Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Robert]

We looked at that a week ago and asked the same question and came up 
with a plausible answer.   China mobile services are 90% month to month 
and with people confined to their domiciles they can switch to wifi 
calling and cancel service.


On 3/24/20 1:14 PM, Matt Hoppes wrote:
Regarding the China numbers... there are 3 Chinese mobile telephone 
companies, all owned by the government.


In February, they reported a TOTAL (all 3) loss of 10 million + lines.
Now, you can attribute some of those to job loss... but not all of them.

Deaths?  I suspect the death count in China is massively underreported.




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Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Adam Moffett]

HrmmmIt looks like I conflated a total unemployment figure from 
December with an "Urban unemployment" figure from February. My numbers 
are a little off kilter.  Allegedly so are theirs. Apparently the "urban 
unemployment" number is considered a very low count because there are 
200 million migrant workers who don't count as "urban" in their census.  
Apparently they don't know how many unemployed they really have.


In any case the scale of the numbers over there is big enough that 20 
million phone subscriptions isn't far from a rounding error.



On 3/24/2020 8:46 PM, Adam Moffett wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-23/china-s-mobile-carriers-lose-15-million-users-as-virus-bites 



Apparently it's about 20 million mobile phone subscriptions canceled 
over the course of January and February combined.  Except they have 
1.6 Billion mobile subscriptions.  That's about 0.6% drop each month.  
If you had 2000 subscribers that'd be like 12 cancelling in January 
and 12 cancelling in February.  You would probably notice, but it's 
not as insane as the raw number would imply.


They have a workforce of around 750,000,000. 
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/employed-persons



Their unemployment rate went from 3.6% in December to 6.2% in 
February. 
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/china-economy-millions-lose-their-jobs-as-unemployment-spikes.html


A change of 2.5%, which is 18,750,000 people.  How many of them paid 
for a phone for a spouse/kid/girlfriend?


Sorry, I'm thinking that 20,000,000 mobile phone subscriptions lost 
actually seems to add up just fine.




On 3/24/2020 4:14 PM, Matt Hoppes wrote:
Regarding the China numbers... there are 3 Chinese mobile telephone 
companies, all owned by the government.


In February, they reported a TOTAL (all 3) loss of 10 million + lines.
Now, you can attribute some of those to job loss... but not all of them.

Deaths?  I suspect the death count in China is massively underreported.



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Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Adam Moffett]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-23/china-s-mobile-carriers-lose-15-million-users-as-virus-bites

Apparently it's about 20 million mobile phone subscriptions canceled 
over the course of January and February combined.  Except they have 1.6 
Billion mobile subscriptions.  That's about 0.6% drop each month.  If 
you had 2000 subscribers that'd be like 12 cancelling in January and 12 
cancelling in February.  You would probably notice, but it's not as 
insane as the raw number would imply.


They have a workforce of around 750,000,000. 
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/employed-persons



Their unemployment rate went from 3.6% in December to 6.2% in February. 
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/china-economy-millions-lose-their-jobs-as-unemployment-spikes.html


A change of 2.5%, which is 18,750,000 people.  How many of them paid for 
a phone for a spouse/kid/girlfriend?


Sorry, I'm thinking that 20,000,000 mobile phone subscriptions lost 
actually seems to add up just fine.




On 3/24/2020 4:14 PM, Matt Hoppes wrote:
Regarding the China numbers... there are 3 Chinese mobile telephone 
companies, all owned by the government.


In February, they reported a TOTAL (all 3) loss of 10 million + lines.
Now, you can attribute some of those to job loss... but not all of them.

Deaths?  I suspect the death count in China is massively underreported.



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Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Steve Jones]

so you dont trust chinas health numbers, but you do trust chinas mobile
numbers? please provide a link to the related links to documentation of the
10 million lines dropped


On Tue, Mar 24, 2020 at 3:15 PM Matt Hoppes <
mattli...@rivervalleyinternet.net> wrote:

> Regarding the China numbers... there are 3 Chinese mobile telephone
> companies, all owned by the government.
>
> In February, they reported a TOTAL (all 3) loss of 10 million + lines.
> Now, you can attribute some of those to job loss... but not all of them.
>
> Deaths?  I suspect the death count in China is massively underreported.
>
> --
> AF mailing list
> AF@af.afmug.com
> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>
-- 
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AF@af.afmug.com
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Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Adam Moffett]

Source for this info?

On 3/24/2020 4:14 PM, Matt Hoppes wrote:
Regarding the China numbers... there are 3 Chinese mobile telephone 
companies, all owned by the government.


In February, they reported a TOTAL (all 3) loss of 10 million + lines.
Now, you can attribute some of those to job loss... but not all of them.

Deaths?  I suspect the death count in China is massively underreported.



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AF@af.afmug.com
http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Matt Hoppes]

Regarding the China numbers... there are 3 Chinese mobile telephone 
companies, all owned by the government.


In February, they reported a TOTAL (all 3) loss of 10 million + lines.
Now, you can attribute some of those to job loss... but not all of them.

Deaths?  I suspect the death count in China is massively underreported.

--
AF mailing list
AF@af.afmug.com
http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Matt Hoppes]

They shot their one and only infected person.

On 3/19/20 2:37 PM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
I still believe North Korea has a huge problem that they are covering 
up.  Especially in the labor camps.  Communal sleeping barns etc.  No 
sanitation facilities.

*From:* Bill Prince
*Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:34 PM
*To:* af@af.afmug.com
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

Only if they attribute it properly. There is plenty of data to indicate 
that deaths have been incorrectly attributed,


bp


On 3/19/2020 11:09 AM, James Howard wrote:

the death count is the death count



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Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Steve Jones]

19, 2020, James Howard  wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> are you saying that you're not revolting now?   Makes me think of the
>>>>>> 3 Stooges line "I resemble that remark"..
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Oh wait.  Did you mean that people will start to revolt?  Hmmm  I
>>>>>> thought you meant people were going to be revolting and most people 
>>>>>> already
>>>>>> are.
>>>>>> --
>>>>>> *From:* AF  on behalf of Jason McKemie <
>>>>>> j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>
>>>>>> *Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:37:51 PM
>>>>>> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
>>>>>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then or you're going to
>>>>>> have people revolting (myself included).
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince 
>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The isolation can not last more than a few weeks, or maybe a month -
>>>>>>> month and a half. At that point, we should have reduced the number of
>>>>>>> walking infections without symptoms, and maybe have the ability to 
>>>>>>> actually
>>>>>>> test for it. After that, it's a crap shoot.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> bp
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> With "flatten the curve" as your primary tool expected to take years
>>>>>>> and people only able to half pay attention for a few weeks, we'll have 
>>>>>>> to
>>>>>>> find something else.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> -
>>>>>>> Mike Hammett
>>>>>>> Intelligent Computing Solutions <http://www.ics-il.com/>
>>>>>>> <https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL>
>>>>>>> <https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb>
>>>>>>> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions>
>>>>>>> <https://twitter.com/ICSIL>
>>>>>>> Midwest Internet Exchange <http://www.midwest-ix.com/>
>>>>>>> <https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix>
>>>>>>> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange>
>>>>>>> <https://twitter.com/mdwestix>
>>>>>>> The Brothers WISP <http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/>
>>>>>>> <https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> <https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg>
>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>> *From: *"Bill Prince"  
>>>>>>> *To: *af@af.afmug.com
>>>>>>> *Sent: *Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:54:45 PM
>>>>>>> *Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The "plan" (no jokes please) seems to be short term isolation to try
>>>>>>> and flatten the curve. With that, all the infected people not having
>>>>>>> symptoms will become immune (to some extent) and no longer be 
>>>>>>> contagious. I
>>>>>>> don't think we can keep people bottled up for more than a few weeks.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> bp
>>>>>>> 
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On 3/19/2020 12:49 PM, Adam Moffett wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is?
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all
>>>>>>> international trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run 
>>>>>>> it's
>>>>>>> course, or so it seems to me.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't ov

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Adam Moffett]

 that people will start
to revolt? Hmmm  I thought you meant
people were going to be revolting and most
people already are.


*From:* AF mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com>> on behalf of
Jason McKemie
mailto:j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>>
*Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:37:51 PM
            *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past
then or you're going to have people revolting
(myself included).

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince
mailto:part15...@gmail.com>> wrote:

The isolation can not last more than a few
weeks, or maybe a month - month and a
half. At that point, we should have
reduced the number of walking infections
without symptoms, and maybe have the
ability to actually test for it. After
that, it's a crap shoot.


bp


On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote:

With "flatten the curve" as your primary
tool expected to take years and people
only able to half pay attention for a few
weeks, we'll have to find something else.



-
Mike Hammett
Intelligent Computing Solutions
<http://www.ics-il.com/>

<https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL><https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb><https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions><https://twitter.com/ICSIL>
Midwest Internet Exchange
<http://www.midwest-ix.com/>

<https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix><https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange><https://twitter.com/mdwestix>
The Brothers WISP
<http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/>
<https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp>



<https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg>


*From: *"Bill Prince"

<mailto:part15...@gmail.com>
            *To: *af@af.afmug.com
<mailto:af@af.afmug.com>
*Sent: *Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:54:45 PM
*Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

The "plan" (no jokes please) seems to be
short term isolation to try and flatten
the curve. With that, all the infected
people not having symptoms will become
immune (to some extent) and no longer be
contagious. I don't think we can keep
people bottled up for more than a few weeks.


bp


On 3/19/2020 12:49 PM, Adam Moffett wrote:

Has anybody laid out what the long
term plan is?

We can't keep everybody at home
forever and we can't stop all
international trade and travel so
sooner or later the virus has to run
it's course, or so it seems to me.

I know we're trying to slow down the
spread so we don't overwhelm the
hospital capacity and that's great.
Are we going to somehow reduce social
isolation over time in a controlled
way, or will social isolation end
organically as people get sick of
staying home?


On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:

I dont know how many times i need
to point out this logic

The US is undercounted, thats a
gi

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Robert]

were going to be revolting and most people
already are.


*From:* AF mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com>> on behalf of
Jason McKemie mailto:j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>>
*Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:37:51 PM
            *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past
then or you're going to have people revolting
(myself included).

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince
mailto:part15...@gmail.com>> wrote:

The isolation can not last more than a few
weeks, or maybe a month - month and a half.
At that point, we should have reduced the
number of walking infections without
symptoms, and maybe have the ability to
actually test for it. After that, it's a
crap shoot.


bp


On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote:

With "flatten the curve" as your primary
tool expected to take years and people
only able to half pay attention for a few
weeks, we'll have to find something else.



-
Mike Hammett
Intelligent Computing Solutions
<http://www.ics-il.com/>

<https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL><https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb><https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions><https://twitter.com/ICSIL>
Midwest Internet Exchange
<http://www.midwest-ix.com/>

<https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix><https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange><https://twitter.com/mdwestix>
The Brothers WISP
<http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/>
<https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp>



<https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg>


*From: *"Bill Prince"

<mailto:part15...@gmail.com>
    *To: *af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>
*Sent: *Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:54:45 PM
*Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

The "plan" (no jokes please) seems to be
short term isolation to try and flatten
the curve. With that, all the infected
people not having symptoms will become
immune (to some extent) and no longer be
contagious. I don't think we can keep
people bottled up for more than a few weeks.


bp


On 3/19/2020 12:49 PM, Adam Moffett wrote:

Has anybody laid out what the long
term plan is?

We can't keep everybody at home
forever and we can't stop all
international trade and travel so
sooner or later the virus has to run
it's course, or so it seems to me.

I know we're trying to slow down the
spread so we don't overwhelm the
hospital capacity and that's great. 
Are we going to somehow reduce social
isolation over time in a controlled
way, or will social isolation end
organically as people get sick of
staying home?


On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:

I dont know how many times i need
to point out this logic

The US is undercounted, thats a
given. undercounting does not
equate hidden numbers of magnitude

Heres the logic thats completely
 

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Bill Prince]

en bigger problems than us. Consider that some
  of the data suggests 10-20% of the infected will
  need hospitalized you start to grasp the real
  threat to the healthcare system. Trump knows all
  this, he was probably briefed with the numbers
  over a month ago. He would not be tanking the
  economy right now if this wasn't a real threat of
  happening. If it wasn't for the travel ban we
  would probably be right there with Italy as we
  speak...


  On Fri, Mar 20,
2020 at 12:21 AM Mathew Howard <mhoward...@gmail.com>
wrote:
  
  
It's especially bad when
  revolting people revolt...


  On Thu, Mar
19, 2020 at 11:01 PM Jason McKemie <j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>
wrote:
  
  People
are revolting, but they will start to
revolt...

On Thursday, March 19, 2020, James Howard
<ja...@litewire.net>
wrote:

  
 are you saying that you're
  not revolting now?   Makes me think of
  the 3 Stooges line "I resemble that
  remark"..
  
  
  Oh wait.  Did you mean that
people will start to revolt? 
Hmmm  I thought you meant people
were going to be revolting and most
people already are.


From: AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com>
on behalf of Jason McKemie <j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 19,
2020 8:37:51 PM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave
                Users Group
        Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT:
virus anomalies
   


  Yeah, you can't have
businesses closed past then or
you're going to have people
revolting (myself included).
  
  
On
  Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill
  Prince <part15...@gmail.com>
  wrote:


  
The isolation can not last
  more than a few weeks, or
  maybe a month - month and a
  half. At that point, we should
  have reduced the number of
  walking infections without
  symptoms, and maybe have the
  ability to actually test for
  it. After that, it's a crap
  shoot. 



bp



On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike
  Hammett wrote:


  With
"flatten the curve" as your
primary tool expected to
take years and people only

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Adam Moffett]

were going to be revolting and most people
already are.


*From:* AF mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com>> on behalf of
Jason McKemie mailto:j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>>
*Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:37:51 PM
            *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then
or you're going to have people revolting (myself
included).

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince
mailto:part15...@gmail.com>> wrote:

The isolation can not last more than a few
weeks, or maybe a month - month and a half.
At that point, we should have reduced the
number of walking infections without
symptoms, and maybe have the ability to
actually test for it. After that, it's a
crap shoot.


bp


On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote:

With "flatten the curve" as your primary
tool expected to take years and people only
able to half pay attention for a few weeks,
we'll have to find something else.



-
Mike Hammett
Intelligent Computing Solutions
<http://www.ics-il.com/>

<https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL><https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb><https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions><https://twitter.com/ICSIL>
Midwest Internet Exchange
<http://www.midwest-ix.com/>

<https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix><https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange><https://twitter.com/mdwestix>
The Brothers WISP
<http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/>
<https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp>



<https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg>


*From: *"Bill Prince" 
<mailto:part15...@gmail.com>
    *To: *af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>
*Sent: *Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:54:45 PM
*Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

The "plan" (no jokes please) seems to be
short term isolation to try and flatten the
curve. With that, all the infected people
not having symptoms will become immune (to
some extent) and no longer be contagious. I
don't think we can keep people bottled up
for more than a few weeks.


bp


On 3/19/2020 12:49 PM, Adam Moffett wrote:

Has anybody laid out what the long term
plan is?

We can't keep everybody at home forever
and we can't stop all international
trade and travel so sooner or later the
virus has to run it's course, or so it
seems to me.

I know we're trying to slow down the
spread so we don't overwhelm the
hospital capacity and that's great. 
Are we going to somehow reduce social
isolation over time in a controlled
way, or will social isolation end
organically as people get sick of
staying home?


On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:

I dont know how many times i need
to point out this logic

The US is undercounted, thats a
given. undercounting does not
equate hidden numbers of magnitude

Heres the logic thats completely
being ignored

The deaths associated with COVID19

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Bill Prince]

t;mhoward...@gmail.com>
wrote:
  
  
It's especially bad when revolting
  people revolt...


  On Thu, Mar 19,
2020 at 11:01 PM Jason McKemie <j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>
wrote:
  
  People are
revolting, but they will start to revolt...

On Thursday, March 19, 2020, James Howard <ja...@litewire.net>
wrote:

  
 are you saying that you're not
  revolting now?   Makes me think of the 3
  Stooges line "I resemble that
  remark"..
  
  
  Oh wait.  Did you mean that people
will start to revolt?  Hmmm  I
thought you meant people were going to
be revolting and most people already
are.


From: AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com>
on behalf of Jason McKemie <j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020
8:37:51 PM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users
            Group
    Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus
anomalies
   


  Yeah, you can't have
businesses closed past then or you're
going to have people revolting (myself
included).
  
  
On
  Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill
  Prince <part15...@gmail.com>
  wrote:


  
The isolation can not last more
  than a few weeks, or maybe a month
  - month and a half. At that point,
  we should have reduced the number
  of walking infections without
  symptoms, and maybe have the
  ability to actually test for it.
  After that, it's a crap shoot. 



bp



On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike
  Hammett wrote:


  With
"flatten the curve" as your
primary tool expected to take
years and people only able to
half pay attention for a few
weeks, we'll have to find
something else.


  
  -
  Mike Hammett
  Intelligent
Computing Solutions
  
  Midwest
Internet Exchange
  
  The
Brothers WISP
  


  


From:
  "Bill Prince" 
  To: af@af.afmug.

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Robert]

i.e. 80% unreported unless you are someone famous or very rich...   
Sounds like that doctor that was saying over 50K cases in the US four 
days ago was spot on...


On 3/20/20 10:52 AM, Craig Baird wrote:
Based on recent experience, I don't think the published infection 
rates are anywhere close to accurate.  Why do I say that?  My 10 yo. 
daughter came down with something yesterday morning.  She came in our 
bedroom coughing, wheezing and short of breath.  She had a low-grade 
fever around 100.  We have several kids with asthma, so we gave her a 
breathing treatment using a nebulizer with albuterol sulfate.  Then we 
called our local clinic to see if we could get her into a doctor.  
After telling the attendant about the situation, instead of making an 
appointment, she referred us to a Utah state COVID-19 hotline.  We 
called that hotline, and repeated the symptoms.  That person told us 
that due because test kits are in short supply, unless there is severe 
illness, they are telling everyone who calls to simply 
self-quarantine, and call back if things get worse.


How can you rely on any infection statistics if they're only sampling 
those that are severely affected?  It's obvious to me that the 
published statistics don't represent the number of people infected.  
Rather, they represent the number of severely ill people who are 
infected.  Those with mild illness are not being included in the 
data.  At least in Utah.


Craig


On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 8:34 AM Steve Jones <mailto:thatoneguyst...@gmail.com>> wrote:


So far population infection rates haven't hit more than 1 percent
anywhere have they

On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:07 AM Kurt Fankhauser
mailto:lists.wavel...@gmail.com>> wrote:

I'm on the county health board here, they are
extremely worried about what is to come. They say the "peak"
and "flattening" isn't expected till Mid May. They have not
released that to the public yet because they don't want to
create panic but sounds like this lockdown could be a new way
of life for at least a few months. They are also talking about
the possibility of refrigerated semi trailers for the dead
bodies if they get that many. Our county population is over
40,000 and between the two hospitals here they have only 8
ventilators. If just one half of 1 percent of the population
here needs critical care that is over 200 people. The two
hospitals here are only setup for a couple dozen ICU beds
each. Traditionally trauma patients that come in here are
forwarded to one of the bigger cities which will not be an
option due to overstretched resources in the bigger cities and
them having even bigger problems than us. Consider that some
of the data suggests 10-20% of the infected will need
hospitalized you start to grasp the real threat to the
healthcare system. Trump knows all this, he was probably
briefed with the numbers over a month ago. He would not be
tanking the economy right now if this wasn't a real threat of
happening. If it wasn't for the travel ban we would probably
be right there with Italy as we speak...

On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 12:21 AM Mathew Howard
mailto:mhoward...@gmail.com>> wrote:

It's especially bad when revolting people revolt...

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 11:01 PM Jason McKemie
mailto:j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>> wrote:

People are revolting, but they will start to revolt...

On Thursday, March 19, 2020, James Howard
mailto:ja...@litewire.net>> wrote:

are you saying that you're not revolting now? 
 Makes me think of the 3 Stooges line "I resemble
that remark"..

Oh wait.  Did you mean that people will start to
revolt?  Hmmm  I thought you meant people were
going to be revolting and most people already are.


*From:* AF mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com>> on behalf of
Jason McKemie mailto:j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>>
*Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:37:51 PM
        *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then
or you're going to have people revolting (myself
included).

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince
mailto:part15...@gmail.com>>
wrote:

The isolation can not last m

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Adam Moffett]

A high school friend of mine has a 3yr old who just came down with a 
coughing, wheezing respiratory infection with fever.  In the absence of 
testing it's hard to know if that's Covid-19 or just a cold.  He'll get 
over it and get better and then we'll never know for sure.



On 3/20/2020 1:52 PM, Craig Baird wrote:
Based on recent experience, I don't think the published infection 
rates are anywhere close to accurate.  Why do I say that?  My 10 yo. 
daughter came down with something yesterday morning.  She came in our 
bedroom coughing, wheezing and short of breath.  She had a low-grade 
fever around 100.  We have several kids with asthma, so we gave her a 
breathing treatment using a nebulizer with albuterol sulfate.  Then we 
called our local clinic to see if we could get her into a doctor.  
After telling the attendant about the situation, instead of making an 
appointment, she referred us to a Utah state COVID-19 hotline.  We 
called that hotline, and repeated the symptoms.  That person told us 
that due because test kits are in short supply, unless there is severe 
illness, they are telling everyone who calls to simply 
self-quarantine, and call back if things get worse.


How can you rely on any infection statistics if they're only sampling 
those that are severely affected?  It's obvious to me that the 
published statistics don't represent the number of people infected.  
Rather, they represent the number of severely ill people who are 
infected.  Those with mild illness are not being included in the 
data.  At least in Utah.


Craig


On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 8:34 AM Steve Jones <mailto:thatoneguyst...@gmail.com>> wrote:


So far population infection rates haven't hit more than 1 percent
anywhere have they

On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:07 AM Kurt Fankhauser
mailto:lists.wavel...@gmail.com>> wrote:

I'm on the county health board here, they are
extremely worried about what is to come. They say the "peak"
and "flattening" isn't expected till Mid May. They have not
released that to the public yet because they don't want to
create panic but sounds like this lockdown could be a new way
of life for at least a few months. They are also talking about
the possibility of refrigerated semi trailers for the dead
bodies if they get that many. Our county population is over
40,000 and between the two hospitals here they have only 8
ventilators. If just one half of 1 percent of the population
here needs critical care that is over 200 people. The two
hospitals here are only setup for a couple dozen ICU beds
each. Traditionally trauma patients that come in here are
forwarded to one of the bigger cities which will not be an
option due to overstretched resources in the bigger cities and
them having even bigger problems than us. Consider that some
of the data suggests 10-20% of the infected will need
hospitalized you start to grasp the real threat to the
healthcare system. Trump knows all this, he was probably
briefed with the numbers over a month ago. He would not be
tanking the economy right now if this wasn't a real threat of
happening. If it wasn't for the travel ban we would probably
be right there with Italy as we speak...

On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 12:21 AM Mathew Howard
mailto:mhoward...@gmail.com>> wrote:

It's especially bad when revolting people revolt...

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 11:01 PM Jason McKemie
mailto:j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>> wrote:

People are revolting, but they will start to revolt...

On Thursday, March 19, 2020, James Howard
mailto:ja...@litewire.net>> wrote:

are you saying that you're not revolting now? 
 Makes me think of the 3 Stooges line "I resemble
that remark"..

Oh wait.  Did you mean that people will start to
revolt?  Hmmm  I thought you meant people were
going to be revolting and most people already are.


*From:* AF mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com>> on behalf of
Jason McKemie mailto:j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>>
*Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:37:51 PM
        *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then
or you're going to have people revolting (myself
included).

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Craig Baird]

Based on recent experience, I don't think the published infection rates are
anywhere close to accurate.  Why do I say that?  My 10 yo. daughter came
down with something yesterday morning.  She came in our bedroom coughing,
wheezing and short of breath.  She had a low-grade fever around 100.  We
have several kids with asthma, so we gave her a breathing treatment using a
nebulizer with albuterol sulfate.  Then we called our local clinic to see
if we could get her into a doctor.  After telling the attendant about the
situation, instead of making an appointment, she referred us to a Utah
state COVID-19 hotline.  We called that hotline, and repeated the
symptoms.  That person told us that due because test kits are in short
supply, unless there is severe illness, they are telling everyone who calls
to simply self-quarantine, and call back if things get worse.

How can you rely on any infection statistics if they're only sampling those
that are severely affected?  It's obvious to me that the published
statistics don't represent the number of people infected.  Rather, they
represent the number of severely ill people who are infected.  Those with
mild illness are not being included in the data.  At least in Utah.

Craig


On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 8:34 AM Steve Jones 
wrote:

> So far population infection rates haven't hit more than 1 percent anywhere
> have they
>
> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:07 AM Kurt Fankhauser 
> wrote:
>
>> I'm on the county health board here, they are extremely worried about
>> what is to come. They say the "peak" and "flattening" isn't expected till
>> Mid May. They have not released that to the public yet because they don't
>> want to create panic but sounds like this lockdown could be a new way of
>> life for at least a few months. They are also talking about the possibility
>> of refrigerated semi trailers for the dead bodies if they get that many.
>> Our county population is over 40,000 and between the two hospitals here
>> they have only 8 ventilators. If just one half of 1 percent of the
>> population here needs critical care that is over 200 people. The two
>> hospitals here are only setup for a couple dozen ICU beds each.
>> Traditionally trauma patients that come in here are forwarded to one of the
>> bigger cities which will not be an option due to overstretched resources in
>> the bigger cities and them having even bigger problems than us. Consider
>> that some of the data suggests 10-20% of the infected will need
>> hospitalized you start to grasp the real threat to the healthcare system.
>> Trump knows all this, he was probably briefed with the numbers over a month
>> ago. He would not be tanking the economy right now if this wasn't a real
>> threat of happening. If it wasn't for the travel ban we would probably be
>> right there with Italy as we speak...
>>
>> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 12:21 AM Mathew Howard 
>> wrote:
>>
>>> It's especially bad when revolting people revolt...
>>>
>>> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 11:01 PM Jason McKemie <
>>> j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> People are revolting, but they will start to revolt...
>>>>
>>>> On Thursday, March 19, 2020, James Howard  wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> are you saying that you're not revolting now?   Makes me think of the
>>>>> 3 Stooges line "I resemble that remark"..
>>>>>
>>>>> Oh wait.  Did you mean that people will start to revolt?  Hmmm....  I
>>>>> thought you meant people were going to be revolting and most people 
>>>>> already
>>>>> are.
>>>>> --
>>>>> *From:* AF  on behalf of Jason McKemie <
>>>>> j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>
>>>>> *Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:37:51 PM
>>>>> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
>>>>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>>>>>
>>>>> Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then or you're going to
>>>>> have people revolting (myself included).
>>>>>
>>>>> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince 
>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> The isolation can not last more than a few weeks, or maybe a month -
>>>>>> month and a half. At that point, we should have reduced the number of
>>>>>> walking infections without symptoms, and maybe have the ability to 
>>>>>> actually
>>>>>> test for it. After that, it's a crap shoot.
>>>>>>
>>>>>&

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Steve Jones]

That is a concern I have around here, farmers are aging out, kids not
taking over, may be a lot of opportunity to buy the farm

On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 10:43 AM  wrote:

> Cows will keep growing, hay keeps growing, farmers will keep planting.
> One single farmer can create an enormous amount of wheat.
>
> *From:* Adam Moffett
> *Sent:* Friday, March 20, 2020 9:24 AM
> *To:* af@af.afmug.com
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>
>
> If people get hungry enough they might do anything.  It's not a matter of
> being inherently good or evil.  People will rationalize bad behavior to
> fulfill basic needs.
>
> Remember the warning label: *Humans under stress may exhibit poor
> behavior*
> *"I'm only hijacking this produce truck to feed my family.  I'm not really
> a bad guy." *
>
> I would disagree with an "overnight" time scale.  If supply was disrupted
> for a few months then it might be different.
>
>
> On 3/20/2020 11:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
>
> All my life I have heard that if we have a nationwide or worldwide
> catastrophe that the supermarkets would be empty overnight and food trucks
> would be getting hijacked on the highways.  Didn’t happen.  Don’t think it
> is gonna happen.  People are inherently good.  It is an old debate.  David
> Hume vs Rousseau.
>
> *From:* Steve Jones
> *Sent:* Friday, March 20, 2020 8:36 AM
> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>
> Too many people talking about worst case like its expected. Anyone who
> does that is incompetent
>
> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 1:14 AM Jason McKemie <
> j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com> wrote:
>
>> No, we have a media problem, views and clicks pay, and panic gets more of
>> those than anything else. Not that there isn't an issue, but we're
>> "capitalizing" on it the most efficiently.
>>
>> On Friday, March 20, 2020, Kurt Fankhauser 
>> wrote:
>>
>>> I'm on the county health board here, they are extremely worried about
>>> what is to come. They say the "peak" and "flattening" isn't expected till
>>> Mid May. They have not released that to the public yet because they don't
>>> want to create panic but sounds like this lockdown could be a new way of
>>> life for at least a few months. They are also talking about the possibility
>>> of refrigerated semi trailers for the dead bodies if they get that many.
>>> Our county population is over 40,000 and between the two hospitals here
>>> they have only 8 ventilators. If just one half of 1 percent of the
>>> population here needs critical care that is over 200 people. The two
>>> hospitals here are only setup for a couple dozen ICU beds each.
>>> Traditionally trauma patients that come in here are forwarded to one of the
>>> bigger cities which will not be an option due to overstretched resources in
>>> the bigger cities and them having even bigger problems than us. Consider
>>> that some of the data suggests 10-20% of the infected will need
>>> hospitalized you start to grasp the real threat to the healthcare system.
>>> Trump knows all this, he was probably briefed with the numbers over a month
>>> ago. He would not be tanking the economy right now if this wasn't a real
>>> threat of happening. If it wasn't for the travel ban we would probably be
>>> right there with Italy as we speak...
>>>
>>> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 12:21 AM Mathew Howard 
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> It's especially bad when revolting people revolt...
>>>>
>>>> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 11:01 PM Jason McKemie <
>>>> j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> People are revolting, but they will start to revolt...
>>>>>
>>>>> On Thursday, March 19, 2020, James Howard  wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> are you saying that you're not revolting now?   Makes me think of the
>>>>>> 3 Stooges line "I resemble that remark"..
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Oh wait.  Did you mean that people will start to revolt?  Hmmm  I
>>>>>> thought you meant people were going to be revolting and most people 
>>>>>> already
>>>>>> are.
>>>>>> --
>>>>>> *From:* AF  on behalf of Jason McKemie <
>>>>>> j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>
>>>>>> *Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:37:51 PM
>>>>>> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Gro

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[chuck]

Whelp my grandfather enforced quarantines in 1918.  Actually made some 
people move to “pest houses” and made sure they had food and never left the 
building.  
Nobody hijacked food deliveries back then either.  

From: Adam Moffett 
Sent: Friday, March 20, 2020 9:24 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

If people get hungry enough they might do anything.  It's not a matter of being 
inherently good or evil.  People will rationalize bad behavior to fulfill basic 
needs.  


Remember the warning label: Humans under stress may exhibit poor behavior
"I'm only hijacking this produce truck to feed my family.  I'm not really a bad 
guy." 

I would disagree with an "overnight" time scale.  If supply was disrupted for a 
few months then it might be different.



On 3/20/2020 11:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:

  All my life I have heard that if we have a nationwide or worldwide 
catastrophe that the supermarkets would be empty overnight and food trucks 
would be getting hijacked on the highways.  Didn’t happen.  Don’t think it is 
gonna happen.  People are inherently good.  It is an old debate.  David Hume vs 
Rousseau.  

  From: Steve Jones 
  Sent: Friday, March 20, 2020 8:36 AM
  To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
  Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

  Too many people talking about worst case like its expected. Anyone who does 
that is incompetent

  On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 1:14 AM Jason McKemie 
 wrote:

No, we have a media problem, views and clicks pay, and panic gets more of 
those than anything else. Not that there isn't an issue, but we're 
"capitalizing" on it the most efficiently.  

On Friday, March 20, 2020, Kurt Fankhauser  wrote:

  I'm on the county health board here, they are extremely worried about 
what is to come. They say the "peak" and "flattening" isn't expected till Mid 
May. They have not released that to the public yet because they don't want to 
create panic but sounds like this lockdown could be a new way of life for at 
least a few months. They are also talking about the possibility of refrigerated 
semi trailers for the dead bodies if they get that many. Our county population 
is over 40,000 and between the two hospitals here they have only 8 ventilators. 
If just one half of 1 percent of the population here needs critical care that 
is over 200 people. The two hospitals here are only setup for a couple dozen 
ICU beds each. Traditionally trauma patients that come in here are forwarded to 
one of the bigger cities which will not be an option due to overstretched 
resources in the bigger cities and them having even bigger problems than us. 
Consider that some of the data suggests 10-20% of the infected will need 
hospitalized you start to grasp the real threat to the healthcare system. Trump 
knows all this, he was probably briefed with the numbers over a month ago. He 
would not be tanking the economy right now if this wasn't a real threat of 
happening. If it wasn't for the travel ban we would probably be right there 
with Italy as we speak...

  On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 12:21 AM Mathew Howard  
wrote:

It's especially bad when revolting people revolt...

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 11:01 PM Jason McKemie 
 wrote:

  People are revolting, but they will start to revolt...

  On Thursday, March 19, 2020, James Howard  wrote:

are you saying that you're not revolting now?   Makes me think of 
the 3 Stooges line "I resemble that remark".. 

Oh wait.  Did you mean that people will start to revolt?  Hmmm  
I thought you meant people were going to be revolting and most people already 
are.



From: AF  on behalf of Jason McKemie 

Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:37:51 PM
    To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies 

Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then or you're going to 
have people revolting (myself included).

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince  
wrote:

  The isolation can not last more than a few weeks, or maybe a 
month - month and a half. At that point, we should have reduced the number of 
walking infections without symptoms, and maybe have the ability to actually 
test for it. After that, it's a crap shoot. 




bp


On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote:

With "flatten the curve" as your primary tool expected to take 
years and people only able to half pay attention for a few weeks, we'll have to 
find something else.




-
Mike Hammett
Intelligent Computing Solutions

Midwest Internet Exchange

The Brothers WISP






--

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[chuck]

Cows will keep growing, hay keeps growing, farmers will keep planting.  
One single farmer can create an enormous amount of wheat.  

From: Adam Moffett 
Sent: Friday, March 20, 2020 9:24 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

If people get hungry enough they might do anything.  It's not a matter of being 
inherently good or evil.  People will rationalize bad behavior to fulfill basic 
needs.  


Remember the warning label: Humans under stress may exhibit poor behavior
"I'm only hijacking this produce truck to feed my family.  I'm not really a bad 
guy." 

I would disagree with an "overnight" time scale.  If supply was disrupted for a 
few months then it might be different.



On 3/20/2020 11:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:

  All my life I have heard that if we have a nationwide or worldwide 
catastrophe that the supermarkets would be empty overnight and food trucks 
would be getting hijacked on the highways.  Didn’t happen.  Don’t think it is 
gonna happen.  People are inherently good.  It is an old debate.  David Hume vs 
Rousseau.  

  From: Steve Jones 
  Sent: Friday, March 20, 2020 8:36 AM
  To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
  Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

  Too many people talking about worst case like its expected. Anyone who does 
that is incompetent

  On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 1:14 AM Jason McKemie 
 wrote:

No, we have a media problem, views and clicks pay, and panic gets more of 
those than anything else. Not that there isn't an issue, but we're 
"capitalizing" on it the most efficiently.  

On Friday, March 20, 2020, Kurt Fankhauser  wrote:

  I'm on the county health board here, they are extremely worried about 
what is to come. They say the "peak" and "flattening" isn't expected till Mid 
May. They have not released that to the public yet because they don't want to 
create panic but sounds like this lockdown could be a new way of life for at 
least a few months. They are also talking about the possibility of refrigerated 
semi trailers for the dead bodies if they get that many. Our county population 
is over 40,000 and between the two hospitals here they have only 8 ventilators. 
If just one half of 1 percent of the population here needs critical care that 
is over 200 people. The two hospitals here are only setup for a couple dozen 
ICU beds each. Traditionally trauma patients that come in here are forwarded to 
one of the bigger cities which will not be an option due to overstretched 
resources in the bigger cities and them having even bigger problems than us. 
Consider that some of the data suggests 10-20% of the infected will need 
hospitalized you start to grasp the real threat to the healthcare system. Trump 
knows all this, he was probably briefed with the numbers over a month ago. He 
would not be tanking the economy right now if this wasn't a real threat of 
happening. If it wasn't for the travel ban we would probably be right there 
with Italy as we speak...

  On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 12:21 AM Mathew Howard  
wrote:

It's especially bad when revolting people revolt...

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 11:01 PM Jason McKemie 
 wrote:

  People are revolting, but they will start to revolt...

  On Thursday, March 19, 2020, James Howard  wrote:

are you saying that you're not revolting now?   Makes me think of 
the 3 Stooges line "I resemble that remark".. 

Oh wait.  Did you mean that people will start to revolt?  Hmmm  
I thought you meant people were going to be revolting and most people already 
are.



From: AF  on behalf of Jason McKemie 

Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:37:51 PM
    To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies 

Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then or you're going to 
have people revolting (myself included).

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince  
wrote:

  The isolation can not last more than a few weeks, or maybe a 
month - month and a half. At that point, we should have reduced the number of 
walking infections without symptoms, and maybe have the ability to actually 
test for it. After that, it's a crap shoot. 




bp


On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote:

With "flatten the curve" as your primary tool expected to take 
years and people only able to half pay attention for a few weeks, we'll have to 
find something else.




-
Mike Hammett
Intelligent Computing Solutions

Midwest Internet Exchange

The Brothers WISP








From: "Bill Prince" mailto:part15...@gmail.com
 

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Steve Jones]

They are been going to be hungry because they are stupid and assume there
is no food when there is.
People with imagined problems are the worst
We've seen it on display

On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 10:25 AM Adam Moffett  wrote:

> If people get hungry enough they might do anything.  It's not a matter of
> being inherently good or evil.  People will rationalize bad behavior to
> fulfill basic needs.
>
> Remember the warning label: *Humans under stress may exhibit poor
> behavior*
> *"I'm only hijacking this produce truck to feed my family.  I'm not really
> a bad guy." *
>
> I would disagree with an "overnight" time scale.  If supply was disrupted
> for a few months then it might be different.
>
>
> On 3/20/2020 11:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
>
> All my life I have heard that if we have a nationwide or worldwide
> catastrophe that the supermarkets would be empty overnight and food trucks
> would be getting hijacked on the highways.  Didn’t happen.  Don’t think it
> is gonna happen.  People are inherently good.  It is an old debate.  David
> Hume vs Rousseau.
>
> *From:* Steve Jones
> *Sent:* Friday, March 20, 2020 8:36 AM
> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>
> Too many people talking about worst case like its expected. Anyone who
> does that is incompetent
>
> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 1:14 AM Jason McKemie <
> j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com> wrote:
>
>> No, we have a media problem, views and clicks pay, and panic gets more of
>> those than anything else. Not that there isn't an issue, but we're
>> "capitalizing" on it the most efficiently.
>>
>> On Friday, March 20, 2020, Kurt Fankhauser 
>> wrote:
>>
>>> I'm on the county health board here, they are extremely worried about
>>> what is to come. They say the "peak" and "flattening" isn't expected till
>>> Mid May. They have not released that to the public yet because they don't
>>> want to create panic but sounds like this lockdown could be a new way of
>>> life for at least a few months. They are also talking about the possibility
>>> of refrigerated semi trailers for the dead bodies if they get that many.
>>> Our county population is over 40,000 and between the two hospitals here
>>> they have only 8 ventilators. If just one half of 1 percent of the
>>> population here needs critical care that is over 200 people. The two
>>> hospitals here are only setup for a couple dozen ICU beds each.
>>> Traditionally trauma patients that come in here are forwarded to one of the
>>> bigger cities which will not be an option due to overstretched resources in
>>> the bigger cities and them having even bigger problems than us. Consider
>>> that some of the data suggests 10-20% of the infected will need
>>> hospitalized you start to grasp the real threat to the healthcare system.
>>> Trump knows all this, he was probably briefed with the numbers over a month
>>> ago. He would not be tanking the economy right now if this wasn't a real
>>> threat of happening. If it wasn't for the travel ban we would probably be
>>> right there with Italy as we speak...
>>>
>>> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 12:21 AM Mathew Howard 
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> It's especially bad when revolting people revolt...
>>>>
>>>> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 11:01 PM Jason McKemie <
>>>> j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> People are revolting, but they will start to revolt...
>>>>>
>>>>> On Thursday, March 19, 2020, James Howard  wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> are you saying that you're not revolting now?   Makes me think of the
>>>>>> 3 Stooges line "I resemble that remark"..
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Oh wait.  Did you mean that people will start to revolt?  Hmmm  I
>>>>>> thought you meant people were going to be revolting and most people 
>>>>>> already
>>>>>> are.
>>>>>> --
>>>>>> *From:* AF  on behalf of Jason McKemie <
>>>>>> j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>
>>>>>> *Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:37:51 PM
>>>>>> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
>>>>>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then or you're going to
>>>>>> have people revolting (mys

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[chuck]

All my life I have heard that if we have a nationwide or worldwide catastrophe 
that the supermarkets would be empty overnight and food trucks would be getting 
hijacked on the highways.  Didn’t happen.  Don’t think it is gonna happen.  
People are inherently good.  It is an old debate.  David Hume vs Rousseau.  

From: Steve Jones 
Sent: Friday, March 20, 2020 8:36 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

Too many people talking about worst case like its expected. Anyone who does 
that is incompetent

On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 1:14 AM Jason McKemie  
wrote:

  No, we have a media problem, views and clicks pay, and panic gets more of 
those than anything else. Not that there isn't an issue, but we're 
"capitalizing" on it the most efficiently.  

  On Friday, March 20, 2020, Kurt Fankhauser  wrote:

I'm on the county health board here, they are extremely worried about what 
is to come. They say the "peak" and "flattening" isn't expected till Mid May. 
They have not released that to the public yet because they don't want to create 
panic but sounds like this lockdown could be a new way of life for at least a 
few months. They are also talking about the possibility of refrigerated semi 
trailers for the dead bodies if they get that many. Our county population is 
over 40,000 and between the two hospitals here they have only 8 ventilators. If 
just one half of 1 percent of the population here needs critical care that is 
over 200 people. The two hospitals here are only setup for a couple dozen ICU 
beds each. Traditionally trauma patients that come in here are forwarded to one 
of the bigger cities which will not be an option due to overstretched resources 
in the bigger cities and them having even bigger problems than us. Consider 
that some of the data suggests 10-20% of the infected will need hospitalized 
you start to grasp the real threat to the healthcare system. Trump knows all 
this, he was probably briefed with the numbers over a month ago. He would not 
be tanking the economy right now if this wasn't a real threat of happening. If 
it wasn't for the travel ban we would probably be right there with Italy as we 
speak...

On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 12:21 AM Mathew Howard  wrote:

  It's especially bad when revolting people revolt...

  On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 11:01 PM Jason McKemie 
 wrote:

People are revolting, but they will start to revolt...

On Thursday, March 19, 2020, James Howard  wrote:

  are you saying that you're not revolting now?   Makes me think of the 
3 Stooges line "I resemble that remark".. 

  Oh wait.  Did you mean that people will start to revolt?  Hmmm  I 
thought you meant people were going to be revolting and most people already 
are.

--

  From: AF  on behalf of Jason McKemie 

  Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:37:51 PM
  To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
  Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies 

  Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then or you're going to 
have people revolting (myself included).

  On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince  
wrote:

The isolation can not last more than a few weeks, or maybe a month 
- month and a half. At that point, we should have reduced the number of walking 
infections without symptoms, and maybe have the ability to actually test for 
it. After that, it's a crap shoot. 




bp


On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote:

  With "flatten the curve" as your primary tool expected to take 
years and people only able to half pay attention for a few weeks, we'll have to 
find something else.




  -
  Mike Hammett
  Intelligent Computing Solutions

  Midwest Internet Exchange

  The Brothers WISP






--

  From: "Bill Prince" mailto:part15...@gmail.com
  To: af@af.afmug.com
  Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:54:45 PM
  Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies


  The "plan" (no jokes please) seems to be short term isolation to 
try and flatten the curve. With that, all the infected people not having 
symptoms will become immune (to some extent) and no longer be contagious. I 
don't think we can keep people bottled up for more than a few weeks.



bp


On 3/19/2020 12:49 PM, Adam Moffett wrote:

Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is? 

We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all 
international trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run it's 
course, or so it seems to me.

I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't 
overwhelm the hospi

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[chuck]

Maybe I will just go get a prophylactic tracheostomy now before the rush 
starts.  

From: Jason McKemie 
Sent: Friday, March 20, 2020 12:14 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

No, we have a media problem, views and clicks pay, and panic gets more of those 
than anything else. Not that there isn't an issue, but we're "capitalizing" on 
it the most efficiently.  

On Friday, March 20, 2020, Kurt Fankhauser  wrote:

  I'm on the county health board here, they are extremely worried about what is 
to come. They say the "peak" and "flattening" isn't expected till Mid May. They 
have not released that to the public yet because they don't want to create 
panic but sounds like this lockdown could be a new way of life for at least a 
few months. They are also talking about the possibility of refrigerated semi 
trailers for the dead bodies if they get that many. Our county population is 
over 40,000 and between the two hospitals here they have only 8 ventilators. If 
just one half of 1 percent of the population here needs critical care that is 
over 200 people. The two hospitals here are only setup for a couple dozen ICU 
beds each. Traditionally trauma patients that come in here are forwarded to one 
of the bigger cities which will not be an option due to overstretched resources 
in the bigger cities and them having even bigger problems than us. Consider 
that some of the data suggests 10-20% of the infected will need hospitalized 
you start to grasp the real threat to the healthcare system. Trump knows all 
this, he was probably briefed with the numbers over a month ago. He would not 
be tanking the economy right now if this wasn't a real threat of happening. If 
it wasn't for the travel ban we would probably be right there with Italy as we 
speak...

  On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 12:21 AM Mathew Howard  wrote:

It's especially bad when revolting people revolt...

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 11:01 PM Jason McKemie 
 wrote:

  People are revolting, but they will start to revolt...

  On Thursday, March 19, 2020, James Howard  wrote:

are you saying that you're not revolting now?   Makes me think of the 3 
Stooges line "I resemble that remark".. 

Oh wait.  Did you mean that people will start to revolt?  Hmmm  I 
thought you meant people were going to be revolting and most people already 
are.



From: AF  on behalf of Jason McKemie 

Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:37:51 PM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies 

Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then or you're going to 
have people revolting (myself included).

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince  wrote:

  The isolation can not last more than a few weeks, or maybe a month - 
month and a half. At that point, we should have reduced the number of walking 
infections without symptoms, and maybe have the ability to actually test for 
it. After that, it's a crap shoot. 




bp


On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote:

With "flatten the curve" as your primary tool expected to take 
years and people only able to half pay attention for a few weeks, we'll have to 
find something else.




-
Mike Hammett
Intelligent Computing Solutions

Midwest Internet Exchange

The Brothers WISP








From: "Bill Prince" mailto:part15...@gmail.com
To: af@af.afmug.com
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:54:45 PM
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies


The "plan" (no jokes please) seems to be short term isolation to 
try and flatten the curve. With that, all the infected people not having 
symptoms will become immune (to some extent) and no longer be contagious. I 
don't think we can keep people bottled up for more than a few weeks.



bp


On 3/19/2020 12:49 PM, Adam Moffett wrote:

  Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is? 

  We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all 
international trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run it's 
course, or so it seems to me.

  I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't overwhelm 
the hospital capacity and that's great.  Are we going to somehow reduce social 
isolation over time in a controlled way, or will social isolation end 
organically as people get sick of staying home?




  On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:

I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic 

The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not 
equate hidden numbers of mag

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Steve Jones]

Too many people talking about worst case like its expected. Anyone who does
that is incompetent

On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 1:14 AM Jason McKemie <
j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com> wrote:

> No, we have a media problem, views and clicks pay, and panic gets more of
> those than anything else. Not that there isn't an issue, but we're
> "capitalizing" on it the most efficiently.
>
> On Friday, March 20, 2020, Kurt Fankhauser 
> wrote:
>
>> I'm on the county health board here, they are extremely worried about
>> what is to come. They say the "peak" and "flattening" isn't expected till
>> Mid May. They have not released that to the public yet because they don't
>> want to create panic but sounds like this lockdown could be a new way of
>> life for at least a few months. They are also talking about the possibility
>> of refrigerated semi trailers for the dead bodies if they get that many.
>> Our county population is over 40,000 and between the two hospitals here
>> they have only 8 ventilators. If just one half of 1 percent of the
>> population here needs critical care that is over 200 people. The two
>> hospitals here are only setup for a couple dozen ICU beds each.
>> Traditionally trauma patients that come in here are forwarded to one of the
>> bigger cities which will not be an option due to overstretched resources in
>> the bigger cities and them having even bigger problems than us. Consider
>> that some of the data suggests 10-20% of the infected will need
>> hospitalized you start to grasp the real threat to the healthcare system.
>> Trump knows all this, he was probably briefed with the numbers over a month
>> ago. He would not be tanking the economy right now if this wasn't a real
>> threat of happening. If it wasn't for the travel ban we would probably be
>> right there with Italy as we speak...
>>
>> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 12:21 AM Mathew Howard 
>> wrote:
>>
>>> It's especially bad when revolting people revolt...
>>>
>>> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 11:01 PM Jason McKemie <
>>> j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> People are revolting, but they will start to revolt...
>>>>
>>>> On Thursday, March 19, 2020, James Howard  wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> are you saying that you're not revolting now?   Makes me think of the
>>>>> 3 Stooges line "I resemble that remark"..
>>>>>
>>>>> Oh wait.  Did you mean that people will start to revolt?  Hmmm  I
>>>>> thought you meant people were going to be revolting and most people 
>>>>> already
>>>>> are.
>>>>> --
>>>>> *From:* AF  on behalf of Jason McKemie <
>>>>> j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>
>>>>> *Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:37:51 PM
>>>>> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
>>>>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>>>>>
>>>>> Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then or you're going to
>>>>> have people revolting (myself included).
>>>>>
>>>>> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince 
>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> The isolation can not last more than a few weeks, or maybe a month -
>>>>>> month and a half. At that point, we should have reduced the number of
>>>>>> walking infections without symptoms, and maybe have the ability to 
>>>>>> actually
>>>>>> test for it. After that, it's a crap shoot.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> bp
>>>>>> 
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> With "flatten the curve" as your primary tool expected to take years
>>>>>> and people only able to half pay attention for a few weeks, we'll have to
>>>>>> find something else.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> -
>>>>>> Mike Hammett
>>>>>> Intelligent Computing Solutions <http://www.ics-il.com/>
>>>>>> <https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL>
>>>>>> <https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb>
>>>>>> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions>
>>>>>> <https://twitter.com/ICS

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Steve Jones]

So far population infection rates haven't hit more than 1 percent anywhere
have they

On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:07 AM Kurt Fankhauser 
wrote:

> I'm on the county health board here, they are extremely worried about what
> is to come. They say the "peak" and "flattening" isn't expected till Mid
> May. They have not released that to the public yet because they don't want
> to create panic but sounds like this lockdown could be a new way of life
> for at least a few months. They are also talking about the possibility of
> refrigerated semi trailers for the dead bodies if they get that many. Our
> county population is over 40,000 and between the two hospitals here they
> have only 8 ventilators. If just one half of 1 percent of the population
> here needs critical care that is over 200 people. The two hospitals here
> are only setup for a couple dozen ICU beds each. Traditionally trauma
> patients that come in here are forwarded to one of the bigger cities which
> will not be an option due to overstretched resources in the bigger cities
> and them having even bigger problems than us. Consider that some of the
> data suggests 10-20% of the infected will need hospitalized you start to
> grasp the real threat to the healthcare system. Trump knows all this, he
> was probably briefed with the numbers over a month ago. He would not be
> tanking the economy right now if this wasn't a real threat of happening. If
> it wasn't for the travel ban we would probably be right there with Italy as
> we speak...
>
> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 12:21 AM Mathew Howard 
> wrote:
>
>> It's especially bad when revolting people revolt...
>>
>> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 11:01 PM Jason McKemie <
>> j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com> wrote:
>>
>>> People are revolting, but they will start to revolt...
>>>
>>> On Thursday, March 19, 2020, James Howard  wrote:
>>>
>>>> are you saying that you're not revolting now?   Makes me think of the 3
>>>> Stooges line "I resemble that remark"..
>>>>
>>>> Oh wait.  Did you mean that people will start to revolt?  Hmmm  I
>>>> thought you meant people were going to be revolting and most people already
>>>> are.....
>>>> --
>>>> *From:* AF  on behalf of Jason McKemie <
>>>> j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>
>>>> *Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:37:51 PM
>>>> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
>>>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>>>>
>>>> Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then or you're going to
>>>> have people revolting (myself included).
>>>>
>>>> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince 
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> The isolation can not last more than a few weeks, or maybe a month -
>>>>> month and a half. At that point, we should have reduced the number of
>>>>> walking infections without symptoms, and maybe have the ability to 
>>>>> actually
>>>>> test for it. After that, it's a crap shoot.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> bp
>>>>> 
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> With "flatten the curve" as your primary tool expected to take years
>>>>> and people only able to half pay attention for a few weeks, we'll have to
>>>>> find something else.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> -
>>>>> Mike Hammett
>>>>> Intelligent Computing Solutions <http://www.ics-il.com/>
>>>>> <https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL>
>>>>> <https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb>
>>>>> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions>
>>>>> <https://twitter.com/ICSIL>
>>>>> Midwest Internet Exchange <http://www.midwest-ix.com/>
>>>>> <https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix>
>>>>> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange>
>>>>> <https://twitter.com/mdwestix>
>>>>> The Brothers WISP <http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/>
>>>>> <https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> <https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg>
>>>>> --
>>>>> *From: *&quo

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Mike Hammett]

The problem with "shelter in place" is that s many exemptions, does it 
really help any? 


What percentage of the population has legitimate reasons to bypass it? Farmers, 
anyone in food, medical supplies, or healthcare, anyone in logistics, anyone in 
retail that supplies the former. What have you really gained... other than fear 
and power flexing? 




- 
Mike Hammett 
Intelligent Computing Solutions 

Midwest Internet Exchange 

The Brothers WISP 




- Original Message -

From: "Bill Prince"  
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 9:50:47 PM 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies 


Entire state of California is now "shelter in place". Guvna says it is a moment 
in time, and an effort to flatten the curve. 
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/california-governor-issues-statewide-order-to-stay-at-home-effective-thursday-evening.html
 bp
 
On 3/19/2020 7:02 PM, Ken Hohhof wrote: 




Study in Iceland (which is testing a ton more people than we are) finds about 
half of those who test positive were asymptomatic. 
https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/coronavirus-testing-iceland 

A small town in Italy tested everyone and found the same thing. And when they 
isolated the asymptomatic people, the new cases went to zero. 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/scientists-say-mass-tests-in-italian-town-have-halted-covid-19
 

“We were able to contain the outbreak here, because we identified and 
eliminated the ‘submerged’ infections and isolated them,” Andrea Crisanti, an 
infections expert at Imperial College London, who took part in the Vò project, 
told the Financial Times. “That is what makes the difference.” 
The research allowed for the identification of at least six asymptomatic people 
who tested positive for Covid-19. ‘‘If these people had not been discovered,” 
said the researchers, they would probably have unknowingly infected other 
inhabitants. 
“The percentage of infected people, even if asymptomatic, in the population is 
very high,” wrote Sergio Romagnani, professor of clinical immunology at the 
University of Florence, in a letter to the authorities. “The isolation of 
asymptomatics is essential to be able to control the spread of the virus and 
the severity of the disease.” 


From: AF  On Behalf Of Jason McKemie 
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:38 PM 
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group  
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies 


Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then or you're going to have people 
revolting (myself included). 



On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince < part15...@gmail.com > wrote: 



The isolation can not last more than a few weeks, or maybe a month - month and 
a half. At that point, we should have reduced the number of walking infections 
without symptoms, and maybe have the ability to actually test for it. After 
that, it's a crap shoot. 
bp  

On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote: 



With "flatten the curve" as your primary tool expected to take years and people 
only able to half pay attention for a few weeks, we'll have to find something 
else. 



- 
Mike Hammett 
Intelligent Computing Solutions 

Midwest Internet Exchange 

The Brothers WISP 







From: "Bill Prince"  
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:54:45 PM 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies 
The "plan" (no jokes please) seems to be short term isolation to try and 
flatten the curve. With that, all the infected people not having symptoms will 
become immune (to some extent) and no longer be contagious. I don't think we 
can keep people bottled up for more than a few weeks. 
bp  

On 3/19/2020 12:49 PM, Adam Moffett wrote: 


Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is? 
We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all international 
trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run it's course, or so it 
seems to me. 
I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't overwhelm the hospital 
capacity and that's great. Are we going to somehow reduce social isolation over 
time in a controlled way, or will social isolation end organically as people 
get sick of staying home? 


On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote: 



I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic 



The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not equate hidden 
numbers of magnitude 



Heres the logic thats completely being ignored 



The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent tested would have been 
attributed to flu 

There has been no reported increase in flu deaths per the anticipated rates 
this year 



The testing that has been done is very promising. Yesterdays counts of those 
tested were running around 8 percent positive. This does NOT equate to 8 
percent of the population. The "administration bad, nobody can just go get a 
test for curiousity" argument further strengthens this as a promising nu

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Jason McKemie]

No, we have a media problem, views and clicks pay, and panic gets more of
those than anything else. Not that there isn't an issue, but we're
"capitalizing" on it the most efficiently.

On Friday, March 20, 2020, Kurt Fankhauser  wrote:

> I'm on the county health board here, they are extremely worried about what
> is to come. They say the "peak" and "flattening" isn't expected till Mid
> May. They have not released that to the public yet because they don't want
> to create panic but sounds like this lockdown could be a new way of life
> for at least a few months. They are also talking about the possibility of
> refrigerated semi trailers for the dead bodies if they get that many. Our
> county population is over 40,000 and between the two hospitals here they
> have only 8 ventilators. If just one half of 1 percent of the population
> here needs critical care that is over 200 people. The two hospitals here
> are only setup for a couple dozen ICU beds each. Traditionally trauma
> patients that come in here are forwarded to one of the bigger cities which
> will not be an option due to overstretched resources in the bigger cities
> and them having even bigger problems than us. Consider that some of the
> data suggests 10-20% of the infected will need hospitalized you start to
> grasp the real threat to the healthcare system. Trump knows all this, he
> was probably briefed with the numbers over a month ago. He would not be
> tanking the economy right now if this wasn't a real threat of happening. If
> it wasn't for the travel ban we would probably be right there with Italy as
> we speak...
>
> On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 12:21 AM Mathew Howard 
> wrote:
>
>> It's especially bad when revolting people revolt...
>>
>> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 11:01 PM Jason McKemie <
>> j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com> wrote:
>>
>>> People are revolting, but they will start to revolt...
>>>
>>> On Thursday, March 19, 2020, James Howard  wrote:
>>>
>>>> are you saying that you're not revolting now?   Makes me think of the 3
>>>> Stooges line "I resemble that remark"..
>>>>
>>>> Oh wait.  Did you mean that people will start to revolt?  Hmmm  I
>>>> thought you meant people were going to be revolting and most people already
>>>> are.
>>>> --
>>>> *From:* AF  on behalf of Jason McKemie <
>>>> j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>
>>>> *Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:37:51 PM
>>>> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
>>>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>>>>
>>>> Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then or you're going to
>>>> have people revolting (myself included).
>>>>
>>>> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince 
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> The isolation can not last more than a few weeks, or maybe a month -
>>>>> month and a half. At that point, we should have reduced the number of
>>>>> walking infections without symptoms, and maybe have the ability to 
>>>>> actually
>>>>> test for it. After that, it's a crap shoot.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> bp
>>>>> 
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> With "flatten the curve" as your primary tool expected to take years
>>>>> and people only able to half pay attention for a few weeks, we'll have to
>>>>> find something else.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> -
>>>>> Mike Hammett
>>>>> Intelligent Computing Solutions <http://www.ics-il.com/>
>>>>> <https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL>
>>>>> <https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb>
>>>>> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions>
>>>>> <https://twitter.com/ICSIL>
>>>>> Midwest Internet Exchange <http://www.midwest-ix.com/>
>>>>> <https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix>
>>>>> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange>
>>>>> <https://twitter.com/mdwestix>
>>>>> The Brothers WISP <http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/>
>>>>> <https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> <https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfx

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Kurt Fankhauser]

I'm on the county health board here, they are extremely worried about what
is to come. They say the "peak" and "flattening" isn't expected till Mid
May. They have not released that to the public yet because they don't want
to create panic but sounds like this lockdown could be a new way of life
for at least a few months. They are also talking about the possibility of
refrigerated semi trailers for the dead bodies if they get that many. Our
county population is over 40,000 and between the two hospitals here they
have only 8 ventilators. If just one half of 1 percent of the population
here needs critical care that is over 200 people. The two hospitals here
are only setup for a couple dozen ICU beds each. Traditionally trauma
patients that come in here are forwarded to one of the bigger cities which
will not be an option due to overstretched resources in the bigger cities
and them having even bigger problems than us. Consider that some of the
data suggests 10-20% of the infected will need hospitalized you start to
grasp the real threat to the healthcare system. Trump knows all this, he
was probably briefed with the numbers over a month ago. He would not be
tanking the economy right now if this wasn't a real threat of happening. If
it wasn't for the travel ban we would probably be right there with Italy as
we speak...

On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 12:21 AM Mathew Howard  wrote:

> It's especially bad when revolting people revolt...
>
> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 11:01 PM Jason McKemie <
> j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com> wrote:
>
>> People are revolting, but they will start to revolt...
>>
>> On Thursday, March 19, 2020, James Howard  wrote:
>>
>>> are you saying that you're not revolting now?   Makes me think of the 3
>>> Stooges line "I resemble that remark"..
>>>
>>> Oh wait.  Did you mean that people will start to revolt?  Hmmm  I
>>> thought you meant people were going to be revolting and most people already
>>> are.
>>> --
>>> *From:* AF  on behalf of Jason McKemie <
>>> j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>
>>> *Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:37:51 PM
>>> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
>>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>>>
>>> Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then or you're going to have
>>> people revolting (myself included).
>>>
>>> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince  wrote:
>>>
>>>> The isolation can not last more than a few weeks, or maybe a month -
>>>> month and a half. At that point, we should have reduced the number of
>>>> walking infections without symptoms, and maybe have the ability to actually
>>>> test for it. After that, it's a crap shoot.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> bp
>>>> 
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote:
>>>>
>>>> With "flatten the curve" as your primary tool expected to take years
>>>> and people only able to half pay attention for a few weeks, we'll have to
>>>> find something else.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> -
>>>> Mike Hammett
>>>> Intelligent Computing Solutions <http://www.ics-il.com/>
>>>> <https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL>
>>>> <https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb>
>>>> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions>
>>>> <https://twitter.com/ICSIL>
>>>> Midwest Internet Exchange <http://www.midwest-ix.com/>
>>>> <https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix>
>>>> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange>
>>>> <https://twitter.com/mdwestix>
>>>> The Brothers WISP <http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/>
>>>> <https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> <https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg>
>>>> --
>>>> *From: *"Bill Prince"  
>>>> *To: *af@af.afmug.com
>>>> *Sent: *Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:54:45 PM
>>>> *Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>>>>
>>>> The "plan" (no jokes please) seems to be short term isolation to try
>>>> and flatten the curve. With that, all the infected people not having
>>>> symptoms will become immune (to some extent) and no longer be contagious. I
>>>> don't think we can keep people bottled up for mo

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Mathew Howard]

It's especially bad when revolting people revolt...

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 11:01 PM Jason McKemie <
j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com> wrote:

> People are revolting, but they will start to revolt...
>
> On Thursday, March 19, 2020, James Howard  wrote:
>
>> are you saying that you're not revolting now?   Makes me think of the 3
>> Stooges line "I resemble that remark"..
>>
>> Oh wait.  Did you mean that people will start to revolt?  Hmmm  I
>> thought you meant people were going to be revolting and most people already
>> are.
>> --
>> *From:* AF  on behalf of Jason McKemie <
>> j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>
>> *Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:37:51 PM
>> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>>
>> Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then or you're going to have
>> people revolting (myself included).
>>
>> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince  wrote:
>>
>>> The isolation can not last more than a few weeks, or maybe a month -
>>> month and a half. At that point, we should have reduced the number of
>>> walking infections without symptoms, and maybe have the ability to actually
>>> test for it. After that, it's a crap shoot.
>>>
>>>
>>> bp
>>> 
>>>
>>>
>>> On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote:
>>>
>>> With "flatten the curve" as your primary tool expected to take years and
>>> people only able to half pay attention for a few weeks, we'll have to find
>>> something else.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> -
>>> Mike Hammett
>>> Intelligent Computing Solutions <http://www.ics-il.com/>
>>> <https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL>
>>> <https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb>
>>> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions>
>>> <https://twitter.com/ICSIL>
>>> Midwest Internet Exchange <http://www.midwest-ix.com/>
>>> <https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix>
>>> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange>
>>> <https://twitter.com/mdwestix>
>>> The Brothers WISP <http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/>
>>> <https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp>
>>>
>>>
>>> <https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg>
>>> --
>>> *From: *"Bill Prince"  
>>> *To: *af@af.afmug.com
>>> *Sent: *Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:54:45 PM
>>> *Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>>>
>>> The "plan" (no jokes please) seems to be short term isolation to try and
>>> flatten the curve. With that, all the infected people not having symptoms
>>> will become immune (to some extent) and no longer be contagious. I don't
>>> think we can keep people bottled up for more than a few weeks.
>>>
>>>
>>> bp
>>> 
>>>
>>>
>>> On 3/19/2020 12:49 PM, Adam Moffett wrote:
>>>
>>> Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is?
>>>
>>> We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all
>>> international trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run it's
>>> course, or so it seems to me.
>>>
>>> I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't overwhelm the
>>> hospital capacity and that's great.  Are we going to somehow reduce social
>>> isolation over time in a controlled way, or will social isolation end
>>> organically as people get sick of staying home?
>>>
>>>
>>> On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:
>>>
>>> I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic
>>>
>>> The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not equate
>>> hidden numbers of magnitude
>>>
>>> Heres the logic thats completely being ignored
>>>
>>> The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent tested would have been
>>> attributed to flu
>>> There has been no reported increase in flu deaths per the anticipated
>>> rates this year
>>>
>>> The testing that has been done is very promising. Yesterdays counts of
>>> those tested were running around 8 percent positive. This does NOT equate
>>> to 8 percent of the population. The "administration bad, nobody can just go
>>> get a test for curio

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Jason McKemie]

People are revolting, but they will start to revolt...

On Thursday, March 19, 2020, James Howard  wrote:

> are you saying that you're not revolting now?   Makes me think of the 3
> Stooges line "I resemble that remark"..
>
> Oh wait.  Did you mean that people will start to revolt?  Hmmm  I
> thought you meant people were going to be revolting and most people already
> are.
> --
> *From:* AF  on behalf of Jason McKemie <
> j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>
> *Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:37:51 PM
> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>
> Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then or you're going to have
> people revolting (myself included).
>
> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince  wrote:
>
>> The isolation can not last more than a few weeks, or maybe a month -
>> month and a half. At that point, we should have reduced the number of
>> walking infections without symptoms, and maybe have the ability to actually
>> test for it. After that, it's a crap shoot.
>>
>>
>> bp
>> 
>>
>>
>> On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote:
>>
>> With "flatten the curve" as your primary tool expected to take years and
>> people only able to half pay attention for a few weeks, we'll have to find
>> something else.
>>
>>
>>
>> -
>> Mike Hammett
>> Intelligent Computing Solutions <http://www.ics-il.com/>
>> <https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL>
>> <https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb>
>> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions>
>> <https://twitter.com/ICSIL>
>> Midwest Internet Exchange <http://www.midwest-ix.com/>
>> <https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix>
>> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange>
>> <https://twitter.com/mdwestix>
>> The Brothers WISP <http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/>
>> <https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp>
>>
>>
>> <https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg>
>> --
>> *From: *"Bill Prince"  
>> *To: *af@af.afmug.com
>> *Sent: *Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:54:45 PM
>> *Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>>
>> The "plan" (no jokes please) seems to be short term isolation to try and
>> flatten the curve. With that, all the infected people not having symptoms
>> will become immune (to some extent) and no longer be contagious. I don't
>> think we can keep people bottled up for more than a few weeks.
>>
>>
>> bp
>> 
>>
>>
>> On 3/19/2020 12:49 PM, Adam Moffett wrote:
>>
>> Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is?
>>
>> We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all
>> international trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run it's
>> course, or so it seems to me.
>>
>> I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't overwhelm the
>> hospital capacity and that's great.  Are we going to somehow reduce social
>> isolation over time in a controlled way, or will social isolation end
>> organically as people get sick of staying home?
>>
>>
>> On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:
>>
>> I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic
>>
>> The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not equate
>> hidden numbers of magnitude
>>
>> Heres the logic thats completely being ignored
>>
>> The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent tested would have been
>> attributed to flu
>> There has been no reported increase in flu deaths per the anticipated
>> rates this year
>>
>> The testing that has been done is very promising. Yesterdays counts of
>> those tested were running around 8 percent positive. This does NOT equate
>> to 8 percent of the population. The "administration bad, nobody can just go
>> get a test for curiousity" argument further strengthens this as a promising
>> number. The ONLY people being tested for the most part, are those in the
>> very high probability category. So of those assumed to be infected, only 8
>> percent of them actually are.
>>
>> We still havent hit globally the number of infections and deaths from the
>> swine flu in the US alone. let me reiterate this GLOBALLY TODAY, there are
>> less sick and dead, than from swine flu in the US ALONE. The current
>> response is such that has never been see

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Jason McKemie]

So let's test everyone and move on with business.

On Thursday, March 19, 2020, Ken Hohhof  wrote:

> Study in Iceland (which is testing a ton more people than we are) finds
> about half of those who test positive were asymptomatic.
>
> https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/coronavirus-testing-iceland
>
>
>
> A small town in Italy tested everyone and found the same thing.  And when
> they isolated the asymptomatic people, the new cases went to zero.
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/scientists-
> say-mass-tests-in-italian-town-have-halted-covid-19
>
>
>
> “We were able to contain the outbreak here, because we identified and
> eliminated the ‘submerged’ infections and isolated them,” Andrea Crisanti,
> an infections expert at Imperial College London, who took part in the Vò
> project, told the Financial Times. “That is what makes the difference.”
>
> The research allowed for the identification of at least six asymptomatic
> people who tested positive for Covid-19. ‘‘If these people had not been
> discovered,” said the researchers, they would probably have unknowingly
> infected other inhabitants.
>
> “The percentage of infected people, even if asymptomatic, in the
> population is very high,” wrote Sergio Romagnani, professor of clinical
> immunology at the University of Florence, in a letter to the authorities.
> “The isolation of asymptomatics is essential to be able to control the
> spread of the virus and the severity of the disease.”
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* AF  *On Behalf Of *Jason McKemie
> *Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:38 PM
> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>
>
>
> Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then or you're going to have
> people revolting (myself included).
>
>
>
> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince  wrote:
>
> The isolation can not last more than a few weeks, or maybe a month - month
> and a half. At that point, we should have reduced the number of walking
> infections without symptoms, and maybe have the ability to actually test
> for it. After that, it's a crap shoot.
>
>
>
> bp
>
> 
>
>
>
> On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote:
>
> With "flatten the curve" as your primary tool expected to take years and
> people only able to half pay attention for a few weeks, we'll have to find
> something else.
>
>
>
> -
> Mike Hammett
> Intelligent Computing Solutions <http://www.ics-il.com/>
> <https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL>
> <https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb>
> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions>
> <https://twitter.com/ICSIL>
> Midwest Internet Exchange <http://www.midwest-ix.com/>
> <https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix>
> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange>
> <https://twitter.com/mdwestix>
> The Brothers WISP <http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/>
> <https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp>
>
>
> <https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg>
> --
>
> *From: *"Bill Prince"  
> *To: *af@af.afmug.com
> *Sent: *Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:54:45 PM
> *Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>
> The "plan" (no jokes please) seems to be short term isolation to try and
> flatten the curve. With that, all the infected people not having symptoms
> will become immune (to some extent) and no longer be contagious. I don't
> think we can keep people bottled up for more than a few weeks.
>
>
>
> bp
>
> 
>
>
>
> On 3/19/2020 12:49 PM, Adam Moffett wrote:
>
> Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is?
>
> We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all
> international trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run it's
> course, or so it seems to me.
>
> I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't overwhelm the
> hospital capacity and that's great.  Are we going to somehow reduce social
> isolation over time in a controlled way, or will social isolation end
> organically as people get sick of staying home?
>
>
>
> On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:
>
> I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic
>
>
>
> The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not equate
> hidden numbers of magnitude
>
>
>
> Heres the logic thats completely being ignored
>
>
>
> The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent tested would have been
> attributed to flu
>
> There has been no reported increase in flu deaths per the anticipated
&

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[James Howard]

are you saying that you're not revolting now?   Makes me think of the 3 Stooges 
line "I resemble that remark"..

Oh wait.  Did you mean that people will start to revolt?  Hmmm  I thought 
you meant people were going to be revolting and most people already are.

From: AF  on behalf of Jason McKemie 

Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:37:51 PM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then or you're going to have people 
revolting (myself included).

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince 
mailto:part15...@gmail.com>> wrote:

The isolation can not last more than a few weeks, or maybe a month - month and 
a half. At that point, we should have reduced the number of walking infections 
without symptoms, and maybe have the ability to actually test for it. After 
that, it's a crap shoot.


bp




On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote:
With "flatten the curve" as your primary tool expected to take years and people 
only able to half pay attention for a few weeks, we'll have to find something 
else.



-
Mike Hammett
Intelligent Computing Solutions<http://www.ics-il.com/>
[http://www.ics-il.com/images/fbicon.png]<https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL>[http://www.ics-il.com/images/googleicon.png]<https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb>[http://www.ics-il.com/images/linkedinicon.png]<https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions>[http://www.ics-il.com/images/twittericon.png]<https://twitter.com/ICSIL>
Midwest Internet Exchange<http://www.midwest-ix.com/>
[http://www.ics-il.com/images/fbicon.png]<https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix>[http://www.ics-il.com/images/linkedinicon.png]<https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange>[http://www.ics-il.com/images/twittericon.png]<https://twitter.com/mdwestix>
The Brothers WISP<http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/>
[http://www.ics-il.com/images/fbicon.png]<https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp>[http://www.ics-il.com/images/youtubeicon.png]


<https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg>

From: "Bill Prince" <mailto:part15...@gmail.com>
To: af@af.afmug.com<mailto:af@af.afmug.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:54:45 PM
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies


The "plan" (no jokes please) seems to be short term isolation to try and 
flatten the curve. With that, all the infected people not having symptoms will 
become immune (to some extent) and no longer be contagious. I don't think we 
can keep people bottled up for more than a few weeks.


bp




On 3/19/2020 12:49 PM, Adam Moffett wrote:

Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is?

We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all international 
trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run it's course, or so it 
seems to me.

I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't overwhelm the hospital 
capacity and that's great.  Are we going to somehow reduce social isolation 
over time in a controlled way, or will social isolation end organically as 
people get sick of staying home?


On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:
I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic

The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not equate hidden 
numbers of magnitude

Heres the logic thats completely being ignored

The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent tested would have been 
attributed to flu
There has been no reported increase in flu deaths per the anticipated rates 
this year

The testing that has been done is very promising. Yesterdays counts of those 
tested were running around 8 percent positive. This does NOT equate to 8 
percent of the population. The "administration bad, nobody can just go get a 
test for curiousity" argument further strengthens this as a promising number. 
The ONLY people being tested for the most part, are those in the very high 
probability category. So of those assumed to be infected, only 8 percent of 
them actually are.

We still havent hit globally the number of infections and deaths from the swine 
flu in the US alone. let me reiterate this GLOBALLY TODAY, there are less sick 
and dead, than from swine flu in the US ALONE. The current response is such 
that has never been seen in the history of the planet.

Inmates are an issue, with a guard and an inmate at rikers island infected now, 
we have a national issue. if we dump the prisons, not only do we have a ton of 
criminals on the street, we have hundreds of thousands of indigent on the 
streets in the middle of a pandemic. (maybe not having locked up such a 
percentage of the population in the first place is a whole other OT rant). Iran 
dumped 70k inmates on the streets, i cant imagine that having helped their 
situatio

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Steve Jones]

I hope people take it seriously. Not from the viral threat, but because of
what happens if they dont. The next phase of parenting is the belt.

This has to be the greatest global experiment that Ill ever see in my
lifetime. Once its over and the politics have stopped, the nerds will start
nerding with the data collected on all the control groups and all the test
groups. I think about every approach to pandemic has been put in play in
all the areas globally. They will learn so much about how a pandemic
spreads, how fear spreads a pandemic, how the media can sow fear to spread
a pandemic, how the governments can ebb and flow a pandemic one press
conference at a time, or lack there of. Financial nerds will be studying
the stock market for years to come. Money guys will become trillionaires,
When its all said and done the nerds will have the answers on the best ways
to respond to issues of global scale and get them under control
efficiently. ... nobody will listen, they never listen to the nerds, theres
no money or political gain in it


On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 9:51 PM Bill Prince  wrote:

> Entire state of California is now "shelter in place". Guvna says it is a
> moment in time, and an effort to flatten the curve.
>
>
> https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/california-governor-issues-statewide-order-to-stay-at-home-effective-thursday-evening.html
>
> bp
> 
>
>
> On 3/19/2020 7:02 PM, Ken Hohhof wrote:
>
> Study in Iceland (which is testing a ton more people than we are) finds
> about half of those who test positive were asymptomatic.
>
> https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/coronavirus-testing-iceland
>
>
>
> A small town in Italy tested everyone and found the same thing.  And when
> they isolated the asymptomatic people, the new cases went to zero.
>
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/scientists-say-mass-tests-in-italian-town-have-halted-covid-19
>
>
>
> “We were able to contain the outbreak here, because we identified and
> eliminated the ‘submerged’ infections and isolated them,” Andrea Crisanti,
> an infections expert at Imperial College London, who took part in the Vò
> project, told the Financial Times. “That is what makes the difference.”
>
> The research allowed for the identification of at least six asymptomatic
> people who tested positive for Covid-19. ‘‘If these people had not been
> discovered,” said the researchers, they would probably have unknowingly
> infected other inhabitants.
>
> “The percentage of infected people, even if asymptomatic, in the
> population is very high,” wrote Sergio Romagnani, professor of clinical
> immunology at the University of Florence, in a letter to the authorities.
> “The isolation of asymptomatics is essential to be able to control the
> spread of the virus and the severity of the disease.”
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* AF   *On Behalf
> Of *Jason McKemie
> *Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:38 PM
> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group  
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>
>
>
> Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then or you're going to have
> people revolting (myself included).
>
>
>
> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince  wrote:
>
> The isolation can not last more than a few weeks, or maybe a month - month
> and a half. At that point, we should have reduced the number of walking
> infections without symptoms, and maybe have the ability to actually test
> for it. After that, it's a crap shoot.
>
>
>
> bp
>
> 
>
>
>
> On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote:
>
> With "flatten the curve" as your primary tool expected to take years and
> people only able to half pay attention for a few weeks, we'll have to find
> something else.
>
>
>
> -
> Mike Hammett
> Intelligent Computing Solutions <http://www.ics-il.com/>
> <https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL>
> <https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb>
> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions>
> <https://twitter.com/ICSIL>
> Midwest Internet Exchange <http://www.midwest-ix.com/>
> <https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix>
> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange>
> <https://twitter.com/mdwestix>
> The Brothers WISP <http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/>
> <https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp>
>
>
> <https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg>
> --
>
> *From: *"Bill Prince"  
> *To: *af@af.afmug.com
> *Sent: *Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:54:45 PM
> *Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>
> The "plan" (no jokes please) seems to be short term isolation t

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Bill Prince]

  
  
Entire state of California is now "shelter in place". Guvna says
  it is a moment in time, and an effort to flatten the curve.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/california-governor-issues-statewide-order-to-stay-at-home-effective-thursday-evening.html
bp



On 3/19/2020 7:02 PM, Ken Hohhof wrote:


  
  
  
  
  
Study in Iceland (which is testing a ton
  more people than we are) finds about half of those who test
  positive were asymptomatic.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/coronavirus-testing-iceland
 
A small town in Italy tested everyone and
  found the same thing.  And when they isolated the asymptomatic
  people, the new cases went to zero.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/scientists-say-mass-tests-in-italian-town-have-halted-covid-19
 
“We
were able to contain the outbreak here, because we
identified and eliminated the ‘submerged’ infections and
isolated them,” Andrea Crisanti, an infections expert at
Imperial College London, who took part in the Vò project,
told the Financial Times. “That is what makes the
difference.”
The
research allowed for the identification of at least six
asymptomatic people who tested positive for Covid-19. ‘‘If
these people had not been discovered,” said the researchers,
they would probably have unknowingly infected other
inhabitants.
“The
percentage of infected people, even if asymptomatic, in the
population is very high,” wrote Sergio Romagnani, professor
of clinical immunology at the University of Florence, in a
letter to the authorities. “The isolation of asymptomatics
is essential to be able to control the spread of the virus
and the severity of the disease.”
 
 
From: AF
   On Behalf Of Jason
  McKemie
  Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:38 PM
  To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
  
  Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
 

  Yeah, you can't have businesses closed
past then or you're going to have people revolting (myself
included).

 

  
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill
  Prince <part15...@gmail.com>
  wrote:
  
  

  The isolation can not last more than a few weeks, or
maybe a month - month and a half. At that point, we
should have reduced the number of walking infections
without symptoms, and maybe have the ability to actually
test for it. After that, it's a crap shoot. 
   
  bp
  
   
  
On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett
  wrote:
  
  

  With
  "flatten the curve" as your primary tool expected
  to take years and people only able to half pay
  attention for a few weeks, we'll have to find
  something else.
  


-
Mike Hammett
Intelligent Computing
  Solutions

Midwest
  Internet Exchange

The
  Brothers WISP

  
  

  
  
  
  
From:
"Bill
Prince" 
To: af@af.afmug.com
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:54:45
PM
            Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
The
"plan" (no jokes please) seems to be short term
isolation to try and flatten the curve. With
that, all the infected people not having
symptoms will become immune (to some extent) and
no longer be contagious. I don't think we can
keep people bottled up for more than a few
weeks.
 
bp

 

  On
  

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Ken Hohhof]

Study in Iceland (which is testing a ton more people than we are) finds about 
half of those who test positive were asymptomatic.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/coronavirus-testing-iceland

 

A small town in Italy tested everyone and found the same thing.  And when they 
isolated the asymptomatic people, the new cases went to zero.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/scientists-say-mass-tests-in-italian-town-have-halted-covid-19

 

“We were able to contain the outbreak here, because we identified and 
eliminated the ‘submerged’ infections and isolated them,” Andrea Crisanti, an 
infections expert at Imperial College London, who took part in the Vò project, 
told the Financial Times. “That is what makes the difference.”

The research allowed for the identification of at least six asymptomatic people 
who tested positive for Covid-19. ‘‘If these people had not been discovered,” 
said the researchers, they would probably have unknowingly infected other 
inhabitants.

“The percentage of infected people, even if asymptomatic, in the population is 
very high,” wrote Sergio Romagnani, professor of clinical immunology at the 
University of Florence, in a letter to the authorities. “The isolation of 
asymptomatics is essential to be able to control the spread of the virus and 
the severity of the disease.”

 

 

From: AF  On Behalf Of Jason McKemie
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:38 PM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

 

Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then or you're going to have people 
revolting (myself included).

 

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince mailto:part15...@gmail.com> > wrote:

The isolation can not last more than a few weeks, or maybe a month - month and 
a half. At that point, we should have reduced the number of walking infections 
without symptoms, and maybe have the ability to actually test for it. After 
that, it's a crap shoot. 

 

bp

 

On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote:

With "flatten the curve" as your primary tool expected to take years and people 
only able to half pay attention for a few weeks, we'll have to find something 
else.



-
Mike Hammett
Intelligent Computing Solutions <http://www.ics-il.com/> 
 <https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL>  
<https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb>  
<https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions>  
<https://twitter.com/ICSIL> 
Midwest Internet Exchange <http://www.midwest-ix.com/> 
 <https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix>  
<https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange>  
<https://twitter.com/mdwestix> 
The Brothers WISP <http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/> 
 <https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp>  
<https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg> 





  _  


From: "Bill Prince"  <mailto:part15...@gmail.com> 
To: af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com> 
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:54:45 PM
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

The "plan" (no jokes please) seems to be short term isolation to try and 
flatten the curve. With that, all the infected people not having symptoms will 
become immune (to some extent) and no longer be contagious. I don't think we 
can keep people bottled up for more than a few weeks.

 

bp

 

On 3/19/2020 12:49 PM, Adam Moffett wrote:

Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is? 

We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all international 
trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run it's course, or so it 
seems to me.

I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't overwhelm the hospital 
capacity and that's great.  Are we going to somehow reduce social isolation 
over time in a controlled way, or will social isolation end organically as 
people get sick of staying home?

 

On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:

I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic 

 

The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not equate hidden 
numbers of magnitude

 

Heres the logic thats completely being ignored

 

The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent tested would have been 
attributed to flu

There has been no reported increase in flu deaths per the anticipated rates 
this year

 

The testing that has been done is very promising. Yesterdays counts of those 
tested were running around 8 percent positive. This does NOT equate to 8 
percent of the population. The "administration bad, nobody can just go get a 
test for curiousity" argument further strengthens this as a promising number. 
The ONLY people being tested for the most part, are those in the very high 
probability category. So of those assumed to be infected, only 8 percent of 
them actually are.

 

We still havent hit globally the number of infections and deaths from the swine 
flu in t

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Jason McKemie]

Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then or you're going to have
people revolting (myself included).

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince  wrote:

> The isolation can not last more than a few weeks, or maybe a month - month
> and a half. At that point, we should have reduced the number of walking
> infections without symptoms, and maybe have the ability to actually test
> for it. After that, it's a crap shoot.
>
>
> bp
> 
>
>
> On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote:
>
> With "flatten the curve" as your primary tool expected to take years and
> people only able to half pay attention for a few weeks, we'll have to find
> something else.
>
>
>
> -
> Mike Hammett
> Intelligent Computing Solutions <http://www.ics-il.com/>
> <https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL>
> <https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb>
> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions>
> <https://twitter.com/ICSIL>
> Midwest Internet Exchange <http://www.midwest-ix.com/>
> <https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix>
> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange>
> <https://twitter.com/mdwestix>
> The Brothers WISP <http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/>
> <https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp>
>
>
> <https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg>
> --
> *From: *"Bill Prince"  
> *To: *af@af.afmug.com
> *Sent: *Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:54:45 PM
> *Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>
> The "plan" (no jokes please) seems to be short term isolation to try and
> flatten the curve. With that, all the infected people not having symptoms
> will become immune (to some extent) and no longer be contagious. I don't
> think we can keep people bottled up for more than a few weeks.
>
>
> bp
> 
>
>
> On 3/19/2020 12:49 PM, Adam Moffett wrote:
>
> Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is?
>
> We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all
> international trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run it's
> course, or so it seems to me.
>
> I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't overwhelm the
> hospital capacity and that's great.  Are we going to somehow reduce social
> isolation over time in a controlled way, or will social isolation end
> organically as people get sick of staying home?
>
>
> On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:
>
> I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic
>
> The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not equate
> hidden numbers of magnitude
>
> Heres the logic thats completely being ignored
>
> The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent tested would have been
> attributed to flu
> There has been no reported increase in flu deaths per the anticipated
> rates this year
>
> The testing that has been done is very promising. Yesterdays counts of
> those tested were running around 8 percent positive. This does NOT equate
> to 8 percent of the population. The "administration bad, nobody can just go
> get a test for curiousity" argument further strengthens this as a promising
> number. The ONLY people being tested for the most part, are those in the
> very high probability category. So of those assumed to be infected, only 8
> percent of them actually are.
>
> We still havent hit globally the number of infections and deaths from the
> swine flu in the US alone. let me reiterate this GLOBALLY TODAY, there are
> less sick and dead, than from swine flu in the US ALONE. The current
> response is such that has never been seen in the history of the planet.
>
> Inmates are an issue, with a guard and an inmate at rikers island infected
> now, we have a national issue. if we dump the prisons, not only do we have
> a ton of criminals on the street, we have hundreds of thousands of indigent
> on the streets in the middle of a pandemic. (maybe not having locked up
> such a percentage of the population in the first place is a whole other OT
> rant). Iran dumped 70k inmates on the streets, i cant imagine that having
> helped their situation.
>
> Morons on spring break making a point of interacting even more than they
> normally would have is illogical enough to eliminate any logic.
>
>
>
>
>
> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:00 PM Mathew Howard 
> wrote:
>
>> I don't know that Russia's numbers are terribly inaccurate... it's really
>> just starting to spread there now, and the numbers aren't far off what
>> other countries reported early on, and the cases they have reported are
>> almost all in Moscow. They als

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Steve Jones]

im watching deblasio, I do not like this guy. He seems to not have a plan
for his demands.
I dont think he knows he lost his bid for potus
Guys like him are making things so much worse with the incessant chicken
littling.
Im not sure what he thinks sending everyone to NY is going to do when
theres no actual response plan from him. There are big cities around the
US. There are small cities suffering too, but apparently people in small
towns dont matter.
Apparently an entire medical ship, in his eyes is nothing

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:47 PM Lewis Bergman 
wrote:

> Governor of Texas shuttered every bar and restaurant for a few weeks. Take
> it and drive through only.
>
> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 3:33 PM  wrote:
>
>> The worse it gets, the better behaved we will be.
>>
>> *From:* castarritt .
>> *Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:15 PM
>> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>>
>> Here is the long term plan:
>>
>>
>> https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
>>
>>
>> TLDR:
>>
>> Option 1: Do nothing, and 4+ million Americans die in a few months as the
>> healthcare system collapses.
>>
>> Option 2: Do some quarantining and social distancing to flatten the
>> curve, and maybe a million Americans die.
>>
>> Option 3: Shut down everything to stop the spread.  Keep everything shut
>> down for ~18 months until everyone is vaccinated.
>>
>> It looks like we are headed for Option 3 right now.  With any luck, we
>> might develop some effective treatments for the virus that would lessen the
>> death toll of switching to Option 2.  Also, they have developed an antibody
>> test now, and anyone who tests positive for the antibodies will be safe
>> from the virus, and unable to spread it to others, so at least those people
>> will be able to go back to work.
>>
>>
>> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:50 PM Adam Moffett  wrote:
>>
>>> Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is?
>>>
>>> We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all
>>> international trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run it's
>>> course, or so it seems to me.
>>>
>>> I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't overwhelm the
>>> hospital capacity and that's great.  Are we going to somehow reduce social
>>> isolation over time in a controlled way, or will social isolation end
>>> organically as people get sick of staying home?
>>>
>>>
>>> On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:
>>>
>>> I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic
>>>
>>> The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not equate
>>> hidden numbers of magnitude
>>>
>>> Heres the logic thats completely being ignored
>>>
>>> The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent tested would have been
>>> attributed to flu
>>> There has been no reported increase in flu deaths per the anticipated
>>> rates this year
>>>
>>> The testing that has been done is very promising. Yesterdays counts of
>>> those tested were running around 8 percent positive. This does NOT equate
>>> to 8 percent of the population. The "administration bad, nobody can just go
>>> get a test for curiousity" argument further strengthens this as a promising
>>> number. The ONLY people being tested for the most part, are those in the
>>> very high probability category. So of those assumed to be infected, only 8
>>> percent of them actually are.
>>>
>>> We still havent hit globally the number of infections and deaths from
>>> the swine flu in the US alone. let me reiterate this GLOBALLY TODAY, there
>>> are less sick and dead, than from swine flu in the US ALONE. The current
>>> response is such that has never been seen in the history of the planet.
>>>
>>> Inmates are an issue, with a guard and an inmate at rikers island
>>> infected now, we have a national issue. if we dump the prisons, not only do
>>> we have a ton of criminals on the street, we have hundreds of thousands of
>>> indigent on the streets in the middle of a pandemic. (maybe not having
>>> locked up such a percentage of the population in the first place is a whole
>>> other OT rant). Iran dumped 70k inmates on the streets, i cant imagine that
>>> having helped their situation.
>>>
>>> Morons on spring break maki

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Lewis Bergman]

Governor of Texas shuttered every bar and restaurant for a few weeks. Take
it and drive through only.

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 3:33 PM  wrote:

> The worse it gets, the better behaved we will be.
>
> *From:* castarritt .
> *Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:15 PM
> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>
> Here is the long term plan:
>
>
> https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
>
>
> TLDR:
>
> Option 1: Do nothing, and 4+ million Americans die in a few months as the
> healthcare system collapses.
>
> Option 2: Do some quarantining and social distancing to flatten the curve,
> and maybe a million Americans die.
>
> Option 3: Shut down everything to stop the spread.  Keep everything shut
> down for ~18 months until everyone is vaccinated.
>
> It looks like we are headed for Option 3 right now.  With any luck, we
> might develop some effective treatments for the virus that would lessen the
> death toll of switching to Option 2.  Also, they have developed an antibody
> test now, and anyone who tests positive for the antibodies will be safe
> from the virus, and unable to spread it to others, so at least those people
> will be able to go back to work.
>
>
> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:50 PM Adam Moffett  wrote:
>
>> Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is?
>>
>> We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all
>> international trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run it's
>> course, or so it seems to me.
>>
>> I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't overwhelm the
>> hospital capacity and that's great.  Are we going to somehow reduce social
>> isolation over time in a controlled way, or will social isolation end
>> organically as people get sick of staying home?
>>
>>
>> On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:
>>
>> I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic
>>
>> The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not equate
>> hidden numbers of magnitude
>>
>> Heres the logic thats completely being ignored
>>
>> The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent tested would have been
>> attributed to flu
>> There has been no reported increase in flu deaths per the anticipated
>> rates this year
>>
>> The testing that has been done is very promising. Yesterdays counts of
>> those tested were running around 8 percent positive. This does NOT equate
>> to 8 percent of the population. The "administration bad, nobody can just go
>> get a test for curiousity" argument further strengthens this as a promising
>> number. The ONLY people being tested for the most part, are those in the
>> very high probability category. So of those assumed to be infected, only 8
>> percent of them actually are.
>>
>> We still havent hit globally the number of infections and deaths from the
>> swine flu in the US alone. let me reiterate this GLOBALLY TODAY, there are
>> less sick and dead, than from swine flu in the US ALONE. The current
>> response is such that has never been seen in the history of the planet.
>>
>> Inmates are an issue, with a guard and an inmate at rikers island
>> infected now, we have a national issue. if we dump the prisons, not only do
>> we have a ton of criminals on the street, we have hundreds of thousands of
>> indigent on the streets in the middle of a pandemic. (maybe not having
>> locked up such a percentage of the population in the first place is a whole
>> other OT rant). Iran dumped 70k inmates on the streets, i cant imagine that
>> having helped their situation.
>>
>> Morons on spring break making a point of interacting even more than they
>> normally would have is illogical enough to eliminate any logic.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:00 PM Mathew Howard 
>> wrote:
>>
>>> I don't know that Russia's numbers are terribly inaccurate... it's
>>> really just starting to spread there now, and the numbers aren't far off
>>> what other countries reported early on, and the cases they have reported
>>> are almost all in Moscow. They also have much tighter border controls than
>>> most of the world, and they're going on lockdown earlier into the outbreak
>>> than most countries did... so it's not unbelievable that they'd have low
>>> numbers at this point.
>>>
>>> But who knows what's really going on in some of these countries... it
>>> certainly wouldn'

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Bill Prince]

  
  
Vaccine is at least a year away. Probably longer.


bp



On 3/19/2020 1:41 PM, James Howard
  wrote:


  
  
  
  
  
That
is the “non pharmaceutical” plan.  Once a vaccine is in
place and a certain percentage are vaccinated things will
start going back to normal and any subsequent deaths will
clearly be seasonal flu related……..
 

  
From: AF
[mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com]
On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 3:32 PM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group

Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
  

 

  

  The
  worse it gets, the better behaved we will be.


  

   


  
From:
castarritt .

  
  
Sent:
Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:15 PM
  
  
To:
AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group

  
  
Subject:
Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
  

  
  
 
  


  
Here
is the long term plan:


   


  https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf 
  
  TLDR:


   


  Option
  1: Do nothing, and 4+ million Americans die in a
  few months as the healthcare system collapses.


   


  Option 2:
  Do some quarantining and social distancing to
  flatten the curve, and maybe a million Americans
  die.
  
  Option 3: Shut down everything to stop the
  spread.  Keep everything shut down for ~18 months
  until everyone is vaccinated.


  It
  looks like we are headed for Option 3 right now. 
  With any luck, we might develop some effective
  treatments for the virus that would lessen the
  death toll of switching to Option 2.  Also, they
  have developed an antibody test now, and anyone
  who tests positive for the antibodies will be safe
  from the virus, and unable to spread it to others,
  so at least those people will be able to go back
  to work.


   

  
  
 
  
  

  On
  Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:50 PM Adam Moffett <dmmoff...@gmail.com>
  wrote:


  
Has
anybody laid out what the long term plan is?

We
can't keep everybody at home forever and we
can't stop all international trade and travel so
sooner or later the virus has to run it's
course, or so it seems to me.
I
know we're trying to slow down the spread so we
don't overwhelm the hospital capacity and that's
great.  Are we going to somehow reduce social
isolation over time in a controlled way, or will
social isolation end organically as people get
sick of staying home?
 

  On
  3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:


  
I
dont know how many times i need to point out
this

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Bill Prince]

  
  
The isolation can not last more than a few weeks, or maybe a
  month - month and a half. At that point, we should have reduced
  the number of walking infections without symptoms, and maybe have
  the ability to actually test for it. After that, it's a crap
  shoot. 



bp



On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett
  wrote:


  
  
  With "flatten the curve" as your primary
tool expected to take years and people only able to half pay
attention for a few weeks, we'll have to find something else.


  
  -
  Mike Hammett
  Intelligent Computing Solutions
  
  Midwest Internet Exchange
  
  The Brothers WISP
  


  


From:
  "Bill Prince" 
  To: af@af.afmug.com
  Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:54:45 PM
      Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
  
  The "plan" (no jokes please) seems to be short term
isolation to try and flatten the curve. With that, all the
infected people not having symptoms will become immune (to
some extent) and no longer be contagious. I don't think we
can keep people bottled up for more than a few weeks.
  
  
  bp



  On 3/19/2020 12:49 PM, Adam
Moffett wrote:
  
  
Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is? 
We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop
  all international trade and travel so sooner or later the
  virus has to run it's course, or so it seems to me.
I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't
  overwhelm the hospital capacity and that's great.  Are we
  going to somehow reduce social isolation over time in a
  controlled way, or will social isolation end organically
  as people get sick of staying home?



On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve
  Jones wrote:


  I dont know how many times i need to point
out this logic


The US is undercounted, thats a given.
  undercounting does not equate hidden numbers of
  magnitude


Heres the logic thats completely being ignored


The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent
  tested would have been attributed to flu
There has been no reported increase in flu deaths
  per the anticipated rates this year


The testing that has been done is very promising.
  Yesterdays counts of those tested were running around
  8 percent positive. This does NOT equate to 8 percent
  of the population. The "administration bad, nobody can
  just go get a test for curiousity" argument further
  strengthens this as a promising number. The ONLY
  people being tested for the most part, are those in
  the very high probability category. So of those
  assumed to be infected, only 8 percent of them
  actually are.


We still havent hit globally the number of
  infections and deaths from the swine flu in the US
  alone. let me reiterate this GLOBALLY TODAY, there are
  less sick and dead, than from swine flu in the US
  ALONE. The current response is such that has never
  been seen in the history of the planet.


Inmates are an issue, with a guard and an inmate at
  rikers island infected now, we have a national issue.
  if we dump the prisons, not only do we have a ton of
  criminals on the street, we have hundreds of thousands
  of indigent on the streets in the middle of a
  pandemic. (maybe not having locked up such a
  percentage of the population in the first place is a
  whole other OT rant). Iran dumped 70k inmates on the
  streets, i cant imagine that having helped their
  situation.


Morons on spring break making a point of
  interacting even more than they normally would have is
 

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[James Howard]

That is the "non pharmaceutical" plan.  Once a vaccine is in place and a 
certain percentage are vaccinated things will start going back to normal and 
any subsequent deaths will clearly be seasonal flu related

From: AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 3:32 PM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

The worse it gets, the better behaved we will be.

From: castarritt .
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:15 PM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

Here is the long term plan:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

TLDR:

Option 1: Do nothing, and 4+ million Americans die in a few months as the 
healthcare system collapses.

Option 2: Do some quarantining and social distancing to flatten the curve, and 
maybe a million Americans die.

Option 3: Shut down everything to stop the spread.  Keep everything shut down 
for ~18 months until everyone is vaccinated.
It looks like we are headed for Option 3 right now.  With any luck, we might 
develop some effective treatments for the virus that would lessen the death 
toll of switching to Option 2.  Also, they have developed an antibody test now, 
and anyone who tests positive for the antibodies will be safe from the virus, 
and unable to spread it to others, so at least those people will be able to go 
back to work.


On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:50 PM Adam Moffett 
mailto:dmmoff...@gmail.com>> wrote:

Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is?

We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all international 
trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run it's course, or so it 
seems to me.

I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't overwhelm the hospital 
capacity and that's great.  Are we going to somehow reduce social isolation 
over time in a controlled way, or will social isolation end organically as 
people get sick of staying home?


On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:
I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic

The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not equate hidden 
numbers of magnitude

Heres the logic thats completely being ignored

The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent tested would have been 
attributed to flu
There has been no reported increase in flu deaths per the anticipated rates 
this year

The testing that has been done is very promising. Yesterdays counts of those 
tested were running around 8 percent positive. This does NOT equate to 8 
percent of the population. The "administration bad, nobody can just go get a 
test for curiousity" argument further strengthens this as a promising number. 
The ONLY people being tested for the most part, are those in the very high 
probability category. So of those assumed to be infected, only 8 percent of 
them actually are.

We still havent hit globally the number of infections and deaths from the swine 
flu in the US alone. let me reiterate this GLOBALLY TODAY, there are less sick 
and dead, than from swine flu in the US ALONE. The current response is such 
that has never been seen in the history of the planet.

Inmates are an issue, with a guard and an inmate at rikers island infected now, 
we have a national issue. if we dump the prisons, not only do we have a ton of 
criminals on the street, we have hundreds of thousands of indigent on the 
streets in the middle of a pandemic. (maybe not having locked up such a 
percentage of the population in the first place is a whole other OT rant). Iran 
dumped 70k inmates on the streets, i cant imagine that having helped their 
situation.

Morons on spring break making a point of interacting even more than they 
normally would have is illogical enough to eliminate any logic.





On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:00 PM Mathew Howard 
mailto:mhoward...@gmail.com>> wrote:
I don't know that Russia's numbers are terribly inaccurate... it's really just 
starting to spread there now, and the numbers aren't far off what other 
countries reported early on, and the cases they have reported are almost all in 
Moscow. They also have much tighter border controls than most of the world, and 
they're going on lockdown earlier into the outbreak than most countries did... 
so it's not unbelievable that they'd have low numbers at this point.

But who knows what's really going on in some of these countries... it certainly 
wouldn't surprise me if China is lying about their numbers, it all depends on 
what they think is in their best interests at this point, and I don't trust any 
information from or about North Korea, no matter what the source is, but the 
high level of government control over everything in North Korea could certainly 
give them an advantage in this situation.



On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:42 PM Bill Prince 
ma

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[chuck]

The worse it gets, the better behaved we will be.

From: castarritt . 
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:15 PM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

Here is the long term plan: 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
 

TLDR:

Option 1: Do nothing, and 4+ million Americans die in a few months as the 
healthcare system collapses.

Option 2: Do some quarantining and social distancing to flatten the curve, and 
maybe a million Americans die.

Option 3: Shut down everything to stop the spread.  Keep everything shut down 
for ~18 months until everyone is vaccinated.


It looks like we are headed for Option 3 right now.  With any luck, we might 
develop some effective treatments for the virus that would lessen the death 
toll of switching to Option 2.  Also, they have developed an antibody test now, 
and anyone who tests positive for the antibodies will be safe from the virus, 
and unable to spread it to others, so at least those people will be able to go 
back to work.


On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:50 PM Adam Moffett  wrote:

  Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is? 

  We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all international 
trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run it's course, or so it 
seems to me.

  I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't overwhelm the 
hospital capacity and that's great.  Are we going to somehow reduce social 
isolation over time in a controlled way, or will social isolation end 
organically as people get sick of staying home?




  On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:

I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic 

The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not equate hidden 
numbers of magnitude

Heres the logic thats completely being ignored

The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent tested would have been 
attributed to flu
There has been no reported increase in flu deaths per the anticipated rates 
this year

The testing that has been done is very promising. Yesterdays counts of 
those tested were running around 8 percent positive. This does NOT equate to 8 
percent of the population. The "administration bad, nobody can just go get a 
test for curiousity" argument further strengthens this as a promising number. 
The ONLY people being tested for the most part, are those in the very high 
probability category. So of those assumed to be infected, only 8 percent of 
them actually are.

We still havent hit globally the number of infections and deaths from the 
swine flu in the US alone. let me reiterate this GLOBALLY TODAY, there are less 
sick and dead, than from swine flu in the US ALONE. The current response is 
such that has never been seen in the history of the planet.

Inmates are an issue, with a guard and an inmate at rikers island infected 
now, we have a national issue. if we dump the prisons, not only do we have a 
ton of criminals on the street, we have hundreds of thousands of indigent on 
the streets in the middle of a pandemic. (maybe not having locked up such a 
percentage of the population in the first place is a whole other OT rant). Iran 
dumped 70k inmates on the streets, i cant imagine that having helped their 
situation.

Morons on spring break making a point of interacting even more than they 
normally would have is illogical enough to eliminate any logic.





On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:00 PM Mathew Howard  wrote:

  I don't know that Russia's numbers are terribly inaccurate... it's really 
just starting to spread there now, and the numbers aren't far off what other 
countries reported early on, and the cases they have reported are almost all in 
Moscow. They also have much tighter border controls than most of the world, and 
they're going on lockdown earlier into the outbreak than most countries did... 
so it's not unbelievable that they'd have low numbers at this point.

  But who knows what's really going on in some of these countries... it 
certainly wouldn't surprise me if China is lying about their numbers, it all 
depends on what they think is in their best interests at this point, and I 
don't trust any information from or about North Korea, no matter what the 
source is, but the high level of government control over everything in North 
Korea could certainly give them an advantage in this situation.




  On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:42 PM Bill Prince  wrote:

North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Russia, India, Mexico. I heard something on 
NPR this morning about mass graves in Iran. It may be years (or never) before 
we understand the scope of this.



bp


On 3/19/2020 11:37 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:

  I still believe North Korea has a huge problem that they are covering 
up.  Especially in the labor camps.  Communal sleeping barns etc.  No 
sanitation 

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Mike Hammett]

With "flatten the curve" as your primary tool expected to take years and people 
only able to half pay attention for a few weeks, we'll have to find something 
else. 




- 
Mike Hammett 
Intelligent Computing Solutions 

Midwest Internet Exchange 

The Brothers WISP 




- Original Message -

From: "Bill Prince"  
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:54:45 PM 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies 


The "plan" (no jokes please) seems to be short term isolation to try and 
flatten the curve. With that, all the infected people not having symptoms will 
become immune (to some extent) and no longer be contagious. I don't think we 
can keep people bottled up for more than a few weeks. 

bp
 
On 3/19/2020 12:49 PM, Adam Moffett wrote: 



Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is? 
We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all international 
trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run it's course, or so it 
seems to me. 
I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't overwhelm the hospital 
capacity and that's great. Are we going to somehow reduce social isolation over 
time in a controlled way, or will social isolation end organically as people 
get sick of staying home? 



On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote: 



I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic 


The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not equate hidden 
numbers of magnitude 


Heres the logic thats completely being ignored 


The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent tested would have been 
attributed to flu 
There has been no reported increase in flu deaths per the anticipated rates 
this year 


The testing that has been done is very promising. Yesterdays counts of those 
tested were running around 8 percent positive. This does NOT equate to 8 
percent of the population. The "administration bad, nobody can just go get a 
test for curiousity" argument further strengthens this as a promising number. 
The ONLY people being tested for the most part, are those in the very high 
probability category. So of those assumed to be infected, only 8 percent of 
them actually are. 


We still havent hit globally the number of infections and deaths from the swine 
flu in the US alone. let me reiterate this GLOBALLY TODAY, there are less sick 
and dead, than from swine flu in the US ALONE. The current response is such 
that has never been seen in the history of the planet. 


Inmates are an issue, with a guard and an inmate at rikers island infected now, 
we have a national issue. if we dump the prisons, not only do we have a ton of 
criminals on the street, we have hundreds of thousands of indigent on the 
streets in the middle of a pandemic. (maybe not having locked up such a 
percentage of the population in the first place is a whole other OT rant). Iran 
dumped 70k inmates on the streets, i cant imagine that having helped their 
situation. 


Morons on spring break making a point of interacting even more than they 
normally would have is illogical enough to eliminate any logic. 










On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:00 PM Mathew Howard < mhoward...@gmail.com > wrote: 




I don't know that Russia's numbers are terribly inaccurate... it's really just 
starting to spread there now, and the numbers aren't far off what other 
countries reported early on, and the cases they have reported are almost all in 
Moscow. They also have much tighter border controls than most of the world, and 
they're going on lockdown earlier into the outbreak than most countries did... 
so it's not unbelievable that they'd have low numbers at this point. 


But who knows what's really going on in some of these countries... it certainly 
wouldn't surprise me if China is lying about their numbers, it all depends on 
what they think is in their best interests at this point, and I don't trust any 
information from or about North Korea, no matter what the source is, but the 
high level of government control over everything in North Korea could certainly 
give them an advantage in this situation. 







On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:42 PM Bill Prince < part15...@gmail.com > wrote: 




North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Russia, India, Mexico. I heard something on NPR this 
morning about mass graves in Iran. It may be years (or never) before we 
understand the scope of this. 

bp
 
On 3/19/2020 11:37 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote: 





I still believe North Korea has a huge problem that they are covering up. 
Especially in the labor camps. Communal sleeping barns etc. No sanitation 
facilities. 




From: Bill Prince 
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:34 PM 
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies 


Only if they attribute it properly. There is plenty of data to indicate that 
deaths have been incorrectly attributed, 
bp
 
On 3/19/2020 11:09 AM, James Howard wrote: 


the death count is the death count 



-- 
A

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[castarritt .]

Here is the long term plan:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf


TLDR:

Option 1: Do nothing, and 4+ million Americans die in a few months as the
healthcare system collapses.

Option 2: Do some quarantining and social distancing to flatten the curve,
and maybe a million Americans die.

Option 3: Shut down everything to stop the spread.  Keep everything shut
down for ~18 months until everyone is vaccinated.

It looks like we are headed for Option 3 right now.  With any luck, we
might develop some effective treatments for the virus that would lessen the
death toll of switching to Option 2.  Also, they have developed an antibody
test now, and anyone who tests positive for the antibodies will be safe
from the virus, and unable to spread it to others, so at least those people
will be able to go back to work.


On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:50 PM Adam Moffett  wrote:

> Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is?
>
> We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all
> international trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run it's
> course, or so it seems to me.
>
> I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't overwhelm the
> hospital capacity and that's great.  Are we going to somehow reduce social
> isolation over time in a controlled way, or will social isolation end
> organically as people get sick of staying home?
>
>
> On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:
>
> I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic
>
> The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not equate
> hidden numbers of magnitude
>
> Heres the logic thats completely being ignored
>
> The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent tested would have been
> attributed to flu
> There has been no reported increase in flu deaths per the anticipated
> rates this year
>
> The testing that has been done is very promising. Yesterdays counts of
> those tested were running around 8 percent positive. This does NOT equate
> to 8 percent of the population. The "administration bad, nobody can just go
> get a test for curiousity" argument further strengthens this as a promising
> number. The ONLY people being tested for the most part, are those in the
> very high probability category. So of those assumed to be infected, only 8
> percent of them actually are.
>
> We still havent hit globally the number of infections and deaths from the
> swine flu in the US alone. let me reiterate this GLOBALLY TODAY, there are
> less sick and dead, than from swine flu in the US ALONE. The current
> response is such that has never been seen in the history of the planet.
>
> Inmates are an issue, with a guard and an inmate at rikers island infected
> now, we have a national issue. if we dump the prisons, not only do we have
> a ton of criminals on the street, we have hundreds of thousands of indigent
> on the streets in the middle of a pandemic. (maybe not having locked up
> such a percentage of the population in the first place is a whole other OT
> rant). Iran dumped 70k inmates on the streets, i cant imagine that having
> helped their situation.
>
> Morons on spring break making a point of interacting even more than they
> normally would have is illogical enough to eliminate any logic.
>
>
>
>
>
> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:00 PM Mathew Howard 
> wrote:
>
>> I don't know that Russia's numbers are terribly inaccurate... it's really
>> just starting to spread there now, and the numbers aren't far off what
>> other countries reported early on, and the cases they have reported are
>> almost all in Moscow. They also have much tighter border controls than most
>> of the world, and they're going on lockdown earlier into the outbreak than
>> most countries did... so it's not unbelievable that they'd have low numbers
>> at this point.
>>
>> But who knows what's really going on in some of these countries... it
>> certainly wouldn't surprise me if China is lying about their numbers, it
>> all depends on what they think is in their best interests at this point,
>> and I don't trust any information from or about North Korea, no matter what
>> the source is, but the high level of government control over everything in
>> North Korea could certainly give them an advantage in this situation.
>>
>>
>>
>> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:42 PM Bill Prince  wrote:
>>
>>> North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Russia, India, Mexico. I heard something on NPR
>>> this morning about mass graves in Iran. It may be years (or never) before
>>> we understand the scope of this.
>>>
>>>
>>> bp
>>> 
>>

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Ken Hohhof]

Try Googling “The Coronavirus Is Here to Stay, So What Happens Next?”

 

It seems like links from Google are often exempt from paywalls.

 

 

From: AF  On Behalf Of Carl Peterson
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 3:03 PM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

 

My wife subscribes to the NYT, but I don't bother to log in.  Just let it start 
to load the story then stop it before it loads the paywall. 

 

 

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:59 PM mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com> > 
wrote:

Paywall...

 

From: Ken Hohhof 

Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 1:56 PM

To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' 

Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

 

I don’t know if this will be behind a paywall or not, but it says there will be 
several waves until eventually enough people have immunity or there is a virus 
or treatment.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-social-distancing-effect.html

 

It says “opinion” but it’s by 3 doctors, none of whom is named Oz or Phil.

 

From: AF mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com> > On Behalf 
Of Adam Moffett
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:50 PM
To: af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com> 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

 

Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is? 

We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all international 
trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run it's course, or so it 
seems to me.

I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't overwhelm the hospital 
capacity and that's great.  Are we going to somehow reduce social isolation 
over time in a controlled way, or will social isolation end organically as 
people get sick of staying home?

 

On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:

I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic 

 

The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not equate hidden 
numbers of magnitude

 

Heres the logic thats completely being ignored

 

The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent tested would have been 
attributed to flu

There has been no reported increase in flu deaths per the anticipated rates 
this year

 

The testing that has been done is very promising. Yesterdays counts of those 
tested were running around 8 percent positive. This does NOT equate to 8 
percent of the population. The "administration bad, nobody can just go get a 
test for curiousity" argument further strengthens this as a promising number. 
The ONLY people being tested for the most part, are those in the very high 
probability category. So of those assumed to be infected, only 8 percent of 
them actually are.

 

We still havent hit globally the number of infections and deaths from the swine 
flu in the US alone. let me reiterate this GLOBALLY TODAY, there are less sick 
and dead, than from swine flu in the US ALONE. The current response is such 
that has never been seen in the history of the planet.

 

Inmates are an issue, with a guard and an inmate at rikers island infected now, 
we have a national issue. if we dump the prisons, not only do we have a ton of 
criminals on the street, we have hundreds of thousands of indigent on the 
streets in the middle of a pandemic. (maybe not having locked up such a 
percentage of the population in the first place is a whole other OT rant). Iran 
dumped 70k inmates on the streets, i cant imagine that having helped their 
situation.

 

Morons on spring break making a point of interacting even more than they 
normally would have is illogical enough to eliminate any logic.

 

 

 

 

 

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:00 PM Mathew Howard mailto:mhoward...@gmail.com> > wrote:

I don't know that Russia's numbers are terribly inaccurate... it's really just 
starting to spread there now, and the numbers aren't far off what other 
countries reported early on, and the cases they have reported are almost all in 
Moscow. They also have much tighter border controls than most of the world, and 
they're going on lockdown earlier into the outbreak than most countries did... 
so it's not unbelievable that they'd have low numbers at this point.

 

But who knows what's really going on in some of these countries... it certainly 
wouldn't surprise me if China is lying about their numbers, it all depends on 
what they think is in their best interests at this point, and I don't trust any 
information from or about North Korea, no matter what the source is, but the 
high level of government control over everything in North Korea could certainly 
give them an advantage in this situation.

 

 

 

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:42 PM Bill Prince mailto:part15...@gmail.com> > wrote:

North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Russia, India, Mexico. I heard something on NPR this 
morning about mass graves in Iran. It may be years (or never) before we 
understand the scope of this.

 

bp

 

On 3/19/2020 11:37 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>  wrote:

I still believe North K

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Carl Peterson]

My wife subscribes to the NYT, but I don't bother to log in.  Just let it
start to load the story then stop it before it loads the paywall.


On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:59 PM  wrote:

> Paywall...
>
> *From:* Ken Hohhof
> *Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 1:56 PM
> *To:* 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group'
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>
>
> I don’t know if this will be behind a paywall or not, but it says there
> will be several waves until eventually enough people have immunity or there
> is a virus or treatment.
>
>
>
>
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-social-distancing-effect.html
>
>
>
> It says “opinion” but it’s by 3 doctors, none of whom is named Oz or Phil.
>
>
>
> *From:* AF  *On Behalf Of *Adam Moffett
> *Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:50 PM
> *To:* af@af.afmug.com
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>
>
>
> Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is?
>
> We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all
> international trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run it's
> course, or so it seems to me.
>
> I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't overwhelm the
> hospital capacity and that's great.  Are we going to somehow reduce social
> isolation over time in a controlled way, or will social isolation end
> organically as people get sick of staying home?
>
>
>
> On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:
>
> I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic
>
>
>
> The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not equate
> hidden numbers of magnitude
>
>
>
> Heres the logic thats completely being ignored
>
>
>
> The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent tested would have been
> attributed to flu
>
> There has been no reported increase in flu deaths per the anticipated
> rates this year
>
>
>
> The testing that has been done is very promising. Yesterdays counts of
> those tested were running around 8 percent positive. This does NOT equate
> to 8 percent of the population. The "administration bad, nobody can just go
> get a test for curiousity" argument further strengthens this as a promising
> number. The ONLY people being tested for the most part, are those in the
> very high probability category. So of those assumed to be infected, only 8
> percent of them actually are.
>
>
>
> We still havent hit globally the number of infections and deaths from the
> swine flu in the US alone. let me reiterate this GLOBALLY TODAY, there are
> less sick and dead, than from swine flu in the US ALONE. The current
> response is such that has never been seen in the history of the planet.
>
>
>
> Inmates are an issue, with a guard and an inmate at rikers island infected
> now, we have a national issue. if we dump the prisons, not only do we have
> a ton of criminals on the street, we have hundreds of thousands of indigent
> on the streets in the middle of a pandemic. (maybe not having locked up
> such a percentage of the population in the first place is a whole other OT
> rant). Iran dumped 70k inmates on the streets, i cant imagine that having
> helped their situation.
>
>
>
> Morons on spring break making a point of interacting even more than they
> normally would have is illogical enough to eliminate any logic.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:00 PM Mathew Howard 
> wrote:
>
> I don't know that Russia's numbers are terribly inaccurate... it's really
> just starting to spread there now, and the numbers aren't far off what
> other countries reported early on, and the cases they have reported are
> almost all in Moscow. They also have much tighter border controls than most
> of the world, and they're going on lockdown earlier into the outbreak than
> most countries did... so it's not unbelievable that they'd have low numbers
> at this point.
>
>
>
> But who knows what's really going on in some of these countries... it
> certainly wouldn't surprise me if China is lying about their numbers, it
> all depends on what they think is in their best interests at this point,
> and I don't trust any information from or about North Korea, no matter what
> the source is, but the high level of government control over everything in
> North Korea could certainly give them an advantage in this situation.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:42 PM Bill Prince  wrote:
>
> North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Russia, India, Mexico. I heard something on NPR
> this morning about mass graves in Iran. It may be years (or never) before
> we understand the scope of this.
>
>
>
> bp
>
> 

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[chuck]

Paywall...

From: Ken Hohhof 
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 1:56 PM
To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

I don’t know if this will be behind a paywall or not, but it says there will be 
several waves until eventually enough people have immunity or there is a virus 
or treatment.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-social-distancing-effect.html

 

It says “opinion” but it’s by 3 doctors, none of whom is named Oz or Phil.

 

From: AF  On Behalf Of Adam Moffett
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:50 PM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

 

Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is? 

We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all international 
trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run it's course, or so it 
seems to me.

I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't overwhelm the hospital 
capacity and that's great.  Are we going to somehow reduce social isolation 
over time in a controlled way, or will social isolation end organically as 
people get sick of staying home?

 

On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:

  I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic 

   

  The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not equate hidden 
numbers of magnitude

   

  Heres the logic thats completely being ignored

   

  The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent tested would have been 
attributed to flu

  There has been no reported increase in flu deaths per the anticipated rates 
this year

   

  The testing that has been done is very promising. Yesterdays counts of those 
tested were running around 8 percent positive. This does NOT equate to 8 
percent of the population. The "administration bad, nobody can just go get a 
test for curiousity" argument further strengthens this as a promising number. 
The ONLY people being tested for the most part, are those in the very high 
probability category. So of those assumed to be infected, only 8 percent of 
them actually are.

   

  We still havent hit globally the number of infections and deaths from the 
swine flu in the US alone. let me reiterate this GLOBALLY TODAY, there are less 
sick and dead, than from swine flu in the US ALONE. The current response is 
such that has never been seen in the history of the planet.

   

  Inmates are an issue, with a guard and an inmate at rikers island infected 
now, we have a national issue. if we dump the prisons, not only do we have a 
ton of criminals on the street, we have hundreds of thousands of indigent on 
the streets in the middle of a pandemic. (maybe not having locked up such a 
percentage of the population in the first place is a whole other OT rant). Iran 
dumped 70k inmates on the streets, i cant imagine that having helped their 
situation.

   

  Morons on spring break making a point of interacting even more than they 
normally would have is illogical enough to eliminate any logic.

   

   

   

   

   

  On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:00 PM Mathew Howard  wrote:

I don't know that Russia's numbers are terribly inaccurate... it's really 
just starting to spread there now, and the numbers aren't far off what other 
countries reported early on, and the cases they have reported are almost all in 
Moscow. They also have much tighter border controls than most of the world, and 
they're going on lockdown earlier into the outbreak than most countries did... 
so it's not unbelievable that they'd have low numbers at this point.

 

But who knows what's really going on in some of these countries... it 
certainly wouldn't surprise me if China is lying about their numbers, it all 
depends on what they think is in their best interests at this point, and I 
don't trust any information from or about North Korea, no matter what the 
source is, but the high level of government control over everything in North 
Korea could certainly give them an advantage in this situation.

 

 

 

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:42 PM Bill Prince  wrote:

  North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Russia, India, Mexico. I heard something on NPR 
this morning about mass graves in Iran. It may be years (or never) before we 
understand the scope of this.

   

bp On 3/19/2020 11:37 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:

I still believe North Korea has a huge problem that they are covering 
up.  Especially in the labor camps.  Communal sleeping barns etc.  No 
sanitation facilities.  

 

From: Bill Prince 

Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:34 PM

To: af@af.afmug.com 

    Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

 

Only if they attribute it properly. There is plenty of data to indicate 
that deaths have been incorrectly attributed,

bp On 3/19/2020 11:09 AM, James Howard wrote:

  the death count is the d

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Steve Jones]

When it passes everyone will forget, like every other time it happens, even
with the historic global response.

There are going to be a huge number of booming industries created. Remote
workplace was on the rise, but still niche, it will become norm (its so
much cheaper)

we will see what comes from the first trillionaires that will be coming out
of the stock market recovery. They will effectively have more money than
god and will be able to dictate a whole lot of what happens, good or bad,
depending on what type of person they are.



On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:50 PM Adam Moffett  wrote:

> Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is?
>
> We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all
> international trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run it's
> course, or so it seems to me.
>
> I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't overwhelm the
> hospital capacity and that's great.  Are we going to somehow reduce social
> isolation over time in a controlled way, or will social isolation end
> organically as people get sick of staying home?
>
>
> On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:
>
> I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic
>
> The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not equate
> hidden numbers of magnitude
>
> Heres the logic thats completely being ignored
>
> The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent tested would have been
> attributed to flu
> There has been no reported increase in flu deaths per the anticipated
> rates this year
>
> The testing that has been done is very promising. Yesterdays counts of
> those tested were running around 8 percent positive. This does NOT equate
> to 8 percent of the population. The "administration bad, nobody can just go
> get a test for curiousity" argument further strengthens this as a promising
> number. The ONLY people being tested for the most part, are those in the
> very high probability category. So of those assumed to be infected, only 8
> percent of them actually are.
>
> We still havent hit globally the number of infections and deaths from the
> swine flu in the US alone. let me reiterate this GLOBALLY TODAY, there are
> less sick and dead, than from swine flu in the US ALONE. The current
> response is such that has never been seen in the history of the planet.
>
> Inmates are an issue, with a guard and an inmate at rikers island infected
> now, we have a national issue. if we dump the prisons, not only do we have
> a ton of criminals on the street, we have hundreds of thousands of indigent
> on the streets in the middle of a pandemic. (maybe not having locked up
> such a percentage of the population in the first place is a whole other OT
> rant). Iran dumped 70k inmates on the streets, i cant imagine that having
> helped their situation.
>
> Morons on spring break making a point of interacting even more than they
> normally would have is illogical enough to eliminate any logic.
>
>
>
>
>
> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:00 PM Mathew Howard 
> wrote:
>
>> I don't know that Russia's numbers are terribly inaccurate... it's really
>> just starting to spread there now, and the numbers aren't far off what
>> other countries reported early on, and the cases they have reported are
>> almost all in Moscow. They also have much tighter border controls than most
>> of the world, and they're going on lockdown earlier into the outbreak than
>> most countries did... so it's not unbelievable that they'd have low numbers
>> at this point.
>>
>> But who knows what's really going on in some of these countries... it
>> certainly wouldn't surprise me if China is lying about their numbers, it
>> all depends on what they think is in their best interests at this point,
>> and I don't trust any information from or about North Korea, no matter what
>> the source is, but the high level of government control over everything in
>> North Korea could certainly give them an advantage in this situation.
>>
>>
>>
>> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:42 PM Bill Prince  wrote:
>>
>>> North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Russia, India, Mexico. I heard something on NPR
>>> this morning about mass graves in Iran. It may be years (or never) before
>>> we understand the scope of this.
>>>
>>>
>>> bp
>>> 
>>>
>>>
>>> On 3/19/2020 11:37 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
>>>
>>> I still believe North Korea has a huge problem that they are covering
>>> up.  Especially in the labor camps.  Communal sleeping barns etc.  No
>>> sanitation facilities.
>>>
>>> *From:* Bill Prince
>>> *Sent:* Thursday, March 

Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Ken Hohhof]

I don’t know if this will be behind a paywall or not, but it says there will be 
several waves until eventually enough people have immunity or there is a virus 
or treatment.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-social-distancing-effect.html

 

It says “opinion” but it’s by 3 doctors, none of whom is named Oz or Phil.

 

From: AF  On Behalf Of Adam Moffett
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:50 PM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

 

Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is? 

We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all international 
trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run it's course, or so it 
seems to me.

I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't overwhelm the hospital 
capacity and that's great.  Are we going to somehow reduce social isolation 
over time in a controlled way, or will social isolation end organically as 
people get sick of staying home?

 

On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:

I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic 

 

The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not equate hidden 
numbers of magnitude

 

Heres the logic thats completely being ignored

 

The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent tested would have been 
attributed to flu

There has been no reported increase in flu deaths per the anticipated rates 
this year

 

The testing that has been done is very promising. Yesterdays counts of those 
tested were running around 8 percent positive. This does NOT equate to 8 
percent of the population. The "administration bad, nobody can just go get a 
test for curiousity" argument further strengthens this as a promising number. 
The ONLY people being tested for the most part, are those in the very high 
probability category. So of those assumed to be infected, only 8 percent of 
them actually are.

 

We still havent hit globally the number of infections and deaths from the swine 
flu in the US alone. let me reiterate this GLOBALLY TODAY, there are less sick 
and dead, than from swine flu in the US ALONE. The current response is such 
that has never been seen in the history of the planet.

 

Inmates are an issue, with a guard and an inmate at rikers island infected now, 
we have a national issue. if we dump the prisons, not only do we have a ton of 
criminals on the street, we have hundreds of thousands of indigent on the 
streets in the middle of a pandemic. (maybe not having locked up such a 
percentage of the population in the first place is a whole other OT rant). Iran 
dumped 70k inmates on the streets, i cant imagine that having helped their 
situation.

 

Morons on spring break making a point of interacting even more than they 
normally would have is illogical enough to eliminate any logic.

 

 

 

 

 

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:00 PM Mathew Howard mailto:mhoward...@gmail.com> > wrote:

I don't know that Russia's numbers are terribly inaccurate... it's really just 
starting to spread there now, and the numbers aren't far off what other 
countries reported early on, and the cases they have reported are almost all in 
Moscow. They also have much tighter border controls than most of the world, and 
they're going on lockdown earlier into the outbreak than most countries did... 
so it's not unbelievable that they'd have low numbers at this point.

 

But who knows what's really going on in some of these countries... it certainly 
wouldn't surprise me if China is lying about their numbers, it all depends on 
what they think is in their best interests at this point, and I don't trust any 
information from or about North Korea, no matter what the source is, but the 
high level of government control over everything in North Korea could certainly 
give them an advantage in this situation.

 

 

 

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:42 PM Bill Prince mailto:part15...@gmail.com> > wrote:

North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Russia, India, Mexico. I heard something on NPR this 
morning about mass graves in Iran. It may be years (or never) before we 
understand the scope of this.

 

bp

 

On 3/19/2020 11:37 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>  wrote:

I still believe North Korea has a huge problem that they are covering up.  
Especially in the labor camps.  Communal sleeping barns etc.  No sanitation 
facilities.  

 

From: Bill Prince 

Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:34 PM

To: af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>  

Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

 

Only if they attribute it properly. There is plenty of data to indicate that 
deaths have been incorrectly attributed,

bp

 

On 3/19/2020 11:09 AM, James Howard wrote:

the death count is the death count


  _  


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Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Bill Prince]

:42 PM Bill Prince <part15...@gmail.com>
wrote:
  
  

  North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Russia, India, Mexico. I
heard something on NPR this morning about mass
graves in Iran. It may be years (or never) before we
understand the scope of this.
  
  
  bp



  On 3/19/2020 11:37 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
  
  

  
I still believe North Korea has a huge
  problem that they are covering up.  Especially
  in the labor camps.  Communal sleeping barns
  etc.  No sanitation facilities.  

  
 

  From: Bill Prince
  
  Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020
12:34 PM
  To: af@af.afmug.com
  
                  Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus
    anomalies

  
   


  Only if they attribute it properly. There
is plenty of data to indicate that deaths
have been incorrectly attributed,
  
  bp



  On 3/19/2020 11:09 AM, James Howard
wrote:
  
  the
  death count is the death count
   
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Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[chuck]

Well since China in the town where this started reported no new cases, it 
appears it has run its course there.  4 months.
One would hope we can improve on that 4 month a bit.  Hopefully no longer than 
4 months from the first reported case.  

From: Adam Moffett 
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 1:49 PM
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is? 

We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all international 
trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run it's course, or so it 
seems to me.

I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't overwhelm the hospital 
capacity and that's great.  Are we going to somehow reduce social isolation 
over time in a controlled way, or will social isolation end organically as 
people get sick of staying home?




On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:

  I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic 

  The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not equate hidden 
numbers of magnitude

  Heres the logic thats completely being ignored

  The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent tested would have been 
attributed to flu
  There has been no reported increase in flu deaths per the anticipated rates 
this year

  The testing that has been done is very promising. Yesterdays counts of those 
tested were running around 8 percent positive. This does NOT equate to 8 
percent of the population. The "administration bad, nobody can just go get a 
test for curiousity" argument further strengthens this as a promising number. 
The ONLY people being tested for the most part, are those in the very high 
probability category. So of those assumed to be infected, only 8 percent of 
them actually are.

  We still havent hit globally the number of infections and deaths from the 
swine flu in the US alone. let me reiterate this GLOBALLY TODAY, there are less 
sick and dead, than from swine flu in the US ALONE. The current response is 
such that has never been seen in the history of the planet.

  Inmates are an issue, with a guard and an inmate at rikers island infected 
now, we have a national issue. if we dump the prisons, not only do we have a 
ton of criminals on the street, we have hundreds of thousands of indigent on 
the streets in the middle of a pandemic. (maybe not having locked up such a 
percentage of the population in the first place is a whole other OT rant). Iran 
dumped 70k inmates on the streets, i cant imagine that having helped their 
situation.

  Morons on spring break making a point of interacting even more than they 
normally would have is illogical enough to eliminate any logic.





  On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:00 PM Mathew Howard  wrote:

I don't know that Russia's numbers are terribly inaccurate... it's really 
just starting to spread there now, and the numbers aren't far off what other 
countries reported early on, and the cases they have reported are almost all in 
Moscow. They also have much tighter border controls than most of the world, and 
they're going on lockdown earlier into the outbreak than most countries did... 
so it's not unbelievable that they'd have low numbers at this point.

But who knows what's really going on in some of these countries... it 
certainly wouldn't surprise me if China is lying about their numbers, it all 
depends on what they think is in their best interests at this point, and I 
don't trust any information from or about North Korea, no matter what the 
source is, but the high level of government control over everything in North 
Korea could certainly give them an advantage in this situation.




On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:42 PM Bill Prince  wrote:

  North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Russia, India, Mexico. I heard something on NPR 
this morning about mass graves in Iran. It may be years (or never) before we 
understand the scope of this.



bp


On 3/19/2020 11:37 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:

I still believe North Korea has a huge problem that they are covering 
up.  Especially in the labor camps.  Communal sleeping barns etc.  No 
sanitation facilities.  

From: Bill Prince 
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:34 PM
To: af@af.afmug.com 
    Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

Only if they attribute it properly. There is plenty of data to indicate 
that deaths have been incorrectly attributed,


bp


On 3/19/2020 11:09 AM, James Howard wrote:

  the death count is the death count


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Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Adam Moffett]

Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is?

We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all 
international trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run 
it's course, or so it seems to me.


I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't overwhelm the 
hospital capacity and that's great.  Are we going to somehow reduce 
social isolation over time in a controlled way, or will social isolation 
end organically as people get sick of staying home?



On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:

I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic

The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not equate 
hidden numbers of magnitude


Heres the logic thats completely being ignored

The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent tested would have been 
attributed to flu
There has been no reported increase in flu deaths per the anticipated 
rates this year


The testing that has been done is very promising. Yesterdays counts of 
those tested were running around 8 percent positive. This does NOT 
equate to 8 percent of the population. The "administration bad, nobody 
can just go get a test for curiousity" argument further strengthens 
this as a promising number. The ONLY people being tested for the most 
part, are those in the very high probability category. So of those 
assumed to be infected, only 8 percent of them actually are.


We still havent hit globally the number of infections and deaths from 
the swine flu in the US alone. let me reiterate this GLOBALLY TODAY, 
there are less sick and dead, than from swine flu in the US ALONE. The 
current response is such that has never been seen in the history of 
the planet.


Inmates are an issue, with a guard and an inmate at rikers island 
infected now, we have a national issue. if we dump the prisons, not 
only do we have a ton of criminals on the street, we have hundreds of 
thousands of indigent on the streets in the middle of a pandemic. 
(maybe not having locked up such a percentage of the population in the 
first place is a whole other OT rant). Iran dumped 70k inmates on the 
streets, i cant imagine that having helped their situation.


Morons on spring break making a point of interacting even more than 
they normally would have is illogical enough to eliminate any logic.






On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:00 PM Mathew Howard <mailto:mhoward...@gmail.com>> wrote:


I don't know that Russia's numbers are terribly inaccurate... it's
really just starting to spread there now, and the numbers aren't
far off what other countries reported early on, and the cases they
have reported are almost all in Moscow. They also have much
tighter border controls than most of the world, and they're going
on lockdown earlier into the outbreak than most countries did...
so it's not unbelievable that they'd have low numbers at this point.

But who knows what's really going on in some of these countries...
it certainly wouldn't surprise me if China is lying about their
numbers, it all depends on what they think is in their best
interests at this point, and I don't trust any information from or
about North Korea, no matter what the source is, but the high
level of government control over everything in North Korea could
certainly give them an advantage in this situation.



On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:42 PM Bill Prince mailto:part15...@gmail.com>> wrote:

North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Russia, India, Mexico. I heard
something on NPR this morning about mass graves in Iran. It
may be years (or never) before we understand the scope of this.


bp


On 3/19/2020 11:37 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com
<mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com> wrote:

I still believe North Korea has a huge problem that they are
covering up.  Especially in the labor camps.  Communal
sleeping barns etc.  No sanitation facilities.
*From:* Bill Prince
*Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:34 PM
*To:* af@af.afmug.com
    *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

Only if they attribute it properly. There is plenty of data
to indicate that deaths have been incorrectly attributed,

bp


On 3/19/2020 11:09 AM, James Howard wrote:

the death count is the death count



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Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Steve Jones]

I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic

The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not equate hidden
numbers of magnitude

Heres the logic thats completely being ignored

The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent tested would have been
attributed to flu
There has been no reported increase in flu deaths per the anticipated rates
this year

The testing that has been done is very promising. Yesterdays counts of
those tested were running around 8 percent positive. This does NOT equate
to 8 percent of the population. The "administration bad, nobody can just go
get a test for curiousity" argument further strengthens this as a promising
number. The ONLY people being tested for the most part, are those in the
very high probability category. So of those assumed to be infected, only 8
percent of them actually are.

We still havent hit globally the number of infections and deaths from the
swine flu in the US alone. let me reiterate this GLOBALLY TODAY, there are
less sick and dead, than from swine flu in the US ALONE. The current
response is such that has never been seen in the history of the planet.

Inmates are an issue, with a guard and an inmate at rikers island infected
now, we have a national issue. if we dump the prisons, not only do we have
a ton of criminals on the street, we have hundreds of thousands of indigent
on the streets in the middle of a pandemic. (maybe not having locked up
such a percentage of the population in the first place is a whole other OT
rant). Iran dumped 70k inmates on the streets, i cant imagine that having
helped their situation.

Morons on spring break making a point of interacting even more than they
normally would have is illogical enough to eliminate any logic.





On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:00 PM Mathew Howard  wrote:

> I don't know that Russia's numbers are terribly inaccurate... it's really
> just starting to spread there now, and the numbers aren't far off what
> other countries reported early on, and the cases they have reported are
> almost all in Moscow. They also have much tighter border controls than most
> of the world, and they're going on lockdown earlier into the outbreak than
> most countries did... so it's not unbelievable that they'd have low numbers
> at this point.
>
> But who knows what's really going on in some of these countries... it
> certainly wouldn't surprise me if China is lying about their numbers, it
> all depends on what they think is in their best interests at this point,
> and I don't trust any information from or about North Korea, no matter what
> the source is, but the high level of government control over everything in
> North Korea could certainly give them an advantage in this situation.
>
>
>
> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:42 PM Bill Prince  wrote:
>
>> North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Russia, India, Mexico. I heard something on NPR
>> this morning about mass graves in Iran. It may be years (or never) before
>> we understand the scope of this.
>>
>>
>> bp
>> 
>>
>>
>> On 3/19/2020 11:37 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
>>
>> I still believe North Korea has a huge problem that they are covering
>> up.  Especially in the labor camps.  Communal sleeping barns etc.  No
>> sanitation facilities.
>>
>> *From:* Bill Prince
>> *Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:34 PM
>> *To:* af@af.afmug.com
>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>>
>>
>> Only if they attribute it properly. There is plenty of data to indicate
>> that deaths have been incorrectly attributed,
>>
>> bp
>> 
>>
>>
>> On 3/19/2020 11:09 AM, James Howard wrote:
>>
>> the death count is the death count
>>
>> --
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>> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>>
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Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Adam Moffett]

There's a satellite picture of a cemetery in Iran where they dug 
trenches and have a pile of something white nearby.  Presumed to be a 
burial pit and a pile of lime.  It could be a mass grave or preparation 
for a mass grave.  I don't know if that's assumed or if it's a fact.



On 3/19/2020 2:41 PM, Bill Prince wrote:


North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Russia, India, Mexico. I heard something on 
NPR this morning about mass graves in Iran. It may be years (or never) 
before we understand the scope of this.



bp


On 3/19/2020 11:37 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
I still believe North Korea has a huge problem that they are covering 
up.  Especially in the labor camps. Communal sleeping barns etc.  No 
sanitation facilities.

*From:* Bill Prince
*Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:34 PM
*To:* af@af.afmug.com
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

Only if they attribute it properly. There is plenty of data to 
indicate that deaths have been incorrectly attributed,


bp


On 3/19/2020 11:09 AM, James Howard wrote:

the death count is the death count



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Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Mathew Howard]

I don't know that Russia's numbers are terribly inaccurate... it's really
just starting to spread there now, and the numbers aren't far off what
other countries reported early on, and the cases they have reported are
almost all in Moscow. They also have much tighter border controls than most
of the world, and they're going on lockdown earlier into the outbreak than
most countries did... so it's not unbelievable that they'd have low numbers
at this point.

But who knows what's really going on in some of these countries... it
certainly wouldn't surprise me if China is lying about their numbers, it
all depends on what they think is in their best interests at this point,
and I don't trust any information from or about North Korea, no matter what
the source is, but the high level of government control over everything in
North Korea could certainly give them an advantage in this situation.



On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:42 PM Bill Prince  wrote:

> North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Russia, India, Mexico. I heard something on NPR
> this morning about mass graves in Iran. It may be years (or never) before
> we understand the scope of this.
>
>
> bp
> 
>
>
> On 3/19/2020 11:37 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
>
> I still believe North Korea has a huge problem that they are covering up.
> Especially in the labor camps.  Communal sleeping barns etc.  No sanitation
> facilities.
>
> *From:* Bill Prince
> *Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:34 PM
> *To:* af@af.afmug.com
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
>
>
> Only if they attribute it properly. There is plenty of data to indicate
> that deaths have been incorrectly attributed,
>
> bp
> 
>
>
> On 3/19/2020 11:09 AM, James Howard wrote:
>
> the death count is the death count
>
> --
> --
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Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Bill Prince]

  
  
North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Russia, India, Mexico. I heard something
  on NPR this morning about mass graves in Iran. It may be years (or
  never) before we understand the scope of this.


bp



On 3/19/2020 11:37 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com
  wrote:


  
  

  I still believe North Korea has a huge problem that they
are covering up.  Especially in the labor camps.  Communal
sleeping barns etc.  No sanitation facilities.  
  

   
  
From: Bill
Prince 
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:34 PM
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
  

 
  
  
Only if they attribute it properly. There is plenty of
  data to indicate that deaths have been incorrectly
  attributed,

bp



On 3/19/2020 11:09 AM, James
  Howard wrote:

the
death count is the death count



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Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Adam Moffett]

They also might have the the tightest borders on the planet and a regime 
crazy enough to do just about anything.  They might have a big problem 
or none at all.



On 3/19/2020 2:37 PM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
I still believe North Korea has a huge problem that they are covering 
up.  Especially in the labor camps.  Communal sleeping barns etc.  No 
sanitation facilities.

*From:* Bill Prince
*Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:34 PM
*To:* af@af.afmug.com
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

Only if they attribute it properly. There is plenty of data to 
indicate that deaths have been incorrectly attributed,


bp


On 3/19/2020 11:09 AM, James Howard wrote:

the death count is the death count



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Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Ken Hohhof]

Maybe drinking vodka instead of rubbing it on your hands prevents Covid19.

 

From: AF  On Behalf Of Bill Prince
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 1:03 PM
To: AFMUG 
Subject: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

 

As this whole COVID-19 thing evolves, there are emerging numerous anomalies WRT 
cases vs population vs deaths.

At this point, it looks like Italy (population 60 million) has the highest per 
capita cases and deaths (35,713 cases, 2,978 deaths). In a few days, their 
fatality rate will exceed China's).

The US is an outlier with a population of 360 million, yet only 10,755 cases, 
and only 154 deaths. This is probably a massive under-count driven by the lack 
of testing.

Russia with a population of 140 million has had only 199 cases and 1 death. 
Does anyone think this is real?

India with a population of 1.3 billion has had only 184 cases and 4 deaths. 
Seriously?

I could go on and on. This is going to get more interesting as it goes.

For the last week or so, new cases have been staring to  exceed 16,000 per day.



 

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Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[chuck]

I still believe North Korea has a huge problem that they are covering up.  
Especially in the labor camps.  Communal sleeping barns etc.  No sanitation 
facilities.  

From: Bill Prince 
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:34 PM
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

Only if they attribute it properly. There is plenty of data to indicate that 
deaths have been incorrectly attributed,


bp


On 3/19/2020 11:09 AM, James Howard wrote:

  the death count is the death count



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Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Bill Prince]

  
  
Only if they attribute it properly. There is plenty of data to
  indicate that deaths have been incorrectly attributed,

bp



On 3/19/2020 11:09 AM, James Howard
  wrote:


the death count is the death count
  


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Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Jaime Solorza]

No matter if they try to hide the numbers, once the bodies start piling up,
reality will rear it's ugly head.
There is empirical data from a web-based thermometer company that is
tracking fevers not related to flu...they have been telling CDC about it...
Hey Inept Administration , fucking do something!

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020, 12:03 PM Bill Prince  wrote:

> As this whole COVID-19 thing evolves, there are emerging numerous
> anomalies WRT cases vs population vs deaths.
>
> At this point, it looks like Italy (population 60 million) has the highest
> per capita cases and deaths (35,713 cases, 2,978 deaths). In a few days,
> their fatality rate will exceed China's).
>
> The US is an outlier with a population of 360 million, yet only 10,755
> cases, and only 154 deaths. This is probably a massive under-count driven
> by the lack of testing.
>
> Russia with a population of 140 million has had only 199 cases and 1
> death. Does anyone think this is real?
>
> India with a population of 1.3 billion has had only 184 cases and 4
> deaths. Seriously?
>
> I could go on and on. This is going to get more interesting as it goes.
>
> For the last week or so, new cases have been staring to  exceed 16,000 per
> day.
>
>
> --
>
> bp
> 
>
>
> --
> AF mailing list
> AF@af.afmug.com
> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>
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Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Jason McKemie]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says


On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:03 PM Bill Prince  wrote:

> As this whole COVID-19 thing evolves, there are emerging numerous
> anomalies WRT cases vs population vs deaths.
>
> At this point, it looks like Italy (population 60 million) has the highest
> per capita cases and deaths (35,713 cases, 2,978 deaths). In a few days,
> their fatality rate will exceed China's).
>
> The US is an outlier with a population of 360 million, yet only 10,755
> cases, and only 154 deaths. This is probably a massive under-count driven
> by the lack of testing.
>
> Russia with a population of 140 million has had only 199 cases and 1
> death. Does anyone think this is real?
>
> India with a population of 1.3 billion has had only 184 cases and 4
> deaths. Seriously?
>
> I could go on and on. This is going to get more interesting as it goes.
>
> For the last week or so, new cases have been staring to  exceed 16,000 per
> day.
>
>
> --
>
> bp
> 
>
>
> --
> AF mailing list
> AF@af.afmug.com
> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>
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Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[Steven Kenney]

If Chinas numbers are even 50% accurate my name is Orville Reddenbocker. 

-- 
Steven Kenney 
Network Operations Manager 
WaveDirect Telecommunications 
http://www.wavedirect.net 
(519)737-WAVE (9283) 


From: "James Howard"  
To: "af"  
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:09:09 PM 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies 



Italy passed China today. The current death count in Italy is now 3405 vs 3245 
in China. Italy also has 33,190 active cases vs 7263 currently active in China. 



The US is probably under count as far as active and resolved cases but the 
death count is the death count. If there were more deaths that could be 
attributed to this in the US they would do that since it might actually get 
people to be more compliant with the restrictions in place. 




From: AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] On Behalf Of Bill Prince 
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 1:03 PM 
To: AFMUG  
Subject: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies 




As this whole COVID-19 thing evolves, there are emerging numerous anomalies WRT 
cases vs population vs deaths. 

At this point, it looks like Italy (population 60 million) has the highest per 
capita cases and deaths (35,713 cases, 2,978 deaths). In a few days, their 
fatality rate will exceed China's). 

The US is an outlier with a population of 360 million, yet only 10,755 cases, 
and only 154 deaths. This is probably a massive under-count driven by the lack 
of testing. 

Russia with a population of 140 million has had only 199 cases and 1 death. 
Does anyone think this is real? 

India with a population of 1.3 billion has had only 184 cases and 4 deaths. 
Seriously? 

I could go on and on. This is going to get more interesting as it goes. 

For the last week or so, new cases have been staring to exceed 16,000 per day. 




-- 
bp 
 



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Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies

[James Howard]

Italy passed China today.  The current death count in Italy is now 3405 vs 3245 
in China.  Italy also has 33,190 active cases vs 7263 currently active in China.

The US is probably under count as far as active and resolved cases but the 
death count is the death count.  If there were more deaths that could be 
attributed to this in the US they would do that since it might actually get 
people to be more compliant with the restrictions in place.

From: AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] On Behalf Of Bill Prince
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 1:03 PM
To: AFMUG 
Subject: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies


As this whole COVID-19 thing evolves, there are emerging numerous anomalies WRT 
cases vs population vs deaths.

At this point, it looks like Italy (population 60 million) has the highest per 
capita cases and deaths (35,713 cases, 2,978 deaths). In a few days, their 
fatality rate will exceed China's).

The US is an outlier with a population of 360 million, yet only 10,755 cases, 
and only 154 deaths. This is probably a massive under-count driven by the lack 
of testing.

Russia with a population of 140 million has had only 199 cases and 1 death. 
Does anyone think this is real?

India with a population of 1.3 billion has had only 184 cases and 4 deaths. 
Seriously?

I could go on and on. This is going to get more interesting as it goes.

For the last week or so, new cases have been staring to  exceed 16,000 per day.
[cid:image001.png@01D5FDEF.7A1204F0]



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