 50 cents now for 50 cents they are 
  going to get from a meter 10 years from now, so you can invest 
it 
  and double the money.
  
  They may as well invest it and double their money.
  
  
  
  --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny dfsavgny@ wrote:
  
   --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
   
   
The present value of that stream of free cash flows 
(assuming 
 a 
  10 
year deal with a 10% rate of return to the investor would be 
  8.258 
million.  After 10 years the meters would revert back to the 
  town's 
ownership.  So using those numbers an investor would be 
 willing 
  to put 
up 8.258 million to the town up front for the right to 
collect 
  1.344 
million per year for 10 years.  The investor gets a 10% 
 return, 
  Asbury 
get's a big up front payment to bridge a budget gap and the 
  meters 
revert back to the town after year 10 so Asbury doesn't 
 mortgage 
  its 
future earnings power.

Dan S.  
 
   
   Your math only holds true for a short period (no reversionary
   interest) and does not account for appreciation (increase in 
  parking
   fees).  What do you mean by return? IRR or return ON capital 
or 
 cap
   rate - a return OF and ON capital.
   
   There is a difference between YIELD (Y) and CAP (R) rates. 
 Because 
  R =
   Y - Change in Value, if there is appreciation (increase in 
value 
 as
   there always is - and would be in this case IF the operator 
could
   increase parking fees over the 10-year period), Y (yield, 
 discount,
   interest rate or IRR) is almost always higher than the R (cap 
  rate).
   
   Thus, if the investor is looking for an IRR of 10%, the cap 
rate 
 is
   lower. I was going to reply to oaks post that I would think a 
 cap 
  rate
   of 6%-8% would be appropriate. Last year it was probably under 
 5%. 
   
   At 6%, the $1.344M would be worth $22.4M assuming the income 
 stream
   could be capitalized into perpetuity ($1.344/6%). Under 
 something 
  like
   Oak suggests (75-year term) direct capitalization would be more
   appropriate than your discounting method, and even that does 
not
   account for an increase in the income over the 10-years. (a 
CAP 
  rate
   reflects the relationship between a SINGLE estimate of income 
and
   value, while a YIELD rate is the relationship between a SERIES 
of
   incomes and value.)
   
   The parking spaces in AP are very valuable but SHOULD not be 
  leased in
   my opinion, unless on a short-term basis with kickers and 
 sharing 
  of
   revenues.
   
   Getting the money up front would only makes us blow it.
  
 






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread justifiedright
Yea I went back and read your post again and I think I see where you 
put in the present value - within the difference between the 13+ 
million and the 8+ million.

Very interesting stuff and thanks for posting it.


--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Or to put really simply, this is a municipal Bond structure.
 
 
 
 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
 
  the 10% takes all of that into account.  Think of this as a bond 
 to 
  the investor.  Just like people put up a $100 to get a 4% 
 guaranteed 
  return from the U.S treasury.  Doubling your money requires some 
  risk parameters
  
  --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright 
  justifiedright@ wrote:
  
   The investor would want a discount for present value.
   
   They aren't going to give you 50 cents now for 50 cents they 
are 
   going to get from a meter 10 years from now, so you can invest 
 it 
   and double the money.
   
   They may as well invest it and double their money.
   
   
   
   --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny dfsavgny@ 
wrote:
   
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:


 The present value of that stream of free cash flows 
 (assuming 
  a 
   10 
 year deal with a 10% rate of return to the investor would 
be 
   8.258 
 million.  After 10 years the meters would revert back to 
the 
   town's 
 ownership.  So using those numbers an investor would be 
  willing 
   to put 
 up 8.258 million to the town up front for the right to 
 collect 
   1.344 
 million per year for 10 years.  The investor gets a 10% 
  return, 
   Asbury 
 get's a big up front payment to bridge a budget gap and 
the 
   meters 
 revert back to the town after year 10 so Asbury doesn't 
  mortgage 
   its 
 future earnings power.
 
 Dan S.  
  

Your math only holds true for a short period (no reversionary
interest) and does not account for appreciation (increase in 
   parking
fees).  What do you mean by return? IRR or return ON capital 
 or 
  cap
rate - a return OF and ON capital.

There is a difference between YIELD (Y) and CAP (R) rates. 
  Because 
   R =
Y - Change in Value, if there is appreciation (increase in 
 value 
  as
there always is - and would be in this case IF the operator 
 could
increase parking fees over the 10-year period), Y (yield, 
  discount,
interest rate or IRR) is almost always higher than the R 
(cap 
   rate).

Thus, if the investor is looking for an IRR of 10%, the cap 
 rate 
  is
lower. I was going to reply to oaks post that I would think 
a 
  cap 
   rate
of 6%-8% would be appropriate. Last year it was probably 
under 
  5%. 

At 6%, the $1.344M would be worth $22.4M assuming the income 
  stream
could be capitalized into perpetuity ($1.344/6%). Under 
  something 
   like
Oak suggests (75-year term) direct capitalization would be 
more
appropriate than your discounting method, and even that does 
 not
account for an increase in the income over the 10-years. (a 
 CAP 
   rate
reflects the relationship between a SINGLE estimate of 
income 
 and
value, while a YIELD rate is the relationship between a 
SERIES 
 of
incomes and value.)

The parking spaces in AP are very valuable but SHOULD not be 
   leased in
my opinion, unless on a short-term basis with kickers and 
  sharing 
   of
revenues.

Getting the money up front would only makes us blow it.
   
  
 






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dfsavgny
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 
 Return in this instance is IRR but takes into account the time value 
 of money. 

Always does.

 Remember that to the investor the initial returns are 
 negative but the out year returns are very postive but averaged out 
 equates to 10%.  Or put another way, it takes about 6 years for the 
 investor to break even but then years 6-10 are all gravy but the 
 overall IRR is 10% (again no leverage is used)
 
 I didn't use a cap rate because the investor has no ownership at the 
 end of a term.

Agreed, 10-year term too short for perpetuity.

  That is the same reason i didn't include change in 
 value because that will benefit the town, not the investor.


Change in value means change in income and value. Parking rates stay
the same for 10 years? Maybe.

 
 The only snafu is that the town would probably have to guarantee the 
 payment stream because no investor in their right mind would sign up 
 such a deal without collateral to fall back on.

Risk. That's why they get a 10% return - the return includes what
perceived risk there is. If the city guarantees the level of parking
fees then the IRR should be the city's credit rating (let's not go
there). All the city has to guarantee is the lessee's right to collect
the parking fees during the lease period.

 This is where a lot of the interesting scenario's come in but 
 requires the town to not screw it up.  The town could guarantee a 
 specific payment but then keep any overages.  The investor has a 
 guaranteed income stream and the town gets the money's over a 
 certain level.  The rub is that you are making a bet that 
 redevelopment continues, the meters bring in the forecasted 
 revenues and that is probably just too dicey considering the town's 
 current situation.  I wonder if the state would work with the town 
 so Asbury can get off the dole with some performance metrics 
 outlined to make sure redevelopment continues on course.  I'm just 
 free associating here so feel free to add if anyone has any other 
 ideas.  

Since we already incurred the cost of the meters, and enforce the
regs, I think it would be foolish to lease them out. If we had not put
them in yet, then part of the lease would be the obligation of the
lessee to install the meters and pay for the enforcement and
collection of the fees. Sort of like a laundry contract in an
apartment building.





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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dfsavgny
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 The investor would want a discount for present value.
 
 They aren't going to give you 50 cents now for 50 cents they are 
 going to get from a meter 10 years from now, so you can invest it 
 and double the money.
 
 They may as well invest it and double their money.
 

Stick to the law. A yield or cap rate converts future dollars to
present value.






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dsher4
All good points.  At the risk of being incestuous perhaps they 
should approach MM about this setup.  That way it is in each parties 
best interest to make sure the area continues to improve.  Maybe 
that is insanity but thought i'd throw it out there

--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
 
  
  Return in this instance is IRR but takes into account the time 
value 
  of money. 
 
 Always does.
 
  Remember that to the investor the initial returns are 
  negative but the out year returns are very postive but averaged 
out 
  equates to 10%.  Or put another way, it takes about 6 years for 
the 
  investor to break even but then years 6-10 are all gravy but the 
  overall IRR is 10% (again no leverage is used)
  
  I didn't use a cap rate because the investor has no ownership at 
the 
  end of a term.
 
 Agreed, 10-year term too short for perpetuity.
 
   That is the same reason i didn't include change in 
  value because that will benefit the town, not the investor.
 
 
 Change in value means change in income and value. Parking rates 
stay
 the same for 10 years? Maybe.
 
  
  The only snafu is that the town would probably have to guarantee 
the 
  payment stream because no investor in their right mind would 
sign up 
  such a deal without collateral to fall back on.
 
 Risk. That's why they get a 10% return - the return includes what
 perceived risk there is. If the city guarantees the level of 
parking
 fees then the IRR should be the city's credit rating (let's not go
 there). All the city has to guarantee is the lessee's right to 
collect
 the parking fees during the lease period.
 
  This is where a lot of the interesting scenario's come in but 
  requires the town to not screw it up.  The town could 
guarantee a 
  specific payment but then keep any overages.  The investor has a 
  guaranteed income stream and the town gets the money's over a 
  certain level.  The rub is that you are making a bet that 
  redevelopment continues, the meters bring in the forecasted 
  revenues and that is probably just too dicey considering the 
town's 
  current situation.  I wonder if the state would work with the 
town 
  so Asbury can get off the dole with some performance metrics 
  outlined to make sure redevelopment continues on course.  I'm 
just 
  free associating here so feel free to add if anyone has any 
other 
  ideas.  
 
 Since we already incurred the cost of the meters, and enforce the
 regs, I think it would be foolish to lease them out. If we had not 
put
 them in yet, then part of the lease would be the obligation of the
 lessee to install the meters and pay for the enforcement and
 collection of the fees. Sort of like a laundry contract in an
 apartment building.






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread justifiedright
So if I put 8.3 million in a safe investment vehicle with 5% 
compounded annually, how much would I have at the end of 10 years?




--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
 justifiedright@ wrote:
 
  The investor would want a discount for present value.
  
  They aren't going to give you 50 cents now for 50 cents they are 
  going to get from a meter 10 years from now, so you can invest 
it 
  and double the money.
  
  They may as well invest it and double their money.
  
 
 Stick to the law. A yield or cap rate converts future dollars to
 present value.






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dsher4
$13,519,825 and 40 cents


--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright 
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 So if I put 8.3 million in a safe investment vehicle with 5% 
 compounded annually, how much would I have at the end of 10 years?
 
 
 
 
 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny dfsavgny@ wrote:
 
  --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
  justifiedright@ wrote:
  
   The investor would want a discount for present value.
   
   They aren't going to give you 50 cents now for 50 cents they 
are 
   going to get from a meter 10 years from now, so you can invest 
 it 
   and double the money.
   
   They may as well invest it and double their money.
   
  
  Stick to the law. A yield or cap rate converts future dollars to
  present value.
 






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread justifiedright
I believe that shows that under the example we have been dealing 
with today, the amount calculated for present value and rate of 
return is off by a great deal if we are going to attract an investor 
for a ten year period.

As the below number shows, he can throw it all in a nice safe CD and 
make more.



--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 $13,519,825 and 40 cents
 
 
 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright 
 justifiedright@ wrote:
 
  So if I put 8.3 million in a safe investment vehicle with 5% 
  compounded annually, how much would I have at the end of 10 
years?
  
  
  
  
  --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny dfsavgny@ wrote:
  
   --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
   justifiedright@ wrote:
   
The investor would want a discount for present value.

They aren't going to give you 50 cents now for 50 cents they 
 are 
going to get from a meter 10 years from now, so you can 
invest 
  it 
and double the money.

They may as well invest it and double their money.

   
   Stick to the law. A yield or cap rate converts future dollars 
to
   present value.
  
 






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dsher4
Not necessarily.  
Municipal bonds are tax free for one
Secondly, we just randomly picked a 10% return.  We could increase 
the return to 12% for example. 
Third the paramaters around a bond can have infinite scenario's.  
example, the investor and town could split the revenues over a  
certain threshold.  
There are many possibilities

--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright 
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 I believe that shows that under the example we have been dealing 
 with today, the amount calculated for present value and rate of 
 return is off by a great deal if we are going to attract an 
investor 
 for a ten year period.
 
 As the below number shows, he can throw it all in a nice safe CD 
and 
 make more.
 
 
 
 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
 
  $13,519,825 and 40 cents
  
  
  --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright 
  justifiedright@ wrote:
  
   So if I put 8.3 million in a safe investment vehicle with 5% 
   compounded annually, how much would I have at the end of 10 
 years?
   
   
   
   
   --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny dfsavgny@ 
wrote:
   
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
justifiedright@ wrote:

 The investor would want a discount for present value.
 
 They aren't going to give you 50 cents now for 50 cents 
they 
  are 
 going to get from a meter 10 years from now, so you can 
 invest 
   it 
 and double the money.
 
 They may as well invest it and double their money.
 

Stick to the law. A yield or cap rate converts future 
dollars 
 to
present value.
   
  
 






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dfsavgny
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 So if I put 8.3 million in a safe investment vehicle with 5% 
 compounded annually, how much would I have at the end of 10 years?
 

$ amount X (1 + i)^n

 i = rate of interest
 n = compounding periods

Let's you find the compound interest factor

The answer using your numbers

$8.3M X (1 +5%)^10
$8.3M X 1.628895

$13.519825M

Go in reverse. What is the present value of $13.519825 to be received
in 10 years assuming a 5% interest rate.

Present value factor is reciprocal 1/(1+i)^n

$13.519825M X 1/(1+5%)^10
$13.519825M X .613913 = $8.3M






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread justifiedright
That's right - which is why I don't think the posts have been 
correct in calling the deal as presented a 10% rate of return to the 
investor.  




--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
 justifiedright@ wrote:
 
  So if I put 8.3 million in a safe investment vehicle with 5% 
  compounded annually, how much would I have at the end of 10 
years?
  
 
 $ amount X (1 + i)^n
 
  i = rate of interest
  n = compounding periods
 
 Let's you find the compound interest factor
 
 The answer using your numbers
 
 $8.3M X (1 +5%)^10
 $8.3M X 1.628895
 
 $13.519825M
 
 Go in reverse. What is the present value of $13.519825 to be 
received
 in 10 years assuming a 5% interest rate.
 
 Present value factor is reciprocal 1/(1+i)^n
 
 $13.519825M X 1/(1+5%)^10
 $13.519825M X .613913 = $8.3M






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread justifiedright
The bank down the street from me is closer to 5.


--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
 justifiedright@ wrote:
 
  I believe that shows that under the example we have been dealing 
  with today, the amount calculated for present value and rate of 
  return is off by a great deal if we are going to attract an 
investor 
  for a ten year period.
  
  As the below number shows, he can throw it all in a nice safe CD 
and 
  make more.
 
 Current national avg for a 5-year cd is 3.77%. No 10-year cd's. No
 chance of an increase in the investment unlike the parking fees or 
any
 other flexible rent stream you invest in.






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dfsavgny
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 I believe that shows that under the example we have been dealing 
 with today, the amount calculated for present value and rate of 
 return is off by a great deal if we are going to attract an investor 
 for a ten year period.
 
 As the below number shows, he can throw it all in a nice safe CD and 
 make more.

Current national avg for a 5-year cd is 3.77%. No 10-year cd's. No
chance of an increase in the investment unlike the parking fees or any
other flexible rent stream you invest in.






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dfsavgny
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 That's right - which is why I don't think the posts have been 
 correct in calling the deal as presented a 10% rate of return to the 
 investor.  


The math below proves its 10%. That was a given by you. Any rate would
work back and forward. Just giving you the math to figure it for yourself.





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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dsher4
OK hold on - let me explain

one example is 8.3 million tied up for 10 years. your 5% example.  
you get 5% on 8.3 each year or $415,000

The example i gave is 8.3 million up front like your example, but 
you receive 1.34 million each year that you can then re-invest in 
something else. 

SO, it is a better stream of cash flows 

Trust me on this one, i do this for a living 




--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright 
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 That's right - which is why I don't think the posts have been 
 correct in calling the deal as presented a 10% rate of return to 
the 
 investor.  
 
 
 
 
 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny dfsavgny@ wrote:
 
  --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
  justifiedright@ wrote:
  
   So if I put 8.3 million in a safe investment vehicle with 5% 
   compounded annually, how much would I have at the end of 10 
 years?
   
  
  $ amount X (1 + i)^n
  
   i = rate of interest
   n = compounding periods
  
  Let's you find the compound interest factor
  
  The answer using your numbers
  
  $8.3M X (1 +5%)^10
  $8.3M X 1.628895
  
  $13.519825M
  
  Go in reverse. What is the present value of $13.519825 to be 
 received
  in 10 years assuming a 5% interest rate.
  
  Present value factor is reciprocal 1/(1+i)^n
  
  $13.519825M X 1/(1+5%)^10
  $13.519825M X .613913 = $8.3M
 






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dfsavgny
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 That's right - which is why I don't think the posts have been 
 correct in calling the deal as presented a 10% rate of return to the 
 investor.  


Your example used 5%. All I was doing is showing you the math. It
proves out back and forth whatever rate you use.





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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread justifiedright
2 plus 2 is still 4 no matter what you do or don't do for a living.

I've had to put together many deals involving the present value of 
dollars received later (that's me sticking to the law as the other 
Dan said - he just forgot to inquire what type of law).

It doesn't make a bit of difference what either of us do or how many 
times we've done it.

2 plus 2 still has to equal 4.

You are not going to get an investor to hand you 8.3 million for the 
right to (maybe) receive 13.3 million over 10 years, when he can 
safely make the same money in a CD in the same period of time with 
no risk and no administration costs.

In real world terms, Asbury Park would have to ask for a great deal 
less than 8.3 million.


--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 OK hold on - let me explain
 
 one example is 8.3 million tied up for 10 years. your 5% example.  
 you get 5% on 8.3 each year or $415,000
 
 The example i gave is 8.3 million up front like your example, but 
 you receive 1.34 million each year that you can then re-invest in 
 something else. 
 
 SO, it is a better stream of cash flows 
 
 Trust me on this one, i do this for a living 
 
 
 
 
 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright 
 justifiedright@ wrote:
 
  That's right - which is why I don't think the posts have been 
  correct in calling the deal as presented a 10% rate of return to 
 the 
  investor.  
  
  
  
  
  --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny dfsavgny@ wrote:
  
   --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
   justifiedright@ wrote:
   
So if I put 8.3 million in a safe investment vehicle with 5% 
compounded annually, how much would I have at the end of 10 
  years?

   
   $ amount X (1 + i)^n
   
i = rate of interest
n = compounding periods
   
   Let's you find the compound interest factor
   
   The answer using your numbers
   
   $8.3M X (1 +5%)^10
   $8.3M X 1.628895
   
   $13.519825M
   
   Go in reverse. What is the present value of $13.519825 to be 
  received
   in 10 years assuming a 5% interest rate.
   
   Present value factor is reciprocal 1/(1+i)^n
   
   $13.519825M X 1/(1+5%)^10
   $13.519825M X .613913 = $8.3M
  
 






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread oakdorf
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright 
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 2 plus 2 is still 4 no matter what you do or don't do for a living.
  You are not going to get an investor to hand you 8.3 million for 
the 
 right to (maybe) receive 13.3 million over 10 years, 

Ever go to AC? Or the track?

I've only seen one deal in NYC in our office over $100m. 

No way. No one will ever buy it (actaully lease it) Impoosible.

Guess what. Someone did buy it. Then they resold double the money.

Never guess how someone sees an investment.

Instead of guessing what it's worth, could be worth and what it's 
worth to you and me in our little world of cd's and bonds, let a 
professional parking company come in and make a proposal.

And no need to spend $100k to do a study or hire a consultant. Just 
invite a couple people in and let them make a presentation. It's 
their job to study the city as is today and predict the future.

Those parking spaces are just spread out over a given area. No ramps, 
no walls but the POTENTIAL to generate a stream of income-  just like 
buying a building that holds parking spaces. $25k a spot is probbly 
cheaper then buying a parking garage...

That is, if you can find a parking garage for sale under $25k per 
spot. 

Do it for 75 or 50, there's kicker's in the contracts that would 
adjust so no one feels left out. 

In 75 years I rally don't care what happens. Cars should be electric 
by then (ford just figured it out) or the hell knows what.

And dan used the word blow it. I used the term piss it away.

Use it for severance pay.




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[AsburyPark] City Council Meetings Tonight - Agendas

2008-12-03 Thread jwkeady
Friends of Asbury Park:

I am writing to inform you that the Asbury Park City Council will be 
meeting today, Wednesday, December 3, 2008. The Executive Session 
begins at 5pm, however this is not open to the public. The Workshop 
Session begins at 6pm and the Regular Meeting begins at 7pm, these 
are both open to the public. I have included the meeting agendas 
below and I encourage you to attend.

I hope this finds you well.

Peace,

James W. Keady, Councilman
City of Asbury Park, NJ

ASBURY PARK CITY COUNCIL
EXECUTIVE SESSION MEETING AGENDA
DECEMBER 3, 2008 – 5PM
CLOSED TO THE PUBLIC

I. Contract Negotiations
a.Subsequent Redevelopers Agreement with Madison–Asbury Retail, LLC 
(Hastie) 

II. Litigation
a. Madison-Asbury Retail, LLC vs. City of Asbury Park
b. Six Opening Avenue – Eminent Domain (Aaron)  
c. Asbury Shores (Hastie/Aaron)
d. Teicher Update (Aaron)
e. First Avenue Realty vs. City of Asbury Park 213-215 First Ave.
 
III. Personnel 
a. Annual Professional Appointments
b. Labor-Bargaining Issues


ASBURY PARK CITY COUNCIL
WORKSHOP SESSION MEETING AGENDA
DECEMBER 3, 2008 – 6PM
OPEN TO THE PUBLIC

I. REVIEW OF REGULAR AGENDA ITEMS

II. ITEMS PRESENTED BY DONALD SAMMET, REDEVELOPMENT  PLANNING 
DIRECTOR 
1. BLUESTONE PROTECTION
2. 711 BANGS AVENUE (PARKING IN BUSINESS DISTRICT)

III. PAL BOXING FACILITY LOCATED ON SECOND FLOOR OF PUBLIC 
MAINTENANCE BUILDING - PAUL MCEVILY, INTERFAITH NEIGHBORS

IV. BOARDS/COMMISSIONS APPOINTMENTS

V. SPECIAL EVENT APPLICATIONS
1.CHECK-MATE
ANNUAL CANDLELIGHT WALK 
END AT 503 ASBURY AVE.  
12/01

2.MADISON MARQUETTE 
MUSICAL PERFORMANCES
BOARDWALK   
11/28  - 12/28  

VI. MATTERS TO BE INTRODUCED BY CITY COUNCIL

VII. MATTERS TO BE INTRODUCED BY CITY ATTORNEY

VIII. MATTERS TO BE INTRODUCED BY CITY MANAGER

IX. MATTERS TO BE INTRODUCED BY ASSISTANT CITY MANAGER


ASBURY PARK CITY COUNCIL
REGULAR PUBLIC MEETING AGENDA
DECEMBER 3, 2008 - 7PM
OPEN TO THE PUBLIC

SILENT PRAYER/MOMENT OF REFLECTION

SALUTE TO THE FLAGANNOUNCEMENT BY MAYOR SANDERS – as to compliance 
with Open Public Meetings Act, Chapter 231, P.L. 1975 ,that 
adequate notice of this meeting has been provided in the following 
manner: The Annual Notice was forwarded to the Asbury Park Press, The 
Coaster, and Star Ledger on December 27, 2007, and posted on the City 
bulletin board the same date. All notices are on file with the City 
Clerk.

1. PUBLIC PARTICIPATION

2. APPROVAL OF MINUTES: RM 11/12/08 (2 B submitted). 

3. PAYROLL RESOLUTION:

4. BILL RESOLUTION + Inservco

5. APPLICATIONS/LIQUOR LICENSES:
(a) Membership – NJ Firemen's Assoc. – Carney Conklin
(b) Amend Bingo – Post #346 – add workers
(c) Liquor license transfer – The Deep –from AP Ventures to Asbury 
Restaurant IV – 1000 Ocean Avenue. 

6. RESOLUTIONS:
(a) Appointments/Re-appointments. 
(b) Senior Center – temporary rental agreement.
(c) Items from Tax Collector – 700 Mattison Avenue.
(d) Item of revenue for budget - $81,666.30
(e) Item of revenue for budget - $68,044.00
(f) Retain Services – Shore Point Architecture - $7,900.
(g) Retain services – Shore Point Architecture - $15,833.
(h) Budget Transfer.
(i) Purchase Environmental testing equip - $6,250.00
(j) Retain Services – Brilliant Lewis Environmental Services –
Firehouse - $4,695.00


7. ORDINANCES: Introduction –
(a) Traffic Signal – Kingsley and Third Avenue.
(b) Traffic Signal – Kingsley and Seventh Avenue.

ORDINANCES: Public Hearing – Advertised The Coaster:
(a) 11/6 – Re: Vacating/Dedicating portion of Block 222.
(b) 11/13 – Replacing traffic signals on Grand Avenue with Stop Signs
(c) 11/20 – Re: permit balconettes at 205-09 Bond St.

8. DECISION ON BIDS: Received 11/14/08:
(a). Sludge Transport and Disposal.
(b) Supply Liquid Sodium Hypochlorite.
(c) To be received 12/1/08 – Concrete and Sidewalk Improvements – 
Southwest. 






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dfsavgny
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 2 plus 2 is still 4 no matter what you do or don't do for a living.
 
 I've had to put together many deals involving the present value of 
 dollars received later (that's me sticking to the law as the other 
 Dan said - he just forgot to inquire what type of law).
 
 It doesn't make a bit of difference what either of us do or how many 
 times we've done it.
 
 2 plus 2 still has to equal 4.
 
 You are not going to get an investor to hand you 8.3 million for the 
 right to (maybe) receive 13.3 million over 10 years, when he can 
 safely make the same money in a CD in the same period of time with 
 no risk and no administration costs.
 
 In real world terms, Asbury Park would have to ask for a great deal 
 less than 8.3 million.


You are going to have to start doing competency hearings soon. Your
numbers are based upon 5%. Dan S (the other one) used 10% return and
that would correlate into $21.538M in 10 years. But this is not
exactly Dan's example. It is what you set up in your question.  
 
 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
 
  OK hold on - let me explain
  
  one example is 8.3 million tied up for 10 years. your 5% example.  
  you get 5% on 8.3 each year or $415,000
  
  The example i gave is 8.3 million up front like your example, but 
  you receive 1.34 million each year that you can then re-invest in 
  something else. 
  
  SO, it is a better stream of cash flows 
  
  Trust me on this one, i do this for a living 
  
  
  
  
  --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright 
  justifiedright@ wrote:
  
   That's right - which is why I don't think the posts have been 
   correct in calling the deal as presented a 10% rate of return to 
  the 
   investor.  
   
   
   
   
   --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny dfsavgny@ wrote:
   
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
justifiedright@ wrote:

 So if I put 8.3 million in a safe investment vehicle with 5% 
 compounded annually, how much would I have at the end of 10 
   years?
 

$ amount X (1 + i)^n

 i = rate of interest
 n = compounding periods

Let's you find the compound interest factor

The answer using your numbers

$8.3M X (1 +5%)^10
$8.3M X 1.628895

$13.519825M

Go in reverse. What is the present value of $13.519825 to be 
   received
in 10 years assuming a 5% interest rate.

Present value factor is reciprocal 1/(1+i)^n

$13.519825M X 1/(1+5%)^10
$13.519825M X .613913 = $8.3M
   
  
 






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dfsavgny
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, oakdorf [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 
 I have an idea to add some revenues to those meters.

Sell ads on them.






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread oakdorf
..thanks to both dan's, werner and jr...

here's another take from an old article:


Walk along the water and see what an American beach resort once was, 
and what it can become. A crumbling casino teeters on stilts over the 
sand. Hollow shells of defunct motels lie like discarded crab casings, 
eroding in the salt air. A carousel sits idle by the boardwalk. 
Beachside avenues are lined with rusted parking meters; they haven't 
seen a quarter since a quarter was a dime.




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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread oakdorf
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, oakdorf [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:



and you can pick up the phone and talk to the muni's who have leased 
their spaces to a pro company and ask how's it going..?

Or take the bull by the horns and run your own meters and figure it 
out. If the current meters are difficult, then stick single pole or 
more stations or smaller meter zones.

I have an idea to add some revenues to those meters.


And charge for the meters in the zone. People will still come. 

They always did.




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[AsburyPark] Re: City Council Meetings Tonight - Agendas

2008-12-03 Thread dfsavgny
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, jwkeady [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 II. Litigation
 a. Madison-Asbury Retail, LLC vs. City of Asbury Park

Honeymoon is over I guess.






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[AsburyPark] Re: City Council Meetings Tonight - Agendas

2008-12-03 Thread dfsavgny
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, jwkeady [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:


 ORDINANCES: Public Hearing – Advertised The Coaster:
 (a) 11/6 – Re: Vacating/Dedicating portion of Block 222.


This is the Triangle/townhouses folks.






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[AsburyPark] Re: City Council Meetings Tonight - Agendas

2008-12-03 Thread oakdorf
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, jwkeady james.keady@ wrote:
 
  II. Litigation
  a. Madison-Asbury Retail, LLC vs. City of Asbury Park
 
 Honeymoon is over I guess.


That's why you need parking meter revenues, especially at night.

1. Pay for litigiation
2. Pay for police
3. Pay for Fire dept.

anytime there was an event in AP - - at CH or Paramount, the promoter 
paid a fee in addition to rental. Find an old contract. 

Tax ticket sales over $25. 

2.5%






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread oakdorf
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, oakdorf oakdorf@ wrote:
 
  
  I have an idea to add some revenues to those meters.
 
 Sell ads on them.


not a bad idea, but not it.




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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread justifiedright
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 You are going to have to start doing competency hearings soon. Your
 numbers are based upon 5%. Dan S (the other one) used 10% return and
 that would correlate into $21.538M in 10 years. But this is not
 exactly Dan's example. It is what you set up in your question.  

No, I used what the other Dan S set up.

Here are his assumptions from his post number 43285:

The present value of that stream of free cash flows (assuming a 10
year deal with a 10% rate of return to the investor would be 8.258
million. After 10 years the meters would revert back to the town's
ownership. So using those numbers an investor would be willing to put
up 8.258 million to the town up front for the right to collect 1.344
million per year for 10 years.


That's when I questioned his calculation of present value.  

You said it was already in there.

I believe his calculation to be off by a lot. 

My proof is that the investor could put the 8.3 million in a CD at 5%
for the same 10 years and get to the same 13.4 million.

There is no way in the real world you can convince an investor that
the assumptions he used equates to a 10% rate of return.

I believe the problem is using 8.3 million as the present value.

Way too high.

Right back to my original point.





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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread oakdorf
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:



and most deals, to justify costs, raise the rate to what it's worth.

Cape may:

With the following exceptions, parking meters are in effect May 1 to 
October 31, every day, from 10:00 AM to 10:00 PM. All meters are 25 
cents per fifteen minutes and stand-aolne meters only accept 
quarters. Multi-meters also accept credit cards. Change is available 
from several businesses and at beach tag sales booths, during the 
beach season. The City  provides a five (5) minute grace period on 
all meters, before an overtime violation occurs.


1. Marketing: 25 cents per 15 minutes That eqauls $1.00 per hour.
2. Marketing: The city provides a five minute grace period.
3. Limited hours 10 am to 10 pm. AP should go into 2 am. in the zone. 
that's when the bars are crowded and the most services of the police 
are required. Pay for it.






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dfsavgny
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

Oy vey!

 
 No, I used what the other Dan S set up.
 
 Here are his assumptions from his post number 43285:
 
 The present value of that stream of free cash flows (assuming a 10
 year deal with a 10% rate of return to the investor would be 8.258
 million.

10% (not 5% like you said)

 After 10 years the meters would revert back to the town's
 ownership. So using those numbers an investor would be willing to put
 up 8.258 million to the town up front for the right to collect 1.344
 million per year for 10 years.


I reiterate, $8.3M grows to $13M+ in 10 years at 5% (your rate)

$8.3M grows to $21M+ in 10 years at 10% (Dan's rate)

What is the problem?
  





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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread justifiedright
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
 justifiedright@ wrote:
 
 Oy vey!
 
  
  No, I used what the other Dan S set up.
  
  Here are his assumptions from his post number 43285:
  
  The present value of that stream of free cash flows (assuming a 10
  year deal with a 10% rate of return to the investor would be 8.258
  million.
 
 10% (not 5% like you said)
 
  After 10 years the meters would revert back to the town's
  ownership. So using those numbers an investor would be willing to put
  up 8.258 million to the town up front for the right to collect 1.344
  million per year for 10 years.
 
 
 I reiterate, $8.3M grows to $13M+ in 10 years at 5% (your rate)
 
 $8.3M grows to $21M+ in 10 years at 10% (Dan's rate)
 
 What is the problem?



The problem is he claims they will see only 13.4 million, not the 21
million you bring up.

That's why I'm pointing out that his assumption of a 10% rate of
return is wrong.

Back to the beginning again:  To get to a 10% rate of return, the
present value rate will have to be dropped considerably in his
assumptions.

Or sell it at 5% - but since that is what you can get in a CD, you
won't sell it to anyone.
 




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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dsher4
Geez, i went to a meeting for an hour and here is where we are.  

One major mistake is being made in these calculations.  

10% grows to 21.5 million if you never take the money out and you 
leave it compounding for all ten years.  My example has a payout 
each and every year and that money does not get re-invested.  It is 
the difference between the return when DISTRIBUTED in a stream over 
time versus when it is left alone for 10 years.  The fact that you 
have access to the cash in each and every year is different than the 
first example.  Make Sense?



--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
 justifiedright@ wrote:
 
 Oy vey!
 
  
  No, I used what the other Dan S set up.
  
  Here are his assumptions from his post number 43285:
  
  The present value of that stream of free cash flows (assuming a 
10
  year deal with a 10% rate of return to the investor would be 
8.258
  million.
 
 10% (not 5% like you said)
 
  After 10 years the meters would revert back to the town's
  ownership. So using those numbers an investor would be willing 
to put
  up 8.258 million to the town up front for the right to collect 
1.344
  million per year for 10 years.
 
 
 I reiterate, $8.3M grows to $13M+ in 10 years at 5% (your rate)
 
 $8.3M grows to $21M+ in 10 years at 10% (Dan's rate)
 
 What is the problem?






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dfsavgny
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Geez, i went to a meeting for an hour and here is where we are.  
 
 One major mistake is being made in these calculations.  
 
And I do not think you ever said anything about $13M+ originally.
Again it was Tom's question and example of what $8.3M would be worth
in 10 years at 5%.






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dsher4
That is correct. If you reinvested the 1.4 million  received every 
year back into an investment that yielded 10% you would get the 20+ 
million.


--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
 
  Geez, i went to a meeting for an hour and here is where we are.  
  
  One major mistake is being made in these calculations.  
  
  10% grows to 21.5 million if you never take the money out and 
you 
  leave it compounding for all ten years.  My example has a payout 
  each and every year and that money does not get re-invested.  It 
is 
  the difference between the return when DISTRIBUTED in a stream 
over 
  time versus when it is left alone for 10 years.  The fact that 
you 
  have access to the cash in each and every year is different than 
the 
  first example.  Make Sense?
  
 I know that, which is why I posted interest on interest to you 
before
 and why I said it what Tom was saying was not equal to what you 
set up
 (although as you implied the cash flow taken each year is 
available to
 be reinvested each year and presumably at the same required IRR).






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dsher4
So 2+2 = 4 and it does matter what i do   :) 
Sorry but i had to, that one hurt my feelings.  Its bad enough we 
are in a bear  market but then you tell me im a moron, hurts my 
ego :)


--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 That is correct. If you reinvested the 1.4 million  received every 
 year back into an investment that yielded 10% you would get the 
20+ 
 million.
 
 
 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny dfsavgny@ wrote:
 
  --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
  
   Geez, i went to a meeting for an hour and here is where we 
are.  
   
   One major mistake is being made in these calculations.  
   
   10% grows to 21.5 million if you never take the money out and 
 you 
   leave it compounding for all ten years.  My example has a 
payout 
   each and every year and that money does not get re-invested.  
It 
 is 
   the difference between the return when DISTRIBUTED in a stream 
 over 
   time versus when it is left alone for 10 years.  The fact that 
 you 
   have access to the cash in each and every year is different 
than 
 the 
   first example.  Make Sense?
   
  I know that, which is why I posted interest on interest to you 
 before
  and why I said it what Tom was saying was not equal to what you 
 set up
  (although as you implied the cash flow taken each year is 
 available to
  be reinvested each year and presumably at the same required IRR).
 






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread justifiedright
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Geez, i went to a meeting for an hour and here is where we are.  
 
 One major mistake is being made in these calculations.  
 
 10% grows to 21.5 million if you never take the money out and you 
 leave it compounding for all ten years.  My example has a payout 
 each and every year and that money does not get re-invested.  It is 
 the difference between the return when DISTRIBUTED in a stream over 
 time versus when it is left alone for 10 years.  The fact that you 
 have access to the cash in each and every year is different than the 
 first example.  Make Sense?

That means the 50 cents you realize in year 1 of the deal is worth 10x
more than the 50 cents you realize in year 10, because you can
re-invest it for an additional 10 years.

So if you took the 1.3 million and bought a CD each year at 5%, would
you make it up to the 21 million by the time you were done?

I think you might fall short. 




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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread oakdorf
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Geez, i went to a meeting for an hour and here is where we are.  
 
 One major mistake is being made in these calculations.  


The best way to sum it up, those spaces are worth money - either to the 
city of Asbury Park or to a parking management investment fund.

There's all different arguments about the value of a business that 
generates sales or the value of income producing property.

Yes, every guy that calls up wants a 10% return. So do I. Actaully, if 
you speak to some harcore investors, they will ask why do only want a 
10% return, what, you have no ambition...? But that was BEFORE the 
stock market tanked...




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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread justifiedright
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 And I do not think you ever said anything about $13M+ originally.
 Again it was Tom's question and example of what $8.3M would be worth
 in 10 years at 5%.

Dan how many times do I have to re-post his assumptions to convince
you that the $13M+ was his and not mine?

Here it is again.  Please read the last line:

Here are his assumptions from his post number 43285:

The present value of that stream of free cash flows (assuming a 10
year deal with a 10% rate of return to the investor would be 8.258
million. After 10 years the meters would revert back to the town's
ownership. So using those numbers an investor would be willing to put
up 8.258 million to the town up front for the right to collect 1.344
million per year for 10 years.


Isn't 1.34 million per year times 10 years 13.4 million?

That's his numbers - not mine.







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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dsher4
Not exactly.
the 50 cents you receive in year one can be reinvestd at 10% for 9 
years.  So that grows to $1.17.  Then you receive another fifty cents 
in year two and that grows for 8 years to $1.07.  Etc.. etc.


 
 That means the 50 cents you realize in year 1 of the deal is worth 
10x
 more than the 50 cents you realize in year 10, because you can
 re-invest it for an additional 10 years.
 
 So if you took the 1.3 million and bought a CD each year at 5%, would
 you make it up to the 21 million by the time you were done?
 
 I think you might fall short.






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dsher4
You can't just multiply 1.34 million by 10 because that assumes you 
never re-invest each years payout.  


--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright 
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny dfsavgny@ wrote:
 
  And I do not think you ever said anything about $13M+ originally.
  Again it was Tom's question and example of what $8.3M would be 
worth
  in 10 years at 5%.
 
 Dan how many times do I have to re-post his assumptions to convince
 you that the $13M+ was his and not mine?
 
 Here it is again.  Please read the last line:
 
 Here are his assumptions from his post number 43285:
 
 The present value of that stream of free cash flows (assuming a 10
 year deal with a 10% rate of return to the investor would be 8.258
 million. After 10 years the meters would revert back to the town's
 ownership. So using those numbers an investor would be willing to 
put
 up 8.258 million to the town up front for the right to collect 
1.344
 million per year for 10 years.
 
 
 Isn't 1.34 million per year times 10 years 13.4 million?
 
 That's his numbers - not mine.






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread justifiedright
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 So 2+2 = 4 and it does matter what i do   :) 
 Sorry but i had to, that one hurt my feelings.  Its bad enough we 
 are in a bear  market but then you tell me im a moron, hurts my 
 ego :)

Hurt your feelings?  It wasn't about you.

I have a personal philosophy about conversations that I've posted here
before and I'll share with you now:

NO ONE is right about something because of who they are, what they do
or what they've read.

They are right because they are right, independent of the above.

Here's an example:

I have a cold.

I go see a doctor.  He says I have a cold.

Is he right because of who he is, what he does or what he's read?

No. He's right because I do have a fucking cold.

If he said I didn't have one, he'd be wrong, regardless of who he is,
what he does or what he has read.

See what I mean?  We are right or wrong because we are right or wrong,
having nothing to do with who we are, what we do or what we have read.

That's why I hate personalizing in these posts so much.  Personalizing
in never relevant to an issue.

If you turn out to be right here disher, it's because your numbers are
right - not because you are who you are.

That said, I still don't think your numbers add up using the
assumptions you first posted.







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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread oakdorf
--put out a RFP (Request for Proposals) to bid for leasing and 
management rights of the City of Asbury Park Municpal Parking System

which is any current approved pay to park stalls and additional paid 
parking stalls in the future. The succesful bidder shall also have the 
right to propose additional parking facilitiesat their expense





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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dsher4
I was making a JOKE. 
Lighten up Francis


--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright 
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
 
  So 2+2 = 4 and it does matter what i do   :) 
  Sorry but i had to, that one hurt my feelings.  Its bad enough 
we 
  are in a bear  market but then you tell me im a moron, hurts my 
  ego :)
 
 Hurt your feelings?  It wasn't about you.
 
 I have a personal philosophy about conversations that I've posted 
here
 before and I'll share with you now:
 
 NO ONE is right about something because of who they are, what they 
do
 or what they've read.
 
 They are right because they are right, independent of the above.
 
 Here's an example:
 
 I have a cold.
 
 I go see a doctor.  He says I have a cold.
 
 Is he right because of who he is, what he does or what he's read?
 
 No. He's right because I do have a fucking cold.
 
 If he said I didn't have one, he'd be wrong, regardless of who he 
is,
 what he does or what he has read.
 
 See what I mean?  We are right or wrong because we are right or 
wrong,
 having nothing to do with who we are, what we do or what we have 
read.
 
 That's why I hate personalizing in these posts so much.  
Personalizing
 in never relevant to an issue.
 
 If you turn out to be right here disher, it's because your numbers 
are
 right - not because you are who you are.
 
 That said, I still don't think your numbers add up using the
 assumptions you first posted.






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread justifiedright
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 I was making a JOKE. 
 Lighten up Francis

Didn't know that.

I just didn't want you thinking I was peronsonalizing.  You know I
don't do that.




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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread justifiedright
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Not exactly.
 the 50 cents you receive in year one can be reinvestd at 10% for 9 
 years.  So that grows to $1.17.  Then you receive another fifty cents 
 in year two and that grows for 8 years to $1.07.  Etc.. etc.


Now we are getting somewhere.

That's what I just put in the last post.  Even if you reinvested each
year at 5% you wont get to a 10% total return on investment, which is
why I'm still disagreeing with you back to the starting line with your
assumptions.

Now as to this post here - where is this wonderful 10% investment
vehicle you are so easily slipping the money into each year?

I was using real world terms.  The other Dan posted that the average
CD is 3.77.

If we are going to assume the easy availability of a 10% vehicle, then
revise my initial CD purchase from a 5 to a 10%.

Now your numbers fall really short.

Stick to real world terms - and your assumptions don't add up.  You
won't get an investor interested using them.




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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread oakdorf
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright 
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 I have a cold.
 
 I go see a doctor.  He says I have a cold.
 
 Is he right because of who he is, what he does or what he's read?
 
 No. He's right because I do have a fucking cold.
 
 If he said I didn't have one, he'd be wrong, regardless of who he 
is, what he does or what he has read.
 


If you knew you had a cold, why would you go to the doctor? 

To argue with him if he said you didn't?

Or because you had no copayment or a low copayment and ahd to waste 
his time or to get a prescription because it's chepaer then buying 
over the counter? That's the system.

If we had a cold when we were kids, it was chicken soup and St. 
Josephs and we still got told to get up and get moving. 

That's because the chicken soup, fat and all, is what worked.

Never needed a doctor for that. You bump your head, chicken soup. You 
lost a game, chicken soup.






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread oakdorf
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright 
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

  Stick to real world terms - and your assumptions don't add up.  
You
 won't get an investor interested using them.


different methods to different folks.

If someone likes parking lots and future fees, it's different thena 
guy buying a four family house.

Maybe there's a company that's more creative in parking management or 
promoting events. Events bring people to town. When people come to 
town, they park.

So if you owned a company that had the rights to say 1500 spaces 
around a facility that can hold a concert for 4,000 people every day, 
you might co-sponsor a show or maybe put on fireworks every week to 
bring people to your business - those 1500 spaces..

Unless you know how the other guy actaully counts his money, never 
assume what's right for them. They'll fool you. 






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread dsher4
NO NO NO - 

Putting up 8.4 million and then receiving 1.44 million per year is a 
10% return.  
And by the way, you can buy extremely high quality corporate bond at 
9-10% right now.  So that is a real world example.  
And remember these municipal bonds would be tax free. 

And investors might require a 15% return for a high risk like 
Asbury.  I was just using assumptions to make a point not saying 10% 
would be what the market would require to purchase these bonds.  



--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright 
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
 
  Not exactly.
  the 50 cents you receive in year one can be reinvestd at 10% for 
9 
  years.  So that grows to $1.17.  Then you receive another fifty 
cents 
  in year two and that grows for 8 years to $1.07.  Etc.. etc.
 
 
 Now we are getting somewhere.
 
 That's what I just put in the last post.  Even if you reinvested 
each
 year at 5% you wont get to a 10% total return on investment, which 
is
 why I'm still disagreeing with you back to the starting line with 
your
 assumptions.
 
 Now as to this post here - where is this wonderful 10% investment
 vehicle you are so easily slipping the money into each year?
 
 I was using real world terms.  The other Dan posted that the 
average
 CD is 3.77.
 
 If we are going to assume the easy availability of a 10% vehicle, 
then
 revise my initial CD purchase from a 5 to a 10%.
 
 Now your numbers fall really short.
 
 Stick to real world terms - and your assumptions don't add up.  You
 won't get an investor interested using them.






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread oakdorf
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 
 And investors might require a 15% return for a high risk like 
 Asbury.  

and again, a creative company might get MORE, applying their knowledge 
and marketing to something so simple as a parking spot.






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[AsburyPark] Re: Asbury Park's Parking Meters Worth $37 MILLION? - THE MATH

2008-12-03 Thread justifiedright
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 NO NO NO - 
 
 Putting up 8.4 million and then receiving 1.44 million per year is a 
 10% return.  


We're just going to have to have different conclusions when we write
our prospectus;-)




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[AsburyPark] Re: So back to the budget and leasing Parking...

2008-12-03 Thread justifiedright
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, oakdorf [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Let's put the whose right and wrong aside. 

Is that a good idea?




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[AsburyPark] Re: So back to the budget and leasing Parking...

2008-12-03 Thread dsher4
I am going to let this discussion go for now in light of these 
thoughts.

I am not in the law profession so i do not make statements about 
that profession because it is not my core competency.  

I am in the investment profession and that is my core competency.
I also have multiple models that do these calculations for me. 
Compound interest and rate of return are some of the most basic 
concepts in my business.  I feel i have a firm grasp on them

Maybe i'm wrong in how i'm calculating this but that means i have 
been making wrong math calculations for the hedge fund that i have 
been working at for 15 years.  

The 10% assumption was an example, not a real world prospectus.

We could surely debate those issues, and i actually think the return 
would have to be 15%+ to an investor. So that is a debateable topic, 
how compound interest works is  not.



--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright 
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, oakdorf oakdorf@ wrote:
 
  Let's put the whose right and wrong aside. 
 
 Is that a good idea?






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[AsburyPark] Re: So back to the budget and leasing Parking...

2008-12-03 Thread oakdorf
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright 
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, oakdorf oakdorf@ wrote:
 
  Let's put the whose right and wrong aside. 
 
 Is that a good idea?


yea.

The City should produce the RFP and see what becomes of it.

There's time and options.

The City can say look at how much money we took in without really 
implementing the sytem 100% and not having the full knowledge of how 
to implement the system and public outcry of having to fifty cents 
and hour to park. And we also backed down because the developer 
complained we were charging


Now take that parking revenue generated in a short time with a 
boardwalk only half open in the summer (closing in the summer at 9pm 
when most boardwalks are first getting running..) and run those 
numbers out

How much would you pay today for that anticipated income stream.

And add another factor in - $1.00 per  hour peak season, then .50 
hour all other times.






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[AsburyPark] Re: So back to the budget and leasing Parking...

2008-12-03 Thread justifiedright
The last word is yours, dsher4.

Thanks for posting this stuff today and I hope you don't let my
examination of it, right or wrong, dissuade you from posting about it
again.

It was a good discussion.

--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 I am going to let this discussion go for now in light of these 
 thoughts.
 
 I am not in the law profession so i do not make statements about 
 that profession because it is not my core competency.  
 
 I am in the investment profession and that is my core competency.
 I also have multiple models that do these calculations for me. 
 Compound interest and rate of return are some of the most basic 
 concepts in my business.  I feel i have a firm grasp on them
 
 Maybe i'm wrong in how i'm calculating this but that means i have 
 been making wrong math calculations for the hedge fund that i have 
 been working at for 15 years.  
 
 The 10% assumption was an example, not a real world prospectus.
 
 We could surely debate those issues, and i actually think the return 
 would have to be 15%+ to an investor. So that is a debateable topic, 
 how compound interest works is  not.
 
 
 
 --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright 
 justifiedright@ wrote:
 
  --- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, oakdorf oakdorf@ wrote:
  
   Let's put the whose right and wrong aside. 
  
  Is that a good idea?
 






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[AsburyPark] Re: So back to the budget and leasing Parking...

2008-12-03 Thread oakdorf
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 I am going to let this discussion go for now in light of these 
 thoughts.
 

Thanks for providing, as usual, real world math.





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Re: [AsburyPark] Proof that Nancy Shields Reads This

2008-12-03 Thread GG518
Did you ever think maybe Nancy talks to a lot of people? Did you ever think  
that maybe someone sent her a copy of the letter?
 
So what if she reads what is on this board.
**Make your life easier with all your friends, email, and 
favorite sites in one place.  Try it now. 
(http://www.aol.com/?optin=new-dpicid=aolcom40vanityncid=emlcntaolcom0010)


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]




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[AsburyPark] Re: Proof that Nancy Shields Reads This

2008-12-03 Thread justifiedright
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Did you ever think maybe Nancy talks to a lot of people? Did you
ever think  
 that maybe someone sent her a copy of the letter?
  
 So what if she reads what is on this board.

So what?

I would want to know if the only daily paper in 2 counties was
following what I write.

That so what - right there.


 **Make your life easier with all your friends, email, and 
 favorite sites in one place.  Try it now. 

(http://www.aol.com/?optin=new-dpicid=aolcom40vanityncid=emlcntaolcom0010)
 
 
 [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]






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[AsburyPark] new years eve at restaurant plan b

2008-12-03 Thread jandlinap
 
New Year's Eve 
At 
Restaurant plan b
705 cookman ave Asbury park nj,732-807-4710

5 course dinner
Champagne toast
Live music with Josh Zuckerman
75.00 Per person

VEGAN 5 Course Available, Please advise at reservation

Gratuity and tax not included

Reservations start at 7 PM
 last seating at 10:30 PM
(No discounts or coupons apply)

Also join us for
After New Year's Eve brunch
10 am to 3pm





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RE: [AsburyPark] Re: Stepping Down from City Council

2008-12-03 Thread Michael W. Brim
Jennifer:

 

You are correct!

 

Since the city holds nonpartisan elections, the seating City Council members
will accept applications to fill the position Jim is leaving.  They will
then select a replacement, who will have to run for a full term (if they so
choose) in the next city election.

 

If we held partisan elections it would play out a little different with the
Council still making the final selection.

 

Michael

 

 

Michael W.  Brim

321 Sunset Avenue, Unit 5F

Asbury Park NJ 07712-5550

Cell: 732-996-8160

 

 

From: AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Jennifer
Sent: Tuesday, December 02, 2008 11:58 AM
To: AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [AsburyPark] Re: Stepping Down from City Council

 

Ed Johnson was appointed to the council when Kate Melina resigned. That 
was in January 2005 and Ed was elected in the May 2005 election. I 
would guess that a similar process is going to happen.

--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com mailto:AsburyPark%40yahoogroups.com ,
justifiedright 
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 What happends next? Do the councilmembers fill the seat, is there a 
 special election or does the seat stay vacant until May?
 
 Does it make a difference if the resignation is effective before or 
 after the new year since it is an election year?
 
 If no one knows off hand I'll try to look it up.
 
 

 



[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]




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RE: [AsburyPark] Re: Stepping Down from City Council

2008-12-03 Thread Michael W. Brim
Jennifer:

 

You are correct!

 

Since the city holds nonpartisan elections, the seating City Council members
will accept applications to fill the position Jim is leaving.  They will
then select a replacement, who will have to run for a full term (if they so
choose) in the next city election.

 

If we held partisan elections it would play out a little different with the
Council still making the final selection.

 

Michael

 

 

Michael W.  Brim

321 Sunset Avenue, Unit 5F

Asbury Park NJ 07712-5550

Cell: 732-996-8160

 

 

 

From: AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Jennifer
Sent: Tuesday, December 02, 2008 11:58 AM
To: AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [AsburyPark] Re: Stepping Down from City Council

 

Ed Johnson was appointed to the council when Kate Melina resigned. That 
was in January 2005 and Ed was elected in the May 2005 election. I 
would guess that a similar process is going to happen.

--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com mailto:AsburyPark%40yahoogroups.com ,
justifiedright 
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 What happends next? Do the councilmembers fill the seat, is there a 
 special election or does the seat stay vacant until May?
 
 Does it make a difference if the resignation is effective before or 
 after the new year since it is an election year?
 
 If no one knows off hand I'll try to look it up.
 
 

 



[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]




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[AsburyPark] Made in the USA ???

2008-12-03 Thread Michael W. Brim
 

 

This is a cute one. and very true... so much for the America of the past.

 

Joe Smith started the day early, having set his : 

alarm clock 

(MADE IN JAPAN ) for 6 a.m. 

While his coffeepot 

(MADE IN CHINA ) 

was perking, he shaved with his 

electric razor 

(MADE IN HONG KONG ). 

He put on a 

dress shirt 

(MADE IN SRI LANKA ), 

designer jeans 

(MADE IN SINGAPORE ) 

and 

tennis shoes 

(MADE IN KOREA ) 

After  cooking his breakfast in his new 

electric skillet 

(MADE IN INDIA ) 

he sat down with his 

calculator 

(MADE IN MEXICO ) 

to see how much he could spend today. After setting his 

watch 

(MADE IN TAIWAN ) 

to the radio 

(MADE IN INDIA ) 

he got in his car 

(MADE IN GERMANY ) 

filled it with GAS 

(from Saudi Arabia ) 

and continued his search 

for a good paying AMERICAN JOB. 

At the end 

of yet another discouraging 

and fruitless day 

checking his 

Computer 

(Made In Malaysia ), 

Joe decided to relax for a while. 

He put on his sandals 

(MADE IN BRAZIL ) 

poured himself a glass of 

wine 

(MADE IN FRANCE ) 

and turned on his 

TV 

(MADE IN INDONESIA ), 

and then wondered 

why he can't find 

a good paying job 

in AMERICA . 

Ya gotta Keep this one circulating, please.!

 



[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]




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