Well exactly who would pay for it and what would the turn out be?
Haven't we all learned that you can't just spend money without any
thoughts about what the reason is for the spending. The town has no
money (12 million deficit) and MM has already spent millions without
any payback as of yet.
, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
Well exactly who would pay for it and what would the turn out be?
Turn on the TV or better yet, the Internet.
No one would come, you're right.
He gave a great speech.
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--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
Werner,
It was nice to meet you last week. I wondered if anyone noticed
that new part on your tax bill that shows what the state is
paying
on your behalf as a homeowner in Asbury.
How is the town ever going to generate the 45
This is not intended to tweak anyone but i thought this was
interesting that this music themed park failed.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123128760224559189.html?
mod=googlenews_wsj
Hard Rock Park, a 140-acre theme park in Myrtle Beach, S.C., opened
with great fanfare last April, hoping to
B section of the January 7, 2009 Wall street journal for those who
are interested
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsh...@... wrote:
This is not intended to tweak anyone but i thought this was
interesting that this music themed park failed.
http://online.wsj.com/article
Werner,
It was nice to meet you last week. I wondered if anyone noticed
that new part on your tax bill that shows what the state is paying
on your behalf as a homeowner in Asbury.
How is the town ever going to generate the 45+ million (this is my
calculation so not sure if it is correct) for
I found this on the web for those who are interested. Its a FAQ for
a company that does revaluation appraisal in New Jersey
municipalities. I found it informative. Here is the link also
Why is my town undergoing a revaluation now?
Towns undertake revaluations periodically to reflect current
The sad fact is that it is virtually impossible to get a loan to do
almost anything at the current time for even the most creditworthy
of borrowers.
Real Estate is on the lower end of the health spectrum at the moment.
I have no specific knowledge here but my guess is that this project
is
If someone knows the actual number of parking spots in town and the
number of spots in the lots that MM paved, i will take some time and
do a real world analysis with numbers and assumptions that i think
make sense.
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I left a detailed message, hopefully he returns my call
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, wernerapnj [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
If someone knows the actual number of parking spots in town and
the
number of spots in the lots
Here is how the math works. Most investors would be looking for a 10%
rate of return, maybe more in this environment. So if we calculate
how much money the meters could generate in a given year, we could
also figure out how much an investor would be willing to put up in an
upfront payment
Hopefully not boring everyone on the board with financial lingo i
will try to answer as simply as possible.
I purposefully didn't run this into perpetuity because i think it
would be absurd to give up the rights to ownership forever. Hence
my ten year term. I could have picked 30 years
@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny dfsavgny@ wrote:
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
The present value of that stream of free cash flows (assuming
a
10
year deal with a 10% rate of return to the investor would be
8.258
million. After 10 years the meters would
Or to put really simply, this is a municipal Bond structure.
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
the 10% takes all of that into account. Think of this as a bond
to
the investor. Just like people put up a $100 to get a 4%
guaranteed
return from the U.S
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
Return in this instance is IRR but takes into account the time
value
of money.
Always does.
Remember that to the investor the initial returns are
negative but the out year returns are very
$13,519,825 and 40 cents
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
So if I put 8.3 million in a safe investment vehicle with 5%
compounded annually, how much would I have at the end of 10 years?
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny dfsavgny@
to attract an
investor
for a ten year period.
As the below number shows, he can throw it all in a nice safe CD
and
make more.
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
$13,519,825 and 40 cents
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
OK hold on - let me explain
one example is 8.3 million tied up for 10 years. your 5% example.
you get 5% on 8.3 each year or $415,000
The example i gave is 8.3 million up front like your example, but
you receive 1.34 million each year that you can then re-invest in
something else.
SO, it
Geez, i went to a meeting for an hour and here is where we are.
One major mistake is being made in these calculations.
10% grows to 21.5 million if you never take the money out and you
leave it compounding for all ten years. My example has a payout
each and every year and that money does
That is correct. If you reinvested the 1.4 million received every
year back into an investment that yielded 10% you would get the 20+
million.
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
Geez, i went
So 2+2 = 4 and it does matter what i do :)
Sorry but i had to, that one hurt my feelings. Its bad enough we
are in a bear market but then you tell me im a moron, hurts my
ego :)
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
That is correct. If you reinvested the 1.4
Not exactly.
the 50 cents you receive in year one can be reinvestd at 10% for 9
years. So that grows to $1.17. Then you receive another fifty cents
in year two and that grows for 8 years to $1.07. Etc.. etc.
That means the 50 cents you realize in year 1 of the deal is worth
10x
more
You can't just multiply 1.34 million by 10 because that assumes you
never re-invest each years payout.
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny dfsavgny@ wrote:
And I do not think you ever said anything about
I was making a JOKE.
Lighten up Francis
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
So 2+2 = 4 and it does matter what i do :)
Sorry but i had to, that one hurt my feelings. Its bad enough
we
require a 15% return for a high risk like
Asbury. I was just using assumptions to make a point not saying 10%
would be what the market would require to purchase these bonds.
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, justifiedright
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4
I am going to let this discussion go for now in light of these
thoughts.
I am not in the law profession so i do not make statements about
that profession because it is not my core competency.
I am in the investment profession and that is my core competency.
I also have multiple models that
Not sure if this topic has already been discussed in the distant
past. I wonder how many hotels/BB's would make sense for Asbury now
that there is a decent boardwalk for people to utilize in the summer.
How many rooms there are in other towns and what level of supply would
be too much. Does
months.
I also agree with Jack, The Tides is an awesome place
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, oakdorf [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
How many rooms there are in other towns and what level of supply
would
be too much. Does anyone
Guys,
Keep in mind that 18% IRR is on a levered basis. The unlevered
return is less than that. Also putting up 16% of the capital from
insiders is a healthy chunk of money. This does not seem like an
outrageous set of parameters.
Dan S
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, oakdorf [EMAIL
, dsher4 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
Guys,
Keep in mind that 18% IRR is on a levered basis. The unlevered
return is less than that. Also putting up 16% of the capital from
insiders is a healthy chunk of money. This does not seem like an
outrageous set of parameters.
Dan S
PROTECTED] wrote:
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
Guys,
Keep in mind that 18% IRR is on a levered basis. The unlevered
return is less than that. Also putting up 16% of the capital
from
insiders is a healthy chunk of money. This does not seem like
. The guys at Blackrock are very good.
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, oakdorf [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
Also, BlackRock Realty and the Harvard Endowment are two of the
most
sophisticated alternative investment investors
no leverage but the fund itself has
leverage.
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
This is the quote from the piece The Fund will see 350 million
of
equity capital commitments and target a gross
We own CSCO not BLK and i was more just making a point
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, oakdorf [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
--- so what do we have a BUY on CSCO and BLK for long term?
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We have to be careful what we wish for here. The disaster scenario
would be MM pulls out of Asbury and nobody else steps up to take
over the project because other real estate opportunities are trading
at distressed prices now but don't have nearly the risk that Asbury
has. Or MM funds for
close to the fire I
guess to be open
minded to outsiders observations.
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
Hey New Bee, YOU WAKE UP
If you think that you can judge the character of a place or its
people by what is typed on a board, you are dillusional. Go
Hey New Bee, YOU WAKE UP
If you think that you can judge the character of a place or its
people by what is typed on a board, you are dillusional. Go hang
out downtown and get a bite to eat at some of the nice restaurants
or shop in the eclectic stores on Cookman.
Enjoy the beautiful beach
and yes i spelled delusional wrong
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
Hey New Bee, YOU WAKE UP
If you think that you can judge the character of a place or its
people by what is typed on a board, you are dillusional. Go hang
out downtown and get a bite
This post is extremely well done. I second these thoughts
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, Gabrielle Obre
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
You write some of my feelings in a more adult manner. thanks, i
too am
enjoying AP in all stages of its metamorphosis.
i find this need to see asbury as
, wernerapnj [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
No, obviously everyone is entitled to their opinion. And in
some
cases the suggestions are good. I'm just pointing out that i
have
noticed a trend on this board. Generally, the people who have
Hey Jack,
Buy an old house in AP and use your dollars to bring it back to its
historical past. Its easier to have balls with someone else's
money.
Dan
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, Jack Pitzer [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
The city council, but it feels like they are under the MM spell.
it's ok to do sneaky
things like eliminate a
historic band shell, and allow ugly, pedestrian architecture.
I didn't realize life was that simple and without accountability.
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
Hey Jack,
Buy an old house in AP and use your dollars
Werner,
Sometimes we disagree, but your last 2 posts were terrific and spot
on. They were focused on your knowledge and history rather than
telling someone they were stupid or ignorant. Keep up the
informational and well thought out posts and we will all be better
for it.
Dan S.
--- In
What a terrific post. From someone who has some skin in the
game. Bravo for having some perspective.
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, jandlinap [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
Debbie
I agree with what is happening in the world.. wouldnt it be
great
to comment on all the great
I'm not a racist by any stretch. Is it possible the pictures were
of black faces because those were the people arrested? sometimes
what you see is actually what you see.
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, radio881gal [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
Sharon -
I'm glad somebody read that report.
Jack,
Great comment on the labels of republican, democrat etc... I agree
wholeheartedly. I have been saying for years that it is ridiculous
that when you vote you basically pick one slate for 15-20 different
issues. Why is it impossible to be fiscally conservative but also
pro-choice (just
I have made this point on this board a few times and I'm tired of
repeating but here we go again.
The tax deficit is millions and a few apt buildings will not come
close in closing that gap relative to the blight that they
represent for people looking to visit this town.
Secondly, the
:
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
And btw, i like arcade's
Ok, boardwalk lesson # 42:
Arcades are, as one operator once said, a thing of the past
UNLESS
Problems: RENT. Old arcades either had long term leases or they
OWNED the place.
Equipment: COSTS
Check out these bike racks created by David Byrne of Talking heads.
I think the reclining female would be pretty cool on the boardwalk
http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/19/new-bike-racks-courtesy-
of-david-byrne/index.html?partner=rssuserlandemc=rss
Werner i agree wholeheartedly with that post
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, wernerapnj [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, arcman210 acme87rangers@
wrote:
That wall is horrible. I would hope that alot of the blank
walls that
we see on the buildings will
How many strip malls have places like Hot Sand, LaPlaca and two
dining establishments that look out onto a beautiful beach/surf. I
take issue with that comment.
I do agree, however, that the bandshell should have a future and it
doesn't seem that way now.
Dan S.
--- In
to be progress. Our city has also
been lulled by the
seduction, and they don't appear to have the balls to step up and
do anything about it.
--- In [EMAIL PROTECTED] ups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
How many strip malls have places like Hot Sand, LaPlaca and two
dining establishments
I also wonder why when something unique is planned like having a
theatre presentation in the carousel building , nobody mentions it as
non-conformist, anti strip mall type thinking. Now i know the retort
could be, BECAUSE IT IS A CAROUSEL DUMMY and should house big wooden
horses with kids
by the
seduction, and they don't appear to have the balls to step up
and do anything about it.
--- In [EMAIL PROTECTED] ups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
How many strip malls have places like Hot Sand, LaPlaca and
two
dining establishments that look out onto a beautiful
beach/surf. I
take
Obviously we all have opinions about all things Asbury on this board.
I have noticed a sea-change in the last 6 months as the vibe on the
board is turning positive albeit gradually. I think what MM is doing
has obviously worked and continues to work. But something is even
more heartening
Does anyone know why the bungalows are not on the demolition list?
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, Jack Pitzer [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
I offered the demo crew $50 to take down the bungalows as well.
There were no takers...
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, oakdorf oakdorf@ wrote:
I really hope that money that MM has earmarked for Bradley Park gets
spent this spring. If i remember correctly they were going to give it
to the town but i'd rather they do the landscaping themselves so the
money doesn't get pissed away. I think planting beautiful gardens in
that park would
Think that is a terrific idea and could finally utilize the
bandshell again as one of the venues with music drifting down to the
boardwalk from above.
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, arcman210 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
there have been numerous suggestions in the past to get some sort
Mario,
It is exactly what you said. After Katrina the insurance companies
are taking another look at where they have higher risk and
repricing. I was told i would have to put storm shutters on my
house (metal) if i wanted to keep my policy. Effectively they
cancelled me so i had to switch
That is a very good point you make about the public swim club and no
i was not aware. I wonder how they plan to keep it from becoming
too overcrowded.
I guess i take issue with the fact that it seems almost criminal on
this board that these guys want to make money. I take 100% offense
to
the kettle black
having people in Clifton ask me why I want to live in
that shithole Asbury Park.
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
I got thinking over the weekend that one of the things that made
Asbury so special (among many things) was that it was very
I got thinking over the weekend that one of the things that made
Asbury so special (among many things) was that it was very forward
thinking for its time. The flared streets, the air conditioning in
convention hall, a respite from the dirty cities up north.
I too want to see Asbury's
I wonder if anyone in the city could investigate how much tax is being
generated by the ratables in the redevelopment zone. To determine how
much of an impact closing these places has in actual dollars or as a %
of the overall city tax base.
I would also say that anywhere drug activity is
I think a shallow pool is a good idea. It is for KIDS to encourage
families to come back to the area like they last did in the 1960's.
Perhaps by chance they might even spend some MONEY and enjoy it so
much they buy a HOUSE here or tell friends. We adults all have a
pool and it is called
@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
I think a shallow pool is a good idea. It is for KIDS to
encourage
families to come back to the area like they last did in the
1960's.
Like the 60's? In the 60's Asbury Park had the world's
largest
salt
water pool, including a high
Why not demolotion the Metropolitan and build something identical but
new in its likeness. A Metropolitan style hotel with up to date
ammenities might do very well. My guess is the Charms is more worth
saving structurally.
I know that isn't ideal to the preservationists but it is a happy
Political Suicide for any of the town board members who fight this or
hold it up from progressing by one day. When are elections again?
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out
of AP/MM's way and let it roll.
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
Political Suicide for any of the town board members who fight
this
or
hold it up from progressing by one day. When are elections
again?
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I'm sure this is not an original thought but here goes anyway:
Im guessing the reason for the press conference was two-fold
1. MM and Gary are very excited about everything they laid out and
they have the capital and expertise to make it happen. Maybe they
do read this board and wanted to
One of the single most important, influential things the city of
asbury could do going forward, is to hold landlords accountable. You
want to get rid of the undesirables in this town? one part of the
solution is to hold the landlords accountable. Let the zoning board
hone in on the
having capital when others don't and when others are under duress is
a terrific way to make outstanding retail investments.
Wow, MM is busy these days...
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, oakdorf oakdorf@ wrote:
in minneapolis:
Capital Growth Madison Marquette has signed on
This is purely an FYI:
Goldman was one of the very few companies who did not perpetuate any
of this. They are #1 in almost every category related to investment
banking but was #13 in issuing of mortgage related products. They
were also net short the mortgage market for most of 2007 and is the
And before anybody asks i do have a house in town, that i own, that i
use an don't rent and i have a wife and 2 kids so my Mrs. does come to
town.
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
Let's keep it simple.
It has nothing to do with prices of condo's.
People
Let's keep it simple.
It has nothing to do with prices of condo's.
People buy multi million dollar properties every day of the year up
and down the NJ shore.
It's about making a town, clean, safe with entertainment that people
want to see integrated with an intelligent housing situation.
We
In real estate and many areas of investing some of the most important
characteristics to have are vision, patience, deep pockets, common
sense, detachment, humility and the ability to ignore general panic.
All things that the people at MM seem to have.
Let's keep the focus in 2008 in looking
Point well taken. My guess is that when a developer has skin in the
game from point of view of ongoing retail they try to do a better
job of doing it right (as opposed to slapping up a bunch of
buildings and then leaving town, or dissolving the corporation after
in its ugliest form). If MM
perhaps in 2008 the tri-city news flash will read
breaking news, town officials and Werner were seen having a
redevelopment planning session on non-other than Werner's Porch.
The meeting ended with everyone singing Koombya.
As Oak and i were discussing a few days ago, progress in Asbury is
very dependent on the single family home owner (or prospective still
thinking about coming here) and the continued progress on Cookman.
For this reason it is increasingly important that the town is
upfront about what is
Agree with those points:
Another thought
I think it would do wonders if the city took all the slumlords to
task and didn't allow them to let groups of people live in houses
illegally. Also force these homes to fix all code violations and the
landlords will either sell the homes because they
What is really interesting to watch in asbury is the fact that cookman
and individual people keep moving forward. Cookman is being led by
entrepreneurs and single family homes are being bought and renovated
by people who like and believe in the town. The stalled projects are
the
a week or so ago someone suggested here that perhaps MM would be
interested in taking over for Metro. Think it might have been Dan.
Does anyone have any more information in regard to that? I know MM
just raised approx 480 million a little while back to deploy so
perhaps they would be
Obviously this is a negative and will make outisders worry about the
viability of this town again (particularly looking at a half built
bldg). May also end up in another legal morass. However, this is
not disimilar to what is happening all over the country, so it is
not AP specific (i know
2 questions?
Isn't Partners still bound by the resolution agreement and technically
in default?
Any ideas what to do if MM leaves?
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here's a thought regarding taxpayer money or funds raised by
citizens/mm/asbury partners. Win or lose something special should
be done for this football team by this town. Show these kids (and
the younger ones who look up to them) what can happen with hard work
and dedication. It also sends
That was Articulate and Practical. A better focus for us would be
determining how to get the Green spaces back to what they should
be like getting plantings back into Bradley Park again. That is
feasible and would look beautiful. Scaling back the building is a
non-starter so lets focus
Thank you Werner.
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, wernerapnj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
Any chance you might have the link handy for the BCH story? Thank
you
Any chance you might have the link handy for the BCH story? Thank you
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dfsavgny [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
A comment left on the Real Deal. Very unlike the typical negative NJ
comments on the APP anytime there is even a good AP story (see
today's APP about
Does anybody have any insight or update about what transpired at the
executive session Friday night? The special meeting to discuss the
waterfront.
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Other than the 5th avenue pavillion all of the others have very little
architectural beauty. They are rectangular boxes and nothing like
what was there in old postcards. How about putting all of the
restoration effort and money into the bandshell and HoJo's and doing
it right. Knock the
A lot of the uncertainty about what is going on could be avoided if
there was a real effort to keep the oceanfrontasbury website updated.
Unfortunately that would mean someone could be held accountable for
progress dates so it won't happen. It would be invaluable to actually
have an updated,
People who live in glass front porches shouldn't throw stones. Just
kidding, couldn't resist.
==
Just get hold of the redeveloment plan documents/agreements and you
will see that progress is YEARS behind schedule.
This
instead of complaining about it, buy some stocks instead
the feds to the rescue...again.
Ok, since the banks, companies and many individuals screwed
upthe
feds come in again to help. To help the avg joe to screwup one mo
time.
Keep on spending.
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--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
instead of complaining about it, buy some stocks instead
Done deal my friend. In and out. Not a complaint, just an
observation.
Sometimes you have to have the guts to hold out instead of taking a
quick profit to make $100 just to watch HOV
Forget housing related stuff, those businesses are still troubled, you
want to buy retailers and tech off this rate cut. Retail has been
crushed and this will help and tech was already strong, has good
overseas exposure and also is a cyclicall that benefits from rate
cuts. Avoid the housing
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, Hinge [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
That's what you get to enjoy if you spend $190 a night
I guess i don't understand some posts regarding the Berkeley. So,
people complain that they don't want the oceanfront to look like the
mall of america and every other
@yahoogroups.com, dsher4 dsher4@ wrote:
--- In AsburyPark@yahoogroups.com, Hinge hinge98@ wrote:
That's what you get to enjoy if you spend $190 a night
I guess i don't understand some posts regarding the Berkeley.
So,
people complain that they don't want the oceanfront to look like
I hear you on keeping it unique, but those are all generalities and
not solutions to what it should look like and how you should take
advantage of asbury's intrinsic asssets as it relates to this
structure. I'm just curious how you think that should be done at the
Berkeley. Also who knows
Got thinking recently about the turmoil in the sub-prime and housing
market and the slower than expected build out in Asbury due to
Partners moving slower than expected. Might actually be a blessing
in disguise. Had Partners moved fast and 3100 condo's were built,
most of them would have
Yes but think about having someone like MM or say Metro or a real
residential developer in here in 2001 moving as fast as they could.
More would have been built and sold. You assume flippers. The
question, then, now or in the future, is what percentage? A high
percentage is what causes
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