Re: 2004 Elections (and Kerry)
From: John D. Giorgis [EMAIL PROTECTED] At 04:42 AM 1/21/2004 -0800 Gautam Mukunda wrote: It's not, actually. None of the people I had in mind were in any way involved in politics. Most of them were doctors, actually. Massachusetts politics is very retail. But again, doctors aren't exactly representative of ordinary Massachusettans.They tend to be the very sort of highly-paid people who would be likely to donate a couple hundred dollars to a political campaign - which is again, not ordinary. I gotta agree with John. I've lived in MA for approximately 16 years and have plenty of friends and coworkers who lived here their whole lives, and nobody has ever met (in any significant personal way) any of this state's primary leadership. Being wealthy and living in Cambridge/Boston might easily put you in that crowd, but I suspect my friends/coworkers and I's experience (or lack thereof) is much more the norm. _ Rethink your business approach for the new year with the helpful tips here. http://special.msn.com/bcentral/prep04.armx ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: 2004 Elections (and Kerry)
At 11:17 PM 1/20/2004, you wrote: At 09:00 PM 1/20/2004 -0600 Julia Thompson wrote: It's not that far-fetched to have run into someone in eastern Massachusetts who'd have run into some particular Congressman elected from that area sometime in the past 20 years. Especially if you were seeking out people who had been active in political campaigns. I read Gautam's statement as implying that it was not extraordinary for ordinary Massachusettans to have run into one of their Senators. JDG - Who has never so much as met his Congressional Representatie. Have to agree with Julia here. I've met at least ten without even trying. Four of them I'm on a first name basis with. (Two I ride bikes with, another who married my cousin's widow, and the fourth is in my social/service club.) Two houses ago my rep's office was in the same plaza as my comic dealer. I walk past Santorum's office every day now but have not seen him yet. Comes from living in a non-stress city: http://www.post-gazette.com/localnews/20040113stress0113p1.asp Kevin T. - VRWC Back to work after four days off ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: 2004 Elections (and Kerry)
--- John D. Giorgis [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: At 09:00 PM 1/20/2004 -0600 Julia Thompson wrote: I read Gautam's statement as implying that it was not extraordinary for ordinary Massachusettans to have run into one of their Senators. JDG - Who has never so much as met his Congressional Representatie. It's not, actually. None of the people I had in mind were in any way involved in politics. Most of them were doctors, actually. Massachusetts politics is very retail. = Gautam Mukunda [EMAIL PROTECTED] Freedom is not free http://www.mukunda.blogspot.com __ Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Hotjobs: Enter the Signing Bonus Sweepstakes http://hotjobs.sweepstakes.yahoo.com/signingbonus ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: 2004 Elections (and Kerry)
At 04:42 AM 1/21/2004 -0800 Gautam Mukunda wrote: It's not, actually. None of the people I had in mind were in any way involved in politics. Most of them were doctors, actually. Massachusetts politics is very retail. But again, doctors aren't exactly representative of ordinary Massachusettans.They tend to be the very sort of highly-paid people who would be likely to donate a couple hundred dollars to a political campaign - which is again, not ordinary. JDG ___ John D. Giorgis - [EMAIL PROTECTED] The liberty we prize is not America's gift to the world, it is God's gift to humanity. - George W. Bush 1/29/03 ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: 2004 Elections (and Kerry)
--- John D. Giorgis [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: At 04:42 AM 1/21/2004 -0800 Gautam Mukunda wrote: But again, doctors aren't exactly representative of ordinary Massachusettans.They tend to be the very sort of highly-paid people who would be likely to donate a couple hundred dollars to a political campaign - which is again, not ordinary. JDG Not sure why you're fighting this one out, John. Yes, maybe they would be. The doctors I'm thinking of met Kerry at: 1) A Hospital (where they practiced) and 2) On the street in Boston Other people met him in similar settings. Now, to be fair, the people who met him in political situations had the same feeling - it seems to be rather a general feeling about the haughty, French-looking Senator from Massachusetts who by the way served in Vietnam. Honestly, John, I can't imagine how a politically active person in Maryland could have _avoided_ meeting your Congressman. I've run into Connie Morella (my old Congresswoman) more times than I can count, and _none_ of those times were at political functions, nor is my family in the least wealthy, influential, or politically active. I'd be shocked if either of my parents had ever donated to _any_ political campaign, and they've certainly never attended any political events. = Gautam Mukunda [EMAIL PROTECTED] Freedom is not free http://www.mukunda.blogspot.com __ Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! SiteBuilder - Free web site building tool. Try it! http://webhosting.yahoo.com/ps/sb/ ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: 2004 Elections (and Kerry)
From: Deborah Harrell [EMAIL PROTECTED] I'd thought of him as rather lugubrious before, but I was pleasantly surprised by the way he carried himself on one of yesterday's Sunday-morning political show interviews -- he seemed animated and much more dynamic. I like Kerry, he was my early-on favorite. (Not so much anymore, though, but still I do vastly prefer him to Howard Dean). Kerry actually spoke at my undergrad UMass graduation ceremory back in 1990. I don't remember the details anymore but I do recall at the time thinking his speech was excellent. Kerry will never be a Clinton-type charmer, but he's really not the Gore-type stiff that he's gotten painted as. Unfortunately, some of his campaign PR appearance stuff apparently designed to make him seem more regular guy-ish, has had almost the opposite effect. Stuff like appearing on Jay Leno riding a motorcycle, eating a cheesesteak in Philadelphia, etc. They came across as lame and staged, making him look completely out of place, along the lines of the disastrous Michael Dukakis riding in a tank photo-op. -bryon _ Learn how to choose, serve, and enjoy wine at Wine @ MSN. http://wine.msn.com/ ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: 2004 Elections (and Kerry)
--- Bryon Daly [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Kerry will never be a Clinton-type charmer, but he's really not the Gore-type stiff that he's gotten painted as. Unfortunately, some of his campaign PR appearance stuff apparently designed to make him seem more regular guy-ish, has had almost the opposite effect. Stuff like appearing on Jay Leno riding a motorcycle, eating a cheesesteak in Philadelphia, etc. They came across as lame and staged, making him look completely out of place, along the lines of the disastrous Michael Dukakis riding in a tank photo-op. -bryon My own sense of Kerry comes from five years in Boston. I kept running into liberal Democrats who hated, hated, _hated_ George Bush. They also knew (as in had met) John Kerry (Massachusetts is a sufficiently small state that running into a Senator is a fairly common occurrence). And many of them said that they would vote for Bush before they voted for Kerry. It was quite remarkable - I've really never seen anything like it. Al Gore generated something of the same feeling, I think, but at a far lower level of intensity. = Gautam Mukunda [EMAIL PROTECTED] Freedom is not free http://www.mukunda.blogspot.com __ Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Hotjobs: Enter the Signing Bonus Sweepstakes http://hotjobs.sweepstakes.yahoo.com/signingbonus ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: 2004 Elections (and Kerry)
From: Gautam Mukunda [EMAIL PROTECTED] My own sense of Kerry comes from five years in Boston. I kept running into liberal Democrats who hated, hated, _hated_ George Bush. They also knew (as in had met) John Kerry (Massachusetts is a sufficiently small state that running into a Senator is a fairly common occurrence). And many of them said that they would vote for Bush before they voted for Kerry. It was quite remarkable - I've really never seen anything like it. Al Gore generated something of the same feeling, I think, but at a far lower level of intensity. Really? Wow. I don't know any politicians personally, but I never got any sense of that via news or even local talk radio coverage about him. Why did they dislike Kerry so much? -Bryon _ Find high-speed net deals comparison-shop your local providers here. https://broadband.msn.com ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: 2004 Elections (and Kerry)
Gautam Mukunda wrote: My own sense of Kerry comes from five years in Boston. I kept running into liberal Democrats who hated, hated, _hated_ George Bush. They also knew (as in had met) John Kerry (Massachusetts is a sufficiently small state that running into a Senator is a fairly common occurrence). And many of them said that they would vote for Bush before they voted for Kerry. It was quite remarkable - I've really never seen anything like it. Al Gore generated something of the same feeling, I think, but at a far lower level of intensity. What was it about Kerry? One of my friends is a big Demo fund-raiser here in Silicon Valley and he jumped on the Kerry bandwagon very early. (And so I've passed on a few chances to meet Kerry, based on the price tag for lunch or dinner!) I like what Dean's organization is doing, but I'm not sure that makes Dean the best candidate... so I guess I'm undecided, at best. Uninformed, I'm afraid. I'm often seized with a desire to vote Green. Nick -- Nick Arnett Phone/fax: (408) 904-7198 [EMAIL PROTECTED] ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: 2004 Elections (and Kerry)
--- Nick Arnett [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: What was it about Kerry? I'm often seized with a desire to vote Green. Nick Hi Nick. I think that the common complaint is that he is nothing but ambition. That's the phrase I've heard. There are a bunch of stories about that. He started signing his name JFK when he was 19 or 20 to make himself seem more Presidential. My favorite is that he founded a veterans against the war group after Vietnam and became quite a celebrity for throwing away his medals as a rejection of the war. Except, as it was later revealed, they were _someone else's_ medals. There's a bunch of that in his public record - he's been a perfect weathervane. Apparently it comes through in his private life. I've never met him, so I can't say from personal experience, but those who have all say pretty much the same things about him - that if you're not useful to him, you're nothing to him. It also strikes me that the Washington Press Corps, which is usually pathetically in the tank for any plausible moderate Democrat, just can't _stand_ the guy. It's remarkable. Mickey Kaus has written about it a fair amount on his webpage. = Gautam Mukunda [EMAIL PROTECTED] Freedom is not free http://www.mukunda.blogspot.com __ Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Hotjobs: Enter the Signing Bonus Sweepstakes http://hotjobs.sweepstakes.yahoo.com/signingbonus ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: 2004 Elections (and Kerry)
At 05:21 PM 1/20/2004 -0800 Gautam Mukunda wrote: Hi Nick. I think that the common complaint is that he is nothing but ambition. That's the phrase I've heard. There are a bunch of stories about that. Kerry started signing his name JFK when he was 19 or 20 to make himself seem more Presidential. And the funny thing is, he is running against the next JFK in John Edwards, who not only has the boyish looks, but has two absolutely perfect, adorable little kids to boot. JDG ___ John D. Giorgis - [EMAIL PROTECTED] The liberty we prize is not America's gift to the world, it is God's gift to humanity. - George W. Bush 1/29/03 ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: 2004 Elections (and Kerry)
At 12:11 PM 1/20/2004 -0800 Gautam Mukunda wrote: My own sense of Kerry comes from five years in Boston. I kept running into liberal Democrats who hated, hated, _hated_ George Bush. They also knew (as in had met) John Kerry (Massachusetts is a sufficiently small state that running into a Senator is a fairly common occurrence). Uhhh Gautam I think that you are forgetting that you are travelling in a pretty extraordinary circle having gone from a Poli Sci major at Harvard to McKinsey. But yeah, I am delighted that Kerry came back from the dead in Iowa yesterday. I just get very bad vibes from this guy that eventually people just won't *feel* comfortable with him the way they feel comfortable with George Bush - and this is what eventually decides a lot of elections. JDG ___ John D. Giorgis - [EMAIL PROTECTED] The liberty we prize is not America's gift to the world, it is God's gift to humanity. - George W. Bush 1/29/03 ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: 2004 Elections (and Kerry)
John D. Giorgis wrote: At 12:11 PM 1/20/2004 -0800 Gautam Mukunda wrote: My own sense of Kerry comes from five years in Boston. I kept running into liberal Democrats who hated, hated, _hated_ George Bush. They also knew (as in had met) John Kerry (Massachusetts is a sufficiently small state that running into a Senator is a fairly common occurrence). Uhhh Gautam I think that you are forgetting that you are travelling in a pretty extraordinary circle having gone from a Poli Sci major at Harvard to McKinsey. I saw nothing extraordinary in Gautam's statement. Then again, my perception of New England states is influenced by my time in New Hampshire, which had a smaller population than Massachusetts. But one of my senators came to my high school and spoke to a smallish group of students -- no more than 80 of us, IIRC, and maybe even not that many. He answered questions we had. And in the first election in which I could vote, the guy running against him was a member of my church, so I saw him now and again. Plus he lived in my town, and greeted me as I was leaving the polling place, having cast my ballot. (What do you say to someone you've just voted against?) Julia ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: 2004 Elections (and Kerry)
Julia Thompson wrote: John D. Giorgis wrote: At 12:11 PM 1/20/2004 -0800 Gautam Mukunda wrote: My own sense of Kerry comes from five years in Boston. I kept running into liberal Democrats who hated, hated, _hated_ George Bush. They also knew (as in had met) John Kerry (Massachusetts is a sufficiently small state that running into a Senator is a fairly common occurrence). Uhhh Gautam I think that you are forgetting that you are travelling in a pretty extraordinary circle having gone from a Poli Sci major at Harvard to McKinsey. I saw nothing extraordinary in Gautam's statement. Then again, my perception of New England states is influenced by my time in New Hampshire, which had a smaller population than Massachusetts. snip One other thing -- Kerry was elected to the House of Representatives sometime in the 1980s, from a district at least close enough to Boston that the Boston TV stations carried his campaign ads. It's not that far-fetched to have run into someone in eastern Massachusetts who'd have run into some particular Congressman elected from that area sometime in the past 20 years. Especially if you were seeking out people who had been active in political campaigns. (I never ran into my own Congressional representative from that time, but I was in the same chemistry class as one of his nieces. I *have* had brief dealings with the man who is now my Congressional representative.) Julia ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: 2004 Elections (and Kerry)
- Original Message - From: Julia Thompson [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: Killer Bs Discussion [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, January 20, 2004 9:00 PM Subject: Re: 2004 Elections (and Kerry) Julia Thompson wrote: John D. Giorgis wrote: At 12:11 PM 1/20/2004 -0800 Gautam Mukunda wrote: My own sense of Kerry comes from five years in Boston. I kept running into liberal Democrats who hated, hated, _hated_ George Bush. They also knew (as in had met) John Kerry (Massachusetts is a sufficiently small state that running into a Senator is a fairly common occurrence). Uhhh Gautam I think that you are forgetting that you are travelling in a pretty extraordinary circle having gone from a Poli Sci major at Harvard to McKinsey. I saw nothing extraordinary in Gautam's statement. Then again, my perception of New England states is influenced by my time in New Hampshire, which had a smaller population than Massachusetts. snip One other thing -- Kerry was elected to the House of Representatives sometime in the 1980s, from a district at least close enough to Boston that the Boston TV stations carried his campaign ads. It's not that far-fetched to have run into someone in eastern Massachusetts who'd have run into some particular Congressman elected from that area sometime in the past 20 years. Especially if you were seeking out people who had been active in political campaigns. (I never ran into my own Congressional representative from that time, but I was in the same chemistry class as one of his nieces. I *have* had brief dealings with the man who is now my Congressional representative.) I was going to say: Hopefully you washed the dress But then I decided not to. G xponent Hose 'N' Wash Maru rob ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: 2004 Elections (and Kerry)
At 09:00 PM 1/20/2004 -0600 Julia Thompson wrote: It's not that far-fetched to have run into someone in eastern Massachusetts who'd have run into some particular Congressman elected from that area sometime in the past 20 years. Especially if you were seeking out people who had been active in political campaigns. I read Gautam's statement as implying that it was not extraordinary for ordinary Massachusettans to have run into one of their Senators. JDG - Who has never so much as met his Congressional Representatie. ___ John D. Giorgis - [EMAIL PROTECTED] The liberty we prize is not America's gift to the world, it is God's gift to humanity. - George W. Bush 1/29/03 ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: 2004 Elections (and Kerry)
Robert Seeberger wrote: - Original Message - From: Julia Thompson [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: Killer Bs Discussion [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, January 20, 2004 9:00 PM Subject: Re: 2004 Elections (and Kerry) (I never ran into my own Congressional representative from that time, but I was in the same chemistry class as one of his nieces. I *have* had brief dealings with the man who is now my Congressional representative.) I was going to say: Hopefully you washed the dress But then I decided not to. G Actually, my current rep used to be a judge in my county. I got called up for jury duty 3 times; the first and third times, he was presiding over the jury pool selection stuff. (The second time, I got Billy Ray Stubblefield.) I have talked with my rep, but I'm not sure I did as much as shake his hand. (I think I'd've remembered if I had -- I make it a point to remember how people shake hands.) And besides, if you knew me better, you'd know I wouldn't wear a dress for just *any* occasion. :) I wore pants to jury duty selection all 3 times, frex. (I *did* wear a dress to my sister's wedding, which is more than can be said for her other attendant, a woman who doesn't wear dresses, period. Her shirt, vest and pants combination was very nice, though.) Julia ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: 2004 Elections (and Kerry)
John D. Giorgis wrote: At 09:00 PM 1/20/2004 -0600 Julia Thompson wrote: It's not that far-fetched to have run into someone in eastern Massachusetts who'd have run into some particular Congressman elected from that area sometime in the past 20 years. Especially if you were seeking out people who had been active in political campaigns. I read Gautam's statement as implying that it was not extraordinary for ordinary Massachusettans to have run into one of their Senators. JDG - Who has never so much as met his Congressional Representatie. Well, if pigs had flown, hell had frozen over and the other guy had won the senate race in NH in 1986, I *would* have run into one of my Senators on a vaguely regular basis. :) Depends on who you are, where you live, what circles you move in, and all those factors for your Senators. And does your Congressional rep ever have these events set up where you go and throw questions at him or her? If there's anything like that ever going on, you might go, just for the experience of it. Julia who never went to any of Smith's things like that, and is so out of it now she has no clue about whatever Carter is doing along those lines ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: 2004 Elections
--- John D. Giorgis [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I haven't yet commented on the 2004 Elections here on the Brin-L List. snipped most First, while the old cliche goes that you should never make the mistake of re-fighting the last election I think that cliche meets its maker this year, as the 50-50 nation holds and a very tight race ensues.And since a Democratic blowout is nearly inconceivable against an incumbent with a solid economy, and a Bush blowout isn't any fun to discuss, I'm going to base the rest of my analysis on the assumption of a close race, and my general assumption of Dean as the nominee with someone like Clark or Bob Graham as the VP. I also think that it will be a close race; having learned a bit about Kerry I think he'd be a good bet, but of course Dean does have that solid grass-roots base. Clark as VP also makes sense to me. I'm pulling for 2 of these 3 to be on the Dem ticket (but can't call it a prediction b/c I'm going with my gut ;} ). And of course I'm for a Dem win... :) CO - Next time around, a massive influx of Hispanics and suburbanites may make Colorado competitive, but for now Bush holds onto this core conservative State. Probably so; however ~70,000 jobs have been lost state-wide over the past 2 years (and since 1939 there had been job growth or stability), and bankruptcies were at an all-time high in 2003. The forecast is modest improvement in 2004. http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/business/article/0,1299,DRMN_4_2566224,00.html ...Economists and industry leaders say it's clear that high-tech job cuts in Colorado have subsided compared with 2001 and 2002, when layoffs flowed like spring runoff and companies slashed hundreds of positions in one swipe. The Denver area lost an estimated 13,000 to 20,000 net jobs in 2003, which is significantly lower than the 40,000 net decrease in 2002... ...And although the national economy is improving, it's not bringing jobs with it. Employers added just 1,000 jobs last month, way below the 100,000 to 150,000 analysts expected. And Colorado's unemployment rate is at 5.6 percent, up a bit over a year ago... http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/business/article/0,1299,DRMN_4_2508342,00.html ...The forecast for 1.5 percent job growth in the coming year will follow two years in which Colorado actually lost jobs - the first time that has occurred since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began tracking such data in 1939... (This site has obvious bias, and their figure is higher -- 84K jobs lost in CO since Bush took office -- but I include it for those who've heard the higher number.) http://www.ourfuture.org/docUploads/DENVER%20FINAL%20JOBS%20SHEET.pdf http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1413,36%257E33%257E1863913,00.html?search=filter Colorado residents and companies filed a record number of bankruptcy cases in 2003, outstripping the previous year's tally by 21.3 percent. Brad Bolton, clerk of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court's Colorado division, described Colorado's jump in cases from 21,260 in 2002 to 25,786 in 2003 as the highest percentage increase in the nation. He does not foresee a repeat this year. For 2004, I do not expect the increase to continue to accelerate at that pace, Bolton said. It's not conceivable. We are already seeing a leveling off. Several bankruptcy lawyers attributed the state's jump in cases to a dramatic rise in personal filings. Colorado's economy has struggled since 2000 amid job losses, particularly in the telecommunications and technology industries... ...Colorado's economy itself right now is lagging behind most other states in terms of the recovery, said Tom Connolly of Broomfield law firm Connolly, Rosania and Loftstedt... Debbi who learned today that *another* person she knows is getting laid off __ Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Hotjobs: Enter the Signing Bonus Sweepstakes http://hotjobs.sweepstakes.yahoo.com/signingbonus ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: 2004 Elections (and Kerry)
I wrote: I also think that it will be a close race; having learned a bit about Kerry I think he'd be a good bet... I'd thought of him as rather lugubrious before, but I was pleasantly surprised by the way he carried himself on one of yesterday's Sunday-morning political show interviews -- he seemed animated and much more dynamic. Thanks for the post, Rob. Debbi Boring Is Good Only If You're Mining Maru ;) __ Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Hotjobs: Enter the Signing Bonus Sweepstakes http://hotjobs.sweepstakes.yahoo.com/signingbonus ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
2004 Elections
I haven't yet commented on the 2004 Elections here on the Brin-L List. even though I really wish that I had gotten my predictions on the written record. For those of you who haven't been able to discuss the elections with me in-person, however, (basically everyone here) you might be somewhat surprised that know that very, very, early on - i.e. back when he first entered the race - I identified Howard Dean as the person whom I figured would be the Democrats' nominee. Of course, nowadays he is essentially the favorite for the nomination, so you'll have to take my word for it on that prediction - as I am going to stick by my that prediction that Dean will be the eventual nominee. The one thing that may surprise you all, however, is that as an avowed Bush supporter Dean is one of the two candidates whom I fear the most (the other being Edwards.) In the case of Edwards, I have been very impressed by his speaking ability and his ability to connect to voters.As a Democrat elected in North Carolina, however, he really has the ability to portray himself as a true moderate. And perhaps most importantly, I think that he has the real ability to *win* North Carolina, which in a close election is devastating to Bush's chances and really turns the electoral map on its head but more on that later. Now, while I definitely do fear Edwards as being very capable of beating Bush - that isn't exactly an uncommon opinion. Moreover, Edwards really has little chance of winning the nomination, as even if he pulls a miracle upset in Iowa he just seems too far behind in the rest of the nation in a very crowded primary field so I won't dwell too much on that. The opinion that Dean could really beat Bush, however, is a bit more unconventional. The first thing that impresses me about Dean is his stage presence. Dean strikes me as a guy who is very capable of looking Presidential - despite the anger for which he is so often criticized. I may have to look more into the possibility of Dean being perceived as angry and turning off voters, but for now, I think that voters will really admire his convictions. Moreover, I just think that he will look *strong*, which will leave voters with those favorable gut feelings that so often decide votes. Secondly, in a tight election - and most experts predict that the 50-50 nation hasn't gone anywhere, it is support from your base that matters most. Dean has unparalleled ability to fire up the Democratic base - unlike an apparatchik like Kerry whom people are mostly supporting simply because they think he can win. Dean pretty much is the one candidate in the Democratic field whom Democratic voters truly want to *be* President. Additionally, Dean has a phenomenal independent organization working for him - which will really help Democratic Get-Out-The-Vote efforts in November. Lastly, Dean is able to go toe-to-toe with Bush between the primaries and the convention, thanks to having ducked campaign matching funds. Thirdly - and I think that this point is underappreciated - I fear Dean because he is so welling to counter the conventional wisdom. Let's face it, with the economy likely to rebound heavily in 2004, the conventional wisdom is that the Democratic nominee is little more than a sacraficial lamb for the incumbent. All the models predict that the incumbent wins big with a healthy economy. Thus, in my mind, the only way to fight that fatalism is to counter the conventional wisdom in every respect. In this respect, Dean is something like The Mule in The Foundation series - he's the unknown quantity outside the equations who is raising tons of money, exciting his supporters to the point of fanatacism, building a powerful organization, and defying the conventional wisdom. Fourth, I don't think that the historical symetry can be ignored of President Bush winning a war in Iraq, achieving sky-high approval ratings, and then being defeated by an insurgent campaign from a Democratic governor of a small, marginal, State.In addition, I think some aspects of the electoral math work in his favor. I've heard that Dean is doing very well among Hispanics, and I expect Dean to play very well in The Midwest - where this election is going to be fought but more on that in a moment. Anyhow, here is my early electoral college analysis.I invite other Brin-L'ers to put in their own electoral college predictions over the next week or so, and come November we can laugh at the results. :) So here goes First, while the old cliche goes that you should never make the mistake of re-fighting the last election I think that cliche meets its maker this year, as the 50-50 nation holds and a very tight race ensues.And since a Democratic blowout is nearly inconceivable against an incumbent with a solid economy, and a Bush blowout isn't any fun to discuss, I'm going to base the rest of my analysis on the assumption of a close race, and my general assumption
