Good Morning,

----- Original Message -----
From: "gav" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Thursday, October 16, 2008 2:47 AM
Subject: Re: [MD] growth and sustainability


gav
> okay someone please explain to me how a profit-based economic system (ie
capitalism) can be sustainable. ie how can we avoid the boom - bust - war
cycle that has characterised capitalism in practice for the past century or
so.

mel
a profit based economic system (and ultimately they all are
in operation, which I'll get to in a minute)  can be sustainable
in much the same way as an atmospheric system can be
sustainable.  After all it's not like an atmospher has high or
low pressure, still or wind, clear days and world-rocking
storms.  --a joke, but you see the point.

Animal populations do the same thing, oscillate.  Equilibrium
is merely operation in an 'average range' sense...more an
intellectual myth than a useful reflection of the real, as much
artifact of a conceptual snapshot in time as anything.

Operational economy is a dynamic, emergent social behavior
as seen in its agregate.  Economics is an intellectual attempt
to model the economy to try and understand it.  Don't confuse
the two.

Theintellectual attempt is a very young  endeavor, but a few
centuries old and there may have been significant boom-bust
cycles over millenia that crashed whole civilizations, 'composting
and fermenting' them into fodder for the next wave of aggregate
behavior by people.  Like the life-cycle of stars.

Best we not get too attached in the long run to thinking we have
somehow escaped that same behavior.

However, returning to my assertion that all economies utilize
profit.  The Rus merely used theirs to fund too-large a military
for their profit-load, hence it's collapse.    Chinese (post 1949)
went through numerous cycles as they discovered their
economy was barely manageable for anything but four-out-of-
five years of farm surplus to feed their population.

All the while the people kept working, individually, to create
what was in aggregate a shadow economy based on trade,
barter, 'illegal' buying and selling, and that "wild market" economy
was eventually recognized, (I'd love to know by whom) as a more
vital part of the probable success of stability for China than the
old five-year and great-leap planning could achieve.


gav
> of course i am presuming that we all consider depression and war things to
be avoided. (general assent here?)
>
mel
Not so fast...depression, at least the 'great' one, was a composite entity
of the natural wave-trough motion of oscillation magnified by a clear
case of "central planning" intervention by government.  They did in all
sincerity the best they could for all the right reasons and achieved the
worst possible outcome because they made all the wrong moves.

War is just the violent response of societies for any of several reasons
and a much longer more complex discussion.  Although there is some
good that comes from the effort, oddly enough.
Population mixing, cultural inter-fertilizing, subsequent trade, better
after-the-fact understanding, knowledge exchange, etc.

The PAIN of an outcome doesn't make it 'wrong', just individually
undesirable.

thanks--mel



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