Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

I won't read whatever argument Scott Adams might have made about long narratives, mostly because I doubt he has anything useful to say. But also because I *do* prioritize my time. It's not that my time is valuable. It's that if I didn't prioritize (and triage against people like Adams), I'd

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

: Saturday, April 18, 2020 7:26 PM To: friam@redfish.com Subject: Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations > Unfortunately, after a couple of attempts to read it, I couldn't understand > anything in your post except this part. My previous post was just under 300 > words. So, I decided to tr

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

> Unfortunately, after a couple of attempts to read it, I couldn't understand > anything in your post except this part. My previous post was just under 300 > words. So, I decided to try to make the next one under that mark as well. > > On 4/18/20 1:22 PM, Steven A Smith wrote: >> From whence

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Unfortunately, after a couple of attempts to read it, I couldn't understand anything in your post except this part. My previous post was just under 300 words. So, I decided to try to make the next one under that mark as well. On 4/18/20 1:22 PM, Steven A Smith wrote: > From whence (or wherest?)

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

cks...@gmail.com <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> > > > From: Friam On Behalf Of Eric Charles > Sent: Saturday, April 18, 2020 1:59 PM > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Gr

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Eric - > Cranky Nick, you really need to join a church. I think Nick's church IS this mail-list/congregation... and he (reluctantly) stands-in as a lay-preacher, though I think he spends more time trying to recruit others to that role.   It functions a bit like a UU church in some ways (a lot of

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

up' Subject: Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations But Eric, If, over his career, Nate's site gives a 2/3 vs 1/3 split 1,000 ti mes, and something near 333 times the 1/3 split wins, I think he gets to declare himself accurate How is that practicial? I.e., how can we base a practice on it

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

; > Clark University > > thompnicks...@gmail.com <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > >   > >   > > *From:* Friam *On Behalf Of *Eric Charles > *Sent:* Saturday, April 18, 2020 12:06 PM > *To:* The Friday

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

This list/thread(s) has been so prolific and pithy of late, I can hardly begin to respond to one thing before another (dozen shiny objects) catches my eye. ☣ ƃlǝu (reads like "blau"?) thus wroteth: > Now Marcus is just being sadistic. >8^D > > My own guess at a summary of Eric's stance is that

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

ril 18, 2020 1:59 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Subject: Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations If, over his career, Nate's site gives a 2/3 vs 1/3 split 1,000 ti mes, and something near 333 times the 1/3 split wins, I think he gets to declare himse

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

; > *From:* Friam *On Behalf Of *Eric Charles > *Sent:* Saturday, April 18, 2020 12:06 PM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > friam@redfish.com> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations > > > > Nick says - Nat

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Glen - > I think it's interesting that you seemed to have *flipped* your thinking > within the same post. You restate my point about conceptual metaphors by > saying models/computation merely *justifies* decisions/rhetoric. Then a few > paragraphs later, you suggest that's conflating language

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

iday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Subject: Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations Nick says - Nate constantly says that making such predictions is, strictly speaking, not his job. As long as what happens falls within the error of his prediction, he feels justifi

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Now Marcus is just being sadistic. >8^D My own guess at a summary of Eric's stance is that where we see qualities, we can, at will, invert the vision and see quantities. Fontana is a great source for distinguishing construction from evolution. But for me, BC Smith [†] is better for maintaining

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Nick says - Nate constantly says that making such predictions is, strictly speaking, not his job. As long as what happens falls within the error of his prediction, he feels justified in having made it. He will say things like, "actually we were right." I would prefer him to

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

I agree. Nate's not much more rigorous than the rest of us. And just like Justin Bieber or Britney Spears, he was probably ill-equipped to handle the steep increase in fame. Morlocks don't handle that sort of thing very well. We can get confused about who we are and what we do, maybe even

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

fessor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -Original Message- From: Friam On Behalf Of u?l? ? Sent: Saturday, April 18, 2020 10:17 AM To: FriAM Subject: Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations I thin

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Date: Saturday, April 18, 2020 at 9:07 AM To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' Subject: Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations Jon, Can you explain to me what in thunderation Eric’s comments on objects has to do with my comments on contingencies. I am sure there IS a connec

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

I think it's interesting that you seemed to have *flipped* your thinking within the same post. You restate my point about conceptual metaphors by saying models/computation merely *justifies* decisions/rhetoric. Then a few paragraphs later, you suggest that's conflating language with thought.

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

...@gmail.com <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam On Behalf Of Jon Zingale Sent: Saturday, April 18, 2020 9:46 AM To: friam@redfish.com Subject: Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations Eric, Bravo. Sure, maybe TLDR, but a won

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Eric, Bravo. Sure, maybe TLDR, but a wonderful read anyway. Jon .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Glen - Your diatribe reminds me of the way I used to frame my (rare) pitches in DC back during my time working in the "Decision Support Systems" division at  LANL.   I started out with "I'm here to help you NOT make a decision".   This appalled them, becuase "by golly, by gosh, they were Decision

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

ric Smith Sent: Friday, April 17, 2020 6:08 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group mailto:friam@redfish.com>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations Cranky Nick, you really need to join a church. Now, what most people wanted to know from Nate Silver is w

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

st NOT what we ferrets DO! It’s >> certainly not what we do if we ever expect to catch any prairie dogs. >> >> Oh, and: The problem is not that I need a religion; the problem is I >> already HAVE one and I don’t know what it is. >> >> Oh, and #2. “Enjoy

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

ds fo things. >> States can be real, and can even evolve deterministically, but may not be >> associated with any definite values for observables, because observables, >> when formalized and fully expressed through the formalization, are >> different kinds of things (they are a kin

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

! > It’s certainly not what we do if we ever expect to catch any prairie dogs. > > > Oh, and: The problem is not that I need a religion; the problem is I > already HAVE one and I don’t know what it is. > > Oh, and #2. “Enjoy these conversations” is, for me, vastly understate

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

impossible in that way, though I forget the reference and source. > Some fellow-philosopher complaining that “it was impossible to get > Wittgenstein to admit there was not a rhinoceros in the room." > > Eric > > > > > >> >> That’s all, >

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Sent: Friday, April 17, 2020 6:08 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Subject: Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations Cranky Nick, you really need to join a church. Now, what most people wanted to know from Nate Silver is whether Clinton was going to win the ele

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

And just in case it's not obvious, I enjoy these conversations, too ... however much of a jerk I may seem. They often provide a much needed break from whatever useless toil I end up in. "Oh! There's some lovely filth down here!" On April 17, 2020 5:07:36 PM PDT, David Eric Smith wrote: > I

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

t;mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> > > > -Original Message- > From: Friam mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> On > Behalf Of u?l? ? > Sent: Friday, April 17, 2020 4:45

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

So, if you're serious about *your* attempt to model Nate Silver, then you would find something in your experience that *means* something similar to what Nate means. And jargonal "expected value" <=> vernacular "I expect" isn't that thing. Your last paragraph comes closer. But you chose to frame

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

lt. That’s all, Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -Original Message- From: Friam On Behalf Of u?l? ? Sent: Friday, April 17, 2020 4:45 PM To

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Nick writes: < I must be a determinist at heart because I instinctively believe that to say an event is random is to confess one’s ignorance, one’s laziness, or both. > Deterministic systems can behave in an apparently random fashion with tiny

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Again, though, you seem to be allowing your metaphor to run away with you. When someone who does quantitative modeling says "expected value", they do NOT mean what the layperson means when they say "I expect X". We can pick apart your statement and accuse you of an ambiguity fallacy if we want.

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

y-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Date: Friday, April 17, 2020 at 2:59 PM To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' Subject: Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations Hi, everybody, This is Cranky-Nick, talking. This conversation is reminding me o

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

on Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -Original Message- From: Friam On Behalf Of u?l? ? Sent: Thursday, April 16, 2020 11:37 AM To: FriAM Subject: Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

I've quote-included what I think is the most important part of Dave's rant below your comment on consolidation of local outlets by right-leaning organizations. Dave's comment about "hard data" showing the model *extrapolations* being 20-50% higher than the numbers shown in local media. To my

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Of course, hacking is in fact #5. On 4/15/20, 1:34 PM, "Friam on behalf of Prof David West" wrote: True, it does advance an argument for a rational process (i.e. guidelines). But it also states that such a process can never be other than an idealization (as you note). There

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

True, it does advance an argument for a rational process (i.e. guidelines). But it also states that such a process can never be other than an idealization (as you note). There could be value in after-the-fact faking of a rational process, if the fake was used to inform and "improve" the

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

On Wed, Apr 15, 2020 at 10:53 AM Prof David West wrote: > ... > 2) There are always ways to ameliorate the Absolute Law. Those ways differ > by culture. Edward Hall compared how and where amelioration differs between > US and Mexican cultures. In the US the cop has latitude as to when and with >

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

That paper: https://users.ece.utexas.edu/~perry/education/SE-Intro/fakeit.pdf argues *for* guidelines for software development. So, it validates my point in the most direct sense. It *also* argues against inferring from Nick's idea that there might be such a thing as Laws of Software

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

irst, > IMHO. > > -J. > > > ---- Original message > From: Steven A Smith > Date: 4/14/20 23:41 (GMT+01:00) > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations > > Jochen - > Can you des

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

On 4/15/20 8:52 AM, Prof David West wrote: > 1) We do fetishize the law in the sense that if you run the red light and the > cop gives you a ticket there is no possible defense - you ARE guilty. In the > medical case, if you prescribe off-label and get sued, you will lose. > (Unless, of

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Frank, The last class I taught at the University of St. Thomas was "Philosophical Foundations of Computer Science." It was standing room only and 20 plus years later I still get emails from students lauding the class and thanking me for the experience. BTW, at the time St. Thomas had the

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

d nazism as the worst and most aggressive form. If we really want to understand how fascism works, we have to understand religion first, IMHO.-J. Original message From: Steven A Smith Date: 4/14/20 23:41 (GMT+01:00) To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group S

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Two points: 1) We do fetishize the law in the sense that if you run the red light and the cop gives you a ticket there is no possible defense - you ARE guilty. In the medical case, if you prescribe off-label and get sued, you will lose. (Unless, of course, the Judge Interprets the law , or the

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Steve, Are you the exception or the rule? Of the 350 engineering and science students in my freshman year at Carnegie nobody got a 4.0 average; the highest was 3.57 and the average was about 1.8. But I'm older than you and grade inflation started in the meantime. Thanks for your account of

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Frank - > I may have mentioned this before but physicists, chemists, engineers > etc. rarely talk about philosophy of science.  Social scientists, > particularly.psychologists, do much more.  Some mathematicians do > because they believe they are dealing with God. My undergrad career in Physics

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

glen wrote: "We don't write software that way." A contrarian position: David Parnas, "The Rational Design Process: How and Why to Fake It." davew On Wed, Apr 15, 2020, at 8:43 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote: > There are no "laws of scientific procedure". There's not even a > singular scientific method.

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

I may have mentioned this before but physicists, chemists, engineers etc. rarely talk about philosophy of science. Social scientists, particularly.psychologists, do much more. Some mathematicians do because they believe they are dealing with God. --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

And, by the way, Renee's son-in-law has lupus. So this fear-based shortage is directly threatening lives ... just in case you might wonder a little more about the consequences to individuals, apparently reserved for "good times". On 4/15/20 6:43 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote: > There are no "laws of

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

There are no "laws of scientific procedure". There's not even a singular scientific method. What we have are heuristics and best practices driven by repeatability and reproducibility. So, in order to build guidelines for *who* to give hydroxychloroquine to, how much to give them, and when to

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

re. Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -Original Message- From: Friam On Behalf Of u?l? ? Sent: Monday, April 13, 2020 4:03 PM To: FriAM Subject: Re: [FRIAM] anthr

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Glen - I appreciate the very clear and positive (albeit blunt) way you framed Dave's post, hopefully allowing the rest of us (including Dave) to continue the conversations implied in a positive and coherence-seeking manner.  I think Dave's rant referenced a number of important issues worth

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

s we experience every day or every week, like political > rallies, campaign speeches, ads and church services. > > -J. > > > ---- Original message > From: uǝlƃ ☣ > Date: 4/13/20 21:54 (GMT+01:00) > To: FriAM > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] anthropologica

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

wondering about things we experience every day or every week, like political rallies, campaign speeches, ads and church services.-J. Original message From: uǝlƃ ☣ Date: 4/13/20 21:54 (GMT+01:00) To: FriAM Subject: Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations I presume it's thi

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

My experience is that the cops have a LOT of preferential enforcement power. And my black friends seem to agree (inverse experiences). And it's not clear to me that this selective enforcement stops at the sheriffs and beat cop layer. I think many places have the leeway to "decriminalize" things

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Glen, You are correct, especially when I used all caps to shout my assertion. My only excuse is that I was writing to a specific audience who I do not expect to take me all that seriously. Also, a bit of habit. When I stood in front of the classroom for the first time and introduced myself to

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Excellent! Thanks for that qualifier. A remaining question is: When you state your CONCLUSION without a subjective qualifier, the audience is supposed to implicitly *hear* a qualifier. But when someone on MSNBC states their conclusions without the qualifer, you hear *authoritarian* assertions.

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

@gmail.com > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > -Original Message- > From: Friam On Behalf Of u?l? ? > Sent: Monday, April 13, 2020 1:53 PM > To: FriAM > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations > > I presume it's this one:

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

It was not my intent to make any assertions, or claims. merely to offer completely subjective observations - "anecdotal data" as it were. Yes, there is a not-so-subliminal editorial slant behind the observations. But that slant is pretty obvious and quite familiar to those on the list: - I do

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

 On Tue, Apr 14, 2020 at 8:27 AM uǝlƃ ☣ wrote: > The problem doesn't lie with any one of Dave's questionable assertions. > The problem lies with his narrative arc. That arc argues that *others* (not > Dave) claim non-credible expertise. Yet Dave implies over and over again > that he has such

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

The problem doesn't lie with any one of Dave's questionable assertions. The problem lies with his narrative arc. That arc argues that *others* (not Dave) claim non-credible expertise. Yet Dave implies over and over again that he has such credibility. Each list item and conclusion are replete

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

l-be-available-next-year-82004037679 From: Friam on behalf of Owen Densmore Sent: Monday, April 13, 2020 9:44 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Subject: Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations Nicely done David. On Mon, Apr 13, 2020 at 9:35 AM Joc

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

have freedom of speech in EU & US, but > there is no freedom of speech in China. I believe that's a major difference > between EU & US and China. > > -J. > > > Original message > From: Prof David West > Date: 4/12/20 20:52 (GMT+01:00) > To: fri

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

/> > > > -Original Message- > From: Friam mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> On > Behalf Of u?l? ? > Sent: Monday, April 13, 2020 1:53 PM > To: FriAM mailto:friam@redfish.com>> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations > > I

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

How much do you push? How many patients does it help? Would it be like the current shelves at Target a month ago ... where Renee' noticed that even though hydrogen peroxide sterilizes, the shelves were FULL of it, but there were no isopropyl alcohol bottles anywhere in the store. How much good

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

com https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -Original Message- From: Friam On Behalf Of u?l? ? Sent: Monday, April 13, 2020 1:53 PM To: FriAM Subject: Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations I presume it's this one: Die geheimen Gene: Das Geheimnis der Kirche und die soziale DN

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

I presume it's this one: Die geheimen Gene: Das Geheimnis der Kirche und die soziale DNA https://books.google.com/books?id=lpqUDwAAQBAJ=0=frontcover=inauthor:%22Jochen+Fromm%22=en=newbks_fb No copies seem to be available. I also assume propaganda plays a prominent role in your explanation. I

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Marcus From: Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣ Sent: Monday, April 13, 2020 11:59 AM To: FriAM Subject: Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations Hm. The only reason it's wrong to harness people is because there's no credible alternative. If we had a well-connected safety net so that a harnessed

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Link! I should buy the German version and see if I can read some of it. The last time I tried that was with Faust after my German II semester in college ... terrible failure. On 4/13/20 10:58 AM, Jochen Fromm wrote: > America under Trump moves clearly towards an authoritarian system. When she

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

Hm. The only reason it's wrong to harness people is because there's no credible alternative. If we had a well-connected safety net so that a harnessed person could doff one harness, survive without a harness for awhile, then don a different harness, then harnessing would be a good thing. Its

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

that to people is the real problem.  It's usually called leadership and not just an indication of being a psychopath. Marcus From: Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣ Sent: Monday, April 13, 2020 11:24 AM To: FriAM Subject: Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations   That's a good

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

called leadership and not just an indication of being a psychopath. Marcus From: Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣ Sent: Monday, April 13, 2020 11:24 AM To: FriAM Subject: Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations That's a good point. I suppose there are a number of

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

That's a good point. I suppose there are a number of Eco's bullets that ride alongside shared purpose: (3-5), (7), (9), (10), (12), & (14). But shared purpose is only dangerous, I think, if it's *unified* or reduced to a single dimension. Multi-objective optimization would (then) be less

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

nizers are undeveloped fascists. As soon as there is a group identity, run. Marcus From: Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣ Sent: Monday, April 13, 2020 9:56 AM To: FriAM Subject: Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations I've often wondered about accusations that corpo

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

I've often wondered about accusations that corporatism and fascism are fundamentally linked. Umberto Eco's essay on Ur-Fascism always seemed to be the best circumscription, to me. But I've seen many others talk about the breakdown of the boundary between government and corporations as a

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

J. Original message From: Prof David West Date: 4/12/20 20:52 (GMT+01:00) To: friam@redfish.com Subject: [FRIAM] anthropological observations I have been in Amsterdam for the past year and had the opportunity to put on my anthropologist's hat and observe cultural differences

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

A different point of view. Or perhaps David will regard it as confirming data:

[FRIAM] anthropological observations

I have been in Amsterdam for the past year and had the opportunity to put on my anthropologist's hat and observe cultural differences in reaction to the Covid-19 virus. I returned to the US two weeks ago and just completed a two-day auto journey from Wisconsin to Utah — also in full